2023 Storms

The National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories for Tropical Storm Bret on Monday, and we’re also tracking a second system not far behind that likely will also become a named storm. Both of these systems have formed in the “main development region” of the Atlantic where tropical systems often begin their lifetimes. However, the season for storm formation in the main development region typically does not kick off until August.

So what’s happening out there? Well, it’s blazing hot.

Ben Noll, a New Zealand meteorologist, noted on Monday that sea surface temperatures in the main development region are the warmest they’ve been on record for June. In fact, the seas are as warm now as they typically are in late August or September, when the Atlantic hurricane starts to peak. That’s one reason why we’re seeing a spate of early season activity.

A second chart from Ben is equally concerning, as it shows temperatures in this region presently exceeding those of the 2005 and 2010 Atlantic hurricane seasons, both of which produced frenetic activity. The 2005 season remains the most active year in my lifetime, and Gulf Coast residents will doubtlessly remember Katrina, Rita, and Wilma all reaching Category 5 status in the Gulf of Mexico.

Warm seas are not the only factor in storm formation, of course. This year, with El Niño in the Pacific, we can have some hope that wind shear will counteract the formation of storms. But worryingly, so far, warm seas appear to be winning out against El Niño. I have to say that I am starting to get mildly concerned about what is to come this year, particularly in August and September.

One-sentence summary

We’re tracking Tropical Storm Brett as well as Invest 93L, which has been given an 80 percent chance of developing this week into a depression or named storms in the coming days.

Happening now: The stage is set for Bret, with a possible encore

Here’s what we know about the two tropical systems out there.

Tropical Storm Bret

First of all, with apologies to fans of George Brett, this system has just one “t.” After forming on Monday the storm has changed little in intensity overnight, with sustained winds of 40 mph. This is likely due to some moderate wind shear nearby. Not enough to break the storm apart, but enough to keep its organization at bay.

The system has about three days to get its act together before shear is expected to increase, in which case Bret should start to weaken. At present the National Hurricane Center brings Bret to hurricane strength briefly, before winding it back down on Thursday night as it approaches the Lesser Antilles islands in the Caribbean Sea.

No one wants to see a tropical storm headed their way, and Bret is something that people in the Caribbean Islands, including Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba will want to keep an eye on. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are definitely possible with Bret later this week or weekend, although I don’t think we’re looking at a situation where this storm really blows up. My biggest concern is flooding, but it’s not really possible to say where the heaviest rain will occur. We should have a better handle on the overall threat tomorrow morning.

Invest 93L

Much like its predecessor, Bret, how well this tropical system gets organized is tied up with where it goes, with a better organized disturbance likely turning northwest before the Caribbean and a less organized one likely following 92L to the west and into the islands. For now the most likely outcome, I believe, is that this system turns north before reaching the Caribbean Sea. That would be best for all concerned, except maybe for the fish.

The medium range (days 6-10): And then there were three?

As Matt noted on Monday, there are some signs in the models that yet another disturbance will emerge off Africa soon, and that this may be something that could develop over the weekend or next week. However the models don’t appear too excited about this system becoming a big deal, likely due to a fairly uninviting environment overall for development. Certainly at The Eyewall we’re rooting for shear to have its day.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Possibly calmer to end June

After this present spate of activity, the overall tropics may turn a bit quieter to end the month and start July.

Hopefully?

Good morning, and welcome again to The Eyewall, where we provide hype-free, measured coverage of the Atlantic tropics all season long.

Today, we wake up to Tropical Depression 2 in the Gulf no better organized than it was yesterday evening, and struggling somewhat. TD 2 itself is more of a meteorological curiosity than anything else, although heavy rain continues to be possible in portions of the Florida Peninsula.

One-sentence summary

Tropical Depression 2 is expected to drift south toward Cuba and dissipate this weekend, and although it may still technically attain tropical storm status and will aid in Florida storms, it is not a direct threat to anyone.

All things Tropical Depression 2: Meteorological curiosities and rain in Florida

Again, the system itself is not really an issue for anyone. It’s fairly weak and over open water. From the satellite loop above, you can actually sort of see the center of TD 2, exposed to the south and west of the green-yellow-orange colors, which are thunderstorms south of the Panhandle. That’s an indication of an unhealthy, sheared system. As visible satellite imagery becomes available today, we may see this enter “naked swirl” territory (where the center is completely displaced from any storms). Still, per the National Hurricane Center 4 AM CT discussion, TD 2 may technically be close to being a tropical storm. All you need is an area of 34 knot (39 mph) sustained wind to technically classify it, hence this is mostly a meteorological curiosity at this point.

At a high level, the forecast track for TD2 is mostly unchanged versus yesterday. It drifts south in the Gulf before dissipating near Cuba on Sunday.

Several of you have mentioned, “You know, that’s a bizarre track. Is that normal?” The answer is “No, it’s not technically normal.” It is certainly funky, but often (especially in early season), storms can take these weird tracks. All tropical storm tracks are generally a function of the environment around them. And if we look about 20,000 feet (at what meteorologists call the 500 mb level) over our heads at what’s happening, it becomes fairly clear to see why TD 2 takes this type of track.

The red “L” in the middle of the map, which is a forecast of 500 mb vorticity this afternoon is the approximate location of TD 2. The pattern features strong northerly or northwesterly winds which help to direct the western portion of TD 2’s broader circulation south. Steering currents over Florida and Georgia are fairly weak, so there’s little influence from there, hence all this northerly push pretty much forces TD 2 southward. Winds out of the southwest across Cuba and into the Bahamas help to give it that little eastern turn late, but of course by then, it will have pretty much dissipated.

So, TD 2 is not a direct threat to any land, but the convoluted pattern around the system will help to continue aiding rainfall in parts of Florida today. Flood watches continue for the southeast coast, from Miami-Dade through Palm Beach Counties and around Lake Okeechobee. Over the last three days there have been isolated spots seeing in excess of 3 to 5 inches of rain.

Because of this, and because of the potential that some showers and storms could produce a few more inches of rain and lead to flash flooding, the flood watch continues.

Not all of South Florida will see heavy rain, but some will today and perhaps even Saturday too before things start to return to normal next week and TD 2 experiences its demise.

Medium range (days 6 through 10): Nothing doing

The day 6 through 10 period looks pretty quiet. I would expect the majority of the basin will be covered by decent wind shear, which acts to limit storm development. In addition, it looks like we’re in an unfavorable upper level pattern overall, with more sinking air across the basin as well. It is June, after all, so that shouldn’t come as a surprise.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Also quiet

This quiet will probably extend firmly through mid-June and possibly (hopefully?) into late June. Nothing is showing up in the long range that should ruffle any feathers right now.

We’ll be back tomorrow with a quick update on TD 2. Look for our normal daily update on Monday morning, where we’ll tackle what is normal for June as the season begins.