November 14, 2023 Outlook: South Florida flooding risks increase on Wednesday, while a separate Caribbean system makes a brief attempt to develop

One-sentence summary

Two separate systems are on the board, with one (non-tropical system) bringing heavy rain to Florida tomorrow and then heading off to the north, while another disturbance in the Caribbean has a chance to form before racing past Jamaica, Cuba, and Hispaniola later this week or weekend.

Florida flooding: Metro South Florida at risk for considerable flash flooding on Wednesday

Just a quick update this evening on what’s happening in the world of weather, and we’ll start in Florida. Areas just north of Miami have seen some heavy rainfall today, with two bullseyes of 4 inches or more, the first near Davie and the other around Pompano Beach, where over 5 inches has fallen.

Click to enlarge for impressive rain totals today north of Miami and west of Fort Lauderdale. (NOAA/RadarScope)

As showers diminish tonight, a quiet period will unfold before another, more widespread round of rain and storms tomorrow. This one will be capable of significant rain totals in excess of 4 to 6 inches to as much as 8 inches or even more tomorrow for parts of coastal, urban South Florida. Because of this, the NWS Weather Prediction Center has Miami-Dade, Broward, and portions of Palm Beach County under a moderate risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall and flooding risk on Wednesday.

A moderate risk (level 3 of 4) is posted for southeast Florida on Wednesday, as repeated rounds of heavy rainfall are possible, leading to more significant urban flooding. (NOAA)

Intriguingly (and somewhat confusingly), all of this may congeal into an area of low pressure off Florida’s east coast that has a low (albeit not zero) chance of developing into a tropical system as it races north and east. This is *not* the same system we’re watching in the Caribbean, but this one may produce a nor’easter type impact in eastern New England or Atlantic Canada by the weekend, including a chance of heavy snow on the back side of the storm for portions of Quebec, New Brunswick, or northern Maine.

Heavy snow is possible in portions of northern Maine and eastern Canada on the backside of this developing storm near Florida, as it comes north this weekend. (NOAA)

Tropical Update: Caribbean development remains possible later this week

Meanwhile, we continue to see at least the chance that a late season tropical system will form later this week in the Caribbean. The good news is that both the GFS and European model have tended to reduce the odds of anything significant developing.

Disorganized thunderstorms in the southwest Caribbean may develop into an organized system before it races north and northeast out to sea by the weekend. (

So what was already a low chance of a significant storm is now quite low. Certainly heavy rain is possible, if not likely across the Caribbean, but getting this thing to depression status or even TS Vince, will take some effort. Can it get there? Sure, but I’m not sure it’s the most likely outcome. Regardless, interests in the central and western Caribbean should continue to monitor this thing until it passes.