A quiet weekend for us, but some hints of development in the Atlantic next week

Headlines

  • Quiet for the next 5 days in the Atlantic.
  • Continuing to watch a potential tropical wave later next week in the Western Atlantic.

Watching the next wave

Hello from 35,000 feet! Just scoping out the atmosphere on my way back to the Gulf Coast. Anyway, let’s take a look at what’s doing in the tropics heading into another summer weekend

The National Hurricane Center has a clean outlook map for the next 7 days across the Atlantic. There has been some noise coming from some models for this wave in the far eastern Atlantic today.

A tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic off Africa is getting some models enthused about tropical development later next week. (RadarScope)

The wave is currently in an atmosphere that is dominated by dust. Or at least the road in front of it is. As the wave approaches the Caribbean or southwest Atlantic later next week, it will have some dry air to fend off. The forecast from last night’s European model shows this rather well. I’m using this to illustrate what the environment may be like when it gets to that general location, not where I think it will specifically be or what it will exactly look like. So take this with a grain of salt. Or Saharan dust.

A look at where the eastern Atlantic wave could be next week, primarily focusing on the environment it’s in. Dry air and at least some wind shear will likely be in place. (Tropical Tidbits)

So yeah, this probably bears a bit of watching. But there is nothing to say that this will definitely develop into something yet. Ensemble support for this is growing somewhat, though again, no models really shoot this to the moon yet. Still, with a tropical wave in a marginally favorable environment in early August, I will at least continue to watch this.

Ensemble modeling from the Euro model earlier this morning shows lukewarm but meaningful support for something existing in the western Atlantic later next week. We will watch. (Weathernerds.org)

Outside of that, we continue to watch for the August increase. There are no other specific concerns we see at this time. Let’s check back in on this tomorrow or Sunday.

7 thoughts on “A quiet weekend for us, but some hints of development in the Atlantic next week”

  2. I was hoping we’d at least have until early Aug before this mess starts up again.

    So glad the Eyewall/Matt/Eric is/are with us.

    Incredible psycho-metero support. Fulfilling a new niche we didn’t even know needed to be addressed.

    • Well, technically, the end of next week will be early August (if you can believe it). I’m hoping for our high pressure shield to be activated for a bit here.

  3. After Beryl’s “whatever is the low likelihood option is the one I’m doing” shenanigans, I’m approaching this season with the thought that all options are highly likely.

  4. Wow I’m sure hoping that the GFS modeling this evening is wrong.

    Normally I’d just blow it off but it’s hard to shake. It seems like too/two much.

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