We shall spend our waning summer days watching Invest 96L try to navigate hurdles in the Atlantic

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In brief: Invests 95L and 96L have our attention in the Atlantic, though 95 is no threat to anyone, and 96 probably isn’t a threat either. That said, we take a deeper look at 96L and its future over the next week or so.

Watching the Atlantic right now is like putting a towel back in the drier and discovering it’s still damp. It’s not boring like watching paint dry. It’s just kind of frustrating. Are we going to get there? I mean, no one will complain if we don’t. But at this point, every disturbance that makes a go of it over the Atlantic thinks they’re evil Anakin Skywalker. “I’m a big, bad tropical wave. You want to stop me?”

Of course, it didn’t exactly end well for Anakin, and it probably won’t end well for most of these disturbances. But the question is if they stir something up in the interim.

Invest 95L

The disturbance east of Bermuda looked like it wanted to have a go at times. But thus far it has fallen short.

Invest 95L is just a little too stretched out, and it seems like it will fall short of developing. (WeatherFront)

Will it do it today? I’m doubtful. It has about 12 to 18 hours left to do something before it runs out of runway. And at this point, it just looks too strung out to be able to consolidate enough.

Invest 96L

Newly minted Invest 96L is the one we’re most interested in at this point.

Invest 96L is struggling a bit this morning, but its longer term prospects are modestly more interesting. (WeatherFront)

Looking at it on satellite, it’s still just a seedling of a tropical wave this morning. And over the next couple days, it will gradually try to organize itself. It currently sits in a relatively modest shear environment, though there is a bit of drier air nearby. So by no means will this organize swiftly.

Google Deep Mind’s operational ensemble has no interest in Invest 96L. (Google)

Models have mostly held their positions since yesterday. It does seem like the European model’s AIFS is a little less enthused today. And Google’s Deep Mind operational ensemble is totally uninterested. The tropical models are a little bit more bulled up but even they’re quite mixed. On the whole, we’re basically in the same spot we were 24 hours ago, so I won’t belabor the point. Odds of development around 60 to 70 percent, though generous aren’t unreasonable. But we aren’t anywhere over that right now.

The AIFS ensemble is weak but also a little more engaged with the possibility of Invest 96L trying to organize over the next week. (Polarwx.com)

In terms of the future track of 96L, be it as a remnant tropical wave or as a nascent system, its future will initially be dictated by the Bermuda high, which will build west across the Atlantic as 96L moves west, keeping on a westerly or west-northwesterly course through at least Saturday or Sunday.

Over the next 5 days, the Bermuda high will expand west across the Atlantic, allowing 96L to stay in the MDR while it moves west or west-northwest. (Tropical Tidbits)

Where is the Bermuda high? Look at the big 597 bullseye over the open Atlantic. Thereafter, if 96L is weak, it may end up buried in the Caribbean, likely left to perish or track closer to the Antilles and Puerto Rico, where it still would face an uphill battle. If 96L is moderate, it would likely “feel” an expected weakening Bermuda high after Sunday (just after this model loop ends) and turn northwest and north fairly quickly, likely heading out into the open Atlantic. Neither scenario should get anyone too worked up right now, but we’ll keep an eye on things through the week and see how it all progresses. It’s late August. You never take anything for granted this time of year.

Beyond 96L

Anything else? Nothing specific at this time. There is model noise, as there always is this time of year, even in strong El Niño events. But I can’t really point to any specific disturbance beyond Invest 96L to home in on right now.

I suppose if you want to look for some intrigue, the Pacific is where you’d go. The NHC has seven disturbances on the board, be they active or in the outlook. The area with a 90% chance of development may be the most intriguing.

Google Deep Mind is pretty aggressive with the next possible Pacific system, though most members keep it out at sea, as do most other models. (Google)

While most modeling kicks it west across the Pacific, there is a small subset that does try to lift this northward in time. If that happens, we could see some remnant moisture end up in the Southwest. That would not necessarily be a bad thing, as the monsoon has been fairly disappointing in many areas so far this year. But I would not exactly get my hopes up yet in the desert.

Will anything get going in the Atlantic this time around?

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In brief: The Atlantic is getting a little busier, but whether anything can legitimately organize is an open question. Plus, we talk about a historic summer in southern New England, the ongoing El Niño hype, and Hawaii today.

Apologies for not posting the last couple days. I’ve actually been working on some new stuff I hope we can use on our sister site, Space City Weather in the coming weeks. If I’m lucky, it will have application here too. Either way, progress on new things!

Atlantic business time?

The Euro, Euro AI, and GFS ensemble have had mid-2000s Flight of the Conchords on repeat, because to them, it’s just about business time in the Atlantic. We have two disturbances worth monitoring. Whether either develops remains to be seen.

Two disturbances with about 50/50 chances to organize. (WeatherFront)

The first and most time-sensitive area is Invest 95L, which is located southeast of Bermuda. This one should be no threat to land, including Bermuda at this point. The question is whether it has time enough to organize. I’m leaning no on this one, and if it does form, it won’t get much past depression or very, very weak tropical storm status. This one would be classified as a “throwaway” storm, one that gets a name, tacks on a smidge of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), and dissipates almost as fast as it forms. Sort of like Cristobal.

The more notable area to watch is the wave emerging off Africa today. The NHC tags this one with a 50 percent chance of development. We again see this rather curious split where Google’s Deep Mind model is not at all enthused, while the global model suite and European AI model all want to slowly develop this over the next 5 to 7 days.

Of the 1,000 members in Google’s larger Deep Mind ensemble, about 16 percent develop the wave off Africa. (tcatlas.org)

Google’s model has done very good this year at tempering expectations, whereas the globals have had their share of false alarms. That means something. And in this case, it would be sensible to keep our expectations low with respect to this system.

At least half of the AIFS ensemble members develop the disturbance, though this model has been rather aggressive with the genesis of storms so far this summer. (Weathernerds.org)

A couple notes about this one. First, it’s going to be moving west at a pretty good clip to start. This may disrupt the initial organization somewhat. Second, as it approaches the Caribbean, it appears that the Bermuda high is going to expand westward with it, meaning it may not turn north as quick as some other modeled systems have looked over the last couple weeks. However, the Bermuda high may begin to break down and retreat again next weekend allowing this disturbance to begin to gain latitude and probably turn north and northeast out to sea, but it’s something we’ll keep tabs on.

Again, the environment around the disturbance will probably feature some degree of wind shear and dry, stable air, so we’d classify the development chances as “marginally conducive” at best right now. The El Niño has not gone (and will not go) anywhere, so the root problems remain for systems trying to develop. We’ll keep watch, but again, low expectations here.

Other notes

Speaking of El Niño, if you start seeing strongly worded headlines, contrary to what we usually tell you here, believe them. The hype here is warranted to a point. This is far and away on the way to becoming the strongest El Niño we’ve seen in modern history. What it means for your day to day is obviously more nuanced than a headline or even we can tell you. But the usual El Niño hallmarks will be amplified in the months ahead. Here in the U.S., that means folks on the coasts will want to pay particular attention, as it will likely get stormy heading into fall and winter. Buckle up, California.

Typical generic global impacts of El Niño (NOAA)

And speaking of the coasts… I gotta tell you, since moving to Connecticut last month, it reminds me of Houston. We’ve had north of 10 inches of rain over the last month, and in fact, Bridgeport, CT has a new record for summer rainfall: 2.35″ yesterday puts them at 21.20″ for Summer 2026, surpassing the summer of 1972 (of Hurricane Agnes fame) for wettest summer on record. Impressive to do this without a remnant tropical system.

Since July 1st, it has been soggy as can be from southern New England back into Ohio. (High Plains Regional Climate Center)

Southern Connecticut and Long Island have seen north of 200% of normal rainfall since the beginning of July. Islip is sitting at their 9th wettest summer on record. Another half-inch to inch or so may fall before we hit September, so there’s time to work up the leaderboard or pad the stats some more. Wet, y’all!

Hawaii escapes Moke

Most gauges on the Big Island of Hawaii have been calm with Tropical Storm Moke passing well to the south of Hawaii. Still, some heavy rain has fallen in a few spots.

About 1 to 3 inches with a couple higher amounts in areas without gauges occurred in the higher terrain of the Big Island over the last 48 hours. (NOAA)

And a flood watch remains in effect through Monday afternoon. Thankfully not as bad as it could have been.

A little to watch in the Atlantic, while Hawaii may see another storm this weekend

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In brief: A couple tropical waves will emerge off Africa in the coming days, with some at least a little risk of development as they push across the Atlantic. Meanwhile, Hawaii may be faced with another tropical storm by the weekend, along with heavy rainfall.

Happy Thursday. Trying not to inundate your inbox all week with mostly a repetitive outlook, hence why we were dark yesterday and Tuesday. But let’s check in on things today and see what has changed. The answer is not a ton. That said, we do have a couple things to watch.

Atlantic waves

We have two tropical waves over interior Africa. One will emerge today. The second is expected to emerge in the Atlantic by about Monday or early Tuesday. There seems to be a good bit of model agreement that the first one will fizzle but the second one has a chance to try to organize. I wouldn’t be shocked to see this area flagged on NHC outlooks by tomorrow. (There will be a third system in the open Atlantic but we’ll conveniently ignore that one for the time being)

The next couple tropical waves off Africa. Wave #2 is the most interesting. (WeatherFront)

That said, as we saw last week, there can be a fair bit of model support for something to happen and it never happens. We’ve seen that more than once over the last 2 to 3 seasons. The last go around last week saw Google’s Deep Mind operational model correctly be unenthused about tropical development. This go around? Well, there’s at least a little there there.

The second tropical wave off Africa may make a slight attempt at developing next week. (Google Weather Lab)

The overall weather pattern off Africa next week suggests that we’ll see a good bit of dry air, especially north of the waves. The first one will probably fall prey to this, and development odds seem quite low. The second one has at least some chance to fend the dry air off for a bit. We’ll also have a modest amount of wind shear around. The combination? It may be enough to allow for some slow development and also cap the system at a lower ceiling of potential intensity. Indeed, very few ensemble models, even on some of the more aggressive models intensify any potential system much.

Obviously, we’re getting a little ahead of our skis here going out a week and trying to predict the environment of a system that has yet to even emerge off Africa. Whatever the case, it is something to watch. But it is probably not going to amount to much. Model agreement is also good that we’ll see this system eventually turn northwest or north in the open Atlantic, meaning it probably won’t impact land. Again, it’s a ways out, so we’ll keep tabs on this for the time being.

Aside from that, there is nothing else notable in the Atlantic for the next week or more.

Hawaii again?

As Hawaii continues to recover from Lala, the next system to at least keep tabs on is in the wings. Invest 90E is a disturbance about 1,000 miles southeast of the islands. Most modeling keeps this system on the weaker side (unlike Lala which most had forecast to be a hurricane when it approached Hawaii). Google’s operational ensemble only has about 20 percent of members actually developing this. However, some prior iterations of GDM and some of the other AI modeling is more aggressive here.

Google’s 1,000 member ensemble likes development of Invest 90E. (tcatlas.org)

Even Google’s 1,000 member ensemble is pretty aggressive with things. So for a storm that’s likely to impact the islands this weekend, we have uncomfortably high disagreement among modeling. Whatever the case, another round of potentially heavy rainfall and gusty winds is a plausible outcome for some of the same areas impacted by Hurricane Lala. While it’s impossible to really pin down the specifics yet, a 5 to 10 inch type rainfall is a possibility in some of the eastern/southern facing slopes of the Big Island and Maui. More to come on this one tomorrow.

Groundhog Day in the Atlantic with mercifully quiet conditions continuing

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In brief: Hurricane Lala did quite a number on Hawaii, and we review some of the numbers. Meanwhile, the Atlantic basin remains mostly void of anything interesting, as we officially begin the peak 45 days or so of hurricane season.

Lala wrap-up

I won’t delve too much into the actual impacts to Hawaii, but as of this morning, roughly 115,000 customers remain without power across the islands, which is down a good bit since yesterday. For the latest on impacts across the islands, check the coverage at Honolulu Civil Beat or the Hawaii Tribune-Herald. Meteorologically, what played out was indeed fascinating.

Big Island rain totals. (NOAA)

Over 37 inches of rain was reported on the south end of the Big Island, at Nene Cabin, which is on the upslope of Mauna Loa reportedly at over 6,000 feet of elevation. Downwind, in the rain shadow of Mauna Loa? Under 1.5 inches of rain fell near Captain Cook. Incredible rain shadowing. Either way, the totals were impressive. On Maui, on the upslope of Haleakalā, over 24 inches fell at Waikamoi.

Maui rain totals. (NOAA)

Similar impressive rain shadowing occurred there. Honolulu didn’t see much rain, but the mountains got hammered. Same story on the other islands as well.

Oahu rain totals. (NOAA)

In terms of wind, peak gusts topped out around 70 to 90 mph in the higher terrain from Oahu through the Big Island. A fair bit of wind also occurred at lower elevations, as evidenced by the number of outages, but they were not quite as potent as what we saw in the mountains.

A sampling of peak wind gusts during Lala. (NOAA)

Lala will be a memorable storm for Hawaii, though certainly not the worst they’ve seen.

Atlantic on lockdown

Back in the Atlantic basin, it’s been a little busier this month, with Cristobal and a couple invests, but both of those invests are now off the board. A look at the Atlantic this morning tells us, well, not much. It’s dead quiet, with the exception of the next robust wave emerging off Africa.

Thunderstorms about to emerge off Africa for the next tropical wave to watch. (WeatherFront)

This one is likely to meet the same fate as its predecessors. The one behind it seems destined to reach invest status eventually, but the models are in good disagreement on development, with both the Euro ensemble and Euro AIFS trying to do something with it by late this week. Google’s Deep Mind is unimpressed. I would not be expecting much from these waves. They seem destined to eventually extinguish.

We’re now officially entering the peak of hurricane season. From now through about October 7th, the Atlantic basin climatology adds about 1 unit of ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) per day, taking us from around 15 units of ACE to 102 units. In other words, this is the window you historically see the bulk of hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin.

(NOAA/NHC)

With El Niño, and a near-record one at that, the equation changes and “bulk of hurricane activity” tends to have a different, lower adjusted meaning. We are already seeing plentiful signs that El Niño is influencing hurricane season, and there’s absolutely no reason to expect change. Looking ahead to next week, the European model’s 45-day outlook continues to show below normal Atlantic activity.

Next week should see below average activity continue. (ECMWF)

Subsequent weeks? Much the same. And keep in mind that the European model has tended to be a little overzealous with recent tropical waves. So 40 percent of normal ACE the next 2 to 3 weeks may be generous.

Whatever the case, we shall see where this all goes. But for now, calm remains the word across the Atlantic.