The Eyewall

Looking into the Cristobal for Invest 92L and 94L’s future and the latest for Hawaii

August 13, 2026 at 9:21 amAugust 13, 2026 at 9:21 am by Matt Lanza

In brief: The Atlantic tropics remain noisy but not exactly substantive. Invests 92L and 94L are both expected to attempt to develop but likely struggle. Meanwhile, Hawaii should prepare for a tropical storm impact this weekend.

Atlantic side of business

In yesterday’s post we noted that, “there’s another system in the far north Atlantic that is not a threat to land, but we could see a throwaway depression or “C” storm before it dissipates.” Indeed, if you blinked, you may have missed that Tropical Storm Cristobal formed yesterday, and is on the way to dissipating today.

It appears as a “naked swirl,” or something more out of Cinnabon’s test kitchen. I’m just saying. Cristobal has thus far matched Arthur in ACE, which is to say less than 1, which is to say, basically a rounding error in a typical season. But weak storms count too, so there you have it.

Invest 92L

Meanwhile, south of Cristobal in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) remains Invest 92L, a somewhat healthier looking tropical disturbance today.

92L isn’t exactly well organized but it’s better than it looked 24 hours ago. Models remain sort of split on whether or not this gets to a point if it actually develops, but given the look this morning, my hunch is that it will find a way. Still, wind shear is currently an issue, especially just north of the disturbance. And models are in decent agreement that it’s unlikely to pass much farther along than tropical depression status, keeping it generally poorly organized. This should allow for a due west track into the Caribbean, where doom awaits 92L’s future.

Invest 92L may become a depression before moving into the Windward or southern Leeward Islands this weekend. (Weathernerds.org)

For the islands, this looks like a bit of a rainmaker but not much beyond that. Once in the Caribbean, it will be greeted by another shot of 20 to 30 knots of wind shear to the face, which should shred it apart. At this point, we don’t really expect any remnant to track as it continues west, so for the Gulf and western Caribbean, this is probably nothing to be worried about. We’ll obviously let you know if that changes.

Invest 94L

To the east of 92L is our latest Invest, 94L. While 94L looks less impressive than 92L this morning, it is carrying some thunderstorms, and it may be more apt to develop, as 92L has helped “seed” the lane in front of 94L with added moisture. It, too will have ample wind shear to fend off, however. The Atlantic is not for the weary of tropical systems right now. If 94L can survive that with some structure in tact, it may have a better long-term prognosis than its partner to the west.

Assuming it survives, it may begin to develop a bit more east of the islands. Otherwise, it is likely to meet a somewhat similar fate to Invest 92L. If it does develop, it will likely hook northwest and north into the open Atlantic. Currently, about 20 percent of reasonably decent ensemble members do this. And within the tropical models, the majority keep 94L below tropical storm intensity.

Forecast models are not bullish on Invest 94L’s future intensity. (Tropical Tidbits)

Conditions appear hostile overall, but it’s possible we sneak a depression out of this perhaps.

Right now, we just aren’t seeing the setup required to generate meaningful, higher end tropical activity. This is what was expected this summer, and it appears that’s what we’re getting.

Pacific potential

A good news/bad news type situation setting up for Hawaii. The good news is that it does not appear that Invest 93C, which has been reclassified as Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C is going to be a big time hurricane as it passes Hawaii. The bad news is that we do expect tropical storm impacts in Hawaii by this weekend.

The system is struggling to organize initially because of its sprawling nature. Over the next day or so, we should see it begin to consolidate around a formal center and slowly organize. Modeling is in decent agreement in a track near or just south of the Big Island, as well as slow, steady intensification. This should allow for a moderate tropical storm to track near Hawaii on Saturday. We should see tropical storm watches issued later today.

Rain totals from the European operational model show as much as 10 inches of rain or even more on parts of the Big Island and high amounts on Maui as well. (WeatherFront)

The European model has a track fairly close to the NHC’s track right now, just south of the Big Island. This allows for 10 inches or more of rain on the east and southeast facing slopes, with downwind rain shadowing lowering amounts to an inch or so on the northwest edge of the island. A similar story on Maui. These amounts may change in the coming days as the storm track and organization is finalized. This will increase the risk of flooding and mudslides on the Big Island this weekend.

Obviously, winds will be a concern too and will be honed in on as we get a bit closer. Some wind speeds could be enough to cause some damage in localized parts of the islands pending terrain effects. And fire weather may tick up as a concern tomorrow ahead of the storm. Interests in Hawaii should find local sources and follow them and heed the advice of local officials ahead of this storm.

Middling Atlantic waves create some development chances, while Hawaii should be impacted this weekend by a system

August 12, 2026 at 8:19 amAugust 12, 2026 at 8:19 am by Matt Lanza

In brief: Invest 92L in the Atlantic is struggling to organize and it likely is en route to eventually dying off in the Caribbean. Behind 92L, another system has some development chances as well heading toward next week. And in Hawaii, folks should continue monitoring Invest 93C, which should become a depression or storm today or tomorrow, approaching Hawaii this weekend as a tropical storm or perhaps lower-end hurricane.

A sorta busyish Atlantic

We are now up to about an 80 percent chance of development in the Atlantic today from the tropical wave we’ve been watching. It’s been tagged as Invest 92L as well, so we get more things to watch on it as it moves. Satellite tells you that this system is not exactly crushing it this morning.

Satellite view of Invest 92L Wednesday AM. (WeatherFront)

Despite the lack of meaningful storms, there is a definitive “twist” to the disturbance right now, so it’s getting somewhere.

I would expect we see a depression out of this within a day or so.

The environment surrounding Invest 92L is not exactly ideal. While the system itself is somewhat cocooned in a small area, it has to deal with significant wind shear just north and on the southeast flank, as well as oodles of Saharan dust immediately north. Basically, there is going to be a functional limit on this system’s intensity because even if it does grow, it will immediately “feel” the shear and dry air more aggressively.

So what does that mean going forward? Well, Invest 92L, whatever it is, should be approaching the Lesser Antilles in about 3 to 4 days. As it gets there, it will have a couple choices. Either go north out to sea through a weakness in high pressure in the Atlantic, or continue west into the gauntlet that is the highly sheared Caribbean.

Upper air pattern look from European model on Saturday showing Invest 92L approaching the islands. (WeatherFront)

When dealing with tropics, we usually have a rule that goes “weaker west.” In other words, if 92L struggles, it will likely just keeping plodding west into the Caribbean. At that point, it would almost certainly succumb to wind shear, and that’d be that. If 92L can get a modest organization together, it would be more apt to “feel” the weakness in between the areas of high pressure in the Atlantic, the escape hatch if you will. In that case, it would likely turn north and probably end up heading out to sea. I think the smart money is to the west into the Caribbean.

Note, behind 92L is another tropical wave. You can see it on that Euro model depiction above. This one is currently flagged with 30% development odds. At this point, modeling seems to be very mixed on the future of this system. The AIFS and Euro are a little more excited, whereas Google’s modeling (both operational and the 1,000 member ensemble) are lukewarm.

The AIFS ensemble is above, and if you live on the East Coast, you’re probably looking at that and saying, “Um.” But the reality is a.) I’m not sure we even get to this point yet. And b.) This assumes the next wave even develops at all. The overall pattern is supportive of keeping any storm tracking north into the Atlantic out at sea, so if I live on the coast, I wouldn’t be sweating either of these waves right now. We’ll keep you posted.

There’s another system in the far north Atlantic that is not a threat to land, but we could see a throwaway depression or “C” storm before it dissipates.

Hawaii risks?

Shifting into the Pacific, we continue to track Invest 93C. Odds of development of this system remain high, but admittedly, it has been sluggish to really get going. This is decent news for Hawaii.

Invest 93C (to the east is Invest 99E as well) is slowly organizing just east of Hawaii. (WeatherFront)

What to make of this? Well, the system itself is trying to get organized near that little red “x” on the image above. It looks close to maybe becoming a depression, so we’ll see we get that today. We are about 4 days out from Hawaii impacts. Over the last couple days, the upper end intensity of this disturbance seems to have faded a bit in the modeling. It is having to fight off a good deal of shear, but that should ease up in the next couple days. Likely, we see a depression, then tropical storm by tomorrow or Friday. As it approaches Hawaii this weekend, we should expect some degree of heavy rain, flash flooding, and gusty, possibly damaging winds on some of the islands. There’s still ample uncertainty on the exact track and intensity, so specifics are tough to nail down.

Another potential risk is wildfire ahead of the storm as winds increase and humidity drops. This will be something to also monitor in the next couple days as this system organizes and approaches.

Atlantic development odds slowly increasing, and potential impacts from the Pacific’s 93C in Hawaii are growing

August 10, 2026 at 4:10 pmAugust 10, 2026 at 4:10 pm by Matt Lanza

In brief: We continue to track development potential in the Atlantic over the next week or so, and things remain fairly unimpressive (though plausible). In the Pacific, a system passing close to Hawaii by the weekend is a distinct possibility, and we have an update with the latest.

Atlantic MDR system

Looking at satellite this evening, and the primary disturbance we’re watching in the Atlantic looks half decent.

We haven’t seen it hit “invest” classification yet, but I imagine we are not too far off. Over the next couple days, this disturbance will have mostly modest conditions to work with. There’s some shear, some dry air. Nothing is perfect here. But it may be enough to allow the system to try to slowly organize.

Since yesterday, we have seen some weather modeling get a little more bullish on potential development from this disturbance. Google Deep Mind’s model in particular has moved to about 25 percent odds of development here.

That’s a bit under the NHC’s 60 percent odds right now, but it’s still a decent signal when combined with the also relatively bullish AIFS and European model. As noted above, any development here is likely to be sluggish. The system is likely to have to battle some degree of wind shear into the rest of this week and weekend. In addition, it’s probably going to be surrounded by dry air and Saharan dust, or at least close enough in proximity to it that it acts against development. Overall, there’s no reason to believe that over the next 3 to 5 days at least this thing gets anywhere noteworthy with intensity. Hence, we are of the mindset of slow development.

Relative humidity will be low on the north and west flanks of the Atlantic system all week, including here on Thursday morning. (Tropical Tidbits)

Once it gets closer to the islands, maybe it can shake some of the drier air off, but I’m not convinced just yet. Still, if you live in or are visiting the Lesser Antilles, it probably makes sense to keep some casual tabs on what this system does through the week. However at this time, it still does not appear that we’ll have much of a menace on our hands. Farther out in time, I’m not sure we can say much coherently about this system, short of it is unlikely to be a big storm. More to come, of course.

Other Atlantic disturbances

The National Hurricane Center has modest odds on two other areas. The 10 percent one in the central Atlantic will likely fall prey to shear and dry air soon. The 10 percent one in the northern Atlantic is unlikely to do anything either. Onward.

Hawaii & Invest 93C

Well, to Hawaii now, and Invest 93C. This one looks a little frazzled today.

Invest 93C in the Central Pacific. (WeatherFront)

That said, we don’t really expect development for another 12 to 24 hours or so. Look for this to gradually become more coherently put together by tomorrow. From there, two things have changed since yesterday. First, the track has shifted slightly farther north, now bringing more of the Big Island into the forecast envelope (especially if you look at Google Deep Mind’s model).

Invest 93C’s Google Deep Mind outlook. (tcatlas.org)

Second, the max forecast intensity has dropped off some. Fewer models and ensemble members bring this to a major hurricane now. After 75% or more yesterday, we now have about 35 percent today. While that’s a rather large move, it’s still a noteworthy, healthy minority of members and a solution that should be taken seriously. Basically, interests in Hawaii should be monitoring Invest 93C very closely. Impacts are possible as early as later Friday or Saturday.

Atlantic rumbling but not especially menacing, while Hawaii monitors Invest 93C

August 9, 2026 at 10:52 amAugust 9, 2026 at 10:52 am by Matt Lanza

In brief: A pair of disturbances in the Atlantic are highlighted for development risk over the next week or so, however neither look particularly menacing. Generally, below average activity should continue in the basin. A potentially potent storm in the Central Pacific may develop and pass just south of Hawaii later this week as well.

Atlantic picking up a bit

Back on Friday we talked about the potential for development in the Atlantic’s Main Development region as a wave pushed off the African coast. Well, as of today, the National Hurricane Center is identifying two areas to watch for development.

The front running disturbance is the one we discussed back on Friday. This one looks mediocre at best today, at least in terms of being organized.

To be honest, modeling also looks mediocre here, with roughly 0 to 10 percent of ensemble members across the board between the Euro, Euro AIFS, and Google Deep Mind showing development over the next 3 days. Generally speaking, this wave is also heading into an area with a lot of shear and dust, so the 20% odds by the NHC may be a bit generous here.

Now, the wave behind it has a little more support. While only about 10 to 20 percent of Google Deep Mind members develop this one, a fair number of Euro and AIFS ensemble members do develop it eventually. As we noted on Friday, it seems likely that any development here is likely to have a pretty low ceiling. That still holds true. The western Atlantic is not exactly super hospitable for tropical activity right now. This is more or less August being August above all else. Wind shear remains fairly strong in the western Atlantic and Caribbean.

Google Deep Mind 1,000-member ensemble guidance for potential tropical disturbance later this week. (tcatlas.org)

Note that while the intensity on the 1,000-member Google Deep Mind ensemble increases as the storm turns northward, the number of members falls to single digits, meaning roughly 1 percent of members do this; highly unlikely.

I could foresee two likely outcomes from this wave. The first would be if it follows the Euro/AIFS logic of development, where it becomes coherent in 3 to 4 days or so. In that case, the system would be more likely to split the gap between high pressure in the Atlantic and probably curve out to sea. The second outcome is an incoherent tropical wave that makes it to the Caribbean and just gets sheared apart. Neither outcome is particularly menacing. At this point, I would say that the islands of the Caribbean should monitor the progress of this disturbance over the next week or so, however it remains highly unlikely that a severe system would impact the region at this time. Elsewhere, check back in a couple days from now and see where we are.

Other than these two systems on the board, the next thing to watch may be another deep Atlantic wave sometime the week of August 17th, which again looks minimally impressive in modeling at this time. Notably, if you look at the European subseasonal forecast from Saturday into the week of August 24th (and August 31st for that matter), Atlantic activity is expected to be below 50% of normal. This indicates to me that we are unlikely to see any significant burst of Atlantic activity the rest of this month. El Niño dominance over the basin is likely to persist.

Central Pacific and Hawaii

One area to watch that we don’t normally cover much in depth, however, is Hawaii. You can see that week 3 activity is running around 2 to 3x normal. Multiple models are pretty bullish on the disturbance out there right now, Invest 93C.

At this point, virtually all modeling keeps this south of Hawaii, but it likely is a system to keep an eye on over the next week or so, as the northern fringe of the forecast envelope just grazes the Big Island. Fringe impacts, such as gusty winds and rough surf would be likely to impact the islands eventually.

The Google Deep Mind 1,000 member ensemble is tightly clustered south of Hawaii, but it’s close enough to continue monitoring, as well as watch for gusty winds, rough surf, and fringe impacts. (tcatlas.org)

Google Deep Mind’s ensemble is quite bullish on fairly rapid intensification of 93C, with over 75 percent of members bringing this to major hurricane status (115 mph or greater). We’ll keep tabs here too.