A lot of unsettled weather expected in the Gulf and South but no real organized development expected heading into next week

In brief: While Gulf development continues to be unlikely, we will probably see unsettled, wet weather try to make another run at the Gulf Coast, Southeast, and Texas next week. The Pacific remains congested with a lot of lower-end activity, as El Niño continues ramping up. Plus, we address reader questions on recently announced ocean research cuts.

Gulf update

The good news is that the odds of any Gulf development continue to remain pleasantly low over the next 7 to 10 days. A little bit of “noise” continues to show up in modeling by this coming weekend and early next week. Even the slightly busier ensemble model from the European ensemble is showing a fair bit of shear in the Gulf next week as well, so the chance of anything significant growing out of any storminess is extremely low.

Around 20 kts. of northerly shear should be present in the Gulf next week. (Tropical Tidbits)

Still, we’ll watch. I think more interestingly will be the precipitation we see emerge in this pattern, with another soaking possible from Texas into the Southeast either beginning this weekend or next week. Through this past Saturday, many parts of the Gulf Coast and Texas had seen 150 to 300 percent of normal rainfall over the previous month.

Rainfall from early May through early June has been rather prolific across the Deep South and Gulf Coast. (High Plains Regional Climate Center)

Another surge of moisture may lead to additional flooding concerns in these areas, so we’ll see how that evolves.

Eastern Pacific

Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific remains busy, with Amanda dissipating out at sea, and Tropical Storm Boris near the Mexican coast.

Tropical Storm Boris will be out of the picture very quickly. (NOAA NHC)

I have to be honest: With a name like Boris, I expected more. Anyway, the second Pacific storm of the season will move ashore tonight as a tropical storm. Behind that is another disturbance passing off the coast of Nicaragua that will continue up the coast and eventually probably move inland. There is a chance that this one also becomes a tropical storm.

Boris and its disturbance friend off the coast of Mexico and Central America. (Weathernerds.org)

There’s just a lot of congestion along the Central America coast on the Pacific side, again, usually a calling card of an El Niño event.

Miscellany

We’ve been asked by a number of readers about a story making the rounds that first appeared in the New York Times about the Trump administration cutting and removing a deep ocean observation system around the globe. This project began 10 years ago and included over $350 million in instruments measuring a number of variables and data in the oceans to help us better understand what is happening on our planet. There’s no real good reason for these instruments to be removed. Or at least no one has shared any. The quote from the National Science Foundation’s spokesperson in the article reads, “aligns with N.S.F.’s wider strategy to have a nimbler approach to prioritizing support for evolving scientific priorities and emerging technologies as well as a deliberate approach to smart life cycle management within its portfolio of research infrastructure.”

In other words, they’re removing it because they don’t want to maintain it, which is kind of part of how science research works. Presumably the upkeep of this project (O&M cost in corporate parlance) as a legacy project had been accounted for in budgets, which opens the door up to any other number of reasons for removing it (like, perhaps because it also informs climate change research) that one can think of. You don’t just invest $350 million dollars in something that works and dismantle it to save a few bucks on maintenance. Or at least most business minded folks would not find that to be particularly efficient.

Anyway, the point is that this reduction is quite unnecessary. Yes, there are climate change research implications here. But there are also broader oceanographic, marine science, and yes, meteorological implications. Some stations help measure currents and provide added value to our broader understanding of coastal flooding, which is increasing all over the country. This continues a pattern that began last year by this administration and continues which is essentially death by a thousand paper cuts to the weather and climate fields (and science in general), implications be damned. We’re not being partisan here, we’re just being truthful.

Quiet for now, but could the Gulf begin to stir soon?

In brief: We’ll be keeping a casual eye on the Gulf late next week or weekend as the potential does exist for some low-end development. However, it’s by no means close to a certainty at this time.

So far this season, including back into May, we’ve seen some hints in the models of potential Gulf development. Yes, the usual suspects have done their usual things. But also, there’s been at least some legitimacy to the overall pattern being unsettled and stormy. One need only look at a satellite image of the Gulf today to see that.

The Gulf has nothing organizing, but it is a bit unsettled. (WeatherFront)

Over the next few days, we’ll see things start to ease up a little in the Gulf before we get a little bit more intrigue later next week. Around Thursday or Friday, we begin to see the outlines of some cyclonic flow around the Yucatan. It appears that this may be the beginnings of a Central American Gyre (CAG) pattern. This is historically a common pathway to get development in the Gulf or near Mexico in June.

The upper air pattern begins to show vorticity pooling around the Yucatan. While the European model (shown here) is a little aggressive, other modeling indicates the potential start of a CAG type pattern later next week. (WeatherFront)

If this happens, you would start watching the Gulf around next weekend. Is there actual model support for a system? Not entirely. I mean, there is, but it’s not exactly stellar at this point. Google’s AI model is very, very lukewarm on any development. The European AIFS ensemble is also fairly lukewarm on things. The classic European ensemble is a little more excited about things (shown here), but even this is like 20% of ensemble members only. And the European ensemble does tend to have a somewhat overly aggressive genesis forecast with these things in my experience.

The European ensemble has about 20 percent of members developing something loosely in the Gulf next weekend-ish. (Weathernerds.org)

Also keep in mind, this time of year, it’s most likely that if something does develop, it would be sloppy, poorly organized, and quite moisture-laden. That means heavy rain would be more of a concern than any sort of wind or surge aspects. At this point, it’s a curiosity worth following into next week to see what happens but nothing anyone needs to get too worked up over.

Indeed, there is a *lot* of moisture on the board around next weekend, with Sunday the 14th looking like it has above normal moisture up and down the East Coast and into the Gulf and Texas. So at the least, we’re looking for rain chances.

Precipitable water anomalies are above normal all over the Eastern U.S. next weekend, indicating above normal moisture and rain chances. (Pivotal Weather)

More to come on all this.

Elsewhere, we’re in good shape with no concerns. Tropical Storm Amanda in the Pacific is no threat to land. A new disturbance is likely to form into a system currently off the coast of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. That could eventually make landfall, but as of now, models are mixed on exactly what that looks like.

(NOAA/NHC)

Another disturbance south of this one may drift into Central America, possibly briefly developing. We expect the East Pacific to be fairly active this season, so this may just be the beginning for that basin.

Everything you need to know about the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season

In brief: Well, here we are. The start of the six-month Atlantic hurricane season. We are cross-posting Eric’s post from Space City Weather (with some minor broad edits for this audience from Matt) yesterday that attempts to give you the information you need about what to expect and how to prepare, without raising your anxiety too much. A little preparation now will go a long way if the worst happens.

Hurricane season forecast

We do not put a whole lot of stock in seasonal hurricane forecasting. It can provide a general sense of what is likely to happen, but there is no precision in the details that matter. For example, what we really want to know is whether there will be a lot of active storms in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, or off the East Coast, not the central Atlantic Ocean. And since we remain a couple of months away from the ‘peak’ of hurricane season we just cannot know these details.

Seasonal forecasts for the Atlantic basin in 2026. Click to enlarge. (Barcelona Supercomputing Center and Colorado State University)

With that said, the general consensus from hurricane season forecasts is that we should see activity levels below normal this year across the Atlantic basin. For example, the average number of named storms is about 14 per season, and this year the most likely range of named storms is between 8 and 14, according to NOAA. The average number of hurricanes is 7, and the expected range is 3 to 6. So this is good news, because fewer storms overall mean fewer “shots on goal” when it comes to striking the coast.

The reason for all of this is that El Niño is has developed, and it will likely continue to strengthen during the key August and September months. This should help to suppress Atlantic storm activity by increasing wind shear. There are other reasons as well, but the takeaway message here is that instead of seeing a blockbuster season, we are likely to see a quieter one. But a quieter season for the entire Atlantic does not mean a quiet season for Texas or Long Island or Florida if one or two storms threaten the coast. So as ever, we will remain vigilant here at The Eyewall.

What you should do to prepare

The most important piece of advice we can give you is to have a plan for what to do if a storm threatens. If you have a plan, then you’ll sleep better and night, and be prepared to put it into action. And this is important, because when a hurricane legitimately does threaten the Houston region, people lose their minds. You don’t want to lose your mind. We have a page on The Eyewall’s website that links to dozens of local preparedness pages on the coast. Use these pages to help build your kit, develop your plan, and determine your evacuation protocols.

And that is critical. The key question you need to decide is under what circumstances you will evacuate. An important factor in all of this is how close you live to the coast. For example, in Houston, the Houston-Galveston Area Council has some excellent resources to help you prepare at this website. Among them is a “zip-zone” map that helps homeowners identify their vulnerability to different levels of storm surge. This is also how evacuations will be called, by zip codes.

Evacuation zones by area: purple (coastal), yellow (A), green (B), and orange (C). (HGAC)

Most other local jurisdictions (many linked above) also have maps such as this. There are other determinants for whether one should evacuate. You run from the water and hide from the wind. So, wind alone is not a consideration for most people. But those winds can frequently lead to extended power outages. If you have someone in your home with a medical condition that requires electricity for support, then you definitely will still want to consider evacuation if a hurricane threatens.

For those planning to stay during most storms, here is an example of a good disaster kit checklist. A lot of this is common sense: what supplies would you need to remain in your home for several days, without power, and without access to outside resources? Also please don’t forget about pets, whether you’re staying or evacuating. It’s also good idea to check on neighbors. One of the only silver linings of a hurricane, I have found, is that it tends to bring neighbors and neighborhoods together.

The climatology of hurricane season, showing the peak from mid-August through mid-October. (NOAA NHC)

A final word. Hurricane season is a long slog, not a sprint. Because of the nature of storms, you don’t need to be at Defcon 1 from June 1 through November 30. Yes, stronger storms can occur sometimes in July, but the main time to watch is August through October. It’s very easy (and understandable!) to get worked up throughout the course of the season, but you need to pace yourself as you would a marathon.

How to find our coverage

As usual, we will have full coverage here of all storms. Really important note: For those of you in Houston, Space City Weather will remain our *primary* source for all storm info for the Texas and western Louisiana coasts. We will likely cross post to both sites during storm threats to the Houston region. You can also visit the sites and find the “subscribe” box to sign up for emails whenever we post updates.

How can we do this?

We do this because we love weather and we love ensuring people have good quality information. Seriously, over the last decade Space City Weather has become an important part of the Houston community’s fabric, and we take our responsibilities seriously. The Eyewall has been building a unique audience of its own. We’re here for the long haul and appreciate that our readers are so faithful to the sites.

Eric speaks at Space City Weather’s Fall Day in 2025.

And much we owe to you, the reader. To the extent we have grown, it has been through word of mouth. We have never advertised the sites. Rather, our growth has been entirely by word of mouth, with readers telling others about us, or sharing our activity on social media. We are grateful for that. Thank you!

Social media

As for social media, we do try to reach readers where they are. Here are a list of the places you can find us, and where you can find links to every update we do:

Facebook

Instagram

X/Twitter

TikTok

Threads

Blue Sky

Mastodon

That’s … a lot of Eric on TikTok videos.

One final thing to note this year: We are trying to do more social media videos. If you follow us on IG or TikTok, you may have periodically seen our forecast videos. We try to do one or two a week at Space City Weather now more regularly to keep people informed. We don’t want to overwhelm you with content, but when something needs to be said, we’ll say it. So be sure and check us out there if you’re a video-first type person.

Thanks for reading, and we’ll have another update this week!

Rainfall focus shifts from Texas to the eastern Gulf, as we gear up to cover the 2026 hurricane season

In brief: We have our first tropics themed forecast post of the season today, as heavy rainfall in the Southeast may also have some lower-end tropical entanglement to watch. We also discuss the coverage plan for the season and some other weatherly tidbits.

The Eyewall in 2026

Happy Wednesday. We’re getting closer to hurricane season, which is usually when the pace of our posts increases! My apologies to your inbox. Anyway, our plan for this coming season is much like it has been the last few seasons of The Eyewall: We will post every day or two and more frequently when storms are threatening. There may be times where we have to take a few extra days off, as we’re both navigating life! But as always, all of our posts will be public facing and freely available, and we will keep comments open to all this season. We will continue to post both on Substack and The Eyewall’s website, so readers can pick the source best for them. We certainly would love for you to subscribe to our Substack, as it is our way of being able to send out emailed posts en masse and also offers a way to support our work. Paying members support our work for all, but we will hopefully put at least something together unique for you as well at some point later this year, be it a live chat, AMA, or something else. Your support and generosity are greatly appreciated. With my eventual relocation from Houston to the Northeast, I will also probably be including a few more Northeast Corridor related nuggets in here too.

Severe Weather: Not entirely dormant

We’re actually likely heading into a period of somewhat calmer conditions over the coming days, as severe weather risks focus mostly on localized areas from time to time.

The days 4 to 8 severe weather outlook is rather uneventful. (Pivotal Weather)

Again, that’s not to say severe weather won’t happen. It probably will. It’s May, and we’re heading into June. However, any sort of large scale, significant or long-duration events don’t seem likely to crop up anytime soon. It will be stormy in spots, however, including today in the Mid-Atlantic where a slight risk (level 2/5) is in place.

Today’s severe weather risk includes DC, Richmond, and Delmarva. (NOAA SPC)

Flooding chances: Watching the Southeast

And that dovetails into our flooding conversation. It does look quite wet over the next 7 to 10 days or so in the South.

Forecast rain from the NWS over the next 7 days. (Pivotal Weather)

Texas has seen a good deal of rain over the last 7 to 10 days, and while storms will continue to pester the state at times, the better chances will probably shift into the Panhandle and New Mexico as we go into next week. We’ll probably have to start watching some of the burn scars in New Mexico for flash flooding potential.

However, the Southeast is where the focus will now be for the most heavy rain and flooding potential. Precip over the next 2 weeks is expected to average well above normal in Florida and along the eastern Gulf Coast.

(NWS Jacksonville)

While these areas have been dry, obviously when you start talking about isolated pockets of 4 to 8 inches of rain, even over a 10-to-14-day period, that’s a lot and can lead to flooding risk.

Tropics: Something weak in the Gulf stirring in early June? If you squint.

And that dovetails into our tropics conversation. Hurricane season begins on Monday, if you were not aware. We don’t currently see any real threats at this point. That said, within this funnel of moisture aimed at Florida and the Southeast and Gulf Coast, we may begin to see the risk of a disturbance forming by accident in the Gulf.

A very, very small number of European ensemble members indicate that something could attempt to form within this otherwise rainy pattern in the eastern Gulf over the next 2 weeks. (Google Weather Lab)

What does that mean? We’re heading into June, so we’re not talking about anything aesthetically pleasing or textbook here. Early season systems tend to be weak and sloppy but moisture laden. And they often form in the Gulf. With all this moisture being directed south to north across the Gulf, there will inevitably be a disturbance or two in the flow. When that happens, you may briefly open a window for tropical development. Right now, odds favor that *not* happening, but I just want to plant the seed, a.) because again, to emphasize, early season systems are not usually strong and b.) this is definitely a high moisture pattern capable of producing flooding.

Early June Atlantic tropical activity usually forms in the eastern Gulf, far northwest Caribbean or off the Florida coast. (NOAA NHC)

When could this happen? Later next week or weekend. Based on the map from the European ensemble shown near the top of this section, that seems to be the timeframe we may be looking at. Notably, AI modeling, both from the European Centre and from Google show nothing really.

What should happen, regardless, is a pickup in early season activity in the Eastern Pacific, however. Models hint at some activity there.

The East Pacific is quite warm and should become more hospitable toward tropical development over the next few weeks. (Weathernerds.org)

So, do you need to worry about a Gulf system? No, but you should be monitoring rainfall forecasts over the next 10 days in Florida and along the eastern Gulf Coast. More to come!