The Eyewall

Happy Monday, Standard Time, and November! Here’s what’s happening in the world of weather. Feel free to leave me any topics you want a deeper dive in in the comments!

The week ahead

Atlantic tropics: Hurricane season technically runs through November 30th, but we remain quiet this week. There are some signs that something may try to form either in the Caribbean or open Atlantic either over the weekend or next week, but as of now that risk seems low enough to not speculate on too much.

Pacific tropics: Things are generally quiet here as well, though there is a moderate chance that a system develops south of Hawaii again over the next week or so.

Stormy! There will be a lot to discuss about the West. More on that below. But for now, the storm system responsible for flooding is on the way out. As it moves into the Plains, we should see a chance of severe storms today across the Southern Plains.

Some heavy rain will also be possible, but thankfully the system should be rather progressive limiting flooding risk.

In addition to the storm system in the Central U.S., there will be continued heavy precipitation in Florida. There is likely a lot of warranted speculation about how weather may have impacted the tragic plane crash near Palm Beach yesterday, but it’s important to let the investigators do their work before we draw too many conclusions.

Regardless, Florida has seen a lot of rain and will see more. 48 hour rainfall estimates are in the double digits in parts of the Peninsula.

Aside from this, we could see a healthy windstorm over the Lakes, especially Lake Superior later this week, as we enter Gales of November season.

And after just an unbelievable stretch of gorgeous autumn weather and foliage in the Northeast, conditions will shift to a bit stormier by the weekend.

Deeper dive: Western deluge

The main news story in the weather world here in the U.S. has been the unbelievable, copious amounts of rain that have been falling in the Desert Southwest this autumn.

What has happened? Repeated remnants of hurricanes, a late monsoon, and an early season southern storm track aimed into Mexico and California has led to storm after storm deluging the Southwest. Some locations have seen over a foot of rain more than normal. Additionally, really high snow levels have prevented much of this from falling as frozen precipitation, and it all runs off into the river systems.

The end result? Catastrophic flooding ongoing across the Four Corners region. After areas were hammered last weekend, with places like Pagosa Springs, CO having their worst flooding in years, the round this weekend may have been the straw to break the camel’s back. Worse, to perhaps all-time record flooding is expected. Alan Gerard had a good roundup of the river flooding yesterday evening at Balanced Weather.

The causes? It’s easy to blame El Niño for this, but it’s more complicated than that. This certainly has El Niño’s fingerprints all over it. However, we’re also dealing with a somewhat unprecedented marine heat wave off Baja and the California coast, tangentially related to El Niño, though it did precede the actual development of the El Niño. The combination of this warm marine water juicing the lower atmosphere, a warming climate allowing the atmosphere to hold more moisture, El Niño adding more heat, and multiple storm systems has just ushered in a perfect storm of storms.

What about the Colorado River? I’ve written periodically about the state of drought in the West and my niche interest in Colorado River issues, having read a lot about it. There’s no denying this is good news for the short-term health of the Colorado River reservoir system.

Let’s be clear about this: This is good news in the short term. Over the long term, there is a long, long way to go. In order for this to be a more sustainable recovery, we will need to see snowpack in the Rockies in the Colorado Basin come in strong this winter. What we’ve had over the last few weeks is not that. So this winter is critical. And then you need a couple more normal to above normal winters, and maybe the combination of natural recovery and the Basin States cutting usage can lead to a more sustainable path forward. We shall see.

In the news

• A century’s worth of air and water data has led to a more nuanced picture of ice cover on the Great Lakes. (Great Lakes Now)

• After horrible thunderstorms earlier this summer hammered northwest Indiana, communities like Gary are still dealing with the aftermath. (WBEZ Chicago)

• O.C. coast is losing battle against El Niño flooding, and it’s about to get worse (LA Times $)

• There’s a snowplow driver shortage in New Hampshire! Solving it requires paying up. (NH Public Radio)

The final word

How can you help Southwest flooding victims? There are many national and global charities you can surely donate to, and I want to remind folks that a lot of what is happening is occurring on tribal lands in the Southwest. Their resources are often more strained and limited than those on non-tribal lands. I always advocate contributing locally when possible. A couple places to start:

• GoFundMe has a page setup with verified fundraisers for flood victims in the region.
• For southwest Colorado.
• Navajo Strong is an organization out of Utah that helps Indigenous communities.

Feel free to share anything else in the comments.

Happy Monday! Here’s what’s happening in the world of weather. Trying a fresh format that I’ll probably tweak and manage, but for now, as the hurricane season slows and winter approaches, look for a once a week “newsletter” with some more digestible bits and pieces. We’ll pick up the pace if there’s a bigger story to talk about. Leave us feedback, good or bad.

The week ahead

Atlantic tropics: Quiet. No activity is expected behind Josephine last week. There will be low pressure near Florida and the Bahamas this week, but aside from rain/storms, we don’t expect any development.

Pacific tropics: Tropical Storm Vance will move ashore into Mexico after finally backing down from hurricane intensity late Sunday.

More flooding? The remnants of Vance could produce significant rainfall in Texas later this week and weekend. In fact, that area is already highlighted under a risk of flooding by late week. Arizona is highlighted for Friday as another non-tropical West Coast storm pushes through.

This is probably the weather story of the week, as flooding has been a tremendous, somewhat underreported problem in parts of the Southwest, particularly in the San Juan River. Alan Gerard has more on this at his Balanced Weather site and has been covering it closely since last week. It seems like the worst of this next round of rain will miss that area, but it remains a forecast worth continuing to watch.

Deeper dive: Heat storms?

Reuters published a piece on October 20th that did a dive in on “heat storms,” based on a bunch of weather data they analyzed. Some of you will nod your heads. Some will roll your eyes. It’s worth a read regardless.

The good? They humanized what they defined, something that’s not easy to do. They defined what they believe to be a “heat storm” and then wrote a biography of one and some of the people it impacted. I appreciate that, because it drives home how serious extreme heat is, a concern on a warming planet.

The less good? While I understand the sentiment of the work, it does feel a bit contrived. But then again, when your goal as a journalist is to shed light on topics that perhaps are not adequately being discussed or fairly covered, you have to start somewhere. You could do far worse than where they began. Still, their definitions need some work and (more importantly) more rigorous peer review before it would be accepted. Also, while I do appreciate the idea that names resonate, I don’t always agree with it, such as with what The Weather Channel does with winter storms.

The takeaway for me? We do lack a truly adequate, universal definition of “extreme heat” in the 2020s, and we probably need to get something defined sooner than later. “Heat wave” was fine for the era it was developed and defined. But when places often routinely have top 10 hottest summers on record like we’ve seen in many places in the last 25 years, it becomes important.

The piece is worth your time.

El Niño in the news

I am going to include a section on El Niño, as the world is going to get pummeled by news stories. Some are more worthwhile than others. I’ll try to highlight a few of those here.

• When dealing with El Niño, it’s nice to have a historical analog to level set with. Fox Weather took a look at some recent past events. Currently 1997-98 is tracking as the closest cousin to 2026.

• The Wall Street Journal takes a look at how El Niño could impact ski season this year. ($)

• Coastal flooding due to king tides, coupled with higher water levels from the ongoing El Niño are causing problems in California again. Get used to this, it’s going to repeat multiple times this winter.

• Where could flooding be worst in the Bay Area this winter? Anthony Edwards at the San Francisco Chronicle found out. ($)

The final word

What is the official definition of “heat wave?” The American Meteorological Society defines it as “A period of abnormally and uncomfortably hot and usually humid weather.” There are a few addendums to that, but it does leave us with the point that this is a definition begging to be redefined.

In brief: A coastal storm off the Carolina coast will continue to produce gusty winds, tidal flooding, rough surf, and beach erosion. It should exit Thursday or Friday. The West will prepare for another bout of heavy rain and some mountain snow, with significant rainfall and flash flooding possible between Phoenix and Durango on Wednesday and Thursday.

The East Coast storm we’ve been discussing is winding up as we start the week, and it’s producing some decent wind gusts on the Mid-Atlantic coast today. The Outer Banks have gusted to 40 mph at Hatteras, 41 mph at Nags Head, 43 mph at Duck, and 45 mph at the U.S. Coast Guard Station near Cape Hatteras.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph or so will continue into tomorrow and slowly subside into Wednesday and Thursday. As this happens, tidal flooding will continue to be an issue on the East Coast. Numerous gauges are expected to peak near minor flood all the way up through New Jersey now. Moderate flooding is expected from Delmarva into the Outer Banks. And locally major tidal flooding is expected along the Pagan River in Virginia.

The particular gauge that’s expected to reach major flooding is a younger gauge, so we don’t have a lot of history here, but the forecast does push it up to 4.5 feet, which is just under the recent record set last October for that site, the Pagan River at Smithfield Station. These levels will cause inconvenient flooding for those areas.

Notice that this will also be a “build up” event. In many of these locations, since the storm will be longer duration, tides won’t have the ability to lower fully, and you just add a little bit of water on top of each tide cycle til the storm clears. Tide levels should peak later Wednesday or early Thursday before beginning to subside as the storm exits. Rough surf and beach erosion remain serious concerns from the Outer Banks into the Jersey Shore.

On satellite, the coastal low looks standard right now; nothing too special or unordinary.

It looks like it just recently got tagged as Invest 93L, however, and the National Hurricane Center forecasts a 40 percent chance of development, right in line with what Google’s 1,000 member ensemble shows. Just to again be clear about this, while there is a chance that this storm will develop into a depression or named storm it is not a direct threat to land in the U.S., and it will not really change the anticipated impacts for the East Coast.

For those wonkier than the primary target audience here, the system looks to a rather shallow warm core low, so it will have about 48 hours or so to develop over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream before it likely starts to lose tropical characteristics and just remains a big ole’ low pressure system tracking north. Folks in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland probably want to keep tabs on the future of this system, as it may be a decent rain and wind producer up there if it can track close enough to land.

Otherwise, that’s the story on Invest 93L, our coastal storm.

The tropics look generally quiet in the Atlantic beyond this. There may be something in the western Caribbean or southwest Atlantic that tracks north or northeastward toward month’s end, but at this time support for that is relatively muted, mostly just 1 to 5 ensemble members in various model runs.

Looking West

As noted last evening, the remnants of Pacific Hurricane Trudy, a western Pacific typhoon, and a cool front look to bring a bout of locally heavy rain to California and the Southwest later this week. In fact, the Weather Prediction Center has pushed up a slight risk for excessive rainfall on days 3 and (shown below) 4 for the Southwest.

Wednesday and Thursday look to be the target days, with locally heavy precipitation in Southern California, as well as more coverage of heavier rain and some mountain snow in the Southwest.

We’re looking at around an inch of liquid in the mountains of the LA Basin and perhaps on the coast near Santa Barbara. Arizona should get whacked with 1 to 3 inches in the mountains northeast of Phoenix and even more than that in Colorado outside of Durango in the San Juan Mountains. Snow levels will vary from west to east, around 8,000 in the Sierra, 10,000 feet in northern Arizona and Nevada, and 12,000 feet in Colorado. As you go north, snow levels could drop down to 7,000 feet or so in Utah, but the total precipitation will be lower.

So perhaps skiers can get a little excited about seeing this. Arapahoe (north of this map view) plans to open Saturday, so this surely won’t hurt. Congrats to those who celebrate.

In brief: The Mid-Atlantic coast is likely to see multiple rounds of minor to moderate tidal flooding with a slow moving coastal low this week. The West is likely to see another round of heavy rain, something that is still very needed in that region.

Before we begin today, a quick personal-ish note. For those unaware, I (Matt) moved to Connecticut over the summer to be closer to family, experience autumn again, and for of course for work. But while I was still in Houston in 2025 I was asked to help out with a documentary being developed, centered around friend and colleague, Chris Gloninger. Chris’s story became newsworthy for leaving broadcast meteorology after receiving actual death threats for discussing climate change in Iowa.

Whatever your thoughts on climate change, I think most of us can agree that discussion and differences around how to approach climate change solutions are reasonable, but taking it to the “death threat” level is overboard and reprehensible. Chris has since devoted his career toward advancing the public’s understanding of climate science and impacts. The documentary will not just focus on Chris but also on how communities respond when extreme weather strikes, with a deeper look at the horrific Texas Hill Country flood of 2025 and the 2025 budget and staffing cuts to the National Weather Service.

To get the movie to the finish line, the film needs some crowdsourcing to finish things up. It’s a 501(c)(3) for those curious. Some of you may be all-in on helping, some of you may not want to touch anything climate related, and some of you may not know what’s up here. For that latter group, there will be a Zoom event this Wednesday with Sarah Gibson, who was delightful to talk to and work with, Chris Gloninger himself, and Jeff Masters, who was the original hurricane weather blogger and who The Eyewall draws a good deal of inspiration from. (You should also read Jeff’s current work over at Yale’s Climate Connections blog, along with another inspiration for The Eyewall, Bob Henson).

Even if you aren’t interested or able to financially contribute, it may be an event you’re curious to attend. Dr. Masters will also be giving an update on the upcoming El Niño winter. Here is the link for the Zoom meeting on Wednesday, October 21, at 7:30 p.m. EDT / 6:30 p.m. CDT. To receive an invite, please RSVP at [email protected].

East Coast storm

As we noted last week, our biggest issue heading into this week will be yet another slow moving nor’easter-type storm off the East Coast. This one remains sort of floating between a nor’easter or a tropical system. I’m going to just refer to it as a “coastal low,” because the difference in impacts, be it a nor’easter or a tropical storm will be minimal. These things matter from a scientific perspective but not from a public preparedness perspective.

That said, there is a 30% chance this will take up a name this week, per the NHC. Google’s Deep Mind shows about a 60% chance of development this week. To be honest, I don’t know enough about how Google’s model will discern between tropical and non-tropical in its algorithm, so this could be high, low, or something in between. Either way, it stands to reason that a nominally strong coastal low is going to take up residency this week off the North Carolina coast.

Here’s what the European model showed this morning in terms of surface pressure and precipitation.

So, good news/bad news here compared to what we discussed the other day. First, the good news is that the residency time near the coast and frankly the proximity to the coast looks a little more manageable today compared to Thursday. The bad news is that this will still produce multiple days of rough surf and tidal flooding that will likely contribute to another round of coastal erosion.

At this point, it looks like the most significant tidal impacts through midweek will be on Delmarva and in the Virginia Tidewater.

We may squeeze out another tide cycle or two of flooding beyond the end of this forecast, but it looks like late Tuesday through Wednesday will be worst right now for that issue. There is at least some risk that a tide cycle could verify with major coastal flooding at a location or two between Delmarva and the Outer Banks. This is implied on the coastal flooding risk map for the Tidewater through Thursday.

Bottom line: If you live on the coast from Delaware through the Outer Banks, you’ll probably be impacted by either erosion, coastal flooding, or rough surf over multiple days this week.

While the storm system will sit offshore, it will still be breezy at times this week as well. Wind gusts into tomorrow could be around 35 to 45 mph on the Mid-Atlantic coast. Some gusts in the Outer Banks could approach 50 mph. Here’s a map for tomorrow afternoon.

Slightly less intense wind gusts will persist into Tuesday and Wednesday. The system should pull far enough east to lower impacts by later Thursday and Friday.

Peek at the Pacific

Hurricane Trudy off the coast of Mexico is the latest in an endless string of hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific. Over the next few days it will begin to weaken. However, a surge of tropical moisture from that area is once again going to lift northward into the Desert Southwest, an area that has been absolutely soaked over the last month or so. After a relatively weak monsoon season, this was needed. And some places are seeing rainfall departures of 3 to 6 inches above normal, and even more in spots.

Lake Powell’s water level has jumped about 2 feet over the last week or so, which is a literal drop in the bucket of what’s needed out there, but it’s a start.

Well, as Trudy’s moisture is pulled north, yet another round of locally heavy rainfall seems likely in the West. California should participate in this as well, as a well timed cold front and low pressure system will approach off the Pacific (somewhat tied to the remnants of western Pacific Typhoon Koguma). This should help spread rain out over the entire region, with the heaviest probably associated with Trudy’s remnants in southwest Colorado.

Obviously the rainfall amounts are subject to change, but this looks like another decent rain event for the Southwest.