Early July Check-up on the tropics and some other miscellany

In brief: The tropics remain quiet, and the season continues to look as if it will be quiet. We take stock of the current situation. Flooding risks will be in the forecast once again for the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and Mid-South. We also check in on our one year anniversary on Substack. Thank you for your support!

Thank you again for your patience as I am mid-relocation from Houston, currently in Chicago where it’s rather hazy. Likely some lingering degree of wildfire smoke and typical “summer haze.” Whatever the case, look for a more typical posting regime to return next week.

Tropics check in

As of this morning, there is nothing doing in the tropics on the Atlantic side.

A whole lot of nothing! (NOAA NHC)

Again, this is not atypical per se for July, but it certainly adds to a body of evidence suggesting that this hurricane season will not be all that and a bag of chips. In fact, as of earlier this morning, the experts at Colorado State University dropped their latest seasonal forecast numbers, indicating 9 named storms (including Arthur), four hurricanes, and only one major hurricane. Their ACE forecast, or that of accumulated cyclone energy, is 50 for the season. If that were to verify, it would be the least active hurricane season since 2013.

All that is and would certainly be welcome news. The usual caveats apply here. First off, I think it’s worth noting that the Gulf is extremely warm for this time of year.

Gulf of Mexico SSTs are near record levels for July. (Kim Wood, University of Arizona)

Warm SSTs alone will not generate tropical activity, but if we end up with a period of time where storm activity increases or has a brief window of healthy conditions, well then that could be an issue. Also, it is July 8th, and although we have one full month of hurricane season behind us, in terms of ACE, we still have 96.8 percent of hurricane season in front of us.

So what’s the logical takeaway? Yes, it looks like we’re trending toward a relatively weak season. El Nino is quite bulled up right now, and that will add above average wind shear to the equation. The deep Atlantic is cool, but the Gulf is warm. So it’s a hurricane season you still want to prepare for even if the odds strongly favor a pretty subdued one.

In the meantime, I don’t see anything of note over the next 7 to 10 days. Some models, including Google Deep Mind’s 1,000 member ensemble are showing low-risk of something off the Southeast coast, but as of right now, those odds are less than 10 percent and any system would likely track east out to sea.

Probability of a tropical cyclone within 200km of a given location over the next 10 days, generated using Google Deep Mind’s 1000 member forecast ensemble. (Google)

But aside from something lower-end there, I think we’re quiet for a bit longer.

One year on Substack!

First off, we just passed our 1-year anniversary on Substack. I want to thank our readers there, including the several thousand that have subscribed since last summer and the several hundred that have concluded they can also support us financially by subscribing. We sincerely appreciate your generosity and support for our efforts to keep people informed without scaring the daylights out of them. I have read more and more stories of what’s been happening in some other big media corners of the world, and I want to just double down on the fact that we feel an independently-driven site with a niche focus (tropics and extreme weather) is a big part of the equation for helping solve some of what ails the media landscape in 2026. We will continue to commit ourselves to writing our posts by hand, not generating them through AI. We continue to commit to this space being free of AI slop and running against the broader “enshittification” of online media. Above all, thank you for your support.

Flooding risks

There’s always flooding to talk about, but I want to just highlight a Midwest/Mid-South risk over the next few days. Flood watches are already posted for parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley, as several rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain are likely the next few days. By Monday, an average of 2 to 4 inches of rain will likely occur between St. Louis and Knoxville, including Nashville, Evansville, and perhaps Louisville. Locally higher amounts are a safe bet in spots.

NBM model forecast rainfall through Monday. (WeatherFront)

These areas have seen 200 to 300 percent of normal rainfall over the last month, so the combination of already saturated soils and additional heavy rain rates will likely lead to numerous instances of flash flooding. A weather story to be aware of.

After this weekend, the focus will shift to a reloading heat dome over the Northern Plains that should bring back hot weather to parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, as well as thunderstorm risks on the northern periphery in Canada and perhaps down to New York and New England.

Table setting for the upcoming week: Heat, humidity in the East, thunderstorms and smoke in other places

In brief: Tonight’s late post serves as a table setter for the upcoming week, with no tropics concerns thankfully. However, a major heat wave is going to overspread much of the country. We check on details there, as well as some talk of other challenges of note.

Editor’s note: This week begins the relocation process for me from the Houston area back to the Northeast. Nothing will change with my work here with The Eyewall or at Space City Weather. That said, the next week or two will be quite frenetic so please bear with us, as posts will be fairly infrequent.

While I do have time this Sunday evening, I wanted to step through some major weather news for the upcoming week. I encourage you to read my friend and colleague’s Alan Gerard’s post from earlier today, particularly with some additional details on recent severe weather and Western U.S. fire weather.

Tropics

Let’s start with the easy stuff. There do not appear to be any realistic tropical concerns over the next 7 to 10 days. Nothing is forecast this week, and looking at the subseasonal European model’s outlook, there appears to be no real risk of much of anything next week.

Tropical activity is expected to be minimal in the Atlantic over the next 2 to 3 weeks. (ECMWF)

It’s actually somewhat fortunate, as the overall pattern over the U.S. this week would favor some broad flow toward the Southeast or Gulf. But with plenty of dust and not many disturbances, we should be in good shape.

Heat Wave

We have an absolute roaster coming to the Eastern U.S. over the next week. This is not your average heat wave. The forecast high temperature for Washington, DC on Friday is 103°. This level of heat has been hit only 21 times since decent records for the Reagan National Airport site began in 1871. DC last did this in 2024, when it hit 104 degrees. Some modeling does indicate that temperatures could even pass 103 and head toward 104 or 105 degrees. Unlike in many parts of the country, the all-time DC record of 106° has resiliently stood since 1930. This is also the case for places like Philadelphia and Baltimore, that have held some of these heat records for over 100 years. Urbanization and climate change have helped along nighttime lows and daytime highs significantly in recent years overall, but it’s a little tougher on some of these individual days. Though as we saw recently in Europe, it’s not out of the question we do it this week.

Forecast high temperatures from the NBM model for Friday. (WeatherFront)

While the heat may not be quite to the max levels as we see in the East, the Midwest will be dealing with multiple days of excessive heat as well. The forecast for Chicago over the next week is painful.

(WeatherBell)

The next five days will also see substantial humidity, pushing virtually every heat metric we use into “extreme” categories, meaning outdoor conditions will be unsafe, not just for vulnerable individuals, but also for some normal people too. Particularly with nighttime lows never cooling off much below 80 degrees at night, this sets up a health concern for folks without access to air conditioning.

The simple explanation for this heatwave is just a really, really strong area of upper atmospheric high pressure, what we often hear referred to as a “heat dome” or “death ridge.” Cheeky nicknames though they are, these types of high-pressure systems are notorious for some of the hottest weather we see in a summer. And at this intensity, you’re talking record risks.

A massive ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere will establish over the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic this week leading to extreme heat. (Pivotal Weather)

By the end of the model loop above, you can see that ridge of high pressure begin to break down and retreat. This will lead to a gradual relaxation of the heat heading through the holiday weekend.

Another element of this setup we’ll have to watch are thunderstorms.

NBM forecast of total rainfall over the next 7 days. (WeatherFront)

You can see the evidence for the ridge over the Midwest, and what happens (as we discussed last week) is you get thunderstorms riding the ridge periphery. In this case, the most likely areas to see thunderstorms will probably be across Ontario, Quebec, and perhaps Maine. We could see a couple complexes of storms come closer to Upstate New York, New Hampshire, Vermont, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Minnesota. Rain amounts will vary based on how well organized these storms are and exactly where they track. Additional scattered thunderstorms are likely on the south side of the ridge from Florida across the Gulf Coast and into perhaps Louisiana and Texas.

Other items of note

We had some severe flash flooding this weekend in Kentucky and Indiana that has left several people dead. Rainfall estimates over the last 72 hours top 10 to 12 inches in spots.

Gauge corrected 72 hour rainfall totals through Sunday evening. (WeatherFront)

On the opposite end of the spectrum, we’re seeing some pretty severe wildfire activity in the West now. Aside from the numerous threats to life and property ongoing from those fires, we are also likely going to see an enormous amount of wildfire smoke spreading across parts of the country, starting in the Rockies and Plains over the next few days. We’ve already seen it happening at times. This problem is likely to continue. Hopefully cooler weather in the West will help with suppression efforts.

Smoke at Midnight CT across the Rockies and western Plains. (Pivotal Weather)

Air quality issues are likely at times, especially around the periphery of the high pressure ridge this week in the Midwest and East. This may impact the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Canada, and parts of New England.

Whatever the case, the weather is quite busy right now, and the focus turns to heat this week.

More when we are able. Thank you for everyone’s patience!

Weather Whys: The other side of heat? Ridge-riding thunderstorms

In brief: Today’s post takes advantage of a quiet tropics to explain what ridge riding thunderstorms are, as you may be hearing a bit about those in addition to heat next week across a swath of the Central and Eastern U.S.

There’s nothing to report in the Atlantic tropics, so today we’ll talk about a topic that will become more relevant in the coming peak summer heat: Ridge-riding thunderstorms.

What are they?

Well, the name tells you everything. They are thunderstorms that develop and ride the periphery of high pressure in the upper atmosphere. These tend to occur most often in the summer months. We sometimes refer to this as “ring of fire” thunderstorms or “ridge rollers.”

(University of Wisconsin CIMSS)

How and where do they form?

Like any thunderstorm, you need rising air, instability, and moisture. All of those are usually present around the periphery of high pressure ridges, or what you often hear referred to as “heat domes” or “death ridges.” High pressure itself indicates sinking, hotter air, so underneath the ridge, it’s dry. But on the outskirts? Not so much. In fact, instability is typically pretty potent in those areas, as you’re straddling the border between very hot, dry air and cooler air. This is why the storms usually initiate on the top (poleward) side of the ridge, not on the southern periphery. Northern areas are also closer to the jet stream, offering some extra punch. Areas on the southern periphery of the ridge can see storms too but the overall instability, temperature contrast, and proximity from the jet stream work against them.

Are they usually stronger than typical summer thunderstorms?

They can be, yes. There’s a pretty decent connection between intense heat waves in the Central U.S. and derechoes, or the strongest of these strong clusters of thunderstorms that produce widespread, significant damaging wind. Not all heat waves will produce derechoes. Not at all. But many historic derechoes have occurred in heat waves. There are numerous exceptions, of course. But there is a connection. The reason is that as these thunderstorms develop with daytime heating, somewhere on the ridge periphery, depending on upper level disturbances, etc., they often quickly organize into “clusters” of thunderstorms. Those clusters can often then develop into a more organized complex of thunderstorms, known as a mesoscale convective system, or MCS. In most cases, these complexes of storms will produce scattered severe weather and torrential rain. But periodically, we can get some that overachieve. Those are the ones that usually go on to acquire derecho status.

Dry air from heat domes or high pressure ridges in close proximity to these storms can often infiltrate the storms aloft. That matters because while dry air in general inhibits thunderstorm development, a layer of dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere can turn an ordinary cluster of storms into a potent one.

What part of the country sees these most?

Usually in summer, this type of pattern is most likely to occur with a Plains or Midwest ridge of high pressure, and the thunderstorms will tend to follow the periphery across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, periodically into Upstate New York, New England, or parts of the Mid Atlantic. Occasionally, you can get strong to severe storms that plow across the Plains, much like we saw this past weekend in Oklahoma and Arkansas.

Favored areas for occasional derecho events (more often MCS’s). (NOAA)

Why do they often occur at night?

Well, as noted above, the initiation of these storms often occurs during the late afternoon and evening, as is typical for summertime storms. However, as they organize and cluster, they will keep going through the night, often fueled by internal dynamics and a low level jet stream (strong winds around 5,000 feet up) that tend to help them maintain their intensity or at times intensify further. These storms transition from surface based, which means heating at the surface and instability develop the thunderstorms to “elevated,” which occurs when you lose most of the instability available as temperatures cool. Precipitation varies diurnally, especially in the Plains, where the maximum average precip actually occurs at night, not during the afternoon. Frankly, it often gets difficult to sustain these complexes of thunderstorms after sunrise, as you lose the nighttime low level jet, the cloud cover and leading cool air ahead of the storms further stabilizes the atmosphere, and you see cloud tops begin to warm up (stronger storms have colder air at their tops).

What are the hazards with these types of storms?

Again, as noted above, some (not all or even many, but some) have become historic derecho events, like the 1995 Adirondack blowdown or the June 2012 Mid-Atlantic derecho. Most others never get remembered in history but can cause locally significant damage. But all threats tend to exist with these storms: Wind, hail, tornadoes. Straight-line winds are far and away the biggest threat (in addition to prolific lightning). But hail and tornadoes can and occasionally do occur, especially as the storms initiate early on. Additionally, heavy rainfall is likely with these systems, and depending on the ground conditions ahead of the event, they can cause flash flooding.

So, next week?

Yes, we may get a good example of ridge rolling thunderstorms next week. If we look at the operational European model, you can see a couple of things happening. First, the ridge will prominently expand. We’ve already seen messaging from the National Weather Service on the heat potential next week.

(NWS Weather Prediction Center)

Second, if you follow the Euro here, you’ll see that ridge expand but also a lot of yellow and orange color riding along top of it. What we’re looking at is 500 mb vorticity. Each time one of these passes by, it’s indicating a potential “seed” for thunderstorm complex development basically.

The European operational model for next week showing a big heat ridge and also thunderstorm development risk. (Tropical Tidbits)

There are at least 2 or 3 of them showing up in the model between Sunday and Saturday next week. So I would anticipate we see at least a couple days of some severe weather risk across the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, or Great Lakes. The Storm Prediction Center discussion this morning for day 5 and onward says as much:

Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday and into next week. However,
predictability remains too low to highlight areas in this timeframe.
The presence of strong to very strong instability across a large
region with multiple shortwave troughs emerging from the primary
trough centered over the West will surely support severe weather
potential most days. However, probabilities for specific areas
cannot be added until the upper-level pattern becomes more clear. – SPC Wednesday AM discussion

So the point of today’s post was to educate you a bit on why you see this happen in summer but also do so in a timely manner because you’ll probably see it in action in a few days!

Tropics quiet, as we review last week’s Gulf Coast flooding

In brief: Today’s post focuses primarily on recapping the Gulf Coast flooding from last week, with a look at why Arthur was a contributor but not the only cause of the flooding. We also argue that had Arthur not technically been a tropical storm, the outcome would likely have still been similar.

Tropics

Nothing to do. It’s quiet out there, and it looks to stay that way over the next 7 to 10 days. The Atlantic, as it often is this time of year, is caked in dust.

Widespread Saharan dust litters the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf. (University of Wisconsin)

So at this time, there’s nothing expected. We still expect a below average season overall, but it’s fairly common for the end of June and front half of July to struggle with much tropical activity. So this is not abnormal in the grand scheme of things and doesn’t indicate anything of note heading out beyond the forecast horizon.

Recapping rain

The Gulf Coast is a tough place to live sometimes. There’s a lot of socioeconomic history involved there, but from a weather perspective almost every weather event seems to be magnified.

(HopeForce on X)

Avoyelles Parish, Louisiana is the most recent victim of magnified weather, as last week’s rains from the remnants of Arthur and a water-fueled jet stream pattern dumped 2 feet of rain on a good chunk of the Parish. This caused extensive flooding, dozens of rescues, and another chapter in a long, storied flood history in Louisiana. For those looking to contribute to relief, Building a Better Avoyelles is a local charity helping with flood relief now. The United Way of Central Louisiana is also another local organization that can help. The usual suspects are also fine organizations as well, but I wanted to focus on local support here. Feel free to leave other sources in the comments.

Avoyelles Parish residents can’t really recall anything this bad there in memory. The flooding was not limited to just there, however. Southern Mississippi also took a big hit, with areas north of Gulfport and Biloxi seeing as much as 17 to 18 inches of rain.

72-hour rainfall ending on Friday morning. (NOAA NSSL)

How rough have the last 7 to 10 or so days been in the South? Rough.

Rainfall from the prior 7 days ending at 8 AM Sunday. Avoyelles Parish and southern Mississippi stand out, but 10″+ totals also occurred elsewhere too. (Pivotal Weather)

Plaucheville, LA ended up with 31.51 inches over the course of last week. Perkinston, MS had 21.53 inches of rain. Red Level, AL saw 12.60 inches. A CoCoRaHS station at Cottonport, LA saw over 37 inches of rain as well. Wiggins, MS was 22.84 inches.

The CoCoRaHS report from near Cottonport, LA showing 29″ of rain on June 18 and over 37 inches for the week. (CoCoRaHS)

Beyond damage and totals, it’s important to remember that while Tropical Storm Arthur played a role in this, we would have had a substantial rain and flooding event still, even without Arthur. We had been talking about this for several days before the event itself. You can see this show up when we look at the European model’s precipitable water analysis image from last Thursday morning.

The precipitable water normalized anomaly map for Thursday, June 18th. (Tropical Tidbits)

What is this showing? Well, for one, Arthur shows up progressing through Louisiana and Mississippi. But beyond that, you have Caribbean moisture and Pacific moisture converging across the Gulf. Remember, Pacific Ocean water temperatures are outlandishly warm, and not just because of El Niño either. What’s coming out of the Pacific is record warm.

Eastern North Pacific water temperatures are at record levels. (University of Arizona)

Keep in mind that even if Arthur never technically became a tropical storm, it was indicative of a vigorous disturbance that may have also been influenced by Pacific Tropical Storm Cristina, which weakened about week before Arthur formed. I would argue that Arthur would have been about the same intensity and rain-laden had it never even made it over the water.

So it raises a valid question that my friend and colleague Michael Lowry lobbed out there, which is whether this may have confused the issue somewhat. Messaging a tropical storm and messaging a flood are occasionally one in the same, as tropical storms can and often do produce flooding. But did the idea that Arthur developed and made landfall in Texas so quickly maybe suggest that areas farther east were off the hook? The NHC’s job is to follow the science with respect to naming storms. If it’s a tropical storm, then it’s a tropical storm, and they should not ignore that just because it may alter perception in some places. (We can argue whether Arthur was indeed a tropical storm or something more hybrid, and we’ll see what the postseason analysis says) But in this case, it had been broadcast for days in advance that serious flooding potential was coming to the Gulf Coast. So no one should have been caught off guard, per se. (Though seeing nearly 30 inches in a day in Avoyelles Parish is tough to really argue was “expected.”)

At any rate, the takeaway here: Focus on the threats, not the technicalities. Just because it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck doesn’t mean you won’t get a goose or a swan too.