Incredible, if not insane heat over a massive chunk of the country obliterates March record highs

In brief: An absolutely incredible spring heat wave has taken hold of the West, Central, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic this weekend shattering monthly records from coast to coast. More of it to come. In Texas? Records fell, multiple times in some cases in the Panhandle, West Texas, and near the Red River, with another surge of heat to come this week.

Record obliterating heat

I’m not going to dive too deep into this Western and Central U.S. heat wave from the last several days. I’m going to wait for some of the final numbers to be compiled and then do a bit of a recap. But I would be foolish to not at least touch on this. The reality is that this was an extraordinary event by any measure. Hundreds of records smashed daily.

(Daniel Swain on Twitter/X)

When it comes to events of this scope and magnitude (breaking April records in March, for example), there are very few analogs. In recent years, the only thing really comparable in North America was probably the insane Pacific heatwave of 2021. According to coolwx.com, March 19-22 had the greatest number of hot temperature records recorded of any days since 2010. Daniel’s map above was from Saturday, with monthly hot temperature records being set from SoCal through southern Minnesota. Even on Sunday at the same time, we had numerous monthly records ongoing too, over an even wider segment of the country.

Unofficial monthly record warm temperatures for March on Sunday extended from Maryland to Nevada. (Coolwx.com)

Monthly records don’t typically fall multiple times in a week over multiple locations from coast to coast. Clearly, this is an exceptionally rare event and one that is becoming more likely, more plausible, and more common in a warming climate. Dozens and dozens of additional hot temperature records will be set over the next 5 days.

For more of the day-to-day coverage on this heat event, check out Alan Gerard’s Balanced Weather.

Texas weekly outlook

As we’re trying to regularly do, here’s a look ahead at the weather across Texas for the upcoming week.

Let’s start with rain, or a lack of it.

Rain? No rain. (Pivotal Weather)

Let’s not expect much in the way of rain. We need it. Especially in South Texas. The situation in Corpus Christi is dire, and we’re planning to do something on that over at Space City Weather, hopefully by next week. But legitimately: We need rain.

The recent record heat has not helped.

Amarillo: 98° on Saturday establishes a new all-time record for March, breaking 96° from March 1907.

Lubbock: 98° on Saturday is a new March record as well, breaking the old record set the previous day, which tied the original record set on March 11, 1989 (96°).

Midland: 99° on Sunday was a new March record breaking the old record set on Saturday which broke the previous record of 97° set on March 31, 1946.

El Paso: 96° on Sunday broke the old March record of 95° set the previous day, which broke the prior March record of 94° set on Friday, which broke the original March record of 93° set on March 22, 2017. Another chance to do it comes Thursday.

You want more? Ok then.

Abilene: After coming up one degree short on Saturday, Abilene matched their all-time March heat record on Sunday with 98°, last set on March 21, 1916.

San Angelo: They broke their record for March on Saturday by hitting 100° and then matched the previous record of 98° on Sunday. That record has stood since St. Patrick’s Day 1908.

Wichita Falls: They fell 1 degree short of the record for March on Saturday when it hit 99°, so the March 27, 1971 record of 100° still stands. They have another opportunity on Thursday.

So for West Texas, the Panhandle, and parts of North Texas this will be the March heat event of record now. And we may not be done yet. Another surge of heat arrives this week, with daily records already forecast or close to forecast across much of Texas on Thursday.

Record or near-record highs forecast on Texas for Thursday. (NOAA WPC)

Basically, it’s a week of heat ahead.

For those keeping track of the 90 degree derby in the Texas Triangle region

Dallas: 1
Austin (Downtown): 3
San Antonio: 4
Houston (IAH): 0

High pressure will build in through the week, allowing for this heat to percolate. Friday may see a chance at 90+ or record highs in Houston ahead of a cool front that will allow for slightly more comfortable weather across the Central U.S. late this week and weekend.

Unfortunately, however, we may see the heat surge again after the weekend and heading into next week. We may see a wetter pattern return to Texas after that. Fingers crossed.

Wild weather across the country with hazards from snow to severe weather to wind to record temperatures

In brief: A massive storm is impacting most of the eastern half of the country today and tomorrow with hazards ranging from possibly record snow to fire weather to strong winds and severe weather. Meanwhile, the West is likely to see arguably the strongest early season heat wave ever recorded there begin this week.

There is a whole bevvy of issues across the country this weekend. Let’s walk through them.

Severe weather Sunday

The Ohio Valley and mid-Mississippi Valley are under an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) today for severe storms, as are portions of Georgia, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

An enhanced risk (3/5) covers a wide swath of the Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. (NWS SPC)

While there may be an early element of tornado risk with the storms today, the primary concern will be damaging winds as a line of potent storms cruises south and east later today and tonight. Wind gusts of 50 to 70 mph are likely in the stronger storms, along with an isolated tornado. This should be a QLCS type system, which tend to be notorious for damaging winds in spots and brief “spin up” tornadoes that can cause narrow corridors of damage.

Severe weather Monday

That line of storms will move east of the Appalachians on Monday. What should occur is development of showers and thunderstorms over the Carolinas in the later morning and early afternoon, racing south to north. An additional squall line (another QLCS) will push into the Mid-Atlantic in the afternoon hours. You’ll see severe weather with this, including the potential for damaging winds with the squall line and a somewhat higher-end tornado risk, particularly in the Carolinas and Virginia. As such, a moderate risk (level 4/5) has been issued for the Mid-Atlantic.

Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be a serious concern Monday from the Carolinas into southern Pennsylvania. (NOAA SPC)

We don’t see too many moderate risks in this region. In fact, the last day 2 moderate risk from Richmond north appears to have been in 2013. South of there, it appears to be 2021.

Blizzard conditions

On the northern edge of this storm, a massive snowstorm is going to bury parts of Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan.

Upwards of 1 to 3 feet of snow is possible in the Northwoods of Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan. (NWS)

The snowstorm has backed off a good bit for parts of western Wisconsin and Minnesota based on recent model runs. But it has definitely escalated for the U.P. Surprisingly, the 2-day snowfall record in Marquette, Michigan is 31.9 inches in March 1997, almost 29 years to the day. We could blow past that with this storm.

Northern Michigan will also see significant snow. (NWS Gaylord)

The 2-day snow total in Wausau, Wisconsin may also be threatened (22.1 inches in March 1959). Notice how these big snow records seem to align in March. Some of winter’s biggest storms happen in March. The northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan is going to be right on the edge of more nuisance (6 to 12 inch) snows and significant (12 to 24+ inch) snows, including Traverse City through Sault Ste. Marie.

Blizzard warnings are hoisted from the U.P. back west into southern Minnesota, almost all of Iowa, and parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska. While snow totals will be lower to the west, the winds may be stronger. Wind is the main component of Blizzard Warnings, as the criteria are falling or blowing snow, wind gusts, and low visibility. Snow intensity and amounts are not considered.

Wind and fire weather on the Plains

On the backside of this storm, high wind warnings and red flag warnings are in effect now.

Widespread 60-65 mph wind gusts are expected from the Texas Panhandle into Nebraska. (Pivotal Weather)

Fire weather looks especially concerning in the Texas Panhandle and New Mexico. There is a critical fire weather risk there, and the Texas A&M Forest Service forecast fire weather risk for today is extreme in those areas.

Critical fire weather risk is posted for New Mexico and most of West Texas. (NOAA SPC)
Fire danger as forecast for Sunday by the Texas A&M Forest Service. (TAMU Forest Service)

With this area in drought, the combination of dry fuels, low humidity, and strong winds makes today and parts of Monday important fire weather days in this region.

Cold weather behind the storm

While the cold behind this storm won’t be too extreme, a few records are at risk in the Midwest, Mid-South, and Southeast tomorrow and Tuesday mornings. In addition, frost and freeze advisories and warnings are posted across the Southeast and Mid-South as the growing season has started in some of these areas.

Tuesday morning lows will be quite cold in the Southeast, with frost likely in spots and a freeze likely as you creep northward. (Pivotal Weather)

Cold will be short-lived as we see a big warm up into next weekend. Temps will stay fairly cool in the Northeast and Lakes.

Western heat wave

As noted last week, a pretty epic, if not historic heat wave is going to clamp down on the Western U.S. this week. Hundreds of record highs will fall this week in the West, including numerous monthly records and numerous “earliest first” records for 90s and 100s.

Phoenix, AZ temperature forecast from NWS this week, including the earliest 105+ on record. (Weather Bell)

In San Francisco, the monthly record temperature is 85 degrees. That will be threatened on more than one day.

San Franciso forecast temperature forecast from NWS for this week. (Weather Bell)

Even Salt Lake City is likely to break past their March temperature record of 80 degrees.

Salt Lake City NWS temperature forecast for this week. (Weather Bell)

This is going to be one of the most intense, if not the most intense early season heat waves in the West on record.

The weather pattern should calm down some later this week and next weekend.

A late Texas weather round-up, winter’s return to the North, and a blistering heat wave on deck in the West

In brief: Today we recap severe weather in Texas earlier this week, as well as take a look ahead to some temperature whiplash. Plus, a major winter storm will target the north, while the West prepares some of the hottest March weather ever recorded there.

Sorry for the lack of posting Sunday through Wednesday. In a word, I was wiped out and consumed by other priorities. So! You get a Thursday afternoon post instead.

Texas!

Quick recap of Texas severe

Just a quick recap of what we saw in Texas, with storms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday and Tuesday night saw some significant severe storms across central and western Texas. One particularly potent storm tracked from about Del Rio, as they often do, east-northeast to Comfort. Hail as large as 4.5 inches (grapefruit size) in diameter was reported near Leakey and Camp Wood in Real County on the way.

(Jordan Elder on X/Twitter)

That storm also briefly produced a tornado east of Del Rio in open land. Another storm produced a brief tornado southeast of Abilene.

(Chad Casey on X/Twitter)

That storm later also produced some pretty big hail in Stephens County, with baseball size hail reported. All in all, it was a fairly active day with some locally significant impacts in parts of Texas.

I will point you to Alan Gerard for a recap of the storm with the *insane* hail in Illinois that tracked into Indiana as well on Tuesday. Numerous other hail reports occurred on Tuesday across the Central U.S. as well.

Looking forward in Texas

It looks quiet now through about Saturday in Texas with nice, albeit hot weather. In fact, the state will see multiple record highs threatened on Saturday the 14th, including a forecast high of 90° in Abilene (record is 91°), 90° in Midland (record is 89°), and 86° in El Paso (record is 85°). Those 90s will spread into Central Texas on Sunday the 15th.

Sunday’s forecast highs with numerous 90s in Texas. (Pivotal Weather)

A cold front will push into the state on Sunday afternoon and evening, and that could produce some thunderstorms, mainly east of I-35 and south of I-20. These storms could have gusty winds, but severe risks look minor at this time and confined mainly to the Piney Woods. But that is going to usher in quite a change in weather on Monday, with highs only in the 60s in Houston and maybe the 50s in Dallas.

Monday’s forecast highs with numerous 50s in Texas. (Pivotal Weather)

A late winter treat (or trick, I guess if you like hot weather early!) Rest assured, by later next week it should turn hotter again.

Winter’s return to the North

For Minneapolis, the largest 2-day snow total this winter was 7.6 inches back in February. If the European model is to be believed, as an example, they could blow that away this weekend. A major winter storm is going to cut across the North. While the details are still being sorted out, this storm will likely bring a stripe of very heavy snow to somewhere from eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, northern Michigan, and central or northern Ontario and Quebec.

(NWS Twin Cities)

This storm is likely to produce blizzard conditions somewhere in that corridor as well, with very strong winds in addition to the heavy snow. Some severe weather is possible south of the wintry part of the storm from Iowa, across the Midwest and Ohio Valley and into parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

The day 3 to 7 hazards map identifies areas of severe risk, strong wind risk, fire risk, heavy snow risk, heavy rain risk, and heat risk. A lot! (NOAA)

Bottom line: Winter is not over, and this could be one of the biggest storms of the season.

Western Heat

You’ll note in the map above that California and Arizona are highlighted in the hazardous heat section for St. Patrick’s Day through the 19th. That is part of a burgeoning heat wave that is going to deliver the potential for dozens of record highs and record warm lows, damagingly early snowpack melt, and a longer-term increase in wildfire risk to the West.

The probability of record high March 500 mb heights in the West is nearly 100% next week, which is an astounding ensemble forecast this far in advance. (Polarwx.com)

From Tuesday through Friday next week, it’s conceivable that we set multiple records for highest March 500 mb heights on record in the West. While this area has experienced a lot of extreme heat events in the 2000s, this one is particularly impressive given the confidence and geographic coverage it will have. The current forecast in Phoenix brings highs to 102° by Wednesday. The earliest 102° day in Phoenix occurred on April 6, 1989. This would beat it by at least 2 weeks.

Phoenix’s forecast looks more like late May than mid-March. (Weather Bell)

There’s a legitimate chance that Phoenix hits 105° at some point next week. The 97° forecast in Las Vegas next Wednesday would also be the earliest there on record, beating the 1989 event as well.

This is going to begin a quick melt of a very unstable and modest snowpack. Every water basin in the West is already below normal on snowpack, or snow water equivalent.

The entire West has below normal snowpack, and the upcoming record March heatwave will decimate the already fragile snowpack. (USDA)

The word “decimate” is appropriate here, and given the extremely contentious and risky Colorado River negotiations and situation, the strain is only going to worsen and stakes only increase higher.

The Monday Texas weather round-up featuring some very wet weather north into the Ohio Valley

In brief: Despite the blizzard and cold weather in the Northeast lately, it’s been mostly warm across the country, with some serious warmth this week as well. A much more active pattern will establish over the middle of the country, including in Texas where heavy rain and severe weather are possible later this week.

Happy Monday, folks. We are now in the throes of meteorological spring. Why the difference between meteorological spring (Mar 1-May 31) and astronomical spring (Mar 20-Jun 21)? Convenience, mostly. And consistency. Astronomical seasons don’t always follow the same dates each year, though they’re fairly close, as they’re tied to the Earth’s tilt and the alignment of the sun over the Equator. So when you hear meteorologists talk about spring, we’re talking about the months of March, April, and May.

And to that end, it has felt like deep spring across much of the country. Over the last week, over 2,000 warm temperature records (max and min) have been set compared to 275 cold records. Over the next 7 days, we have additional record warmth expected, perhaps peaking this Friday where dozens of warm temperature records may be set from the Great Lakes into the South.

Record warmth will be common this week, peaking on Friday in the Lakes, Midwest, Ohio Valley, and South. (NOAA)

Most of the record highs are forecast pretty close to the current records for the date. Some of the record warm lows are already well above their records right now. For example, Binghamton, NY is forecast to be 45 degrees on Saturday morning compared to the record warm low of 39 degrees set in 1974. Detroit is forecast to be 51 on Saturday, compared to the record of 47 set in 2012. It takes a lot to forecast record temperatures that far in advance, but it’s going to be that sort of warm period this week. The only cool part of the country right now looks to be New England, and even that will disappear by midweek.

With warm air is going to come precipitation, and the potential exists for a healthy amount of it from Texas (more below) into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Current rainfall forecasts over the next 7 days are anywhere from 2 to 5 inches across the region.

Rainfall over the next week is expected to exceed 3-4 inches from North Texas into Arkansas with locally higher amounts possible from Texas into the Ohio Valley. (Pivotal Weather)

In addition, there will be some severe weather possible in the Central U.S., with a couple of days highlighted between North Texas and Missouri.

A slight risk (2/5) is posted for Wednesday between the DFW Metroplex and the Missouri/Arkansas border. (NOAA SPC)

It appears that this active weather pattern is likely to persist beyond this week into next week as well, so prepare to start hearing about at least the risk of flooding eventually.

Texas weather this week

Focusing in on Texas, we know two things about this week: It will be a pattern change to stormy and will continue to be quite warm. Beyond that, we still have some questions to answer

Rainfall/Storms

First, over the course of the week, it will become increasingly stormy over parts of the state. Beginning Tuesday night, we could start to see a couple thunderstorms develop in the Panhandle and north-central plains of the state. Into Wednesday afternoon and evening, the chances of storms spread to the east, and parts of North Texas and East Texas are highlighted in severe weather risk for Wednesday.

Severe weather risk ranges from marginal (1/5) to slight (2/5) from parts of Hill Country through DFW to the Red River on Wednesday. (NOAA SPC)

This includes the Metroplex. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a couple stronger storms just outside this highlighted area too, down into Hill Country. Additional rounds of storms should follow Thursday, with a focus drifting back into West Texas. Strong to severe storms may attempt to develop again on Friday in Central Texas up into North Texas.

Severe weather risks shifts west on Thursday, then back to North Texas on Friday. (NOAA SPC)

More numerous showers and thunderstorms may affect the area from the Permian Basin into northeast Texas on Saturday. Active weather should continue in much of the state after this, perhaps with the exception of El Paso and the Panhandle.

All told, total rainfall is going to vary widely across the state. Most areas outside of El Paso and the Big Bend and Panhandle should see at least a half-inch of rain. Areas from about Laredo and Del Rio northward into San Antonio, Austin, Waco, and Dallas should see at least 1 to 2 inches of rain. I would expect at least an inch on either side of that in Hill Country, the Piney Woods, and College Station through Victoria. Embedded within those areas of rain will be isolated higher amounts. Some places could easily see 5 or 6 inches of rain or even more before all is said done. Consider the map below an average for what to expect across the state.

The average total rainfall should be highest in North Texas and northeast Texas, but there will almost certainly be isolated areas in Hill Country or the Valley that see higher amounts. (Pivotal Weather)

Currently, most of Texas is not highlighted in any WPC risks for flooding. That being said, we’ll almost certainly see a few areas of flash flooding pop up. There will be a healthy amount of atmospheric moisture available in the state from Wednesday through the weekend, so these storms should have little trouble tapping into the heavy rain potential if they align themselves appropriately. The state has been so dry lately though that most of this rain will be beneficial.

Temperatures

It’ll be quite the warm week across Texas, with highs expected to be in the mid-80s in Houston, low to mid-80s in Dallas, and mid to upper 80s in San Antonio and Austin. Temperatures will be a little bouncier in West Texas, with Wednesday and especially Saturday looking cooler.

Austin forecast temperatures this week look more like mid-May than early March. (Weather Bell)

Last week’s hottest temperatures in the major Texas triangle cities were 86° on Friday in Houston, 84° in Dallas on Saturday, and 88° in Austin on Wednesday and Saturday. San Antonio wins the prize for first triangle city to 90 degrees, hitting 95° on Thursday. This was the 5th hottest temperature observed in winter in San Antonio going back to 1886.

One of the hottest winter days on record occurred in San Antonio last week. (NOAA/ACIS)

Corpus Christi’s 95 degrees on Thursday was their third hottest winter day on record. Laredo’s 103° was the hottest winter temperature on record there, tying the mark hit in 2011 and 1986. A preliminary all-time U.S. hot record for winter was set on Thursday at Falcon Dam in the Valley at 106°. The data is preliminary and has to be vetted for accuracy before we can officially put in the books.

The hope is that some of this rain will reach drought-stricken parts of the state. South Texas needs it desperately.