Tropical Depression 2 trying to make the best of a challenging environment in the Gulf

In brief: TD 2 is a sloppy looking system in the Gulf, and while we should keep an eye on things, it does not appear as if this will deliver significant impacts to the Gulf Coast. We explain what’s at play here. We also take a look at a localized but notable flash flooding risk in New Jersey and NYC tomorrow.

First of all, thank you to all the new subscribers we’ve picked up in the last 24 hours. Thanks for joining us here. Our bread and butter is daily tropical weather discussions, but we also chime in on other significant weather as well. Eric is based in Houston, where I was for the last 14 years, and I am now based in southern New England. Together, we’ll keep you covered through hurricane season and beyond.

Let’s get down to business.

NHC forecast as of Monday morning. (NOAA/NHC)

Tropical Depression 2 formed yesterday in the eastern Gulf. Over the next couple days, it’s expected to drift westward, becoming a tropical storm, possibly as soon as today. The satellite image of TD 2 this morning is far from impressive.

(WeatherFront)

That’s basically a half-cyclone right now. That hasn’t stopped systems from becoming technically tropical or storms or hurricanes, but it does speak to limitations that they will face. In this case, both shear and dry air are going to play a major role in capping TD 2 at mid-tropical storm intensity at best I believe.

Mid-level moisture is limited with TD 2, and the system itself is surrounded by dry air on virtually all sides. (Tropical Tidbits)

If you’re looking for a beefier tropical system, you want to see a lot less dry air than the model above shows. So right away, TD 2 is going to have to deal with continued dry air. This is not something that will change much between now and the end of TD 2’s life cycle. Additionally, while TD 2 is over warm water and dealing with minimal wind shear right now, that’s going to pick up significantly in the coming days. It’s likely that the eastern side of the storm gets blasted by northeasterly wind shear tomorrow or Wednesday, which should further limit development.

(Tropical Tidbits)

And the vast majority of tropical modeling, as well as Google Deep Mind’s 1,000 member forecast ensemble keep TD 2’s intensity at or below middle grade tropical storm levels. Interestingly, if you look at the various ensembles, you also see a lot of them “losing” Tropical Depression 2 before it gets to Texas.

Google Deep Mind’s storm tracks, showing most of them ending before the storm arrives in Acadiana. (Tomer Burg)

In other words, we are seeing the bulk of the modeling say that TD 2 is going to run its course before getting to Lafayette or Lake Charles. The 5 to 10 percent or so that survive west of Louisiana are the ones coming to Texas. So it may look as if the modeling is all pointed right at Texas, but in reality, that’s mainly saying the remnant is. And when you look at the NHC forecast at the top, you’ll notice the intensity is dropped to depression when it makes it to Texas. Frankly, that may be generous given what we see this morning. It may be that this system ends up arriving as a shell of itself in Texas.

So what will TD 2 do? Assuming it does indeed become a tropical storm by tomorrow, we would probably see a bit of gusty wind on the coast of the Florida Panhandle, along with rain today and tomorrow. Winds as I write this are not gusting much beyond 20 mph there, however. As the system tracks to the west and as the northeasterly wind shear kicks in, most of the rain from TD 2 will migrate over the open Gulf waters.

Total rainfall from the European model (Pivotal Weather)

You can see above how the bigger totals of 5 to 10 inches remain way offshore. The heaviest on land rain is likely to be today into tomorrow for the Florida Panhandle and perhaps in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, near where TD 2 will make a close pass Wednesday evening. Some localized flash flooding is possible, but overall this looks like a relatively gentle impact to most portions of the Gulf Coast.

There are still a handful of model ensemble members that track the system a little farther south, a scenario we discussed yesterday and still won’t completely take off the table. It’s becoming highly unlikely though. And even in those cases, it’s likely that the intensity of TD 2, or Bertha, would be capped by the aforementioned wind shear and dry air, and currently about 6 of the 1,000 Google Deep Mind ensemble members bring the storm to hurricane intensity. This was around 100 or so yesterday if I recall correctly.

So for the Florida Panhandle through Mobile, expect heavy rain and some locally gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force on the immediate coast. From Mobile through New Orleans, you’ll see some occasional downpours and perhaps breezy conditions but not much else. South of New Orleans through Acadiana could see some heavy rains midweek, along with breezy conditions. From Acadiana through Texas, impacts should be minimal and mostly confined to some hotter temperatures Wednesday as that northeast flow kicks in, as well as perhaps a slight chance of showers by Friday. We do not expect flooding concerns to renew in Texas.

That’s as of right this moment. Forecasts can and do change, and we encourage you to continue monitoring the forecast as the week progresses. But we do not expect a dramatic change in TD 2’s outlook right now.

Elsewhere, the Atlantic is quiet!

Northeast/Mid-Atlantic storms & flooding

Another round of storms and potential flooding returns to the East Coast tomorrow, and I am cautiously watching the corridor between Philly and New York City for flooding risks. The area is under a slight risk (level 2/4) for flash flooding, but that does not currently include New York City.

Flash flooding risks are slight (level 2/4) in the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow. (NOAA)

Some of the higher resolution model guidance is perking up about potential flash flooding north of I-195 in New Jersey. Flash flood guidance, or the amount of rain needed in 6 hours to trigger flash flooding is around 1 to 1.5 inches in urban northern New Jersey.

6 hour flash flood guidance in the Mid-Atlantic. (NOAA)

Depending on exactly how things set up tomorrow, it is possible that the flash flooding risk is a bit higher than currently presumed, particularly in the New York City metro area. Just something to pay attention to in that area.

In addition to flooding, there is an enhanced risk of severe weather, level 3/5 in areas west of I-95 tomorrow and a slight risk (2/5) elsewhere. Severe watches are likely on Tuesday as well.

Invest 91L likely to develop into something in the Gulf but exactly what kind of something remains elusive

In brief: Today we look at the increased development odds of Invest 91L, as well as the couple scenarios that are on the table. Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor Invest 91L closely over the next couple days.

Editor’s Note: Invest 91L was reclassified as Tropical Depression 2 as our post was published.

(NOAA/NHC)

Let’s check out Invest 91L this morning.

Invest 91L looking modest in the eastern Gulf this morning. (WeatherFront)

Not terrible. Still not a tropical system, but we’re slowly getting there. The NHC odds have increased to 80 percent this morning.

(NOAA/NHC)

Modeling is getting a bit more aggressive with developing this into a formal entity. Of the 1,000 Google Deep Mind ensemble members, almost all 1,000 are now developing the system. Looking closer at the operational version of GDM, we can see a general track spread that either hugs or stays just south of the Gulf Coast.

Most operational GDM members keep 91L offshore, allowing it to develop into a moderate tropical storm. (Google Deep Mind)

When looking at the possible intensity of 91L, the vast majority of guidance, including about 75 percent of the 1,000 member ensemble keep this a tropical storm. Most tropical modeling aside from Google agrees on this as well.

Intensity forecasts from Google’s Deep Mind and from the other tropical models. (Google/Tropical Tidbits)

There are a couple GDM members that bring 91L up to hurricane intensity. And when you look at the European ensemble, we see this as well to a much more substantial extent.

The European physical ensemble is quite aggressive with tropical development from Invest 91L, with at least 20 percent of its members bringing it to a hurricane as it comes west. (Weathernerds.org)

It is worth noting that some changes were made to the European ensemble this past spring, so we’re kind of working with an unknown quantity, at least operationally right now. The AIFS ensemble is notably much, much weaker than the Euro physical. This feels like a bit too much of an outlier to me to take seriously right now, but obviously folks on the Texas and Louisiana coasts should keep watch on this.

In terms of the overall environment that Invest 91L, if you look at the operational European model (not the ensemble), you’ll see that generally, Invest 91L will be operating within a little cocoon of favorable moisture levels, but dry air is not far away, surrounding the cocoon on all sides.

Mid-level atmospheric moisture forecast for Tuesday (Tropical Tidbits)

How about wind shear? Well, there’s going to be a good bit of northerly or northeasterly shear as well in the Gulf. That should help hold it back some. But it may also allow it to track a little farther offshore, increasing its residence time over warmer water, which could allow for a little bump in potential intensity. The upper pattern does in fact offer that as a possibility, with strong high pressure over northern Texas, it could allow a farther south and west track to occur.

The upper pattern provides a good bit of uncertainty over the next few days in terms of how Invest 91L may track. (Tropical Tidbits)

So what’s the story here? I think we can expect gradual development over the next 36 hours from Invest 91L, possibly becoming a “potential tropical cyclone” by later today or Monday morning. The smart money right now would be on a mid-grade tropical storm tracking into Louisiana. However, there is a not so inconsequential minority solution that takes Invest 91L farther south and west, opening the doors to more of a Texas coast outcome, most likely south of Houston.

Bottom line: Gulf interests should be monitoring this system over the next couple days. We may post an update as early as later today. Stay tuned.

Saturday afternoon Gulf check up as development odds nudge up a bit

In brief: Odds of development in the northeast Gulf have increased a good bit since yesterday, however the likely intensity of any system still looks to remain low. We update the rain totals and potential impacts on this Saturday afternoon.

Odds of development are up to 40 percent in the northeast Gulf. (NOAA NHC)

I just want to check in this afternoon, as we have seen some changes in the broader evolution of the Gulf disturbance off the coast of Florida. First, the satellite loop shows what may seem like a pretty well-defined circulation.

(WeatherFront)

And there is, but the pressures are high, the winds are low, and the circulation is broad. So at this point, it’s not as if development is imminent. That being said, we’ve seen a big jump in development odds from the models since yesterday. What had been about 15 to 20 percent risk is now up to a 50 to 60 percent risk on Google’s Deep Mind 1,000 member ensemble.

Google Deep Mind’s 1,000 member ensemble is showing about 60 percent odds of development as the system drifts west just off the Gulf Coast. (TC Atlas)

What has not changed since yesterday is that the system, now dubbed Invest 91L is unlikely to gain much strength. At this point, most model guidance keeps this as a depression or low-end tropical storm. What does that mean? The wind and marine threats, while impactful should be mostly nuisance. At this point even the rain looks to be more nuisance than anything as the bulk of it is expected to remain offshore through Wednesday.

European AIFS ensemble total rainfall through Wednesday. (WeatherFront)

There may be some locally heavy downpours on the immediate Gulf Coast between Sarasota and New Orleans but overall the type of heavy, flooding rain would likely remain over the open Gulf waters.

Beyond midweek, the system is likely to basically fall apart or just nudge inland and dissipate, with some locally heavy rain perhaps in Louisiana or Mississippi as it does so. At this time, it does not appear to be a Texas threat.

Bottom line: Development chances are increasing today, but the ceiling for intensity on this system remains quite low, and the bulk of the rain is likely to fall over the open Gulf. Still, it’s the Gulf Coast in July. Check in with your local weather sources for any updates each day. We’ll keep you posted as well.

Flooding pivots west in Texas, wildfires continue to produce prolific smoke, and the Gulf stays a teensy bit interesting

In brief: Heavy rains continue to pound parts of Texas. Wildfire smoke is choking parts of the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic. And the tropics continue to slow burn in the northeast Gulf with lower-end risks over the next few days.

Texas flooding

This morning’s rains mostly ended up where they had been expected, which was between San Angelo and I-10. Unfortunately, that has led to additional flash flood emergencies this morning for both Sonora and Ozona. This is north and west of yesterday’s catastrophic flooding.

Radar estimated rainfall over the last 24 hours is 3 to 6 inches in these areas. (WeatherFront)

Totals of 3 to 6 inches have been recorded so far. You may be asking why the totals there are so much lower than to the east, yet still prompting flash flood emergencies. As you move toward San Angelo, you get deeper onto the Edwards Plateau, and you run into more of an arid climate. Thus, it takes less rain in some of these areas to generate flash flooding. And 3 to 6 inches of in 12 to 24 hours in a place that averages roughly 20 inches of rain annually can cause major problems. And in both Sonora and Ozona there are reports of water into homes and water rescues ongoing. Eldorado is seeing significant impacts as well. Much like it has the last few days, the rain will need to basically rain itself out over the next few hours. Rainfall tonight is expected to shift even farther north and west as the upper level system gradually loses definition. Whatever the case, this is going to end up being a memorable and very damaging Texas flooding week.

We can start to wrap our minds around what occurred south and east of today’s impacted areas. Here are rain totals for the week.

Rain totals this week. (NOAA)

Some places received over 27 inches of rainfall. I want to wrap some context on this. First, for the latest on the impacts of the flooding on people and communities, the Texas Tribune has been all over things. Second, if you want to learn more about the lengthy history of flooding in Texas, you want to pick up a copy of “Flash Floods in Texas,” by Jonathan Burnett. It’s on backorder at bookshop.org. But it’s a fantastic reference on the many, many types of flooding events that have impacted the state.

Two things can and are true. 1.) Texas flooding is a normal part of life in the state. It’s happened forever. It will continue to happen. The response to the 2025 floods was positive, but the state should be doing more to manage and mitigate it. 2.) Flooding is becoming more likely because of climate change. Slow moving upper lows across Texas are fairly common at times. But the amount of moisture available in the region has been excessively high. At least some of that is due to the increasingly warmer Gulf.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures in recent years. (University of Arizona)

In recent weeks the Gulf has been hovering near all-time record warm levels. It’s still up there. Is the Gulf warm every summer? Yes it is. However, in recent years it has become just a little bit hotter. That is the equivalent of adding icing to an uniced cake. Not sure who would eat an uniced cake, but if you did, you’d still be consuming sugar and calories. But by adding icing, you’ve increased the sugar and calories by a certain percentage. That’s what the warm Gulf means for available atmospheric moisture. In a perfectly stable world, would you have had this flooding event? Probably. But would it have had slightly lower peak rain totals and rain intensities? Yes, probably. Those extra “calories” can mean the difference between a bad flood and a catastrophic one. It’s important to understand this reality in the context of saying “flooding is normal” in Texas. It is, but that’s far from the whole story today.

Wildfires

On the other extreme, rampant wildfires in Ontario continue to choke out parts of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Great Lakes with smoke today. Air quality? Not great!

Hazardous air quality levels exist from the Upper Midwest through the Mid-Atlantic today due to wildfire smoke. (Purple Air)

From Duluth through DC, air quality sits at hazardous levels. Kudos to Major League Baseball and ESPN for moving last night’s Phillies vs Mets game up an hour to avoid the worst smoke. It still looked bad visually, but the difference in observed air quality readings was enough to avoid having to delay the game.

The good news is that air quality will dramatically improve tonight and tomorrow as winds shift and move the smoke to more of a north to south trajectory. Unfortunately, this means Minnesota and parts of the Midwest including Milwaukee and Chicago will likely be back in the smoke by tomorrow night.

Smoke forecast for Saturday afternoon with smoke exiting the East Coast but returning to the Upper Midwest. (WeatherFront)

Wildfires continue apace in Ontario. Suppression efforts should be aided by cooler temperatures and rain chances.

Active wildfires (black) and fire weather conditions (shaded) as of Friday morning in Canada. (Environment Canada)

One of the primary causes of the wildfires was exceptionally hot and dry weather, with several locations very far north setting records earlier this week for highest 500 mb height or hottest temperature of all-time. Another situation where several things are simultaneously true: Wildfires are not abnormal in this part of the world, forest management plays a not inconsequential role in size and scope of fires, and climate change adds the icing to the cake increasing the heat, fire intensity, and potential for fire starts.

And don’t look now, but we have new fires going in the West, especially Oregon today as well.

New fire starts in Oregon are highlighted in yellow. (Oregon Emergency Management)

Multiple new fires have started with lightning a culprit in that area. Hotter and drier weather next week may exacerbate some of these fires.

Tropics

The NHC continues with about a 20 percent chance of development in the northeast Gulf over the next few days. This is fine for now. Over the next couple days, about 18 percent of Google’s 1,000 member ensemble develops this system into a low-end one.

(TC Atlas)

Of the 18 percent of members, most of them go to a strong depression or weak tropical storm at best. And that’s probably a longshot. What’s more likely is that we see a sloppy, rain-laden system over the northeast Gulf that perhaps drifts west and weakens. The NBM blend through Wednesday shows heavy rain off the coast of Florida, with locally heavy rain from Tampa into the Big Bend and Panhandle.

Forecast NBM rainfall through Wednesday. (WeatherFront)

Rain would be generally welcome here, so all in all, this would probably be a good system on net.