Quiet tropics, but watching another flooding risk in the Northeast this week

In brief: The tropics look quiet over the course of the next week or two. Meanwhile, a stubborn, slow-moving storm is likely to bring heavy rain and some flash flooding back into the Northeast this week, perhaps into Upstate New York and southern New England.

Just a quick editor’s note for you to let you know that I am now officially a Nutmegger, or a resident of Connecticut in the Westport area. We discussed this at Space City Weather last spring as to why I was relocating from Houston, but in the interest of transparency, if there is an East Coast bias in some of the writing here, this is why. I will try not to do that, and obviously with hurricanes and tropical systems, those will remain the primary focus here.

Tropics on pause for a bit

The good news to start this Sunday is that the tropics are taking a breather after Bertha last week.

Rainfall over the last 7 days ending Sunday morning. (Pivotal Weather)

The next couple weeks look mostly quiet. There is some chance that this week’s nonsense off the East Coast could congeal into something briefly that heads out to sea, but overall we expect the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf to behave through the early days of August. We’re approaching the seasonal ramp in historic activity now, so the stakes get a little higher by about mid-August. For now, we’re good.

Northeast flooding risk

A disturbance is going to track on the downstream side of a major Plains ridge this week, across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. As it does so, the upper level disturbance will basically close off over Western New York and work across Southern New England, eventually pulling out by the end of the week or weekend. Slow moving, closed off upper level low pressure systems are always a headache, and this one should be no different.

Abundant atmospheric moisture hangs around through the end of the week. (Pivotal Weather)

Areas from the Mid-Atlantic into New England and New York should see abundant atmospheric moisture, especially on Tuesday and into Wednesday which should translate to heavy rainfall potential with showers and storms pretty widespread. The slow moving nature of the front and upper level storm system, as well as the potential for a coastal low will likely prolong the rainfall chances perhaps into Thursday and Friday as well.

European model forecast rainfall through Friday evening. (Pivotal Weather)

As of right now, it looks like Tuesday may be the worst day in Upstate and Western/Central New York and the Mid-Atlantic. Tuesday night into Wednesday may be the worst in New England. When all is said and done by Friday, rain totals should be anywhere from 1 to 5 inches, with a few locally higher amounts possible. Spread out over a few days, this will cause some minor flooding, but if a lot of this hits Tuesday into Wednesday, we could be talking about locally more serious flash flooding concerns, depending on exactly where that heaviest rain falls. Much of the region is in a slight risk (level 2/4) for flooding on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Flooding potential is highest from eastern Pennsylvania into New England. (NOAA)

So, just something to be aware of. I imagine we will see a handful of flood watches get issued tomorrow in more flood-prone areas from recent rainfall. At this time, severe storms are not likely. More to come as I’m able!

Bertha hopscotching the western Gulf Coast, heading for its demise tomorrow

In brief: Bertha is skipping along the western Gulf Coast as it heads toward a Texas finish. Impacts will be modest with some welcome rains in South Texas and a few gusty downpours north of there.

To Bertha’s credit, it has managed to hold on and cling to life, albeit barely it seems. This is more like a glorified blob or what we might call an MCS (thunderstorm complex) than a tropical storm, but even maligned tropical systems deserve love too.

(WeatherFront)

Bertha’s center is displaced far from the bulk of its storms, which are currently in the southwestern most blob off the middle Texas coast. Shear continues to pester Bertha, keeping it totally off-kilter, as does drier air over land, hence this “halficane” type look. While some of the elevated oil platfoms offshore have seen gusts of 60 to 80 mph since midnight, the bulk of the action is not quite making it to the surface and current maximum wind gusts are 15 to 25 mph from Galveston through New Orleans.

The bulk of Bertha’s rain is falling over the open Gulf, with a cluster of rather nasty looking storms hugging the northern fringe of the rain shield.

Rain is primarily headed for the Middle and Lower Texas coasts. (WeatherFront)

The bulk of this rain is going to push into the Middle and Lower Texas coasts, with the majority of it likely evaporating once it gets well inland. Hill Country does not need to worry about this, and South Texas is the one part of the state that could really use some rain.

Forecast rain through Sunday. (WeatherFront)

The yellow on the map above shows about 1 inch rainfall totals extending from near Matagorda Bay through Corpus Christi to just south of Laredo and some higher totals once it interacts with the mountains in Mexico. For the Houston area, I wrote about impacts earlier at Space City Weather but they’ll be mostly minor.

But, for the Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts, we’ll likely see some gusty downpours over the area this afternoon as Bertha’s close approach interacts with daytime heating. The steadier rains will increase today south of Matagorda Bay and into the Corpus area. Wind gusts could top off in the 40s mph in spots on the immediate coast but more than likely lower than that, especially as you work inland from the beachfront.

And we can then tie a ribbon on Bertha.

Beyond Bertha we’ve got nothing really in the Atlantic to discuss. A few models are showing risk of a developing system off the Southeast that would quickly scoot out to sea next week. I wouldn’t worry a ton about that one. More tomorrow.

Bertha beginning to slowly decline with very modest impacts to Louisiana and Texas expected

In brief: Bertha is beginning to slowly weaken as it drifts toward Louisiana. Some rain (not a whole lot) is likely in South Texas as Bertha or its remnants approach tomorrow and tomorrow night. Bertha’s remnants are expected to keep moving west to the Pacific side of Mexico by the weekend.

I am short on time today unfortunately, so we’ll keep this brief.

(NOAA/NHC)

Bertha is struggling this morning. The thunderstorms are displaced far, far from the center.

(WeatherFront)

Northeasterly shear seems to be hitting Bertha pretty hard this morning, and winds have dropped from a maximum of 60 mph to 50 mph. Bertha’s future track is relatively unchanged today, with most ensemble members tracking Bertha either along the coast or a little bit offshore.

Google Deep Mind ensemble tracks. (Tomer Burg)

The majority kill off Bertha entirely before it gets to the Texas coast, while a handful keep it going as a depression into South Texas. Either way, Bertha is unlikely to strengthen any further, even if it tracks offshore more. Bertha is also expected to keep moving, with the remnants arriving on the Pacific side of Mexico by later in the weekend. In other words, we do not expect hell to be unleashed on Texas in terms of heavy rainfall, thankfully.

5-day rainfall totals. (Pivotal Weather)

Also, with Bertha’s thunderstorms displaced to the south, this means that as it comes into Texas, it’ll send those rains down to the Middle Texas Coast and hopefully the Corpus Christi area. Far south Texas has not seen a whole heck of a lot of rain this month, so this would be mostly welcome. Hill Country is not expected to be impacted by Bertha. Houston and eastern Texas into western Louisiana will see some indirectly related storms tonight. I wrote about that over at Space City Weather this morning.

But for the most part, as expected, Bertha’s impacts will be primarily nuisance and mostly minor over the next few days. We’ll update later should anything else change.

Bertha likely nearing peak intensity before weakening into Louisiana this week

In brief: Tropical Storm Bertha may be nearing its peak before it begins a steady, if not quick weakening trend on approach to Louisiana. Bertha is expected to dissipate before reaching Texas. Impacts from Bertha will include high tides and some minor tidal flooding perhaps on the Mississippi and southeast Louisiana coasts, as well as locally heavy rain.

Big Bertha

Ok, Bertha isn’t exactly big. But it’s a tropical storm. It’s more like a blob. Or a couple blobs. Or a creepy thing staring at you.

Bertha is frazzled but formidable over the Gulf waters. (WeatherFront)

Bertha is extremely reminiscent of another “B” storm in the Gulf from a few years back, Barry. Barry became a hurricane, or more like a halficane.

Barry in 2019 was a lot like Bertha. (NOAA)

Barry’s center was constantly north of all the thunderstorms. In Bertha’s case, it’s similar. Where’s the center?

(WeatherFront)

The center is visibly exposed north of the thunderstorms and located just south of Destin. The bulk of the wind with Bertha is located under the storms, especially south and east of the center. We are seeing 40 mph wind gusts near Cape San Blas east of Panama City and a 43 mph gust near St. Teresa and Bald Point State Park (which is a beautiful place to visit). So, Bertha’s doing the thing. Maximum sustained winds are around 60 mph, again offshore under the thunderstorms. Bertha is probably near its peak intensity this morning.

(NOAA/NHC)

Bertha is expected to track west northwest for a little while before shifting west and perhaps even west southwest over the immediate coast of Louisiana.

Bertha should be near peak intensity today, and we’re fairly confident of this for two reasons: Wind shear and dry air. Bertha’s going to get attacked on both sides in about 12 to 24 hours. On the eastern flank, northeasterly wind shear. On the western flank, dry air.

Use the slider to compare dry air and wind shear as forecast on Wednesday morning. (Tropical Tidbits)

The combination of these factors in conjunction with a storm that is already just barely holding it together coherently historically leads to rapid weakening. We hear a lot about rapid intensification during hurricane season, something we’ve seen happen more and more often in recent years. But rapid de-intensification may be the story here. Bertha should weaken to a depression by the time it gets west of New Orleans, and frankly, it may be lucky to even have an identity anymore by the time it gets to Lake Charles. There may some additional thunderstorms into western Louisiana or far southeast Texas on Thursday or Friday as the remnants pass through, but even that may be asking a lot.

The main impacts from Bertha to land will be in the form of rain and squally weather. The squalls will produce gusts to tropical storm intensity at times, primarily along the coast east of Vermilion Bay, Louisiana. The heaviest rain should fall in southeast Plaquemines Parish.

Rain totals over the next 5 days. (Pivotal Weather)

Additionally locally heavy rain may fall from Grand Isle west as well as near Mobile Bay. Additionally, waves and tides will increase some across the Gulf Coast, leading to perhaps a 2 to 4 foot peak storm surge in eastern Louisiana, as well as on the Mississippi coast.

(NHC NOAA)

Bottom line: Mostly nuisance impacts from Bertha are expected along the Gulf Coast, particularly in southeastern Louisiana.

No other tropical concerns in the Atlantic at this time.