In brief: Today, a brief post to just offer up some details on the Colorado State hurricane forecast release, as well as a quick update on the weather the next few days.
A muted hurricane season? Maybe.
The most prominent hurricane outlook of 2026 was released today, as Colorado State University’s experts unveiled their expectations for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season. You can read the full report here, or a nice summary from Michael Lowry here. Bottom line? They’re calling for a slightly below average season of activity, which would be the weakest in over a decade. Justifications include the developing El Niño and less warm water in the Atlantic than we’ve seen in several years. The Atlantic MDR, main development region is close to 2025 levels and well off 2023-24 levels, which were extreme.
I will caution that while the Caribbean is also tracking cooler than recent years, the Gulf of Mexico and the subtropical Atlantic are not. In fact, they’re still up near record levels, sometimes above them. So all it takes is the wrong 5 day period for something to come together. Which is why we so often preach that “it only takes one” and that seasonal forecasts are mostly amusing scientific pursuits and less actionable in any meaningful way. Whatever the case, it serves as a reminder that hurricane season is coming, and even in a quiet year, you should prepare accordingly.
Severe weather risks
Severe weather is possible today with a slight risk across the Plains. Large hail is possible from Kansas into southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri this afternoon.
Large hail risks including Topeka, the Little Apple, and St. Joseph, MO. (NOAA SPC)
We see a slightly lower risk of severe storms into Kansas and Oklahoma tomorrow, but there should be another ramp up on Saturday in West Texas.
Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible in any storms on Saturday in West Texas. (NOAA SPC)
A slight risk is in place (level 2/5) from Amarillo to Del Rio for large hail and strong wind gusts in any storms on Saturday.
Subsequent severe weather risks are going to follow in the days after this. Much of the Central U.S. and Plains, including the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mississippi Valley are highlighted on at least 1 or 2 days from Sunday through Wednesday next week for potential severe storms. More to come on that.
Heavy rain risks
A large swath of the country into Ontario and Quebec are in the crosshairs of a solid 1 to 4 inches of rain over the next week. Model guidance shows the potential for isolated pockets of 4-7 inches of rain in spots as well. This includes perhaps Texas and the Great Lakes.
Widespread 1 to 4 inch rainfall totals are expected from North Texas into the Great Lakes and southeast Canada over the next week. (Pivotal Weather)
While much of this rain is going to fall over drought-impacted areas, the Great Lakes are already above normal in the soil moisture department. Flooding risk may be slightly higher there than elsewhere.
In brief: Today we tie a bow on the heat wave from March, offer a quick El Niño update, and take a peek at Texas weather over the next few days.
Closing out the heat
With the March numbers finalized, I wanted to just tally things up for you. In March of this year, over 10,000 daily high temperature records were broken, along with nearly 1,700 additional records tied. 8,400 daily warm low temperature records were broken, along with over 1,500 tied. Over 2,500 monthly high temperature records and over 1,200 monthly warm low temperature records were also set or tied in March. Monthly records are those set that break the record for any day in the month.
For context, almost 51,000 daily high temperature records have been set over the course of the last year, so the March records represent nearly 20% of all those records. Meanwhile, 4,300 monthly high temperature records were set over the last year, so March represents approximately 60 percent of all monthly high temperature records over that time period. Really, a remarkable feat.
U.S. Weather Update
No real major issues of note over the next week in terms of temperatures. Now, in terms of precipitation and severe weather, we’ll be watching that a bit closely. More on that in the Texas section below.
Chatter has been building regarding the potential for a massive El Niño event later this year. Models seem to be on board. Ancillary evidence supports it. Not much else to say right now except watch and wait.
El Niño forecast from the ECMWF seasonal ensemble showing all systems go for launch this summer and fall. (ECMWF)
If we do end up in a developing El Niño heading into hurricane season, which certainly seems likely at this point, this would favor muted activity. There’s some speculation out there that it could be an exceptionally weak season, but I think it’s far too early to take comfort in that. We will be getting our first look at important seasonal outlooks soon. I’ll be curious to see how low they go. The reality is that while seasonal forecasts are generally alright, there are still plenty of ways they can fail.
Site note
I have been slowly working through a multi-post series reviewing the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, with all the post-storm reports complete and such. I hope to drop that either later this month or early next month.
Texas weather outlook
Alright, let’s dive into Texas over the next several days. First off, a pretty good deal of precipitation is likely in the state, which is good news. Expect some showers and storms in West Texas today, South Texas on Thursday, East Texas on Friday, and much of Central Texas over the weekend. The sprinkling each day will add up with
The rainfall forecast through early next week shows a good bit of rain in northwest Texas, with a fair amount in Central and Southeast Texas as well. (Pivotal Weather)
In addition to the rainfall, there will be a severe weather threat in Texas this week. Beginning on Thursday in the Panhandle, a marginal risk is in place (level 1/5). Parameters don’t look especially great, but we may see some isolated activity pop on the dryline out there on Thursday. By Friday, I would expect to see perhaps another marginal risk eventually somewhere in the state as storm chances float around. Over the weekend, however, much of North, Central, and parts of West Texas are highlighted in severe risks Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
Much of western and central Texas are highlighted in the equivalent of a slight risk (2/5) for Saturday and Sunday. (NOAA SPC)
The risks are probably a bit higher Sunday and Monday rather than Saturday, but nevertheless there will likely be severe weather risk this weekend in the western 2/3 of Texas with hail, strong winds, and isolated tornadoes all possible.
Temperatures look to be near to slightly above normal. Nothing too crazy in the forecast heat-wise. Rain showers will likely temper daytime highs with clouds and humidity giving a slight boost to nighttime lows (more typical for mid to late May).
Forecast temperatures in Austin over the next week look seasonably warm. (Weather Bell)
Some days may be cooler or warmer depending on rain coverage.
In brief: An absolutely mind-boggling heat wave will finally reach its merciful conclusion this week. It has established thousands of new March temperature records, an event with virtually no modern precedent. Meanwhile, the heat has devastated an already fragile snowpack in the West. We talk about that and have an update on Texas weather…maybe some rain?
Record shattering heat continues
Beginning on roughly March 16th and continuing through yesterday, the U.S. has been absolutely gripped by a record shattering heat wave that has few to no peers in our historical record back to the late 1800s. The geographic scope, intensity, and duration of this event has been absolutely insane. That’s honestly the only word you can use to describe it, insane.
A map of March monthly high temperature records met or exceeded from March 21-25 and the statistics for the entire month through the 25th.
Since the beginning of March, over 1,500 new monthly high temperature records have been established, with over 500 additional monthly records tied (the 495 shown above stops on the 25th and new ones have been met or exceeded since then).
Let’s put this into perspective for a moment. In all of 2025, a hot year mind you, 1,981 monthly high temperature records were set or tied. In all of 2024, just under 2,300 monthly high temperature records were set. In June and July 2021, the last really comparable magnitude heat event to this one, a mere 1,402 monthly records were established.
Some other standout months, most of the warmest on record, that still came up short include October 2024 (673 monthly records), December 2021 (1,154 monthly records), February 2017 (882 monthly records), November 2016 (614 monthly records), June 2012 (912), March 2012 (921), September 2000 (1,095), May 2000 (740), November 1999 (1,182), April 1989 (812), June 1988 (1,001), December 1982 (942), September 1953 (707), December 1939 (1,004), September 1939 (740), August 1936 (658), July 1936 (1,421), July 1934 (880), May 1934 (1,285), June 1933 (671), February 1930 (742).
In other words, there is unlikely any modern comparison to the heat we have seen this month. Phoenix hit 105° for three consecutive days, the hottest on record there for March OR April. Albuquerque’s 91° on March 21 was the hottest for March or April. We could go on and on with this stuff. But it has truly been a remarkable meteorological event to witness. And perhaps a bit frightening in some respects.
Additional record heat is likely today and tomorrow before the pattern really does ease up. A flex of the ridge into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic later this week will allow for a bunch of record warm minimum temperatures but probably very few record highs.
Monday’s forecast records or near-records, as well as a weekly tally of current forecast records or near-records at the top. (NOAA WPC)
Just a remarkably durable, gigantic weather event.
Snowpack woes
Meanwhile, an already bleak snowpack story has been inconceivably worse because of the heat wave.
The majority of the West is dealing with 50% or less of normal snowpack right now. (USDA)
The snowpack has been completely decimated. Even in the relatively better off north, the snowpack is pathetic right now. This is going to strain water supply and likely increase wildfire risk as we head toward summer.
Snowpack water equivalent at the Colorado River headwaters is well below the previous record low. (USDA)
Between the heat and lack of snowpack, we’re heading into a summer where the West is going to be in focus for a lot of serious risk. Again, while a lot of attention is focused on severe weather, hurricanes, and flooding across the nation, it may not be apparent to people just how bad this situation is becoming. The West is going to be a flashpoint for a lot of things in the coming months and years.
Texas outlook
As we often do on Mondays, I want to update our Texas readers on the outlook. First off, last week was a poor week in the rainfall department, as expected. Little to no rain fell across the state.
7-day rainfall estimates across the south-central U.S. (Pivotal Weather)
Drought coverage and intensity continues to expand, especially across South Texas. The good news is that the pattern should become more active in Texas this week, with a system Wednesday/Thursday and then perhaps an even stronger one over the weekend.
Rainfall forecast through later this weekend across Texas shows the potential for 1 to 3 inches, with isolated higher amounts in a few spots. (Pivotal Weather)
This rain will come with thunderstorm chances as well, including some severe risk. Much of interior Texas is in a marginal risk for severe storms on Wednesday, the level 1/5 risk.
Some severe weather is possible from Hill Country into the Metroplex on Wednesday, no foolin’. (NOAA SPC)
The severe risk may be a bit higher this weekend, though the SPC is not currently highlighting Texas. Some of the machine learning severe risk tools are beginning to highlight the weekend.
Colorado State’s machine learning severe probability forecast (left) highlights parts of West and North Texas for severe weather this weekend. Confidence is still too low for an SPC highlight yet, however. (Colorado State Univ)
So that’ll be worth monitoring. At the least, the hope is that some drought-relaxing rains will occur across the state. Temperatures won’t be quite as hot this week as they were last week. Houston never got above 86° last week. Last week, Dallas peaked at 87° after hitting 95° last Sunday. San Antonio and Austin both popped a 90 again this past week.
For the upcoming week, our hottest day looks to be Wednesday with highs around or above 90 in San Antonio and Austin and mid-80s in Houston and Dallas. Much cooler weather may arrive this weekend, with forecasts of 60s and 70s behind Saturday or Sunday’s storm system.
Forecast high temperatures across the largest cities of Texas this week.
Overall, a little bit more typical for spring, albeit still a bit hot.
In brief: An absolutely incredible spring heat wave has taken hold of the West, Central, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic this weekend shattering monthly records from coast to coast. More of it to come. In Texas? Records fell, multiple times in some cases in the Panhandle, West Texas, and near the Red River, with another surge of heat to come this week.
Record obliterating heat
I’m not going to dive too deep into this Western and Central U.S. heat wave from the last several days. I’m going to wait for some of the final numbers to be compiled and then do a bit of a recap. But I would be foolish to not at least touch on this. The reality is that this was an extraordinary event by any measure. Hundreds of records smashed daily.
When it comes to events of this scope and magnitude (breaking April records in March, for example), there are very few analogs. In recent years, the only thing really comparable in North America was probably the insane Pacific heatwave of 2021. According to coolwx.com, March 19-22 had the greatest number of hot temperature records recorded of any days since 2010. Daniel’s map above was from Saturday, with monthly hot temperature records being set from SoCal through southern Minnesota. Even on Sunday at the same time, we had numerous monthly records ongoing too, over an even wider segment of the country.
Unofficial monthly record warm temperatures for March on Sunday extended from Maryland to Nevada. (Coolwx.com)
Monthly records don’t typically fall multiple times in a week over multiple locations from coast to coast. Clearly, this is an exceptionally rare event and one that is becoming more likely, more plausible, and more common in a warming climate. Dozens and dozens of additional hot temperature records will be set over the next 5 days.
As we’re trying to regularly do, here’s a look ahead at the weather across Texas for the upcoming week.
Let’s start with rain, or a lack of it.
Rain? No rain. (Pivotal Weather)
Let’s not expect much in the way of rain. We need it. Especially in South Texas. The situation in Corpus Christi is dire, and we’re planning to do something on that over at Space City Weather, hopefully by next week. But legitimately: We need rain.
The recent record heat has not helped.
Amarillo: 98° on Saturday establishes a new all-time record for March, breaking 96° from March 1907.
Lubbock: 98° on Saturday is a new March record as well, breaking the old record set the previous day, which tied the original record set on March 11, 1989 (96°).
Midland: 99° on Sunday was a new March record breaking the old record set on Saturday which broke the previous record of 97° set on March 31, 1946.
El Paso: 96° on Sunday broke the old March record of 95° set the previous day, which broke the prior March record of 94° set on Friday, which broke the original March record of 93° set on March 22, 2017. Another chance to do it comes Thursday.
You want more? Ok then.
Abilene: After coming up one degree short on Saturday, Abilene matched their all-time March heat record on Sunday with 98°, last set on March 21, 1916.
San Angelo: They broke their record for March on Saturday by hitting 100° and then matched the previous record of 98° on Sunday. That record has stood since St. Patrick’s Day 1908.
Wichita Falls: They fell 1 degree short of the record for March on Saturday when it hit 99°, so the March 27, 1971 record of 100° still stands. They have another opportunity on Thursday.
So for West Texas, the Panhandle, and parts of North Texas this will be the March heat event of record now. And we may not be done yet. Another surge of heat arrives this week, with daily records already forecast or close to forecast across much of Texas on Thursday.
Record or near-record highs forecast on Texas for Thursday. (NOAA WPC)
Basically, it’s a week of heat ahead.
For those keeping track of the 90 degree derby in the Texas Triangle region
High pressure will build in through the week, allowing for this heat to percolate. Friday may see a chance at 90+ or record highs in Houston ahead of a cool front that will allow for slightly more comfortable weather across the Central U.S. late this week and weekend.
Unfortunately, however, we may see the heat surge again after the weekend and heading into next week. We may see a wetter pattern return to Texas after that. Fingers crossed.
