Milton begins to bear down on Florida while growing further in size

Headlines

  • Milton remains a powerful category 4 hurricane, expanding in size.
  • The track should take it somewhere between Tampa Bay and Cape Coral late this evening.
  • Widespread impacts are expected on the west (and east) coasts of Florida, as well as inland with power outages, flooding from rainfall, wind damage, and storm surge.
  • The worst of the surge will impact near and just south of where Milton’s center crosses the Florida coast. A 10 to 15 foot surge is likely in that nearby area, with significant surge beyond that as well, down to Fort Myers Beach or even farther south.
  • 12 to 16 inches of rain will cause significant flash flooding between Tampa and Daytona.
  • Isolated tornadoes are possible.

Hurricane Milton is beginning to impact Florida directly now. Outer rain bands are moving ashore, and the bands offshore definitely look pretty nasty with possible waterspouts. We’re also beginning to see how Milton’s asymmetry will lead to substantially higher rain totals along and north of the path of the center.

Hurricane Milton is beginning to accelerate toward Florida while becoming a larger storm in size. (Tropical Tidbits)

The winds are currently down to 155 mph, making Milton a top end category 4 storm. Hurricane-force winds extend out 30 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend out 125 miles, still reasonably close in size to yesterday’s reports. Further expansion of the wind field is expected today. Basically, as Milton’s top end winds drop, it’s moderate to strong winds will expand to cover a larger area. It’s a poisonous trade off, and while it’s accurate to say that Milton will “weaken” today, it’s also accurate to say it is becoming somewhat more dangerous.

Hurricane Milton is currently following the NHC path closely, which will bring it uncomfortably close to Tampa Bay and probably ashore between Tampa Bay and Cape Coral tonight. (NOAA NHC)

The track is pretty straightforward. Milton will continue northeast over the next 12 hours before beginning to turn more to the east-northeast as it crosses Florida. Milton is going to undergo what we call extratropical transition. Basically, since we’re in autumn, with a big cold front sweeping in, Milton will be absorbed into the jet stream.

Here’s how Milton will look 20,000 feet up as it gets intertwined with a cold front and ushered out to sea. (Tropical Tidbits)

On the one hand, this isn’t great because it will lead to an expansion in the wind field as it crosses Florida, and it will also lengthen the wind, as the backside of the storm will continue to have strong wind moving across Florida. On the other hand, this will help the post-storm recovery weather be somewhat cooler and less humid. That cannot go without saying.

Bottom line: A major hurricane with a growing wind field and long duration of wind will be likely tonight and tomorrow morning across Florida, particularly near and north of the track.

Will Milton avoid the Tampa Bay disaster? It’s possible. Most modeling currently takes it south of Tampa Bay, uncomfortably close and within the “margin of error” but still skewed to the south. Here’s the GFS operational forecast model trend of the last several runs, with the “X” indicating Milton’s actual center point.

The GFS model has been aggressive with a hit on Tampa Bay, but it’s verifying slightly farther south than the model expected. This opens the door to a landfall between Sarasota and Cape Coral, but it does not rule out Tampa; a couple wobbles north and it’s back on track toward there. (Brian Tang/SUNY Albany)

You can see how Milton has begun to drift off course relative to most recent GFS runs, or at least on the south side of guidance. I chose the GFS because it has been rather consistent in showing a hit very near Tampa Bay. These trends indicate that there is some potential the landfall point may be coming south. Would I sound an all-clear for Tampa? Not at all; this is still within the margin of error as I said. But if you want good news in Tampa specifically, this may be it. Unfortunately someone has to get the surge. And the area between Sarasota and Cape Coral may be at highest risk now for a 10 to 15 foot surge. The peak surge forecast has nudged southward a bit today.

A peak surge of 10 to 15 feet is currently expected between Anna Maria Island and Boca Grande, but there is some risk that could nudge even a little farther south today. (NOAA NHC)

A very bad storm surge will come in on the Suncoast and south to the Lee Island Coast. Where the worst comes in will be dictated by exactly where the center goes, something we’ll monitor today.

A high risk (level 4/4) of excessive rain and flooding is posted for most of central Florida, including the entire I-4 corridor, Daytona, Tampa, and Sarasota. (NOAA WPC)

Heavy rains of 12 to 16 inches continue to look likely across the I-4 corridor which will produce significant, possibly damaging flash flooding. A high risk (level 4/4) is posted for this region for that flooding. Additionally, isolated tornadoes will be possible.

Bottom line: Milton remains a serious threat to cause significant damage and disruption on the west-central coast of Florida with flooding rains and power outages inland. We will update again around or just before the 5 PM ET advisory.

Milton is a category 5 storm again as it barrels toward Florida

Headlines

  • Milton has returned to category 5 intensity and increased in size by 33 percent since this morning.
  • Landfall is still expected late tomorrow night on Florida’s west coast. Some track adjustments were made perhaps nudging it a bit to the south today.
  • Surge remains the biggest concern with terrible surge expected between Sarasota and Port Charlotte and very bad surge, still just under Ian levels south of there through Fort Myers. But it’s getting a bit too close for comfort.
  • Tampa’s surge impacts will depend on the exact track of the storm, which remains tenuous.
  • Strong winds will pound the coast and inland areas as well with widespread power outages likely, particularly near and north of the center.
  • Flooding rains will fall along and north of the center’s track, right along the I-4 corridor where up to 12 to 16 inches of rain may occur.
  • East coast locations will see impacts as well with hurricane warnings now posted from the First Coast through the Space Coast to the Treasure Coast.

Hurricane Milton has fluctuated back upwards this afternoon, and it has once again attained category 5 intensity.

Milton is just an absolute textbook storm off the Yucatan of Mexico. (Colorado State CIRA)

Maximum sustained winds are in a small area near the center as strong as 165 mph now. Hurricane-force winds extend out 30 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend out 140 miles. This is now about 33 percent larger in size than it was this morning and 75 percent larger than yesterday. This was why we were concerned. Milton is now a formidable storm in terms of size as well. And it will grow further before landfall tomorrow night.

Milton’s track is virtually unchanged from previous forecasts. (NOAA NHC)

There was potentially (and I say potentially VERY cautiously here) good news for Tampa Bay today. Milton wobbled off track some to the southeast. This has now shifted the track guidance somewhat to the south. While this may be good news for Tampa ultimately, it is not good news for places like Sarasota or Venice or possibly Charlotte Harbor. Those areas may now be closer to maximum storm surge. Charlotte Harbor for instance has seen its maximum potential storm surge increase from 6 to 10 to 8 to 12 feet. This is now at Ian levels in some spots there. Surge of 8 to 12 feet is now also expected as far south as Bonita Beach. This is shy of Ian levels, but it’s getting a little more uncomfortable.

Surge forecasts have increased in portions of the Lee Island coast, still shy of Ian levels in most cases but uncomfortably high nonetheless. (NOAA NHC)

If you live south of Venice and north of Naples, have yourself ready to bolt tomorrow morning toward Miami if this thing keeps nudging southward. It is getting a bit more uncomfortably close than hoped.

For Tampa, you just need to watch and hope for the best now. It remains entirely possible that Milton comes back north some, in which case a Tampa Bay landfall and catastrophic surge is even more in play. It’s just simply too close for comfort still.

For everyone on the Florida west coast south of Clearwater, this will be a pretty rough storm in terms of wind and surge. If you have not evacuated and are in a zone ordered to do so, please reconsider, and please check on anyone who may not be able to evacuate or is being stubborn about it. Surge is the deadliest concern. In most cases, hiding from the wind will be the best course of action elsewhere.

Hurricane warnings have been expanded today to include all of St. Lucie County. Hurricane watches have been hoisted southward to the Palm Beach County line. Tropical storm warnings now include the Bahamas, all of South Florida, and much of the Georgia coast. Storm surge warnings have also been expanded accordingly, and there’s now the expectation of a 3 to 5 foot surge from Sebastian Inlet north to near Jacksonville. If Milton’s track slips farther south, this surge would also slip farther south, so folks from Palm Beach County up through St. Lucie County should be monitoring trends closely.

We get a lot of questions about wind risk for XYZ. Consider this map (which you can enlarge) a reasonable worst case scenario for what peak winds could be at a given location.

Click to enlarge this map of the NWS Wind Risk outlook from Milton showing hurricane force winds (red and purple) and tropical storm force winds (yellow and orange). (NOAA NWS)

The south side of the storm will be primarily surge and some wind. The north side of the storm will be wind, some surge, and torrential rainfall. A high risk of flooding continues to be in effect tomorrow in Florida along and north of I-4.

Rainfall is forecast to be torrential along the I-4 corridor with 12 to 16 inches possible as Milton plows through. (NOAA WPC)

This has slipped a bit south since this morning also, and now the heaviest rain risks align with the I-4 corridor almost perfectly. Any further southward adjustment will take the heavy rain farther south also.

And of course, isolated tornadoes are always possible with storms of this size and intensity.

The bottom line: A complex, multi-hazard storm is headed to Florida. It will impact the west coast hardest but it won’t spare the east coast entirely. The biggest concern is storm surge, which is likely to be worst between Sarasota and Fort Myers. For areas south it’s still shy of Ian levels, but it’s nudging ever closer. For areas between Sarasota and Cape Coral, it will likely be worse than Ian. Again, this is a dangerous, historic storm, and it’s one that you should not stick around to observe and ride out if that’s possible. We will update again tomorrow morning or late tonight if the track shifts significantly.

Milton growing in size, fluctuating in intensity, and still targeting Florida’s west coast with a major hurricane strike tomorrow

Headlines

  • Milton will fluctuate in intensity over the next 18 to 24 hours, perhaps once again becoming a category 5 storm for a time today.
  • Milton is growing in physical size, with an expanding wind field likely to help lock in significant storm surge when it makes landfall tomorrow night.
  • For areas between Tampa Bay and Venice, this may be your version of Ian, with devastating storm surge and strong winds.
  • For Tampa Bay, the track is still much too close for comfort with equal odds of it going just north of the bay (bad) or just south of the bay (bad, but less bad)
  • Major freshwater flooding is a possibility due to 10 to 15 inches of rain that may fall near and north of the I-4 corridor, including Tampa, Orlando, and Ocala.
  • Inland areas will see hurricane force winds and potential for substantial power outages.
Hurricane Milton is still expected to come ashore tomorrow night somewhere between Cape Coral and Cedar Key. (NOAA NHC)

Hurricane Milton bottomed out sometime yesterday evening with a sub-900 mb pressure, the type of storm we have only seen a handful of times historically. Tentatively it is the 5th strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic, but we’ll see what happens from here and in the postseason analysis before that gets firmed up. But the takeaway: Milton is not just a powerful storm, it is a historic one.

Milton underwent an eyewall replacement cycle overnight. In a nutshell: That’s when a hurricane pauses its intensification, takes a breath, and typically grows a bit in size. Milton did just that, knocking its winds back to 145 mph, raising its pressure, but also expanding its tropical storm force wind field from 80 to 105 miles. Milton will continue to grow in physical size as it comes northeast today and tomorrow.

The sun rises on Hurricane Milton Tuesday morning. (College of DuPage)

Milton will continue on a northeasterly path now. This will carry it into the west coast of Florida tomorrow night. Exactly where in Florida it crashes ashore is still to be determined. Modeling seems to be honing in on the area between Clearwater and Sarasota, but given the typical error 36 to 48 hours ahead of landfall, there’s still a wide berth here.

For Tampa Bay’s surge zones: This remains much, much too close of a call to risk riding out. Is there a chance this goes just south of Tampa? Yes. In that case, Milton will probably be damaging but not devastating specifically in Tampa Bay. But you’re talking literally a few wobbles or something like 5 miles of track shift, things that cannot be predicted making that difference. Assume the worst, hope for the best.

The surge forecast remains about 10 to 15 feet in Tampa Bay and just south, including Sarasota, Longboat Key, and Venice. (NOAA NHC)

For areas south of Tampa Bay, things are locking in now unfortunately. This includes Sarasota, Venice, Longboat Key, and elsewhere. This may be your version of Hurricane Ian. The surge south of there into Charlotte Harbor, Punta Gorda, Cape Coral, and Fort Myers will be bad, at 6 to 10 feet, which is significantly lower than was seen in Ian but will be quite significant on its own. The bottom line: This is a terribly ugly storm surge forecast up the coast from where Ian hit in 2022. We cannot stress enough to try to evacuate if ordered, check on neighbors, family, and friends in the region, and hope that somehow or some way this is not as bad as it looks. I fear that is getting harder and harder to occur.

In terms of intensity, we may see Milton make a run back to a category 5 today. The next 18 to 24 hours will probably see some fluctuations in intensity, as is typically the case in hurricanes of this intensity. We’ll probably see the intensity wane some tomorrow, but because the storm will compensate by growing in size, it will be very, very, very bad. Milton should arrive on the Florida coast as a borderline cat 3 or 4 storm in terms of wind, with a surge that will punch above the weight class, closer to cat 4 or 5. Milton is almost certainly not going to “weaken” enough before landfall to matter in terms of impacts.

A high risk (level 4/4) is now posted for flooding rainfall in Florida tomorrow near and north of the I-4 corridor, including Tampa, Orlando, and Ocala. (NOAA WPC)

One thing that seems assured regardless of exact track? Rain. Flooding rainfall is likely near and north of the I-4 corridor tomorrow as Milton moves in. A high risk (level 4/4) has been posted for the area between Tampa and Daytona north to about Ocala. Moderate risks (which are also usually not good) surround this north to Jacksonville and Fernandina Beach and south between Fort Myers and Vero Beach. Total rainfall could be as much as 10 to 15 inches in the high risk area, enough to cause significant, damaging freshwater flooding.

For interior locations, I know this is a scary storm too. But while it will be damaging inland, the hope is that it’s manageable by sheltering in place. If you’re visiting, most hotels and resorts should be pros with this and able to keep you safe. If you live there, winds of 65 to 75 mph sustained and gusts in the 80s or 90s will be unpleasant but as long as you shelter in a sturdy home, you will be fine. Power loss will probably be the most significant problem there, with perhaps a few days without power. Just make sure you’re prepared for that. Run from the water, hide from the wind. East coast beachfront locations will deal with full fledged tropical storm conditions and some modest surge flooding as well.

As is always the case, isolated tornadoes are possible as Milton comes ashore tomorrow night.

Look for another update this evening after we take a look at the 5 PM ET NHC advisory.

Historic Hurricane Milton explodes in the Gulf, solidifying significant, dangerous impacts for Florida

Headlines

  • Milton exploded into a category 5 hurricane today, small but incredibly powerful.
  • Milton’s intensity is expected to fluctuate over the next couple days as it grows in size, but it will almost certainly hit Florida as a powerful hurricane with major surge.
  • It is now expected to bring a 10 to 15 foot surge to Tampa Bay, far worse than Helene and beyond anything observed there in modern times.
  • Significant storm surge south of Tampa Bay as well, including for Sarasota, Punta Gorda, Fort Myers, and perhaps Naples.
  • If told to evacuate, please heed the advice of local officials and if you know someone unable to evacuate or that is stubborn, please try every means of convincing them and/or assisting them to do so.
  • Hurricane conditions likely inland as well (Orlando, Ocala, etc.), but shelter-in-place is recommended, along with planning for possible extended power outages.
  • East coast surge will be worse than Helene but still generally minor to moderate. Heed the advice of local officials there.
  • 6 to 12 inches of rain across Florida north of I-4 expected with widespread river and flash flooding.
  • A 4 to 6 foot surge is expected on the north coast of the Yucatan near Merida and Progreso tonight as Milton passes.

We all know storms can intensify faster than forecast. We’ve seen enough examples in the last 6 or 7 years to count on two hands. But it’s never not shocking when you see it. When I wrote this morning’s post, Milton had just become a category 3 major hurricane with 120 mph winds. By the time everyone finished lunch, it was a 175 mph category 5 storm. Unhinged intensification is what happens when you combine a tropical system in a near-perfect environment over extremely warm and warmer than usual water.

Hurricane Milton’s evolution from cusp of a major hurricane at sunrise to category 5 monster on Monday. (College of DuPage)

I won’t bury the lede: If you’re asked to evacuate in Florida, please do. If you know of anyone unable to or that is unwilling to, try to reason with them or help them where possible. We are not here to tell you what to do, so much as provide information, but I want to be very clear that if I were ordered to evacuate from this storm, I would not think twice. Again, you needn’t go hundreds of miles away. You can hide from wind inland. You need to be away from the surge though. What you saw during Helene was more of an appetizer of what could occur with Milton, namely from the Tampa Bay area southward.

The 5 PM ET forecast for Milton brings it near Tampa Bay on Wednesday night. (NOAA NHC)

This evening, Milton is still a category 5 hurricane with 180 mph maximum sustained winds. There is some chance that Milton could strengthen further, but we’re kind of closing in on theoretical maximum intensity here, and usually category 5 hurricanes don’t stay at peak intensity for more than 12-18 hours or so.

Here’s the rub. Let’s say Milton undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). I won’t get into the weeds, but that’s essentially where a hurricane sort of internally pauses, takes a breath, and resets itself. When it does this, it usually comes back larger in size but a bit weaker in intensity. Right now, tropical storm force winds extend out only 80 miles from the center. Compare this to the over 300 miles Helene’s winds were from the center. Hurricane-force winds extend out 30 miles, and those 180 mph winds? They’re in an extremely small pocket in the eyewall. So let’s say Milton undergoes an ERC tonight. Tomorrow, it may be a high-end cat 4 or still a cat 5, but it will be larger in size. A larger storm can move more water. Let’s say it happens again. Milton maybe becomes a cat 3 or lower-end cat 4, but now it’s doubled in size from today. That means that while the winds won’t be as extreme, they’ll cover a wider area. And the surge? Well, it will punch above its weight class and even if Milton is a 2 or a 3 at landfall, this massive storm surge we’ve been screaming about will still come to fruition, akin to more like a category 4 storm.

Updated storm surge forecasts indicate potential for 10 to 15 feet of surge in Tampa Bay and destructive surge south of there into Sarasota, Fort Myers, and Naples. (NOAA NHC)

So with that, storm surge forecasts have been fine tuned a bit this evening, and frankly they aren’t great. The surge is now expected to be as high as 10 to 15 feet in Tampa Bay. The only way Tampa avoids that now is if the storm track shifts south of the bay entrance. In that case, surge would drop off a good bit and the bay would empty, much as it did during Irma and Ian. Damaging but not catastrophic. As forecast right now, this would be an extremely damaging to potentially catastrophic scenario for Tampa Bay. Worse than Helene by a mile. Again, please heed local government advice and evacuate if told to.

Surge will also be damaging down the coast. Sarasota, Punta Gorda, Fort Myers, and perhaps Naples will all see significant storm surge. Those areas have a bit less uncertainty in the surge forecast compared to Tampa Bay, as the storm will almost certainly stay to the north, bringing significant surge ashore there.

Notably, the Yucatan should not be left out in all this. Though Milton’s strongest winds will pass well offshore, anywhere exposed to onshore winds may see a 4 to 6 foot increase in water level tonight as Milton passes, leading to coastal flooding near Merida and Progreso and just east of there.

Do not focus on specific values here. Strong winds will impact inland areas far from landfall with hurricane force winds possible for Ocala, Orlando, Daytona, and perhaps Jacksonville as well. (Weather Bell)

For inland areas, this will be a bad storm as well. Expect numerous widespread power outages. Hurricane warnings are posted inland to include Orlando and Ocala. Various watches and warnings are in effect elsewhere across Florida, including now on the east coast of Florida with a hurricane watch from St. Lucie County to the Georgia border/St. Mary’s River. Winds will likely gust to hurricane force with some sustained hurricane force winds possible too. For those of you on the east coast, note the surge map above as well. Milton will cause higher surge than Helene did on the east coast. Hurricane force winds are possible on the east coast too. Unless you’re told to evacuate, sheltering in place is the best advice for folks in inland areas and between the First Coast and Space Coast.

Rainfall of 6 to 12 inches will be possible along and north of where Milton tracks. Flash flooding and riverine flooding is possible, if not likely in these areas.

Heavy rainfall will impact much of the Florida Peninsula over the next few days. (NOAA WPC)

Some keen eyed observers noted the yellow X on the NHC map as well. That is separate from Milton and does not matter, as it is moving out to sea. The only tropical concern anyone should have right now is Milton. And we will leave it there. Our next update will come tomorrow morning.