Philippe is finally lifting north after lashing the Leeward Islands earlier this week, and it may move toward Bermuda as a tropical storm by Friday or so.
Philippe is disheveled, but not dead
Tropical Storm Philippe has a rather ragged appearance this morning, and it continues to struggle with wind shear. After proving to be a rainmaker for islands such as Barbuda and Dominica, as well as the Virgin Islands, the storm should finally find a passage north as a high pressure system gets out of its way. It has open water for a couple of days before it reaches the vicinity of Bermuda. So what will happen to the storm’s organization over the next two days?
A fairly disorganized Philippe on Wednesday morning. (NOAA)
There is a ton of uncertainty, as Philippe could use this brief window of opportunity to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane, or it could essentially be wiped out. Given its initial disheveled state, it’s difficult to parse whether the storm will, in fact, get its act together. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center splits the difference, calling for a strong tropical storm with 60 mph tropical storm winds as Philippe nears Bermuda. This seems like a reasonable best guess.
After interacting with Bermuda, Philippe should begin transitioning into an extratropical cyclone as it heads toward the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England. The primary threat there will be some additional heavy rainfall this weekend before the system dies out completely over Canada. Areas including Maine and Nova Scotia should continue to track the storm’s progress for a few more days until we can say au revoir to Philippe.
Five-day forecast track for Philippe. (National Hurricane Center)
Beyond Philippe: Some Pacific mischief?
After Philippe’s exit, the Atlantic looks quiet for a little while. The one feature we probably need to watch is a disturbance in the Pacific Ocean south of Guatemala that is likely to become a tropical storm over the next five days or so. Much of our model guidance indicates this will move across Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico next week.
Area of interest in the Pacific Ocean. (NOAA)
This could bring some heavy rainfall to coastal areas of Mexico, as well as the Gulf coasts of Texas and Louisiana later next week. But we’re at the point where there is just the threat of this happening, rather than any certainty. We’ll continue to watch it for you.
Overall things don’t look too concerning for late September, as Tropical Storm Philippe continues to be a fading force, and Invest 91L appears most likely to track north of the Caribbean Sea and its islands.
Happening Now: Some pesky storms
Let’s begin with Tropical Storm Philippe. Frankly, it does not look like much of a tropical system this morning, as the storm is battling against both the influx of some drier air as well as wind shear. This is kryptonite for a tropical storm, and the most likely outcome is that Philippe will dissipate over the next day or two. By this weekend a remnant low should approach Puerto Rico, bringing some elevated rain chances. But I am not seeing anything in this forecast that particularly concerns me.
Au revoir, Philippe? (National Hurricane Center)
Just behind Philippe in the Atlantic lies Invest 91L, which should become the better organized system over the next couple of days. It probably will become Tropical Storm Rina fairly soon as it tracks across the Atlantic Ocean toward the Caribbean Sea. Fortunately, the preponderance of our modeling suggests that this tropical system will mostly likely turn north before reaching the northern Leeward Islands. The continued evolution of 91L will be worth watching, but again it is not something which provides us too much concern at this time.
The medium range (days 6 to 10): Bahamas high jinks
We’re getting to the point of the forecast that is more speculative. However, after the remnants of Philippe move into Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, there may be an opportunity for some sort of low pressure system to congeal in or near the Bahamas about one week from today.
Area where there is some (slight) potential for development next week. (Weather Bell)
There is a definite signal in some of the global models ensembles for this scenario, and the ocean waters are plenty warm in this area. But the signal is not particularly strong, so I would not put too much stock in it. As we get to the end of September, this is the kind of thing we sometimes see in the tropics, with systems spinning up closer to land. If such a system were to develop it probably would get drawn north, perhaps toward Florida or the Eastern United States. But that is super speculative at this point.
Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Some noise, but not a whole lot
When we look even further into the future, well into the first week of October, there’s just not a whole lot out there. We’ll continue to watch the area near the Bahamas mentioned above, as well as the southeastern Gulf of Mexico for potential development. But again this is all pretty vague, and we can’t point to any specific threat. In my book, that’s a good thing.
Two systems are worth watching late this week or weekend, a deep Atlantic Cabo Verde wave and a subtropical system off the coast of the Southeastern United States.
Happening now
There’s not much beyond the slowly fading Hurricane Nigel, which is making a turn to the northeast and will race out to sea harmlessly. It should become a tropical storm in a day or two, and then transition to a post-tropical cyclone as it encounters much colder waters over the Northern Atlantic Ocean. Nigel was the kind of storm we can all live with, a powerful beast that remained at sea and never threatened any landmasses. Would that they all were that way.
The medium-range: Two things to watch
Let’s start with the system closer to the United States, an area of low pressure off the coast of Florida in the Atlantic Ocean. This system may develop into a subtropical storm by around Friday, at which point it is likely to get pulled north toward the Carolinas and Virginia. This will bring a surge of moisture into the region, some high surf, and wind gusts perhaps in excess of 40 mph along coastal areas of North Carolina and Virginia.
NOAA rainfall forecast for now through early next week. (Pivotal Weather)
Probably the biggest threat this weekend to the Southeastern United States coast will come from heavy rainfall, most likely during a period from Friday through Saturday night, with some locations possibly seeing 4 to 6 inches. Tropical rainfall like this can come in bunches, so there will very likely be some localized flooding concerns regardless of whether this system develops or not. By Sunday, whatever this becomes should be pulling hard, away from the eastern coast of the United States.
African wave
As for the African wave, it only recently moved off the continent into the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Over the next few days it should find conditions well suited to further development, and it’s likely to become a tropical depression or possibly even a tropical storm by this weekend. After that? Well, that’s the big question.
The system should move more or less westward through the early part of next week. It seems fairly likely that the storm will get close to the Lesser Antilles, and perhaps Puerto Rico, about seven or eight days from now. At some point it will find a weakness in the high pressure ridge to its north, and lift away from the islands into the open Atlantic Ocean. But since this turn is not likely to occur for at least a week, and perhaps longer, our confidence in the details is understandably low.
This wave may, or may not, threaten the Caribbean Islands next week. (National Hurricane Center)
The bottom line is that this system is worth watching, particularly for places like Antigua and Barbuda, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. This storm could miss these islands, certainly, but we’re also looking at the possibility of a significant hurricane coming calling. We’ll track it on a daily basis for you right here.
Fantasyland (day 10 and beyond)
There’s not much to see here, especially as concerns tropical weather close to land. That’s just fine with me.
Hurricane Lee is slowly starting to weaken, but remains a large and powerful hurricane as it turns northward on Wednesday morning and it will eventually bring significant impacts to parts of eastern New England and Atlantic Canada this weekend.
Current status of Lee
As of 8 am ET on Wednesday morning, Lee has sustained winds of 115 mph and is moving to the northwest at 6 mph. In terms of timing, it will bring impacts to Bermuda starting late tonight through Friday, and then into New England and Atlantic Canada by later on Friday and Saturday. By that time Lee will be weakening, but should still pack a punch given its large size.
Lee track forecast
Our confidence in where Lee will go over the next couple of days is high. After turning today it should move more or less north, passing to the west of Bermuda. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the island due to the threat of heavy rainfall and strong waves. However, Bermuda thankfully should be spared the worst effects of Lee along this track.
Super-ensemble forecast for Hurricane Lee, with annotation. (Tomer Burg)
After days of uncertainty, we should finally start to get some clarity today on Lee’s track at the end of this week, and its implications for residents of New England and Atlantic Canada. At this point I’m leaning toward a northward track until Friday, at which point the storm should make a dogleg to the left. Our main forecast question, in regard to track, is how significant will this westward bend be? It depends on the strength of a trough of low pressure over the Pennsylvania and New York region.
Our best hurricane and global models indicate that this turn will bring the center of Lee fairly close to the Cape Cod region of Massachusetts early on Saturday morning, although the storm is still expected to remain largely offshore. The center would then move into coastal Maine by Saturday night or Sunday morning. The center would subsequently move through Atlantic Canada and make its exit to the northeast. Again, we should get a better handle on the details of this dogleg over the next 24 hours, and we’ll have an update for you late this afternoon.
Lee intensity forecast and impacts
Lee now faces a number of factors that should lead to a gradual diminishment in strength, including increasing wind shear and a track that will bring it over cooler seas. However, this process should be slow, and it is likely that Lee will approach Cape Cod and Maine this weekend as a broad, Category 1 hurricane. As it likely will be starting to transition into an extratropical storm, you can probably expect the storm to behave more or less like a very large nor’easter.
Forecast for maximum wind gusts from Hurricane Lee this weekend. (Weather Bell)
After bringing tropical storm impacts to Bermuda, Lee could start to bring Tropical Storm-force winds to the Cape Cod area of Massachusetts by Friday night, and into Maine and Nova Scotia by Saturday morning. How strong will these winds be? That will depend ultimately on the storm’s track and how much its intensity wanes, but the following wind gust forecast from the European model offers a decent representation of risk. Note that wind gusts are short bursts of wind, and that sustained winds will be lower.
Rainfall totals are likely even less predictable than winds, because they’re not only dependent on track but also more localized conditions that will determine where thunderstorms train. The heaviest totals are likely accumulate in Maine and Nova Scotia, where some areas may see 3 to 6 inches of rainfall in a fairly short period from Lee.
Hurricane Lee rainfall totals. (Weather Bell)
There will, of course, be myriad other effects from this storm. One of them is storm surge. We have seen in the past the larger hurricanes tend to produce a more significant surge of water, and it appears as though Lee could bring a pretty significant coastal surge event into Maine and parts of Canada. The details of this will be worked out in the next day or two as we fine-tune the track forecast. Accordingly, Beach erosion, rough surf, and rip currents are a lock for the East Coast and Atlantic Canada. Not a good beach weekend, to be sure. Areas that see stronger winds and rainfall will likely see downed trees, which could in turn knock down power lines. So be prepared for some disruptions of that kind, as well.
Hurricane Margot and the rest of the gang
Margot is a hurricane at sea. Fortunately there is nothing to see. After spinning and going whee. In a few days, it should cease to be.
Beyond Margot there is another system that is very likely to develop into hurricane over the next several days. This system is probably not a concern for the continental United States or Caribbean islands, but could definitely be something for Bermuda to watch. If so, impacts would occur about a week from now, or maybe a bit longer. But we have a lot of questions to answer before getting into a specific forecast for a storm that would be called Nigel, should it form.
Nigel-to-be will split the uprights between Lee and Margot, most likely. (National Hurricane Center)
Look for our next update on Lee late this afternoon.
