In brief: A quick update late Wednesday morning on Tropical Storm Isaias, which has an improving satellite appearance and could undergo rapid intensification during the next two days before landfall along the northern Gulf coast.
Isaias status
As of 11 am ET on Wednesday, Tropical Storm Isaias has 45 mph sustained winds, and is moving relatively slowly to the east-northeast at 8 mph. It is clear from the storm’s appearance on satellite that Isaias is getting better organized. We should expect significant intensification.
Put another way, in the modern era (post-World War II) the Atlantic basin has never gotten this deep into an Atlantic hurricane season without an actual hurricane forming. But we are likely to break the streak in the next 12 to 24 hours.
Track forecast for TS Isaias at 11 am ET on Wednesday. (National Hurricane Center)
Current thinking on track
There continues to be a divergence in the physics-based models (i.e. Euro, GFS) and the AI-based model guidance. In terms of a landfall along the northern Gulf coast, the former models are closer to southwestern Louisiana or Mississippi, and the latter are more focused on areas such as Mobile, Alabama or Destin, Florida.
Following a reformation of Isaias’ center, I expect the various suites of models to come into better alignment today, which should allow us to increase our confidence in the track, and where the final landfall location will occur on Friday afternoon, evening, or early Saturday morning. Matt will have a more comprehensive post later today that I suspect will better be able pinpoint Isaias’ track over the next 48 hours.
Most Google AI models keep Isaias in the range of a Category 1 to Category 3 hurricane. (Google Weather Lab)
What about intensity?
We are definitely concerned about the potential for rapid intensification with Isaias. Although it is early October, seas over the central Gulf are a few degrees Fahrenheit above normal for this time of year, and plenty warm to support strengthening. Isaias will also not encounter much dry air along the forecast track, and should enjoy a relatively low shear environment until later on Friday when it nears the coast.
So what does that mean? The National Hurricane Center presently forecasts that Isaias will reach a maximum of 110 mph winds on Friday morning before weakening slightly ahead of landfall. This makes Isaias a strong Category 2 hurricane, but it could easily be a category stronger or weaker at landfall. This will bring the potential for significant wind damage, and to the right of Isaias’s center, storm surge along the northern Gulf coast.
Areas most at risk for flash flooding from inland rains due to Isaias. (NCEP/NWS)
Coastal residents and businesses from Gulfport, Miss., to Apalachicola, Florida, should be paying close attention to Isaias. And inland residents, particularly in Alabama, should keep taps on the storm for winds and heavy rains on Friday and Saturday.
In brief: Well, here we are. The start of the six-month Atlantic hurricane season. We are cross-posting Eric’s post from Space City Weather (with some minor broad edits for this audience from Matt) yesterday that attempts to give you the information you need about what to expect and how to prepare, without raising your anxiety too much. A little preparation now will go a long way if the worst happens.
Hurricane season forecast
We do not put a whole lot of stock in seasonal hurricane forecasting. It can provide a general sense of what is likely to happen, but there is no precision in the details that matter. For example, what we really want to know is whether there will be a lot of active storms in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, or off the East Coast, not the central Atlantic Ocean. And since we remain a couple of months away from the ‘peak’ of hurricane season we just cannot know these details.
Seasonal forecasts for the Atlantic basin in 2026. Click to enlarge. (Barcelona Supercomputing Center and Colorado State University)
With that said, the general consensus from hurricane season forecasts is that we should see activity levels below normal this year across the Atlantic basin. For example, the average number of named storms is about 14 per season, and this year the most likely range of named storms is between 8 and 14, according to NOAA. The average number of hurricanes is 7, and the expected range is 3 to 6. So this is good news, because fewer storms overall mean fewer “shots on goal” when it comes to striking the coast.
The reason for all of this is that El Niño is has developed, and it will likely continue to strengthen during the key August and September months. This should help to suppress Atlantic storm activity by increasing wind shear. There are other reasons as well, but the takeaway message here is that instead of seeing a blockbuster season, we are likely to see a quieter one. But a quieter season for the entire Atlantic does not mean a quiet season for Texas or Long Island or Florida if one or two storms threaten the coast. So as ever, we will remain vigilant here at The Eyewall.
What you should do to prepare
The most important piece of advice we can give you is to have a plan for what to do if a storm threatens. If you have a plan, then you’ll sleep better and night, and be prepared to put it into action. And this is important, because when a hurricane legitimately does threaten the Houston region, people lose their minds. You don’t want to lose your mind. We have a page on The Eyewall’s website that links to dozens of local preparedness pages on the coast. Use these pages to help build your kit, develop your plan, and determine your evacuation protocols.
And that is critical. The key question you need to decide is under what circumstances you will evacuate. An important factor in all of this is how close you live to the coast. For example, in Houston, the Houston-Galveston Area Council has some excellent resources to help you prepare at this website. Among them is a “zip-zone” map that helps homeowners identify their vulnerability to different levels of storm surge. This is also how evacuations will be called, by zip codes.
Evacuation zones by area: purple (coastal), yellow (A), green (B), and orange (C). (HGAC)
Most other local jurisdictions (many linked above) also have maps such as this. There are other determinants for whether one should evacuate. You run from the water and hide from the wind. So, wind alone is not a consideration for most people. But those winds can frequently lead to extended power outages. If you have someone in your home with a medical condition that requires electricity for support, then you definitely will still want to consider evacuation if a hurricane threatens.
For those planning to stay during most storms, here is an example of a good disaster kit checklist. A lot of this is common sense: what supplies would you need to remain in your home for several days, without power, and without access to outside resources? Also please don’t forget about pets, whether you’re staying or evacuating. It’s also good idea to check on neighbors. One of the only silver linings of a hurricane, I have found, is that it tends to bring neighbors and neighborhoods together.
The climatology of hurricane season, showing the peak from mid-August through mid-October. (NOAA NHC)
A final word. Hurricane season is a long slog, not a sprint. Because of the nature of storms, you don’t need to be at Defcon 1 from June 1 through November 30. Yes, stronger storms can occur sometimes in July, but the main time to watch is August through October. It’s very easy (and understandable!) to get worked up throughout the course of the season, but you need to pace yourself as you would a marathon.
We do this because we love weather and we love ensuring people have good quality information. Seriously, over the last decade Space City Weather has become an important part of the Houston community’s fabric, and we take our responsibilities seriously. The Eyewall has been building a unique audience of its own. We’re here for the long haul and appreciate that our readers are so faithful to the sites.
Eric speaks at Space City Weather’s Fall Day in 2025.
And much we owe to you, the reader. To the extent we have grown, it has been through word of mouth. We have never advertised the sites. Rather, our growth has been entirely by word of mouth, with readers telling others about us, or sharing our activity on social media. We are grateful for that. Thank you!
Social media
As for social media, we do try to reach readers where they are. Here are a list of the places you can find us, and where you can find links to every update we do:
One final thing to note this year: We are trying to do more social media videos. If you follow us on IG or TikTok, you may have periodically seen our forecast videos. We try to do one or two a week at Space City Weather now more regularly to keep people informed. We don’t want to overwhelm you with content, but when something needs to be said, we’ll say it. So be sure and check us out there if you’re a video-first type person.
Thanks for reading, and we’ll have another update this week!
In brief: Hurricane Melissa has weakened to become a Category 2 hurricane after emerging off of Cuba on Wednesday morning. We take a first look at Jamaican impacts from the storm, and the threats facing the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada.
Status of Melissa
As of 11 am ET on Wednesday, Hurricane Melissa remains a Category 2 hurricane, now with 100 mph sustained winds. Melissa has begun to accelerate to the northeast in response to an upper level low pressure system. It is now moving at 14 mph, and will likely continue to speed up. Melissa may hold this intensity for another day or so before weakening further.
Satellite image of Melissa as it emerged off of Cuba on Wednesday morning. (NOAA)
Impacts in Jamaica
Recovery operations are beginning in Jamaica, where Melissa hit hard on Tuesday. It is tied with the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as the most powerful hurricane to strike a landmass in the Atlantic Basin, which includes the United States, Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean islands. One small bit of good news is that the storm’s core was fairly compact, so the extent of Melissa’s strongest winds was not massive. As a result the most populous part of Jamaica, including Kingston, was comparatively spared.
The same cannot be said for the western half of the island nation. There were no immediate reports of deaths, but loss and damage assessments were only beginning on Wednesday morning. Dana Morris Dixon, Jamaica’s information minister, said power was knocked out to 70 percent of the country. “I know so many people have said they cannot reach their families in western Jamaica. That’s because of damage to the telecoms infrastructure,” Morris Dixon adding that it “looks really, really difficult” in many parts of the island and the images coming in are “devastating.”
Melissa is just now emerging from the eastern half of Cuba, and it is too early to determine impacts there.
Melissa from here on out
Melissa remains a powerful hurricane and will cross the Bahamas today. The storm’s path will miss the larger islands, passing to the southeast of Nassau. However, several of the smaller Bahamaian islands will sustain a direct strike from Melissa as it maintains Category 2 strength. Damaging winds and storm surge are the biggest threat.
Close-up of National Hurricane Center track for Melissa, released at 11 am ET on Wednesday. (NOAA)
As the storm accelerates to the northeast it will near, but likely just miss Bermuda on Thursday night. It likely will be still be a Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane at that time. Some of our better track forecasts have been edging a little westward in this time frame, and if this trend continues it would keep the center of Melissa offshore, sparing Bermuda from worst-case impacts.
A smattering of model solutions for Melissa’s location at 2 am ET on Saturday, Nov. 1. (Google Weather Lab)
By later on Friday or early Saturday, a weakening Melissa will likely impact Newfoundland, Canada. By this time it may have begun a transition to an extra-tropical storm, but it will still pack a wallop in terms of waves and winds.
Anything coming after?
The tropics will be quiet in Melissa’s wake. The only watch point I have for you this morning is the southern Caribbean Sea, where something may eventually spin out of the Central American gyre, a broad area of low pressure that is typically present through November. We cannot point to any specific threats, but we’ll keep an eye on it for you.
In brief: Today’s update looks at the time remaining in the Atlantic season, which is dwindling. We also dig into a tropical system approaching the Caribbean Sea that will need to be watched closely in the coming days.
The finish line is in sight
Officially, the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 every year. Storms can form outside of these arbitrary dates, of course, and they often do. But the vast majority of tropical activity, and especially hurricanes, occur during these six months. Looking at the calendar this morning, we have a little more than 43 days left until November 1. So the finish line is in sight, and overall activity is definitely trending downward as the Atlantic basin cools. But we’re not there yet, so let’s jump in.
Southern blob
Let’s start with the southernmost blob on the National Hurricane Center’s forecast map, because that is of far more interest to pretty much all concerned. The forecasters at the hurricane center give this tropical wave a 30 percent chance of becoming a depression or tropical storm over the course of the next week as it moves westward, into the Caribbean Sea.
What we can say for sure is that the tropical system will bring a round of stormy activity, including heavy rainfall, to the Windward Islands this weekend. However we don’t expect tropical storm-force sustained winds or a significant storm surge. The question then becomes, what next? We of course don’t have any absolute answers for you. However, there is general agreement among most of our models that a low pressure system will be in the Central Caribbean Sea by around next Wednesday.
A mix of AI and global model ensembles for tropical low locations at 2 pm ET on Wednesday. (WeatherLab)
After this, well, we can’t really say much intelligent. There is potentially a corridor that could open to allow the tropical system to lift north during the middle of next week, toward Hispaniola or Puerto Rico. Alternatively, the system may just slowly meander westward in the Caribbean Sea (perhaps reaching Central America, and perhaps not) for a few days before finally moving north or northwest. I think the biggest point of concern I have is that, although we have reached mid-October, the Caribbean Sea remains plenty warm to support the development of a hurricane if other conditions are favorable. So we are going to keep a close eye on this one in the coming days.
Some of the warmest water in the Atlantic basin, well above 85 degrees F, remains in the Caribbean Sea. (NOAA)
Northern blob
This is non-tropical low pressure system that has a very slight chance of becoming an extra-tropical system during the next couple of days before reaching much colder water in the Northern Atlantic. Really, I think some forecaster at the hurricane center must have fancied the color yellow, and wanted to add a little more to the map, because this system is likely to be inconsequential.
