Matt Lanza

Taking a look at Texas rains this week, while taking a peek at Thanksgiving travel weather

In brief: Stormy weather will bring some risk of flooding to Texas and perhaps Oklahoma over the next 5 days, followed by another storm system and cooler weather in the Eastern U.S. next week, just in time for Thanksgiving. Wednesday’s travel weather doesn’t look horrendous right now, but there are a couple things to watch. Plus, some links on newsier bits going on.

It’s Wednesday, November 19th, and I just wanted to check in with our audience! I am working on a more robust piece in the background on the Colorado River, a topic that is critically important beyond just the Southwest. This has ramifications nationally. A lot is going on there right now, and I’m trying to throw together a simple explainer piece for you all to understand it, as well as dump a list of books and blogs that I’ve found useful (or need to read more about) regarding this issue. Look for that soon.

In the meantime, it’s been quiet in the Eastern U.S., while busy in the West with flash flooding in California, and flood watches currently posted in Arizona.

Estimated rainfall totals for the 2 weeks ending on the morning of November 19th, showing as much as 10 to 15 inches or more of rainfall in parts of California. (NOAA)

Parts of SoCal have been drenched with the mountains north of LA seeing anywhere from 5 to 15 inches of water over the last couple weeks. California needs the water, of course, but these storms have been fairly warm, so snowpack is not a real serious consideration yet, but in general, the highest peaks are now running above average in California, Arizona, and southern Utah.

In the East, it’s warm weather that we’re talking about. Numerous record highs will be threatened today and tomorrow across the Southeast and parts of Texas. While the pace of record warmth should ease up this weekend, generally above normal temperatures look to continue into the first part of Thanksgiving week before a cooldown in time for the holiday.

Rain totals forecast over the next 5 days look pretty substantial in interior Texas and southeast Oklahoma. (Pivotal Weather)

However, a series of disturbances in the Southern Plains will create a bit of a flooding threat, particularly in Texas. Rain totals of 2-5 inches are possible, if not likely from parts of the Rio Grande Valley through Hill Country into the DFW Metro. At this time, the risk of excessive, severe flash flooding looks low. But every so often, you can get a random band of storms in a situation like this capable of dumping 6 to 10 inches of rain on someone. Hence, flood watches are posted for Hill Country.

Flood Watches from parts of the Rio Grande into Austin, San Antonio, and Hill Country. (Pivotal Weather)

A second storm system will cross the state this weekend and next week bringing additional rain Monday and Tuesday before quieter weather.

Thanksgiving weather

It’s a bit early to get too specific regarding Thanksgiving, but we can begin to make some assumptions. First, for the big travel day on Wednesday, it looks relatively quiet in Texas and the Southwest. An incoming storm system may be possible in the Northwest. We can look at probabilities of 0.01″ of liquid as a rough barometer for where weather will occur. It seems plausible that thunderstorms could impact travel through Atlanta or Florida. Winds could impact flights in Chicago and Minneapolis. And a storm system could bring some precipitation to the Northeast and/or Midwest, depending on exact timing. It does not appear that holiday travel looks severely disrupted at this time, but you may still want to watch the forecast.

Probability of 0.01″ or more of rainfall next Wednesday. (Pivotal Weather)

The environment could become favorable for some lake effect snow later Wednesday or Thursday in the Great Lakes. Temperature anomalies for Thanksgiving Day don’t look overly impressive, but some colder air will give it the autumn chill that often defines late November from the Plains and Texas into the Midwest and parts of the East. The West looks mild.

Thanksgiving Day temperature anomalies show colder than normal over much of the Eastern U.S. (Pivotal Weather)

For those of you hearing chatter about stratospheric warming and the polar vortex breaking down and other such things, this is not that. Impacts from that stratospheric warming event (if they are felt at all) would occur more into December. It’s important to keep in mind that not all stratospheric warming events are equal. Some lead to cold. Others have minimal impact. This is a branch of the science we’re gradually learning more about but are not quite experts in just yet.

Newsy bits

FEMA: The head of FEMA stepped down this week. David Richardson, who has headed the agency for the last 6 months or so was criticized for not being reachable for a full 24 hours after the July 4th floods in Texas, a pretty inexcusable moment to go MIA. Richardson, with no EM experience, admitted he thought his job was to shut down the agency, when in reality (as we’ve seen many times when folks get put in these positions), he sees the need for the agency. FEMA has issues and needs reform at scale. I trust folks like Colleen Hagerty and Samantha Montano on covering these issues. But the current administration’s desire to eliminate it entirely and push everything onto states indicates a fundamental misunderstanding of disaster response and an agency that is already greatly misunderstood by politicians and the public alike. FEMA serves a vital function in a nation that is frequently impacted by disasters.

FEMA II: Of course, who is next is the question. There is some chatter about the administration’s desire to get the head of the Texas Division of Emergency Management, Nim Kidd to be the head of FEMA. Kidd has said he won’t leave Texas. So could the administration bring FEMA to him? I will say that when you have a strong candidate for a position, it is wise to make concessions, however, moving the entire agency for one individual seems a bit much. Anyway, grab the popcorn over the next few weeks.

Western Alaska: The village of Quinhagak in Alaska lost about 60 feet of shoreline from the remnants of Typhoon Halong in October. Concerns about environmental risk were being investigated, but it also disrupted the Nunalleq archaeological site, a significant pre-contact Yup’ik site there, scattering artifacts across the beach. Efforts were undertaken to save as much of it as possible. (Alaska Public Media) Here is a mid-November update on the rebuilding efforts underway. (Alaska Public Media) How local public media was a lifeline for rural, isolated communities in Alaska during Halong. And how it’s now being dismantled due to Trump Administration budget cuts. (Alaska Public Media)

Iceland: Mosquitoes have been found in the wild Iceland for the first time in recorded history. Whether it is related to climate change or just a hitchhiker that arrived as Icelandic tourism continues to thrive, no one knows. But if a population does become established there, it obviously would not be good. Bugs like mosquitoes can survive cold though, so we’ll see if this is a blip or a trend. (New York Times)

Grand Junction, Colorado: The Aedes aegypti mosquito is establishing itself in parts of the West where it was never deemed possible previously. The culprit? Climate change. As nighttimes warm, the mosquitos have fewer opportunities to be wiped out due to harsh cold that periodically has arrived in the interior West. Grand Junction saw the fewest nights below freezing on record last winter, and it’s allowing these creatures an opportunity to survive in new places. (Inside Climate News)

Louisiana: Could floating homes help solve issues of housing and flooding risk in places like New Orleans? The idea that a home could float as water rises instead of the structure flooding is an intriguing one. Can it be done sustainably and cost-effectively? The concept has worked in some places with less engineered structures, so the question becomes whether existing, bulkier homes could be retrofitted in a way. (The Current, Lafayette, LA)

Panama Canal: Droughts, such as the one experienced in 2023 could become more frequent in the future with climate change, new research shows. At a previous job, I dealt with questions about this drought involving Gatun Lake, the primary source of water to help fill the locks in the canal (as well as a major drinking water source). While the lake often fluctuates due to El Niño and La Niña precipitation patterns in the Pacific, more frequent droughts or at least more frequent extremes is a common concern across the globe as the planet warms. (AGU)

A first look at hurricane season’s historical perspective, plus Snowvember!

In brief: Today’s post takes an early assessment of how this hurricane season will stand historically. We also have a look at this week’s weather, with mostly localized impacts including snow in West Virginia, record cold in the Southeast, and more Western moisture. Our “newsy bits” section discusses the government’s recent withdrawal from disaster relief and mitigation funding.

Good morning. Obviously the frequency of Eyewall posts will slow now that hurricane season seems to be winding down. But please let me know in the comments if there are any topics or things you want us to cover. We’ll continue to track significant weather and post on it, saving more frequent posts for more serious weather.

Hurricane season update

In the meantime, it’s November 10th. Tomorrow is Veterans Day, so a heartfelt thank you to those who have served or are still serving. But that also means that are 20 days left in hurricane season. The forecast looks quiet for the next 1 to 2 weeks, so for all intents and purposes. the season is over.

(Bone Apple Tee)

So, where does this season seem to stack up?

Three storms, our three category 5 storms, accounted for over 70 percent of the season’s accumulated cyclone energy (or ACE), which measures essentially how intense a season was. The accumulated ACE this season of 132.6 (or 132.9 depending on your source data) puts 2025 firmly in the middle of the “above normal” level.

Melissa launched us above normal this season, and the three category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) are clearly evident on this chart. (Colorado State)

Melissa’s 34.7 units of ACE were the highest since 2023’s Hurricane Lee (36.7). Overall, this season will obviously be remembered for Melissa more than any other storm. But on the whole, it will fall into the lower tier of active seasons.

The preliminary tracks and intensities of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. (NOAA/NHC)

Keep in mind that all data is still preliminary. A rigorous post-season analysis will take place that should take a better look at all the data accumulated over the season to make any tweaks.

One thing is for sure (and we’ll have more on this coming up eventually), this season marked a monumental shift in how we utilize weather model data, with AI models, particularly Google’s Deep Mind Ensemble doing some incredible work in the Atlantic Basin. Years of research and investment in our understanding of hurricanes is paying off.

Upcoming week weather of note

Snowvember! Snow totals in parts of southeast Wisconsin, Illinois, and northwest Indiana/southwest Michigan were impressive over the last 24 hours.

Snow totals downwind of Lake Michigan offered up some impressive accumulation. (NOAA/NWS)

Our max total in this region was 14 inches near Walkerton, Indiana. 13 inches were reported in Heston and Pleasant Prairie, Wisconsin. Additional snow reports may be missing from this map as well.

In the Lake Superior snow belt, 18 inches fell just to the northwest of Marquette, Michigan and the Traverse City area also saw 6 to 10 inches of snow.

Some lake snow will continue today but the heaviest snow today will focus on West Virginia.

Snow will linger into the evening and overnight in parts of eastern West Virginia. (NWS Charleston)

Total snowfall may reach as much as a foot between Elkins and Beckley.

For the most part, this week’s weather will feature a slow warming trend nationally, We still have one more cold morning to come, and this one may set numerous record lows in the Southeast.

Forecast and near-forecast record lows in the Southeast on Tuesday morning. (NOAA WPC)

The West will be the focus of action this week with 1 to 3 inches of liquid equivalent and higher amounts in some higher elevations. Initial snow levels in the Sierra will be high, 8,500′, dropping to about 5,000 to 6,000 feet on Thursday evening and Friday. Snow levels may drop below 4,000 feet in the mountain passes of the Northwest as well.

Forecast precipitation this week. (Pivotal Weather)

This will be a generally moderate atmospheric river event for the West, with AR levels generally no higher than level 3. The focus should be on Oregon and northern California. Welcome rains will also occur down to SoCal as well. Overall, the ideal sort of Western storm pattern with a good bit of moisture but not too much of it.

European model forecast of maximum atmospheric river levels in the West over the next 7 days. (Center For Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E))

The Storm Prediction Center outlook is dormant this week for any severe weather nationally, so we’re in good shape overall right now.

Newsy bits

Today, we focus on the federal government’s sudden aversity to disaster aid.

Western Maryland: In a story that is playing out in various parts of the country, it seems evident that the federal government is pushing ahead with the abdication of their role in some disaster relief. A major flood in western Maryland that likely would have been a declared disaster in most previous administrations (including Trump v. 1.0) was denied that status this year, leaving vulnerable Appalachian communities in a lurch. (Baltimore Banner, Maryland Matters)

Alaska: An EPA grant of $20 million to help the village of Kipnuk, AK reduce erosion from storms was canceled in May as the Trump Administration finalized its review process of funding. While the work related to the grant would not have helped in October’s massive Alaska storm, it underscores the importance of these types of grants. The administration responded to requests for information on this matter derisively as they have done on several occasions. (Alaska Public Media)

North Carolina: The State of North Carolina is suing FEMA and Homeland Security because of $17.5 million in canceled grants. You will notice a pattern with these three stories here, and you don’t need me to tell you what it is. But suffice to say, it’s getting a little ridiculous. (Blue Ridge Public Radio)

California: It’s becoming realistic to think that if a devastating earthquake or another disaster impacts a place like California or Washington that disaster aid will be withheld for political reasons or come with prohibitive strings attached. Or so that’s the message emergency management professionals are trying to convey to people in California. (LAist)

First Arctic air of winter invades the East, with a stormy California on the horizon

In brief: Today we talk about the first dose of Arctic air this cold season, in addition to the chance of lake effect snow. We’ve also got a look at California which may shift quite a bit stormier later next week. Plus a lot of news to catch up on and the latest on NOAA/NWS challenges.

Big warm up, big cooldown

Autumn is going to autumn heading into the weekend. A big warm up is in store for the eastern half of the country ahead of a potent Arctic cold front. This will deliver a taste of early winter to much of the Eastern and Southern U.S. Houston, Austin, and San Antonio may threaten a record high temperature on both Friday and Saturday.

Temperatures over the next 5 days are going to go a little haywire, as is the case in autumn. (Tropical Tidbits)

But a cold front plowing east on Saturday and Sunday will eradicate this warm weather and replace with the first real dose of Arctic air of the season. Morning lows on Monday and especially Tuesday will threaten records, mainly in the Southeast.

Forecast or near forecast record lows on Tuesday morning in the Southeast. (NOAA WPC)

We will see frost and freeze make it all the way down close to I-10 to the east of Houston. Lows in the teens and 20s will be likely to the north from Tennessee into the Midwest. Chicago should be in the mid-20s on Monday morning, Minneapolis near 20, and Detroit mid-20s.

In addition, the first legitimate lake effect snow of the season looks likely behind this system. A few inches of accumulation could add up near the lakeshore in Michigan, parts of Indiana, and perhaps New York or Ohio. Not a major event right now, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. It’s that time of year.

(NWS Gaylord, MI)

Temperatures will warm up again next week.

West Coast storminess later next week

It’s a bit early to get into specifics, but it does appear that a significant shift south in moisture is going to occur next week in the West. This should allow for significant rain to impact California, as well as significant Sierra snow.

Wednesday’s 8 to 14 day hazards outlook. (NOAA CPC)

Again, it’s too early to get into details, but ensemble modeling seems to support up to an inch or so of moisture in SoCal and 1 to 3 inches in NorCal. Operational guidance, including European AI modeling suggests there is higher side risk to these totals as well.

7-day precipitation anomaly from European ensemble for days 7 to 13 ending Nov 18. (Tropical Tidbits)

Bottom line: It looks like a substantial wet storm or series of storms may impact much of California by later next week.

Newsy bits

Help me close my tabs by checking out some news from this week.

Derechos: Cool news out of Oklahoma where researchers are embarking on a project to catalog derecho events (hundreds of miles of damaging thunderstorm winds, many in the higher end of 75 to 100 mph) back to the 1950s. The idea is to try and understand what the correct environment for derecho development may be, which would help improve forecast accuracy. (University of Oklahoma)

Roanoke, Virginia: It’s been 40 years since a terrible flood struck Roanoke in 1985, causing $200 million in damage and killing 10 people. Massive flood mitigation efforts ensued, and it’s been successful, though there is still much work to do. I strongly encourage you also read Kevin Myatt’s flood synopsis of that event and how Hurricane Juan did and did not cause it.

Chattanooga, Tennessee: In Chattanooga, the Tennessee Department of Transportation is assessing how their infrastructure performed during floods in August that damaged 309 homes or businesses. The rain that fell was a 400 to 500 year event which blew past the design thresholds. We read about this a lot. We are getting better data through NOAA’s Atlas 15 project, but even that may become somewhat outdated as atmospheric moisture is increasing, leading to more frequent heavy rainfall events. (WTVC)

Sullivan’s Island, South Carolina: In Sullivan’s Island, a location that is seeing more frequent coastal flooding, the town produced a 154 page mitigation plan. It included policy recommendations. Despite the fact that it addresses an obvious problem, some residents are skeptical. It boils down to property rights and taxes due to the cost of mitigation. One councilmember chastised the community for not speaking up during one of the 15 sessions the town had to question the experts behind the plan. Democracy is messy and requires participation. People need to involve themselves in these discussions. (Charleston Post and Courier)

Kipnuk, Alaska: In Kipnuk, one of the villages severely impacted by Typhoon Halong’s remnants in October, a $20 million grant was earmarked by the EPA to help protect its infrastructure from flooding. A few months before the storm, the EPA informed Kipnuk that the “objectives of the award are no longer consistent with EPA funding priorities,” and they canceled the grant. While it may not have helped during Halong, it’s a reminder of how much mitigation work needs to be done across the country and why grant programs like this are critical to villages like Kipnuk. (Alaska Public Media)

Milwaukee, Wisconsin: In August, southeast Wisconsin was battered by some extreme, historic flooding. Now, FEMA and the Trump Administration are denying flood mitigation funding for public infrastructure. As U.S. Rep. Gwen Moore points out, and as I heard former FEMA Director Deanne Criswell talk about yesterday here in Houston, state and local governments can’t do these things alone. The tactic since this administration took office has been to rip the band aid off without a viable alternative in place or giving anyone a chance to prepare for what happens next. “Oh well” is not a solution. (Wisconsin Examiner)

NOAA issues

Speaking of… I don’t want to overdo this section, but as has been the case for the last several months, we continue to have reasons to be concerned about NOAA in the current administration.

Volunteer work?

First, whether you blame Republicans or Democrats for the government shutdown that is currently gridlocking the country, it does not matter. In Washington it’s a chess match. To most average Americans, no one really cares who is responsible, they just want a solution. Alan Gerard’s “Balanced Weather” had a great post late last week on the heroic work that the Hurricane Hunters performed during Hurricane Melissa. Not only are these people not getting paid at the moment, they were flying into Melissa, an already hazardous mission, with extra volunteers and smaller than normal crews. They may have made some of their most dangerous flights in modern times doing this too. Let’s just repeat that: Volunteers. Doing arguably the most hazardous job in all of meteorology. Why is this? Because of the shutdown. And I am sure the fact that the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA is operating at half-capacity thanks to probationary firings earlier this year ordered by DOGE and the many retirements that were encouraged is contributing to this as well. This also comes after the administration’s proposed budget, a list of their priorities, would have scaled back hurricane hunter flights into storms.

We owe them a strong debt of gratitude for the work they do, and yes flying into a storm that is bearing down on Jamaica is part of their job responsibilities. Why? Because America has always been the leader in this space. It’s part of what has made American global science leadership great. I’m not sure relying on retired volunteers is a great way to ensure that continues, however. This administration’s handling of NOAA runs counter to the greatness mantra they regularly espouse. Anyway, read Alan’s post on this topic.

Another deadly New York City flood event last week, plus an update on Melissa’s damage and a look at this week

In brief: We have an update on Melissa’s damage and some other news stories that have emerged in the wake of the storm. We also take a quasi-deep dive into flooding that hit New York City on Thursday. It wasn’t necessarily unexpected, but its impact was probably worse than expected. Also, a look at the upcoming week and an atmospheric river event in the West.

Melissa’s latest

The death toll has surpassed 60 in the Caribbean, including 28 in Jamaica and 31 in Haiti from Melissa. Relief is slowly trickling in, but the logistics of getting to a place like Black River is exceedingly difficult at the moment. The tangential effects of a storm like this are starting to come to light as well, as the farming and fishing sector of Jamica, broadly, not just in the hardest hit areas will be greatly impacted in the months ahead. Other perspectives, such as from Canada where seasonal workers contribute a great deal to their agriculture sector have provided some additional context on how this has and will impact the country.

We’ll repost our list of links here that point to organizations directly helping affected areas.

United Way of Jamaica will donate directly to Jamaicans in the affected areas.

The American Friends of Jamaica is a fund that has been active for decades helping Jamaica.

Give Directly will provide cash relief directly to those impacted by the storm.

Samaritan’s Purse has set up a field hospital in Jamaica and is sending aid as quickly as possible.

The Center for Disaster Philanthropy which is focused on medium and long-term recovery. When the media and volunteers all leave, there will still be enormous amounts of work to do to recover from a storm of this magnitude. CDP works to help fill that gap.

New York City flooding

Lost in the headlines around Melissa and probably Halloween was a pretty terribly flooding event that hit New York City on Thursday.

Radar estimated rain totals on Thursday in the New York City metro area. (NOAA NSSL)

Two people died, one in Manhattan and one in Flatbush, Brooklyn after being trapped in flooded basements. This has some echoes from Hurricane Ida’s remnants in 2021, which killed over 12 in Queens, many in basements. Radar estimated rain totals above show only about 1 to 2 inches in most of the city, with some isolated pockets of 2 to 3 on the east side of Queens and in Nassau County and north of the city. That may not seem like much, but torrential rains passed through the area between about 2:30 and 4 PM, dumping anywhere from 1 to 1.5 inches in an hour.

A radar loop around New York City from Thursday. (RadarScope)

Those intense rates, coupled with New York City’s less than perfect drainage system led to very rapid onset flash flooding, exacerbated by about a month and change of below normal rainfall, which likely left lots of debris blocking drainage. The New York City area had been placed in a marginal risk (1/4) for flash flooding on Thursday.

Thursday’s excessive rainfall outlook issued just after midnight that morning. (NOAA WPC)

The morning forecast discussion from the New York City NWS office described the situation that day:

The heaviest falls late Thursday afternoon and early evening as the core of LLJ (low level jet) passes, and localized rates could briefly approach or exceed 1 in/hr. Based on the 00Z HREF, the most likely location for this for be in NJ, west of NYC. This presents the possibility of mainly nuisance flooding, mainly for urbanized and/or poor drainage areas. Otherwise, the threat for flash flooding is low and localized.

The timing was spot on. The idea of urbanized and poor drainage flooding was spot on, though in this case “nuisance” probably feels the wrong word choice in hindsight, but it’s likely what had been expected. And, frankly it just underscores how serious flooding can be. This was really a nuisance flooding event brought on by the type of rain that occur in NYC more than once a year. It ended up being damaging and sadly fatal. While work on improving New York’s resilience to extreme weather continues, I think it’s fair to say that they have a long way yet to go. It also highlights the challenges of pinpointing the areas at most risk to a flash flood event. While model guidance had favored New Jersey, a slight deviation placed it over New York City. Both newer and older cities have their fair share of flooding challenges.

The week ahead

Looking at the forecast precipitation for this week, it’s pretty clear where the headlines will be: The West Coast. An atmospheric river will crash into the West Coast with a couple storms that look set to dump heavy rain and some mountain snow in the Cascades south into northern California, mainly north of the Bay Area.

A wet West Coast as the week goes on. (Pivotal Weather)

Additional heavy precipitation will fall inland across northern Idaho and the Bitterroots. This will be a fairly warm storm overall, so snow levels will be up around 5,000 to 6,000 feet in the northern Rockies and into Washington, possibly even a bit higher to the west and mostly out of reach to the south (over 8,000 feet).

A strong, warm atmospheric river (possibly level 4/5) will focus on coastal Oregon and northern California in particular. (Scripps Center for Western Weather & Water Extremes)

The temperature maps look quite warm, especially in the Rockies, Southwest, and Plains through Upper Midwest. The fall preview we’ve been enjoying in the South will ebb away through the week.