Matt Lanza

Melissa is now a top 5 storm all-time, and it is about to make landfall in Jamaica

In brief: Hurricane Melissa is one of the 4 strongest Atlantic storms on record, and it is making landfall in Jamaica as I type this. Horrific impacts are expected there, followed by significant impacts in Cuba later today and tomorrow. Our thoughts are with our Caribbean neighbors.

Very few places in the world have ever experienced in modern times what Jamaica is going through or about to go through this morning.

Massive hurricanes and typhoons do occasionally make landfall, but at this level of intensity it is rare. Melissa is essentially undergoing another round of rapid intensification as it approaches landfall in Jamaica. As of this writing, the barometric pressure was as low as 892 mb, tied for third strongest on record in the Atlantic with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, just behind Gilbert in 1988 and Wilma in 2005. It has maximum sustained winds of 185 mph. Notably, the maximum sustained winds only extend out about 10 miles from the center, so the worst damage will be concentrated within about 10 to 20 miles of the eyewall’s path. On an island that’s Jamaica’s size however, that’s a substantial swath of area.

Melissa’s appearance is more similar to that of a western Pacific typhoon. This merits another post down the line, but there are really only two areas where such storms could occur in the Atlantic: the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. These types of storms look like buzzsaws on satellites; their structure is meteorologically perfect.

Hurricanes Wilma and Gilbert above (Credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS & NOAA) and Hurricane Melissa below (Credit: cyclonicwx.com)

Even when comparing this to Gilbert and Wilma, the two strongest satellite era companions to Melissa, it does appear that Melissa may have the most pristine structure. Satellite resolution has improved dramatically since 1988 and 2005, but even in those cases, it would seem that Melissa has the more meteorologically perfect look. Wilma did have that pinhole eye, of course, which can also be reminiscent of a Pacific typhoon. Whatever the case, all we can do is hope and pray right now that Jamaicans are as safe as possible. While that is a hurricane battle tested location, there is no place in the world, even America, that is truly adequately prepared to handle a top 5 storm on record.

(NOAA/NHC)

From here, the next stop is Cuba, and we continue to see strong support for a landfall just to the west of Santiago de Cuba, the second largest city in the country. Jamaica will take a big bite out of Melissa for sure, though the center should pass just west of the highest terrain and over a relatively narrower part of the island. I would anticipate that a category 3 or 4 storm is likely to hit Cuba tomorrow morning. As previously noted, this looks worse than Sandy and potentially the worst on record in eastern Cuba. The worst winds should pass to the west of Guantanamo Bay. But heavy rain and significant flooding are likely with over 20 inches more rainfall possible there.

Additional rains expected through tomorrow and early Thursday. (NOAA WPC)

Once across Cuba, Melissa will weaken a little more, entering the southeast Bahamas likely as a category 2 storm. The center of the storm and worst wind will likely pass near Long Island and Crooked Island, while impacts will be felt over a wider area, including for portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Thereafter, Melissa accelerates off to the northeast and starts to slowly turn extratropical in nature. This should allow Melissa to sustain as a hurricane all the way to Bermuda, where it will make a close pass on Thursday night and Friday morning. Bermuda will find itself likely on the east side of the storm, so significant rain and wind are likely there, but the impacts will be more muted in nature than in the Caribbean islands or even the Bahamas.

Melissa is a historic storm, and it’s almost guaranteed to have its name retired in the offseason, adding to a litany of “M” storms in the Caribbean that have inflicted so much pain and suffering, like Mitch and Maria. Our thoughts are with the affected areas, and we will provide some links on how to send financial help to those areas once the storm passes.

Hurricane Melissa enters the elite club of the 20 most powerful Atlantic hurricanes in the satellite era

In brief: Melissa is a remarkable storm in many aspects, from its slow motion to its intensity. But with severe direct human impacts expected in Jamaica by tomorrow morning, it’s tough to find any enthusiasm in the fascinating meteorological story unfolding with Melissa. We discuss the latest track and outlook for the storm.

Over the last 8 years or so, I feel like we’ve seen a number of weather events that make you pause and say, “Yeah, that really is awful.” Of course, bad storms have always happened. Extraordinary weather has always happened. There are countless weather events throughout history where you stop and say, “If that happened today it would be calamitous.” But it just seems like the frequency of these events, these mouth-agape events has just ramped up in recent years. Many of them are hurricanes, yes, but it does run the gamut from winter storms to extreme heat to floods to everything in between. Nature’s violence never ceases to amaze and terrify. And here we are again in the same situation.

Melissa became a category 5 storm this morning and then proceeded to join a club of elite storms, the 17 strongest on record, according to Dr. Kim Wood of the University of Arizona. The last storm to reach the 150 kt. maximum sustained wind threshold was Milton last year. Other notable names to do this include Maria, Mitch, Gilbert, Andrew, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and Camille. It’s a literal unanimous first ballot hall of fame of storms.

An absolutely monster. (Cyclonicwx.com)

Maximum sustained winds remain at 175 mph this evening. There’s been some question if they’ve actually been stronger at times today, but it doesn’t really matter ultimately. It’s a question of semantics. The end result is all but written at this point with respect to Jamaica: It’s going to be a horribly bad storm for many places there. Many folks will be agonizing over each wobble on satellite this evening, but with a storm this powerful, it will find its way north and eventually into Jamaica, probably on the western half of the island. And besides that, the 15 to 30 inches of rain that most of the island will receive is bad enough alone.

(NOAA/NHC)

The question now is just how bad it will be on Jamaica. It’s also a question of how bad it will be in eastern Cuba. Melissa will definitely have lower intensity after crossing Jamaica. In the unlikely event that it somehow skirts and misses the island to the west, it could very well be an extremely powerful storm in Cuba. Interests there should be preparing for a bad storm regardless, easily the worst since Sandy in that part of Cuba. But there is a line between awfully bad and awful, and that’s what is riding on Melissa’s track tonight for Cuba.

The storm should be a lesser hurricane once it emerges off Cuba into the Bahamas, however several intensity models continue to show perhaps a small bump once in or just clear of the Bahamas. Basically, expect a significant storm in the southeast Bahamas, with perhaps a bump in intensity once past there. For Bermuda, it will be a close call with most models placing Melissa near or just west of Bermuda as it passes. Either way, the impact of a hurricane seems increasingly likely as Melissa’s wind field inevitably expands as it lifts northeast. More to come on those aspects of the storm.

Whatever the case, Melissa will enter a fragile period tonight where the atmosphere suggests additional intensification is possible, while the storm is pushing the limits of how long a hurricane can go without an eyewall replacement cycle disrupting it somewhat. While the outcome for Jamaica seems unlikely to change, the meteorological element and history books may change a bit depending on what Melissa gets up to tonight. All we can do now is watch and hope for the best.

Hurricane Melissa becomes the season’s third category 5 storm and its most dire

In brief: Hurricane Melissa has officially become a category 5 storm, and all the bad forecasts for Jamaica and elsewhere are mostly unchanged today. Notably, Melissa will also be the strongest storm since Sandy to hit eastern Cuba and may very well be worse, possibly the strongest on record there. Melissa will continue across the southeast Bahamas and into the open Atlantic, though it may impact Bermuda on the way out as well. Overall, Melissa continues to look like a catastrophic storm and the worst of 2025 in the Atlantic basin.

(NOAA/NHC)

Hurricane Melissa finally crossed the threshold into category 5 status this morning. Maximum sustained winds are 160 mph, and it is moving west at 3 mph.

Melissa’s structure is nearly perfect this morning. (College of DuPage)

There is little to say about Melissa’s intensity and threat that has not already been said. It’s as dangerous an outcome as we’ve seen for Jamaica in many years.

The only perhaps subtle change we’ve seen for Jamaica is probably that the track has nudged a little farther south than expected initially and landfall in Jamaica proper probably will occur a smidge farther west. Whether this practically means anything different, it’s tough to say, but little nudges and wobbles will be evident over the next 24 hours that end up leading to some degree of good and bad luck in parts of Jamaica. As it stands right now, the center should cross the island about 60 miles west of Kingston, the population center of Jamaica. Of course, that places Kingston on the stronger side of the storm but with hurricane force winds confined to about a 30 mile radius from the center, there’s likely going to be a buffer between the capital and the worst wind of the storm. That said, there will be significant rainfall, catastrophic winds in the mountains in particular, and likely significant damage and isolation for a number of smaller towns and villages across the country. Storm surge will also be catastrophic on parts of the south shore of Jamaica in particular.

Various European and AI ensemble model forecasts for Melissa’s track over the next few days, bringing into western Jamaica and very near Santiago de Cuba before tracking near Crooked and Long Islands in the Bahamas. (Google Weather Lab)

As far as intensity goes, expect either a high-end cat 4 at best or a cat 5 of some intensity. Strengthening is possible through the day today, but typically once at category 5 intensity, the storm does become prone to internal processes that can lead to intensity fluctuations after no more than 18 to 24 hours. At this point, you just hope it comes into Jamaica in a downward intensity cycle due to those internal processes, such as an eyewall replacement cycle. Those can’t typically be forecast well in the current state of the science.

For Cuba, Melissa will have some time back over warm water to recover some of what it inevitably loses over land, so I would still be expecting at least a major hurricane, with some chance of a category 4 storm. The track brings it very near Santiago de Cuba, the second largest city in the country. While the focus remains on Jamaica, don’t lose sight of the fact that this is going to be a particularly severe storm for eastern Cuba. This should be the strongest storm since Sandy to hit this part of Cuba from the south, and there’s a good chance it may be even stronger than that at landfall. Sandy killed 11 and destroyed over 15,000 homes in Santiago de Cuba.

Updated rainfall forecast for the Caribbean and Bahamas through the next 72 hours. (NOAA WPC)

Rainfall continues to look horrific for parts of Jamaica, where 20 to 30 inches (500-750 mm) or more may fall in spots in addition to what has already fallen. For Cuba, eastern provinces will see 15 to 20 inches of rain (375-500 mm). There could still be another foot (300 mm) of rain coming to Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula, as well as up to 10 inches (250 mm) or so in some of the Dominican Republic. In the Bahamas, we could see up to 8 inches (200 mm) or so near Crooked Island.

Looking down the road, there remains a fair bit of uncertainty, but a track placing the storm very near Bermuda on late Thursday night and Friday morning, possibly as a major hurricane seems plausible. A lot will depend on what Melissa’s structure looks like once it exits Jamaica and Cuba, but as long as its core is in-tact, there’s no reason a little re-strengthening could not occur in the southwest Atlantic before it levels off and begins to weaken south of Bermuda. For Bermuda, that means another possible hurricane impact this season.

Bottom line:

Jamaica: A top-end hurricane impact with catastrophic damage in parts of the country, substantial damaging flooding, and historic storm surge.

Cuba: One of the strongest recorded storms to hit the eastern provinces of the island and the worst since Hurricane Sandy in 2012. A major hurricane is likely to make landfall tomorrow night with severe wind, surge, and rainfall.

Hispaniola: Lingering heavy rain will cause additional flooding, mudslides, and landslides, particularly within the Tiburon Peninsula in Haiti.

Bahamas: A major hurricane passing through the areas around Crooked and Long Islands will occur Wednesday with significant wind and rain and surge in those southeast islands.

Turks and Caicos Islands: Mostly fringe impacts of locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and moderate surge. But still some uncertainty on exact track so vigilance is encouraged.

Bermuda: Potential for a direct hurricane impact by Thursday night and Friday, though uncertainty is high.

Melissa explodes into a powerful hurricane, and it is going to deliver catastrophic impacts to Jamaica

In brief: Melissa’s forecast has not changed much at all since yesterday unfortunately. The storm should slowly crawl south of Jamaica through tomorrow before turning north and hitting the middle of the island directly as a high-end major hurricane, possibly the strongest in Jamaica’s known history. Catastrophic impacts from surge, wind, and multiple days of torrential rain are likely. A slightly less intense (but likely still major hurricane) storm will hit eastern provinces of Cuba on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with severe impacts. Significant impacts are likely in the southeast Bahamas and perhaps Turks and Caicos Islands as a borderline major hurricane passes by on Wednesday. Bermuda should remain on alert for tropical storm or hurricane impacts by Friday.

Melissa surges to category 4 intensity

(NOAA/NHC)

It feels like it has become routine in recent years to witness storms going from disjointed to mammoth in just a day or two, and Melissa has done nothing to squelch that feeling. Just 24 hours ago, we had a modest storm spinning up, and today we are left with a storm closing in on becoming a monster as it traverses the warmest water in the Atlantic basin.

Note how little Melissa has moved in 24 hours and also how well defined it has become. (College of DuPage)

As noted last night, Melissa did move to the southwest a bit, which all but guarantees it will come into Jamaica as a high-end major hurricane tomorrow night and Tuesday morning. Melissa has sort of leveled off intensity-wise this morning, and we could see internal processes lead to some fluctuation in intensity today or tomorrow. Frankly, that’s just background noise more than anything, and the expectation is that we will probably have something close to a category 5 hitting Jamaica from the south Tuesday morning.

For details on storm surge, I recommend checking out Michael Lowry’s post this morning on that. He has a nice breakdown of what could end up happening.

Over the next 24 hours, Melissa will continue off to the west before it slams on the brakes and turns north and north-northeast, plowing right into Jamaica likely somewhere west of Kingston and east of Montego Bay. From there, it should continue off to the northeast and into Cuba. Landfall there looks to be between Las Tunas and Guantanamo. Melissa will likely be a bit less intense when it gets to Cuba, but it should still be a formidable, destructive major hurricane.

Melissa’s track spread widens beyond the Bahamas, with Bermuda firmly in the cone right now, albeit by a much less intense storm than it will be in Jamaica and Cuba. (Google Weather Lab)

Next up for Melissa will be the Bahamas. Model guidance gets a little fishier on timing here. Landfall in Cuba should occur roughly around midnight or just a little later Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. It will emerge through the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands during the day on Wednesday with deteriorating conditions probably around or just before sunrise Wednesday. As it moves through the Bahamas, it will probably be below major hurricane intensity, but it should still be a rather potent storm in that area. Melissa should pick up additional forward speed, exiting the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos quickly by Wednesday night. The track spread widens some beyond that, but Bermuda remains in the realm of possibility. Folks should keep monitoring the situation there, however although hurricane impacts are possible, the storm will be a much different and less intense system by then. Some of the predicted times here could fluctuate 12 to 18 hours in either direction as Melissa’s end game becomes clearer.

Melissa’s rainfall forecast from today into the upcoming week shows catastrophic amounts of rain in Jamaica, parts of eastern Cuba, and southwest Haiti. (NOAA/WPC)

The rainfall forecast remains just awful. Additional rain on top of what has fallen could be as much as 40 inches in eastern Jamaica (1,000 mm). Many areas will see 20 to 30 inches more, however. And most of this falls before the catastrophic wind and surge arrives. This is truly just a nightmarish type of worst-case scenario for Jamaica. Copious rain will make certain structures and infrastructure additionally vulnerable to already terrible hurricane conditions. In Haiti, rains will continue that could add up to another 15 to 20 inches in spots (375-500 mm) on the Tiburon Peninsula. As Melissa turns north, heavy rain will overspread eastern Cuba as well, perhaps adding up to 15 to 20 inches (375-500 mm) in Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, and Holguin. Rain of 6 to 10 inches is possible in the southeast Bahamas.

So, to summarize all this:

  • A historic, catastrophic storm is on tap for Jamaica with copious rain and some of the strongest winds experienced in modern times possible in many parts of the country. This will likely require a robust multi-national humanitarian response.
  • Continued rain may cause catastrophic impacts in southwest Haiti.
  • Severe impacts are likely in eastern provinces of Cuba, with a major hurricane (past peak) making landfall on Tuesday night or Wednesday, along with torrential rain in Guantanamo and Santiago de Cuba.
  • Significant impacts are likely in the southeast Bahamas and perhaps the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday as Melissa loses some intensity and pass through. It may still be a borderline major hurricane as it hits the islands.
  • Bermuda should be on watch for potential hurricane or tropical storm impacts by Thursday night or Friday.

Planning our next post Monday morning unless something changes significantly.