In brief: Tropical Storm Dolly has a limited amount of time left before it likely dissipates, bringing just some remnant rain to the islands. Beyond that, it seems unlikely we’ll get an encore out of Dolly in the Gulf — but there’s at least some reason not to write it off completely.
Tropical Storm Dolly officially formed yesterday out of Invest 96L in the Atlantic, a well-timed storm name for the fourth system of the season. Much like the previous 3 this year, Dolly is not going to hold it together for very long.
The only thing Dolly really has going for it is an area of thunderstorms in its northern semicircle. (WeatherFront)
The storm currently sits well east of the Lesser Antilles. Over the next couple days, Dolly will rapidly move west northwest toward the islands, but simultaneously wind shear is going to increase, dry air is not going to improve things, and the forward motion will continue fast. The combination of these factors puts a very strong cap on Dolly’s potential intensity. In fact, in most cases, model guidance degenerates Dolly to an open wave
Google Deep Mind keeps Dolly a tropical storm for about 36 more hours before collapsing it on approach to the islands. (Google)
The Google Deep Mind operational model drops the percentage of ensemble members showing Dolly as a coherent system from 100% today to about 10% by Sunday evening.
So at this point, any impacts in the Caribbean should be limited to rain. And this is actually good news. Almost half of Puerto Rico is currently sitting in extreme drought.
Drought is hammering Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this summer (US Drought Monitor)
Thanks in part to the strong El Niño, much of the Caribbean is dealing with drought right now. So any rain is welcome. How much rain will we see in these areas? Hopefully a solid 1 to 2 inches falls from this. Usually in drought, the risk is that the forecast comes in lighter than expected.
European AIFS ensemble model forecast rainfall for the Caribbean through next Wednesday evening. (WeatherFront)
Either way, once in the Caribbean, it seems likely that any remnants of Dolly will be further hampered by shear and land interaction.
The question beyond midweek focuses heavily on what conditions Dolly’s remnants are in once near the Gulf or Florida. If Dolly has some lingering thunderstorms sticking with it, once near the Bahamas or Florida or Gulf, perhaps Dolly may have a chance to organize a little again. If Dolly is ripped up good, then it would be unlikely to do much of anything. Basically, while it seems highly unlikely any remnant of Dolly would do anything once near the Gulf, it’s one of those things you just never feel good totally writing off this time of year. So, let’s see how things trend through the weekend. And let’s hope some parts of the Caribbean can get some welcome rains.
In brief: Invest 96L is holding its own in the Atlantic, and in fact that’s probably all we’re going to get out of it for the next several days. About a week from now, the story could get a bit more interesting, so we explain why and the things to watch in the days ahead.
Invest 96L
With 95L out of the picture now, we can focus solely on the main wave, Invest 96L in the eastern Atlantic.
Invest 96L is maintaining thunderstorms but isn’t progressing quickly toward development. (WeatherFront)
The disturbance is not really progressing forward toward development but not exactly falling apart either. It’s just like one of us, working 9 to 5 and holding it together one day at a time. Both shear and dry air are at levels keeping it capped but also not exactly destroying it either. And realistically, this is probably where we’re going to be for a few days. Wind shear doesn’t look totally prohibitive, but it’s going to be present near the system for its entire trek across the Atlantic. Dry air doesn’t look totally prohibitive, but it’s going to be present near the system for its entire trek across the Atlantic.
Wind shear will likely cap the risk of development of 96L and certainly cap the potential for intensification. (Tropical Tidbits)
A 70 percent probability of development feels a bit generous at this point, but truthfully, you could probably make a case anywhere from 10 to 80 percent with this one right now and it would be logical. Despite the high odds of development, I think it’s important to note that at least over the next 4 to 5 days, intensification seems highly unlikely. Could you get a depression or weak tropical storm? Sure. Would it get any worse than that through the weekend? No.
Our next real meaningful waypoint with 96L will be in about a week. At that point, we would expect Invest 96L, whatever degree of organization it is in to be located somewhere between the northern Caribbean and just east of the Bahamas.
Next Monday sees Invest 96L somewhere between the northern Caribbean and southeast Bahamas (Tropical Tidbits)
It’s at that point that modeling gets a little funkier with things. The overarching pattern next week should feature a pretty broad area of high pressure in the upper atmosphere from the Desert Southwest into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Well to the northeast of 96L at that time should be a trough in the North Atlantic. I would anticipate (at least looking right now at things) that both 96L and the trough will not be strong enough to link up and quickly usher the disturbance out to sea. So what may end up happening here is that 96L kind of sits off the Bahamas. From here it becomes a little more challenging to answer where it goes, but I would think that the overall pattern would support a bit of a turn north and eventually out to sea. It’s also an open question to wonder what sort of environment 96L will be in at that point.
The situation next Wednesday. (Tropical Tidbits)
I would assume that shear would be a good bit lower in the Southwest Atlantic at that time, but I’m not sure dry air or general weak instability that’s been hampering the basin won’t still be an issue.
So, that’s where we stand: Low risk of any meaningful development through about Monday or so. Then, the story gets a little more interesting but not nearly at a point where it’s concerning. If anything, model support over even the last 12 hours has dipped somewhat. Just something to watch. The good news is this is the only game in town right now, and there’s no sign of anything else meaningful in the pipeline at this point. More to come!
In brief: Invests 95L and 96L have our attention in the Atlantic, though 95 is no threat to anyone, and 96 probably isn’t a threat either. That said, we take a deeper look at 96L and its future over the next week or so.
Watching the Atlantic right now is like putting a towel back in the drier and discovering it’s still damp. It’s not boring like watching paint dry. It’s just kind of frustrating. Are we going to get there? I mean, no one will complain if we don’t. But at this point, every disturbance that makes a go of it over the Atlantic thinks they’re evil Anakin Skywalker. “I’m a big, bad tropical wave. You want to stop me?”
Of course, it didn’t exactly end well for Anakin, and it probably won’t end well for most of these disturbances. But the question is if they stir something up in the interim.
Invest 95L
The disturbance east of Bermuda looked like it wanted to have a go at times. But thus far it has fallen short.
Invest 95L is just a little too stretched out, and it seems like it will fall short of developing. (WeatherFront)
Will it do it today? I’m doubtful. It has about 12 to 18 hours left to do something before it runs out of runway. And at this point, it just looks too strung out to be able to consolidate enough.
Invest 96L
Newly minted Invest 96L is the one we’re most interested in at this point.
Invest 96L is struggling a bit this morning, but its longer term prospects are modestly more interesting. (WeatherFront)
Looking at it on satellite, it’s still just a seedling of a tropical wave this morning. And over the next couple days, it will gradually try to organize itself. It currently sits in a relatively modest shear environment, though there is a bit of drier air nearby. So by no means will this organize swiftly.
Google Deep Mind’s operational ensemble has no interest in Invest 96L. (Google)
Models have mostly held their positions since yesterday. It does seem like the European model’s AIFS is a little less enthused today. And Google’s Deep Mind operational ensemble is totally uninterested. The tropical models are a little bit more bulled up but even they’re quite mixed. On the whole, we’re basically in the same spot we were 24 hours ago, so I won’t belabor the point. Odds of development around 60 to 70 percent, though generous aren’t unreasonable. But we aren’t anywhere over that right now.
The AIFS ensemble is weak but also a little more engaged with the possibility of Invest 96L trying to organize over the next week. (Polarwx.com)
In terms of the future track of 96L, be it as a remnant tropical wave or as a nascent system, its future will initially be dictated by the Bermuda high, which will build west across the Atlantic as 96L moves west, keeping on a westerly or west-northwesterly course through at least Saturday or Sunday.
Over the next 5 days, the Bermuda high will expand west across the Atlantic, allowing 96L to stay in the MDR while it moves west or west-northwest. (Tropical Tidbits)
Where is the Bermuda high? Look at the big 597 bullseye over the open Atlantic. Thereafter, if 96L is weak, it may end up buried in the Caribbean, likely left to perish or track closer to the Antilles and Puerto Rico, where it still would face an uphill battle. If 96L is moderate, it would likely “feel” an expected weakening Bermuda high after Sunday (just after this model loop ends) and turn northwest and north fairly quickly, likely heading out into the open Atlantic. Neither scenario should get anyone too worked up right now, but we’ll keep an eye on things through the week and see how it all progresses. It’s late August. You never take anything for granted this time of year.
Beyond 96L
Anything else? Nothing specific at this time. There is model noise, as there always is this time of year, even in strong El Niño events. But I can’t really point to any specific disturbance beyond Invest 96L to home in on right now.
I suppose if you want to look for some intrigue, the Pacific is where you’d go. The NHC has seven disturbances on the board, be they active or in the outlook. The area with a 90% chance of development may be the most intriguing.
Google Deep Mind is pretty aggressive with the next possible Pacific system, though most members keep it out at sea, as do most other models. (Google)
While most modeling kicks it west across the Pacific, there is a small subset that does try to lift this northward in time. If that happens, we could see some remnant moisture end up in the Southwest. That would not necessarily be a bad thing, as the monsoon has been fairly disappointing in many areas so far this year. But I would not exactly get my hopes up yet in the desert.
In brief: The Atlantic is getting a little busier, but whether anything can legitimately organize is an open question. Plus, we talk about a historic summer in southern New England, the ongoing El Niño hype, and Hawaii today.
Apologies for not posting the last couple days. I’ve actually been working on some new stuff I hope we can use on our sister site, Space City Weather in the coming weeks. If I’m lucky, it will have application here too. Either way, progress on new things!
Atlantic business time?
The Euro, Euro AI, and GFS ensemble have had mid-2000s Flight of the Conchords on repeat, because to them, it’s just about business time in the Atlantic. We have two disturbances worth monitoring. Whether either develops remains to be seen.
Two disturbances with about 50/50 chances to organize. (WeatherFront)
The first and most time-sensitive area is Invest 95L, which is located southeast of Bermuda. This one should be no threat to land, including Bermuda at this point. The question is whether it has time enough to organize. I’m leaning no on this one, and if it does form, it won’t get much past depression or very, very weak tropical storm status. This one would be classified as a “throwaway” storm, one that gets a name, tacks on a smidge of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), and dissipates almost as fast as it forms. Sort of like Cristobal.
The more notable area to watch is the wave emerging off Africa today. The NHC tags this one with a 50 percent chance of development. We again see this rather curious split where Google’s Deep Mind model is not at all enthused, while the global model suite and European AI model all want to slowly develop this over the next 5 to 7 days.
Of the 1,000 members in Google’s larger Deep Mind ensemble, about 16 percent develop the wave off Africa. (tcatlas.org)
Google’s model has done very good this year at tempering expectations, whereas the globals have had their share of false alarms. That means something. And in this case, it would be sensible to keep our expectations low with respect to this system.
At least half of the AIFS ensemble members develop the disturbance, though this model has been rather aggressive with the genesis of storms so far this summer. (Weathernerds.org)
A couple notes about this one. First, it’s going to be moving west at a pretty good clip to start. This may disrupt the initial organization somewhat. Second, as it approaches the Caribbean, it appears that the Bermuda high is going to expand westward with it, meaning it may not turn north as quick as some other modeled systems have looked over the last couple weeks. However, the Bermuda high may begin to break down and retreat again next weekend allowing this disturbance to begin to gain latitude and probably turn north and northeast out to sea, but it’s something we’ll keep tabs on.
Again, the environment around the disturbance will probably feature some degree of wind shear and dry, stable air, so we’d classify the development chances as “marginally conducive” at best right now. The El Niño has not gone (and will not go) anywhere, so the root problems remain for systems trying to develop. We’ll keep watch, but again, low expectations here.
Other notes
Speaking of El Niño, if you start seeing strongly worded headlines, contrary to what we usually tell you here, believe them. The hype here is warranted to a point. This is far and away on the way to becoming the strongest El Niño we’ve seen in modern history. What it means for your day to day is obviously more nuanced than a headline or even we can tell you. But the usual El Niño hallmarks will be amplified in the months ahead. Here in the U.S., that means folks on the coasts will want to pay particular attention, as it will likely get stormy heading into fall and winter. Buckle up, California.
Typical generic global impacts of El Niño (NOAA)
And speaking of the coasts… I gotta tell you, since moving to Connecticut last month, it reminds me of Houston. We’ve had north of 10 inches of rain over the last month, and in fact, Bridgeport, CT has a new record for summer rainfall: 2.35″ yesterday puts them at 21.20″ for Summer 2026, surpassing the summer of 1972 (of Hurricane Agnes fame) for wettest summer on record. Impressive to do this without a remnant tropical system.
Since July 1st, it has been soggy as can be from southern New England back into Ohio. (High Plains Regional Climate Center)
Southern Connecticut and Long Island have seen north of 200% of normal rainfall since the beginning of July. Islip is sitting at their 9th wettest summer on record. Another half-inch to inch or so may fall before we hit September, so there’s time to work up the leaderboard or pad the stats some more. Wet, y’all!
Hawaii escapes Moke
Most gauges on the Big Island of Hawaii have been calm with Tropical Storm Moke passing well to the south of Hawaii. Still, some heavy rain has fallen in a few spots.
About 1 to 3 inches with a couple higher amounts in areas without gauges occurred in the higher terrain of the Big Island over the last 48 hours. (NOAA)
And a flood watch remains in effect through Monday afternoon. Thankfully not as bad as it could have been.
