Matt Lanza

Pacific Hurricane Erick on the way to becoming a major hurricane and impacting Mexico

In brief: Hurricane Erick is expected to make landfall early Thursday morning in the state of Guerrero, east of Acapulco in Mexico as a major hurricane. Heavy rain, bad surge, and powerful winds will impact the Mexico coasts of eastern Guerrero and Oaxaca. In the U.S., a major heat wave will rev up this weekend and next week in the East.

Hurricane Erick

One look at Erick on satellite this afternoon, and you can see that this thing is well put together.

Hurricane Erick is a category 2 storm likely heading to at least category 3 intensity before making landfall in coastal early Thursday morning. (Weathernerds.org)

Erick was a 50 mph tropical storm this time on Tuesday, and it’s now a 100 mph hurricane. While there is still some uncertainty on how high Erick’s ceiling is, the track is coming into pretty clear focus now. Erick should make landfall later tonight in eastern Guerrero in Mexico, with significant impacts there (east of Acapulco) and in Oaxaca. Hurricane warnings extend from Acapulco to Puerto Angel, with hurricane watches west of Acapulco and tropical storm warnings on both sides of the hurricane warnings.

(Tomer Burg)

Erick is rapidly intensifying, and several models are pushing Erick into major hurricane status by tonight. Given that satellite loop above and the conditions ahead of Erick near the coast of Mexico, I see no reason why Erick won’t be at least a low-end Cat 3 when it makes landfall tonight.

Obviously, Erick will bring a high end hurricane impact to the coast of Mexico tonight near and especially east of where it comes ashore, which includes much of Oaxaca. But impacts will go far beyond just wind and surge. In fact, rainfall forecasts call for a total of 16 to 20 inches (400-500 mm) of rain in coastal Oaxaca.

Total rainfall expected from Erick. (NOAA WPC)

This will be a very bad night in coastal Oaxaca and portions of coastal Guerrero. Thought with folks there as the first big storm of the 2025 season bears down on Mexico.

Erick will dissipate over Mexico as it lifts north inland over the mountains.

Eastern U.S. heat wave upcoming

With the rest of the tropics quiet at this time, we’ll take a quick look at the upcoming heat wave that’s expected to unfurl over the Eastern United States. An extremely impressive and large area of sprawling high pressure is going to intensify and expand over the eastern half of the country this weekend and next week.

Very strong high pressure will expand and intensify next week in the East, allowing for some serious summer heat. (Pivotal Weather)

In some areas, it’ll be interesting to see just how strong this ridge gets, with the Euro ensemble suggesting that there’s a non-zero chance that upper level heights will reach all-time records.

A 20 to 30 percent probability of all-time record high 500 mb heights exists next week over the Mid-Atlantic. (Tomer Burg/PolarWx)

This type of heat event will likely threaten a number of records in the Midwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic next week. In fact, you can see based on current NWS forecasts (which are often somewhat conservative 6 to 7 days out), we’ve got several dozen record warm minimums forecast or threatened and several record highs as well.

Numerous record warm minimum temperatures are forecast on Tuesday. (NOAA)

It’s the nighttime minimum temperatures that never cool off that can separate a bad heat wave from an unbearably bad one. So seeing this many forecast records this far ahead of the event is impressive and concerning. Heat precautions will be advised next week in the East!

The pattern should relax some later in the week.

High five: Erick forms in the Pacific, likely to be a hurricane for southern Mexico

In brief: The Atlantic remains calm, while the Pacific churns out its fifth storm, this one probably the strongest of the season so far, headed for hurricane intensity. Severe weather should also impact Kansas today.

Moment of meteorological Zen

Image of one of the most photogenic tornadoes you’ll ever see by one of my favorite storm chasers. This occurred on Monday evening near Wellfleet, Nebraska. It appears this occurred over open land, and I cannot find any reports of damage. Truly awestriking.

Today’s tornado risk shifts into Kansas.

Severe weather risk is moderate (4/5) in Kansas today due to tornado risk, very, very strong wind risk, and large hail. (NOAA SPC)

Tornadoes take the cake, but strong winds are the story today. Wichita has already seen a 101 mph gust this morning! Additional powerful storms are likely later today with 80 mph winds or stronger possible from eastern Colorado into Kansas. Be safe there.

Pacific Tropical Storm Erick

We’ve added the fifth storm of the Pacific season to the list as of this morning. Tropical Storm Erick has formed, and this one has some higher side potential as it moves toward the western coast of Mexico.

(NOAA NHC)

The forecast from the NHC and some modeling is actually quite aggressive with Erick. The official forecast brings this up to a cat 2 with 100 mph winds by the time it makes landfall late tomorrow night. However, some tropical models do indicate the potential for Erick to become a borderline major hurricane by the time it reaches land.

This is one of those storms that’s going to induce impacts on a wide swath of coast because of its forecast track and the geography of Mexico. The longer that this stays over water, the stronger it could get, and the wider the impacts on the coast of Oaxaca and Guerrero. The current track keeps it east of Acapulco. But it will be a somewhat close call. Eventually, even if stays offshore, proximity to land will probably induce weakening, but Erick should be a pretty significant storm for southern Mexico, particularly in Oaxaca.

Rainfall forecast for Mexico and Guatemala from Erick showing perhaps a foot or more in portions of Oaxaca. (NOAA WPC)

In addition, the heavy rains will continue up the east coast of Mexico through Veracruz and possibly Tamaulipas as a Bay of Campeche disturbance gets absorbed into the mess.

Otherwise, we are not expecting any tropical development in the Atlantic this week.

Tropical disturbances likely to bring significant rain to Mexico and possibly far south Texas later this week

In brief: A developing storm in the Eastern Pacific may combine with an unlikely to develop disturbance in the Bay of Campeche to deliver a significant rainfall to Mexico or parts of far South Texas later this week. Otherwise, the tropics appear quiet.

We do not expect any tropical development in the Atlantic this week. But there is still a disturbance to discuss in the Bay of Campeche later this week, as well as continued Pacific activity.

Bay of Campeche disturbance

While we do not expect any organized development in the Gulf or Caribbean this week, a disturbance we’ve been discussing for about 7 to 10 days now is going to arrive in the Bay of Campeche around midweek. Because of how close it is to the coast and the steering currents aloft, it should quickly move ashore before it has any time to develop.

The weather is busy along the coasts of Central America and Mexico, but there is no organization to any of these disturbances. (Weathernerds.org)

The overall upper pattern once it gets inland, however, will feature a slowing system, as well as assistance from what should become Tropical Storm or Hurricane Erick (currently Invest 94E) in the Pacific. With Erick coming ashore likely in Oaxaca or Guerrero, and the Bay of Campeche disturbance coming ashore between Tampico and Veracruz, we are likely to see a substantial amount of moisture plow into that part of Mexico.

4 to 8 inches of rain is expected over the next week in portions of the Mexican Gulf Coast, as well as in southern Mexico near Oaxaca. (StormVista)

Models are currently hinting that 4 to 8 inches (100-200 mm) could fall in eastern Mexico from this scenario (and in southern Mexico). It is possible that some of that moisture makes it as far north as the Rio Grande Valley, which could also lead to heavy rainfall in parts of South Texas. We’ll keep tabs on this through the week to see how the rainfall forecast evolves across Mexico and Texas.

Eastern Pacific

Invest 94E in the eastern Pacific, as noted above, is likely to become a tropical storm or (perhaps) hurricane named Erick this week. The ultimate destination is probably somewhere in Oaxaca or Guerrero in southern Mexico. Models have been somewhat polarizing on how strong this one gets, but in general,

Invest 94E in the Pacific is likely to come ashore somewhere between Oaxaca and Guerrero later this week, with a rather wide spread in potential track outcomes. (Tomer Burg)

Right now the disturbance sits off the Mexican coast, rather disorganized. But over the next 24 to 48 hours, we should see 94E slowly get together. From there it should track northwest toward the coast of southern Mexico, arriving by Thursday. There’s a pretty wide berth of options with this one as you can see above. While the track density seems to point it toward Playa Zipolite or Puerto Escondido, I would not focus too much on the direct track of this one, as the moisture from it is likely to cause widespread flooding issues in Mexico later this week.

Looking ahead

The somewhat favorable pattern that established over Central America and has helped fuel a lot of the Pacific activity this month looks to break down over the next week or two. We may start to see a few tropical waves emerge off Africa with a little more robustness before June is out, but I don’t currently believe the pattern looks especially favorable for any meaningful tropical development in the Atlantic over the next 2 weeks. We’ll see if that changes at all.

Status quo continues as Atlantic activity remains unlikely for a bit

In brief: The Atlantic remains quiet, so today we look at recent pre-July activity and assess the odds of a weak disturbance forming next week in the southwest Gulf.

Quick note: Colorado State updated their seasonal hurricane outlook with no changes in expectations today. You can see the full update here.

Would anyone care to hazard a guess as to the last time we got to the end of June with no tropical storms having formed in the Atlantic? Anyone? No? Okay.

2014.

Suffice to say, the May-June storm story has been one of busy-ness the last several years, indeed the last decade. At least in terms of named storms happening.

All pre-July storms since 2014, with Hurricane Beryl sticking out like a sore thumb across the Caribbean. (NOAA)

Other than Beryl last year, most Atlantic systems this time of year are weaker. Beryl was an exceptional case that tapped into a favorable atmosphere and rocket fuel waters. In general, most of these early season outcomes are sloppier, more rain and flooding than wind and surge, and mostly infrequent. Some of the cases in recent years were borderline storms at best. Some may have been missed in the pre-satellite era. So, despite the increases in activity in recent years, it may just be that we’re seeing more of the real risk than we had previously presumed.

Whatever the case, we’ve got about 19 days left in the month. We have weather model data that covers about 14 to 15 of those, and no reliable modeling is showing any serious threat at this time. Maybe this will be the year that breaks the 11-year streak.

One area to watch next week, I guess

There is one very, very low probability candidate for development, and that remains next week in the western half of the Bay of Campeche. The window for anything to develop looks narrow; the proximity to land is a problem. But we do see at least some hints of a disturbance there.

A disturbance pinwheeling around some Pacific activity may find itself in the SW Gulf trying to develop. But it will probably run out of time and come ashore before it’s able to do so. (Tropical Tidbits)

The Pacific remains busy with another storm or two possible there over the next week. Around midweek next week, there have been fairly consistent hints in model guidance that a disturbance would sort of pinwheel out of the southwest Caribbean into the southwest Gulf of Mexico or Bay of Campeche and come ashore in Mexico around next Wednesday or Thursday. Realistically, this is almost certainly going to run out of time over water before it has a chance to develop, but the odds are slightly greater than zero.

High pressure expanding from Florida across the Gulf will probably help direct any disturbances in the southwest Gulf quickly ashore into Mexico. (Tropical Tidbits)

It does appear that high pressure building west across the Gulf (seen in the expanding reddish colors above) will push this disturbance quickly inland in Mexico and probably keep the moisture out of Texas as well.

In summary: There’s almost certainly nothing to worry about here.

And aside from that, the Atlantic is quieter than the bats of the Colorado Rockies.