Matt Lanza

Thanksgiving Wednesday travel may not be too bad, as we check out the lake effect snow this week, the tropics, and risk of Central & Eastern cold next week

In brief: Travel on Wednesday doesn’t look too bad, but some strong winds in the Midwest or Great Lakes may be a hassle. Lake effect snow cranks up in the Lakes this week as well. After Thanksgiving, the forecast grows uncertain, with a lot of hype around cold that may or may not happen. In our newsy bits section, flood issues in New York City, massive protests in the Philippines due to flood mitigation corruption, and a visit to Hill Country 4 months after the tragic floods.

Pre-Thanksgiving travel

Let’s get you caught up on Thanksgiving travel risks for Wednesday across the country. A significant winter storm will track eastward tomorrow with heavy snow from the Northern Plains through Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes. By Wednesday. the morning forecast map shows a cold front exiting the Eastern Seaboard with some lingering showers perhaps on the East Coast. A strong storm will be cranking over the Great Lakes or Ontario, which should rev up the lake effect snow machine in parts of Michigan and eventually east of there.

Wednesday morning’s forecast weather map. (NOAA WPC)

But from a travel perspective, the biggest issues will be that snow in northern Michigan and U.P., as well as perhaps some wraparound snow in Wisconsin. Strong winds may impact some flights in Chicago, Milwaukee, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, or Detroit. A few showers and storms are possible across Florida. Thankfully, the Northeast airports, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, and most of the West Coast look fine. Hopefully this keeps delays and travel headaches to a minimum. For the most part, travel TO most destinations by air or car will be fine outside of those handful of areas.

Lake effect snow machine

Heavy lake effect snow is possible in the traditional snow belts off the Great Lakes after Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

(NWS Marquette)

Snow will crank in northern Michigan and the U.P. on Wednesday with northwest winds keeping the snow going in those snowbelts Thursday and Friday. Off Erie and Ontario, from Wednesday night through Friday we’ll see lake effect snow pick up as well, mostly well south of Buffalo toward Erie, PA and on the Tug Hill Plateau north of Syracuse and Utica.

(NWS Buffalo)

This doesn’t look like an epic lake snow event, but there will be some healthy totals surely, and holiday travel on Thursday or Black Friday travel may be impacted by the lake effect snow.

Post-Thanksgiving travel & cold?

It does appear that an active weather pattern will resume this coming weekend into next week. It’s a bit tough to pin down the exact track and impacts of any one storm system, but some sort of broad impacts from rain and perhaps a wintry mix will be possible Saturday into Sunday. Return travel may be impacted by this storm system, though again it doesn’t look too crazy right now.

Cold air does look to follow this into the Central and Eastern U.S. eventually. But models continue to oscillate around on potential intensity and trajectory of the cold leaving a good deal of uncertainty. I’ve seen some pretty heady comparisons floating around with the early December cold, and those seem outright hyperbolic right now. Models cannot resolve things after this weekend in terms of how this is going to setup, so it would be wise to not assume anything about mid to late next week. Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are as warm as they’ve ever been this late in the year.

Gulf sea-surface temperatures are excessively warm for November. (Cyclonicwx.com)

Couple that with the seasonal resistance of a Southeast ridge that will likely be aided by these warm waters, as well as a distinct lack of snowpack over the Central Plains, and you can bet any cold air mass will modify a lot by the time it gets across the country.

Speaking of warm water, some models are trying to spin up a tropical system in the southwest Caribbean next week. This is unlikely to happen, but the chances are better than just writing off the GFS operational model as totally out to lunch. Seasonally, there’s a metric ton of wind shear around, which likely severely caps any storm system that tries to develop. However, a minority of ensemble members from Google Deep Mind’s suite does show this possibility.

A small handful of various members of Google Deep Mind’s ensemble, along with a few other model members do suggest a small risk of a tropical system developing in the southwest Caribbean next week. (Google Weather Lab)

If something were to develop, expect it to be weak and sloppy like the Thanksgiving dinner guest you were on the fence about inviting that has no decorum.

Newsy bits

Closing out today with some newsy bits from the various articles I’ve been opening in my tabs.

Texas: I want to start with this piece by Alan Gerard from last week that takes another look at the flooding in Texas. There’s a lot to unpack here so I suggest you read the piece yourself. So many issues are involved with this, and so much remains left to be discussed. Alan does a good job taking stock of things from ground zero, as he had a chance to visit Kerrville recently. Worth your time. (Balanced Weather)

Philippines: One issue we see time and time again around the world is corruption rearing its head when it comes to government projects. We know this is a problem at times in the U.S. And in some ways, I worry we’ve become apathetic to things. Well, in the Philippines, they’ve had enough. A recent protest in Manila attracted an estimated 650,000 people, as billions of dollars in flood mitigation funds have apparently ended up lining the pockets of company owners, government officials, and parliament members. This is a huge issue, and the group organizing it is incredibly influential in that country’s politics. Stay tuned. (The Guardian, Al Jazeera)

Southern California: After last year, the specter of a bad fire season in California certainly had people nervous. Fortunately, at least in central and southern California, the current fire season is likely over. (LAist)

Arapahoe Basin: Ever wondered how ski resorts “make” snow? Here’s an inside look at how it’s done in Arapahoe Basin. (Summit Daily)

Athens County, Ohio: Athens County, Ohio is working on a thorough project to map flooding patterns in the county thanks to a recent grant. The goal is to take the knowledge gained from the mapping to recommend and apply nature-based flooding solutions to help mitigate future flooding in the region. (The Ohio Newsroom)

New York City: A well put together piece here describes some of the challenges and possible solutions for New York City in a world of higher tides, increasing rainfall, and increasing storm surge risk. (New York Times) A $218 million project in Brooklyn, specifically Red Hook may fall short of what is needed to help reduce flooding in that neighborhood. (NY Amsterdam News) Meanwhile, in Queens, a community impacted by Sandy feels neglected and forgotten. (The Guardian)

Taking a look at Texas rains this week, while taking a peek at Thanksgiving travel weather

In brief: Stormy weather will bring some risk of flooding to Texas and perhaps Oklahoma over the next 5 days, followed by another storm system and cooler weather in the Eastern U.S. next week, just in time for Thanksgiving. Wednesday’s travel weather doesn’t look horrendous right now, but there are a couple things to watch. Plus, some links on newsier bits going on.

It’s Wednesday, November 19th, and I just wanted to check in with our audience! I am working on a more robust piece in the background on the Colorado River, a topic that is critically important beyond just the Southwest. This has ramifications nationally. A lot is going on there right now, and I’m trying to throw together a simple explainer piece for you all to understand it, as well as dump a list of books and blogs that I’ve found useful (or need to read more about) regarding this issue. Look for that soon.

In the meantime, it’s been quiet in the Eastern U.S., while busy in the West with flash flooding in California, and flood watches currently posted in Arizona.

Estimated rainfall totals for the 2 weeks ending on the morning of November 19th, showing as much as 10 to 15 inches or more of rainfall in parts of California. (NOAA)

Parts of SoCal have been drenched with the mountains north of LA seeing anywhere from 5 to 15 inches of water over the last couple weeks. California needs the water, of course, but these storms have been fairly warm, so snowpack is not a real serious consideration yet, but in general, the highest peaks are now running above average in California, Arizona, and southern Utah.

In the East, it’s warm weather that we’re talking about. Numerous record highs will be threatened today and tomorrow across the Southeast and parts of Texas. While the pace of record warmth should ease up this weekend, generally above normal temperatures look to continue into the first part of Thanksgiving week before a cooldown in time for the holiday.

Rain totals forecast over the next 5 days look pretty substantial in interior Texas and southeast Oklahoma. (Pivotal Weather)

However, a series of disturbances in the Southern Plains will create a bit of a flooding threat, particularly in Texas. Rain totals of 2-5 inches are possible, if not likely from parts of the Rio Grande Valley through Hill Country into the DFW Metro. At this time, the risk of excessive, severe flash flooding looks low. But every so often, you can get a random band of storms in a situation like this capable of dumping 6 to 10 inches of rain on someone. Hence, flood watches are posted for Hill Country.

Flood Watches from parts of the Rio Grande into Austin, San Antonio, and Hill Country. (Pivotal Weather)

A second storm system will cross the state this weekend and next week bringing additional rain Monday and Tuesday before quieter weather.

Thanksgiving weather

It’s a bit early to get too specific regarding Thanksgiving, but we can begin to make some assumptions. First, for the big travel day on Wednesday, it looks relatively quiet in Texas and the Southwest. An incoming storm system may be possible in the Northwest. We can look at probabilities of 0.01″ of liquid as a rough barometer for where weather will occur. It seems plausible that thunderstorms could impact travel through Atlanta or Florida. Winds could impact flights in Chicago and Minneapolis. And a storm system could bring some precipitation to the Northeast and/or Midwest, depending on exact timing. It does not appear that holiday travel looks severely disrupted at this time, but you may still want to watch the forecast.

Probability of 0.01″ or more of rainfall next Wednesday. (Pivotal Weather)

The environment could become favorable for some lake effect snow later Wednesday or Thursday in the Great Lakes. Temperature anomalies for Thanksgiving Day don’t look overly impressive, but some colder air will give it the autumn chill that often defines late November from the Plains and Texas into the Midwest and parts of the East. The West looks mild.

Thanksgiving Day temperature anomalies show colder than normal over much of the Eastern U.S. (Pivotal Weather)

For those of you hearing chatter about stratospheric warming and the polar vortex breaking down and other such things, this is not that. Impacts from that stratospheric warming event (if they are felt at all) would occur more into December. It’s important to keep in mind that not all stratospheric warming events are equal. Some lead to cold. Others have minimal impact. This is a branch of the science we’re gradually learning more about but are not quite experts in just yet.

Newsy bits

FEMA: The head of FEMA stepped down this week. David Richardson, who has headed the agency for the last 6 months or so was criticized for not being reachable for a full 24 hours after the July 4th floods in Texas, a pretty inexcusable moment to go MIA. Richardson, with no EM experience, admitted he thought his job was to shut down the agency, when in reality (as we’ve seen many times when folks get put in these positions), he sees the need for the agency. FEMA has issues and needs reform at scale. I trust folks like Colleen Hagerty and Samantha Montano on covering these issues. But the current administration’s desire to eliminate it entirely and push everything onto states indicates a fundamental misunderstanding of disaster response and an agency that is already greatly misunderstood by politicians and the public alike. FEMA serves a vital function in a nation that is frequently impacted by disasters.

FEMA II: Of course, who is next is the question. There is some chatter about the administration’s desire to get the head of the Texas Division of Emergency Management, Nim Kidd to be the head of FEMA. Kidd has said he won’t leave Texas. So could the administration bring FEMA to him? I will say that when you have a strong candidate for a position, it is wise to make concessions, however, moving the entire agency for one individual seems a bit much. Anyway, grab the popcorn over the next few weeks.

Western Alaska: The village of Quinhagak in Alaska lost about 60 feet of shoreline from the remnants of Typhoon Halong in October. Concerns about environmental risk were being investigated, but it also disrupted the Nunalleq archaeological site, a significant pre-contact Yup’ik site there, scattering artifacts across the beach. Efforts were undertaken to save as much of it as possible. (Alaska Public Media) Here is a mid-November update on the rebuilding efforts underway. (Alaska Public Media) How local public media was a lifeline for rural, isolated communities in Alaska during Halong. And how it’s now being dismantled due to Trump Administration budget cuts. (Alaska Public Media)

Iceland: Mosquitoes have been found in the wild Iceland for the first time in recorded history. Whether it is related to climate change or just a hitchhiker that arrived as Icelandic tourism continues to thrive, no one knows. But if a population does become established there, it obviously would not be good. Bugs like mosquitoes can survive cold though, so we’ll see if this is a blip or a trend. (New York Times)

Grand Junction, Colorado: The Aedes aegypti mosquito is establishing itself in parts of the West where it was never deemed possible previously. The culprit? Climate change. As nighttimes warm, the mosquitos have fewer opportunities to be wiped out due to harsh cold that periodically has arrived in the interior West. Grand Junction saw the fewest nights below freezing on record last winter, and it’s allowing these creatures an opportunity to survive in new places. (Inside Climate News)

Louisiana: Could floating homes help solve issues of housing and flooding risk in places like New Orleans? The idea that a home could float as water rises instead of the structure flooding is an intriguing one. Can it be done sustainably and cost-effectively? The concept has worked in some places with less engineered structures, so the question becomes whether existing, bulkier homes could be retrofitted in a way. (The Current, Lafayette, LA)

Panama Canal: Droughts, such as the one experienced in 2023 could become more frequent in the future with climate change, new research shows. At a previous job, I dealt with questions about this drought involving Gatun Lake, the primary source of water to help fill the locks in the canal (as well as a major drinking water source). While the lake often fluctuates due to El Niño and La Niña precipitation patterns in the Pacific, more frequent droughts or at least more frequent extremes is a common concern across the globe as the planet warms. (AGU)

A first look at hurricane season’s historical perspective, plus Snowvember!

In brief: Today’s post takes an early assessment of how this hurricane season will stand historically. We also have a look at this week’s weather, with mostly localized impacts including snow in West Virginia, record cold in the Southeast, and more Western moisture. Our “newsy bits” section discusses the government’s recent withdrawal from disaster relief and mitigation funding.

Good morning. Obviously the frequency of Eyewall posts will slow now that hurricane season seems to be winding down. But please let me know in the comments if there are any topics or things you want us to cover. We’ll continue to track significant weather and post on it, saving more frequent posts for more serious weather.

Hurricane season update

In the meantime, it’s November 10th. Tomorrow is Veterans Day, so a heartfelt thank you to those who have served or are still serving. But that also means that are 20 days left in hurricane season. The forecast looks quiet for the next 1 to 2 weeks, so for all intents and purposes. the season is over.

(Bone Apple Tee)

So, where does this season seem to stack up?

Three storms, our three category 5 storms, accounted for over 70 percent of the season’s accumulated cyclone energy (or ACE), which measures essentially how intense a season was. The accumulated ACE this season of 132.6 (or 132.9 depending on your source data) puts 2025 firmly in the middle of the “above normal” level.

Melissa launched us above normal this season, and the three category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) are clearly evident on this chart. (Colorado State)

Melissa’s 34.7 units of ACE were the highest since 2023’s Hurricane Lee (36.7). Overall, this season will obviously be remembered for Melissa more than any other storm. But on the whole, it will fall into the lower tier of active seasons.

The preliminary tracks and intensities of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. (NOAA/NHC)

Keep in mind that all data is still preliminary. A rigorous post-season analysis will take place that should take a better look at all the data accumulated over the season to make any tweaks.

One thing is for sure (and we’ll have more on this coming up eventually), this season marked a monumental shift in how we utilize weather model data, with AI models, particularly Google’s Deep Mind Ensemble doing some incredible work in the Atlantic Basin. Years of research and investment in our understanding of hurricanes is paying off.

Upcoming week weather of note

Snowvember! Snow totals in parts of southeast Wisconsin, Illinois, and northwest Indiana/southwest Michigan were impressive over the last 24 hours.

Snow totals downwind of Lake Michigan offered up some impressive accumulation. (NOAA/NWS)

Our max total in this region was 14 inches near Walkerton, Indiana. 13 inches were reported in Heston and Pleasant Prairie, Wisconsin. Additional snow reports may be missing from this map as well.

In the Lake Superior snow belt, 18 inches fell just to the northwest of Marquette, Michigan and the Traverse City area also saw 6 to 10 inches of snow.

Some lake snow will continue today but the heaviest snow today will focus on West Virginia.

Snow will linger into the evening and overnight in parts of eastern West Virginia. (NWS Charleston)

Total snowfall may reach as much as a foot between Elkins and Beckley.

For the most part, this week’s weather will feature a slow warming trend nationally, We still have one more cold morning to come, and this one may set numerous record lows in the Southeast.

Forecast and near-forecast record lows in the Southeast on Tuesday morning. (NOAA WPC)

The West will be the focus of action this week with 1 to 3 inches of liquid equivalent and higher amounts in some higher elevations. Initial snow levels in the Sierra will be high, 8,500′, dropping to about 5,000 to 6,000 feet on Thursday evening and Friday. Snow levels may drop below 4,000 feet in the mountain passes of the Northwest as well.

Forecast precipitation this week. (Pivotal Weather)

This will be a generally moderate atmospheric river event for the West, with AR levels generally no higher than level 3. The focus should be on Oregon and northern California. Welcome rains will also occur down to SoCal as well. Overall, the ideal sort of Western storm pattern with a good bit of moisture but not too much of it.

European model forecast of maximum atmospheric river levels in the West over the next 7 days. (Center For Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E))

The Storm Prediction Center outlook is dormant this week for any severe weather nationally, so we’re in good shape overall right now.

Newsy bits

Today, we focus on the federal government’s sudden aversity to disaster aid.

Western Maryland: In a story that is playing out in various parts of the country, it seems evident that the federal government is pushing ahead with the abdication of their role in some disaster relief. A major flood in western Maryland that likely would have been a declared disaster in most previous administrations (including Trump v. 1.0) was denied that status this year, leaving vulnerable Appalachian communities in a lurch. (Baltimore Banner, Maryland Matters)

Alaska: An EPA grant of $20 million to help the village of Kipnuk, AK reduce erosion from storms was canceled in May as the Trump Administration finalized its review process of funding. While the work related to the grant would not have helped in October’s massive Alaska storm, it underscores the importance of these types of grants. The administration responded to requests for information on this matter derisively as they have done on several occasions. (Alaska Public Media)

North Carolina: The State of North Carolina is suing FEMA and Homeland Security because of $17.5 million in canceled grants. You will notice a pattern with these three stories here, and you don’t need me to tell you what it is. But suffice to say, it’s getting a little ridiculous. (Blue Ridge Public Radio)

California: It’s becoming realistic to think that if a devastating earthquake or another disaster impacts a place like California or Washington that disaster aid will be withheld for political reasons or come with prohibitive strings attached. Or so that’s the message emergency management professionals are trying to convey to people in California. (LAist)

First Arctic air of winter invades the East, with a stormy California on the horizon

In brief: Today we talk about the first dose of Arctic air this cold season, in addition to the chance of lake effect snow. We’ve also got a look at California which may shift quite a bit stormier later next week. Plus a lot of news to catch up on and the latest on NOAA/NWS challenges.

Big warm up, big cooldown

Autumn is going to autumn heading into the weekend. A big warm up is in store for the eastern half of the country ahead of a potent Arctic cold front. This will deliver a taste of early winter to much of the Eastern and Southern U.S. Houston, Austin, and San Antonio may threaten a record high temperature on both Friday and Saturday.

Temperatures over the next 5 days are going to go a little haywire, as is the case in autumn. (Tropical Tidbits)

But a cold front plowing east on Saturday and Sunday will eradicate this warm weather and replace with the first real dose of Arctic air of the season. Morning lows on Monday and especially Tuesday will threaten records, mainly in the Southeast.

Forecast or near forecast record lows on Tuesday morning in the Southeast. (NOAA WPC)

We will see frost and freeze make it all the way down close to I-10 to the east of Houston. Lows in the teens and 20s will be likely to the north from Tennessee into the Midwest. Chicago should be in the mid-20s on Monday morning, Minneapolis near 20, and Detroit mid-20s.

In addition, the first legitimate lake effect snow of the season looks likely behind this system. A few inches of accumulation could add up near the lakeshore in Michigan, parts of Indiana, and perhaps New York or Ohio. Not a major event right now, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. It’s that time of year.

(NWS Gaylord, MI)

Temperatures will warm up again next week.

West Coast storminess later next week

It’s a bit early to get into specifics, but it does appear that a significant shift south in moisture is going to occur next week in the West. This should allow for significant rain to impact California, as well as significant Sierra snow.

Wednesday’s 8 to 14 day hazards outlook. (NOAA CPC)

Again, it’s too early to get into details, but ensemble modeling seems to support up to an inch or so of moisture in SoCal and 1 to 3 inches in NorCal. Operational guidance, including European AI modeling suggests there is higher side risk to these totals as well.

7-day precipitation anomaly from European ensemble for days 7 to 13 ending Nov 18. (Tropical Tidbits)

Bottom line: It looks like a substantial wet storm or series of storms may impact much of California by later next week.

Newsy bits

Help me close my tabs by checking out some news from this week.

Derechos: Cool news out of Oklahoma where researchers are embarking on a project to catalog derecho events (hundreds of miles of damaging thunderstorm winds, many in the higher end of 75 to 100 mph) back to the 1950s. The idea is to try and understand what the correct environment for derecho development may be, which would help improve forecast accuracy. (University of Oklahoma)

Roanoke, Virginia: It’s been 40 years since a terrible flood struck Roanoke in 1985, causing $200 million in damage and killing 10 people. Massive flood mitigation efforts ensued, and it’s been successful, though there is still much work to do. I strongly encourage you also read Kevin Myatt’s flood synopsis of that event and how Hurricane Juan did and did not cause it.

Chattanooga, Tennessee: In Chattanooga, the Tennessee Department of Transportation is assessing how their infrastructure performed during floods in August that damaged 309 homes or businesses. The rain that fell was a 400 to 500 year event which blew past the design thresholds. We read about this a lot. We are getting better data through NOAA’s Atlas 15 project, but even that may become somewhat outdated as atmospheric moisture is increasing, leading to more frequent heavy rainfall events. (WTVC)

Sullivan’s Island, South Carolina: In Sullivan’s Island, a location that is seeing more frequent coastal flooding, the town produced a 154 page mitigation plan. It included policy recommendations. Despite the fact that it addresses an obvious problem, some residents are skeptical. It boils down to property rights and taxes due to the cost of mitigation. One councilmember chastised the community for not speaking up during one of the 15 sessions the town had to question the experts behind the plan. Democracy is messy and requires participation. People need to involve themselves in these discussions. (Charleston Post and Courier)

Kipnuk, Alaska: In Kipnuk, one of the villages severely impacted by Typhoon Halong’s remnants in October, a $20 million grant was earmarked by the EPA to help protect its infrastructure from flooding. A few months before the storm, the EPA informed Kipnuk that the “objectives of the award are no longer consistent with EPA funding priorities,” and they canceled the grant. While it may not have helped during Halong, it’s a reminder of how much mitigation work needs to be done across the country and why grant programs like this are critical to villages like Kipnuk. (Alaska Public Media)

Milwaukee, Wisconsin: In August, southeast Wisconsin was battered by some extreme, historic flooding. Now, FEMA and the Trump Administration are denying flood mitigation funding for public infrastructure. As U.S. Rep. Gwen Moore points out, and as I heard former FEMA Director Deanne Criswell talk about yesterday here in Houston, state and local governments can’t do these things alone. The tactic since this administration took office has been to rip the band aid off without a viable alternative in place or giving anyone a chance to prepare for what happens next. “Oh well” is not a solution. (Wisconsin Examiner)

NOAA issues

Speaking of… I don’t want to overdo this section, but as has been the case for the last several months, we continue to have reasons to be concerned about NOAA in the current administration.

Volunteer work?

First, whether you blame Republicans or Democrats for the government shutdown that is currently gridlocking the country, it does not matter. In Washington it’s a chess match. To most average Americans, no one really cares who is responsible, they just want a solution. Alan Gerard’s “Balanced Weather” had a great post late last week on the heroic work that the Hurricane Hunters performed during Hurricane Melissa. Not only are these people not getting paid at the moment, they were flying into Melissa, an already hazardous mission, with extra volunteers and smaller than normal crews. They may have made some of their most dangerous flights in modern times doing this too. Let’s just repeat that: Volunteers. Doing arguably the most hazardous job in all of meteorology. Why is this? Because of the shutdown. And I am sure the fact that the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA is operating at half-capacity thanks to probationary firings earlier this year ordered by DOGE and the many retirements that were encouraged is contributing to this as well. This also comes after the administration’s proposed budget, a list of their priorities, would have scaled back hurricane hunter flights into storms.

We owe them a strong debt of gratitude for the work they do, and yes flying into a storm that is bearing down on Jamaica is part of their job responsibilities. Why? Because America has always been the leader in this space. It’s part of what has made American global science leadership great. I’m not sure relying on retired volunteers is a great way to ensure that continues, however. This administration’s handling of NOAA runs counter to the greatness mantra they regularly espouse. Anyway, read Alan’s post on this topic.