Matt Lanza

Flooding continues to be this summer’s story, and more of it seems likely in Louisiana by late week

In brief: More flooding, this time in New Jersey in particular, as well as Florida. The next serious flooding event may unfold thanks to Invest 93L later this week in Louisiana.

Note: Most of the data in these posts originates from NOAA and NWS. Many of the taxpayer-funded forecasting tools described below come from NOAA-led research from research institutes that will have their funding eliminated in the current proposed 2026 budget. Access to these tools to inform and protect lives and property would not be possible without NOAA’s work and continuous research efforts.

Another round of flooding

First of all, if you think this year has been busy in terms of flooding, it has. Let’s just look at the Southeast as an example, since we’re going to focus a lot there today. So far, over 650 flash flood warnings have been issued in 2025 for the Southeastern U.S. If the year ended today, it would not be near last place for most flash flood warnings in a year.

Accumulated flash flood warnings by year (for the entire year) for the Southeast. (Iowa State Mesonet)

In the South-Central part of the country, it’s not a whole lot different. We’re well over 1,000 warnings on the year for flooding.

South-Central U.S. flash flood warnings by year. (Iowa State Mesonet)

2025 is off to a crazy start in terms of flooding around the country. (Editor’s note: I wrote this last night, but Michael Lowry has a very good synopsis on the flooding warnings in context here)

We saw more of it yesterday, this time in the New York City metro area and down in Florida.

In northern New Jersey, rainfall totals probably came close to 7 inches in spots right near the Watchung Ridge up in western Union and northeast Somerset Counties.

Radar estimated rainfall bullseye of 6 to 7 inches right over Plainfield, NJ yesterday. (NOAA NSSL)

This type of rain has about a 2 to 3 percent chance of occurring in any given year in this location. Numerous reports of flooding were received in parts of New Jersey, as well as in New York City, as rainfall rates of around 2 inches or more per hour overwhelmed drainage systems. Heavy rain also fell west in Pennsylvania, west of Scranton-Wilkes Barre, with about 1 to 2 percent probabilities of those totals occurring in any given year. A secondary area occurred near Lancaster, PA as well.

South into Florida, much of the state saw rain yesterday, but the Plant City and Lakeland areas were especially hard hit. Rain totals of as much as 6 to 10 inches occurred just southwest of Lakeland, with flooding reported there as well.

Rain in Florida was widespread, but very isolated pockets saw extremely high totals, such as in Plant City. (NOAA NSSL)

Just another day in this seemingly frenetic summer.

Tropical Disturbance: Invest 93L

There’s so much to talk about today in terms of all sorts of things, but we will focus first on the potential for a tropical system in the Gulf. Currently, Invest 93L is moving onto the Florida Peninsula. If we’re really being honest, it ain’t much to look at today.

Invest 93L is moving onto the Florida Peninsula this morning. (Weathernerds.org)

Once into the Gulf it will encounter both very warm sea-surface temperatures and slightly less wind shear. This will allow it to begin to get its bearings and make an effort to organize. Currently, the NHC is giving it about a 40 percent chance of development the next couple days as it moves west across the northern Gulf. Obviously, you see something in the northern Gulf, and it’s instinctive to get a little worked up. This will probably have limited time over water, and the proximity to land is likely going to work against it some. There’s also likely to be some drier air in play here. All this to say that it would seem that the ceiling on this system is fairly low in terms of intensity.

Tropical models are generally focused on Louisiana for the track of Invest 93L. (Tropical Tidbits)

In terms of the track, it is likely to work west across the Gulf generally toward Louisiana. A weaker, more disorganized system would probably work inland west of New Orleans. A stronger system, for whatever reason, may come ashore farther east. The next name on the storm list is Dexter.

But given the low ceiling, I think it’s important to focus on the rainfall risk here.

Rainfall risk on Gulf Coast

Gulf systems this time of year typically have characteristics that make them very sloppy, very lopsided, and very wet. In other words, they’re often a flooding threat. And this appears to be the case here as well.

The 7-day rainfall forecast for Louisiana and the Gulf Coast of Mississippi shows upwards of 4 to 8 inches of rain or more possible. (Pivotal Weather)

The current rain forecasts show upward of 4 to 8 inches of rain across much of Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. Heavy rain will also extend east into coastal Alabama and the Panhandle of Florida as well. In fact, there is already a moderate risk of flash flooding (3/4) for day 4 in Louisiana (Friday).

A moderate risk of flash flooding exists for Acadiana on Friday (NOAA WPC)

The focus of the flooding risk will be on Acadiana and the Atchafalaya Basin. This includes both Baton Rouge and Lafayette. It’s still a bit early to focus on high-end risks of how much rain could fall, but I would keep a very close eye on the forecast between Beaumont and Baton Rouge from the flooding and heavy rain risk point of view.

On the east side of 93L, a very warm and humid air mass will lead to hot and uncomfortable weather later this week up the East Coast. Numerous record warm low temperatures are at risk of being broken.

Numerous record warm lows are at risk on Thursday morning. (NOAA WPC)

We’ll have more tomorrow morning or later today if anything significant changes.

More flooding, this time in Iowa, as heavy rain risk shifts back to the Southern Plains

In brief: The Davenport, Iowa area dealt with some serious flooding last night. Today’s risk shifts back to Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. The tropics remain quiet, but Florida should see a fair bit of rain next week as a tropical disturbance emerges in the Gulf. And we’ve got some good articles to share on the complexities involved in the Texas flooding tragedy.

Davenport flooding

The latest in an absolute spate of flash flood emergencies occurred yesterday in Davenport, Iowa. This was caused by a line of slow-moving thunderstorms that dumped 2 to 4 inches on the Iowa side of the Quad Cities. This brought totals for the day up to about 5 inches in spots.

Radar rainfall estimates show a wide swath of 2 to 4 inches since Friday morning across the Iowa side of the Mississippi River near Davenport. (NOAA NSSL)

Numerous instances of cars submerged in water and even some structures flooding occurred with the storms. Precipitable water, or how much moisture is actually available in the atmosphere was rather high across the Midwest yesterday evening, as shown from the European model’s output yesterday.

Precipitable water, or PWATs were quite high across much of the Midwest yesterday, with a local maximum from the Thumb of Michigan back west to Iowa. (Pivotal Weather)

Officially, south of Davenport, the near upper air sounding in Lincoln, Illinois showed a PWAT of 1.77 inches, which is in the 90th percentile of days. For Davenport, those PWATS were probably closer to the 95th percentile. In other words, another day of some ultra rich moisture that the atmosphere tapped into and produced damaging flooding. Models did an ok job on this event, though the HRRR misplaced the bullseye too far northwest, whereas the HREF model was a little too aggressive and to the east.

For those keeping track, this was the 12th reported flash flood emergency this month across the country. Most obviously occurred in Texas, but there have also been emergencies reported in New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and in Iowa (and Illinois).

Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico flooding chances

Next, we focus back on Texas and the southern Plains. Another round of scattered storms may produce locally heavy rainfall today, including for Hill Country. The area is highlighted in a slight risk (2/4) of flooding rains today. This also includes much of Oklahoma and for the burn scars in New Mexico, including Ruidoso.

A slight risk (2/4) for flooding is in place for Hill Country, much of north-central Texas, and Oklahoma today. (NOAA WPC)

Anywhere from 1 to 3 inches is possible through today, with localized “lollipop” totals of 3 to 6 inches in any given location also possible. The focus of the highest chances of those higher totals occurring seems to be in Oklahoma and north of DFW Metroplex today. However, chances are not zero between Abilene, San Angelo, and areas west of Kerrville.

HREF model probability matched mean product, highlighting the Red River Valley for potentially higher rain totals today, as well as a couple pockets from I-10 west of Kerrville through San Angelo and Abilene. (NOAA SPC)

Hopefully in any of today’s cases, flooding will be of the sub-emergency sort. The Ruidoso area doesn’t stand out in the modeling today, but given the ultra-high sensitivity of soil there, it would not take much to trigger flash flooding.

Tropics

While the Atlantic is forecast to remain quiet over the next week, I would not be shocked to see a risk area drawn over the northeast Gulf at some point this weekend. Chances are probably 10 percent right now, if that, but there’s enough noise there to at least watch for the potential of a low-end system.

The 7-day rain forecast over the northeast Gulf Coast. (Pivotal Weather)

Rain totals of 2 to 5 inches are forecast for the Florida Peninsula and Panhandle coast, back into Mississippi and Alabama. Some localized flooding is possible, but obviously we’ll continue to keep tabs on the potential for anything more organized off the coast here.

More questions in the wake of Texas flooding

I don’t have a lot to write about here today, but I do want to point you to a couple notable articles this morning. To get a good perspective on what went wrong in Texas, the emergency management piece is absolutely critical to understand. Most people know emergency management exists. Many people don’t know what it does. Everyone, however, has an opinion of FEMA it seems.

First, read this excellent article about the warning timeline and the emergency management relationship and response from my colleague and friend Alan Gerard who writes the excellent Balanced Weather Substack.

Then, read his follow up piece here.

This stuff is complicated. It’s never a black and white issue, and the gray area is gigantic and broken into various shades of gray. But I feel like Alan’s posts there give you a good understanding of the interplay between emergency managers and the weather. Alan is a former NOAA/NWS employee who knows more than his share of how the two disciplines engage operationally.

Lastly, Chron.com in Houston published an excellent piece about the debate that occurred in Kerr County back in 2021. Monday morning quarterbacking is easy, but this raises serious, serious questions about what happens when you politicize to an extreme level certain elements of disaster and mitigation. It’s a cautionary tale that a number of vulnerable communities engaged in pre-2025. I’ve learned a lot about disasters as a meteorologist, and to me it makes absolutely no sense to reject federal money for disaster mitigation projects in a world where disasters are becoming more common. That money will go elsewhere instead. Hyper-politicization can literally harm communities. It’s time to start looking at this stuff more clear-eyed.

We will probably take tomorrow off and come back with a fresh post Monday. Thanks again to all our subscribers, new and old. It helps continue to propel us forward and upwards.

How much longer will the mostly quiet tropical Atlantic stay mostly quiet?

In brief: More flash flooding may occur today for parts of the Mid-Atlantic or New England, as well as back into much of Iowa. The tropics are quiet for now, but things may slowly tick up some by later this month, as we investigate below.

Note: Most of the data in these posts originates from NOAA and NWS. Many of the taxpayer-funded forecasting tools described below come from NOAA-led research from research institutes that will have their funding eliminated in the current proposed 2026 budget. Access to these tools to inform and protect lives and property would not be possible without NOAA’s work and continuous research efforts.

Wednesday flooding recap & Thursday forecast

A whole heck of a lot of severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings were issued yesterday. The Durham area saw quite a bunch of street flooding on Wednesday. Flooding required some water rescues in Chadds Ford, PA as well. Even in Houston, where we know flooding probably better than anywhere else in America, we had some questionable decisions.

I don’t want to demean anyone for choosing to make a rash decision, but it’s so, so important to not drive through roadways when you are not 100% certain of the depth. And even then, you probably shouldn’t do it. And these overpasses in Houston are often well-marked in terms of water depth.

Anyway, rain totals yesterday were on the order of 2 to 4 inches across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia, as well as up into Maryland and southeast Pennsylvania. Another round of potentially heavy storms will be possible today, this time even a little farther south and east.

Slight risks (2/4) of heavy rainfall exist today in the Carolinas and Virginia — again. There is also some potential up toward Boston and Providence. (NOAA WPC)

Isolated areas could see upwards of 3 or 4 inches of rain, but most areas will see a fair bit less.

The Midwest will also have the risk of some flooding today with slight risks from just west of Chicago into Iowa and the Plains.

A slight risk (2/4) exists from Wisconsin and Illinois back into most of Iowa and parts of eastern Nebraska today. (NWS WPC)

That slight risk area may see more of a widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain and locally higher amounts. More risks for heavy rain in the Midwest tomorrow.

Tropics

All is quiet for now. We continue to see some noise in the northeast Gulf or off the Southeast coast next week. But nothing has progressed any further along in the modeling to a point where there’s any additional concern. But we’ll keep watch.

Looking ahead

So, it seems like every day this post says “no tropical activity for the next 7 days.” I’m not sure anyone is complaining, but other than these 3 quick(ish) storms this season that have emerged on shorter notice, it has been pleasant thus far. This isn’t abnormal. In fact, by July 10th, we typically average roughly 1.5 storms. The second storm on average does not form until the 17th. Yes, we are three deep this season, but overall this season has behaved within the realm of normal.

To this point, the Atlantic has been filled with stable air, dust, and generally nothing of note. As we head toward later July, that pattern may ease up some, which may allow for slightly more favorable conditions for development — but I am not yet willing to say they will become truly “favorable.”

The background state in the Atlantic Basin is expected to become somewhat less hostile after the 20th, though not yet particularly favorable for development. (StormVista)

You can see from the annotated image above that there is a slight shift from sinking air broadly in the background of the tropical Atlantic to rising air, or at least less sinking. To get tropical systems, one ingredient would be some element of rising air in the background. It doesn’t always have to be that way, but it doesn’t hurt.

So will late July or early August be busy? History tells you that regardless of anything it should begin to get a little more active. That’s the “duh” answer. But if we look at the extended European model there is a bit of a tendency toward perhaps some chance at activity off the East Coast or in the middle of the deep Atlantic.

Euro weekly outlook for tropical system potential in the last full week of July shows some slight potential off the East Coast or out at sea. (ECMWF)

The probabilities are by no means high, but it’s not zero. But generally speaking, this is not an overly concerning look at this point. So we’ll see. Things can change quickly, but for now look for just a slight uptick in “noise” perhaps to close July.

Deadly flooding in New Mexico, street flooding in Chicago, and more flooding risks in the East today

In brief: Deadly flooding hit parts of New Mexico yesterday, while significant street flooding occurred in Chicago. Flooding risks should cover the Carolinas through New Jersey today, with a focus on Virginia perhaps. The tropics remain calm.

Note: Most of the data in these posts originates from NOAA and NWS. Many of the taxpayer-funded forecasting tools described below come from NOAA-led research from research institutes that will have their funding eliminated in the current proposed 2026 budget. Access to these tools to inform and protect lives and property would not be possible without NOAA’s work and continuous research efforts.

More flooding, more places

If you live in Ruidoso, New Mexico, you have been under a flash flooding warning over 25 times in the past year and nearly 10 times this year. Last June, the South Fork Fire devastated parts of that region, destroying nearly 1,500 structures. As is often the case after a wildfire, debris flows are serious issues. Basically, all that now loose ground becomes mud and debris and rushes down hills and mountains into rivers and imperils communities. In other words, it’s a looming disaster after a disaster. After the Thomas Fire in 2017-18 near Santa Barabra, CA, a debris flow in January in Montecito killed 23 people.

Ruidoso is situated in a location that tends to get summertime thunderstorms during the monsoon and just generally sits in a place where rising air and terrain effects can enhance precipitation. Ruidoso averages nearly 22 inches of precipitation annually, whereas Albuquerque averages less than 10 inches. Yesterday, rainfall of about 2 inches in an hour fell within Ruidoso, with radar estimating higher amounts just west of town.

Radar estimates of rainfall yesterday near Ruidoso, NM. (NOAA NSSL)

All that water pushed through the community. You can see just how quickly this happened. The water rapidly rose around 4 PM and by 8 PM, the river was basically back to normal. It happened essentially in a “flash.”

(USGS)

The river gauge at Hollywood, just downstream from the town of Ruidoso is what you’re looking at above. The river gauge observations are shown below.

River gauge on the Rio Ruidoso at Hollywood showing a rapid rise of 20 feet yesterday as flash flooding commenced downstream from the town. (NOAA)

That’s a 20 foot rise in minutes. I’m not going to embed any other video here out of respect for many of our Texas readers still grappling with our own disaster. But you can search Google News, Twitter, or BlueSky for “Ruidoso” and find numerous pictures and videos. The flooding killed three, including two children and caused widespread damage. It also appears that this is the new flood of record for this area.

Chicago flooding

A slow-moving thunderstorm with torrential rain sat over the urban core of Chicago last night dumping 2 to 5 inches in short order. Rates of nearly 2 inches per hour were recorded right near the West Loop, and some other gauges had even higher rates. Most impressively, over 5 inches of rain fell in 90 minutes near Garfield Park.

Radar rainfall estimates near Chicago yesterday. Rates of 5 inches in 90 minutes were reported near the West Loop and just east of Garfield Park. (NOAA NSSL)

Damage was mainly due to cars in flooded roads it appears, though water did come close to getting into some homes. No deaths have been reported as of this morning.

Both southeast New Mexico and Chicagoland were in marginal risks (1/4) of excessive rain and flooding yesterday.

More flooding to come?

Yes, more flooding is likely. Today’s focus will be in Virginia. Much of the southeast half of Virginia has seen 1 to 3 inches of rain in the last 3 days, with the places just east of the Danville area hit by 4 to 7 inches of rain due to Chantal’s remnants the other night.

A moderate risk (3/4) is posted for much of interior Virginia and extreme northern North Carolina for Wednesday. (NOAA WPC)

Much of Virginia, including Danville, Richmond, and Lynchburg are encased in a moderate risk (3/4) of excessive rainfall today. High-resolution weather modeling, such as that from the Storm Prediction Center’s HREF model do show the potential for 2 to 5 inches of rain today in pockets across Virginia, as well as perhaps into New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, or North Carolina.

The SPC’s HREF model and its probability matched mean product show the risk of as much as 4 or 5 inches of rain in isolated spots today from the Carolinas into Virginia and Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey. (NOAA SPC)

Since it seems the footprint definitely goes outside the moderate risk, folks in the slight risk areas will want to be on guard for some rapid onset street flooding today, from the Carolinas north to New Jersey. That HREF model has a thing for Baltimore today, so that may be an area to watch too. But the moderate risk area seems to have the highest probability and highest risks of seeing more widespread activity.

The risk of flooding continues into tomorrow, though the focus may shift into the Plains or Upper Midwest.

Tropics

Model support for something loosely organized continues next week in the northeast Gulf. But if we’re really being honest, there’s not a whole heck of a lot to zero in on at this point. It’s currently just a small signal among some white noise. No news is good news.