Matt Lanza

Beryl speeds up a little as it prepares to strengthen and come ashore southwest of Houston tonight

Headlines

  • Beryl’s track nudges just a little to the east.
  • Improving outcomes for Corpus Christi, but more gusty wind and rain for Houston.
  • Beryl starting to try to turn the corner intensity-wise this morning.
  • Isolated tornadoes and flash flooding a good possibility later today through Monday, improving Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Beryl (60 mph, NW 12 mph)

Beryl continues to struggle a bit this morning as it cycles through some of the dry air in managed to absorb yesterday. The core is now somewhat insulated from dry air, though it’s lopsided to the south and may still contain some residual dry air in there too. Over the next 6 hours, it will be key to see if Beryl can wrap some of these storms to the north side of the core. In that case, Beryl’s a-go for launch into landfall. If not, it will only modestly intensify further.

Beryl is making a new attempt at better organization, and this one may have some legs to it. (Weathernerds.org)

Beryl is still expected to come ashore as a category 1 hurricane tonight, but there is certainly risk that if this process accelerates it could achieve category 2 intensity. We expect, at best, a strong tropical storm, at worst a Cat 2 hurricane. It should be noted that hurricane-force winds will be primarily confined to a small area near and east of the center and likely drop off to tropical storm intensity as Beryl moves inland from the coast. Beryl will steadily weaken as it moves inland tomorrow and should be below tropical storm intensity by evening as it moves through east Texas. Tropical storm force winds are likely over a decent swath of Southeast Texas tomorrow, including the Houston area, strongest to the south and west of the city. Scattered to numerous power outages should be anticipated.

In terms of track, Beryl is mostly dialed in now, and it is likely to make landfall between Rockport/San Jose Island and Sargent, TX. Impacts will be skewed worst near landfall and to the east of where Beryl comes ashore. Hurricane Warnings are in effect from Baffin Bay through San Luis Pass. We can narrow this a bit further later today, but at this point, most of the impacts and track are in ink and changes to track should be primarily cosmetic.

For more details on specific impacts to the Houston metro area, please check Space City Weather.

Surge forecasts for this storm are mostly unchanged today. We continue with a general 3 to 6 foot above dry ground forecast, similar to Alberto’s impacts in most places, except near and a bit to the east of where the center comes ashore, which will be higher than Alberto.

(NOAA/NHC)

The good news with a faster storm is a generally lower ceiling on rain totals. However, this will have plentiful moisture, both with some precursor storms today and with the storm itself tomorrow. Rain totals are expected to generally be 5 to 10 inches.

Rain totals of 5 to 10 inches are likely along and to the right of the forecast track of Beryl as it goes north into Texas. Hill Country will unfortunately miss out on rain. (NOAA WPC)

Flood watches are in effect for much of this track in Texas. There is a moderate risk (level 3 of 4) of excessive rainfall and flooding posted for much of where that core of rain goes. Subtle track shifts may reorient exactly who sees the heaviest rain, an important aspect of the storm for the Houston metro. No serious rain impacts are expected on the I-35 corridor or in Louisiana.

Isolated severe weather and tornadoes are a good possibility both with the storms this afternoon in the Houston region and again with the storm itself tomorrow.

Severe weather risks are slight (level 2 of 5) for isolated tornadoes today and tomorrow in southeast Texas and up the Sabine River and western Louisiana to southwest Arkansas. (NOAA SPC)

The SPC has southeast Texas in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather today, expanding north tomorrow. Conditions should return to normal on Tuesday.

That’s it for now. We’ll update once more again this evening unless something drastic changes this afternoon.

Beryl’s not quite ready for a second wind but intensification is likely once more tomorrow leading up to Texas landfall

Headlines

  • Beryl on track for a middle Texas coast landfall on Monday.
  • Hurricane Warnings posted from Baffin Bay north through Sargent.
  • Flood Watches issued for much of coastal Texas and just inland.
  • Beryl did not organize much more today, but it continues to look likely to intensify again tomorrow, particularly in the last few hours leading up to landfall.
(NOAA/NHC)

Tropical Storm Beryl (60 mph, NW 13 mph)

As expected, despite the burst of storms within Beryl’s circulation today, it failed to translate to any real serious organization or strengthening, and for all intents and purposes Beryl is mostly status quo since this morning.

Beryl continues to try improving its environment but it has struggled to this point to generate results. That should change tomorrow. (Weathernerds.org)

This was expected for the most part, and we continue to expect that Beryl will improve its environment tomorrow leading to a period of slow then possibly rapid intensification up to landfall in Texas. We are likely looking at a landfall in the morning hours Monday. The current NHC forecast is in line with most model guidance, showing a middle to higher-end category 1 storm at landfall. That being said, a couple usually reliable models do show Beryl with potential to become a category 2 storm with 100 mph winds at landfall. Do not be lulled to sleep by the lack of intensification today. This was what had been anticipated.

Tropical models are in fairly good agreement on a landfall point now near Matagorda Bay, but some additional movement east or west of there is possible before we close in. (Tropical Tidbits)

Where will that landfall occur? Again, impacts will spread out from the storm, but for the strongest wind and surge, that landfall point is important. We have seen little movement in the modeling today with the bounds between about Sargent, TX through Corpus Christi Bay looking most likely to see the ultimate landfall of Beryl. I think the risk is probably skewed more to the right half of that spread, somewhere near Matagorda Bay. The risk drops east of there toward Galveston (albeit not quite zero) and west of Corpus Christi. Hurricane Warnings are posted from Baffin Bay through Sargent. I would again say that the risk is highest in the eastern half of that warning spread, but folks in Corpus Christi should continue to finalize any preparations they’ll be implementing.

Let’s talk a little more about some of the impacts from Beryl beyond wind.

Storm surge should peak in Matagorda Bay or just east of there around 4 to 6 feet above normally dry ground. (NOAA NHC)

Storm surge will be a serious concern in the Matagorda Bay region, and water levels of 4 to 6 feet above normally dry ground are expected. This will be at least a couple feet higher than experienced than last month in Alberto. From San Luis Pass through High Island, the storm surge will be similar to what was experienced during Alberto, and for Cameron Parish, LA it will be similar or lower than what was seen during Alberto. Heed the advice of local officials in terms of evacuation orders or other preparations at the coast. This storm is likely to come in stronger than Hurricane Nicholas in 2021, the most recent direct hit in this area.

Power outages are likely to be widespread in the Matagorda Bay region of Texas. Isolated to scattered power outages may impact the Coastal Bend or the coast up through Brazoria County, including Freeport, Lake Jackson, or Galveston. Additional isolated to scattered power outages may impact the greater Houston area’s south or west side, including heavily populated Fort Bend County depending on the exact track and speed of Beryl.

Rainfall is likely to be at least 4 to 6 inches in Houston, with higher amounts possible west of there, including College Station. (NOAA WPC)

Rainfall is another issue with Beryl. The good news is that Beryl will not stall or do weird loops over Houston and southeast Texas. The bad news is that Beryl will be moisture-laden and able to produce a period or a couple periods of torrential rainfall Monday. The current forecasts with Beryl’s track shows a narrow corridor of very hefty rain totals along and just east of the center. The exact track will determine who gets 4 to 6 inches of rain or who gets 8 inches of rain or more. For urban areas like Houston, this will be a critical threshold in terms of minor to moderate flash flooding versus something more serious. Current rain forecasts pinpoint Wharton through College Station up north to near Tyler and east of Dallas for the heaviest rainfall. Look for more on this tomorrow.

Isolated tornadoes are a possibility near and east of where Beryl arrives. (NOAA SPC)

As is the case with most landfalling tropical systems, isolated tornadoes will be a possibility on Sunday night or Monday as Beryl comes ashore. This would be primarily east of where the center comes ashore, including the Houston and Galveston areas, possibly as far east as Beaumont or Port Arthur. Expect several tornado warnings on Monday with a handful of possible tornadoes.

We will have the latest for you in the morning after we see what Beryl does tonight.

A very frazzled Beryl attempting to put itself back together on a path to Texas

Headlines

  • Beryl’s track forecast narrows a bit on the Texas coast; still expected to make land as a hurricane Monday.
  • Beryl trying to put itself back together, but has a ton of dry air to battle over the next 12 hours.
  • Flash flooding and isolated tornadoes likely across east Texas on Monday.
  • Hurricane preps should be in full swing between Corpus Christi and Galveston.

Tropical Storm Beryl (60 mph, WNW 12 mph)

After trekking a chunk of the Yucatan, Beryl devolved into a mess overnight with dry air wrapping into the storm on the south side. As of the last 2 to 3 hours, however, Beryl is beginning to effort reintensification over the Gulf of Mexico.

Satellite loop of Beryl shows deeper colors (yellows, reds, oranges) indicating thunderstorms blowing up near or just west of the center over the last few hours. (Weathernerds.org)

Although the rebuilding process is now underway, looks can be deceiving. If you look at water vapor imagery, just to check in on what type of air surrounds Beryl, it’s kind of ugly, indicating a lot more dry air for Beryl to have to shrug off. Intensification should be slow through today.

Beryl has a ton of dry air on its south side to cycle through. Any intensification will be slow today. (Weathernerds.org)

Since yesterday evening, modeling has tended to stop the rightward progress of the track adjustments, reassuring for Houston in a way, but we’re now sort of narrowing into a window between about Baffin Bay and just east of Matagorda Bay in Texas for ultimate landfall. Keep in mind that while the landfall point is important for elements of the storm, like surge and the strongest of the wind, the storms impacts will extend well out from the center, particularly as Beryl grows into a slightly larger storm spatially in the Gulf.

Both the tropical models and the 51 member European ensemble are focused on Corpus Christi through Matagorda Bay for landfall right now, though some additional adjustments are still possible (Weathernerds.org)

You can see the 51 member European ensemble above with a few members into Houston and the rest spread out south toward Matagorda and Corpus Christi. We are about 36 hours from landfall and because of the turn and angle of approach to the Texas coast, there is still a healthy spread here that will have impacts on who sees the worst of the surge, wind, etc. Basically, folks from Corpus Christi through Galveston should be preparing still for a hurricane impact.

Speaking of impacts, I will direct folks interested in the Houston area to our Space City Weather site where Eric has a good bit of detail on exactly that this morning.

For folks farther down the Texas coast, in Corpus Christi, it will be a close call. We still expect that despite slow intensification today, Beryl will try to make a last second run at it in the 6 hours or so leading up to landfall. This should push it over the edge to become a hurricane. If Beryl struggles more today, it may begin to deviate a little more to the left, putting a hit on Corpus back in play. Beryl’s intensity at landfall will almost be entirely contingent on how much it is able to accomplish in the final 6 to 10 hours or so leading up to that point. For now, expect a category 1 type storm, with risk of a category 2, though I will say some of this dry air may really help us here. But if you are preparing, do so for the worst possibility, which would be a cat 2 in this case.

Storm surge of 2 to 5 feet depending on where you are in Texas is likely as Beryl comes ashore. Risk is for a little lower south of Baffin Bay and a little higher north of there. (NOAA NHC)

Surge values of 2 to 5 feet are expected on the Texas coast. For many folks this will be about what we saw in Alberto last month. Nearer to the landfall point, this will be worse than Alberto. Again, it’s important to recognize that the impacts of the storm spread far from the center, but there are elements of the storm that do really depend on the exact landfall point.

The best news since yesterday in my opinion is that Beryl’s track through Texas, while slow is faster than it looked 48 hours ago. This places a bit of a ceiling on rain totals. However, there will likely be flash flooding concerns from Corpus Christi through College Station and over to Houston. The flash flood threat may extend all the way up into North Texas, mainly east of I-35 and east of Dallas. It may also extend farther west, closer to the eastern fringe of Hill County, Austin, and San Antonio as well. Folks inland across Texas will want to monitor this closely, particularly those in flood vulnerable areas.

The potential exists from 6 to 10 inches of rain or even a bit more in a corridor east of I-35 to about Houston and southeast of Dallas. (NOAA WPC)

For Texas, the worst of the weather will be later Sunday night into much of Monday, with a gradual improvement from southwest to northeast across the state on Tuesday. In addition to the rainfall, isolated tornadoes are likely Monday near and east of where the center of Beryl tracks.

We will have another update for you later this afternoon or evening with the latest track changes and impact updates on Beryl.

We will post a bit on Twitter/X today and look for a 90 second video update on Beryl on Instagram and TikTok in a bit.

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Beryl afternoon update: Forecast continues to be in flux for Texas as Beryl prepares to re-enter the Gulf of Mexico

Headlines

  • Hurricane Watch issued from Sargent, TX south to Barra el Mezquital, Mexico, along with a Storm Surge Watch for the Texas coast south of Sargent.
  • Beryl forecast tracks on models today have been bouncing all over the place between Houston and Brownsville.
  • Beryl now a tropical storm as expected.
  • Increasing chance of more meaningful impacts between Corpus Christi and Galveston.
  • Uncertainty remains high.
(NHC)

Tropical Storm Beryl (65 mph, WNW 15 mph)

As expected, Beryl transitioned back to a tropical storm today over the Yucatan, but that residence time over land is about to end, with Beryl re-emerging into the Gulf of Mexico tonight.

Beryl is readying to re-emerge over the Gulf of Mexico. (Tropical Tidbits)

Beryl will need a minute or two to get its bearings once back over water, so it should not immediately intensify. However, the scaffolding remains in place for Beryl to get itself together after 12 to 24 hours over water. From there, it becomes a race against time in terms of intensity. If Beryl struggles a bit in the next 12 to 24 hours, then we’re likely looking at a strong tropical storm or lower-end hurricane at landfall on the Texas coast. If Beryl buttons up quickly tonight and tomorrow, we could see some considerable intensification as it approaches the coast Sunday night and Monday morning. Observations will be critical tonight and tomorrow.

In terms of track, that’s not being helped at all by the intensity conundrum. With Beryl hanging tough throughout its entire life cycle, we have deviated more and more to the north with each run. It will be tempting when all is said and done to say that “Model X nailed Beryl,” but the reality is far more nuanced, and we can litigate that at a later time. Meanwhile, the trends are the trends, and they have been undeniably more to the north and east. How much farther can this go? I honestly don’t know. I would have expected it to stop right now. But we’ve gone from an ensemble mean landfall near northern Mexico yesterday to an ensemble mean landfall near Matagorda Bay on the Euro today. That’s an absolutely massive shift.

The 51 European ensemble members are focused more on the area between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay this afternoon, with a couple outliers as far northeast as Galveston Bay. (Weathernerds.org)

The 51 members above are actually in decent agreement right now with a relatively tight clustering. The problem is that the angle of approach to the Texas coast is such that even a 10-20 mile error can lead to a massive shift in where the storm comes ashore. This is most important for the surge aspect of things. The current surge forecast calls for 3 to 5 feet above ground level for the Texas coast. Expect this to get narrowed and changed a bit on Saturday.

Reasonable peak surge forecast, measured above ground level. (NHC)

Meanwhile, for folks along the Texas coast, you should be preparing for possible hurricane impacts from Galveston through South Padre Island. It is possible that South Padre can breathe easier later. But for folks in the rest of coastal Texas, it will be critical to monitor forecast changes in the next 12 to 24 hours. Begin making your preparations on the coast, and if you’re south of I-10 in the Houston area, it may be a good idea to prepare for the potential of power outages, something we’ve dealt with more than once this year. For folks from Matagorda Bay through Port Aransas, I would make serious preparations for a full-fledged hurricane impact, stronger than Nicholas in 2021 but not as intense as Harvey in 2017.

The rainfall story remains a tricky one, but Beryl’s forward speed once inland looked a little faster on modeling today which may help alleviate some of the flash flooding risk.

We will plan to update the top of this post this evening if any meaningful changes occur. Otherwise, our next full post will be Saturday morning.

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