Matt Lanza

Winter prepares to take a break, so we’ll talk about crawfish, recent research, and the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

One-sentence summary

Today’s post will discuss the return of mild weather, Louisiana crawfish, rain in California, some recent hurricane research, and some too early thoughts on the 2024 hurricane season.

Winter hiatus

After a week where we’ll see heavy rain in the south and wintry precipitation scattered across remnant cold air to the north, the bigger weather story may be what’s coming next week.

Significant expected rainfall is both welcome and concerning, as Flood Watches are posted from north of Houston into northern Alabama. (Pivotal Weather)

First, we have some flooding concerns in spots in the South to get through, although in some areas, like Texas and Louisiana and Mississippi, this rain is quite welcome. Some of those areas remain in extreme drought. While this is good news in general, it may be too late for crawfish season in Louisiana. Between high costs, the recent cold, and the long-term drought plaguing the region, it’s going to be a tough harvest this year. Mark Shirley of the LSU AgCenter shared thoughts on this season recently, and they were not positive. Not great news for those who bank on this season.

Rains should wind down later this week, setting up a drier week in the South next week. In terms of temperatures, where won’t it be cold for this time of year? Virtually everywhere.

If you like winter weather, the 8 to 14 day outlook is a tough one to look at. (NOAA)

The most recent 8 to 14 day outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center looks bleak for winter lovers. Weather model data strongly backs this up, and it appears that winter will go on hold for a time as we close January and open February. Though this map stops at the border, it’s expected that warm air is going to flood most of Canada as well, particularly central Canada. The Maritimes and West Coast will be much more moderate than this.

If there is some good news, it comes in California and the West, which is expected to see above average precipitation continuing into next week as well.

California looks to be targeted by a pretty wet stretch of weather next week. This should hopefully also help the snowpack some in the Rockies. (NOAA)

The combination of warm temperatures and wet weather is not always the greatest duo to see out West in winter, but hopefully this can at least continue the snow building process in the higher terrain. Whatever the case, there is high confidence in a fairly wet pattern in that region.

Recent hurricane research: More storms with more rainfall

Shifting gears now, as we advertise ourselves as primarily a hurricane-focused site! I wanted to highlight a couple batches of recent hurricane research that came out in late 2023. Last June, we published an article that summarized a bunch of research on the Gulf of Mexico and rapid intensification. We want to try to continue to keep you informed on general interest research on the tropics, particularly as it relates to the Atlantic Basin and North America.

A preprint being reviewed for publication in Nature Portfolio authored by a group from both the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory was posted in early November discussing climate change, flooding, and social inequality from Hurricane Ida back in 2021. The general gist of the paper is like this: We know that climate change will tend to exacerbate social inequality. Disasters tend to hit more vulnerable populations both worse and more often. The paper finds that the climate change impact on flooding is non-linear, which is to say that as the planet warms, flooding should worsen at a faster rate. So as social vulnerability increases, the risk of suffering from deep flooding also increases. “In other words, for deep flood exposure, both past and future warming increase social inequality in the direction that exacerbates relative flood risk for more vulnerable people.”

The study essentially confirms that the flood impacts from Ida’s remnants were worsened by increasing precipitation due to climate change and the most vulnerable segment of the population saw a worse outcome than they otherwise would have because of this. You can see the paper to learn more about their methods and some of the specific numbers they used, which are in line with prior studies done after Hurricane Harvey. While the rainfall element of hurricanes has always been a bad one, we’ve seen several recent examples where it seems as though it’s getting worse, and research in recent years continues to basically confirm that feeling.

Another interesting paper published in November in the European Geophysical Union’s Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics touches on how aerosols from anthropogenic (human) sources impact the destructiveness of hurricanes. What stood out about this article was their finding that an increasing concentration of aerosols near the immediate coast (say, as storms approach the petrochemical complexes of the Gulf Coast) can lead to a weaker but larger storm with an 11 to 22 percent increase in precipitation within 100km of the center. The study used Hurricane Katrina as a model storm, and they worked to utilize very sophisticated modeling to solve for this.

“For the first time, a 3-D atmosphere–ocean fully coupled regional model (WRF–ROMS) at the cloud-resolving scale was used to simulate Hurricane Katrina in order to investigate the aerosol–TC system with the inclusion of air–sea interaction,” the authors write.

What I think our readers should take away from this research is that it adds to the growing body of evidence that suggests hurricanes are becoming more moisture-laden as they approach land, which is resulting in more rain, more flooding, more damage, and more impacts to more people.

2024 hurricane season early vibes check

There have been some items published in recent weeks about the upcoming hurricane season. I’ve seen everything from people expecting an active season to a very active season to the “hurricane season from hell.” Hyperbole aside, what does the very early data actually show about the hurricane season that begins in just over 4 months?

The first question we’d ask is whether El Niño will continue into this summer. The answer to that question is still an uncertain one. Modeling is aggressively weakening the El Niño event by late spring, as is often typically the case with strong events like this one. The European model below, for example, has us close to “ENSO Neutral,” or “La Nada” by mid-summer, with extrapolation pushing us toward weak La Niña perhaps by the peak of hurricane season.

The ECMWF long range forecast suggests an aggressive weakening of El Niño this summer, but still some question as to whether or not we end up in La Niña. (ECMWF)

Why does this matter? La Niña events are much more favorable for active hurricane seasons than El Niño events. So if we were to hypothetically tip back into La Niña this summer, it would likely aid an active hurricane season.

Historically, since 1950 in hurricane seasons immediately following a higher-end El Niño, we average 6 hurricanes (with as many as 10 in 1998). A normal hurricane season has about 7 hurricanes, so one could argue that the season proceeding after stronger El Niños may not necessarily skew dramatically higher. From that end, I don’t know that we can currently read too much into El Niño vs. La Niña chances this summer and how they may influence the season.

That being said, one thing we can absolutely read into are sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The globe’s oceans are undergoing a heat wave of sorts. In fact, water temperatures in the main development region of the Atlantic basin are currently in line with what you would normally expect to see in July. That’s not a typo.

So I do not think it’s a stretch to say that we would expect SSTs to be warmer, if not much warmer than normal again this summer across much of the Atlantic basin. A look at one model in particular, the NMME, which is an ensemble of several different climate models shows an extremely warm look to the Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic this summer.

The NMME model forecast for SSTs this summer is ugly looking in the Atlantic with warm water everywhere again. (NOAA)

Now, what I might caution about here is that the NMME also has a dramatic La Niña signature in the Pacific that might be a little (or a lot) overdone. Just because these maps are scary looking does not mean that they will verify as shown. But, there’s more than enough evidence right now to suggest that SSTs will skew warm this hurricane season.

So sitting here on January 23rd, I would be willing to say this right now: The combination of warm water and a weakening El Niño probably suggests an active hurricane season ahead in 2024, but there is a very long way to go yet. No reason to worry about the sky falling right now, but I would not be surprised to see some fairly aggressive seasonal forecasts in the months ahead.

The next storm up brings more of the same across the country, while we eye some serious cold heading into next week

One-sentence summary

An active stretch of weather continues with a major storm developing today and tomorrow, followed by a serious blast of Arctic air across much of the country next week and the potential for an East Coast storm.

The next storm up: More flooding, more Midwest snow, more strong wind

The next storm in our parade is gathering in the Rockies today. This one will track south into the Texas Panhandle and then hook back northeast across the mid-Mississippi Valley into Michigan, Ontario and Quebec into the weekend. At its peak, this storm will likely test some January low pressure records in the Midwest, including in places that just set them earlier this week.

So, yes, it’s active.

There will be some tweaks compared to the storm earlier this week, but in general, the story is similar in some ways. Let’s run through the impacts.

Heavy rain & flooding: The Northeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic will again be ground zero for flooding risks from this storm. Another inch and change of rain is expected here into portions of Atlantic Canada, on top of saturated ground and ongoing flooding in spots. While these totals are lower than the previous storm this week, the ground is more saturated now than it was then, so less rain can cause issues.

While rain totals don’t look quite as high as we saw with the storm earlier this week, another inch or so across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England will further stress already stressed and saturated grounds. (Pivotal Weather)

The Weather Prediction Center has the area outlined for the upper end of a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall, close to a moderate risk.

A slight risk of excessive rainfall (level 2/4) is up from near Harrisburg, PA through southern New England on Friday (Pivotal Weather)

Flood Watches are already posted in parts of southern New England.

Severe weather: Another round of severe storms is likely from northeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley later today, and an enhanced (level 3/5) risk is in place for parts of Arkansas and extreme northeast Texas, and northwest Louisiana.

An enhanced (level 3/5) risk of severe storms is in place for later today south of Little Rock through Shreveport. (NOAA SPC)

That will expand into the Southeast on Friday, where another enhanced risk is already established from Alabama through the Carolinas. This map may be updated after publication.

An enhanced risk of severe storms is also in place for Friday across parts of the Southeast, with strong winds and tornadoes possible. This map may be updated after publication. (NOAA SPC)

Tornadoes and damaging winds will be a possibility in these areas on Friday.

Heavy snow: The storm earlier this week brought heavy snow in a corridor from Kansas through Nebraska, northern Missouri, Iowa, northwest Illinois and southern Wisconsin into Michigan. Tomorrow’s storm will bring the heaviest snow from Nebraska into Iowa, Wisconsin, northern Illinois (including Chicago), and Michigan into Ontario.

Snow totals for this storm will peak from Iowa (again) through Wisconsin and Michigan. Chicago may see more snow with storm than the prior one. (Pivotal Weather)

An additional area of heavy snow will be possible in Upstate New York and interior New England, particularly in the mountains. That will extend into Canada with heavy snow across Quebec (outside of Montreal) and in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Snow totals in the Northeast will be highest in portions of the White Mountains and possibly the Adirondacks in New York, as well as in Quebec and parts of Newfoundland. (Weathernerds.org)

More travel headaches are expected in those areas.

Meanwhile, as that storm exits east, another storm, the one that will really help drag in the Arctic blast for early next week, will dump snow in the Western U.S.

Snowfall through Sunday morning in the Western U.S. will be ample in spots. (Weather Bell)

We’ve been in a bit of a snow drought nationally this winter, so this is helping to make up some ground.

Strong winds: In addition to the heavy rain and flooding, heavy snow, and severe weather, widespread strong winds will once again tax trees and power lines across the country. A huge chunk of the nation will see 35 to 50 mph wind gusts in the coming days, with the worst coming in parts of the Rockies, Texas, Appalachia, the Great Lakes, and on the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts into Atlantic Canada.

A large swath of the country will be seeing wind gusts in excess of 35 mph (green) and 45 mph (gold/yellow), with the strongest winds impacting parts of the Rockies and Texas, the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, Great Lakes, and East Coast. (Weather Bell)

This has been a pretty remarkable week for wind across the Lower 48. I know we have a subset of readership in portions of Atlantic Canada, so I just want to note the wind gusts there as well. They may not be as strong as explicitly shown on the map below (especially east of Nova Scotia), but I just want to highlight that the wind doesn’t magically stop in Maine.

Strong wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph (65-95 km/hr) are likely in parts of Atlantic Canada with this next storm as well. (Weather Bell)

Really an impressive stretch lately.

Arctic blast next week impacts much of the country

As alluded to above, the cold coming next week looks impressive. Nationally, it may be the coldest outbreak since just before Christmas in 2022. Numerous locations are already forecast to reach record lows on Monday and Tuesday next week.

Locations currently forecast near record lows on Tuesday morning (NOAA)

This won’t be as long lasting or potent as what was seen in February 2021 in Texas, but it marks yet another in a series of winters with some sort of cold air shenanigans in that part of the world. The core of the coldest air relative to normal will likely pass over the northern Rockies Sunday and Monday, the central Plains and Mid-Continent Monday and Tuesday, and into the Ohio Valley and Southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.

For folks in Texas, this will be a prepare for impacts type of cold: Protect plants, pipes, pets, and people. The shorter duration of this event compared to February 2021 should hopefully take some of the more catastrophic problems off the table (like grid failure), but cold of this magnitude in this part of the world can always spring surprises on folks. So please take it seriously and prepare accordingly.

A second push of cold may arrive again next weekend, but that’s TBD at this point.

East Coast storm chances next week?

The rumor mill is cranking on the potential for an East Coast winter storm next week. As the Arctic air slides east, a secondary storm is expected to develop in the Southeast and track off the East Coast. Exactly where it tracks will determine what, if anything is seen in parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, or Northeast. We’re still a good 5 to 6 days or so away from this, so there’s plenty of uncertainty.

Let’s look quickly at the Euro ensemble “spread” in options for this storm. The IQR values for sea-level pressure shown on the map below from Tomer Burg are high, which tells us that there is considerable spread within model guidance for potential outcomes. The European ensemble runs the European model 51 different times with different tweaks each time. When you see this sort of variability within the ensemble, it lends to lower confidence in the forecast track of the storm. Obviously that will have huge implications on what sort of precip falls and where.

A map showing the European ensemble’s interquartile range for next Wednesday morning suggests a very, very high amount of uncertainty regarding placement and intensity of low pressure off the East Coast. It’s far too soon to say which areas will be likely to see snow, rain, or something in between. (Tomer Burg)

So it’s much too soon to say with any confidence who will see snow and how much next week. Suffice to say, however, there is a storm system likely that will cause impacts on the East Coast, continuing our active weather pattern. Milder weather may be on the horizon for later in January.

Updated look at what to expect into Tuesday with the major Eastern U.S. winter storm

One sentence summary

This evening’s post offers an update on what to expect with a major Eastern U.S. storm into Tuesday, as well as some comments on more storms to come.

Major Eastern U.S. storm hitting through Tuesday

Back on Saturday we talked about the flooding risk specific to New Jersey due to snowmelt, saturated ground, and 2-3 inches of additional rain tomorrow. That risk has been refined today to include eastern Pennsylvania, DC, Maryland, northern Virginia, and portions of southern New York and Connecticut.

A moderate risk (level 3/4) for excessive rainfall and flooding is posted for Tuesday in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. (NOAA)

Total rainfall will be on the order of 1 to 3 inches in this region, which is plenty of water to produce flash and river flooding. Flood Watches are up from southern New England into Virginia, and tomorrow should be a very active day.

Rainfall tomorrow will be on the order of 1 to 3 inches over a broad area from the Southeast into New England, with the greatest flooding risk from Virginia into southern New England. (Pivotal Weather)

There are a ton of other elements to this storm. Let’s walk through them.

Severe weather: Tonight looks to be a very active severe weather night in the Deep South and along the Gulf Coast east of Texas. An enhanced risk is in effect for this region (level 3/5), and tornadoes are a distinct possibility. That severe risk will continue into the southeast tomorrow with an enhanced risk from north Florida into southern Georgia, and eastern South & North Carolina.

An overview of the severe weather expected tonight into Tuesday across the South. (NOAA SPC)

Again, strong winds and tornadoes are possible in these areas.

Wind gusts: Widespread wind gusts in excess of 40-50 mph are possible, if not likely across the Plains, Midwest, Southeast, and East tonight into tomorrow. Coastal New England, Long Island, and the Mid-Atlantic could see 60+ mph winds. This will be an exceptionally potent and widespread wind storm across the eastern half of the country, and there will likely be numerous power outages.

The NWS forecast for wind gusts shows 50 mph or stronger for parts of the Gulf Coast and South, as well as up the East Coast into coastal New England and in Upstate New York. This type of wind will cause numerous scattered power outages in parts of the Eastern U.S., so prepare for some disruption on Tuesday. (Weather Bell)

Snow: A major snowstorm will occur on the northwest flank on this storm, with anywhere from 6 to 12 inches or even more across northern Missouri, Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin.

Heavy snow will fall in the Midwest, with Iowa, extreme northern Missouri, and parts of Wisconsin seeing the heaviest snow. Slightly less snow will fall south and east of there for Chicago and Detroit. (Pivotal Weather)

The combination of snow and wind will produce blizzard conditions from northeast New Mexico into Kansas, with near-blizzard conditions at times northeast of there.

The NWS Winter Storm Severity Index shows major impacts from northern Missouri into Wisconsin, as well as moderate impacts for some areas from New Mexico into Maine.

But wait, there’s more!

At least two more major storms are queued up in the pipeline. The next one will take a track similar to slightly farther east than the current storm. Expect more wind, more snow, more flooding rain, and more severe weather risk on Friday into Saturday.

The European model forecasting a parade of winter storms across the Midwest and Eastern U.S. over the next 10 days.

The subsequent storm will arrive Monday or Tuesday next week, and this one may take a farther east track, meaning we’ll watch for snow chances to creep eastward. But it could also produce more flooding and more wind in the East. Additional total liquid of 2 to 4 inchers more is almost certainly going to exacerbate flooding concerns in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. More to come on these.

After weekend snow in the Northeast, a significant developing flooding risk focused on New Jersey for Tuesday

One sentence summary

Today’s post offers a quick summary of this weekend’s Northeast storm and focuses on a significant flooding risk with Tuesday’s storm focused on New Jersey.

Weekend winter storm: A wind-whipped pop of snow in the interior Northeast

Rain, snow, and wind will move into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today with the much discussed weekend winter storm.

Snow totals are expected to be highest in New England and eastern New York. Click to enlarge. (Pivotal Weather)

In terms of snow, look for anywhere from 6 to 12 inches in Central Pennsylvania (mainly north and west of Harrisburg) into the Poconos and northwest New Jersey. About 8 to 12 inches is expected for Central New York into the Capital Region and Hudson Valley. Higher amounts are possible in the Hudson Valley and likely in the Catskills, where as much as 18 inches may fall in spots. Most of northern Connecticut into Massachusetts, southern Vermont, and southern New Hampshire should see 6 to 12 inches. Higher amounts up to 18 inches are possible in southeast New Hampshire, extreme southern Maine, and portions of interior eastern Massachusetts.

For the major I-95 cities, Boston should see 6 to 8 inches, Providence 4 to 6 inches, New York City 1 to 2 inches or less, and Philly through DC less than an inch.

In addition to snow, ice is going to be an issue for portions of western Virginia and portions of West Virginia.

Some mostly minor icing will impact travel today in portions of West Virginia and Virginia, with some dicey travel on I-81 possible. (NWS Blacksburg)

Though we don’t foresee major icing, any ice can impact travel, so the I-81 corridor probably should be avoided today.

Gusty winds will also impact the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today, with 40 mph or stronger gusts possible on the coast.

Coastal areas may see wind gusts in excess of 40 mph, while inland areas will see 25 to 35 mph gusts in spots leading to some blowing snow. (Pivotal Weather)

Last but not least, a slight risk of severe storms is in place in southwest Florida from Sarasota through Naples this morning.

Next Tuesday’s storm: Focus on New Jersey flooding risks

The second storm continues to come into focus some more. We’ve got numerous issues to face with this one, particularly gusty wind over a wide swath of the Eastern U.S., heavy snow from the Central Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes, and the potential for flooding rains in parts of the East, with northern New Jersey being of particular concern.

We will talk more about the snow and wind later today or tomorrow, but I want to focus on the flooding risk in New Jersey right now, partially because it’s of concern, but also because I’m from New Jersey. The Weather Prediction Center already has the northwest part of the state in a Moderate risk for excessive rainfall and flooding, which is their highest category 4 days out.

A moderate risk (level 3 of 3 this far out) is already in place for Northern New Jersey for Tuesday. The combination of melting snow and additional heavy rain will likely lead to widespread flooding. (NOAA WPC)

We talk about snow totals during winter storms a lot, but we don’t always talk about how much moisture is actually contained within the snowpack, or what we typically call the snow water equivalent. If you melted the snow, how much water would you get? Between the rain and snowfall this weekend, much of New Jersey will see an inch or a bit more of liquid equivalent. This comes on the heels of the last 30 days which has seen anywhere from 150 to 300 percent of normal precipitation in New Jersey. It’s been wet, now we’re adding more water, as well as some snow which is likely going to melt as next week’s storm hits. Basically, you have the recipe for significant river flooding in much of the northern half of the state.

Significant river flooding is likely in much of central and northern New Jersey, as well as in portions of southeast Pennsylvania. (NOAA MARFC)

How much rain are we expecting? Between now and through Tuesday’s storm, portions of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and southern New York could see in excess of 4 inches of total water.

Anywhere from 3 to 4 inches of snow and rain with higher amounts locally will fall in total with this weekend’s storm and Tuesday’s storm, leading to a significant flooding risk in New Jersey and perhaps portions of Pennsylvania or southern New York. (Pivotal Weather)

One of the problems that highlights why New Jersey is especially vulnerable is that you will be seeing 1 inch of liquid basically already sitting on the ground with another 2 to 3 inches falling from the sky between the snowmelt and rain. This is going to send a lot of water quickly into the system, and again, that’s a recipe for flooding.

So, while the talk with this upcoming Tuesday storm is likely going to focus a lot on snow and wind and broadly heavy rain and cold to follow, folks in northern New Jersey in particular need to follow this forecast closely due to the very acute flooding risk.

Another storm is possible next weekend which could further exacerbate problems. But we’ll take this one at a time.