Hurricane Watch issued from Sargent, TX south to Barra el Mezquital, Mexico, along with a Storm Surge Watch for the Texas coast south of Sargent.
Beryl forecast tracks on models today have been bouncing all over the place between Houston and Brownsville.
Beryl now a tropical storm as expected.
Increasing chance of more meaningful impacts between Corpus Christi and Galveston.
Uncertainty remains high.
(NHC)
Tropical Storm Beryl (65 mph, WNW 15 mph)
As expected, Beryl transitioned back to a tropical storm today over the Yucatan, but that residence time over land is about to end, with Beryl re-emerging into the Gulf of Mexico tonight.
Beryl is readying to re-emerge over the Gulf of Mexico. (Tropical Tidbits)
Beryl will need a minute or two to get its bearings once back over water, so it should not immediately intensify. However, the scaffolding remains in place for Beryl to get itself together after 12 to 24 hours over water. From there, it becomes a race against time in terms of intensity. If Beryl struggles a bit in the next 12 to 24 hours, then we’re likely looking at a strong tropical storm or lower-end hurricane at landfall on the Texas coast. If Beryl buttons up quickly tonight and tomorrow, we could see some considerable intensification as it approaches the coast Sunday night and Monday morning. Observations will be critical tonight and tomorrow.
In terms of track, that’s not being helped at all by the intensity conundrum. With Beryl hanging tough throughout its entire life cycle, we have deviated more and more to the north with each run. It will be tempting when all is said and done to say that “Model X nailed Beryl,” but the reality is far more nuanced, and we can litigate that at a later time. Meanwhile, the trends are the trends, and they have been undeniably more to the north and east. How much farther can this go? I honestly don’t know. I would have expected it to stop right now. But we’ve gone from an ensemble mean landfall near northern Mexico yesterday to an ensemble mean landfall near Matagorda Bay on the Euro today. That’s an absolutely massive shift.
The 51 European ensemble members are focused more on the area between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay this afternoon, with a couple outliers as far northeast as Galveston Bay. (Weathernerds.org)
The 51 members above are actually in decent agreement right now with a relatively tight clustering. The problem is that the angle of approach to the Texas coast is such that even a 10-20 mile error can lead to a massive shift in where the storm comes ashore. This is most important for the surge aspect of things. The current surge forecast calls for 3 to 5 feet above ground level for the Texas coast. Expect this to get narrowed and changed a bit on Saturday.
Meanwhile, for folks along the Texas coast, you should be preparing for possible hurricane impacts from Galveston through South Padre Island. It is possible that South Padre can breathe easier later. But for folks in the rest of coastal Texas, it will be critical to monitor forecast changes in the next 12 to 24 hours. Begin making your preparations on the coast, and if you’re south of I-10 in the Houston area, it may be a good idea to prepare for the potential of power outages, something we’ve dealt with more than once this year. For folks from Matagorda Bay through Port Aransas, I would make serious preparations for a full-fledged hurricane impact, stronger than Nicholas in 2021 but not as intense as Harvey in 2017.
The rainfall story remains a tricky one, but Beryl’s forward speed once inland looked a little faster on modeling today which may help alleviate some of the flash flooding risk.
We will plan to update the top of this post this evening if any meaningful changes occur. Otherwise, our next full post will be Saturday morning.
Don’t forget, we are probably on your favorite social network as well.
Beryl will weaken as it moves across the Yucatan today, emerging as a tropical storm tonight in the Gulf.
Beryl will steadily re-intensify as it comes west across the Gulf.
Forecasts have shifted north since yesterday and a landfall as a hurricane on the Texas coast north of South Padre Island is likely Sunday night or Monday, with risks as far north as Matagorda Bay.
Impacts will include wind, surge, heavy rain and flooding, as well as isolated tornadoes, especially near and north of exactly where Beryl makes landfall.
Preparations should be in full swing on the Lower & Middle Texas Coasts. Matagorda Bay should keep a close eye on this. Coastal residents in Houston/Galveston should prepare for tidal flooding again.
We’ll have another post later today.
(NOAA NHC)
Hurricane Beryl (< 100 mph, WNW 15 mph)
Beryl made landfall this morning on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico just northeast of Tulum. It is now inland over the Yucatan and has lost its primary fuel for intensification, the warm Caribbean. Beryl will steadily weaken over land today and is expected to come off the Yucatan as a tropical storm tonight.
Beryl is maintaining its core while weakening over the Yucatan. (Tropical Tidbits)
Despite weakening to a tropical storm, it is likely that Beryl will not be starting from scratch once in the Gulf. Its core should remain fairly in tact, and it will not take much to allow it to begin to feel the warm Gulf waters again and begin re-intensifying as it comes west northwest.
Beryl’s future track
Beryl is going to be walking an absolute tightrope over the next 2 days. I say that for residents of Texas, because as Beryl turns, exactly where that turn occurs will have an outsized impact on who sees exactly what. For now, I think the key player is this trough over the Plains. Over the last 48 hours, models have tended to further strengthen the trough. That coupled with a slightly farther north track of Beryl has led to Beryl being able to “feel” the tug of this trough more, which is forcing Beryl to come a little more to the north when it gets into the western Gulf of Mexico.
48 hour change map of 500 mb heights (20,000 feet up) shows a stronger Plains trough since Wednesday, which is likely aiding in a farther north track of Beryl as it approaches the Texas coast. (StormVista Weather Models)
So what exactly does this mean for Beryl’s forecast track? When you look at the 51 member European ensemble now, you can see that the majority of the members are turning Beryl northwest or even north northwest into Texas.
Beryl’s forecast landfall appears to be narrowing to a corridor between Matagorda Bay and Port Mansfield, TX north of the Rio Grande Valley. (Weathernerds.org)
The problem is two-fold. First, where exactly does that turn to the north northwest occur? That will determine the landfall point on the Texas coast. Secondly, that landfall point will have tremendous impact on who sees what. A landfall in Matagorda Bay means the southwest suburbs of Houston could experience a full fledged tropical storm type outcome, whereas Corpus Christi would be pretty much fine. A landfall in Baffin Bay south of Corpus would likely deliver hurricane impacts to Corpus Christi and few impacts to Houston beyond thunderstorms and rain. Storms approaching at an angle, rather than more perpendicular to the coast provide a world of problems from communicating impacts. Literally a 15 mile change in the angle of approach can add or remove entire counties from certain expected impacts. My hope is that we’ll get some additional color on this by afternoon, and we will have another update this evening with the information.
How strong will Beryl get?
Beryl’s intensity will be contingent, somewhat, on what it looks like coming off the Yucatan. Assuming some organization still, as well as tropical storm status should allow it to begin to quickly re-intensify. The waters of the Gulf, or the oceanic heat content available to Beryl is not inconsequential, but it’s also not the Caribbean rocket fuel that it had on the other side of the Yucatan.
Ocean heat content in the southwest Gulf is meaningful, but less intense than what Beryl experienced in the Caribbean. (NOAA)
Still, this argues for steady intensification as Beryl comes toward the Gulf. Water temperatures immediately adjacent to the Texas coast are quite warm, so Beryl will not weaken on approach and should make landfall as a strengthening storm. Most modeling keeps Beryl as a tropical storm or a low-end hurricane as it comes ashore. The NHC forecast is slightly more aggressive than this, which is a stance I wholeheartedly agree with. I would plan for a borderline category 2 storm at landfall and hope for the best. The radius of hurricane force winds is currently only 30 miles out from the center, so Beryl is a relatively small storm. Do not focus on the intensity of Beryl other than if you live along the immediate coast, as this will likely deliver tropical storm wind impacts to most. However, widespread tropical storm winds and localized hurricane winds will still cause power outages and damage and should be respected.
In addition, while we don’t currently have a storm surge forecast, it is safe to assume that Beryl will deliver a surge and coastal flooding between Corpus Christi and Cameron Parish, LA. We will have more details on this to come, but expect something similar to Alberto’s impact last month, with pockets of worse conditions near and to the north of where the center comes ashore.
Beryl also a heavy rain and flooding concern
In addition to the hurricane impacts we normally see, Beryl will be a heavy rain producer for Texas. The current rainfall forecast is calling for locally 6 to 8 inches of rainfall, but I fully anticipate that this forecast will be upgraded some before all is said and done. Double digit rainfall totals are likely in a few spots with the most persistent rainfall and localized flash flooding is going to be a concern.
The current NOAA rainfall forecast for Beryl maxes out around 6 to 8 inches in South Texas, but this is likely to increase and shift around some. (NOAA WPC)
Beryl will not stall, so I want to make clear for folks in Texas that this is not a Harvey redux. However, Beryl will move slowly once ashore. Even relatively more progressive and faster models like the GFS dump up to 10 inches in spots. So the heavy rain concern is there. Expect more color on this later today as well.
The bottom line?
For folks in the Rio Grande Valley: If you live in a flood prone area, keep an eye on the rainfall forecast for Beryl. Wind impacts will likely be confined to Brownsville and the coast.
For folks on the Lower and Middle Texas Coast and Coastal Bend region, including Corpus Christi: Prepare as if a hurricane is coming and make sure to follow local officials guidance in terms of evacuation if needed.
For folks in the Matagorda Bay area: Start making preparations in case the forecast shifts to the north and brings hurricane conditions closer to the area.
For folks in the Houston area: Continue to monitor trends today and tomorrow. Make whatever preps you feel comfortable making or you feel are warranted. Current forecasts keep most meaningful impacts beyond localized flash flooding away from us. Coastal residents prepare for at least minor to moderate tidal flooding.
Happy Independence Day to our readers here in the U.S. Hope it is a safe, fun day and/or weekend for you.
Headlines
Hurricane Beryl is motoring toward the Yucatan, with landfall expected late tonight or Friday morning near or north of Tulum.
Beryl’s forecast toward the western Gulf is coming into slow focus now with a landfall likely well north of Tampico, Mexico and south of Port O’Connor, TX.
Hurricane impacts are possible to likely in South Texas Sunday into early Monday.
Beryl will transition into a heavy rainmaker once inland with increasing chances of excessive rain in South Texas showing up now.
Hurricane Beryl (115 mph, WNW 18 mph)
Beryl made a very close pass on Jamaica yesterday evening, and is now back out in the Caribbean chugging west northwest toward the Yucatan.
Beryl will continue west or west northwest toward the Yucatan through tomorrow. Beryl’s satellite presentation has been fairly stable the last few hours. (Tropical Tidbits)
Beryl’s near-term track appears to have shifted a smidge to the north versus yesterday or is at least riding the northern half of the guidance envelope. This was probably enough to allow Beryl to ultimately come in on the Yucatan a little farther north than it seemed yesterday. Instead or near or south of Tulum, we’re probably looking at landfall near or north of Tulum. Significant storm surge, heavy rain, and hurricane winds are expected across the Yucatan and perhaps as far south as northern Belize (though the latter will be on the relative weaker side of the storm). Rain totals are expected to be upwards of 10 inches locally.
Rain up to 10 inches (250 mm) or a bit more will be possible in portions of the Yucatan as Beryl sweeps through. (NOAA WPC)
With Beryl being quick moving that should hopefully lessen the rainfall impact from the storm a bit.
What about Texas?
Most of our readership lies in Texas, so let’s talk about Beryl’s end game for a minute. Since yesterday, Beryl maintain some intensity and is tracking on the northern half of the guidance envelope. Obviously that brings portions of south Texas more into play for Beryl’s landfall. The Houston area remains unlikely to see any direct impacts from Beryl. However folks from Corpus Christi southward are very much in play.
Beryl’s tropical model forecast tracks continue to slowly narrow on a landfall point north of about La Pesca, MX and south of Matagorda Bay, TX. (Tropical Tidbits)
Modeling has been bouncing around a bit, but there’s been a significant shift toward a consensus in the last 18 hours or so. This places south Texas firmly in the possible crosshairs of a landfall from Beryl.
Exactly where it makes landfall is too soon to say, but interests from about Port O’Connor south to the Rio Grande will want to monitor the forecast the next couple days. Landfall would probably come around late Sunday night, with impacts beginning early Sunday. There is still a bit of uncertainty in what Beryl will look like when it emerges from the Yucatan, but it will have marginally favorable conditions to reintensify as it tracks toward northeast Mexico or south Texas. The expectation is that a hurricane will come ashore in that region Sunday night. We still need to work on intensity for it, but the current official NHC forecast is for a 75 mph hurricane near landfall. We remind people to not focus on the specific landfall point or intensity, as impacts will spread outward from the center. Even a landfall in Mexico would cause some impacts as far north as Corpus Christi.
Beryl looks increasingly likely to tap hard on the brakes as it turns northwest and comes inland. This means that Beryl is likely to produce several rounds of heavy rain across South Texas. Uncertainty on where Beryl meanders inland after landfall is very high. Beryl could stall out in South Texas or in the Rio Grande Valley. Or Beryl could just slowly drift north toward Hill Country. The current rainfall forecast for the region shows manageable rain, but some operational model guidance is beginning to get a little more unruly with rain totals above 10 inches in spots.
Rain totals are likely to grow from here once the exact track of Beryl comes into focus and some isolated areas will likely get 8 to 10 inches of rain or more. It is too early to attempt to pinpoint where. (Pivotal Weather)
This is becoming an increasing concern with Beryl. A lot of areas in South Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, or Hill Country need rain pretty badly. However, while a slowing or stalling tropical storm can provide that, it can also provide problems. Folks in South Texas will want to continue to monitor changes to the rainfall forecast closely in the days ahead. The current expectation is that areas from Houston into Louisiana will see an uptick in daily thunderstorms next week but generally manageable rainfall. We will continue to watch this closely.
Beyond Beryl
Beryl was a good role model for Invest 96L. Much like its bigger sibling, 96L also refuses to give up, though it remains extremely disorganized in the Caribbean. It will follow Beryl west and northwest and may inject a dose of additional moisture into the rains over Texas or Mexico next week, but it seems unlikely to develop much on its own. Beyond that, it’s quiet and hopefully stays that way for a week or two.
(5:10 PM CT Update): Beryl continues to defy some logic and fight back hard against wind shear. Satellite presentation has improved a good bit over the last couple hours, and it’s tracking very close to the coast of Jamaica.
Beryl on satellite is coming dangerously close to a landfall on Jamaica. (Weathernerds.org)
Land interaction and continued wind shear should allow Beryl to weaken a bit more as it passes off to the west tonight. In general though, while Beryl’s central pressure has been gradually increasing, its winds seem to want to keep going. Model guidance did a couple things today with respect to Beryl going forward. There are no meaningful changes to track or impacts for the Yucatan, with a landfall near Tulum expected on Friday. Beyond the Yucatan, the models again adjusted back south (after a flirtation back north after our post this morning). Most European ensemble members and most tropical models favor a track south of South Padre Island, TX.
Model consensus shows a trend with older runs (lighter colors) farther north and newer runs (darker colors) farther south. (Brian Tang/SUNY Albany)
At this point, I would say that folks from Corpus Christi southward should continue to watch Beryl closely. North of there, we don’t currently expect any significant impacts at this time. Beryl is expected to weaken to a tropical storm over the Yucatan before restrengthening, albeit slowly, into a hurricane in the Bay of Campeche or southwest Gulf. More on this and the rainfall expected from Beryl for Texas as a whole tomorrow morning.
Headlines
Beryl will make a close pass to Jamaica later today as a major hurricane with surge, wind, and heavy rainfall.
Beryl is beginning to feel the effects of wind shear and slow, steady weakening is forecast as it comes west.
It is still likely to be a hurricane as it approaches the Yucatan on Friday, likely coming ashore south of Cancun and Cozumel.
Beryl should continue toward the northern Mexico or far south Texas coast as a tropical storm or lower-end hurricane this weekend.
Heavy rainfall is likely in Mexico and far South Texas as Beryl comes ashore and begins to slow down.
Hurricane Beryl (145 mph, WNW 20 mph)
Hurricane Beryl’s forecast as of Wednesday morning. (Tomer Burg)
Hurricane Beryl was a resilient storm through much of yesterday, as its core managed to resist some of the shear Beryl began experiencing. Alas, Beryl’s satellite presentation has degraded markedly this morning, with even the eye becoming filled with clouds.
Beryl appears to finally be feeling the wind shear that was expected to impact the storm as it moved into the western Caribbean. (Tropical Tidbits)
That said, its on a beeline for Jamaica as a major hurricane and conditions should begin to deteriorate through the day today. Significant surge and wind, in addition to heavy rainfall should arrive in Jamaica today and continue into tonight. Despite the satellite presentation degrading, that is still a nasty core of the hurricane heading to Jamaica. For the Cayman Islands, surge and wind, in addition to heavy rain arrive late tonight or tomorrow.
Total rainfall will be near or over a foot (300 mm) in eastern Jamaica, with widespread totals of 8 to 10 inches (200 to 250 mm) from the Caymans into Cozumel and the northeast Yucatan. (NOAA WPC)
As Beryl comes west, it is expected to maintain hurricane intensity as it approaches the Yucatan this weekend. The current forecast likely keeps the center of the storm south of Cancun and Cozumel, with a landfall likely near or south of Tulum. In recent days, the debate within modeling has been surrounding its intensity. A stronger storm was more likely to lift northwest toward the Houston area or Louisiana, while a weaker storm would stay farther south into Mexico or extreme south Texas. We seem to be approaching a mild consensus right now on that track. There are still a very, very small number of outliers bringing Beryl north of Matagorda Bay late this weekend. However, the vast majority of ensemble members and tropical models are now in decent agreement in bringing Beryl more on the southern half of the forecast envelope.
Track forecast consensus has started to increase a bit for late this weekend. As long as Beryl behaves as expected, there is moderate agreement that it will track between South Padre Island and Tampico, MX when it encounters the Gulf Coast. (Tomer Burg)
For information specific to Houston, check out the latest at Space City Weather. But it would appear that this comes in well south of the Houston area. It will be important to check back again later today or tomorrow morning just to ensure that remains the case.
The Yucatan will do a number on Beryl, but there may be a brief window for Beryl to regain strong tropical storm or hurricane status as it comes across the Bay of Campeche before coming ashore.
One interesting wrinkle with Beryl, regardless of its intensity as it comes ashore in the western Gulf will be how fast it slams on the brakes. Beryl has been plowing west all week around 20 mph give or take. When it gets to the Gulf Coast, the strong high pressure that had been steering Beryl will begin to weaken some but not dissipate completely. Meanwhile, the West will be enduring a long-duration heat wave with strong high pressure over California.
The upper pattern is slowly coming into focus Sunday with Beryl growing increasingly unlikely to be “captured” by troughing over the Upper Midwest or northern Plains. Beryl could slow to a crawl over northern Mexico or far south Texas. (Tropical Tidbits)
That could lead to steering currents weakening and forcing Beryl to slow down substantially or even stall out for a short time over Mexico or far South Texas. When the “s” word gets thrown around, I know some folks in Texas can panic, but I want to be clear. This isn’t a Harvey-redux. Even models that do show a stall keep rain totals far under that. That being said, this is a unique storm on its own and while rain would be extremely welcome in the Rio Grande and northern Mexico, too much rain can always cause issues. So we’ll watch trends in the coming days closely.
The current 7-day rainfall forecast through next Wednesday morning shows the potential for 5 inches of rain in far South Texas or northern Mexico. Higher amounts are likely in spots. (NOAA WPC)
Rain should transition to scattered thunderstorms into next week over Texas and Mexico.
Invest 96L
Beryl’s much less talented sibling is Invest 96L, which continues to follow in Beryl’s footsteps. It has plenty of thunderstorms with it, but it is being blasted by what is basically the “exhaust” from Beryl, which is keeping it completely disorganized.
Heavy rain and thunderstorms are moving into the Windward Islands from 96L, likely hampering recovery efforts in Grenada. Invest 96L is extremely disorganized, and development is expected to be slow if it happens at all. (Tropical Tidbits)
While this will unfortunately deliver heavy rain to some of the storm ravaged Windward Islands today, it is unlikely to develop much beyond this over the next two to three days. Most modeling keeps it this way until the bitter end. The usual troublemakers (the GFS and Canadian models) try to make something of it, but I think that’s a very low likelihood scenario. That said, if the thunderstorm activity can be maintained as it tracks into Mexico, it could add a shot in the arm to any rainfall ongoing in that region or far South Texas next week, a scenario that’s plausible. We’ll keep an eye on things.
Beyond 96L, the tropics are expected to shut down for a little bit. Here’s hoping that’s the case.
