Matt Lanza

Gulf development may ultimately end up heading to Florida as a cold front dives south early next week

Headlines

  • Disorganized showers and storms over the Gulf will become a disturbance this weekend. It will likely track east toward Florida.
  • The current thinking is that it will have a low ceiling of intensity, but it may be a significant rain maker, especially on the coast (both west and east coast of Florida).
  • Hurricane Kirk should become a category 4 storm over the next couple days in the open Atlantic, no threat to land.
  • Tropical Depression 13 has formed behind Kirk and should become Leslie, also no threat to land.

Gulf potential still there

We continue to monitor the chances of Gulf development. Although the NHC maintains a 40 percent chance this morning, I suspect that may be slowly increasing again. If we look at satellite imagery, we see two disorganized disturbances right now; one in the Bay of Campeche and another in the northwest Caribbean.

Disorganized thunderstorm activity is a little more widespread today than it has been. (Weathernerds.org)

The overall environment is somewhat favorable for development, but there’s just no order to any of this right now, so any sort of organization would proceed slowly. Over the next couple days, we’ll likely see this lift north and sort of merge in the Gulf, becoming one disorganized disturbance near or north of the Yucatan. By the time we get to Sunday, we should have an invest or some sort of surface low pressure system in the central Gulf of Mexico.

Surface low pressure should develop by Sunday in the central Gulf. Note the cold fronts over the Southeast and Central US, however. (NOAA WPC)

This will sit there while a weak front in the Southeast and a slightly more robust front in the Plains and Mid-South drop southward toward the Gulf on Monday and Tuesday. What this means is that whatever this becomes will likely get pushed eastward toward Florida. Unlike Helene which came northward, this one seems more likely to have an easterly bend in its track toward the Peninsula. By Tuesday morning, we likely have some sort of system, be it still an invest or perhaps a tropical depression sitting just off the west coast of Florida.

Low pressure will probably be just west of Tampa next Tuesday as twin cold fronts push it eastward. Intensity appears to be weak, but it will have a lot of rain with it. (NOAA WPC)

Based on most modeling, there is decent growing agreement in some sort of weak low moving into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday or so. I don’t expect this to be a hurricane right now, but a tropical storm is a possibility, and this will certainly carry a good deal of rain across Florida as well. Expect marine impacts, rip currents, and breezy conditions next week if you’re visiting Florida. Rain totals are pretty steady day over day, though isolated higher amounts closer to 10 inches will be possible on either the Gulf Coast or East Coast of Florida next week.

Rain totals of 4 to 8 inches seem reasonable next week in Florida, mainly between Tampa and Fort Myers or West Palm Beach and Daytona Beach along the coast. Interior areas may also see heavy rainfall, but the highest totals will be on the coastline. (Pivotal Weather)

So, at this point in Florida, you’re probably looking at a swimming and marine hazard risk, along with the potential for flash flooding from rainfall, especially on the coast. Obviously the West Coast does not need to hear more about any flooding, but it’s a possibility to monitor. Surge impacts would probably be light to moderate from this. Obviously if this can find a way to intensify further, we’re looking at a different outcome. At present, modeling is in good agreement on the scenario outlined above being the likely one. But as always continue to monitor forecasts for any changes.

Atlantic twins ahead

Hurricane Kirk is now expected to become a category 4 storm in the next couple of days as it wanders over the open Atlantic.

Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Depression 13 (southeast of Kirk) taking up residence in the eastern Atlantic. (Colorado State, CIRA)

Kirk should go beast mode out in the open Atlantic the next couple days, while TD 13 slowly gathers steam. Modeling is a bit less aggressive with 13, but we should at least see Tropical Storm and eventually Hurricane Leslie form. It, too, is expected to remain out at sea, not far from Kirk. Neither are threats to land.

Behind these two, there are no signs of any meaningful disturbances at this time. Hopefully we can enter a period of calm in mid-October, but we’ll see if anything else shows itself in the days ahead.

Gulf development chances stagnate some but remain worth monitoring as Kirk revs up in the open Atlantic

Headlines

  • Helene help continues to be desperately needed.
  • Gulf development odds have stalled somewhat, but development of a sloppy system tracking east or northeast in the Gulf this weekend or next week seems plausible.
  • The main concern we currently have is potential for heavy rain in Florida.
  • Tropical Storm Kirk should become a hurricane in the next day, while Invest 91L may become a depression or Tropical Storm Leslie by tomorrow or Thursday. Neither are currently expected to impact land.

Helene latest

As communication slowly gets restored to affected areas from Hurricane Helene, we are beginning to get a sense of the scope of the disaster and the horrific details of loss and survival. The toll will likely get worse before it gets better. And we continue to encourage folks to contribute to organizations helping directly with the recovery efforts. Our list from yesterday:

Blue Ridge NPR has a good list. (many locally based resources on this list and other orgs, such as Samaritan’s Purse)

The East Tennessee Foundation is a resource as well.

A Houston-based organization that specifically helps food and beverage workers (of which many were impacted) called the Southern Smoke Foundation is another one I personally support and recommend.

World Central Kitchen is on the ground there also, serving up meals.

The Fuel Relief Fund specifically helps people with fuel.

Team Rubicon is on the ground as well.

Crowdsource Rescue is another org we’ve directly engaged with in the past that is doing incredible work right now.

The Cajun Navy is also doing rescue work in the region, and they’ve been a friend to us in Houston too.

Gulf development odds stall a bit

Now for some good news, I guess. Development odds over the next week or so in the Gulf have stalled a bit, or at least stagnated some. The NHC map is at 40 percent this morning, same as it was yesterday.

Odds of development remain moderate for the Gulf over the next week. (NOAA NHC)

Keep in mind that the orange hatched area above indicates *where* development could occur, not where the system is expected to track. There’s not a whole lot to look at this morning, as any disturbance is very nascent and poorly organized. Over the next couple days, this will migrate northward and perhaps get slightly better organized. Various models depict various solutions, including the possibility that additional areas of disturbed weather enter the picture as well. Overall, the picture looks sloppy.

Tropical development may emerge from disturbed weather in the southwest Caribbean, as it comes northward. (Tropical Tidbits)

It’s worth noting for those extra concerned that this looks nothing at all like Helene did at this point in its life cycle. So this is why we continue to think that things are likely to be much sloppier and a bit lower end on the intensity scale as this gets moving.

The model solutions really do range from a more organized system to even 2 organized systems to just a “blob” of moisture that tracks northwest, then north, then northeast or even east-northeast across the Gulf, generally toward Florida. Some even sort of stall it out over the open Gulf, sort of like we saw last month off Texas where an undeveloped system sat and festered for a while before Francine emerged from the slop after a week or two. If you look at the GFS ensemble in particular, it shows a whole slew of options.

The 30 member GFS ensemble shows a number of possible solutions ranging from low-end hurricane to tropical storm to depression or less. In general, this would track northeast or east-northeast toward Florida or the eastern Gulf Coast. (Weathernerds.org)

Again, this is much different than how things looked ahead of Helene. Given the idea of a sloppy system, a front in the vicinity early next week, and a somewhat disorganized initial disturbance, all this leads me to think that a messy rainmaker may be on tap for the eastern Gulf Coast and Florida this weekend and next week. Indeed, the rainfall forecast in Florida is solid. For now, serious flooding isn’t expected, but continue to watch this and monitor its progress in the coming days. I think it’s obvious that this one is going to be of lower predictability than Helene was. But also hopefully lower risk as well.

Rainfall over the next week will be highest on the Gulf Coast of Florida and across Central Florida. (Pivotal Weather)

Kirk gaining momentum, and Invest 91L may develop behind it

Tropical Storm Kirk is on the precipice of hurricane intensity this afternoon, as it is a 70 mph tropical storm. Kirk is still expected to remain safely out at sea.

Tropical Storm Kirk is gaining momentum while fighting off some residual shear today. (Tropical Tidbits)

Kirk should intensify steadily over the coming days, peaking as at least a category 3 and possibly category 4 storm over the open Atlantic later this week. Expect to see some pretty stunning satellite imagery at some point. Again, thankfully, Kirk will avoid land.

Behind Kirk, we do have a second area, Invest 91L. This one is close to developing as well. Over the coming days, this will take a track generally south and west of Kirk’s track. This should still keep it out at sea, but we’ll continue to watch this one closely in case it can manage to brush the islands eventually.

Invest 91L has a bit of a wide spread of possibilities. A weaker storm would probably track on the south side of that forecast envelope, while a stronger one would lean to the north. For now, it’s expected to stay out at sea too. (Tropical Tidbits)

That’s all we’ve got for now. We will likely see some additional Pacific systems later this week as well. None at this point look to threaten land for now. More to come!

Gulf remains a hot spot for potential activity while Kirk is likely to put on a show in the open Atlantic

Headlines

  • Help continues to be needed in parts of Appalachia after Hurricane Helene. We have a first-hand account from a reader.
  • Potential tropical development this week in the Gulf continues to look a bit tricky and possibly sloppy. Interests in the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue monitoring things through the week.
  • Tropical Storm Kirk is likely to become one of the season’s biggest storms in the open Atlantic this week, likely becoming a major hurricane far from land.
  • No other serious tropical concerns to watch right now.

I want to just share an email we received from a reader who was in Asheville during Helene. It’s been tough to get a lot of great information out of this region because it’s so difficult to access right now. That will change in the next couple days, and we will likely be seeing and hearing of even worse devastation that we’ve seen thus far.

Our reader emails:

We were vacationing in the Asheville, NC area and have seen the devastation personally. Your note (of) this on the website is accurate and honestly a source of nightmares. What readers should understand is what makes this different in the Asheville area than what we see in Texas (or Gulf) storms is two (maybe 3 by this time) dams breached flooding out many of the poorest areas in the valley in the most destructive manner possible. I hope your readers take note of your words and choose to contribute.

There are ways you can help those in need even if you live far from the impacted areas.

Blue Ridge NPR has a good list.

The East Tennessee Foundation is a resource as well.

A Houston-based organization that specifically helps food and beverage workers (of which many were impacted) called the Southern Smoke Foundation is another one I personally support and recommend.

The Fuel Relief Fund specifically helps people with fuel.

Team Rubicon is on the ground as well.

Crowdsource Rescue is another org we’ve directly engaged with in the past that is doing incredible work right now.

The Cajun Navy is also doing rescue work in the region, and they’ve been a friend to us in Houston too.

As disaster expert Samantha Montano noted last night on Twitter/X, we’re probably looking at a 10 to 15 year recovery at least for this region. Every little bit of help matters.

A tricky Gulf forecast

The headline point today is that we continue to see decent odds that a tropical system will form in the Gulf later this week. But modeling remains extremely uncertain on track and intensity to a point where we may be looking at a sloppier setup than has been the case for much of this season.

With another disturbance poised to emerge from the Central American Gyre (CAG) formation, we will have another one to watch. As of today, it’s just a mass of clouds and thunderstorms east of Nicaragua and north of Costa Rica and Panama.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a developing disturbance that will emerge from the Central American Gyre this week and stands a moderate chance at gradual development in the Gulf. (Colorado State CIRA)

The NHC has actually lowered development odds versus yesterday, down from 50 percent to 40 percent. We can quibble on whatever those exact odds are, but I think the takeaway right now is that unlike Helene, this is not a slam dunk case where high-end development is highly likely. If anything, high-end development seems unlikely right now. But moderate development of something sloppy seems very plausible. Keep in mind that “sloppy” does not always translate to “good,” as a disorganized system coming out of a very warm Caribbean can still carry a bountiful amount of moisture. So once more, we may have to discuss flooding risks later this week or weekend.

Since we don’t yet have a defined disturbance, we have a bit of hand waviness going on in terms of forecasting. The models handled this element of Helene well early on, but they seem to be struggling with this one. That’s not uncommon. CAG systems tend to be more challenging to predict than waves off Africa. Helene was an exception more than the rule.

GFS ensemble tracks from the 30 different ensemble members through day 5 (Friday night) for the Gulf disturbance shows a minority of members developing a robust system and a majority keeping it weak and mostly meandering across the Yucatan into the Gulf. (Weathernerds.org)

The current model guidance is sort of a mixed bag. I have the GFS shown above, with ensemble members ranging from well developed in the eastern Gulf (a minority) to poorly developed and hugging the Yucatan (a majority). This is sort of opposite of what we saw with Helene where the GFS ensemble led in showing aggressive development. This also has the support of the European AI (AIFS) model and the ICON model to a lesser extent.

There are a couple things that could happen here. If the system follows the minority, we get a tropical storm or hurricane that lifts north and northeast potentially across Florida at some point toward the weekend. Some rapid development couldn’t be ruled out, but in general the ceiling would likely be lower than Helene. If the system follows the majority, it may fester for a time near or off the Yucatan and eventually get pushed north and east by an approaching cold front early next week. That would time the system toward Florida or the eastern Gulf next Monday through Wednesday. That could also be a tropical storm or hurricane.

The potential for heavy rain across Florida is in the forecast over the next week, though the exact timing and location of the heaviest rain is up for debate. (Pivotal Weather)

For now, we should expect an increase in rain chances and potentially heavy rain heading toward the weekend across the eastern Gulf Coast, including Florida. But details are highly uncertain right now. We’ll keep on top of things.

Kirk will light up the open Atlantic

Tropical Depression 12 has become Tropical Storm Kirk this morning. Kirk is expected to become a major fish storm. In other words, it should avoid land.

Tropical Storm Kirk should rapidly intensify into a major hurricane this week, possibly becoming a category 4 storm over the open Atlantic. (NOAA NHC)

Kirk is expected to intensify rapidly. The NHC forecast currently shows it as a category 3 or borderline category 4 hurricane by Wednesday night or Thursday. Model guidance even shows that Kirk could become a higher end category 4 or even 5 storm if all the right ingredients came together. Again, thankfully Kirk’s forecast is fairly predictable and it will avoid land. Most shipping interests should also have ample time to get out of Kirk’s way. Kirk will also probably help Atlantic accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) to make up some lost ground.

Isaac & Joyce

Both Isaac and Joyce have now degenerated into depressions or post-tropical cyclones. Isaac looks to continue to get absorbed into a broader European storm later this week.

Another deep Atlantic system to come?

Model signals continue to indicate that yet another system could develop behind Kirk in the deep Atlantic. This one looks more likely to take a slightly farther south and west track, as it would likely be slower to organize, so it may merit some additional babysitting for the islands heading into next week. For now, it’s not a serious concern.

Massive recovery ahead due to Helene, but the tropics remain somewhat busy

Headlines

  • Helene recovery is likely to take a very long time, and we have some links where you can donate.
  • More rain the next couple days in Virginia and West Virginia.
  • Another Gulf system is becoming possible late this week or weekend and may again track north and northeast toward the eastern Gulf, but there is high uncertainty.
  • Isaac and Joyce will dissipate this week, with Kirk likely to develop in the open Atlantic.
  • Another system behind Kirk may bear watching in the Caribbean after this week.

Our thoughts are with folks impacted by Hurricane Helene. From what I have read and seen and heard about some parts of western North Carolina and Tennessee, it’s really, really bad. Worse than might be known at this point. Speaking as someone from Houston, which was has dealt with floods and then been flooded with resources after storms, these more rural communities are likely to be dealing with this for a long time and will need a *lot* of help in the weeks and months ahead, as the resources and media attention don’t always focus on places like that.

Keep in mind that after catastrophes like this, “stuff” is nice to donate but what is really needed is money. So consider that if you’re looking for ways to help. The United Way of North Carolina has a fund setup specific for Helene. Blue Ridge NPR has a nice list of organizations you can donate to as well. There is also the East Tennessee Foundation for folks there. Please post any other organizations in these areas in the comments.

As of late Sunday morning, there are still about 2.5 million customers without power from Florida to Ohio. This is down from a peak of around 4.5 million. It will take a long time to get to some areas in mountainous and rural western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee though, and some of these locations could be without power for weeks; the damage is just that complete in these areas.

Storm surge is the deadliest aspect of a landfalling hurricane, but inland flooding can dwarf that sometimes. We’ve seen it time and again in the last several years. If you live inland in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, or Northeast, you need to be prepared for hurricanes too.

There will be a lot more to discuss with Helene which we’ll save for another day. But suffice to say we have seen the worst-case scenario play out a lot more often in recent years. And this is going to be a big discussion point going forward both in how forecasts are communicated and how communities prepare for storms. You can’t rely just on the known lessons from past disasters anymore.

Forecast this week

The upper low and remnants of Helene will continue to produce generally light showers across the Midwest and East the next couple days before finally being ushered off to the east later this week. There will be pockets of steadier rain though, particularly in Virginia and West Virginia. Total rainfall over the next 5 days could add up to a couple inches there.

Rainfall through Thursday should be heaviest in Virginia and West Virginia as the broader storm containing Helene’s remnants slowly exits. (Pivotal Weather)

Localized flash flooding is possible today and tomorrow in the mountains there or Shenandoah Valley. These areas were not as severely impacts as areas to the south, but they remain vulnerable to localized flash flooding impacts.

Gulf & Caribbean: Something to watch

So what comes next? Unfortunately, the NHC now has a 50 percent chance of development somewhere between the Gulf and northwest Caribbean over the next 7 days.

A disturbance emerging from a Central American gyre type setup will carry a 50 percent chance of development this week in the Gulf or Caribbean. (NOAA NHC)

For our many readers in Texas, at this point, I would not expect this disturbance to come this far north and west. It will take at least the next 3 to 4 days to develop, and by the time it matures enough, it appears a cold front is headed toward the Gulf that will likely carry this back to the north and east. What this means for places from New Orleans through Florida is still a bit unclear. Modeling is sort of all over the place. At this point with Helene, we had basically two very distinct camps, one that buried the storm near the Yucatan and another (that got it right) carrying it north and northeast as a stronger storm. For this system, we have a similar sort of mixing of outcomes but there’s not exactly a distinct grouping of camps. In other words, there’s a good deal of uncertainty. The GFS ensembles are mixed, with some favoring a stronger storm headed back toward Florida and another group that ends up weaker. Some modeling doesn’t develop this at all. The ICON and European AI models generally show slower development and slow movement.

The GFS Ensemble from last night has some members carrying this disturbance toward Florida, a handful keeping it buried in the Gulf, and others still that never develop it. (Tropical Tidbits)

Given the uncertainty here, it’s important to continue to monitor this over the next couple days, especially in the eastern Gulf. But I will say that the more mixed nature of things in modeling makes me feel that a Helene redux is unlikely in this scenario. That said, keep watching. Impacts, assuming the system develops would likely occur next weekend.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic: Kirk to come

We currently have two active systems, Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce. Neither are direct threats to land.

Isaac and Joyce are likely headed toward dissipation soon. (NOAA NHC)

Both storms should lose tropical characteristics over the next 3 to 4 days and dissipate. Isaac will become part of a larger storm just north of the British Isles, as is periodically the case with North Atlantic storms.

Meanwhile, there are two additional areas to watch in the eastern Atlantic. First, there is Invest 90L, which looks like it’s ready to go off to the races. This one should turn northwest and north, generally following Joyce.

A busy Atlantic to close September. (College of DuPage)

The next name up is Kirk. Although this one is expected to go out to sea it’s worth keeping a side eye on for the Caribbean and Bermuda at least.

Behind 90L we look to have another disturbance in that cloud cover back off Africa. This is not expected to develop quickly meaning that it could come a bit farther west across the Atlantic. I might say that this one is more concerning in some aspects that what should become Kirk. If this can sneak west enough, it may find its own little environment to get going in. There’s not a ton of model support for this one either way, but interests in the Caribbean should at least keep an eye on it over the next 5 to 7 days as it comes west.

So over the next 7 to 10 days we likely have at least one more Atlantic storm and one more Caribbean or Gulf system. We may get a third storm in the Atlantic toward the end of that time horizon. Getting to (L)eslie or (M)ilton would put us at 12 or 13 storms for the season with a good 3 to 4 weeks of potential to go. Still far short of preseason expectations but somewhat less of an error. We’ll watch everything over the next couple weeks and keep you posted.