Matt Lanza

October 6, 2023 Outlook: Philippe to bring wind and rain to Maine and Canada and even some snow to Quebec and Ontario

One-sentence summary

Philippe will bring a variety of weather to Maine, Quebec, and Ontario this weekend as it transitions to a non-tropical storm and offers up heavy rain, gusty winds, and even some snow in parts of Canada.

Philippe destined to follow Lee’s footprints

Tropical Storm Philippe is a little stronger today as the center approaches Bermuda. Wind gusts over 50 mph were reported on the island this morning. The forecast remains mostly on track, with Philippe essentially being a smaller, less intense version of last month’s Hurricane Lee.

Philippe is in the initial stages of extratropical transition, where it goes from a tropical entity (a storm that derives energy from warm water) to something akin to a nor’easter (a storm driven by jet stream processes and one that will acquire fronts). Storms are displaced east of Philippe’s center today. (Weathernerds.org)

Philippe will likely become post-tropical by tomorrow and transition to a strong nor’easter-type storm as it moves toward the Gulf of Maine or Bay of Fundy this weekend. It is expected to hook back to the north and west across Quebec and eventually stall out on the south end of James Bay, bringing rain and even some snow to Quebec or portions of interior Ontario.

As Philippe transitions to an extratropical storm it will hook back to the north and west across Quebec and settle near the border with Ontario. (Tomer Burg)

The National Hurricane Center will not be issuing tropical products for Philippe as it moves into Canada and New England, indicating that while it will bring impacts they should be managed at the local level. I think a very plain language translation of this means that, while a notable storm, it is not expected to be an especially damaging one. Marine impacts should primarily be gusty winds and large swells. We’re in a lower phase of the tide cycle right now so that helps mitigate that risk a bit.

Rain totals will peak in interior Maine, portions of the Adirondacks in New York, and interior Quebec, where as much as 5 inches of rain is possible. Click to enlarge. (NOAA WPC)

But the main concern with this will likely be tomorrow night and Sunday with locally heavy rain. Total rainfall may exceed 3 or 4 inches in spots, especially in interior Maine and Quebec (north & west of Quebec City, Montreal, and the National Capital Region). Grounds are still fairly damp, so flash flooding is a distinct possibility in spots. Snowfall would be most likely along the Ontario/Quebec border and north of a Sudbury-North Bay line in Ontario.

Watching the Gulf next week

We are starting to see some vague model agreement on next week’s setup with Pacific moisture and tropical noise tracking across Mexico and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico.

The upper level map suggests that whatever happens in the Pacific may get pulled across Mexico next week and into the Gulf, maybe as a lower-end storm, maybe as just a bunch of added moisture. (Tropical Tidbits)

The pattern in the Pacific is such that we should see a bit of a weird entanglement between Tropical Storm Lidia, Invest 99E (the disturbance off the Mexican coast), and an upper level trough in the atmosphere over the Southern Plains and Southeast. How so? In some way, either Lidia or 99E or both will get “pulled” northeast toward Mexico by the upper trough, which will then allow that cluster to track into the Gulf of Mexico. From there, it should probably track northeast or east-northeast across the Gulf toward Florida or the eastern Gulf Coast. What will it be? I don’t know. Probably not a large storm; probably something lower-end. But it could end up being a rain and/or severe weather producer in the Gulf waters or near the coast (or ultimately in Florida). The timing of all this would be late next week. We have a few days to watch this, and we’ll have an update this weekend and on Monday.

Elsewhere, the NHC continues to outline an area deep in the Atlantic that could develop, but it is unlikely to impact land if it does so.

Winter is coming

In addition to the potential snow from Philippe’s remnants in Canada this weekend, we have freeze warnings now populating across the Plains. Freeze watches and warnings extend from northeast Colorado and central Kansas into the Dakotas and portions of western Minnesota.

NWS watches and warnings as of Friday morning shows freeze warnings for more of the Dakotas, Nebraska, and portions of Kansas, Colorado, Wyoming, and Minnesota. Red flag warnings indicating fire risk due to drier air will be posted in the Deep South. (Pivotal Weather)

Low temperatures this morning are in the 20s in spots in Montana but will expand over a wider area on Saturday morning. A warming trend will follow for a time early next week.

Lower Mississippi River dryness

We continue to see the situation in the Lower Mississippi River basin look worse. For Louisiana salt water intrusion to halt or reverse, we need rain upstream; something that can basically flush the salt out. The forecast upriver from New Orleans does not look great, with Memphis likely to see a declining water level over the next 7 to 10 days and most of the Ohio Valley seeing less than half an inch of rain over the next week.

Water levels at Memphis remain near their all-time record lows set earlier this year. (NOAA)

The water level at Memphis this year preliminarily set a new record of -11 feet, and the level by the end of the forecast above has them down to about -10.6 feet again. Hopefully some more meaningful rain can fall around mid-October in the middle Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys, but much more is needed to alleviate the expanding problems in Louisiana. Thankfully at least, the projections for how far north the saltwater wedge gets have slowed considerably.

October 5, 2023 Outlook: Philippe to zip through Bermuda before bringing a nor’easter type impact to Maine, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada

One-sentence summary

Philippe will bring tropical storm conditions to Bermuda tonight and tomorrow before transitioning to a nor’easter-type system and moving into Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or Maine later this weekend.

Tropical Storm Philippe: Another one for Bermuda & Atlantic Canada/Maine

Tropical seasons tend to have “flavors” to them. And this year’s flavor seems to be that the corridor between Bermuda and Nova Scotia is the highway for quite a few systems. Philippe should join that list.

Philippe will likely bring tropical storm impacts to Bermuda tonight and tomorrow before moving into Maine or Atlantic Canada this weekend. (NOAA NHC)

Over the next few days, Philippe will track northward, probably passing just west of Bermuda tomorrow, which will lead to yet another round of tropical storm conditions on the island. Philippe is not necessarily a strong tropical storm, with winds of 40 mph this morning. But it is expected to gradually become a bit of a broad, more wind-laden system as it tracks past Bermuda and toward Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or Maine. Ironically, this will be as a result of the storm transitioning (much like Lee did) to an extratropical entity (more like a nor’easter than a tropical storm).

Rainfall over the next 7 days should add up to 1 to 4 inches on average, with a few pockets of higher amounts in Northern New York, Maine, or Quebec. (NOAA WPC)

The main issue from Philippe as it comes north will be gusty winds, rough waves and erosion, and heavy rain as it transitions into a robust non-tropical low over Maine and Quebec. Rain totals are currently expected to be on the order of 1 to 4 inches for portions of New England and Quebec, highest north of Ottawa and Montreal. Localized flooding will definitely be a possibility, and the Weather Prediction Center has northern New England highlighted in their excessive rainfall outlooks for Saturday through Monday.

The specifics on waves and winds will get sorted out in a day or two. But I would expect conditions generally less severe than Lee for Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Maine.

What else is out there?

The NHC is highlighting another area in the deep Atlantic that may be able to try to develop next week. Probably nothing, and certainly nothing to worry about at this point.

Closer to land, as Eric noted yesterday, we continue to see some noise in modeling with respect to some moisture off the coast of Mexico. Tropical Storm Lidia will go out to sea in the Pacific, but the next system, closer to the coast of Mexico when it comes west-northwest has a little more complexity.

While Lidia is not expected to be an issue, the area to watch off the coast of Guatemala and Mexico could end up influencing weather in both Mexico and the Southeast U.S. in time. (Tomer Burg)

This one has a chance to drift into Mexico and perhaps into the western Gulf. Should that happen, we could see heavy rain over Mexico or tracking across the Gulf from southwest to northeast. But there’s a long way to go to sort this all out.

Other than that and some strong storms in Texas this morning, we’ll have quieter weather across the U.S. the next few days.

October 3, 2023 Outlook: Philippe raining on the Lesser Antilles while autumn rains scatter across Texas

One-sentence summary

Philippe is dumping rain in the northern Lesser Anilles today before it heads out of town, leaving behind a quieter picture in the tropics.

Philippe impacting Anguilla, Antigua, and Barbuda with heavy rain & wind

Tropical Storm Philippe is moving north of the Leeward Islands this morning, but the worst of the weather really just arrived there overnight.

An extremely lopsided Tropical Storm Philippe is bringing very heavy rain and gusty winds to the northern half of the Lesser Antilles this morning. (Weathernerds.org)

Philippe is terribly organized, with its center displaced well north of all the thunderstorms. This is what will continue depositing several inches of rain on the Leeward Islands through tonight. Philippe will lift northwest and eventually north, albeit slowly over the next two days, before conditions begin to improve in the islands. Anywhere from 3 to 8 inches of rain will be possible when all is said and done particularly between Barbuda and Dominica. Flash flooding is certainly possible. The Virgin Islands should see closer to 1 to 3 inches of rain, with even a bit less in Puerto Rico.

From here, Philippe should head out to sea, passing close but east of Bermuda, where it has a puncher’s chance to become the season’s seventh hurricane. There is a slight chance it could bring some modest impacts to portions of Atlantic Canada next week, but that’s still a bit of a ways out to get too specific. It’s probably worth monitoring at least.

Beyond Philippe: Pacific action & low-level noise in the Atlantic

Outside of Philippe, the Atlantic looks quiet for the next 5 to 7 days before perhaps we’ll watch the southern Gulf or northwest Caribbean for signs of life. There’s nothing specific to focus in on right now, just a general low-level hum of static within the models. Often that’s a precursor to something, but not always. We’ll keep tuning in to see if we can decipher things.

In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Lidia has formed. The track forecast has gotten a little better together since yesterday (when it was Invest 98E). It now appears that Lidia is most likely to turn west into the open Pacific rather than impact land.

Tropical Storm Lidia is expected to become a hurricane and now appears likely to turn west into the open Pacific. (Tomer Burg)

Another system may develop closer to Mexico later this week or weekend as it gradually tracks west as well.

U.S Weather Notes: Texas rain & severe storms in the Plains; chilly weekend!

We went in depth on things yesterday, and today looks generally a bit quieter, although storms will spread across more of Texas. There is also a chance of locally heavy rain in the Houston area, which we have covered for you at Space City Weather.

The severe weather risk today is highest in the central Plains today. The Storm Prediction Center bumped up today’s risk to enhanced (level 3 of 5) in portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska.

Today’s severe weather risk is highest in Kansas, where all forms of severe weather will be possible late today into tonight. (NOAA)

Hail seems to be the biggest risk today, with some golf ball to hen egg size hail possible in the strongest storms. Tornadoes are possible with a few storms, and there should also be a fairly broad damaging wind threat.

We’ll continue to see pockets of heavy rain in Texas over the next few days which keeps the risk of localized flooding in play. That said, the dryness of the last few months will certainly mitigate any real serious flooding concerns in most of the state. We mentioned the heavy rain chances near Houston today. The Dallas area will probably get involved in some of this heavier rain tomorrow and tomorrow night.

The heaviest rain over the next few days will fall on the east side of the DFW Metroplex into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Isolated heavy rainfall is possible south into the Brazos Valley and Houston areas. (NOAA)

The first real cool air mass of the season continues to look likely for late this week and weekend, bringing at least a slight chance of frost or a freeze to parts of the northern Plains Friday or Saturday.

Morning lows on Saturday should be near or below freezing across portions of the Plains, leading to areas of frost or a freeze. (Pivotal Weather)

Low pressure will spin up along the front somewhere between Lake Erie and Quebec which will enhance rain over portions of Upstate New York or New England this weekend. As much as 3 or 4 inches of rain is possible for portions of Maine and New Hampshire, particularly in the White Mountains. We’ll have to keep an eye on this area for localized flooding this weekend.

We’ll leave you with a scene from Brighton Resort in Utah yesterday. A taste of winter.

More tomorrow!

October 2, 2023 Outlook: Philippe stands alone, while rain and cooler temperatures are coming to the Rockies and Plains this week

One-sentence summary

Philippe will brush the northern Antilles on its way out to sea this week, while the Atlantic temporarily calms down.

Tropical outlook: Philippe takes control, a brief break follows

Over the weekend, we watched the ballet between Rina and Philippe take place over the open Atlantic. As expected, Philippe won. These are not necessarily easy interactions to forecast, but truth be told, I think modeling did about as well as you could hope! Philippe basically sagged south as expected, while Rina overshot it to the north, and here we are this morning with the remnants of Rina to the north and Philippe to the south, readying to turn north and eventually out to sea.

An impressive burst of thunderstorms on the southeast side of Philippe’s center will impact the central and northern Lesser Antilles today, with pockets of tropical storm conditions possible. (Weathernerds.org)

That being said, before Philippe exits, it may brush some of the Lesser Antilles with some tropical storm conditions. Hence, Tropical Storm Watches are posted for Antigua and Barbuda, although judging by the satellite imagery above pockets of tropical storm conditions are possible for Martinique north through Anguilla. Philippe should creep northwest and then turn north over the next few days. It will begin to accelerate northward back into the open Atlantic later this week. There is a chance it will become our next hurricane as it does so. The good news is that it should not impact land beyond these modest impacts in the islands.

What to watch next: Caribbean & Gulf

We should enter into a period of quiet over the next 5 to 7 days in terms of new development. There’s not much out there on modeling, and the National Hurricane Center has not highlighted any areas to watch at this point either. So, we’ll assume that for this week, it’s Philippe and that’s all.

Now, next week? That’s another story. We expect the Pacific to pick up this week, with a potential developing storm off Mexico. Whether that becomes an issue for Baja next week is another story, as there is a bit of uncertainty around Invest 98E.

That said, the center of action is going to shift to the Eastern Pacific over the next week, and then possibly eventually into the Atlantic basin again, this time focused on the Gulf and Caribbean. Climatologically, this is where you’d be looking in October also. While there is no specific feature I can point to yet, there are growing amounts of noise showing up late in the northwest Caribbean and eastern Gulf. Any system that *can* develop there would probably track north or north-northeast into the southwest Atlantic or eastern half of the Gulf. But we are a long way off from being able to say more than that. This is something we’ll watch this week.

The individual members of the GFS ensemble tell a complicated, uncertain story around Invest 98E in the Pacific, which has a wide range of potential options heading into the weekend and next week. (Tomer Burg)

Additionally, it does make sense to keep an eye on Invest 98E in the Pacific, which does have at least some chance of funneling moisture up into Texas next week. In addition to potential impacts in Baja, there’s a slight chance it could deliver moisture into more of Mexico or the U.S. But too many questions remain to get too serious about this one.

U.S. weather update: Texas rain and a sweeping cold front

As we noted last week, as hurricane season calms down, we’ll be transitioning to cover some other noteworthy weather stories. This week, the focus is on Texas and temperatures, as some big weather pattern changes at least temporarily establish themselves.

Midwest warmth & Texas rain

A rather classic autumn weather pattern will establish itself this week, as a storm system establishes in the northern Rockies and ejects out across the northern Plains into Canada. This storm will drag a cold front out of the Rockies, onto the Plains, and then off to the east late this week and weekend. Ahead of the front: Very warm and very humid air builds up. In fact, a number of locations are likely to set record highs today and perhaps tomorrow too, including Des Moines, Fargo, Minneapolis, and Green Bay. Heat warnings are even posted in southwest Ontario in Canada for this weather.

Record high temperatures are expected in boxed locations today between Nebraska and South Dakota into Michigan. (Weather Bell)

As the front kicks off, showers and storms will begin to pop ahead of it with strong to severe storms possible in eastern New Mexico and west Texas today, particularly just west of Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland.

Isolated severe weather with hail and damaging winds will be possible today in eastern New Mexico and portions of extreme western Texas. (NWS Albuquerque)

Tornadoes are not expected, but strong winds and hail are possible. Additionally, heavy rainfall will accompany these storms, with a slight (level 2/4) risk for excessive rainfall in eastern New Mexico and west Texas today.

Areas of flash flooding are possible. That threat of heavy rain will expand east into Central Texas as the week progresses, especially on Wednesday and Thursday. The front will finally bring some much needed relief from almost non-stop excessively hot weather in Texas since July. And the rain will be very, very welcome, as much of Texas remains in serious drought.

Rainfall for the next seven days across the southern Plains will be very beneficial for Hill Country, the Rio Grande Valley, and extending up into Oklahoma. (Pivotal Weather)

Rain totals in Texas this week will be on the order of 1 to 3 inches, with higher amounts possible, especially in the Coastal Bend and around Corpus Christi, along the border with Mexico back toward Del Rio, and perhaps just east of Dallas.

Lower Mississippi still struggles as saltwater continues creeping toward New Orleans

The good news is that a fair bit of rain will fall in the Red River Basin and (to a lesser extent) the Missouri Basin this week, which will eventually end up in the Lower Mississippi. However, this is nowhere near enough. The lack of much rain in the Ohio River Valley is not helping matters either. We discussed this more in depth last week. We’ll keep monitoring things.

While rainfall in the Red River Valley looks decent, the needed rainfall to help feed the Mississippi River will be severely lacking in the Ohio Valley. (Pivotal Weather)

Some snows in the Interior West

It’s still a bit early for any real severely impactful winter weather, but as is often the case, we are beginning to see snow in the Rockies at times. The winners this week will probably be the western Uintas in Utah (one of the author’s favorite places he’s ever visited), where 4 to 8 inches of snow is expected today and a winter weather advisory is posted. Several ranges in Wyoming will also see a few inches of snow.

Snow fall of several inches is likely in the Uintas in Utah and portions of western Wyoming over the next day or so. (Pivotal Weather)

A number of places in the interior West and perhaps some in the northern Plains will also see their first frosts and freezes later this week as cooler air comes roaring in. After a long, long hot summer, it’s nice to be able to talk about cool weather again.