Matt Lanza

The next Atlantic depression may soon form but is not a land threat, while a coastal storm pounds the Mid-Atlantic coast

September 16, 2025 at 9:46 amSeptember 16, 2025 at 9:46 am by Matt Lanza

In brief: Invest 92L is on the cusp of becoming a tropical depression later today or tomorrow in the Atlantic. Neither it nor the wave behind it appear to be land threats right now. A coastal storm will deliver wind, tidal flooding, and heavy rain to the Virginia Tidewater and northern Outer Banks today and tonight. Mario’s moisture will play a role in a very, very active pattern for California beginning tomorrow.

Invest 92L

We got the invest overnight. The Atlantic tropical wave is now designated Invest 92L, and it looks as though this is on its way to getting an upgrade at some point in the next 12 to 36 hours.

Over the next week or so, 92L will track west-northwest or due northwest in the Atlantic, tracking over gradually warming water.

Tropical model forecast tracks for Invest 92L with sea-surface temperatures underlaid show that the system will be encountering at least favorable water temperatures over the next 5 to 7 days. (Cyclonicwx.com)

The current forecast track shows minimal concern for any land mass. Bermuda can’t be entirely ruled out here, but that’s at least 6 to 7 days out. For now, this isn’t one to worry about, but we’ll continue to watch to be safe. The next name on the list remains Gabrielle.

Behind 92L

The NHC has identified the next wave as another area of interest. This one is smaller in size than Invest 92L, and it also has a little less model support for development than 92L had at this stage.

The next wave off Africa has about a 20 percent chance of developing over the next 7 days. (NOAA NHC)

The initial odds of 20 percent feel right at this point. We’ll keep an eye on this as well, but it seems less likely to be a development issue than 92L should be. No threat to land at this point either.

Gulf/Western Caribbean

We continue to see some “noise” from the usual suspects (cough, the GFS model) far out in time in the Gulf or western Caribbean. This is a normal model bias for late September and October, so get used to seeing spurious tropical systems on that specific model guidance.

That said, there is some very, very modest support for some potential “noise” in that area on other guidance. We can’t latch onto a specific disturbance right now, nor can we say something will come of this with any confidence whatsoever. But the reality is that it’s the time of year we watch there, and the models are producing noise there to a small extent. In other words, we’ll be looking there to see if anything can emerge to close September or start October. For now, no one need be worried at all.

North Carolina & Virginia coastal storm

A storm system deemed non-tropical is moving ashore in North Carolina and Virginia today. We’ve had wind gusts since midnight as high as 50 mph in spots, including Duck, NC and Cape Henry, VA.

Wind gusts in excess of 45 mph have occurred in several spots since midnight in northeastern North Carolina and the Virginia Tidewater. (NOAA)

In addition to the wind, we’re seeing coastal flooding, with the highest tide occurring later today.

Tidal flooding is likely, with major tidal flooding this evening along the tidal James River. (NWS Wakefield, VA)

None of the current tidal forecasts look like records, but they should at least be near the higher values seen with passing storms this year and last year. Rain won’t help matters, with heavy rainfall compounding drainage issues in areas with tidal flooding. A slight risk (2/4) for flash flooding is in place today in southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina, along with flood watches.

Flood watches remain in effect today and this evening south and southeast of Richmond. (NWS Wakefield)

Definitely a day to take it easy in this part of the world, watch for flooding, and never drive through flooded roadways. The Virginia Tidewater is one of the most vulnerable locations in the country for coastal flooding, and with a combination of sea level rise and land subsidence, this will continue.

Mario’s impacts to California

With Mario slowly lifting north, the overall weather pattern off the West Coast will favor tropical moisture being funneled northward around the east side of a dominant upper level low pressure system. As this happens, moisture will surge into California later this week bringing a good chance of localized heavy rain, thunderstorms, or possibly dry lightning.

Atmospheric moisture anomalies (PWATs) over California and Arizona and Nevada through the week increase dramatically. (Pivotal Weather)

While the rain could produce localized flash flooding, it will be interesting to see if dry thunderstorms play a role here also. The risk of dry lightning looks highest Wednesday night into Thursday, especially north of Los Angeles, up into San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara and northward into the Bay Area.

There may be more to come heading into next week with Pacific Invest 96E possibly playing a role in that. For more details on the situation in California, I strongly encourage checking out (and subscribing to) Daniel Swain’s Weather West blog.

Modest Atlantic development possible, while Mario will aid in SoCal storm chances later this week

September 15, 2025 at 7:45 amSeptember 15, 2025 at 7:45 am by Matt Lanza

In brief: The tropical wave in the central Atlantic is becoming more likely to develop over the next few days as it moves west northwest across the Atlantic. No land concerns are expected right now. Meanwhile, Pacific Tropical Storm Mario is likely to spread thunderstorm chances across Southern California later this week. We also check in on the Dakotas which had a mini tornado outbreak on Sunday.

Atlantic tropical wave

The wave we’ve been talking about since last week in the middle of the Atlantic looks pretty decent this morning. It’s certainly better looking than the previous wave we were tracking out there.

This wave now has 80 percent odds of development per the NHC, and I imagine this will get tagged as an Invest within the next day or so. Whereas the previous wave we tracked out here had high development odds and failed to make it, this one has much less of an “all or nothing” chance to develop. There is strong model agreement in some development by as early as Wednesday or Thursday (shown).

Strong model agreement that by mid to late week we have a tropical depression forming in the central Atlantic. (Google Weather Lab)

Notice that this system is already at a fairly moderate latitude by mid to late this week, and with it continuing west northwest, we should see this pass fairly well north of the Caribbean islands. From there, it seems as though it will either curve back north and northeast out to sea, or it will continue west northwest to the north of the islands, sort of in the fashion of Hurricane Erin earlier this season, particularly if it’s on the weaker end of the spectrum. The most likely outcome is some loosely organized storm turning out to sea. But for folks in Bermuda, it probably makes sense to keep a side eye on this one through the week, unlikely as it would be to impact the island.

Generally speaking, while this is the most interesting item we’ve had in what seems like weeks in the Atlantic, it’s thankfully not a serious land threat at this point.

What’s next in the Atlantic?

The background state of the Atlantic may revert back to hostile again after about September 20th, meaning that we’re probably going to continue to see systems struggling for the end of September. Probabilities for tropical development are not exactly strong looking outside of that one tropical disturbance in the middle of the Atlantic.

ECMWF Weekly model odds of tropical cyclones for the end of September showing generally below average development odds beyond the central Atlantic wave. (ECMWF)

In fact, if anything, they’re below average off Africa and below average off the Southeast coast. I do suspect we’ll begin to see more noise in the southwest Gulf or western Caribbean, as is typical for late September and October, but aside from that, it’s becoming apparent that this is probably going to end up being one of the more subdued hurricane seasons in recent memory. Of course, one bad outcome in early to mid-October can change the whole perception, but we currently don’t see anything else out there.

Tropical Storm Mario

In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Mario was declared dissipated this weekend, but it turns out the princess was just in another castle. So, Mario is back to life.

Mario should continue off to the northwest, eventually succumbing to King Koolpa, as sharply cooler water awaits it to the north.

Mario’s tracks from various models plus water temperatures turning sharply cooler after the next 24 hours. (CyclonicWx)

So why am I taking up virtual oxygen talking about a storm that will remain offshore and dissipate. Besides the ability to add Mario puns to the post, the moisture from Mario is going to play a role in the weather in California later this week, with showers and thunderstorms likely to infiltrate from the south, particularly in SoCal. In addition to the potential for locally heavy rainfall in Southern California, there could also be some isolated dry lightning issues with respect to fire starts in parts of the interior. The entire region is under a marginal (1/4) risk for locally heavy rainfall on Thursday.

Some locally heavy rain in addition to dry lightning concerns will permeate SoCal later this week. (NOAA WPC)

Rainfall amounts will be minimal in most places, but there will be areas that see a solid half-inch to 2 inches of rain, which could cause some flash flooding in spots.

North Dakota ‘naders

Quite a day yesterday in the Dakotas. Historically, not a tornado-prone location in September (there have been only one or two historical noted reports of tornadoes in this corridor of the Dakotas since at least 1950 in September), there were nearly 20 reports of tornadoes on Sunday from at least 4 tornadoes. Reports ranged from near Mobridge, SD through Bowman, ND, Golden Valley County, and Hettinger, ND.

The National Weather Service office in Bismarck is looking for reports from yesterday across the corridor in northwest South Dakota and western North Dakota. Certainly, there were a number of chasers on these storms. But overall, this was a bit of an impressive, somewhat surprising September event this far north.

Development odds increasing with next Atlantic wave, but concerns for impacts are not increasing

September 12, 2025 at 8:15 amSeptember 12, 2025 at 8:15 am by Matt Lanza

In brief: The tropical Atlantic has a number of items but only one really with a chance to develop much. No threats to land at this point either. Aside from that, there’s not a whole lot to say right now through about the 25th. Heavy rain and flooding chances visit South Florida and the southern Rockies today and tomorrow.

Atlantic tropics

The satellite picture over the Atlantic looks pretty noisy, but in reality only one item is truly a development candidate.

The Atlantic is noisy but not busy. (College of DuPage)

There is a cool front draped from near Florida into the Atlantic. You always watch these sorts of boundaries for any development, but there’s nothing imminent, and anything would likely track east or northeast out to sea. The big area of storms you see over the central Atlantic is an upper-level low pressure system, so that won’t develop. There’s an active tropical wave moving into the Lesser Antilles today, bringing some showers and storms but no development odds. And then there’s a broad tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic off Africa that’s now up to 40 percent odds of development as it moves into the open Atlantic this weekend and next week.

Odds of development are slowly increasing in the eastern Atlantic. (NOAA NHC)

There is decent model support still for this to develop, and this wave will have a slightly more supportive background state in the Atlantic to work with as it moves west and west-northwest heading toward next week. This is probably a more legitimate candidate to develop than Invest 91L was a week or two ago. That said, it too will be fighting both dry air and wind shear in its neighborhood as it comes across. For now, I would not expect quick, strong development, but as has been the case with almost every system this year, a slow, uneven development pace. Not much has changed in terms of track, as Eric showed yesterday. We’ll keep watching, but at this point, this system is not a real serious concern.

Beyond that, who is next? Great question. We are seeing noise from the GFS model beginning to stir up the Central American Gyre (CAG) late in the period. That’s a climatological quirk of the model, where it tends to gravitate toward development in that region, whether realistic or not. In this case, there’s not a whole lot we can truly say. If you go by the Euro ensemble (like below), you see that surface pressure is currently forecast to be higher than normal, typically not a signal for development.

The Euro ensemble currently shows generally higher than usual surface pressure in the CAG and Caribbean regions after day 10, which would indicate lower than usual tropical development chances. (Tropical Tidbits)

But that’s 12 to 13 days away, so a lot can change. The main takeaway for me as a forecaster right now? There’s not a particularly strong signal for anything else through September 25th. We’ll see if that continues.

Flood chances

Elsewhere, not a whole lot to discuss weather-wise right now. There is some flash flood risk both in South Florida and in the Southern Rockies today.

In Florida, showers and storms will move along slowly the next couple days, bringing a chance for as much as 3 to 4 inches of rain in spots in a worst-case scenario.

In the West, the risk is on burn scars in particular, with scattered showers and storms likely today and tomorrow across southern Colorado and New Mexico, where flood watches are posted.

The heavier rain risk shifts into the Plains this weekend.

As we hit the statistical peak of hurricane season, we find ourselves in a weird position

September 9, 2025 at 5:14 pmSeptember 9, 2025 at 5:14 pm by Matt Lanza

In brief: Why is the tropical Atlantic hitting the historical peak of activity with not a wave to be found? We explain the details below, but it looks quiet for the next 7 to 10 days. Beyond that, risks will surely increase a little but how much so remains a topic of uncertainty.

Happy Tuesday evening everyone. Late today due to participation in the National Weather Association’s 50th anniversary meeting in Huntsville, Alabama, a fine city. But I wanted to catch you up on the historical peak of hurricane season.

Tropics outlook

The outlook is the “not stonks” meme for those of you familiar with internet culture.

I mean, truly, it’s just quiet as could be. Now, it does appear we may get a wave in about 7 days in the open Atlantic that could develop. But that’s the only game in town for the next 10 days it would appear.

The next wave will emerge off Africa in a few days and may develop in 7 to 9 days in the open Atlantic. (Weathernerds.org)

An upper low in the central Atlantic, known as a “TUTT” is imparting shear on basically anything that comes off Africa, so they instantly hit a hostile environment. Additionally, there is a lot of drier air in the open Atlantic, which is not helping anything. TUTT lows drag down drier air from the subtropics into the tropics. A lack of instability, drier air, and shear are all decimating any chance at development right now. Climatology is as good a guide as anything when you look at seasonal predictability and timeframes for activity, but if the key ingredients aren’t there, they aren’t there. The cookbook recipe may say that the cake needs flour, butter, and eggs. But if you leave the flour and butter out, you aren’t baking a cake using that recipe.

Strong wind shear is hampering development, in addition to other factors. (Tropical Tidbits)

In addition to this, in the western Atlantic there is high wind shear as well. So we have a number of highly problematic factors right now as it relates to tropical development. Good for almost everyone!

Now, after 10 days the forecast in the Atlantic seems to favor a slightly more favorable shift for tropical activity. At least we should see more instability out there. That being said, I have seen a couple instances this hurricane season where tropical Atlantic conditions were expected to become more favorable “in 10 to 14 days,” and those conditions ultimately never materialize. That could be true here too. But given our streak of good luck, one figures it can only last so long. At the least, we will probably start to see GFS operational model runs showing tropical development in the Caribbean or Gulf soon. Please remember that this model has a very well-known bias to overdo that activity in most cases, particularly beginning in later September and October, as well as in May and June.

Bottom line: Enjoy the respite from peak season activity. But we still have about half the season’s activity in front of us historically. We’ll keep you posted.