Matt Lanza

Caribbean development odds slowly increasing as we exit October

Headlines

  • Development odds are increasing in the Caribbean.
  • Slow development is possible in about 3 to 5 days with a slow west or northwest movement.
  • Interests in Central America, Mexico, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Caymans should continue to monitor development closely.
  • U.S. impact risks remain quite low due to cooler water in the Gulf and wind shear.

Caribbean development odds inching up

The system that could develop in the Caribbean over the next several days is up to 60 percent today, as the forecast continues to look a touch more bullish on development.

The NHC is slowly boosting odds of development in the Caribbean today. (NOAA NHC)

Back on Tuesday, we noted that it would probably move north or west from where it gets going, and today the NHC basically says the same thing. The upper pattern is favoring something a little anomalous for November, as most often, systems will move north or northeast from the Caribbean this time of year.

Anyway, we have at least loose model agreement almost across the board today that something should get going in the western or west-central Caribbean in about 3 to 5 days. In fact, looking at the Euro ensemble, we can see a clear development signal in the Caribbean by Sunday.

European ensemble on board with tropical development in about 3 to 4 days, much like most other modeling. (Tropical Tidbits)

There will be a number of factors in play that will impact the strength and track of this system. First off, notice that there is also a low pressure signal on the north side of Cuba or Hispaniola. That low-probability system could have an impact on how shear impacts the Caribbean disturbance. Initially, high pressure over Florida and the eastern Gulf will likely help steer this system slightly to the west. Over time, that high pressure system may shift east a bit to focus more over Florida or the Bahamas. This could open the door to more of a northwest or northerly motion into the Gulf from this system.

The upper air pattern will favor a westerly and perhaps eventually a northwesterly motion to this system in the Caribbean. (Tropical Tidbits)

You may look at that outcome and say, “Oh no, here we go again.” But the situation in November is generally much different than that of October. While the Gulf is generally warmer than normal, it has cooled a good deal in the last month.

The Gulf has cooled off a good deal over the last 30 days. (StormVista Weather Models)

So we aren’t dealing with the precursor setup that we were with Helene or Milton. Secondly, wind shear tends to be quite aggressive in November. The forecast of wind shear in the northern and western Gulf is quite significant next week, with high shear in those locations.

A lot of wind shear separates a potential disturbance in the southern Gulf or northwest Caribbean from the U.S. Mainland. (Tropical Tidbits)

That said, any kind of development is worth noting, particularly for folks in Mexico (the Yucatan), Cuba, Jamaica, or the Cayman Islands. And I would encourage those areas to watch this system closely, especially given that the Caribbean remains very warm and has barely cooled off in the last 30 days. For folks in the U.S., this is unlikely to cause major heartburn, but it probably remains worth watching at least until we have a better sense of how things will unfold. For now, it remains nothing of serious concern for the Gulf Coast.

More this weekend.

Caribbean development odds around 50-50 over the next week, as we look to open November on an active note

Headlines

  • Tropical development odds are close to 50/50 in the Caribbean over the next week.
  • Initially, if anything develops, it is unlikely to move a whole lot, rather just sitting over the Caribbean.
  • Eventually, we may see a slow west or west-northwest movement.
  • Interests from Central America through the Caribbean should monitor updates on this.

Apologies for the lack of post yesterday, but I was preoccupied with some other things most of the day. Let’s get into things this morning.

The NHC gives the western and central Caribbean about a 40 percent chance of development over the next week. (NOAA NHC)

Eyes on the western or central Caribbean

Development odds are officially up to about 40 percent now in the Caribbean over the next week, as it appears we will enter a somewhat more active period in the tropics for November. The first thing I think we can say with some confidence this week is that this is not going to be a quick process. If this develops into an organized tropical system, it will take its time. The most likely outcome is that whatever forms here is likely to kind of fester for several days before trying to develop. We can sort of see the beginnings of stuff over the Caribbean this morning.

Far from organization, what we have in the Caribbean are a couple “blobs” of thunderstorms around the periphery. Over time, we’ll see a slow focus toward more storms in the central or wester Caribbean. (Weathernerds.org)

We’ve got nascent thunderstorms all around the periphery of the Caribbean right now. But over time, we will probably see more thunderstorms focus themselves in the central or western Caribbean. This is what could fester its way into development this weekend or early next week.

What will probably end up happening is over the next week or so, we see this begin to pop up and fester in the Caribbean. Heading into the late weekend, high pressure over Florida and the Gulf and a second high pressure system just east of the islands will impart opposite movement on the disturbance, which basically cancels out. The steering currents shift to near zero. In other words, what starts to develop in the Caribbean will be unlikely to move a whole lot initially.

A map of the situation about 20,000 feet up on Sunday. Whatever tries to form in the Caribbean will likely only move very slowly, if much at all. (Tropical Tidbits)

Over time, high pressure in the Gulf will probably stay in place, while high pressure east of the islands weakens. This may allow for a very slow northwest or west movement within the Caribbean next week. Exactly what this means is somewhat unclear at this point but we have several days to watch this. I don’t believe we will see any marked organization of anything until at least Sunday or Monday. For now at least, I would not be too worried about this in the United States, but interests from Central America across the Caribbean should be checking back in with their sources every day or two for updates on this. We will obviously keep watching.

More to come tomorrow.

Beyond this area, there is not a whole lot to focus on at this point.

Caribbean development remains possible late next week, but don’t fall for GFS “scareicane” season

Headlines

  • Model “scareicane” season is in full force, with several unlikely GFS model outcomes showing up at times lately, a common late season bias of that model.
  • But, tropical development is looking more and more possible in the western or central Caribbean late next week or weekend.
  • Thank you to our Friday featured sponsor: Red and Black Banter!

Caribbean outlook

We continue to see at least hints of tropical development in the Caribbean in the next 8 to 10 days or so. This particular system caused a bit of a kerfuffle earlier this week when the GFS operational model, notoriously poor for handling tropical systems in the extended range showed a hurricane hitting the Florida Panhandle. Like a moth to a flame, the usual suspects on social media seeking engagement bait shared it with the masses under the veneer of either informing people of a low-probability outcome or just saying “wow.”

The last 10 GFS model runs as forecast for next Sunday. (Tropical Tidbits)

In reality, if you look at the last 10 GFS model runs, you can probably pick a point somewhere between the eastern Gulf and eastern Caribbean and it has been impacted by a modeled (read: not actual) storm. Again, the GFS has a notorious bias toward overdevelopment, particularly in the Gulf during the front and back ends of hurricane season. So it would be important to note that the likelihood of any given scenario is quite low.

In reality, here’s what we do know. We do know that the models are showing strong signals for development in the western or even central Caribbean now around next weekend. Here’s the European model for next Sunday evening.

The European ensemble model’s 50 members suggest some tropical development is a possibility in the western or central Caribbean. (Weathernerds.org)

The GFS ensemble’s 30 members also show this outcome potential.

Lower pressures show up on the GFS ensemble anywhere from Cuba through the central Caribbean next Friday. (Tropical Tidbits)

So both major model ensembles have a signal now. They’re both generally in the western or even central Caribbean with said signal as well. That’s really all we have to go on at this point.

Reading between the lines on various other data, there is support for a developing system in the same are from European AI modeling as well. That said, the overall setup is one that probably supports a system meandering within the Caribbean for a few days and then lifting north and northeastward into the Bahamas or Atlantic from this area. There’s a tremendous amount of wind shear in the Gulf, and I would not expect anything to make it there at this point in time. That said, we will continue to monitor the development risks and how they evolve over the weekend. We’ll check back in on Monday with the latest.

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Red & Black Banter: “We’re real sisters with real stories about real life. And we’re not claiming to be experts about anything. So, why are we sponsoring The Eyewall?“

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(Red & Black Banter)

It does speak to our mission. It was just noted yesterday that Russia has been leveraging recent hurricanes as an opportunity to continue propagating disinformation online. Much of what has been done here is in the realm of politics, which for everyone’s benefit we will not get into on our site. But there has been a significant uptick in misleading and flat-out false information spreading about how these storms form, how they move, so much so that NOAA even had to address it this week. It’s so important that you have trustworthy sources of information to turn to for extreme weather, like hurricanes.

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Calmer seas take us into the end of October in the Atlantic

Headlines

  • No tropical activity is expected over the next week in the Atlantic.
  • The first days of November remain likely to be our next window for possible development in the western Caribbean, but details are sketchy.

Quiet for now

As we begin to slowly hit the final weeks of hurricane season, things are behaving relatively normally right now. We don’t have any activity expected over the next week, and that should get us to the end of October with Oscar as the last used name on the list.

Caribbean noise remains

Modeling does continue to perk up the western Caribbean beginning later next week and into the early days of November, however. A sloppy plate of spaghetti exists on the GFS ensemble through the end of its run today, with numerous ensemble members trying to develop something in that region and either keep it buried there or lift it north-northeast toward Jamaica, Cuba, or Hispaniola.

Model noise continues to open November in the Caribbean. For now, it does not appear to be U.S. bound, but interests in the western Caribbean should monitor upcoming forecasts. (Weathernerds.org)

Now, the GFS model as shown above does have a tendency to get a bit overeager on the tails of hurricane season about development in the Caribbean. A bigger surprise would be if the model showed nothing here. That being said, this has some legs via broad background support for development over the western half of the basin, as well as some other less-robust but nevertheless present model support from the European model. I’ve written a lot and been quoted a good bit in other media publications about the increasing AI model usefulness we’ve seen this year. For what it’s worth, the AIFS too shows this kind of broad outcome right now, but it is being quite aggressive in pushing a cold front into the Gulf of Mexico around this time which is likely kicking this northeast and out to sea quickly. It’s more aggressive than the GFS and Euro with the front, so that will be something to monitor.

For now, we’ll keep babysitting and come back at you with more on Friday.