Potential Tropical Cyclone 22 has a narrow window to develop before tomorrow when it slams shut in the Atlantic, and today’s post covers Wednesday travel weather which looks good with a couple big exceptions.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 22
We were expecting that Potential Tropical Cyclone 22 would become Vince later today as it races northeast across Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas.
How to describe PTC 22? Quick and lower-end on the intensity scale. The main concern will be heavy rain as it races off northeast into the open Atlantic. (NOAA NHC)
But a look at satellite this morning suggests that 22 is still far from organized. The window for organization will remain open a bit longer before it slams shut, and 22 or Vince or whatever merges in with a non-tropical system in the open Atlantic, as it passes Bermuda.
PTC 22 lacks much organization whatsoever this morning, and it seems like getting to a true tropical storm will be an uphill battle. (Weathernerds.org)
So if PTC 22 were to become a tropical storm as it passes Jamaica, Cuba, and/or the Bahamas and Turks & Caicos Islands, how strong could it get? Not very. The ceiling on 22 is limited, probably to a minimal tropical storm. That said, it is going to bring a good deal of rainfall to the islands as it passes by, and as much as 8 additional inches could fall for portions of Jamaica or a bit more in southeast Cuba. As much as 4 to 8 inches or so will be possible in southern Haiti.
Rainfall from PTC 22 will be about 8 more inches in Jamaica, up to a foot or so in SE Cuba, and perhaps 8 inches or more in southern Haiti. (NOAA WPC)
So flooding is the primary concern with 22 as it trucks through the Caribbean and into the Atlantic today and tomorrow. With that, we suspect that the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will come to an unofficial close.
Thanksgiving Wednesday travel outlook
With a lot of people hitting the road next week for the Thanksgiving holiday here in the U.S., we thought it might be helpful to give you an initial read on what travel conditions may look like for Wednesday.
The forecast map for Wednesday shows a stormy Northeast US and southeast Canada, a quiet central and western US, and some scattered storms in Florida. (NOAA WPC)
So, right off the bat, travel in the West looks fine right now. No issues are expected Wednesday. The Central U.S. looks quiet as well. A cold front will deliver scattered thunderstorms to Florida, this after some potential severe weather on Tuesday in the South. But overall, other than some minor issues, the expectation is that any travel to or from Florida will be fine.
The trouble spot on Wednesday looks to be the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Canada, where a potent storm will bring a bunch of issues for Wednesday. Chief among those issues will be wind, which is likely to cause delays at Northeast hubs like Boston, the NYC metro airports, and perhaps Philly and DC. Conditions should gradually improve later in the day Wednesday it appears, but there may be cascading delays due to airline issues there. I would also watch Chicago for potential issues with wind, which can always impact the air travel system. Aside from wind, some heavy snow is likely in parts of Quebec and interior Ontario, and some lake effect snow is likely in the snow belts of Michigan and perhaps off Lakes Erie & Ontario as well.
So if your travel plans take you north and east of about Indiana, you’ll likely want to have a little extra patience this year.
Two separate systems are on the board, with one (non-tropical system) bringing heavy rain to Florida tomorrow and then heading off to the north, while another disturbance in the Caribbean has a chance to form before racing past Jamaica, Cuba, and Hispaniola later this week or weekend.
Florida flooding: Metro South Florida at risk for considerable flash flooding on Wednesday
Just a quick update this evening on what’s happening in the world of weather, and we’ll start in Florida. Areas just north of Miami have seen some heavy rainfall today, with two bullseyes of 4 inches or more, the first near Davie and the other around Pompano Beach, where over 5 inches has fallen.
Click to enlarge for impressive rain totals today north of Miami and west of Fort Lauderdale. (NOAA/RadarScope)
As showers diminish tonight, a quiet period will unfold before another, more widespread round of rain and storms tomorrow. This one will be capable of significant rain totals in excess of 4 to 6 inches to as much as 8 inches or even more tomorrow for parts of coastal, urban South Florida. Because of this, the NWS Weather Prediction Center has Miami-Dade, Broward, and portions of Palm Beach County under a moderate risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall and flooding risk on Wednesday.
A moderate risk (level 3 of 4) is posted for southeast Florida on Wednesday, as repeated rounds of heavy rainfall are possible, leading to more significant urban flooding. (NOAA)
Intriguingly (and somewhat confusingly), all of this may congeal into an area of low pressure off Florida’s east coast that has a low (albeit not zero) chance of developing into a tropical system as it races north and east. This is *not* the same system we’re watching in the Caribbean, but this one may produce a nor’easter type impact in eastern New England or Atlantic Canada by the weekend, including a chance of heavy snow on the back side of the storm for portions of Quebec, New Brunswick, or northern Maine.
Heavy snow is possible in portions of northern Maine and eastern Canada on the backside of this developing storm near Florida, as it comes north this weekend. (NOAA)
Tropical Update: Caribbean development remains possible later this week
Meanwhile, we continue to see at least the chance that a late season tropical system will form later this week in the Caribbean. The good news is that both the GFS and European model have tended to reduce the odds of anything significant developing.
Disorganized thunderstorms in the southwest Caribbean may develop into an organized system before it races north and northeast out to sea by the weekend. (Weathernerds.org)
So what was already a low chance of a significant storm is now quite low. Certainly heavy rain is possible, if not likely across the Caribbean, but getting this thing to depression status or even TS Vince, will take some effort. Can it get there? Sure, but I’m not sure it’s the most likely outcome. Regardless, interests in the central and western Caribbean should continue to monitor this thing until it passes.
Today’s post talks about the potential for a late season tropical system in the Caribbean this week, as well as a detailed look at polar opposite weather that’s causing trouble in Alaska lately.
Tropical update: Caribbean mischief may present itself this week
We’ve got ourselves a late season system to possibly monitor in the southwest Caribbean later this week.
The Southwest Caribbean is highlighted with 60 percent odds of development this week by the National Hurricane Center. (Tomer Burg)
Model guidance is pretty persistent in developing low pressure off the coast of Nicaragua or Costa Rica around Wednesday or Thursday. It would quickly move northeast or north-northeast toward Jamaica, eastern Cuba, or Hispaniola from there, before accelerating out into the open Atlantic, perhaps impacting Bermuda on the way out this weekend. This will all occur quickly.
The GFS (left) and Euro (right) offer two differing outcomes but the same broad idea for the potential track of low pressure out of the Caribbean. (Tropical Tidbits)
As is often the case this time of year, the GFS model is much more aggressive with this system than the European model. The GFS has the equivalent of a strong tropical storm or low-end hurricane racing northeast of Jamaica on Saturday, whereas the Euro is a bit slower and notably weaker. The Euro has had a slightly better track record in the Caribbean, but it’s still a good idea for eastern Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic to monitor this potential system in the coming 2 to 3 days. From there, the Bahamas, Turks & Caicos, and Bermuda should also keep tabs on things. Whatever happens will happen fast, as this thing is going to be hauling north-northeast, tracking from the deep southwest Caribbean on Wednesday or Thursday to past Bermuda by Sunday or Monday.
U.S. Weather this week: Stormy Gulf, wet West Coast
A storm system on the Gulf Coast over the next couple days will bring some moderate to heavy precipitation between Texas and Florida, with anywhere from 2 to 5 inches likely. The highest totals are likely near Mobile, AL and Pensacola, FL. Flooding isn’t expected to be a huge concern, as the entire region is in pretty serious drought, and if anything, this will be a mostly beneficial rainfall.
This week’s rainfall will be mostly minor, except on the Gulf Coast and in coastal California and the Cascades. (Pivotal Weather)
The West will see a few surges of moisture this week thanks to a storm sitting offshore of California. This is expected to bring moderate to locally heavy rain to coastal California and some snow in the Sierra.
Rain totals have come off some versus a few days ago in California, but a wet period is expected this week. (NWS Monterey/SF Bay Area)
Overall, this should be more of a periodic ramp up/ramp down type precipitation event for California, but the rain (and snow) will add up over time. About 1 to 3 inches of rain is possible on the coast, including both San Francisco and LA, with locally higher amounts in the mountains and perhaps a little less in San Diego. Flooding isn’t a major concern at this point, particularly as the forecast has trended a little less excited about things.
Flaked Alaska: Heavy snow causes familiar problems in Anchorage
We don’t often talk about Alaska for weather unless it’s due to the pattern up there impacting the pattern for the weather across the U.S. But it’s worth talking about what’s happened in parts of Alaska to start November.
Precipitation to start the month in Alaska has been extremely heavy, with over 200% of normal for the period in southern Alaska, including the Anchorage area. (Brian Brettschneider)
Anchorage, the largest city in Alaska, with a population near 300,000 has received nearly 30 inches of snow this month so far, most of it courtesy of an atmospheric river event last week. This is the snowiest start to November on record in Anchorage. I reached out to the authority on all things Alaska weather, Brian Brettschneider, and I asked him to put into context how this sort of big time snow fits the typical climatology for Anchorage.
Very deep snow on Bird Ridge today. A post-hole trail was broken to 1,950'. I extended it to 2,150' on snowshoes. It took 30 minutes to go that distance. Here the snow is *only* 3 feet deep. It was knee to waist deep that entire way. Impossible to walk without snowshoes. pic.twitter.com/rai9utVKyw
First, he tells me that the median snow depth for Anchorage around this time of year is about an inch or two. The snow depth there is around 2 feet, which only happens in maybe half of all winters at all there. “This snow will not fully melt out until April,” he says.
On top of that, this was a wet snow for Anchorage. What do we mean when we say “wet snow?” A number of factors play into what we call the “snow ratio,” or how much snow you would melt to get 1 inch of water. In general, colder and drier air masses produce higher snow ratios. It takes more snow to get that 1 inch of liquid. You see this a lot with lake effect snow. One inch of liquid may produce anywhere from 20 to 30 inches of dry, fluffy snow.
Warmer, more humid air masses tend to produce lower snow ratios, or situations where it does not take as much snow to produce an inch of liquid. A general rule of thumb, particularly on the East Coast, is that 10 inches of snow usually melts down to 1 inch of liquid. So the ratio is 10:1 (ten to one). In Anchorage, a colder and typically drier place, Brettschneider says that the average ratio is 17:1 typically. With this recent event, the snow ratio was 11:1. I wouldn’t call that “cement,” but that’s a very wet snow for Anchorage. Wet snow tends to be harder to move and clear, it can bring down trees and power lines, and it also causes significant issues on roadways as it will produce slush that can freeze into solid ice. This is one problem in Anchorage right now.
And it’s not a new problem either. Brettschneider said that it’s important to understand the current context of the situation in Anchorage. “Three rapid succession storms last December caused a month-long road-pocalypse around town. The state/city made it a priority to not let that happen again – yet here we are.”
The residents of Anchorage can decide if that’s the case. The second major multi-day snowstorm in Anchorage in less than a year is surely impressive. It’s also worth noting that despite the snow, it has not been cold in Anchorage, at least not compared to normal. “So far this month, the first 11 days are all warmer than normal in Anchorage – much warmer than normal,” per Brettschneider. It typically takes someone milder weather to produce this kind of snow in Alaska, as warmer air can hold more moisture.
On a serious note, the AP reports that four unhoused people died during the winter storm in Anchorage last week.
More snow is coming to Alaska today, including Anchorage.
The forecast through Tuesday afternoon in the Anchorage area calls for about another 6 inches of snow. (NWS)
As much as another half-foot or even a bit more of snow is possible in the Anchorage area today, with higher amounts in the Chugach Mountains east of the city. More snow is possible later this week.
Superfog, or near-zero visibility caused by the combination of fog and wildfire smoke has wreaked havoc on Louisiana recently, so we take a deep dive into how the term came about and why this is such a problem there this year.
Superfog: A super serious problem in Louisiana
If you’ve been paying attention to the news lately, particularly as it relates to weather, you’ve likely heard about “superfog” leading to a couple deadly traffic incidents in Louisiana. If you missed that news, here are a couple articles to catch you up.
So what’s the difference between regular fog and superfog? And why is it so problematic?
What is superfog?
The technical definition of “superfog” is a combination of smoke and water vapor that produces zero visibility over roadways. What sets it apart from regular dense fog? The smoke. “Water vapor that produces zero visibility” is usually just plain old fog. When you combine fog and smoke and get zero visibility, you get “superfog.”
You may say to yourself, “Self, I thought smoke and fog was known as ‘smog?'” You are correct. The difference is that smog typically results from manmade pollutants, whereas superfog is produced from “smoldering organic material” and has extremely low visibility.
So what's the difference between smog and super fog?
Smog is caused by pollution interacting with fog which can impact visibility & health.
Super fog is formed by the interaction of fog with smoldering organics such as brush, leaves & trees.
“Superfog” is not clickbait, a new term, nor is it a new problem. In fact, the South has been a notorious hot spot for superfog incidents for many, many years. This front page headline from the May 8, 2000 Biloxi Sun Herald reported on a similar incident on I-10 due to smoke from a prescribed burn mixing with fog.
The Biloxi Sun Herald after a May 2000 superfog event in southern Mississippi. (newspapers.com)
The origin of the term “superfog” itself seems to come from Achtemeier. As best as I can tell, he first formally coined the term in a 2001 abstract that I believe was intended for an American Meteorological Society meeting. So, I think Achtemeier is the Father of the term Superfog, and Hugh Mobley may be the originator of understanding its impact. Whatever the case, in this 2003 USDA Forest Service paper by Achtemeier, he does a good job explaining why the South is a hotbed for superfog events. And it appears that recent issues in Louisiana broadly fit the mold.
In his paper, Achtemeier notes a high number of prescribed burns that are done in the South. To my knowledge, the recent fires in Louisiana were not prescribed burns. But his other points stand. It’s a relatively humid period in the cool season right now, making fog more likely on the Gulf Coast. And this most recent marsh fire occurred very much at the wildland/urban interface in New Orleans East. So you have a number of people traveling in a smokey area, with conditions ripe for fog. From the paper, you can see imagery that shows the difference and uniqueness of superfog. Unlike regular dense fog with, say, visibility under a quarter-mile, superfog is literally zero visibility, often 10 to 20 feet or less. It’s easy to understand why that would lead to such severe outcomes on roadways. Anyway, if you want to better understand some of the initial hypothesis behind specific superfog development, that paper makes for an interesting read.
Why all of a sudden in Louisiana?
Louisiana is currently experiencing one of their worst droughts in recent memory.
While a new drought monitor update will be released later this morning, Louisiana is in just an exceptional and widespread drought. (US Drought Monitor)
Almost 70 percent of the state is covered in level 4 of 4 (exceptional) drought. It’s bad. And marsh fires have been happening for weeks from Cameron Parish in the southwest corner of the state east into the New Orleans area. Now, as fog season begins to ramp up on the Gulf Coast, we are seeing additional consequences of these fires.
If you want to look more specifically at Tuesday’s incident, you can at least pick out the fog easily on modeling. A forecast sounding, or vertical profile of the atmosphere from the NAM model averaged for the area just east of New Orleans at 7 AM on Tuesday shows what we call an inversion in the atmosphere about 500 to 1,000 feet off the ground.
A model forecast atmospheric sounding (vertical profile) from Tuesday morning east of New Orleans showed conditions ripe for the development of fog. (Tropical Tidbits)
What is an inversion? Normally, as you go up in altitude temperatures decrease. Inversions are places in the atmosphere where temperatures actually rise as you go up in altitude. In other words, you see warming in a slice of the atmosphere before temperatures begin to cool again. Inversions tend to suppress thunderstorms. During the storm season, we refer to these as “caps” or “capping” in the atmosphere. That inversion acts as a barrier to cloud-top growth, or vertical development. It also tends to act as a “lid” on the atmosphere, trapping any gunk underneath it near the surface. This can cause smog in cities and fog in cities and rural locations as well. In most cases, inversions tend to break as surface temperatures warm up during the day. But long-duration inversion events over days or worse with fog and severe smog problems will sometimes occur in Utah’s Wasatch Front in the winter months. There is also Tule fog in California’s Central Valley, which is common in the cool season.
In this case, a sharp, shallow inversion in a humid environment was able to lead to fog development outside New Orleans on Tuesday. The fog in the area of the fire was able to transition to a localized superfog event just east of New Orleans.
A cool front should push through most of Louisiana by early next week hopefully providing a respite from fog. But it does appear that another substantial period of humidity and fog risk may be possible later next week. The NWS in New Orleans has been all over this for awhile now and remains the best source for local information in that area.
