Idalia is heading to the ocean again, and it will continue offshore with diminishing rain and wind in the Carolinas overnight and a potential date with Bermuda late Friday or Saturday as a tropical storm.
Idalia should move offshore overnight and begin to head east, ending the rain and wind in the Carolinas. (NOAA NHC)
Tropical Storm Idalia: 60 mph maximum winds, moving NE 21 mph
What’s changed since early evening?
Idalia is headed for the exits with no real forecast changes of note.
Idalia’s rain continues over northeast South Carolina and much of eastern North Carolina, where flash flooding remains a possibility into the overnight hours. (College of DuPage)
Idalia is on its way out to sea. Heavy rain will continue over eastern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina into the night. Localized flash flooding remains a concern. Otherwise, the wind and surge aspect of Idalia should begin to level off. Rough surf, beach erosion, and rip currents will continue along much of the East Coast due to both Idalia and Hurricane Franklin. If you’re kicking off Labor Day weekend early, please keep that in mind on the Eastern Seaboard.
Again, to emphasize, Idalia is heading out to sea. It is unlikely to pivot back west toward Florida again. And even if it did do that, Idalia is not the same Idalia that it was this morning. This is a much more disheveled and disorganized storm. Conditions in the Atlantic are going to be absolutely raging with wind shear over the next few days, so we’ll see if it can even survive that. Bottom line: You don’t need to worry about a second act of Idalia right now.
For Bermuda? Idalia is worth watching over the next few days to see how it manages to navigate the Atlantic wind shear. A tropical storm impact could occur there as early as late Friday and linger into the weekend. I’m more concerned about the length of time and proximity Idalia may spend near Bermuda than the intensity of the storm right now, so we’ll see how this unfolds. Interests in Bermuda need to monitor this over the next few days.
After early next week, I cannot tell you where Idalia will go, except to say probably out to sea eventually. We’ll stay on top of it.
Our next update will be our regularly scheduled morning outlook on Thursday, where we’ll catch you up on what’s happening elsewhere in the Atlantic.
Idalia is now a tropical storm, racing off to the northeast and should emerge offshore tonight, where it will head east for several days before possibly impacting Bermuda.
Tropical Storm Idalia: 70 mph, moving NE at 21 mph
Idalia is no longer a hurricane, now a tropical storm, but still causing plenty of headaches as it comes northeast across Georgia and just about into South Carolina.
Idalia will head out to sea over the next few days. (NOAA NHC)
What’s changed since late morning
Idalia is now a tropical storm.
All warnings for Florida’s Gulf Coast have been discontinued.
Areas highlighted in orange have the best chance at tropical storm-force winds, while yellow areas may see some gusts up to tropical-storm force. (NOAA)
Idalia’s wind
Wind gusts up near 70 mph were recently reported near Savannah, GA, so Idalia still has some punch left. Power outage numbers are now up to around 500,000 in Florida and Georgia per poweroutage.us. Idalia will weaken a bit further as it moves northeast before getting back out over the Atlantic, but it will still be capable of 50 to 70 mph wind gusts over a wide area of Georgia, South Carolina, and parts of North Carolina.
Charleston is expected to record its highest tide level since November 2018 this evening. (NOAA)
Idalia’s surge
Major coastal flooding is expected in parts of South Carolina, with Charleston forecast to see their highest tidal level since November 2018 this evening, peaking near 8.7 feet. If that is achieved, it would be the seventh highest level recorded in Charleston since records have been kept.
Farther up the coast, Myrtle Beach is expecting moderate coastal flooding, while Wilmington, NC is expecting minor coastal flooding. Additional moderate flooding may occur on the mainland side of Pamlico Sound in North Carolina.
Peak storm surge expected this evening in the Carolinas, with residual high tides in Florida and Georgia. (NOAA NHC)
Idalia’s rainfall
Heavy rains continue along the path of Idalia.
Tropical Storm Idalia is spreading heavy rain north and east through the Carolinas now. Conditions will improve in Georgia this evening. (College of DuPage)
Pockets of flash flooding should occur in spots across the Carolinas this evening, with 6 to 8 inches possible in North Carolina and another 2 to 6 inches in South Carolina. River flood warnings will be needed for some of the hardest hit basins. A moderate (level 3 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall remains in effect for the Carolinas.
A tornado watch is in effect for the coastal plain of South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through 10 PM ET this evening. (NOAA SPC)
Idalia’s tornadoes
Isolated tornadoes remain possible, particularly south and east of where Idalia ventures, hence a tornado watch is in effect tonight for coastal South Carolina and a portion of North Carolina.
Idalia’s future track: Loop looks less likely
The forecast track for Idalia is coming into better focus now, and we can stop talking about the possible loop de loop back to Florida. Models are unanimous in taking Idalia out to sea for now, slowly but steadily.
Idalia is going to head out to sea. It may tap the brakes southwest of Bermuda, but it will eventually get there. (Tropical Tidbits)
If there is a risk with Idalia, it would be to Bermuda or for the very, very, very outside chance that it were to get pushed back toward the Northeast U.S. at some point. The latter seems highly unlikely right now, and the former (risk to Bermuda) is a low risk right now. Modeling agrees that Idalia should remain below hurricane intensity for now while it meanders offshore. We’ll keep eyes on this over the coming days however.
Regardless, Idalia will help keep surf rough and probably enhance the risk of rip currents up and down the U.S. East Coast, in concert with what’s left from Franklin.
Our next update will be a brief one after the 11 PM ET advisory package.
Editor’s note: Idalia made landfall with estimated 125 mph winds, making it a category 3 major hurricane
One-sentence summary
Idalia is about to make landfall as a category 4 hurricane in Taylor County, FL, with catastrophic storm surge in the Big Bend and wind, tide, and rain impacts spreading north into Georgia and the Carolinas later.
Idalia will track into Georgia and South Carolina today before exiting offshore. (NOAA NHC)
Hurricane Idalia: 130 mph, moving north-northeast at 18 mph
Idalia looks prepared to make landfall on the eastern side of Apalachee Bay in Taylor County or on the Taylor/Dixie County line.
What’s changed since late last night?
Idalia is now a category 4 major hurricane with 130 mph maximum sustained winds. It is nearing landfall. Because of Idalia’s fast forward speed, hurricane warnings are now in effect on the East Coast from just north of St. Simons Island, GA to Edisto Beach, SC. Storm Surge Warnings are also posted from St. Catherine’s Sound in Georgia to the South Santee River in South Carolina. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect north from Surf City, NC to the North Carolina and Virginia border.
Forecast tides in South Carolina are a little higher today.
An extreme wind warning is in effect for Taylor and portions of Dixie County, FL as Idalia approaches landfall.
Idalia’s surge
The storm surge forecast remains on track in Florida, with a little expansion of surge this morning forecast for the South Carolina coast, now up to 3 to 5 feet in the Charleston area.
Catastrophic storm surge is expected this morning in the Big Bend of Florida. (NOAA NHC)
With Idalia coming ashore in Taylor County in all likelihood, surge may be a bit under the forecast west of the Taylor/Jefferson County line. This is accounted for in the map above, but it may even drop off a bit faster than shown. Still, as much as 12 to 16 feet of surge should be in the process of rolling ashore in the Big Bend. Charleston’s forecast is now up to 8.5 foot tidal levels in the harbor.
Charleston should see tides into major flood levels, peaking around 8.5 feet. (NOAA)
This is now forecast to be up to about November 2021 levels and close to cracking Charleston’s top 10 list.
There has not been much change in Savannah this morning, with a 10.3 foot crest expected.
Idalia’s catastrophic category 4 winds will be in a small area but drive right into Perry, FL, while strong winds are likely to extend out from there into a secondary eyewall that will likely graze Tallahassee. (RadarScope)
Idalia’s wind
The core of Idalia’s category 4 winds, the real catastrophic winds will push into Taylor County, FL and right toward Perry, FL over the next hour or two. Those will cross I-10 near or west of Live Oak in all likelihood. Strong winds are likely in a secondary eyewall forming to expand Idalia’s wind field this morning. That will push inland on the west side of Apalachee Bay and come very close to Tallahassee.
Idalia’s wind field is expanding but the intensity will gradually lessen as Idalia push inland and weakens. Still, this storm will be capable of big wind and many power outages as it comes north and east.
Because of Idalia’s forward speed, strong damaging winds will expand into southeast Georgia, likely just east of Valdosta. Hurricane-force winds are possible into coastal Georgia and south of Charleston, SC. (NOAA)
The strongest winds will hopefully avoid Valdosta, but much of southeast Georgia will see very strong winds as Idalia races northeast. Hurricane-force winds will also be possible in southeast South Carolina.
Idalia’s tornadoes
A Tornado Watch is posted for most of North Florida and southeast Georgia through mid-afternoon.
Isolated tornadoes are possible on the east side of Idalia’s track. (NOAA SPC)
Tropical systems do produce isolated tornadoes, so this will be a possibility anywhere in the watch area.
Idalia’s rain
Idalia is expected to produce a narrow but lengthy corridor of 6 to 10 inches of rain into southeast North Carolina.
Idalia will produce a swath of 6 to 10 inches of rain into southeast North Carolina, likely causing flash flooding in spots as it comes northeast (NOAA)
Flash flooding is likely in spots as it comes northward.
Our next update will be posted around Noon ET with the latest on Idalia as it comes northeast.
Hurricane Idalia is expected to make landfall in the morning as a category 4 major hurricane, bringing catastrophic storm surge to the Florida Big Bend region and Apalachee Bay, an unprecedented storm in modern history for this region.
The forecast for Hurricane Idalia suggests at category 4 storm at landfall tomorrow morning in Apalachee Bay. (NOAA NHC)
Hurricane Idalia: 110 mph, moving North at 18 mph
As of the 11 PM ET advisory, Idalia is on the cusp of becoming a major category 3 hurricane. Idalia is beginning to take on “the look” when you look at satellite imagery. Unfortunately, if you’ve watched the Gulf since 2017, when a storm takes on “the look,” it usually means the forecast of a major storm with major impacts will verify. We’re in that boat tonight.
Hurricane Idalia is beginning to acquire “the look” we have come to know and dread in the Gulf of Mexico in recent years. (Tropical Tidbits)
What’s changed since late afternoon?
A few notable changes: First the storm track has shifted the landfall point even a little farther west, now in the middle of Apalachee Bay. This has implications on Tallahassee discussed below.
Second, storm surge heights have increased. They are now as high as 12 to 16 feet above ground level in the eastern portion of Apalachee Bay and the Big Bend. Basically St. Marks to Yankeetown is likely to be completely inundated with deep water. Surge heights are slowly being trimmed back on the southwest coast of Florida up through Tampa as Idalia accelerates north.
Surge forecasts have been added for North Carolina now, with perhaps as much as 2 to 4 feet in some of the mainland shores of Pamlico Sound, as well as near Cape Lookout.
Surge update
Catastrophic surge is expected in the Florida Big Bend. Not much else to say here. There’s been little change since earlier this evening in terms of this impact. The forecast has shuffled a bit with 12 to 16 feet of surge now as far west as the Wakulla/Jefferson County line, just east of St. Marks. We continue to believe this will come into an area with no real modern historic precedent of this level of hurricane hitting (best comp perhaps being in the late 1800s).
Storm surge is now expected to be as high as 12 to 16 feet above ground level in the eastern half of Apalachee Bay and the Big Bend, an absolutely catastrophic amount of water. (NOAA NHC)
This is the last warning folks in the relatively rural Big Bend have to get out. These smaller communities will need a lot of help in the days ahead.
Wind update
The core of strongest wind is expected to be just east of Tallahassee across much of the Big Bend into much of north-central Florida and far south Georgia. Live Oak, Lake City, Alachua, and Valdosta may all see significant hurricane-force winds. Considerable wind will also be possible as Idalia moves into Georgia, so communities like Waycross, Kingsland, or even Brunswick could see strong winds.
Purple, the area of worst wind potential may nudge a little left (west) depending on Idalia’s exact track. But much of the Big Bend and north-central Florida will see significant hurricane-force winds. (NOAA)
The exact location of these strong winds may maneuver a little west if Idalia’s track shifts any farther that direction.
Tallahassee
For the city of Tallahassee, the track of Idalia has not trended kindly today. The slight nudge west today has kept Tallahassee in play for the western eyewall of Idalia as it comes ashore. What does this mean? It means that most of the city will either see generic damaging winds (hurricane-force gusts, mostly) or sustained hurricane-force winds and widespread damage potential. There may even be a relatively noticeable east to west gradient of damage, with more of it on the east side and less to the west. We’ve gotten no real additional clarity tonight on exactly how close that will come, but suffice to say, it will be close.
Rainfall from Idalia
Idalia is expected to be a pretty healthy rainmaker as it comes north. Flood watches extend from Florida into North Carolina now. There will be corridor of 6 to 10 inches of rain up the coast, just inland, basically along and west of I-95, depending on exactly how Idalia tracks.
The rain forecast from Idalia is not significantly changed tonight, with 6 to 10 inches possible in interior south Georgia and South Carolina, as well as in portions of southeast North Carolina. (NOAA)
I think North Carolina bears some watching, as there is a sign in some modeling for an area of enhanced rainfall from about Cape Hatteras south and west onto the mainland near New Bern where amounts toward the higher end of the forecast range are possible. The Weather Prediction Center has a “moderate” risk (level 3/4) for this region for excessive rainfall and flooding for Wednesday.
The excessive rainfall outlook on Wednesday is at “moderate,” level 3 of 4, which means flash flooding is a good bet in some areas. I especially think SE North Carolina bears some watching tomorrow night. (Pivotal Weather)
Thankfully, Idalia should be moving offshore by Thursday morning, ending the rain threat in the Carolinas and Georgia.
As is always the case, isolated tornadoes do occur with landfalling tropical cyclones, and Idalia should be no different. The highest chances of a tornado would be in North Florida, coastal Georgia or coastal South Carolina.
Charleston, Savannah, and Jacksonville
We continue to monitor the risk of storm surge and coastal flooding in some of the larger metro areas on the Atlantic coast, in particular Charleston, Savannah, and Jacksonville.
For JAX, this should be hopefully mostly a nuisance event, with wind gusts to 50 mph and about 1 to 3 feet of surge. This would produce mostly minor to moderate flooding in the Jacksonville area.
In Savannah, winds could be stronger, as it will be closer to Idalia’s center when it comes by, so gusts of up to 70 mph are possible there. In addition, up to 4 feet of water above ground level is possible.
The Fort Pulaski tide gage, just downriver from Savannah is expected to peak with “moderate” tidal flooding levels. (NOAA)
The 10.3 foot forecast at the Fort Pulaski tide gage would be the highest since last November’s 10.41 foot level. This is associated with moderate coastal flooding.
In Charleston, the Harbor is still forecast to get to 8.3 feet, which qualifies as “major” tidal flooding. Of course, coastal flooding is a scourge in Charleston, and this level was achieved as recently as June of this summer.
Although tidal flooding is common in Charleston, with this forecast level being seen as recently as June, the heavy rain and wind may lead to slightly worse than usual impacts from this level of water. (NOAA)
Charleston should see wind gusts as high as 60 mph with Idalia as it passes by, which may in combination with heavy rain complicate drainage of water a bit, making this tidal level a little worse than what would normally be expected with 8.3 foot tides.
The second act
Once again, I just want to close out on this: Don’t worry about the second act of Idalia, as some models show it looping back toward Florida heading into next week. It’s simply not a relevant concern at the moment and the storm would likely be a shell of itself if it happened that way. We are not concerned right now about this coming to fruition in a serious manner. The focus should be on impacts tonight and tomorrow.
Our next post will aim to come at you around 7:30 AM ET Wednesday.
