Matt Lanza

Florida dealing with tornadoes and now storm surge as Milton is on final approach to the west coast

Headlines

  • Milton’s eyewall with powerful winds and a dramatic rise in water from storm surge is about to begin coming ashore between Saint Petersburg and North Venice.
  • Tampa Bay may empty out as it approaches (as seen in Irma and Ian), and you should not be anywhere near the bay, as water may come rushing back in quickly and without warning.
  • The worst surge will come dangerously close to moving into portions of Tampa Bay south through Venice.
  • Significant surge will continue building south of there to Fort Myers and on the east coast as well.
  • A historic tornado outbreak has been ongoing across the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and will continue a bit longer.
  • Flooding from another 10 inches of rain is likely in the northern half of the Peninsula.
  • Milton exits tomorrow to the east and out to sea.
Milton’s forecast takes it far away eventually. (NOAA NHC)

Hurricane Milton is gradually approaching the coast of Florida. It remains an unnervingly close call for Tampa Bay as every wobble makes a difference right now. But it appears the landfall window is between North Venice and Fort De Soto at the entrance to Tampa Bay. The worst of the surge and wind will probably impact the area between Tampa Bay and Venice, with significant surge to the south of there as well. The surge forecast has been adjusted somewhat today.

Storm surge is going to rapidly pick up over the next 2 to 4 hours. (NOAA NHC)

We still expect significant to borderline catastrophic flooding and inundation in some communities unfortunately. Surge values are currently about 1 to 4 feet on the west coast of Florida. Again, near and south of where this makes landfall will see a dramatic increase in water levels soon as that center approaches.

I can not say this loud enough: If water exits Tampa Bay as we saw with Ian and Irma, do not, I repeat, *do not* go into or near the bay to gawk. This one is coming in much closer to Tampa and it’s possible a wall of water comes rushing back in at some point. You will be trapped.

Milton is not as intense in terms of wind (now a cat 3 with 120 mph winds), but it has essentially doubled in size since this morning with tropical storm force winds extending out as much as 250 miles from the center. Hurricane force winds remain confined mostly to that eyewall that is preparing to come onshore near Sarasota and Bradenton. Conditions will get very, very nasty over the next 2 to 4 hours.

Hurricane Milton’s vicious northern eyewall is preparing to come ashore now near and north of Sarasota with powerful wind and a dramatic increase in storm surge. (RadarScope)

This is the time where you shelter in place and hope for the best. We certainly hope for the best for folks in Florida too.

Milton has been a prolific tornado producer in Florida today.

A map of all tornado warnings issued through 4:40 PM ET in Florida today. (Iowa State Mesonet)

It will take time to weed through the warnings, reports, and damage, but I am certain we will have one of Florida’s most significant tornado outbreaks when all is said and done. Additional tornadoes are possible as the center moves across the state.

Flooding rains continue also, with as much as 2 to 5 inches so far across Florida and a lot more to come.

Rain totals so far today from Milton. (NOAA NWS)

Those rains continue tonight, and we’ll see flooding expand and worsen across the northern half of the Florida Peninsula. As much as another 10 inches or so is possible.

Milton will exit and turn into an extratropical storm (basically akin to a nor’easter or generic “coastal” storm) tomorrow as it rushes out to sea. We can then begin to assess the damage. All the best to our Florida friends, and we’ll have another brief update either mid-evening or in the morning.

Milton begins to bear down on Florida while growing further in size

Headlines

  • Milton remains a powerful category 4 hurricane, expanding in size.
  • The track should take it somewhere between Tampa Bay and Cape Coral late this evening.
  • Widespread impacts are expected on the west (and east) coasts of Florida, as well as inland with power outages, flooding from rainfall, wind damage, and storm surge.
  • The worst of the surge will impact near and just south of where Milton’s center crosses the Florida coast. A 10 to 15 foot surge is likely in that nearby area, with significant surge beyond that as well, down to Fort Myers Beach or even farther south.
  • 12 to 16 inches of rain will cause significant flash flooding between Tampa and Daytona.
  • Isolated tornadoes are possible.

Hurricane Milton is beginning to impact Florida directly now. Outer rain bands are moving ashore, and the bands offshore definitely look pretty nasty with possible waterspouts. We’re also beginning to see how Milton’s asymmetry will lead to substantially higher rain totals along and north of the path of the center.

Hurricane Milton is beginning to accelerate toward Florida while becoming a larger storm in size. (Tropical Tidbits)

The winds are currently down to 155 mph, making Milton a top end category 4 storm. Hurricane-force winds extend out 30 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend out 125 miles, still reasonably close in size to yesterday’s reports. Further expansion of the wind field is expected today. Basically, as Milton’s top end winds drop, it’s moderate to strong winds will expand to cover a larger area. It’s a poisonous trade off, and while it’s accurate to say that Milton will “weaken” today, it’s also accurate to say it is becoming somewhat more dangerous.

Hurricane Milton is currently following the NHC path closely, which will bring it uncomfortably close to Tampa Bay and probably ashore between Tampa Bay and Cape Coral tonight. (NOAA NHC)

The track is pretty straightforward. Milton will continue northeast over the next 12 hours before beginning to turn more to the east-northeast as it crosses Florida. Milton is going to undergo what we call extratropical transition. Basically, since we’re in autumn, with a big cold front sweeping in, Milton will be absorbed into the jet stream.

Here’s how Milton will look 20,000 feet up as it gets intertwined with a cold front and ushered out to sea. (Tropical Tidbits)

On the one hand, this isn’t great because it will lead to an expansion in the wind field as it crosses Florida, and it will also lengthen the wind, as the backside of the storm will continue to have strong wind moving across Florida. On the other hand, this will help the post-storm recovery weather be somewhat cooler and less humid. That cannot go without saying.

Bottom line: A major hurricane with a growing wind field and long duration of wind will be likely tonight and tomorrow morning across Florida, particularly near and north of the track.

Will Milton avoid the Tampa Bay disaster? It’s possible. Most modeling currently takes it south of Tampa Bay, uncomfortably close and within the “margin of error” but still skewed to the south. Here’s the GFS operational forecast model trend of the last several runs, with the “X” indicating Milton’s actual center point.

The GFS model has been aggressive with a hit on Tampa Bay, but it’s verifying slightly farther south than the model expected. This opens the door to a landfall between Sarasota and Cape Coral, but it does not rule out Tampa; a couple wobbles north and it’s back on track toward there. (Brian Tang/SUNY Albany)

You can see how Milton has begun to drift off course relative to most recent GFS runs, or at least on the south side of guidance. I chose the GFS because it has been rather consistent in showing a hit very near Tampa Bay. These trends indicate that there is some potential the landfall point may be coming south. Would I sound an all-clear for Tampa? Not at all; this is still within the margin of error as I said. But if you want good news in Tampa specifically, this may be it. Unfortunately someone has to get the surge. And the area between Sarasota and Cape Coral may be at highest risk now for a 10 to 15 foot surge. The peak surge forecast has nudged southward a bit today.

A peak surge of 10 to 15 feet is currently expected between Anna Maria Island and Boca Grande, but there is some risk that could nudge even a little farther south today. (NOAA NHC)

A very bad storm surge will come in on the Suncoast and south to the Lee Island Coast. Where the worst comes in will be dictated by exactly where the center goes, something we’ll monitor today.

A high risk (level 4/4) of excessive rain and flooding is posted for most of central Florida, including the entire I-4 corridor, Daytona, Tampa, and Sarasota. (NOAA WPC)

Heavy rains of 12 to 16 inches continue to look likely across the I-4 corridor which will produce significant, possibly damaging flash flooding. A high risk (level 4/4) is posted for this region for that flooding. Additionally, isolated tornadoes will be possible.

Bottom line: Milton remains a serious threat to cause significant damage and disruption on the west-central coast of Florida with flooding rains and power outages inland. We will update again around or just before the 5 PM ET advisory.

Milton is a category 5 storm again as it barrels toward Florida

Headlines

  • Milton has returned to category 5 intensity and increased in size by 33 percent since this morning.
  • Landfall is still expected late tomorrow night on Florida’s west coast. Some track adjustments were made perhaps nudging it a bit to the south today.
  • Surge remains the biggest concern with terrible surge expected between Sarasota and Port Charlotte and very bad surge, still just under Ian levels south of there through Fort Myers. But it’s getting a bit too close for comfort.
  • Tampa’s surge impacts will depend on the exact track of the storm, which remains tenuous.
  • Strong winds will pound the coast and inland areas as well with widespread power outages likely, particularly near and north of the center.
  • Flooding rains will fall along and north of the center’s track, right along the I-4 corridor where up to 12 to 16 inches of rain may occur.
  • East coast locations will see impacts as well with hurricane warnings now posted from the First Coast through the Space Coast to the Treasure Coast.

Hurricane Milton has fluctuated back upwards this afternoon, and it has once again attained category 5 intensity.

Milton is just an absolute textbook storm off the Yucatan of Mexico. (Colorado State CIRA)

Maximum sustained winds are in a small area near the center as strong as 165 mph now. Hurricane-force winds extend out 30 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend out 140 miles. This is now about 33 percent larger in size than it was this morning and 75 percent larger than yesterday. This was why we were concerned. Milton is now a formidable storm in terms of size as well. And it will grow further before landfall tomorrow night.

Milton’s track is virtually unchanged from previous forecasts. (NOAA NHC)

There was potentially (and I say potentially VERY cautiously here) good news for Tampa Bay today. Milton wobbled off track some to the southeast. This has now shifted the track guidance somewhat to the south. While this may be good news for Tampa ultimately, it is not good news for places like Sarasota or Venice or possibly Charlotte Harbor. Those areas may now be closer to maximum storm surge. Charlotte Harbor for instance has seen its maximum potential storm surge increase from 6 to 10 to 8 to 12 feet. This is now at Ian levels in some spots there. Surge of 8 to 12 feet is now also expected as far south as Bonita Beach. This is shy of Ian levels, but it’s getting a little more uncomfortable.

Surge forecasts have increased in portions of the Lee Island coast, still shy of Ian levels in most cases but uncomfortably high nonetheless. (NOAA NHC)

If you live south of Venice and north of Naples, have yourself ready to bolt tomorrow morning toward Miami if this thing keeps nudging southward. It is getting a bit more uncomfortably close than hoped.

For Tampa, you just need to watch and hope for the best now. It remains entirely possible that Milton comes back north some, in which case a Tampa Bay landfall and catastrophic surge is even more in play. It’s just simply too close for comfort still.

For everyone on the Florida west coast south of Clearwater, this will be a pretty rough storm in terms of wind and surge. If you have not evacuated and are in a zone ordered to do so, please reconsider, and please check on anyone who may not be able to evacuate or is being stubborn about it. Surge is the deadliest concern. In most cases, hiding from the wind will be the best course of action elsewhere.

Hurricane warnings have been expanded today to include all of St. Lucie County. Hurricane watches have been hoisted southward to the Palm Beach County line. Tropical storm warnings now include the Bahamas, all of South Florida, and much of the Georgia coast. Storm surge warnings have also been expanded accordingly, and there’s now the expectation of a 3 to 5 foot surge from Sebastian Inlet north to near Jacksonville. If Milton’s track slips farther south, this surge would also slip farther south, so folks from Palm Beach County up through St. Lucie County should be monitoring trends closely.

We get a lot of questions about wind risk for XYZ. Consider this map (which you can enlarge) a reasonable worst case scenario for what peak winds could be at a given location.

Click to enlarge this map of the NWS Wind Risk outlook from Milton showing hurricane force winds (red and purple) and tropical storm force winds (yellow and orange). (NOAA NWS)

The south side of the storm will be primarily surge and some wind. The north side of the storm will be wind, some surge, and torrential rainfall. A high risk of flooding continues to be in effect tomorrow in Florida along and north of I-4.

Rainfall is forecast to be torrential along the I-4 corridor with 12 to 16 inches possible as Milton plows through. (NOAA WPC)

This has slipped a bit south since this morning also, and now the heaviest rain risks align with the I-4 corridor almost perfectly. Any further southward adjustment will take the heavy rain farther south also.

And of course, isolated tornadoes are always possible with storms of this size and intensity.

The bottom line: A complex, multi-hazard storm is headed to Florida. It will impact the west coast hardest but it won’t spare the east coast entirely. The biggest concern is storm surge, which is likely to be worst between Sarasota and Fort Myers. For areas south it’s still shy of Ian levels, but it’s nudging ever closer. For areas between Sarasota and Cape Coral, it will likely be worse than Ian. Again, this is a dangerous, historic storm, and it’s one that you should not stick around to observe and ride out if that’s possible. We will update again tomorrow morning or late tonight if the track shifts significantly.

Milton growing in size, fluctuating in intensity, and still targeting Florida’s west coast with a major hurricane strike tomorrow

Headlines

  • Milton will fluctuate in intensity over the next 18 to 24 hours, perhaps once again becoming a category 5 storm for a time today.
  • Milton is growing in physical size, with an expanding wind field likely to help lock in significant storm surge when it makes landfall tomorrow night.
  • For areas between Tampa Bay and Venice, this may be your version of Ian, with devastating storm surge and strong winds.
  • For Tampa Bay, the track is still much too close for comfort with equal odds of it going just north of the bay (bad) or just south of the bay (bad, but less bad)
  • Major freshwater flooding is a possibility due to 10 to 15 inches of rain that may fall near and north of the I-4 corridor, including Tampa, Orlando, and Ocala.
  • Inland areas will see hurricane force winds and potential for substantial power outages.
Hurricane Milton is still expected to come ashore tomorrow night somewhere between Cape Coral and Cedar Key. (NOAA NHC)

Hurricane Milton bottomed out sometime yesterday evening with a sub-900 mb pressure, the type of storm we have only seen a handful of times historically. Tentatively it is the 5th strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic, but we’ll see what happens from here and in the postseason analysis before that gets firmed up. But the takeaway: Milton is not just a powerful storm, it is a historic one.

Milton underwent an eyewall replacement cycle overnight. In a nutshell: That’s when a hurricane pauses its intensification, takes a breath, and typically grows a bit in size. Milton did just that, knocking its winds back to 145 mph, raising its pressure, but also expanding its tropical storm force wind field from 80 to 105 miles. Milton will continue to grow in physical size as it comes northeast today and tomorrow.

The sun rises on Hurricane Milton Tuesday morning. (College of DuPage)

Milton will continue on a northeasterly path now. This will carry it into the west coast of Florida tomorrow night. Exactly where in Florida it crashes ashore is still to be determined. Modeling seems to be honing in on the area between Clearwater and Sarasota, but given the typical error 36 to 48 hours ahead of landfall, there’s still a wide berth here.

For Tampa Bay’s surge zones: This remains much, much too close of a call to risk riding out. Is there a chance this goes just south of Tampa? Yes. In that case, Milton will probably be damaging but not devastating specifically in Tampa Bay. But you’re talking literally a few wobbles or something like 5 miles of track shift, things that cannot be predicted making that difference. Assume the worst, hope for the best.

The surge forecast remains about 10 to 15 feet in Tampa Bay and just south, including Sarasota, Longboat Key, and Venice. (NOAA NHC)

For areas south of Tampa Bay, things are locking in now unfortunately. This includes Sarasota, Venice, Longboat Key, and elsewhere. This may be your version of Hurricane Ian. The surge south of there into Charlotte Harbor, Punta Gorda, Cape Coral, and Fort Myers will be bad, at 6 to 10 feet, which is significantly lower than was seen in Ian but will be quite significant on its own. The bottom line: This is a terribly ugly storm surge forecast up the coast from where Ian hit in 2022. We cannot stress enough to try to evacuate if ordered, check on neighbors, family, and friends in the region, and hope that somehow or some way this is not as bad as it looks. I fear that is getting harder and harder to occur.

In terms of intensity, we may see Milton make a run back to a category 5 today. The next 18 to 24 hours will probably see some fluctuations in intensity, as is typically the case in hurricanes of this intensity. We’ll probably see the intensity wane some tomorrow, but because the storm will compensate by growing in size, it will be very, very, very bad. Milton should arrive on the Florida coast as a borderline cat 3 or 4 storm in terms of wind, with a surge that will punch above the weight class, closer to cat 4 or 5. Milton is almost certainly not going to “weaken” enough before landfall to matter in terms of impacts.

A high risk (level 4/4) is now posted for flooding rainfall in Florida tomorrow near and north of the I-4 corridor, including Tampa, Orlando, and Ocala. (NOAA WPC)

One thing that seems assured regardless of exact track? Rain. Flooding rainfall is likely near and north of the I-4 corridor tomorrow as Milton moves in. A high risk (level 4/4) has been posted for the area between Tampa and Daytona north to about Ocala. Moderate risks (which are also usually not good) surround this north to Jacksonville and Fernandina Beach and south between Fort Myers and Vero Beach. Total rainfall could be as much as 10 to 15 inches in the high risk area, enough to cause significant, damaging freshwater flooding.

For interior locations, I know this is a scary storm too. But while it will be damaging inland, the hope is that it’s manageable by sheltering in place. If you’re visiting, most hotels and resorts should be pros with this and able to keep you safe. If you live there, winds of 65 to 75 mph sustained and gusts in the 80s or 90s will be unpleasant but as long as you shelter in a sturdy home, you will be fine. Power loss will probably be the most significant problem there, with perhaps a few days without power. Just make sure you’re prepared for that. Run from the water, hide from the wind. East coast beachfront locations will deal with full fledged tropical storm conditions and some modest surge flooding as well.

As is always the case, isolated tornadoes are possible as Milton comes ashore tomorrow night.

Look for another update this evening after we take a look at the 5 PM ET NHC advisory.