In brief: As high moisture and additional moisture from the Gulf and Eastern Pacific converge on the Southern U.S. this weekend, heavy rain chances will nudge up. We also check in on Pacific water temperatures and what they tell us about the next few weeks of hurricane season.
A return to more unsettled, wet weather is coming this weekend for the South. While no organized tropical system is expected to develop in the Gulf, a boost in atmospheric moisture across Texas, parts of the Deep South, and Southern Plains will come courtesy of Tropical Storm Cristina’s remnants from the Pacific.
(NOAA NHC)
While Cristina is moving slowly toward the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala, it will begin to pick up a little speed and its remnant moisture will end up in the Bay of Campeche by Friday with additional moisture following behind it.
Moisture (in darker green) will move across Central America and into the Bay of Campeche and eventually southern Plains this weekend. (Cyclonicwx.com)
As all this moisture funnels north and combines with already elevated moisture levels in the Southern Plains and Deep South, we are likely to see areas of heavy rainfall emerge beginning Saturday and continuing into Monday or so. Modeling does not entirely agree on where the heaviest rain will occur with this setup, but it does appear that areas near the Gulf Coast from Texas into Mississippi (as AI modeling thinks), as well as eastern Oklahoma through Arkansas and Missouri will probably be at the highest risk of seeing 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts.
NBM model rainfall forecast over the next week, with highest amounts in the Mississippi Valley and Plains. (WeatherFront)
In fact, parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas are already in a slight risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall on Saturday, slinking south on Sunday.
I think it’s notable to point out just how warm the water in the Pacific is, and this is outside the main El Niño regions we watch. Just in general, the Eastern Pacific is extremely warm right now, and that’s likely aiding in some of the locally heavier rains we’ve seen across the Southern U.S. over the last several weeks.
The East Pacific is absolutely red hot right now, which likely will aid in both tropical activity there, as well as increased moisture availability downstream into parts of the U.S. at times. (Cyclonicwx.com)
I would expect to see continued tropical activity on the Pacific side of Central America in the days and weeks ahead as well, even if the stronger background support that we’ve seen lately fades a bit. But with a “beginning to rage” El Niño in place, history suggests that’s one place the action will be pretty constant this season.
For folks on the Atlantic side of things, it continues to look fairly uneventful for a bit.
In brief: While Gulf development continues to be unlikely, we will probably see unsettled, wet weather try to make another run at the Gulf Coast, Southeast, and Texas next week. The Pacific remains congested with a lot of lower-end activity, as El Niño continues ramping up. Plus, we address reader questions on recently announced ocean research cuts.
Gulf update
The good news is that the odds of any Gulf development continue to remain pleasantly low over the next 7 to 10 days. A little bit of “noise” continues to show up in modeling by this coming weekend and early next week. Even the slightly busier ensemble model from the European ensemble is showing a fair bit of shear in the Gulf next week as well, so the chance of anything significant growing out of any storminess is extremely low.
Around 20 kts. of northerly shear should be present in the Gulf next week. (Tropical Tidbits)
Still, we’ll watch. I think more interestingly will be the precipitation we see emerge in this pattern, with another soaking possible from Texas into the Southeast either beginning this weekend or next week. Through this past Saturday, many parts of the Gulf Coast and Texas had seen 150 to 300 percent of normal rainfall over the previous month.
Rainfall from early May through early June has been rather prolific across the Deep South and Gulf Coast. (High Plains Regional Climate Center)
Another surge of moisture may lead to additional flooding concerns in these areas, so we’ll see how that evolves.
Eastern Pacific
Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific remains busy, with Amanda dissipating out at sea, and Tropical Storm Boris near the Mexican coast.
Tropical Storm Boris will be out of the picture very quickly. (NOAA NHC)
I have to be honest: With a name like Boris, I expected more. Anyway, the second Pacific storm of the season will move ashore tonight as a tropical storm. Behind that is another disturbance passing off the coast of Nicaragua that will continue up the coast and eventually probably move inland. There is a chance that this one also becomes a tropical storm.
Boris and its disturbance friend off the coast of Mexico and Central America. (Weathernerds.org)
There’s just a lot of congestion along the Central America coast on the Pacific side, again, usually a calling card of an El Niño event.
Miscellany
We’ve been asked by a number of readers about a story making the rounds that first appeared in the New York Times about the Trump administration cutting and removing a deep ocean observation system around the globe. This project began 10 years ago and included over $350 million in instruments measuring a number of variables and data in the oceans to help us better understand what is happening on our planet. There’s no real good reason for these instruments to be removed. Or at least no one has shared any. The quote from the National Science Foundation’s spokesperson in the article reads, “aligns with N.S.F.’s wider strategy to have a nimbler approach to prioritizing support for evolving scientific priorities and emerging technologies as well as a deliberate approach to smart life cycle management within its portfolio of research infrastructure.”
In other words, they’re removing it because they don’t want to maintain it, which is kind of part of how science research works. Presumably the upkeep of this project (O&M cost in corporate parlance) as a legacy project had been accounted for in budgets, which opens the door up to any other number of reasons for removing it (like, perhaps because it also informs climate change research) that one can think of. You don’t just invest $350 million dollars in something that works and dismantle it to save a few bucks on maintenance. Or at least most business minded folks would not find that to be particularly efficient.
Anyway, the point is that this reduction is quite unnecessary. Yes, there are climate change research implications here. But there are also broader oceanographic, marine science, and yes, meteorological implications. Some stations help measure currents and provide added value to our broader understanding of coastal flooding, which is increasing all over the country. This continues a pattern that began last year by this administration and continues which is essentially death by a thousand paper cuts to the weather and climate fields (and science in general), implications be damned. We’re not being partisan here, we’re just being truthful.
In brief: We’ll be keeping a casual eye on the Gulf late next week or weekend as the potential does exist for some low-end development. However, it’s by no means close to a certainty at this time.
So far this season, including back into May, we’ve seen some hints in the models of potential Gulf development. Yes, the usual suspects have done their usual things. But also, there’s been at least some legitimacy to the overall pattern being unsettled and stormy. One need only look at a satellite image of the Gulf today to see that.
The Gulf has nothing organizing, but it is a bit unsettled. (WeatherFront)
Over the next few days, we’ll see things start to ease up a little in the Gulf before we get a little bit more intrigue later next week. Around Thursday or Friday, we begin to see the outlines of some cyclonic flow around the Yucatan. It appears that this may be the beginnings of a Central American Gyre (CAG) pattern. This is historically a common pathway to get development in the Gulf or near Mexico in June.
The upper air pattern begins to show vorticity pooling around the Yucatan. While the European model (shown here) is a little aggressive, other modeling indicates the potential start of a CAG type pattern later next week. (WeatherFront)
If this happens, you would start watching the Gulf around next weekend. Is there actual model support for a system? Not entirely. I mean, there is, but it’s not exactly stellar at this point. Google’s AI model is very, very lukewarm on any development. The European AIFS ensemble is also fairly lukewarm on things. The classic European ensemble is a little more excited about things (shown here), but even this is like 20% of ensemble members only. And the European ensemble does tend to have a somewhat overly aggressive genesis forecast with these things in my experience.
The European ensemble has about 20 percent of members developing something loosely in the Gulf next weekend-ish. (Weathernerds.org)
Also keep in mind, this time of year, it’s most likely that if something does develop, it would be sloppy, poorly organized, and quite moisture-laden. That means heavy rain would be more of a concern than any sort of wind or surge aspects. At this point, it’s a curiosity worth following into next week to see what happens but nothing anyone needs to get too worked up over.
Indeed, there is a *lot* of moisture on the board around next weekend, with Sunday the 14th looking like it has above normal moisture up and down the East Coast and into the Gulf and Texas. So at the least, we’re looking for rain chances.
Precipitable water anomalies are above normal all over the Eastern U.S. next weekend, indicating above normal moisture and rain chances. (Pivotal Weather)
More to come on all this.
Elsewhere, we’re in good shape with no concerns. Tropical Storm Amanda in the Pacific is no threat to land. A new disturbance is likely to form into a system currently off the coast of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. That could eventually make landfall, but as of now, models are mixed on exactly what that looks like.
(NOAA/NHC)
Another disturbance south of this one may drift into Central America, possibly briefly developing. We expect the East Pacific to be fairly active this season, so this may just be the beginning for that basin.
In brief: We have our first tropics themed forecast post of the season today, as heavy rainfall in the Southeast may also have some lower-end tropical entanglement to watch. We also discuss the coverage plan for the season and some other weatherly tidbits.
The Eyewall in 2026
Happy Wednesday. We’re getting closer to hurricane season, which is usually when the pace of our posts increases! My apologies to your inbox. Anyway, our plan for this coming season is much like it has been the last few seasons of The Eyewall: We will post every day or two and more frequently when storms are threatening. There may be times where we have to take a few extra days off, as we’re both navigating life! But as always, all of our posts will be public facing and freely available, and we will keep comments open to all this season. We will continue to post both on Substack and The Eyewall’s website, so readers can pick the source best for them. We certainly would love for you to subscribe to our Substack, as it is our way of being able to send out emailed posts en masse and also offers a way to support our work. Paying members support our work for all, but we will hopefully put at least something together unique for you as well at some point later this year, be it a live chat, AMA, or something else. Your support and generosity are greatly appreciated. With my eventual relocation from Houston to the Northeast, I will also probably be including a few more Northeast Corridor related nuggets in here too.
Severe Weather: Not entirely dormant
We’re actually likely heading into a period of somewhat calmer conditions over the coming days, as severe weather risks focus mostly on localized areas from time to time.
The days 4 to 8 severe weather outlook is rather uneventful. (Pivotal Weather)
Again, that’s not to say severe weather won’t happen. It probably will. It’s May, and we’re heading into June. However, any sort of large scale, significant or long-duration events don’t seem likely to crop up anytime soon. It will be stormy in spots, however, including today in the Mid-Atlantic where a slight risk (level 2/5) is in place.
Today’s severe weather risk includes DC, Richmond, and Delmarva. (NOAA SPC)
Flooding chances: Watching the Southeast
And that dovetails into our flooding conversation. It does look quite wet over the next 7 to 10 days or so in the South.
Forecast rain from the NWS over the next 7 days. (Pivotal Weather)
Texas has seen a good deal of rain over the last 7 to 10 days, and while storms will continue to pester the state at times, the better chances will probably shift into the Panhandle and New Mexico as we go into next week. We’ll probably have to start watching some of the burn scars in New Mexico for flash flooding potential.
However, the Southeast is where the focus will now be for the most heavy rain and flooding potential. Precip over the next 2 weeks is expected to average well above normal in Florida and along the eastern Gulf Coast.
(NWS Jacksonville)
While these areas have been dry, obviously when you start talking about isolated pockets of 4 to 8 inches of rain, even over a 10-to-14-day period, that’s a lot and can lead to flooding risk.
Tropics: Something weak in the Gulf stirring in early June? If you squint.
And that dovetails into our tropics conversation. Hurricane season begins on Monday, if you were not aware. We don’t currently see any real threats at this point. That said, within this funnel of moisture aimed at Florida and the Southeast and Gulf Coast, we may begin to see the risk of a disturbance forming by accident in the Gulf.
A very, very small number of European ensemble members indicate that something could attempt to form within this otherwise rainy pattern in the eastern Gulf over the next 2 weeks. (Google Weather Lab)
What does that mean? We’re heading into June, so we’re not talking about anything aesthetically pleasing or textbook here. Early season systems tend to be weak and sloppy but moisture laden. And they often form in the Gulf. With all this moisture being directed south to north across the Gulf, there will inevitably be a disturbance or two in the flow. When that happens, you may briefly open a window for tropical development. Right now, odds favor that *not* happening, but I just want to plant the seed, a.) because again, to emphasize, early season systems are not usually strong and b.) this is definitely a high moisture pattern capable of producing flooding.
Early June Atlantic tropical activity usually forms in the eastern Gulf, far northwest Caribbean or off the Florida coast. (NOAA NHC)
When could this happen? Later next week or weekend. Based on the map from the European ensemble shown near the top of this section, that seems to be the timeframe we may be looking at. Notably, AI modeling, both from the European Centre and from Google show nothing really.
What should happen, regardless, is a pickup in early season activity in the Eastern Pacific, however. Models hint at some activity there.
The East Pacific is quite warm and should become more hospitable toward tropical development over the next few weeks. (Weathernerds.org)
So, do you need to worry about a Gulf system? No, but you should be monitoring rainfall forecasts over the next 10 days in Florida and along the eastern Gulf Coast. More to come!
