Matt Lanza

Milton growing in size, fluctuating in intensity, and still targeting Florida’s west coast with a major hurricane strike tomorrow

Headlines

  • Milton will fluctuate in intensity over the next 18 to 24 hours, perhaps once again becoming a category 5 storm for a time today.
  • Milton is growing in physical size, with an expanding wind field likely to help lock in significant storm surge when it makes landfall tomorrow night.
  • For areas between Tampa Bay and Venice, this may be your version of Ian, with devastating storm surge and strong winds.
  • For Tampa Bay, the track is still much too close for comfort with equal odds of it going just north of the bay (bad) or just south of the bay (bad, but less bad)
  • Major freshwater flooding is a possibility due to 10 to 15 inches of rain that may fall near and north of the I-4 corridor, including Tampa, Orlando, and Ocala.
  • Inland areas will see hurricane force winds and potential for substantial power outages.
Hurricane Milton is still expected to come ashore tomorrow night somewhere between Cape Coral and Cedar Key. (NOAA NHC)

Hurricane Milton bottomed out sometime yesterday evening with a sub-900 mb pressure, the type of storm we have only seen a handful of times historically. Tentatively it is the 5th strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic, but we’ll see what happens from here and in the postseason analysis before that gets firmed up. But the takeaway: Milton is not just a powerful storm, it is a historic one.

Milton underwent an eyewall replacement cycle overnight. In a nutshell: That’s when a hurricane pauses its intensification, takes a breath, and typically grows a bit in size. Milton did just that, knocking its winds back to 145 mph, raising its pressure, but also expanding its tropical storm force wind field from 80 to 105 miles. Milton will continue to grow in physical size as it comes northeast today and tomorrow.

The sun rises on Hurricane Milton Tuesday morning. (College of DuPage)

Milton will continue on a northeasterly path now. This will carry it into the west coast of Florida tomorrow night. Exactly where in Florida it crashes ashore is still to be determined. Modeling seems to be honing in on the area between Clearwater and Sarasota, but given the typical error 36 to 48 hours ahead of landfall, there’s still a wide berth here.

For Tampa Bay’s surge zones: This remains much, much too close of a call to risk riding out. Is there a chance this goes just south of Tampa? Yes. In that case, Milton will probably be damaging but not devastating specifically in Tampa Bay. But you’re talking literally a few wobbles or something like 5 miles of track shift, things that cannot be predicted making that difference. Assume the worst, hope for the best.

The surge forecast remains about 10 to 15 feet in Tampa Bay and just south, including Sarasota, Longboat Key, and Venice. (NOAA NHC)

For areas south of Tampa Bay, things are locking in now unfortunately. This includes Sarasota, Venice, Longboat Key, and elsewhere. This may be your version of Hurricane Ian. The surge south of there into Charlotte Harbor, Punta Gorda, Cape Coral, and Fort Myers will be bad, at 6 to 10 feet, which is significantly lower than was seen in Ian but will be quite significant on its own. The bottom line: This is a terribly ugly storm surge forecast up the coast from where Ian hit in 2022. We cannot stress enough to try to evacuate if ordered, check on neighbors, family, and friends in the region, and hope that somehow or some way this is not as bad as it looks. I fear that is getting harder and harder to occur.

In terms of intensity, we may see Milton make a run back to a category 5 today. The next 18 to 24 hours will probably see some fluctuations in intensity, as is typically the case in hurricanes of this intensity. We’ll probably see the intensity wane some tomorrow, but because the storm will compensate by growing in size, it will be very, very, very bad. Milton should arrive on the Florida coast as a borderline cat 3 or 4 storm in terms of wind, with a surge that will punch above the weight class, closer to cat 4 or 5. Milton is almost certainly not going to “weaken” enough before landfall to matter in terms of impacts.

A high risk (level 4/4) is now posted for flooding rainfall in Florida tomorrow near and north of the I-4 corridor, including Tampa, Orlando, and Ocala. (NOAA WPC)

One thing that seems assured regardless of exact track? Rain. Flooding rainfall is likely near and north of the I-4 corridor tomorrow as Milton moves in. A high risk (level 4/4) has been posted for the area between Tampa and Daytona north to about Ocala. Moderate risks (which are also usually not good) surround this north to Jacksonville and Fernandina Beach and south between Fort Myers and Vero Beach. Total rainfall could be as much as 10 to 15 inches in the high risk area, enough to cause significant, damaging freshwater flooding.

For interior locations, I know this is a scary storm too. But while it will be damaging inland, the hope is that it’s manageable by sheltering in place. If you’re visiting, most hotels and resorts should be pros with this and able to keep you safe. If you live there, winds of 65 to 75 mph sustained and gusts in the 80s or 90s will be unpleasant but as long as you shelter in a sturdy home, you will be fine. Power loss will probably be the most significant problem there, with perhaps a few days without power. Just make sure you’re prepared for that. Run from the water, hide from the wind. East coast beachfront locations will deal with full fledged tropical storm conditions and some modest surge flooding as well.

As is always the case, isolated tornadoes are possible as Milton comes ashore tomorrow night.

Look for another update this evening after we take a look at the 5 PM ET NHC advisory.

Historic Hurricane Milton explodes in the Gulf, solidifying significant, dangerous impacts for Florida

Headlines

  • Milton exploded into a category 5 hurricane today, small but incredibly powerful.
  • Milton’s intensity is expected to fluctuate over the next couple days as it grows in size, but it will almost certainly hit Florida as a powerful hurricane with major surge.
  • It is now expected to bring a 10 to 15 foot surge to Tampa Bay, far worse than Helene and beyond anything observed there in modern times.
  • Significant storm surge south of Tampa Bay as well, including for Sarasota, Punta Gorda, Fort Myers, and perhaps Naples.
  • If told to evacuate, please heed the advice of local officials and if you know someone unable to evacuate or that is stubborn, please try every means of convincing them and/or assisting them to do so.
  • Hurricane conditions likely inland as well (Orlando, Ocala, etc.), but shelter-in-place is recommended, along with planning for possible extended power outages.
  • East coast surge will be worse than Helene but still generally minor to moderate. Heed the advice of local officials there.
  • 6 to 12 inches of rain across Florida north of I-4 expected with widespread river and flash flooding.
  • A 4 to 6 foot surge is expected on the north coast of the Yucatan near Merida and Progreso tonight as Milton passes.

We all know storms can intensify faster than forecast. We’ve seen enough examples in the last 6 or 7 years to count on two hands. But it’s never not shocking when you see it. When I wrote this morning’s post, Milton had just become a category 3 major hurricane with 120 mph winds. By the time everyone finished lunch, it was a 175 mph category 5 storm. Unhinged intensification is what happens when you combine a tropical system in a near-perfect environment over extremely warm and warmer than usual water.

Hurricane Milton’s evolution from cusp of a major hurricane at sunrise to category 5 monster on Monday. (College of DuPage)

I won’t bury the lede: If you’re asked to evacuate in Florida, please do. If you know of anyone unable to or that is unwilling to, try to reason with them or help them where possible. We are not here to tell you what to do, so much as provide information, but I want to be very clear that if I were ordered to evacuate from this storm, I would not think twice. Again, you needn’t go hundreds of miles away. You can hide from wind inland. You need to be away from the surge though. What you saw during Helene was more of an appetizer of what could occur with Milton, namely from the Tampa Bay area southward.

The 5 PM ET forecast for Milton brings it near Tampa Bay on Wednesday night. (NOAA NHC)

This evening, Milton is still a category 5 hurricane with 180 mph maximum sustained winds. There is some chance that Milton could strengthen further, but we’re kind of closing in on theoretical maximum intensity here, and usually category 5 hurricanes don’t stay at peak intensity for more than 12-18 hours or so.

Here’s the rub. Let’s say Milton undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). I won’t get into the weeds, but that’s essentially where a hurricane sort of internally pauses, takes a breath, and resets itself. When it does this, it usually comes back larger in size but a bit weaker in intensity. Right now, tropical storm force winds extend out only 80 miles from the center. Compare this to the over 300 miles Helene’s winds were from the center. Hurricane-force winds extend out 30 miles, and those 180 mph winds? They’re in an extremely small pocket in the eyewall. So let’s say Milton undergoes an ERC tonight. Tomorrow, it may be a high-end cat 4 or still a cat 5, but it will be larger in size. A larger storm can move more water. Let’s say it happens again. Milton maybe becomes a cat 3 or lower-end cat 4, but now it’s doubled in size from today. That means that while the winds won’t be as extreme, they’ll cover a wider area. And the surge? Well, it will punch above its weight class and even if Milton is a 2 or a 3 at landfall, this massive storm surge we’ve been screaming about will still come to fruition, akin to more like a category 4 storm.

Updated storm surge forecasts indicate potential for 10 to 15 feet of surge in Tampa Bay and destructive surge south of there into Sarasota, Fort Myers, and Naples. (NOAA NHC)

So with that, storm surge forecasts have been fine tuned a bit this evening, and frankly they aren’t great. The surge is now expected to be as high as 10 to 15 feet in Tampa Bay. The only way Tampa avoids that now is if the storm track shifts south of the bay entrance. In that case, surge would drop off a good bit and the bay would empty, much as it did during Irma and Ian. Damaging but not catastrophic. As forecast right now, this would be an extremely damaging to potentially catastrophic scenario for Tampa Bay. Worse than Helene by a mile. Again, please heed local government advice and evacuate if told to.

Surge will also be damaging down the coast. Sarasota, Punta Gorda, Fort Myers, and perhaps Naples will all see significant storm surge. Those areas have a bit less uncertainty in the surge forecast compared to Tampa Bay, as the storm will almost certainly stay to the north, bringing significant surge ashore there.

Notably, the Yucatan should not be left out in all this. Though Milton’s strongest winds will pass well offshore, anywhere exposed to onshore winds may see a 4 to 6 foot increase in water level tonight as Milton passes, leading to coastal flooding near Merida and Progreso and just east of there.

Do not focus on specific values here. Strong winds will impact inland areas far from landfall with hurricane force winds possible for Ocala, Orlando, Daytona, and perhaps Jacksonville as well. (Weather Bell)

For inland areas, this will be a bad storm as well. Expect numerous widespread power outages. Hurricane warnings are posted inland to include Orlando and Ocala. Various watches and warnings are in effect elsewhere across Florida, including now on the east coast of Florida with a hurricane watch from St. Lucie County to the Georgia border/St. Mary’s River. Winds will likely gust to hurricane force with some sustained hurricane force winds possible too. For those of you on the east coast, note the surge map above as well. Milton will cause higher surge than Helene did on the east coast. Hurricane force winds are possible on the east coast too. Unless you’re told to evacuate, sheltering in place is the best advice for folks in inland areas and between the First Coast and Space Coast.

Rainfall of 6 to 12 inches will be possible along and north of where Milton tracks. Flash flooding and riverine flooding is possible, if not likely in these areas.

Heavy rainfall will impact much of the Florida Peninsula over the next few days. (NOAA WPC)

Some keen eyed observers noted the yellow X on the NHC map as well. That is separate from Milton and does not matter, as it is moving out to sea. The only tropical concern anyone should have right now is Milton. And we will leave it there. Our next update will come tomorrow morning.

Milton, now a major hurricane remains a very serious threat to Florida

Headlines

  • Milton is now a major hurricane, with further strengthening likely to high-end category 4 or category 5 intensity north of the Yucatan.
  • Milton is expected to bring widespread, significant hurricane conditions to the west coast of Florida on Wednesday.
  • Milton will have a significant storm surge, regardless of its landfall intensity, and west coast communities in the Tampa area and south should expect a Helene-type surge *at a minimum,* with higher surge likely at and south of the exact landfall point of Milton.
  • Heavy rain will overtake most of north Florida Wednesday and flash flooding is likely along and north of I-4 then.
  • Milton should accelerate out to sea after Wednesday night.

As of 7 AM ET, NOAA hurricane hunters discovered that Milton now has 120 mph maximum sustained winds and a pressure of 954 mb. Milton is undergoing rapid intensification in the Gulf and is now a major hurricane.

The 5 AM ET advisory on Milton shows landfall still likely between about Steinhatchee and Fort Myers. (NOAA NHC)

In the immediate term, hurricane conditions are likely on the coast of the Yucatan tonight and tomorrow morning as Milton passes. Warnings are posted from Celestun to Rio Lagartos in Mexico. This does not include Cancun or Cozumel.

There are several things to touch on this morning. We’re going to go over track, intensity, and surge in this post.

Milton’s Track

There are a couple elements to Milton’s track that are important. Milton has a little bit of north to south trajectory being imparted on its motion right now, and that’s why we’re seeing Milton track east-southeast. That component of the direction is expected to fade after today, and Milton will then basically rush off to join up with a trough in the upper atmosphere dropping down the East Coast. As this happens, Milton will turn east and then probably due northeast. While Milton is a rarity in terms of how far west in the Gulf it formed, what it’s doing in terms of track is fairly common behavior of Gulf storms in October.

Still some very wide goalposts in terms of where Milton comes ashore in Florida with numerous models on either side of Tampa Bay and some as far south as Fort Myers. (Tropical Tidbits)

For Florida, the question of track and trajectory is critically important. On one hand, there will be a large, major hurricane approaching the west coast of Florida on Wednesday afternoon. And from that point of view, expect widespread hurricane impacts regardless of track. On the other hand, as we’ve discussed, the exact track is critically important in terms of how storm surge will behave. The worst surge will come in at and south of where Milton comes ashore, so a track into Siesta Key has a drastically different outcome than a track into Clearwater. This isn’t just for Tampa; it’s for the entire heavily populated west coast. So we’ll need to see exactly where that turn to the northeast occurs and how strong Milton actually gets. But as noted yesterday, everyone on Florida’s west coast needs to prepare as if this is coming and follow the advice of local officials.

Milton’s intensity

Now that Milton is already a major hurricane, it seems likely that it will become at least a category 4, with a chance to become a category 5 storm.

Milton is going to traverse an extremely warm, high heat potential portion of the Gulf, including the Loop Current, which should allow it plenty of fuel for intensification. (Alex Boreham/cyclonicwx.com)

We can say that Milton has a reasonable chance to become a high-end 4 or 5 storm because of the heat potential available to it in the Gulf. All else aside, the storm will have some of the highest heat potential in the entire Atlantic, outside the northwest Caribbean available to it for intensification. Most modeling shows the storm peaking in intensity sometime tomorrow and then slowly shaving some of it off as it approaches landfall. Unfortunately, from a surge point of view this matters very little. The surge is baked in and even if the storm weakens substantially, the surge will lag that weakening. If, hypothetically, Milton becomes a cat 5 and makes landfall as a cat 3, it will probably still have surge equivalent to a strong cat 4 at landfall. So we have to assume the surge is going to be very bad regardless. In terms of wind, a storm that weakens will probably also expand in size. So while the peak wind may be lower at landfall, those winds will envelope more of the coast than otherwise, and the expectation should be that much of the west coast of Florida will be experiencing substantial hurricane impacts on Wednesday. Impacts to the east coast and inland Florida will be less severe than the west coast in terms of wind, but those areas will still likely see tropical storm or hurricane winds as well.

A moderate risk of flash flooding (level 3/4) is shown for much of Florida north of I-4 on Wednesday (and for Miami and southeast Florida today) (NOAA WPC)

Flooding will be an issue regardless of Milton’s intensity, and the heaviest rain will fall along and north of Milton’s storm track from central Florida into portions of southeast Georgia.

Milton’s surge

By far the most troubling aspect of Milton will be the surge. Again, the fact that Milton will likely be past peak intensity when it makes landfall will matter very, very little in terms of what sort of storm surge it brings.

The current peak surge forecast for Tampa Bay is at Helene levels to perhaps several feet higher than Helene’s surge. (NOAA NHC)

More critical for surge, as noted above will be where the storm makes landfall. I anticipate that the map above will evolve as the track becomes clearer. At this point, Tampa Bay should expect, at a minimum, a Helene-type surge. If Milton hits north of Tampa Bay, the surge will be several feet higher and possibly more forceful than Helene. Surge will also be notably worse than Helene for areas south of Tampa, including Sarasota, Fort Myers, Naples, etc. Exactly how much worse will depend on track. But surge is probably going to be the most dangerous, concerning element of Milton. That will be what determines evacuation orders. And again, we can’t stress enough that you should heed those warnings and hope for the best.

We’ll have another update following later this afternoon once we digest the 5 PM ET advisory.

Milton on the upswing and will require preparing for the worst and hoping for the best on Florida’s west coast

Headlines

  • Milton is now a hurricane, and it is forecast to become a powerful category 4 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.
  • It continues to look likely to track into the west coast of Florida on Wednesday as a major hurricane, delivering wind, rain, and potentially catastrophic storm surge to Florida’s west coast.
  • Impacts will be significant regardless of Milton’s specific intensity at landfall.
  • Milton will also deliver some impacts to the north coast of the Yucatan tomorrow.
4 PM track of Milton shows a landfall somewhere between Fort Myers and Steinhatchee on Wednesday. (NOAA NHC)

Hurricane Milton is strengthening this evening, now with winds of 85 mph. It is expected to become a category 4 hurricane now with 145 mph maximum sustained winds by Tuesday afternoon. It will likely peak in intensity and come ashore into Florida in a somewhat less intense state, however a no less dangerous one.

First point I want to absolutely stress: Given that this storm is going to be extraordinarily precarious for the Tampa Bay area, if you live in an evacuation zone on the Bay and you are told to go and you have the means and ability…go. If you do not, follow up with local officials on what you need to be doing. This is the storm where you expect the worst and hope for the best. Tampa’s had a generally favorable hurricane history over the last 100 years, but at some point that streak is going to end. Unfortunately, you are not afforded the luxury of time with this one. A track north of Tampa Bay has dramatically different impacts in terms of surge compared to a storm tracking south of the bay. As local WFLA meteorologist Jeff Beradelli stressed yesterday, you run from the water and hide from the wind. You don’t need to travel hundreds of miles to escape the surge threat; just a few. But if you are told to go, you should go out of an abundance of caution. We will debate the specifics of the forecast, but I want to remind you that notable past storms such as Katrina, Rita, Ike, and Opal were all storms that were weakening at landfall and that all did tremendous surge damage. That’s the fear in Tampa Bay.

Potential inundation map around Tampa Bay based on a reasonable worst case scenario with the current forecast. (NOAA NHC)

Current model forecasts are still spread out to a point where we believe there are almost equal chances that this tracks just north or to the south of Tampa Bay. In other words, we are still waiting on some clarity with track, hence why we are advising people to evacuate if told to do so.

Afternoon model guidance on Milton shows good agreement on the general track with a significant spread in terms of how this will impact specific west coast communities in Florida.

We are obviously heavily focused on Tampa because that’s the densest and most populated area in this region. But let’s talk briefly about a few other places.

Big Bend & Nature Coast: Areas that were hardest hit by Helene last month will likely see impacts from Milton but hopefully mainly via rain and some gusty winds. With the storm currently likely to track to the south and an offshore wind in place, Big Bend communities should be spared additional surge problems. But some added vulnerability from Helene may lead to a few issues. Follow the advice of local authorities.

Sarasota & Bradenton: Wind and surge will be major concerns here. Unless this does follow extreme southern model forecasts and comes in near Fort Myers, there will likely be a substantial surge in these areas. While there will be strong, potentially major hurricane force winds here, the strongest winds may end up north of this area. Much like Tampa, however, it would be wise to follow any evacuation orders given and you should take this as seriously as Tampa.

Fort Myers & Naples: Obviously this region is vulnerable and on edge for any storm impacts given Ian’s hit a couple years ago. You’ll want to watch how close this gets to you in terms of how much wind to expect (the closer, the worse). Surge should be considerable no matter the track at this point, and you should be following the advice of local officials who should know the risks of surge post-Ian. Really want to make sure folks here take this seriously.

Orlando: We’ve gotten a lot of questions about the Orlando area and people with vacations. In Orlando, the impacts from Milton will involve wind and rain and the potential for severe weather. There will be areas of flooding in and around Central Florida, especially given precursor rounds of rain. So obviously watch for that. While the wind will probably be nasty at times and power outages will be a good possibility, most hotels should have plans in place to keep guests safe in storms like this. One other risk in interior Florida will be that of tornadoes or severe storms as Milton blows through.

Daytona through Jacksonville: This area will see very heavy rain, possibly back inland to Gainesville as well. In addition to tropical storm or hurricane conditions as Milton crosses the area, flooding and isolated tornadoes will be possible. There will probably be some minor storm surge as well on the east coast of Florida.

In terms of rainfall for Florida, between predecessor rains and Milton, we are looking at 5 to 10 inches of additional rainfall along and north of I-4 in Florida.

Significant rainfall along and north of I-4 will cause areas of flooding from Tampa to Orlando to Jacksonville. Additional flooding possible elsewhere in South Florida too. (Pivotal Weather)

So the message I want to close with for now is this: This is a serious, serious threat to Florida and it should be taken seriously. Don’t let any conversation among meteorologists or others about what intensity Milton will be at landfall dictate your decision-making. Follow the advice of local officials, check on friends, family, and neighbors. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. We’ll post again in the morning.