Beryl racing toward the Yucatan with eyes on northeast Mexico or south Texas by Sunday night

Happy Independence Day to our readers here in the U.S. Hope it is a safe, fun day and/or weekend for you.

Headlines

• Hurricane Beryl is motoring toward the Yucatan, with landfall expected late tonight or Friday morning near or north of Tulum.
• Beryl’s forecast toward the western Gulf is coming into slow focus now with a landfall likely well north of Tampico, Mexico and south of Port O’Connor, TX.
• Hurricane impacts are possible to likely in South Texas Sunday into early Monday.
• Beryl will transition into a heavy rainmaker once inland with increasing chances of excessive rain in South Texas showing up now.

Hurricane Beryl (115 mph, WNW 18 mph)

Beryl made a very close pass on Jamaica yesterday evening, and is now back out in the Caribbean chugging west northwest toward the Yucatan.

Beryl’s near-term track appears to have shifted a smidge to the north versus yesterday or is at least riding the northern half of the guidance envelope. This was probably enough to allow Beryl to ultimately come in on the Yucatan a little farther north than it seemed yesterday. Instead or near or south of Tulum, we’re probably looking at landfall near or north of Tulum. Significant storm surge, heavy rain, and hurricane winds are expected across the Yucatan and perhaps as far south as northern Belize (though the latter will be on the relative weaker side of the storm). Rain totals are expected to be upwards of 10 inches locally.

With Beryl being quick moving that should hopefully lessen the rainfall impact from the storm a bit.

What about Texas?

Most of our readership lies in Texas, so let’s talk about Beryl’s end game for a minute. Since yesterday, Beryl maintain some intensity and is tracking on the northern half of the guidance envelope. Obviously that brings portions of south Texas more into play for Beryl’s landfall. The Houston area remains unlikely to see any direct impacts from Beryl. However folks from Corpus Christi southward are very much in play.

Modeling has been bouncing around a bit, but there’s been a significant shift toward a consensus in the last 18 hours or so. This places south Texas firmly in the possible crosshairs of a landfall from Beryl.

Exactly where it makes landfall is too soon to say, but interests from about Port O’Connor south to the Rio Grande will want to monitor the forecast the next couple days. Landfall would probably come around late Sunday night, with impacts beginning early Sunday. There is still a bit of uncertainty in what Beryl will look like when it emerges from the Yucatan, but it will have marginally favorable conditions to reintensify as it tracks toward northeast Mexico or south Texas. The expectation is that a hurricane will come ashore in that region Sunday night. We still need to work on intensity for it, but the current official NHC forecast is for a 75 mph hurricane near landfall. We remind people to not focus on the specific landfall point or intensity, as impacts will spread outward from the center. Even a landfall in Mexico would cause some impacts as far north as Corpus Christi.

Beryl looks increasingly likely to tap hard on the brakes as it turns northwest and comes inland. This means that Beryl is likely to produce several rounds of heavy rain across South Texas. Uncertainty on where Beryl meanders inland after landfall is very high. Beryl could stall out in South Texas or in the Rio Grande Valley. Or Beryl could just slowly drift north toward Hill Country. The current rainfall forecast for the region shows manageable rain, but some operational model guidance is beginning to get a little more unruly with rain totals above 10 inches in spots.

This is becoming an increasing concern with Beryl. A lot of areas in South Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, or Hill Country need rain pretty badly. However, while a slowing or stalling tropical storm can provide that, it can also provide problems. Folks in South Texas will want to continue to monitor changes to the rainfall forecast closely in the days ahead. The current expectation is that areas from Houston into Louisiana will see an uptick in daily thunderstorms next week but generally manageable rainfall. We will continue to watch this closely.

Beyond Beryl

Beryl was a good role model for Invest 96L. Much like its bigger sibling, 96L also refuses to give up, though it remains extremely disorganized in the Caribbean. It will follow Beryl west and northwest and may inject a dose of additional moisture into the rains over Texas or Mexico next week, but it seems unlikely to develop much on its own. Beyond that, it’s quiet and hopefully stays that way for a week or two.