Could the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season have some tricks up its sleeve? Breaking down the CSU Outlook

Late last week, the team at Colorado State University issued their always hotly anticipated seasonal hurricane outlook for the Atlantic Basin. To clear this up at the beginning, their forecast calls for:

• 17 named storms (normal 14)
• 9 hurricanes (normal 7)
• 4 major hurricanes (normal 3)
• Accumulated cyclone energy: 155 (normal 123)

Nothing about this forecast on the surface is especially notable or alarming or fascinating. It’s simply a slightly above average forecast.

But what is somewhat notable about their forecast is some of the under the hood items they address. First, we are likely to be coming out of a La Niña event, something we discussed last back in February. But as the CSU team notes, we don’t know for sure if we’re headed for El Niño or ENSO neutral (La Nada) conditions. ENSO neutral summers combined with warm water temperatures “typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.” In other words, hurricanes like those background conditions.

We do not yet have a “plume” from the C3S suite for April, but the March plume skewed slightly toward El Niño development.

If we get to El Niño conditions by late summer or fall, that does not guarantee that conditions will shift to become more hostile to hurricane development. But that may take the edge off a bit. However, if we “hang” near the neutral line or even in weak La Niña territory, any hostile conditions may be apt to stay away, ensuring a busier season than usual.

In addition to the forecast for named storms and such, the CSU team also does try to convert that seasonal outlook to a prediction of U.S. landfall risk. Indeed, with a more active season expected, the odds of a U.S. landfall are also higher. They have a 51 percent chance of a major hurricane landfall on the U.S. coast, compared to a historical average of 43 percent. The odds on the East Coast are 26 percent, compared to 21 percent typically. And in the Gulf of Mexico, the landfall odds between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville are 33 percent versus a 27 percent average.

According to the CSU team, all model guidance is pointing to an above-normal season. Water temperatures remain well above long-term averages across the Atlantic. As we noted earlier this year, however, this is not last year’s Atlantic sea-surface temperature profile. But it’s still quite warm.

From the map above, you’ll notice that the eastern Atlantic has cooled markedly since last year, however the Gulf, Caribbean, and northern Atlantic Ocean are all warmer. The fire that was burning all last summer in the eastern Atlantic is still smoldering, but it has been somewhat extinguished. The Gulf and Caribbean are another matter. The Gulf is warmer than 2024 by a good bit but still lags 2023. While the Caribbean was warmer than 2024 in March, it has since cooled some in April, taking it back under 2024 levels. Water temperature conditions can change quickly, but the bottom line is that the Atlantic, with the exception of the eastern basin are in the upper echelon of warm years at this point. The warmer overall waters in March in the eastern North Atlantic (north of the tropics), along with the warm Caribbean do correlate to active hurricane seasons.

The bottom line is that the underlying data support the idea of an active hurricane season — but not to the levels feared last year. But there aren’t very many red flags at this time arguing against that outcome. At least last year, we had the expectation of a developing La Niña to help grease the wheels a bit, and a slow development could have slowed the hurricane season a bit. This year? There’s no real glaring red flag that says the season will bust. But hurricane seasons always have surprises. Hopefully this year’s involves calm.

Colorado State’s seasonal hurricane forecast is just that, a seasonal forecast. Should you plan your life based on this? No. But they generally have good skill. And their skill in the last 10 years or so has been great. You still have a few weeks, but it’s time to start thinking about, refreshing, and planning for the season ahead. There’s a lot of uncertainty this year in terms of FEMA and federal response to storms, so it probably behooves you to plan that kit even a bit more than usual. We have tips on our preparedness page, which we will go through and adjust any broken links when we have some time in the coming weeks.