Ernesto exiting, as the Atlantic tropics should settle down for a bit now

Headlines

  • Ernesto will exit out to sea tonight and tomorrow, brushing southern Newfoundland with some impacts on the way out.
  • The Atlantic looks quiet through early next week.
  • If we want to scope out trouble that isn’t showing up on models, we’ll watch a Gulf disturbance this weekend and early next week; unlikely to develop but will bring some welcome rain chances back to Texas.

Ernesto finds the exit ramp

After impacting Bermuda and sending a bunch of rough surf toward the Atlantic coast of the U.S. and Canada, Hurricane Ernesto is on the way out the door today.

Hurricane Ernesto is accelerating off to the northeast, while flinging clouds and perhaps some modest impacts to southeastern Newfoundland. (Weathernerds.org)

Ernesto is now moving northeast at 28 mph and taking on that “look” of a storm in transition from tropical system to post-tropical low pressure. Winds are 90 mph with Ernesto, and the wind field remains large, with tropical storm force winds expanding out 220 miles from the center. As Ernesto makes its closest pass to Newfoundland tonight, wind, rain, and rough seas will likely impact the Avalon Peninsula.

Ernesto’s track will bring it close to the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland tonight before it exits out to sea. (Canadian Hurricane Centre)

With Ernesto moving along quickly, conditions should deteriorate there quickly tonight, then improve quickly tomorrow. By tomorrow night, Ernesto should be full extratropical/post-tropical and racing east-northeast across the Atlantic. And that closes the book on the fifth storm of 2024.

A lull for a moment

The Atlantic basin will shut down post-Ernesto for a moment or two. Or three. Who knows. Tropical activity over the next 7 days is expected to be basically non-existent.

A plot of European ensemble tropical systems over the next 7 days shows virtually nothing after Ernesto. (Weathernerds.org)

How long this lull lasts is tough to say. We’ll dive more into the context of all this and how this season stacks up vs past seasons a little later this week (and key reasons to not write it off as a “bust” in mid-August). For now, I don’t see anything really of note out there over the next 7 to 10 days. I do believe conditions will shift more favorable for activity as the calendar flips to September. But that’s an average confidence feeling right now.

If we want to dig for trouble that could surprise us, we could maybe look in the Gulf this weekend or next week. It appears that a disturbance is going to swing in either off the Atlantic or from inland thunderstorms across the Southeast and into the northeast Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. From there it will follow its way around the periphery of a Central Plains ridge of high pressure across the Gulf toward Texas.

Mid-level disturbance may be worth watching as it swings across the Gulf this weekend or early next week. Not expected to develop, but it should bring increasing rain chances to Texas next week. (Tropical Tidbits)

Again, we’re looking for surprise trouble here, which is to say that no model currently develops this at all. And that’s the most likely outcome. But, we’ll keep tabs on it just in case. Regardless, this will probably bring an increase in rain chances to Texas next week, which has gone fairly dry this month. Most rain will be welcome.

But aside from that, I think we’re on a pre-peak break in the Atlantic through early next week. We’ll take it.

12 thoughts on “Ernesto exiting, as the Atlantic tropics should settle down for a bit now”

  1. What do you make of the forecasts for increased wind shear in the Gulf at the turn of the month? The CFS Weekly shows strong wind shear the next six weeks.

  3. 😂 Keep that “a pre-peak break in the Atlantic” going! 😂 I’m headed out if town for a bit and would appreciate 😂 no “tropical nonsense”😂 while gone.

  4. Thanks. So happy you had good medical news! Just for the record, I don’t consider a quiet storm season as a bust! Alyce

  5. Your last comment about the potential for a spin up in the Gulf next weekend, even though it isn’t likely, could possibly be “hype”. I would expect JB to write about that and not you guys.

    • Considering it is heavily laced with “this probably won’t happen,” no it isn’t hype. JB would have a Cat 4 into Galveston. As a meteorologist that has worked on the Gulf Coast for a long time now, I can tell you that there have been instances where I’ve been surprised by development that was not forecast from disturbances such as this. And after we were quite heavily accused of downplaying Beryl too much, it wouldn’t be exactly a good look to not mention it. You have to find balance…what you see as hype, someone else sees as helpful. This is a weather blog after all, so, yes, we’re going to discuss weather. We’re not going to cry wolf though, and I don’t believe this post does that at all.

      • Please keep up the great work. My comment was not appropriate given all the hard work and sacrifices you guys make on a daily basis. Weather forecasting is not easy by any stretch of the imagination.

  7. quoting:
    “For now, I don’t see anything really of note out there over the next 7 to 10 days. I do believe conditions will shift more favorable for activity as the calendar flips to September. ”

    … and then the next paragraph:

    “If we want to dig for trouble that could surprise us, we could maybe look in the Gulf this weekend or next week. ”

    I had to check if I was on the F o x Weather website – am I ? 🙂

Comments are closed.