In brief: Melissa seems to be in the process of rapid intensification in the Caribbean tonight, likely becoming a major hurricane by morning. Melissa is expected to become a category 5 storm as it tracks slowly toward Jamaica, bringing catastrophic rain and wind impacts, in addition to storm surge. Landfall in Jamaica is expected Monday night or Tuesday morning, with Melissa near maximum intensity.
Melissa is rapidly intensifying
A tropical storm this morning, Melissa is now a category 2 hurricane just southeast of Jamaica. It is clearly in the process of rapidly intensifying.
All along, Melissa has had the scaffolding it needed to eventually wrap up into a monster storm. Dry air is not an issue. Wind shear was an issue, but it has since overcome that and it is no longer an issue at present. Reliable models are on board with an extended rapid intensification cycle lasting 36 to 48 hours. The National Hurricane Center explicitly forecasts Melissa to become a category 5 hurricane by tomorrow night or Monday. One key note conveyed by NHC senior hurricane specialist Philippe Papin on his personal social media this evening is that there is some chance that Melissa tracks a bit west-southwest tonight. If that happens, it provides a few extra hours from preparations in Jamaica, but it also increases the likelihood that Melissa will reach peak possible intensity in these circumstances.
We are witnessing what is really just a worst-case type scenario for Jamaica. I don’t want to say it’s THE worst-case scenario, as that’s a complex thing to define anywhere. But a slow-moving, rain-loaded high-end major hurricane potentially making a direct hit on an island nation is one of those things you dread ever seeing.
What’s just terrible about this is not just that it’s realistic that Jamaica could be hit directly by a category 5 hurricane, it’s that it comes after 48 hours of tropical storm or localized hurricane conditions and torrential rain. This combination of flooding and saturated ground multiplies the potential damage we could see by a fair bit and just translates into an awful experience for folks in Jamaica. Not to mention the storm surge that will accompany Melissa as it turns toward Jamaica Monday night. Torrential rain will also continue to impact Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula, the southwest Dominican Republic, and eventually eastern Cuba.
We are looking at a devastating, catastrophic impact in the Caribbean. People will need help after this, and we will try to share some ways to help in the days ahead.