In brief: Just a quick update on Melissa this morning. A more comprehensive update will be posted this evening.
Melissa remains disorganized this morning, with max winds of 50 mph.
There have been minimal track or intensity forecast changes since yesterday.
The biggest change is perhaps tracking it a little closer to Jamaica by next week. Tropical Storm Warnings are now posted for Jamaica, with Hurricane Watches for both Jamaica and southwest Haiti. A major hurricane is expected by late this weekend.
The rainfall forecast for Melissa remains ominous, with 12 inches (300mm) or more possible through the weekend in Jamaica.
When you factor in that this rainfall forecast is through Sunday morning, and there will be at least a couple more days of torrential rain to follow, portions of Jamaica could be in line for 20 to 30 inches (500-750mm) of rainfall before all is said and done. It’s an extremely concerning situation, particularly given that tropical storm, if not hurricane conditions may accompany those rains much of the time. We urge the strongest precautions for folks in Jamaica with respect to flooding in particular, but also for tropical storm and hurricane conditions.
We’ll be back later today with more color on this.