Sneaky subtropical Atlantic system no threat to land, Eastern heat wave blasts onward, flooding in New Mexico

In brief: Our first investigative area of hurricane season has formed in the Atlantic, but Invest 90L will not threaten any land. Meanwhile, heat roasts the East this week, while flooding threatens New Mexico.

Subtropical mischief from Invest 90L

It’s easy to get so caught up in looking at the corridor between the Gulf, Caribbean, and Africa that mid-latitude systems out in the open Atlantic can sometimes just get lumped in with background noise. Indeed, it appears that this may be one of those cases.

A subtropical system may have a very, very brief window to develop before midweek. (NOAA NHC)

Invest 90L, our first “area of investigation” this season won’t be winning any hurricane look-a-like contests, but conditions may briefly be favorable for a burst of quick development before it launches out to sea. There is zero threat to land from 90L. It’s more of a curiosity than anything.

Invest 90L has a slight chance to develop before Tuesday. If it misses the window, it’s unlikely to do so. (Weathernerds.org)

This one would firmly fall into the stat padding category for the season should it develop, though it would contribute virtually nothing to the overall depiction of the season beyond perhaps a name off the board. But it’s a sign that even in a generally unfavorable overall pattern, something can still spin up.

Rest of this week in the tropics

Quiet. There’s no sign that the overarching dominant pattern of “hostile” will change anytime soon. The medium range models which go out 10 to 14 days generally look quiet as well. We do expect the Pacific to continue somewhat active with another system likely later this week. But for the Atlantic, the best you’ll get out of this pattern in all likelihood is something either like we see in the North Atlantic right now, or some currently un-forecast complex of thunderstorms that ends up in the Gulf or off the Southeast coast. Good news for those of us that want calm.

Heat bakes on

The Eastern U.S. heatwave is going to continue onward. Some notable numbers from this weekend: Prior to Saturday, only 31 nights on record in Minneapolis had failed to drop below 80 degrees. Saturday was 32 and Sunday was 33. Sunday’s 82 degrees ties for the fourth warmest low temperature on record and first time since the Dust Bowl era that Minneapolis has been so warm at night. Yesterday was also the first time since 2019 that Chicago failed to drop below 80 degrees.

Heading into the next couple days, the heat will begin to peak in the Eastern U.S., with numerous records likely to be threatened or fall. The most impressive on the list below for some selected major cities is probably the 1888 record in New York City that should fall tomorrow or the 1923 record in Philly.

Whatever the case, there is a massive swath of the country under heat advisories and warnings. Models continue to suggest that upper level “heights” in the atmosphere have a fairly decent chance at breaking all-time records in parts of Virginia based on the historical data we have. And there’s a very good chance they’ll be setting new June records. Heights can help us determine the intensity of a ridge or trough in the atmosphere. The higher the values, the stronger the heat can be this time of year.

European ensemble model depiction of probability that 500 mb heights set annual records on Monday afternoon. (Polarwx.com)

The good news is that as the week progresses, the ridge should break down, slowly. This will accelerate over the weekend and next week, allowing heat to rebuild in places to the west, like the Plains and Texas and possibly Southwest.

Southwest flooding risk

This pattern setup is allowing for a feed of monsoonal moisture from the Pacific into New Mexico and parts of West Texas. This, combined with a number of favorable factors for significant rain is likely to put a pretty substantial flooding risk into New Mexico and perhaps portions of western Texas tomorrow.

(NWS Albuquerque)

Burn scar flooding and mudslide risk is a major concern in New Mexico. But all forms of flooding look to be in high supply tomorrow. Conditions should ease up some in the back half of the week.

Total expected rainfall through midweek in New Mexico. (Pivotal Weather)

The quiet Atlantic rolls on, so we look at a major Eastern heat wave

In brief: We explain what’s behind the quiet Atlantic start this season. We also look at how wet bulb globe temperatures can more adequately qualify the severity of the heat next week in the Eastern U.S.

The calm Atlantic continues

This morning at our Houston-focused site, Space City Weather, I explained to our local audience sort of why things have been quiet in the Atlantic. I am reposting that here today, as we have no further items to discuss at this point in time tropics-wise.

Today is June 20th, and to this point I don’t think we’ve said a word at Space City Weather about hurricanes or tropical storms. It’s a refreshing change of pace after recent seasons. In fact, the last year that we did not have a storm in the Atlantic before July 1st was back in 2014. It’s been a while.

All’s quiet for now. (NOAA NHC)

Meanwhile, the Pacific has been churning out storms apace this season, with five so far. Of course, only one of them (Erick, which just made landfall yesterday) was a big storm. Still, the conditions to this point this hurricane season have strongly favored the Pacific. You can thank dust and wind shear in the Atlantic for one, but those things aren’t abnormal, even in recent Junes. So there has to be more at play here.

Rising air has been centered on southeast Asia and Central America so far this month, with most of the Atlantic in a generally unfavorable background state. (NOAA)

We often talk about the “background state” of the atmosphere. You have individual tropical waves and systems and such through the year, but the background state is important. Are the overarching global weather conditions favorable for development or unfavorable? So far this June, we’ve had the majority of rising air, or a “favorable” background state for tropical development sitting over Central America. Rising air is what helps thunderstorms to develop. Since tropical weather generally moves east to west across the planet, this has meant that most seedlings for development are being planted in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Sinking air sits over Africa and extends all the way across to the Caribbean islands. Sinking air tends to suppress cloud development and dry the air out a bit. By the time any waves can really get going, they more than likely end up over land or kicked into the Pacific.

Over the next couple weeks, this pattern is unlikely to change a whole heck of a lot, but we may start to see slightly more favorable conditions emerge over Africa or the far eastern Atlantic by early July. That said, there are no guarantees that actually means anything. Realistically, the next 7 to 10 days look calm and the 10-to-14-day period has no signs of meaningful change yet.

We do still expect an average to above average hurricane season; June’s activity has no real correlation to the rest of the season, so you can’t decipher any relationships. But when you can get a hassle-free month in hurricane season, you take it without complaints.

Bottom line: You still have time to prepare for hurricane season.

Qualifying a major heat wave

No, it’s not “just summer.” The upcoming heat wave in the Eastern U.S. is expected to break a number of records.

A map showing sites that may threaten or easily break record highs next Tuesday based on the current NOAA temperature forecast. (NOAA)

In Houston, we’ve adapted our readers to looking at heat in a more nuanced way. Heat and humidity are common issues here in Texas. We deal with low to mid 90s almost daily from June through early September, with a face-full of humidity and hotter temps periodically peppered in. It’s not pleasant. So things like “heat index,” which is commonly referred to as real-feel or apparent temperature doesn’t always help us to explain heat. Some days can have a 105 degree or 110 degree heat index, but what does it actually mean?

That’s why we often utilize the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) for expressing heat risks here in Texas. Our forecast is pretty normal right now, without any real significant heat on the horizon. So when you look at our WBGT, you’ll see it sits in the moderate to high range for the next week. High heat is normal in Southeast Texas. But we do not rise to the level of extreme with this forecast.

Wet bulb globe temperature forecast for Houston, TX shows moderate to high heat over the next week, fairly common this time of year. (Weather Bell)

What is WBGT? It factors in more than heat index (which is just temperature and humidity). A heat index of 105 in Houston means something much different than a heat index of 105 in New York City. So we need more variables. WBGT factors in latitude, sun angle (time of year), wind, cloud cover, temperature, and humidity. It’s a lot more “stuff” than just heat index, so it becomes more valuable. It also helps that it’s a medically accepted guideline for qualifying heat as extreme or high.

So what of the upcoming heat in the Eastern U.S.? Well, let’s let the WBGT guide us. Let’s start in New York City, which is of course the center of the universe. The upcoming heat rises to “extreme” levels by a fair margin.

The heat next week in New York can be qualified as “extreme” and hazardous. (Weather Bell)

This is a hazardous heat for the City. Even at night, we still retain moderate heat values which can cause problems of its own.

Let’s look at Richmond, Virginia. There, where higher heat is a little more common, the WBGT levels are forecast to just barely get to extreme levels.

The heat in Richmond, VA is more high than extreme, meaning that the relative impact of heat is probably going to be higher in NYC than in Virginia. (Weather Bell)

Since the region of the country is what sets the scale, extreme heat starts with a WBGT of 84 in New York but 90 in Richmond. Let’s move to Chicago, where they’ll likely see borderline extreme heat too.

Borderline extreme heat will occur in Chicago this weekend and Monday. (Weather Bell)

While the focus is on the East, let’s not forget the Upper Midwest. A short-lived but powerful dose of heat is going to set in this weekend, with Minneapolis likely experiencing two days of extreme heat before temperature fall off a cliff.

Minneapolis will have some of the relatively hottest air of all this weekend. (Weather Bell)

In some places, the heat is going to sit around deep into next week, and it’s possible that some forecasts will need to be adjusted hotter over time. The ridge of high pressure responsible for this heat wave should begin to break down next weekend.

So what is the point of this? Extreme heat is not “just summer,” and when you utilize metrics like WBGT, the data becomes very clear. Also critical is the duration of the heat and how warm it stays overnight. In New York, for example, nighttime lows may struggle to drop below 80 degrees. That is exceptionally warm there. Going back to the 1860s, Central Park has only recorded 69 nights that failed to drop below 80 degrees. Over a third of those have occurred in just the last 30 years, due in part to climate change and warming oceans. It’s been a minute since nighttime temperatures that warm have occurred in New York, with the last 80 degree night recorded in July 2020. The longer those warm nights occur, the more compounding impact the daytime heat has, and the more hazardous it becomes, particularly for elderly people and those with poor air conditioning.

Anyway, bottom line, be smart about the heat in the East next week. Practice heat safety and drink plenty of water.

Pacific Hurricane Erick on the way to becoming a major hurricane and impacting Mexico

In brief: Hurricane Erick is expected to make landfall early Thursday morning in the state of Guerrero, east of Acapulco in Mexico as a major hurricane. Heavy rain, bad surge, and powerful winds will impact the Mexico coasts of eastern Guerrero and Oaxaca. In the U.S., a major heat wave will rev up this weekend and next week in the East.

Hurricane Erick

One look at Erick on satellite this afternoon, and you can see that this thing is well put together.

Hurricane Erick is a category 2 storm likely heading to at least category 3 intensity before making landfall in coastal early Thursday morning. (Weathernerds.org)

Erick was a 50 mph tropical storm this time on Tuesday, and it’s now a 100 mph hurricane. While there is still some uncertainty on how high Erick’s ceiling is, the track is coming into pretty clear focus now. Erick should make landfall later tonight in eastern Guerrero in Mexico, with significant impacts there (east of Acapulco) and in Oaxaca. Hurricane warnings extend from Acapulco to Puerto Angel, with hurricane watches west of Acapulco and tropical storm warnings on both sides of the hurricane warnings.

(Tomer Burg)

Erick is rapidly intensifying, and several models are pushing Erick into major hurricane status by tonight. Given that satellite loop above and the conditions ahead of Erick near the coast of Mexico, I see no reason why Erick won’t be at least a low-end Cat 3 when it makes landfall tonight.

Obviously, Erick will bring a high end hurricane impact to the coast of Mexico tonight near and especially east of where it comes ashore, which includes much of Oaxaca. But impacts will go far beyond just wind and surge. In fact, rainfall forecasts call for a total of 16 to 20 inches (400-500 mm) of rain in coastal Oaxaca.

Total rainfall expected from Erick. (NOAA WPC)

This will be a very bad night in coastal Oaxaca and portions of coastal Guerrero. Thought with folks there as the first big storm of the 2025 season bears down on Mexico.

Erick will dissipate over Mexico as it lifts north inland over the mountains.

Eastern U.S. heat wave upcoming

With the rest of the tropics quiet at this time, we’ll take a quick look at the upcoming heat wave that’s expected to unfurl over the Eastern United States. An extremely impressive and large area of sprawling high pressure is going to intensify and expand over the eastern half of the country this weekend and next week.

Very strong high pressure will expand and intensify next week in the East, allowing for some serious summer heat. (Pivotal Weather)

In some areas, it’ll be interesting to see just how strong this ridge gets, with the Euro ensemble suggesting that there’s a non-zero chance that upper level heights will reach all-time records.

A 20 to 30 percent probability of all-time record high 500 mb heights exists next week over the Mid-Atlantic. (Tomer Burg/PolarWx)

This type of heat event will likely threaten a number of records in the Midwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic next week. In fact, you can see based on current NWS forecasts (which are often somewhat conservative 6 to 7 days out), we’ve got several dozen record warm minimums forecast or threatened and several record highs as well.

Numerous record warm minimum temperatures are forecast on Tuesday. (NOAA)

It’s the nighttime minimum temperatures that never cool off that can separate a bad heat wave from an unbearably bad one. So seeing this many forecast records this far ahead of the event is impressive and concerning. Heat precautions will be advised next week in the East!

The pattern should relax some later in the week.

High five: Erick forms in the Pacific, likely to be a hurricane for southern Mexico

In brief: The Atlantic remains calm, while the Pacific churns out its fifth storm, this one probably the strongest of the season so far, headed for hurricane intensity. Severe weather should also impact Kansas today.

Moment of meteorological Zen

Image of one of the most photogenic tornadoes you’ll ever see by one of my favorite storm chasers. This occurred on Monday evening near Wellfleet, Nebraska. It appears this occurred over open land, and I cannot find any reports of damage. Truly awestriking.

Today’s tornado risk shifts into Kansas.

Severe weather risk is moderate (4/5) in Kansas today due to tornado risk, very, very strong wind risk, and large hail. (NOAA SPC)

Tornadoes take the cake, but strong winds are the story today. Wichita has already seen a 101 mph gust this morning! Additional powerful storms are likely later today with 80 mph winds or stronger possible from eastern Colorado into Kansas. Be safe there.

Pacific Tropical Storm Erick

We’ve added the fifth storm of the Pacific season to the list as of this morning. Tropical Storm Erick has formed, and this one has some higher side potential as it moves toward the western coast of Mexico.

(NOAA NHC)

The forecast from the NHC and some modeling is actually quite aggressive with Erick. The official forecast brings this up to a cat 2 with 100 mph winds by the time it makes landfall late tomorrow night. However, some tropical models do indicate the potential for Erick to become a borderline major hurricane by the time it reaches land.

This is one of those storms that’s going to induce impacts on a wide swath of coast because of its forecast track and the geography of Mexico. The longer that this stays over water, the stronger it could get, and the wider the impacts on the coast of Oaxaca and Guerrero. The current track keeps it east of Acapulco. But it will be a somewhat close call. Eventually, even if stays offshore, proximity to land will probably induce weakening, but Erick should be a pretty significant storm for southern Mexico, particularly in Oaxaca.

Rainfall forecast for Mexico and Guatemala from Erick showing perhaps a foot or more in portions of Oaxaca. (NOAA WPC)

In addition, the heavy rains will continue up the east coast of Mexico through Veracruz and possibly Tamaulipas as a Bay of Campeche disturbance gets absorbed into the mess.

Otherwise, we are not expecting any tropical development in the Atlantic this week.