Florida will be threatened by Tropical Depression 14, likely to become Hurricane Milton

Headlines

  • Tropical Depression 14 has formed this morning in the western Gulf of Mexico.
  • It is expected to rapidly intensify late this weekend or early next week into a borderline major hurricane.
  • That hurricane will threaten the west coast of Florida somewhere between the Big Bend and southwest Florida.
  • Impacts from the storm will be widespread across Florida, with heavy rain and flooding over a wide area, and storm surge risk depending on the exact track of the storm.
  • Folks across Florida should begin preparing now for a hurricane impact by later Tuesday or Wednesday.

Just a quick post this morning to lay the landscape out on a number of changes in the last 36 hours. We warned yesterday that odds of development had been increasing in such a way that it was becoming more likely that we’d see something, but even we did not anticipate how quickly things would escalate.

First, we now have Tropical Depression 14 in the western Gulf.

Tropical Depression 14 formed from a disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico today. (Weathernerds.org)

This was not expected to happen so quickly, but that has been the case here today. The National Hurricane Center’s first forecast for to-be Milton is for 110 mph winds and a track to the west coast of Florida.

The first bid on TD 14/future Milton shows a track into the west coast of Florida as a borderline major hurricane. (NOAA NHC)

First observation here: Do not focus on the specific track. Focus on the cone. We’ve seen a few instances of west coast of Florida landfalls in recent years, but historically almost none have come from the area where TD 14 is currently. So we’re in a unique scenario here. The geography of Florida is such that a storm into the west coast from this direction will have the worst storm surge on the south side of the storm as it makes landfall. But the worst wind would likely be on the north side. You’re looking at a multi-hazard scenario here. You’re also looking at an extremely vulnerable coastline just a couple weeks removed from Helene. People in Tampa are still cleaning up from surge damage, and now this is on the horizon. People in the Big Bend are still trying to begin recovery as well. While this will likely come ashore south and east of where Helene hit, there will be overlap of significant impacts between the two storms if this continues. Start preparing right now. Maybe this is a fluke or does something we don’t currently expect, but this storm will have an environment favorable for rapid intensification in the Gulf.

Tropical models are quite varied in terms of intensity, but the message we are seeing from the better performing models this season favors the upper half of the intensity curves here, close to where the NHC is forecasting right now. (Tropical Tidbits)

In addition to the potential for wind, surge, and marine hazards, the rainfall situation in Florida is quite messy now.

The rainfall forecast for Florida shows a widespread 5 to 10 inches likely, and higher amounts will be possible. Risks of heavy rain have increased north of I-4 as well now, including up through the Jacksonville area. (Pivotal Weather)

I think the Peninsula is now looking at a widespread 5 to 10 inches. The heaviest rain is shifting around a bit now with organized tropical development entering the picture. While, broadly, the heaviest rain will be south of I-4, there will likely be a corridor of heavy rain near or north of I-4 as well, possibly up into the Jacksonville area. Basically, the entire peninsula needs to prepare for heavy rain and flooding potential. Coastal areas need to prepare for more than that.

I’m going to stop there for now. It’s early in the game, relatively, and I don’t want to speculate too much on specific impacts, but the message is pretty clear today: Start preparing now in Florida for a potential major hurricane hit on the west coast. Eric is going to have another update late this afternoon or evening with the latest, and we’ll be with you into Sunday as well.

Gulf tropical development odds on the increase again with at least a heavy rain event coming to Florida

Headlines

  • Tropical development potential is increasing in the Gulf again, as moisture Sunday-Monday may precede an organized system next week.
  • It’s too soon to say exactly what may occur, but model agreement in something has increased rather significantly since yesterday.
  • Interests in Florida should prepare for heavy rain and flooding in the I-4 corridor and on the coast, and may need to begin to prepare for an eventual tropical system next week. Stay tuned this weekend.
  • Kirk is near or just past peak intensity now and Leslie is on the increase out in the open Atlantic, no threat to land.

Something may emerge from the Gulf sloppiness

We continue to watch with curiosity how exactly the Gulf situation will unfold. What we know for sure: A multi-day rain event is coming for the Florida Peninsula. What we don’t know? Just about everything else. Modeling seems to actually be reinvigorating the potential for some sort of formal development of this system in the Gulf. If we look at satellite today, we can at least see the early underpinnings of it, courtesy of the remnants of Pacific Tropical Depression 11.

A rather robust area of thunderstorms now sits in the Bay of Campeche, courtesy of Pacific TD 11’s remnants. Gradual organization of this system seems increasingly likely over the weekend. (Weathernerds.org)

The system sits just off the coast of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche. Almost all operational models now show at least some organization of this system by Sunday afternoon just northwest of the Yucatan. As it moves east northeast, it continues to develop on most modeling as well. We actually have a majority of Euro ensemble members showing some development by early Tuesday morning.

European ensemble members show likely slow development by Monday night or Tuesday morning in the western Gulf before things get swept east toward Florida. (Weathernerds.org)

Beyond this point, modeling seems to diverge. Some kill it off as just a rainstorm. Others keep it going and developing as a higher end tropical storm into Florida. I think there’s still plenty of uncertainty, but if we were close to writing this off yesterday, we need to take the concept of tropical development seriously today.

Aside from that, the potential for heavy rain and flooding both ahead of and with any tropical development is legitimate in the Florida Peninsula, primarily near or south of I-4. One wave should arrive Sunday into Monday, and then the next would arrive later Tuesday into Wednesday depending on how this evolves. Each wave will bring the potential for heavy rain, with a gradually increasing flood potential for Florida.

An increasing risk of flooding will build next week in Florida with or without tropical development in the Gulf. (NWS Miami)

Rain totals are still around 4 to 8 inches on average, especially on the coast and along the I-4 corridor, but some other inland locations will also have potential for heavy rain and flooding too. This will be a situation to follow closely this weekend in case of any sudden change in development chances.

Kirk flirts with Cat 5, Leslie ramping up

Hurricane Kirk blew up last night into a category 4 storm, and at times some of the remote sensing data we use to estimate intensity of storms that far from land indicated it was on the precipice of category 5 intensity. It still looks textbook today, again no threat to land thankfully.

Hurricane Kirk is straight outta the textbooks. (Colorado State CIRA)

Kirk has maximum sustained winds of 140 mph, and a slow weakening trend should begin this weekend. By next week, Kirk will be a distant memory.

Meanwhile, to Kirk’s southeast, Leslie is taking on some strength of its own. Now a 65 mph tropical storm, Leslie is expected to become a hurricane this weekend, possibly close to a major hurricane. It has a few more hurdles than Kirk had, including Kirk itself. But I suspect it’ll be a healthy storm soon.

Leslie is a much smaller storm southeast of Kirk, but it too is expected to chug out to sea as a hurricane next week. (Weathernerds.org)

Beyond these two storms and a potential one in the Gulf, we have nothing else to really speculate on right now.

Gulf tropical development risks remain modest as focus points to a Florida Peninsula rainstorm

Headlines

  • Tropical development in the Gulf remains possible but not entirely likely over the next 5 days or so.
  • Regardless, the combination of a couple disturbances and the remnants of Pacific TD 11 will combine to produce significant moisture tracking toward the Florida Peninsula.
  • Heavy rain and some flooding are possible there, especially at the coast and south of I-4 next week.
  • Hurricane Kirk is nearing category 4 intensity in the open Atlantic, no threat to land.
  • Tropical Storm Leslie will slowly organize and may track a bit farther south and west than Kirk but most likely not threaten land.

Gulf development risks slowly backsliding, but heavy rain chances in Florida increasing

We are down to a 30 percent chance of tropical development in the Gulf today, as we continue to watch for disorganized thunderstorms in the area over the next few days. I still think this area will have a chance to develop next week, and many models show development of low pressure into something akin to a depression by early next week.

Very disorganized and patchy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean and western Gulf of Mexico will continue for a few more days before advancing east toward the Florida Peninsula. (Weathernerds.org)

Today, there’s nothing at all today. We have a cluster of storms south of Cuba and another one in the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf of Mexico. No imminent development is likely from this. Wind shear looks to be a bit much right now, and that may be the biggest limiting factor in any development out of this area. I would say odds of a named storm are quite low from all this, but odds of an invest or depression are moderate still.

What this will do, however, is deliver rain to the Florida Peninsula. Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday look quite wet. Atmospheric moisture is going to load up over Florida, with precipitable water values (or how much available moisture there is) up around the 90th percentile for early October, or around 175 percent of normal. Between the two disturbances noted above, the remnants of Tropical Depression 11 in the Pacific will enter the fray as well.

Precipitable water, or how much moisture is available in the atmosphere will be up around 175 percent of normal early next week in Florida. (Weather Bell)

This translates to a lot of moisture available for heavy rainfall. Not everywhere in Florida will get dumped on. But there will be heavy rain around and if you have vacation plans, all I can say is to keep tabs on the forecast early next week and consider some indoor activities. Current rain totals look to be on the order of 4 to 8 inches through next week, with the highest amounts on the immediate coast and south of I-4. North of there through Jacksonville or Gainesville looks to be a bit less impacted.

The heaviest rains look to be on the immediate coast and south of I-4 next week in Florida, where 4 to 8 inches of rain may fall. (Pivotal Weather)

We’ll keep tabs on this for potential flooding. At this point, we remain fairly unconcerned with any other tropical impacts, other than rip currents which are always a consideration with a disturbance in the Gulf.

Atlantic racking up cyclone intensity

Meanwhile, the open Atlantic is bustling with Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie. Neither storm is a threat to land.

Kirk is a major, category 3 hurricane, heading for cat 4 intensity, while Leslie is expected to trail Kirk as a hurricane of its own. (Tomer Burg)

Kirk is about as classic looking as it gets, albeit with a relatively large eye.

Hurricane Kirk has maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, making it a strong category 3 hurricane, likely headed to mid-end cat 4 intensity. (Tropical Tidbits)

Hurricane Kirk should peak in intensity tomorrow before slowly weakening as it goes north and northeast out to sea. Modeling is in decent agreement that this will avoid the Azores on its way out right now.

Leslie is a little sloppier right now, but it too should intensify into a hurricane eventually this weekend. It will trail Kirk a little farther to the south and west. There is a very, very, very slight chance that Leslie could gain enough longitude to perhaps deliver some fringe impacts to the islands at some point, but that’s unlikely and a long way off. We’ll keep an eye on things.

The good news is that once Kirk and Leslie exit and the Gulf system is out of the picture later next week, I don’t quite know what would be next. There are no model signals of any real strong sort that point to the next system to watch. So perhaps we get a little break. Could it be the final break and the season is over? Maybe, maybe not. But with such warm water still out there, a November storm somewhere would be unsurprising this year.

Gulf development may ultimately end up heading to Florida as a cold front dives south early next week

Headlines

  • Disorganized showers and storms over the Gulf will become a disturbance this weekend. It will likely track east toward Florida.
  • The current thinking is that it will have a low ceiling of intensity, but it may be a significant rain maker, especially on the coast (both west and east coast of Florida).
  • Hurricane Kirk should become a category 4 storm over the next couple days in the open Atlantic, no threat to land.
  • Tropical Depression 13 has formed behind Kirk and should become Leslie, also no threat to land.

Gulf potential still there

We continue to monitor the chances of Gulf development. Although the NHC maintains a 40 percent chance this morning, I suspect that may be slowly increasing again. If we look at satellite imagery, we see two disorganized disturbances right now; one in the Bay of Campeche and another in the northwest Caribbean.

Disorganized thunderstorm activity is a little more widespread today than it has been. (Weathernerds.org)

The overall environment is somewhat favorable for development, but there’s just no order to any of this right now, so any sort of organization would proceed slowly. Over the next couple days, we’ll likely see this lift north and sort of merge in the Gulf, becoming one disorganized disturbance near or north of the Yucatan. By the time we get to Sunday, we should have an invest or some sort of surface low pressure system in the central Gulf of Mexico.

Surface low pressure should develop by Sunday in the central Gulf. Note the cold fronts over the Southeast and Central US, however. (NOAA WPC)

This will sit there while a weak front in the Southeast and a slightly more robust front in the Plains and Mid-South drop southward toward the Gulf on Monday and Tuesday. What this means is that whatever this becomes will likely get pushed eastward toward Florida. Unlike Helene which came northward, this one seems more likely to have an easterly bend in its track toward the Peninsula. By Tuesday morning, we likely have some sort of system, be it still an invest or perhaps a tropical depression sitting just off the west coast of Florida.

Low pressure will probably be just west of Tampa next Tuesday as twin cold fronts push it eastward. Intensity appears to be weak, but it will have a lot of rain with it. (NOAA WPC)

Based on most modeling, there is decent growing agreement in some sort of weak low moving into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday or so. I don’t expect this to be a hurricane right now, but a tropical storm is a possibility, and this will certainly carry a good deal of rain across Florida as well. Expect marine impacts, rip currents, and breezy conditions next week if you’re visiting Florida. Rain totals are pretty steady day over day, though isolated higher amounts closer to 10 inches will be possible on either the Gulf Coast or East Coast of Florida next week.

Rain totals of 4 to 8 inches seem reasonable next week in Florida, mainly between Tampa and Fort Myers or West Palm Beach and Daytona Beach along the coast. Interior areas may also see heavy rainfall, but the highest totals will be on the coastline. (Pivotal Weather)

So, at this point in Florida, you’re probably looking at a swimming and marine hazard risk, along with the potential for flash flooding from rainfall, especially on the coast. Obviously the West Coast does not need to hear more about any flooding, but it’s a possibility to monitor. Surge impacts would probably be light to moderate from this. Obviously if this can find a way to intensify further, we’re looking at a different outcome. At present, modeling is in good agreement on the scenario outlined above being the likely one. But as always continue to monitor forecasts for any changes.

Atlantic twins ahead

Hurricane Kirk is now expected to become a category 4 storm in the next couple of days as it wanders over the open Atlantic.

Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Depression 13 (southeast of Kirk) taking up residence in the eastern Atlantic. (Colorado State, CIRA)

Kirk should go beast mode out in the open Atlantic the next couple days, while TD 13 slowly gathers steam. Modeling is a bit less aggressive with 13, but we should at least see Tropical Storm and eventually Hurricane Leslie form. It, too, is expected to remain out at sea, not far from Kirk. Neither are threats to land.

Behind these two, there are no signs of any meaningful disturbances at this time. Hopefully we can enter a period of calm in mid-October, but we’ll see if anything else shows itself in the days ahead.