Low pressure off the coast of the Carolinas will focus heavy rainfall this week, particularly in eastern North Carolina, along with some coastal flooding and rough seas.
Tropical Storm Gordon remains well out at sea, of no concern to anyone.
We continue to see hints that a system may make an effort to develop in the Caribbean after this week, but details remain elusive.
Carolina soaker
Low pressure and an associated trough off the coast of the Carolinas today is flinging rain back into southeastern North Carolina and the Myrtle Beach areas in South Carolina.
Low pressure sits offshore of South Carolina, and as it drifts northwestward, it will bring a dose of heavy rainfall to North Carolina in particular. (NOAA WPC)
This area of low pressure has an outside chance to form into a tropical entity before coming ashore in North or South Carolina tonight or tomorrow. Whether it does or does not, the impacts should be fairly well baked in right now, which is to say heavy rain, rough seas, some minor coastal flooding and erosion, and breezy conditions are likely in the Carolinas. Depending on the exact track of the storm, we’ll see where the heaviest rainfall sets up.
Rain totals of 3 to 7 inches are likely in eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia, as well as in parts of the Blue Ridge this week. (Pivotal Weather)
Total rainfall should be highest in eastern North Carolina, where 3 to 7 inches is possible. There will also probably be a localized maximum of rainfall in the northern Blue Ridge in Virginia as well. A large area of moderate rain this week will surround all this from South Jersey into the Triad in North Carolina.
This system will linger onshore for a few days, so it only has about 18 to 24 hours left to formally develop if it does at all.
Deep tropics
Tropical Storm Gordon is likely to get downgraded to a depression soon. It may linger in the open Atlantic for a few days before it perhaps finds a more hospitable environment to reorganize later this week.
It’s the Gord*D*on’s fisherman. (NOAA NHC)
Either way, it will remain out at sea, no threat to land.
Behind Gordon, we have no concerns over the next week or so in the eastern Atlantic.
Caribbean watch
This week will be quiet in the Caribbean as well. However, there continue to be signs and signals that something may get going there after this week. It’s all conjecture at this point, but there’s enough there there to keep us at least paying attention in that region after this week. Not much else to say on this right now. More to come on this through the week though I am sure.
A low pressure system in the Southeast is a tricky forecast but likely to cause heavy rain and flooding concerns next week in the Carolinas or Virginia, as well as marine impacts.
Longer-range modeling suggests that we’ll be watching the Caribbean and Atlantic closer in about 2 weeks.
Of note for our Houston readers (or other interested parties), over at Space City Weather, Eric posted about the “western shift” in Francine’s forecast on Monday that, if anyone follows me on social media knows exasperated me. The reality is that hurricane forecasts are subject to change, and although the Beryl forecast was mediocre at best, especially a few days ahead of the storm, every storm is unique. No two storms follow the same exact rules, and if we see a reason to expand a region of concern, we will. I saw social media posts emphasizing a dramatic western shift, a specific concern of a threat of “more impacts to Houston,” among other poor takes across social media from weather enthusiasts and (importantly!) meteorologists alike. It’s exhausting, but we will continue to operate this site as we have since inception and as we operate Space City Weather, which is to say with honesty, transparency about the data and our thinking, and accountability when we get it wrong.
Tropical Storm Gordon & friends
Storm number seven of the Atlantic hurricane season has formed, with Tropical Storm Gordon out in the open Atlantic. It is of no threat to land.
Tropical Storm Gordon will swim with the fishes. (NOAA NHC)
Gordon looks decent on satellite imagery this morning, but it is so far north that it will eventually run into dry air and likely suffer the consequences. Of note, it appears the Gordon will be the first storm of the Atlantic hurricane season to miss land.
Meanwhile, the two invest areas approaching the Caribbean have become one invest area. Invest 92L is gone, but Invest 94L has maybe a very, very slight chance to briefly form this weekend before it likely has to deal with too much land.
Southeast low pressure to cause headaches
The Southeast coast will be an area to continue to watch heading into next week. Tomorrow and Sunday will see a cold front slide off the Southeast coast with an area of low pressure spinning up along its remnants.
Surface map forecast for Saturday in the Southeast. (NOAA WPC)
This won’t be a “true” tropical system, but it may eventually try to develop into a subtropical-type storm or depression off the coast. In general, it would track generally slowly northward or northwestward. Although this probably won’t be a true tropical system, it will probably behave like a tropical storm or decent nor’easter off the Carolina coast. This means heavy rain and coastal impacts will be possible. So don’t focus on classification nuance here. Current rainfall forecasts show upwards of 4 to 8 inches over the next week on the coast of North Carolina.
Heavy rain is likely over the next week or so in the Carolinas and possibly Virginia due to low pressure off the coast. (Pivotal Weather)
Depending on exactly how this unfolds and tracks, there could be a pretty significant flooding threat in the Carolinas next week, in addition to rough seas, beach erosion, and tidal flooding risk. Rip currents will also be strong this weekend. Stay tuned for more on this. We’ll have an update on Sunday for you.
Notably, after praising the ECMWF AI (AIFS) model and ICON yesterday, those models are struggling with this area as well, so this is a low confidence situation.
Late September: It may get busier
Looking down the road, there is reason to believe that the Atlantic may be shaping up to get a bit busier. We can have some pretty wild Octobers. Just look to 2020 for evidence of that. After weeks of a background of sinking air over the Atlantic basin, the background is likely to shift to more rising air. This supports and sustains tropical development. It may help reduce some of the drier air that has plagued the basin as well. In general, it just looks healthier for more activity after next week.
One area that models are honing in on is the western Caribbean. We’re seeing signals on the ensembles and the European AIFS model for some sort of spin up possibly occurring there in about 12 to 14 days. It has been showing up for a couple days now, and this overall shift to a more hospitable pattern supports it happening. The ECMWF sub-seasonal/weeklies model from yesterday shows above normal tropical activity in week 3 today.
Above normal activity is forecast in the Atlantic in late September and early October. (ECMWF)
This is the first time I’ve seen this in a while, which seems to indicate that this idea of a possible Caribbean system or more Atlantic activity in general is actually supported in the models too, not just theoretically. So, it’s still a couple weeks out, but this gives you an idea of where we’ll be looking as we head toward later September.
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Francine will likely produce flash flooding, particularly in Alabama and Tennessee over the next couple days.
We recap Francine below with info on how AI modeling did and why New Orleans saw worse conditions than expected earlier in the day.
The Atlantic looks more active than it actually is, with two invests that should not develop and one depression that may become a named storm and stay out at sea.
A subtropical or tropical system may form off the Southeast coast next week.
Thanks to folks in Louisiana that followed along with us through Francine, and we hope you’ll spread the word and stick with us. We did experiment with a new format yesterday by updating the AM post instead of pushing new posts all day. Any feedback is appreciated.
Francine recap
With Francine down to depression status and dissipating, I want to just point out a couple odds and ends related to the storm.
Current forecast
The rainfall forecast for the rest of the week is pretty stout in the Southeast, with as much as 6 to 8 inches of rain possible across portions of Alabama and Tennessee.
Rainfall over the next 3 days from Francine’s remnants could drop as much as 6 to 8 inches or more across Alabama and portions of Tennessee, leading to flash flooding. (NOAA WPC)
Flash flooding and localized severe weather will be the primary impacts of Francine’s remnants over the interior. A good idea to remain weather aware, particularly between Birmingham and Huntsville due to flooding.
AI modeling & ICON scores a big win
I went through and assessed the 15 model runs leading up to landfall from various models with Francine. Keep in mind that the landfall point is not the only variable that matters, but it’s an important one. And one thing you cannot tolerate as a forecaster is a lot of whipping around within the models. Enter the European AI model, the AIFS. Here are the 15 runs leading up to landfall with Francine:
AIFS model 15 runs leading up to landfall with Francine. (Tropical Tidbits)
This is a remarkable feat of stability. The AIFS showed landfall between Vermilion Bay and Grand Isle run after run after run. Ultimately, it came in on the eastern half of that spread, but the consistency was some of the best I have ever seen with respect to a tropical system. The timing and intensity bounced around a bit, but not so much as to make the tool useless. It had immense value, and it’s one of the reasons we were very bullish about this not being a serious Texas concern. This was a lesson learned from Beryl. And not to be outdone, the ICON also showed a healthy amount of stability run to run in terms of track.
ICON model for 15 runs leading up to landfall with Francine. (Tropical Tidbits)
While the ICON kept western Louisiana in play for a while, it too corrected east in time. This, combined with its performance during Beryl (as well as last week with Invest 90L) made it another valuable tool. Will these models fail in the future? Yes, all models do. And the ICON remains prone to spurious tropical systems that never end up happening. But at this point, I think there’s a lesson to be taken from this as a meteorologist. particularly when the models show this sort of stability. The GFS and Euro operational model (and the ensemble guidance) also performed respectably, but those models showed less consistency run to run than did the ICON and AIFS.
Last minute lurch to New Orleans
In yesterday’s morning post, we noted the forecast for New Orleans showed maximum wind gusts forecast to be 57 mph. They gusted to 78 mph. The reason was twofold. First, the storm had a quick late burst of intensification (in the face of wind shear no less) on approach to landfall. This led to an eastward shift at the last minute. Instead of coming in right at Atchafalaya Bay, it came in a more of a slanted angle just east of there. This, coupled with the stronger intensity pushed the eyewall into the New Orleans metro area leading to wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph. Hurricane forecasting remains imperfect.
Of note, thus far the highest wind gust I have seen is 96 mph in Dulac, LA. There were two 100 mph gusts south of Burns Point, LA, but those I believe were on elevated oil platforms which would have higher winds than at surface level. The highest rain total was in Mandeville, at just over 9 inches. New Orleans saw over 8 inches in the city. Officially, they reported 7.33 inches at the airport, the 9th wettest day on record there.
Atlantic action amplifies
Turning our attention back to current matters, let’s take a look at the Atlantic this afternoon.
It’s less busy than it looks, really. (NOAA NHC)
There are two invest, a tropical depression, and an area to watch in the Atlantic today. We’ll cover the area to watch below. But in the meantime, Invests 92L and 94L just east of the Caribbean are not really of any concern. Those should dissipate before acquiring the ability to develop. So nothing to see here right now.
Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 7 will probably make an attempt to become Tropical Storm Gordon, which somehow hasn’t been retired, despite being used since 1994 in perhaps its most memorable iteration. But Gordo will probably remain out at sea.
TD 7/future Gordon’s track. (NOAA NHC)
Otherwise, the Atlantic is quiet for now.
Southeast system next week?
Things may get interesting next week, to an extent, off the Southeast coast as a remnant cold front could help spawn a disturbance off the Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina coast.
This morning’s GFS model shows a disturbance off the Carolina coast as early as Friday night. (Tropical Tidbits)
Exactly how this evolves is a bit tricky since remnant fronts tend to be a little difficult to exactly predict. But in general, watch for a disturbance to form off the Southeast coast. Because it’s forming from a front, it would probably be non-tropical or “subtropical” in nature. It may have some time to develop into a tropical system over the Southeast coast’s warm waters early next week before likely coming ashore somewhere in the Carolinas. Intensity-wise, it’s a bit early to get too cutesy, but this would probably be slow to organize and develop, so it would probably be a tropical storm at most. But regardless, watch for heavy rain risk next week in the Southeast due to this system. More to come.
We will leave it there for now, but tomorrow we’ll talk a bit more about the longer-range and why things may start getting busy again by the end of September.
9 PM CT Update: Severe flash flooding is ongoing in the New Orleans metro area. There is a flash flood emergency posted for portions of Orleans, St John the Baptist, St Charles, and Jefferson Parishes. The NSSL’s MRMS tool is useful because you can quickly see areas where excessive rainfall is likely occurring or has just occurred by using the CREST product. Blue and white coloring is about as bad as it gets.
(NOAA MRMS)
And that’s what we have over the western portions of the New Orleans metro area and south shore of Lake Pontchartrain right now. The flash flood emergency goes until 11:45 PM CT. Some videos I’ve seen circulating on social media show some pretty wicked flooding ongoing due to the rainfall. Shelter in place until things settle down. The good news is that the worst of the rain is exiting, but it will take some time for all the water to flush through the system. Flash flooding concerns will expand to the Northshore and into Mississippi.
(RadarScope)
Francine is down to 75 mph as of the 8 PM position report and should be at tropical storm strength with the next advisory. That said, winds are still gusting to 60 mph in the New Orleans area and even 64 mph back west toward Donaldsonville. Almost 300,000 customers are without power now.
This will be our last regular update of the evening. We’ll have a full recap and post on what else is going on in the tropics tomorrow morning. Thanks for following along! -Matt
7 PM CT Update: We’ve seen wind gusts up and over 60 mph now on the southwest side of the New Orleans metro area. Entergy is currently reporting about 125,000 customers without power right now. According to poweroutage.us, there are about 140,000 out statewide. Radar as of 7 PM shows intense rainfall occurring just southwest of New Orleans, along Highway 90 moving into St. Charles Parish. Intense rainfall will move into metro New Orleans over the next hour or so.
(RadarScope)
Francine’s winds are down to 85 mph, with continued weakening expected through the night.
5:30 PM CT Update: Francine has made landfall this evening in Terrebonne Parish south southwest of Morgan City as a category 2 hurricane. The storm is moving inland now, and it appears that it is tracking a bit east of where it was expected to go. The northeast portion of the eyewall is about to move into New Orleans. We’ve seen wind gusts mostly in the 50 to 65 mph range with this areas as it comes northeast, but it will get a bit nasty in New Orleans over the next hour or two.
(RadarScope)
The highest wind gust I found was 105 mph near Eugene Island in Atchafalaya Bay. Heavy rainfall is occurring with this as well as it comes northeastward, leading to a few flash flood warnings southwest of New Orleans. These will likely expand northeast in time as well. Hunker down in southeast Louisiana and the New Orleans area for the next few hours.
4 PM CT Update: Francine is now a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph.
3:30 PM CT Update
Francine was about 60 miles SSW of Morgan City, LA and approaching the coast with its eyewall.
The eyewall of Francine approaching Morgan City and Houma, LA. (RadarScope)
Conditions will rapidly deteriorate as this area moves ashore. The eyewall contains the strongest winds of the storm, so look for wind gusts to kick up in the area around Morgan City, Houma, and elsewhere in southern Louisiana soon.
Wind gusts have hit as high as 70 mph near Eugene Island, LA. New Orleans is in the 40s to near 50 mph now. Offshore oil platforms have registered 100 mph, but given their elevation, it is likely that those winds are a decent bit lower at ground level on land.
Wind gusts as high as 70 mph have occurred in far southern Louisiana. Winds in New Orleans have gusted close to 50 mph. (NOAA)
Francine is moving off to the northeast, if not east-northeast around 17 mph, and it should make landfall within the next 90 minutes to 2 hours, probably just south of Houma. It will then steadily weaken as it moves inland. That said, the eyewall will come close to the New Orleans area, so winds may ramp up there further in about 2 hours.
1 PM CT Update: Tropical Storm warnings dropped west of Cameron, LA
12:30 PM CT Update
Hurricane Francine continues to approach the Louisiana coast this afternoon.
Francine’s en route to the Louisiana coast near the Atchafalaya Basin (College of DuPage)
Thus far, wind gust reports have been relatively pedestrian with only 30 to 40 mph reports on the immediate coast. Oil platforms offshore are elevated and poor barometers of surface winds, but some of those have seen 80 to 100 mph gusts at times, so Francine remains capable of producing some pretty nasty wind. Still, it’s tough to not notice that it’s struggling somewhat due to dry air and shear. So hopefully the outcomes will be manageable, given the situation.
Peak wind gusts so far today have maxed out around 30 to 40 mph in portions of southern and southeast Louisiana. These will increase in the coming hours. (NOAA)
Conditions will continue to deteriorate across southern and southeast Louisiana this afternoon, so it’s probably a good idea to get where you want to be during the storm very soon and stay there til it passes tonight.
10 AM CT Update
No major changes in track or intensity with the 10 AM update from NHC. Francine is stated to have an open eyewall, as it’s beginning to feel some of the significant wind shear on the Gulf Coast. While Francine will remain a significant, dangerous storm, its intensity may have peaked now.
Francine’s eyewall showing up at the bottom of the Lake Charles radar image this morning. (Weathernerds.org)
Francine is still on track for a landfall near the Atchafalaya Delta or just east late this afternoon or early this evening.
Our previous post from 7 AM follows below:
Headlines
Francine make its initial approach to the Louisiana coast as a high-end category 1 hurricane.
Francine will make landfall late this afternoon or evening, likely between the Atchafalaya Delta and Port Fourchon.
Significant wind and surge issues are likely at the coast with lesser impacts inland but tropical storm force winds and power outages a good bet between Lafayette and coastal Mississippi.
4 to 8 inches of rain expected in Louisiana and southern Mississippi with flash flooding likely in spots.
Francine will slam on the brakes near Memphis but should basically just die off in place with scattered rains the rest of this week across the Southeast.
4 AM CT advisory, warnings, and track. (NOAA NHC)
Francine now
Hurricane Francine has 90 mph maximum sustained winds this morning, as it did some work overnight to get more organized. It has a few hours left to gain some more intensity before it runs into dry air and wind shear that will likely take its toll on the storm.
Hurricane Francine is not the most well-organized storm we’ve ever seen, but it did some work putting itself together overnight. (Tropical Tidbits)
Francine’s outer rain shield has pushed ashore, mainly south of I-10 in Louisiana so far. Rain will continue to spread inland today.
Francine’s forecast and impacts
As of the 4 AM CT advisory, Francine was moving northeast at 10 mph. This speed should pick up some through the day. On its current track, a landfall between the Atchafalaya Delta and Port Fourchon seems most likely. That should occur late this afternoon or evening. As noted, rain has begun to overspread Louisiana, mainly east of Cameron and Lake Charles, and that will continue today. Rain totals of 4 to 8 inches in the Atchafalaya Basin and into parts of Mississippi. Rainfall will be 4 to 6 inches in New Orleans east to the Florida Panhandle.
The rain forecast for Francine shows peak totals west of New Orleans. (NOAA WPC)
Flash flooding is likely in spots, and the Weather Prediction Center has a moderate risk (level 3 of 4) for flash flooding risk in much of southeastern Louisiana and portions of southern Mississippi.
A moderate risk of flash flooding (level 3/4) is in place for eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi today. (NOAA WPC)
In addition to excessive rainfall, we expect to see isolated tornadoes today, and a slight risk (level 2/5) for severe storms exists in eastern Louisiana, extending east to the Florida Panhandle.
In terms of wind, the highest risk will be right at the coast, obviously. As you push inland, we’ll see hurricane-force wind risk extend into Morgan City, Houma, and perhaps extreme southwest portions of the New Orleans metro. New Orleans proper should see moderate to high-end tropical storm force winds, as will Baton Rouge, perhaps Lafayette, and up into portions of southern Mississippi.
Wind risk is highest on the immediate coast near landfall with hurricane force winds extending into portions of southern Louisiana, mainly south and southwest of Baton Rouge and New Orleans respectively. (NOAA NWS)
As we did yesterday, here are the current forecast maximum wind gusts as of 6:45 CT based on official National Weather Service forecasts.
Storm surge will continue to be an issue as well with 5 to 10 foot surge expected on the Louisiana coast between Vermilion Bay and Port Fourchon. While the surge drops off east of there, it remains fairly substantial all the way to the Florida border, including a 2 to 4 foot surge in Mobile and 4 to 6 foot surge in Mississippi and in Lake Pontchartrain.
Storm surge will be at maximum between Vermilion Bay and Port Fourchon at 5 to 10 feet. Lake Pontchartrain should see a 4 to 6 foot surge. (NOAA NHC)
Beyond the coast, Francine will accelerate north into Mississippi, but it will slam on the brakes (as a non-tropical storm) just south or west of Memphis. As it just sort of sits, spins, and dies off, periods of scattered showers and storms will impact parts of the Southeast through the rest of the week off and on. No serious flooding is expected at this time, but it’ll be a good idea to keep tabs on things in Georgia, Tennessee, and Alabama perhaps heading into the weekend.
No other land concerns in the tropics right now. We’ll have another update before evening today.
