The deep Atlantic is waking up earlier than usual this year, while 94L in the Caribbean tries to find a pathway to develop

Headlines

  • Invest 94L in the Caribbean is unlikely to develop, but if it tracks a bit to the north, it has a puncher’s chance in the Bay of Campeche.
  • A robust signal in modeling exists for the tropical wave around 30°W in the Atlantic to organize as it tracks toward the islands next week.
  • The wave behind that is worth watching as well.

Invest 94L’s Caribbean cruise looks mostly uneventful

Yesterday, I noted that June would end on a quiet note. Well, “quiet” is a relative term. We have two systems to watch right now, and Invest 94L is the closest to land at the moment. If you look at it on satellite around midday Wednesday, you probably are not terribly impressed.

Invest 94L at midday on Tuesday was mostly just a blob of thunderstorms. (Tropical Tidbits)

The system is sort of split right now between high shear to its north and more hospitable shear to its south. This basically means that it has a chance to organize over the next few days, but it would be fairly unlikely and certainly with limited upside to intensity. This situation isn’t going to change much before it runs into Central America or the Yucatan this weekend.

I think Invest 94L’s best chance to organize may come if it crosses into the Bay of Campeche, something the Euro suggests will occur. The GFS model keeps the system really disorganized and basically over Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend. If the Euro is correct, 94L will emerge in the Bay of Campeche later on Saturday and progress into Mexico, a la the last couple of systems in this area.

European model look at mid-level “spin” in the atmosphere on Saturday evening shows 94L in the Bay of Campeche. The GFS is notably farther south and over land. The Euro scenario offers a narrow opportunity for development. (Tropical Tidbits)

It would have a narrow window to organize before coming ashore if the Euro is correct as shown above. I would probably split the difference between the two at this point, keeping a very slim chance it can get organized before heading inland. Either way, additional rain is possible in the Yucatan and Mexico from Invest 94L as it comes west.

The Atlantic is priming itself to run ahead of schedule

More attention will probably be focused on the deep Atlantic heading into next week however. A tropical wave was located around 30°W longitude today, tracking west.

A tropical wave southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands will be one to watch over the next 7 to 10 days. (Weathernerds.org)

The National Hurricane Center assigned 30 percent odds of development to this wave over the next week, which seems like a good opening volley. Modeling has been fairly aggressive with this, as both a number of GFS and European model ensemble members try to spin this one up into a depression or storm by the time it gets to the Caribbean islands. It would be rare but not totally unheard of to see a system form out here this early in the season. Per Kieran Bhatia, a leading hurricane expert in the insurance industry, only two systems have formed east of 51°W longitude in June since 1960, most recently Elsa in 2021. Whether this forms in June or the first days of July, if at all is still up for debate, of course. But it is worth watching.

Currently, this wave is located in an area with a lot of dry air to the north as Saharan dust expands across the Atlantic. In about 3 days, that situation does not really change. The Euro and GFS are generally similar about 3 days from now, showing this wave trying to organize east of the islands and very, very far south in the basin.

Saturday morning’s forecast shows the wave around 10°N latitude, trying to organize but with a lot of dry air to its north. (Tropical Tidbits)

The wave is cruising along around or just south of 10 degrees latitude, a region in which only a handful of June and July storms have generally developed.

The black line is roughly 10°N latitude, with all June and July storms since the 1800s plotted in the general vicinity of where this wave is expected to be on Saturday. Only a handful have formed this far south and east. (NOAA)

These storms ended up with mixed outcomes, including a couple hurricanes, a couple dissipating in the Caribbean, and a couple making it toward the Gulf. No strong signal exists either way. Whatever the case, the story with this wave’s southern track is that it may benefit its long-term ability to organize. If it can consolidate as a smaller system farther south, it would be more likely to incubate itself from the dry air and dust to its north, giving it an opportunity to slowly intensify as it works toward the Caribbean. If it fails to do this, it will likely struggle with dry air or wind shear, also expected to be present.

Main development region (MDR) sea-surface temperatures are currently at or above records for the end of June. (University of Arizona)

One reason to watch this one is that our sea-surface temperatures in the region are running at or above records set last year and near levels that are normal for late August. So if it finds the right environment, it has a chance to grow. I don’t want to speculate on where it goes just yet, but suffice to say, while wind shear could ultimately threaten its ability to grow significantly, it’s a little concerning to see the potential of this happening early in the season and so far east, with decent upside risk. Folks in the Caribbean should monitor this disturbance’s progress and check back for updates.

Also, the wave behind this one has shown up at times on modeling with a development opportunity. I wouldn’t worry much about it at this point, but its worth watching as well. The Atlantic seems to think its later July.

June should end on a relatively quiet note in the Atlantic tropics

Thanks for bearing with us over the last couple days as your primary author took a few days up in Chicago for only marginally cooler weather than Houston and nearly found himself in an EF-0 tornado. We are back and rolling now.

Headlines

  • A disturbance in the Caribbean has a 20 percent chance of development over the next week as it tracks toward Central America or the Yucatan.
  • Another potential wave behind it is worth watching into next week, but Saharan dust may play a role in this one.
  • Today’s post also gives you some other recommended reading during hurricane season.

Disturbances and dust

We are one named storm and a couple disturbances into what was expected to be a very, very active Atlantic hurricane season. So is it trending to a bust, as I’ve seen some rumblings of lately? It’s important to remember that June’s outcomes do not have any real significant bearing on what the rest of hurricane season will bring. By total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), we are only 1.6 percent of the way through the season climatologically. So over 98 percent of the season awaits in terms of that metric. It’s a marathon.

We have one disturbance coming across the Caribbean with about a 20 percent chance of development over the next week or so.

The disturbance being monitored for development is just entering the Caribbean above South America. (Weathernerds.org)

Despite the look on satellite, weather modeling is not overeager about this disturbance’s future. It’s expected to basically maintain this track west-northwest toward Central America or the Yucatan, following in the general footsteps of Alberto and Invest 93L this past weekend. We’ll continue to monitor this one, but at this point it’s not expected to become a serious problem.

Elsewhere, we don’t currently expect development over the next week or so. Modeling is beginning to hint at an Atlantic disturbance sometime next week, but it’s far too early to speculate on potential development or down-the-road impacts.

Saharan dust is pretty widespread over the Atlantic now, so that may be a limiting factor in future tropical development next week. (University of Wisconsin CIMSS)

Meanwhile, we have a healthy blast of Saharan dust, not atypical for June spreading across the Atlantic. That may very well be a player in any potential development next week. Stay tuned.

Shopping around for other weather experts

One question I am often asked is “Who else do you recommend I follow?” We obviously want folks to follow us, but I strongly encourage people to have multiple sources to use for weather information. Find a few that fit your consumption habits best and lean on them.

In general, it’s a tough question. There are so many voices in the field of meteorology, particularly on social media that deserve to be elevated, and I try to do this where possible and include some of their work here when it’s topical. But today I just want to shout out a few who provide daily or relatively frequent tropical updates through the season that I feel are worth your time to read or subscribe to.

You may remember Michael Lowry from his time on The Weather Channel, but he currently works as the hurricane and storm surge expert for WPLG in South Florida. He also publishes a daily tropical update on Substack that you should subscribe to. He and I see eye to eye (pun intended) on a lot of weather communication topics, and he’s one of the best in the field at cutting through the noise and focusing on impacts, a critical need today.

Dr. Jeff Masters developed a beloved hurricane blog and audience at Weather Underground through much of the 2000s. He and Bob Henson have found their way over to Yale Climate Connections “Eye on the Storm” blog. For most hardcore weather enthusiasts, you know exactly what you’ll get from those two. For those new to them, just take my advice and follow them both. Two of the best to ever do it.

Another source you should consider following: Weather Tiger, also known as Dr. Ryan Truchelut. He earned his stripes at Florida State University and has been writing about tropical weather for a number of years, frequently cited in USA Today. He has a free and paid option on Substack, and you’ll find his work engaging, enlightening, and entertaining.

I recommend these three sources specifically because they’re easily accessible, good character people, they do phenomenal work, and they all have a lengthy history of publishing high quality, trustworthy content on weather, climate, and specifically the tropics.

I want to also be clear that I have obviously left some sources out and also that not every excellent communicative meteorologist or tropical expert is a prolific writer. In a future post, I want to also highlight some social media follows and those with websites that have data, posts, or imagery that may be of interest as well from the same caliber individuals as above. Look for that soon.

Alberto ashore as attention shifts to the next Gulf system and the little one off Florida

Headlines

  • Alberto made landfall in Mexico this morning, with heavy rains continuing for some areas.
  • The system behind Alberto will likely track similarly but the northern extent of impacts will be much less this time around.
  • Invest 92L off Florida has about 24 hours to get together before coming ashore in Florida or Georgia.

Alberto makes landfall in Mexico

Tropical Storm Alberto came ashore this morning in Mexico near Tampico as it continues to deliver pockets of heavy rain, gusty winds, and tidal flooding.

Alberto is over Mexico now, dumping very heavy rain in parts of the country. (Tropical Tidbits)

The heaviest rain by far is in northeast Mexico, which has the potential to see up to another foot of rainfall. Serious flooding will be possible in spots, even if a lot of this rain is generally beneficial. It’s almost never all good news with these things.

Alberto’s rainfall is expected to continue in norther Mexico today, with up to a foot (300 mm) additional rain possible. (NOAA WPC)

Tides and winds will continue to slowly subside today on the Texas coast. Waves will probably stay up into tomorrow as broad east or east-southeast flow across the length of the Gulf helps to aid in that.

Rain totals have generally been manageable in Texas, with some flash flooding in spots. Almost seven and a half inches of rain fell between Corpus Christi and Refugio just near Copano Bay.

Multi-sensor rain total estimates show a widespread 2 to 6 inches on the Texas Coastal Bend, with the highest amounts on either side of Corpus Christi, particularly over Copano and Aransas Bays. (NOAA NSSL)

Most parts of South Texas received about 1 to 4 inches of rain from Alberto. In reality, it would have been nice to see more rain in this region, as reservoirs remain in bad shape due to long-term drought. Some additional rain will be possible over the next 24 hours or so before a break and then only a glancing blow from the next system. Perhaps we can eek out another inch or two in spots, which would help reservoirs a bit further.

Another inch or two of rain is possible in South Texas over the next week or so, but the bulk of the rain is likely to occur in Mexico with the next system. (Pivotal Weather)

Speaking of…

Alberto’s tagalong

We continue to watch the chances of an Alberto II type system move into the Bay of Campeche this weekend. The National Hurricane Center has given it an odds boost today, up to a 50 percent chance of development now. If sports betting were a thing in weather, you’d probably be placing money on a same month parlay in the Bay of Campeche. This system will probably emerge out of Central America tomorrow or Saturday and quickly track on Alberto’s heels into Mexico.

The forecast map early Sunday morning shows the system already approaching Mexico, while much drier air than was in place for Alberto sits over much of Texas and the northern Gulf. (Tropical Tidbits)

This system, while sitting with a 50 percent chance of development may have some more hurdles to overcome than Alberto did. The key one may be drier air than was in place this week with Alberto. By early Sunday morning, model guidance has this system moving toward or into Mexico, but it has a large area of dry air to the north, something that was not in place this week. High pressure in the upper atmosphere will sink south this weekend from the Mid-Atlantic into the Plains and Mid-South, which will put the squeeze on this disturbance and limit intensity and how far north it can come. For Texas, this system may be a non-issue, aside from some (welcome) rain as noted earlier. For Mexico, this will have the potential to again produce heavy rain and flooding concerns in the mountains. We’ll continue to watch.

Invest 92L off Florida

Our last stop today takes us off Florida, where Invest 92L has formed from the disturbance tracking westward toward the Bahamas. Odds of development are up to 40 percent with this one, and it will quickly come ashore in Florida or Georgia tomorrow. Could it become a tropical depression? It’s certainly possible. Whether or not it does, we’ll see.

A swirl off the coast of Florida indicates Invest 92L, which has about a 40 percent chance of becoming a depression over the next 24 hours or so. (College of DuPage)

Invest 92L is in a bit of a tough environment. While the exposed center is a neat looking feature on satellite, it indicates generally hostile surroundings for development. Still, it’s got a chance to put something together before landfall tomorrow. A little bit of extra rain or a breeze will be possible north of about Cape Canaveral from this one, into coastal Georgia. But land impacts should not go much farther than that. Anyone vacationing in Florida or Georgia should be mindful of very high rip current risks the next couple days though.

That’s all for today. I’m taking a few days off, but Eric will be around to jump in as needed through the weekend!

Tropical Storm Alberto flinging heavy rain and storm surge at the Texas coast

Headlines

  • Tropical Storm Alberto will head for a landfall in Mexico tonight, but its broad circulation is delivering rain, gusty winds, and tidal flooding impacts up and down the entire Texas coast.
  • Behind Alberto, the next Gulf disturbance looks to try to track a little to the south and struggle to develop, but it may deliver a flooding risk to Mexico.
  • The system nearing the Bahamas continues to look relatively unimpressive and should not have a meaningful impact on Florida at this time.

Alberto arrives

The first named storm of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season is officially with us now, as Tropical Storm Alberto was declared this morning. Alberto is as lopsided a storm as you’ll ever come across. Winds of tropical storm force extend out 415 miles north of the center and maybe 25 miles south.

Tropical Storm Alberto will quickly scoot ashore in Mexico tonight. (NOAA NHC)

The National Hurricane Center says that Alberto has 40 mph maximum sustained winds. We’ve seen frequent gusts all the way up into the Galveston area of 40 to 45 mph or even a bit stronger at times, which is about on brand for a storm of this nature. Persistent easterly flow across the Gulf and the large swath of wind accompanying Alberto has made its storm surge perform in an outsized manner for a typical low-end tropical storm. For instance, San Luis Pass, just southwest of Galveston is experiencing a surge level around 4 feet at the moment.

Click to enlarge and see tide levels at San Luis Pass, which is on the cusp of “major” tidal flooding. (NOAA)

For some places, the tide levels will meet or even come close to exceed the levels met during Hurricane Nicholas in 2021. Either way, this is the highest water in a few years on the Upper Texas Coast. You can view a wide range of tide gauges on this special NOAA site for Tropical Storm Alberto.

Meanwhile, rainfall continues to add up. It was slow to start last night and this morning, but it has kicked into gear today. We’ve seen squalls with strong winds, possible tornadoes, and rain rates currently approaching 2 inches in an hour with storms passing through Rockport, Fulton, and Sinton north of Corpus Christi. Storm totals so far are as high as nearly 5 inches just east of Rockport.

12 hour rainfall is on the order of 1 to 4 inches on average from just north of Corpus Christi across to Matagorda Island south of Port O’Connor. (NOAA NSSL)

Rain, squalls, and thunderstorms will continue to push ashore this afternoon and evening along the Texas coast, with a few spots seeing several more inches of rain perhaps, especially from near Surfside Beach southwest of Galveston into South Texas.

Showers, squalls, and thunderstorms will continue to push inland from Alberto south of Houston into South Texas through the afternoon and evening. (College of DuPage)

This rain is deceptively heavy, as evidenced by some torrential downpours in Houston this afternoon leading to localized street flooding. And combined with high tides, watch for flooding along the bays of Texas, as well as the Gulf waterfront. Even parts of southwest Louisiana, as expected, are dealing with tidal flooding. The worst of tidal flooding should be occurring now, or shortly, with a gradual decline in tides tonight and tomorrow as the winds slowly ease up.

Again, also be mindful of waterspouts or quick tornadoes along the coast, particularly from Matagorda Bay into far south Texas.

Total additional rainfall will be on the order of 4 to 8 inches in South Texas, including the metros in the Valley between Laredo and Brownsville. Flash flooding remains possible there. Higher amounts will likely occur in northern Mexico, with upward of 16 inches of rain in the mountains and a risk for mudslides and flooding.

An additional 4 to 8 inches of rain is possible in South Texas, including the Valley, with amounts as high as 16 inches possible in the mountains of northern Mexico. (NOAA NHC)

Alberto should release its grip on Texas and Mexico weather after tomorrow.

What’s next for the western Gulf?

Once Alberto gets out of the way, these areas will get about 2 days of quiet weather before the next iteration of the Central American Gyre kicks into gear.

You can see on the GFS model that once Alberto enters Mexico, a new system will try to form off the Yucatan and track into Mexico near or just south of where Alberto traveled. (Tropical Tidbits)

The good news is that the National Hurricane Center is maintaining low odds of development with this next system. The other good news is that modeling is tracking this thing farther south than Alberto, so hopefully it avoids repeating the exact same outcome over South Texas and northern Mexico that would lead to a higher likelihood of flooding the second time around. It also looks less impressive than Alberto did on model guidance to this point, so I think we’re setting up for a lower-end system, maybe a depression moving into central Mexico on Sunday or Monday.

Rainfall forecast between Saturday and Tuesday for South Texas and northern Mexico from the ECMWF model shows about 1 to 3 inches possible. Higher amounts would be possible in portions of Mexico. (Weather Bell)

For now, look for something like 1 to 3 inches on average south of Corpus Christi into Mexico. Models indicate that especially in the Sierra Madre Oriental just inland from the coast of Mexico could see upwards of 5 to 12 inches (125 to 300 mm) of rainfall. So flooding will be something to watch in Mexico, with or without a defined tropical system.

Off the Atlantic coast

The NHC continues to advertise about a 20 percent possibility of development from the disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean that will work toward Florida in the coming days.

A 20 percent possibility of development is still all that can be garnered from another tropical disturbance in the Atlantic heading toward Florida. (NOAA NHC)

This does not seem likely to develop, and even if it does, it will be doing so in an environment that’s less than ideal for strengthening. So there should be a pretty firm cap on how strong this can get. Either way, rain chances may pick up a little in Florida or the Southeast next week, but that should be about all.

Elsewhere, things look quiet for now. There were some operational model hints that perhaps this Atlantic system could get pulled into the Gulf and try to slowly organize, but those are low impact, outlier scenarios right now and we won’t be taking them seriously at this point.