The Eyewall

One-sentence summary

Post-tropical cyclone Lee is on its way across the Gulf of St. Lawrence and should be completely out of the picture by tomorrow morning, tracking well south of Greenland.

Post-tropical Lee: 45 mph, moving NE 22 mph

We first started talking about Lee as it was about to become Invest 95L back in the closing days of August while Idalia was readying to impact Florida. When we say hurricane season is a marathon, not a sprint, this is what we mean. Now, mercifully after nearly 3 weeks of tracking, Lee is implementing its exit strategy across the Gulf of St. Lawrence and eventually out to sea.

Lee’s center is off the coast of PEI and moving toward the Great Northern Peninsula in Newfoundland. Lingering tropical storm conditions will continue over PEI, portions of Nova Scotia, and Iles-de-la-Madeleine. Gusty winds are expected in Newfoundland, but impacts should be relatively minor. Rough surf will continue across Atlantic Canada, but any risk of damaging tidal flooding has diminished.

Rain totals were a bit spread out, but I found over 5 inches near Eastport, ME, almost 5 inches (125mm) near Fredericton in New Brunswick, and there were reports of around 100mm in Gaspe in Quebec and Grand Manan just east of Maine.

Nova Scotia power reports about 75,000 customers without power as of 11 AM (ADT), there are about 12,000 without power in New Brunswick, and about 40,000 in Maine.

That about closes the book on Lee.

Elsewhere

We’ll go into more detail on this tomorrow or Tuesday, but the rest of the Atlantic is busy but of no concern. For now. Nigel and Margot will not impact land, though Margot could brush the Azores as a remnant depression. The next wave, which the NHC gives a 40 percent chance of development over the next week is worth watching, particularly in the Caribbean, as there are questions as to exactly what the steering pattern in the Atlantic is going to look like when it gets there.

I would say the odds still favor a track north of the islands, but confidence in this is far less than it was for Lee, Margot, and Nigel.

Otherwise, there is at least reason to watch near Florida this week, as an upper low may develop in the neighborhood. While that seems unlikely to lead to a surface low developing, you never can be certain. Regardless, it means increasing rain chances for Florida and perhaps the Bahamas and Southeast. We’ll see how things evolve. More tomorrow.

One-sentence summary

Lee is on track to deliver mostly expected impacts to Atlantic Canada and Maine today, with heavy rain ongoing in Maine, a 2 foot surge so far in Canada, and wind gusts as high as hurricane-force so far in portions of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

Hurricane Lee (now-post-tropical): 80 mph, moving N 25 mph

Lee was determined to be post-tropical, which means it’s now essentially a gigantic nor’easter instead of a tropically-derived hurricane. It means absolutely nothing other than a classification change. Impacts are identical to forecast.

Lee is flinging very heavy rain onshore in Maine right now, with a band of torrential rain between Fredericton, NB and Acadia National Park.

Meanwhile, wind gusts have been ticking up around the region, with Grand Manan as high as 123 km/hr (77 mph), Halifax as high as 117 km/hr (73 mph), Mt. Washington, NH to 74 mph, St. John, NB to 85 km/hr (53 mph), Nantucket to 55 mph, and Eastport, ME to 62 mph.

The high tide cycle ongoing right now, as well as the next one this evening will be the highest for these areas. Yarmouth, NS is seeing about a 0.6m (2 ft) surge, Halifax 0.7m, and St. John about 0.5m. These are generally in line with expectations, maybe a smidge under. Surge of up to 1.5m (5 ft) is possible in Nova Scotia. With Lee’s center still technically south of Nova Scotia, the highest surge is yet to come. In addition, some potent waves will be coming ashore in Nova Scotia as well, with a buoy near Lee’s center at 8 AM AST reporting 30 foot waves.

So I think the takeaway here right now: Worst is over for southern New England, and it was handled pretty well as expected. Maine, particularly Downeast are in the height of the storm now, and it will wind down this afternoon. Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and PEI will be in the height of the storm shortly if not already, and it will wind down tonight.

Elsewhere

Tropical Storm Margot may turn toward the Azores next week, while weakening and becoming a post-tropical cyclone.

Tropical Depression 15 should become Nigel today, if not by the next advisory. It is expected to become a hurricane out at sea, while re-curving east of Bermuda.

Another potential Cabo Verde system may try to slowly develop later next week, but that is not a guarantee. The Gulf looks quiet, as does the Caribbean. Otherwise, things look generally quiet elsewhere too. We’ll let you know if that changes.

One-sentence summary

Hurricane Lee is en route to Atlantic Canada, a gigantic system, size-wise, and it will bring high-end tropical storm or hurricane impacts and surge to Atlantic Canada and Maine tomorrow.

Hurricane Lee: 85 mph, moving N 16 mph

What’s changed since Thursday evening?

Lee is beginning the process of transitioning to an extratropical system (more like a nor’easter than a hurricane), though the impacts will be the same regardless of designation.

Lee’s forecast impacts

Let’s move south to north today.

First, Bermuda should see improving conditions through the day today as Lee pulls away. Given Lee’s size, it would be likely to assume a breeze will continue out of the southwest, probably at tropical storm force at times, diminishing later and returning to calmer conditions overnight.

For Massachusetts, winds will pick up out of the north-northeast through the day, reaching near tropical storm force this evening with gusts over 50 mph possible on the coast. Wind should peak around daybreak Saturday and then drop off through the day out of the northwest. Look for periods of rain, as well tonight and early Saturday, perhaps adding up to an inch or so on the Cape and Nantucket, less in Boston and Martha’s Vineyard.

Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet will be possible for Nantucket, the Cape and up the Mass coast. Coastal flooding should be qualified mostly as “minor” in nature from this one.

In New Hampshire and southern Maine, winds should pick up this evening and peak Saturday morning through midday. Look for gusts of 45 to 55 mph or so on the coast, lower inland. Rain totals should be about an inch or so. Conditions will probably be a bit worse in southeast Massachusetts than in this area, due to the coastal geography. Surge will again be about 1 to 3 feet in this area, leading to minor coastal flooding.

In the White Mountains, the Maine lakes, Highlands, Kennebec Valley, and up through Katahdin, you can expect elevation dependent outcomes. Low elevations should see mostly 35 to 45 mph wind gusts with periods of rain. Higher peaks will probably see 60 to 80 mph gusts, with Mt. Washington, NH probably checking in around 100 to 125 mph.

Rain totals will be in the 1 to 3 inch range, with lower-end amounts in New Hampshire and higher-end amounts in Maine.

For the Midcoast and Downeast Maine, you’ll likely see tropical storm conditions move in on Saturday morning and linger into Saturday night. Conditions should improve Sunday afternoon. The closer you get to Lubec and Eastport, the worse the conditions should be. Expect sustained winds near tropical storm force, around 40 mph or so, with gusts of 50 to 60 mph. Periods of heavy rain will lead to 2 or 3 inches in most places, with higher amounts as you get between Acadia and Eastport.

Surge of 1 to 3 feet (~1m) along the coast should lead to mostly minor flooding in Maine.

Moving into Canada, I don’t necessarily want to repeat everything I wrote yesterday, but I will repeat some because we took a deeper dive into Canadian impacts, and not a whole lot has changed since yesterday.

For coastal New Brunswick along the Bay of Fundy and western Nova Scotia along the Bay of Fundy, expect heavy rainfall, tropical storm conditions, and some very rough surf. I remain concerned about the Bay of Fundy and surge. There are some signs that the center may come in close to Saint John, NB which could allow a good bit of water to enter the bay. We will continue to watch this closely.

Digby into the Annapolis Valley in Nova Scotia saw a good bit of rain yesterday, and additional rain may front run things today. With another 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) or more, flash flooding may become an issue in parts of Nova Scotia.

Significant surge impacts with big waves will be likely in Nova Scotia along the Atlantic coast. Additionally, borderline hurricane conditions will be possible here. Probably the worst land impacts from Lee will happen on the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia.

Eastern Nova Scotia will probably see nor’easter type conditions with tropical storm force gusts possible.

Prince Edward Island could see some rough surf inbound off the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Meanwhile, some of that rough surf could impact Nova Scotia and New Brunswick off the Northumberland Strait. But coastal impacts overall will be minor to moderate, with periods of rain and gusty winds.

Heavy rain will fall across central and northern New Brunswick, as well as the Gaspe Region of Quebec. Totals of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75mm) are likely here.

Overall, for most folks, Lee will be an inconvenience and a nuisance storm. People along the Downeast Maine coast, Bay of Fundy, southwestern half of Nova Scotia, and much of New Brunswick should be taking Lee seriously and preparing for perhaps some more significant impacts. Fingers crossed for a positive outcome.

Elsewhere: Margot and Future Nigel

Margot remains a non-issue for us. Invest 97L is closer to developing this morning. The next name on the list is Nigel. This system is expected to avoid most land. However, it may be an item to watch for Bermuda eventually.

There may be yet another Cabo Verde system next week, which would likely follow Nigel out to sea. The Gulf remains quiet.