As we zero in on Monday’s solar eclipse, we have one clear area emerging as probably the best for viewing. And one area remains the most pessimistic. The forecast remains fairly fluid elsewhere. We explain and tidy up the snow forecasts today into Friday below.
Headlines
Winter weather will continue impacting the western Great Lakes today, while snow gets going in New England later, lingering into tomorrow.
Watching some severe weather and fire weather potential this weekend.
Eclipse weather continues to look most favorable the farther north you go, with a solid bullseye between Plattsburgh, NY and Fredericton, NB.
Eclipse weather still looking best in the Northeast
Here’s our daily eclipse forecast check in. The biggest change today is that conditions look a little better for northern Arkansas, Missouri, and southern Illinois. Cloud cover probabilities have continued to drop some there.
Cloud cover forecasts have improved in Missouri and southern Illinois, where average cloud cover is forecast to be around 20 to 30 percent. (Tomer Burg)
Working from north to south: It still looks great in Canada, Maine, and back through Watertown, NY. Conditions get sketchier for western New York into the Midwest before likely improving some across Illinois and Missouri.
For those of you in Texas, the news remains pessimistic. The highest odds of low cloud coverage (the best conditions) are probably located near Dallas or Texarkana. As you back toward Austin, San Antonio, and the Rio Grande Valley, the cloud coverage is in the 60 to 80 percent range per forecast modeling right now.
Houlton, ME, Sherbrooke, Quebec, and Burlington, VT/Plattsburgh, NY look like the safest options today. This continues to evolve, so look for more updates tomorrow and Friday.
Quick weather hits
Thankfully, the higher-end portion of the tornado risk yesterday does not appear to have materialized. Kudos to the folks at the SPC for indicating in their discussion yesterday that it was rather conditional. If you read their discussion in the morning, you understood why they did what they did and why the forecast would (or would not) reach its potential. This is why we attempt to focus on facts not fear-mongering here. Is it sexy? No, but it works.
While there were a lot of storm reports yesterday, the higher end potential of the severe weather does not seem to have been realized, a risk clearly explained by the SPC in their discussion yesterday. (NOAA SPC)
Heavy snow will continue in the U.P. of Michigan, where Blizzard Warnings are in effect for Marquette. Snow totals of 1 to 2 feet for the higher terrain just south of Lake Superior are expected.
Blizzard warnings are in effect for portions of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, as heavy snow and wind hammer them through the evening. (NWS Marquette)
Snow continues to be on the way for Canada and New England. That develops this afternoon, and the snow total forecast has even increased a hair in spots in New England.
Snow totals in excess of 15 inches are likely in portions of Maine and New Hampshire, as well as in the Green Mountains in Vermont & northern Adirondacks in New York. (Pivotal Weather)
Look for that continue into Thursday before winding down. For southeastern Canada, expect a wide swath of 10 to 20 cm of snow from Sherbrooke and southern Quebec into the Ottawa River Valley back toward Sudbury, Ontario. Higher amounts will be possible there, in the Cape Breton Highlands, New Brunswick, the Gaspe Peninsula of Quebec and the north shore of the St. Lawrence, perhaps in excess of 25 cm.
Snow totals of 10 to 20 cm, with amounts in excess of 25 cm in spots are likely from portions of Ontario through southern Quebec and into New Brunswick, the Gaspe Peninsula, and Cape Breton Highlands. (Pivotal Weather)
In addition to heavy, wet snow, gusty winds will be likely, capable of producing sporadic power outages in this region. A major snowstorm for April.
Looking ahead, the next weather items to watch will be severe weather risk in the southern Plains on Saturday, along with some critical fire weather conditions in the Texas Panhandle and portions of New Mexico. More on that tomorrow or Friday.
Happy Tuesday. Today we look at the ongoing significant severe weather risk, an update on the snowstorm for New England (and Canada and parts of the Great Lakes), and a quick update on the eclipse outlook.
Headlines
A moderate risk (level 4 of 5) for severe weather is posted for portions of Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky today, with significant tornadoes possible if the atmosphere can realize its full potential.
A risk of severe weather, including significant tornadoes extends south of that area today into northern Mississippi and Alabama.
A major snowstorm will impact portions of the Great Lakes and New England with 1 to 2 feet of snow in spots.
Solar eclipse outlook continues to look rather pessimistic in Texas, questionable north of there to the Midwest, and optimistic for New York, New England, and Canada.
Moderate severe weather risk for the Ohio Valley, but don’t sleep on the South
Yesterday saw a moderate risk issued for parts of Oklahoma. There were some social media posts about extreme tornado risk that seemed a bit excessive. Hail was the primary concern with yesterday’s severe weather, and in the end there were about 20 significant hail reports, with over 100 severe reports to go with it versus about 3 tornado reports. Interestingly, a lot of the bigger hail reports ended up south of the most serious concern area. Texas checked in with the majority of the significant hail, including a 3 inch report just south of Denton.
Hail reports were clustered northwest of DFW, near Denton, TX and also across Missouri to the St. Louis area. Tornado reports occurred north of Tulsa. (NOAA SPC)
Today, the threat of severe weather marches eastward toward the Midwest and Ohio Valley. A moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has already been hoisted for portions of Ohio.
A moderate risk (level 4/5) for severe weather includes Dayton, Columbus, Cincinnati, and Louisville, with an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) surrounding it and extending south into northern Alabama and Mississippi. (NOAA SPC)
This is surrounded by a pretty healthy area of enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) that includes Nashville, Birmingham, Knoxville, and Charleston, WV.
The headline risk today is tornadoes, as the environment will be capable of producing supercell storms that could include developing long-track tornadoes — IF there is enough instability available. The current moderate risk is meant to cover that. The question is whether or not the warm front can push far enough north to destabilize that area. This is what we call a conditional risk. In other words, if instability and the ripe, really warm and humid air mass doesn’t press far enough north, you end up with probably a minimal outcome. However, if that beefier instability realizes farther north, the environment ends up being a powder keg for severe weather. Hope for the former, prepare for the latter.
To the south, I noted the enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk extending into Mississippi and Alabama. Despite the Ohio Valley being the main area to watch right now, don’t sleep on the South. In their morning discussion, the SPC highlights the potential for a risk that may need to be upgraded in some areas later today.
The “hatched” area from Ohio through northern Alabama and Mississippi indicates the potential for significant tornadoes today. While much of the focus is on Ohio and Kentucky, the risk is possible fairly far south of there, and this is highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center. (NOAA SPC)
In addition to tornadoes, the threat for damaging wind and large hail continues today as well. Heavy rain and localized flash flooding are also possible.
Impressive April snowstorm for portions of the Lakes, eastern Canada, and New England
A major winter storm for spring is still in line to impact much of New England beginning later tomorrow and into Thursday. It starts tonight in the Midwest, with major to locally extreme impacts possible across northern Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan.
Snow totals in excess of 2 feet are possible south and west of Marquette, with locally “extreme” winter weather impacts, even for this area. (NWS Marquette)
Lake enhancement off Lake Superior really helps here, cranking out north of 2 feet in spots in the terrain southwest of Marquette.
As the storm moves to New England, snow totals continue to look look fairly impressive, particularly given the calendar.
Forecast snow totals through Thursday evening (not including what falls Friday) could be as high as 18 to 24 inches in parts of the Adirondacks and White Mountains, with a broad swath of 8-12″+ possible surrounding that. (NWS)
Forecasts show anywhere from 8 to 12 inches over a wide area, with higher amounts likely at higher elevations. Again, this will be a different animal than the previous storm last week that brought snow to similar areas. Additionally, the snow “load” will be significant given the time of year. This will be a heavy, wet snow and when combined with gusty winds, trees and power lines do have a chance to fall in spots.
Snow will also expand into Canada with some portions of southern Quebec (Sherbrooke in particular) and New Brunswick taking the brunt of it. Snow will also impact portions of Canada west of there, with perhaps 10 to 20 cm or more of it for Ottawa and much of the Ottawa Valley. Snow should also expand up through the Gaspe Peninsula in Quebec. Snow forecasts are a little more challenging south of there, but some accumulation is possible for Prince Edward Island and significant accumulation perhaps in the Cape Breton Highlands. The rest of Nova Scotia should see snow changing to rain.
The European model snowfall forecast for Canada shows the highest totals in the Ottawa Valley, near Sherbrooke, the Gaspe Peninsula, portions of New Brunswick, and Cape Breton Island. (Pivotal Weather)
The snow should taper or become more showery on Friday, but there may be some lingering flakes in spots even into Saturday! Expect locally significant travel issues in these areas.
Eclipse update: Northeast and Canada looking best
Things have not changed much today, which is unfortunate news for those of us in Texas.
The National Blend of Models continues to forecast a high probability of clouds in Texas and also parts of the Midwest on Monday. There may be a minimum somewhere in between, as well as perhaps in parts of the Rio Grande Valley. (Tomer Burg)
There may be a gap in the clouds ahead of the storm over Texas, so portions of Missouri, southern Illinois, or Arkansas may, may have better luck. Additional clouds may infiltrate the Midwest, but that’s lower confidence than Texas right now. The best picks as of today? Watertown, NY, Burlington, VT, Houlton, ME, and portions of Quebec and New Brunswick. Will this change? Probably, but it’s getting a little late in the game for Texas I fear. That said, one scenario for Texas involves timing more than anything. If the storm can slow up 3-6 hours and we end up with just some thin high clouds over Texas, that wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. So, there are ways. It’s just getting a little harder to view it optimistically. More tomorrow.
See below for an update on Monday’s severe weather risk.
We’re coming to you on a Sunday evening to table set the week ahead. While we continue to check on eclipse forecast data, the bigger story in the meantime will be a major storm this week that brings a later season bout of winter to New England again. We explain what’s up there, as well as the latest forecast info on April 8th’s solar eclipse.
Headlines
Severe weather possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Continent and Ohio Valley tomorrow and Tuesday.
A late season winter storm may bring major winter storm impacts to portions of New England and New Brunswick later Wednesday into Thursday.
Eclipse forecast cloud cover continues to look most pessimistic south and most optimistic north.
About that early spring… (UPDATED)
So, we’ve discussed how warm this winter was and how the northern tier really lacked a truly “good” winter. Over the last couple weeks, we’ve been making up some ground in parts of the North. And there is one more punch to be had in the Northeast this week.
The same storm system that will bring pockets of severe weather to the Mid-Continent and Ohio River Valley this week will move into the Northeast by later Wednesday and Thursday.
Click to enlarge the severe weather outlooks (from Sunday) for Monday and Tuesday, with an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) in place for the Mid-Continent and Ohio Valley. (NOAA SPC)
(UPDATE 12:05 CT Monday): The severe weather risk has increased today for portions of the Plains and Mid-Continent.
The severe weather risk for much of eastern Oklahoma has been upgraded to Moderate (level 4 of 5) for the potential of tornadoes and especially large hail. (NOAA SPC)
Oklahoma has been upgraded to a moderate risk (level 4 of 5) particularly due to the risk of large hail. But also because of strong winds and tornado risk as well. The greatest risk is east of I-35 late this afternoon and tonight. The risk shifts east after midnight. Not to be outdone, the enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has also been expanded to include more of North Texas (including the DFW Metro) and more of southern Indiana, beyond where it had been drawn yesterday. Tuesday’s severe risk is mostly in place where it had been yesterday, though expanded some into Tennessee.
While the tornado risk generates the most buzz, that risk is a little more challenging to pinpoint today. The hail risk is very significant. Baseball or softball size hail is possible, if not likely in some storms today across eastern Oklahoma.
Previous outlook: The severe weather risk will bring damaging wind potential and large hail, as well as isolated tornadoes to areas from eastern Oklahoma across Missouri, including St. Louis tomorrow, and into the Ohio Valley Tuesday. Both Chicago teams have their home openers on Monday, so we’ll see if they get the games in. Tuesday could be a bit of a mess as well farther east for those of you in the fantasy baseball realm.
Anyway, as this storm marches east, it will deposit about 1 to 3 inches of rain across the Midwest and into northern Appalachia. Low pressure blows up over the Great Lakes, and as it slides east, it is going to encounter a setup in New England that is absolutely ripe for a springtime winter storm mess. Cold air funneling south initially out of Quebec and then out of the northwest as the storm moves offshore will allow for a rain, sleet, snow slopfest across the region.
The initial setup Tuesday evening shows warm moist air being thrust north along the Eastern Seaboard running into colder air in New England being supplied from Canada. This should produce a rather significant winter storm.
This storm could differ from the last significant winter storm with the axis of heavier snow a little farther south. I also wouldn’t be surprised if this is a more elevation-driven play in terms of totals (where the higher elevations get the greatest snow), unlike the previous storm. The current thinking is that the greatest odds of heavy snow are most likely from southern New Hampshire and Vermont into western Maine. Snow and/or sleet will be possible down into parts of northern Massachusetts as well, north of the Worcester area. This could be some very heavy, wet snow for parts of southern New Hampshire and southwest Maine in particular, from Keene and Concord to Lewiston.
Major winter storm impacts are becoming a good possibility for parts of southwest Maine, New Hampshire, and southern Vermont and extreme northern Massachusetts Wednesday into Thursday. (NWS Gray/Portland, ME)
It’s still a bit too early to unleash snow maps and the like, but suffice to say, significant amounts are possible in these areas for April. Snow will expand north and east across Maine and into New Brunswick, with heavy amounts possible in those areas as well.
South of the wintry weather, look for the potential for heavy rain and flooding in spots. Again.
Eclipse forecast update: Good north, less encouraging south
Let’s start first with an update on afternoon rainfall probabilities for next Monday the 8th.
A composite of ensemble models with the eclipse path overlaid, showing the cumulative probability of rainfall next Monday afternoon based on the last 2-3 runs. There’s clearly a signal for high rain probabilities in Texas up through Arkansas and Missouri. (Tomer Burg)
For those of us like me in Texas, this is not at all what we were hoping to see. We’re still a week out, so a lot can change, and keep in mind that probability of rain does not necessarily mean it will be overcast at the time of totality. But, this is not encouraging.
The cloud cover forecast ensemble mean from the National Blend of Models (NBM) shows fairly high probability of clouds in Texas up through the Mississippi Valley. As you go north of there, the odds start to drop off.
The NBM forecast of average cloud cover on the ensembles suggests the greatest odds of clouds is from Texas into Arkansas, with a slight drop into the Midwest and a more significant drop in the Northeast and Canada. (Tomer Burg)
Again, a lot can change, and timing is literally everything with respect to a solar eclipse. A slight shift in timing of a storm system or track will lead to considerable impact changes on the ground. But, sitting here today, I feel least optimistic about Texas and most optimistic about Canada and the Great Lakes. If I’m picking a place right now, it’s probably like Watertown, NY or something. But this is a moving target, so watch for changes through the week, including how we’d characterize the cloud cover in the southern part of the path. Scattered clouds are doable, whereas overcast is not. We’ll watch for that later this week. We’ll have a quick update on this for you Tuesday and a more thorough update Thursday and Friday into the weekend.
Today we’ll touch on some rain in the West, an update on the eclipse cloud cover outlook, and have some comments on early hurricane season outlooks.
Headlines
Moderate SoCal flash flooding risk with one of the wet season’s final big storms.
Still signals for a storm system “in the neighborhood” of the path of totality for April 8th’s eclipse, but confidence is not really any higher.
AccuWeather released their hurricane season outlook on Wednesday, calling for 20 to 25 named storms and 8 to 12 hurricanes, a very active season.
It does rain in Southern California
Let’s begin out West where a gnarly late season series of storms is helping to “top off” California’s snowpack and deliver one more round of rain to Southern California. One storm is exiting the Sierra today. The next one actually tracks southeast along and off the California coast, where it will bring a round of heavy rain and chance of thunderstorms to SoCal.
The 50th percentile snowfall forecast (consider this a rough guide for an average model forecast) from the Weather Prediction Center shows about 1 to 2 feet of snow in the Sierra, with at least a little risk for more through Sunday morning. (NOAA WPC)
As far as rain goes, it looks like the LA Basin will do well in this one with an inch or two of rain for most. Heavier totals (and some snow, with snow levels perhaps as low as 4,500 feet at times!) will be possible in the LA County and Ventura County mountains, as well as out toward Santa Barbara. San Diego will also do well in this one with 1 to 2 inches of liquid expected. Isolated higher amounts are possible, as is flash flooding in some of these areas.
Rain totals through the weekend will be impressive for early April in SoCal, with 2 inches or more possible in spots between the Central Coast and San Diego.
The storm hits Saturday and exits later Sunday, setting up perhaps some quieter weather next week. In addition to rain, there will be some thunderstorms with perhaps the usual California rogue, localized tornado possible.
This storm will emerge in the Plains next week and bring the potential of locally heavy rain and even some more snow to parts of the Central and Eastern U.S., including snow or ice potential in New England next Wednesday or Thursday.
Do we know anything further about the weather for April 8th’s eclipse?
Do we have any clarity on the forecast for the solar eclipse today? Not really. Back on Monday we noted that model ensembles were suggesting a storm exiting the Rockies and some noteworthy precipitation probabilities on the Gulf Coast and in the Midwest. Everything remains pretty status quo today versus Monday.
Monday, April 8th’s midday probabilities of rain are highest still along the Gulf Coast and up into the Mississippi Valley. The eclipse totality path, in addition to other percentages of coverage are overlaid. (Tomer Burg)
Keep in mind that higher rainfall probabilities do *not* necessarily mean it will be overcast. As is often the case, we could have scattered or broken clouds which could still allow for eclipse viewing, even if rain chances are relatively high.
If we could say something of note that’s changed, I might point to the expected system exiting the Rockies. Overall, 500 mb heights are a little less low, which indicates that perhaps the storm system emerging will be a bit weaker? Too soon to say much in that department. But suffice to say that things have not trended much worse since Monday, so that’s good news at least.
The weather pattern 20,000 feet up (500 mb level) shows the trough closer to the Four Corners than Plains, which may help serve up a weaker system in the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe around the eclipse? (StormVista)
Also, shout out to Tomer Burg and StormVista for enabling the eclipse path overlay on their sites. Helpful!
I know some people think this exercise is silly; Matt, you’re devoting a whole section of your post to say “we don’t know.” And you’re correct, we are doing that. But the interest in this forecast is astronomical (pun intended). We are here to give the people what they want!
Anyway, let’s check back in on this on Saturday or Monday.
Here come the big hurricane season outlooks
According to the Barcelona Supercomputing Center’s aggregator of seasonal hurricane forecasts, we have had two as of yesterday: Weather2020 predicts 14 to 19 storms and 8 to 10 hurricanes. StormGeo predicts 21 named storms and 11 hurricanes. Yesterday, AccuWeather published their forecast calling for an “explosive” (their words) hurricane season in the Atlantic. They project 20 to 25 named storms and 8 to 12 hurricanes. They also go on to note that their analog years suggest the Texas coast, Florida, and the Carolinas are at a higher risk than usual this year. Analog years can be fickle, and recall that it is difficult to predict exactly who will get hit before the season begins. Just last year, AccuWeather noted that the entire Florida coast and Southeast coast was at a higher risk than usual, with a lower risk in the Northeast and Texas. While Florida did see Hurricane Idalia and the Carolina coast Tropical Storm Ophelia, the Northeast flirted with Hurricane Lee, while Texas saw Tropical Storm Harold. My point is analogs can produce mixed results.
I don’t take issue with their forecast at all. I do take issue with using the word “explosive” to characterize it for a headline, but that’s a battle we’ll probably continue to lose.
Anyway, we warned you earlier in the month that as these forecasts are released, they will likely be big. AccuWeather is the first major forecaster to tee one up. The next one up should be Colorado State University, generally the gold standard of these sorts of things. Their first outlook will be released next Thursday. We will have a full recap of that next week. Continue to expect some bulled up forecasts.
