Melissa explodes into a powerful hurricane, and it is going to deliver catastrophic impacts to Jamaica

In brief: Melissa’s forecast has not changed much at all since yesterday unfortunately. The storm should slowly crawl south of Jamaica through tomorrow before turning north and hitting the middle of the island directly as a high-end major hurricane, possibly the strongest in Jamaica’s known history. Catastrophic impacts from surge, wind, and multiple days of torrential rain are likely. A slightly less intense (but likely still major hurricane) storm will hit eastern provinces of Cuba on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with severe impacts. Significant impacts are likely in the southeast Bahamas and perhaps Turks and Caicos Islands as a borderline major hurricane passes by on Wednesday. Bermuda should remain on alert for tropical storm or hurricane impacts by Friday.

Melissa surges to category 4 intensity

(NOAA/NHC)

It feels like it has become routine in recent years to witness storms going from disjointed to mammoth in just a day or two, and Melissa has done nothing to squelch that feeling. Just 24 hours ago, we had a modest storm spinning up, and today we are left with a storm closing in on becoming a monster as it traverses the warmest water in the Atlantic basin.

Note how little Melissa has moved in 24 hours and also how well defined it has become. (College of DuPage)

As noted last night, Melissa did move to the southwest a bit, which all but guarantees it will come into Jamaica as a high-end major hurricane tomorrow night and Tuesday morning. Melissa has sort of leveled off intensity-wise this morning, and we could see internal processes lead to some fluctuation in intensity today or tomorrow. Frankly, that’s just background noise more than anything, and the expectation is that we will probably have something close to a category 5 hitting Jamaica from the south Tuesday morning.

For details on storm surge, I recommend checking out Michael Lowry’s post this morning on that. He has a nice breakdown of what could end up happening.

Over the next 24 hours, Melissa will continue off to the west before it slams on the brakes and turns north and north-northeast, plowing right into Jamaica likely somewhere west of Kingston and east of Montego Bay. From there, it should continue off to the northeast and into Cuba. Landfall there looks to be between Las Tunas and Guantanamo. Melissa will likely be a bit less intense when it gets to Cuba, but it should still be a formidable, destructive major hurricane.

Melissa’s track spread widens beyond the Bahamas, with Bermuda firmly in the cone right now, albeit by a much less intense storm than it will be in Jamaica and Cuba. (Google Weather Lab)

Next up for Melissa will be the Bahamas. Model guidance gets a little fishier on timing here. Landfall in Cuba should occur roughly around midnight or just a little later Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. It will emerge through the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands during the day on Wednesday with deteriorating conditions probably around or just before sunrise Wednesday. As it moves through the Bahamas, it will probably be below major hurricane intensity, but it should still be a rather potent storm in that area. Melissa should pick up additional forward speed, exiting the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos quickly by Wednesday night. The track spread widens some beyond that, but Bermuda remains in the realm of possibility. Folks should keep monitoring the situation there, however although hurricane impacts are possible, the storm will be a much different and less intense system by then. Some of the predicted times here could fluctuate 12 to 18 hours in either direction as Melissa’s end game becomes clearer.

Melissa’s rainfall forecast from today into the upcoming week shows catastrophic amounts of rain in Jamaica, parts of eastern Cuba, and southwest Haiti. (NOAA/WPC)

The rainfall forecast remains just awful. Additional rain on top of what has fallen could be as much as 40 inches in eastern Jamaica (1,000 mm). Many areas will see 20 to 30 inches more, however. And most of this falls before the catastrophic wind and surge arrives. This is truly just a nightmarish type of worst-case scenario for Jamaica. Copious rain will make certain structures and infrastructure additionally vulnerable to already terrible hurricane conditions. In Haiti, rains will continue that could add up to another 15 to 20 inches in spots (375-500 mm) on the Tiburon Peninsula. As Melissa turns north, heavy rain will overspread eastern Cuba as well, perhaps adding up to 15 to 20 inches (375-500 mm) in Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, and Holguin. Rain of 6 to 10 inches is possible in the southeast Bahamas.

So, to summarize all this:

  • A historic, catastrophic storm is on tap for Jamaica with copious rain and some of the strongest winds experienced in modern times possible in many parts of the country. This will likely require a robust multi-national humanitarian response.
  • Continued rain may cause catastrophic impacts in southwest Haiti.
  • Severe impacts are likely in eastern provinces of Cuba, with a major hurricane (past peak) making landfall on Tuesday night or Wednesday, along with torrential rain in Guantanamo and Santiago de Cuba.
  • Significant impacts are likely in the southeast Bahamas and perhaps the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday as Melissa loses some intensity and pass through. It may still be a borderline major hurricane as it hits the islands.
  • Bermuda should be on watch for potential hurricane or tropical storm impacts by Thursday night or Friday.

Planning our next post Monday morning unless something changes significantly.

Melissa is rapidly intensifying southeast of Jamaica tonight

In brief: Melissa seems to be in the process of rapid intensification in the Caribbean tonight, likely becoming a major hurricane by morning. Melissa is expected to become a category 5 storm as it tracks slowly toward Jamaica, bringing catastrophic rain and wind impacts, in addition to storm surge. Landfall in Jamaica is expected Monday night or Tuesday morning, with Melissa near maximum intensity.

Melissa is rapidly intensifying

(NOAA/NHC)

A tropical storm this morning, Melissa is now a category 2 hurricane just southeast of Jamaica. It is clearly in the process of rapidly intensifying.

Melissa’s thunderstorms are wrapping into the center, and the storm is in the midst of rapidly intensifying toward a major hurricane. (Weathernerds.org)

All along, Melissa has had the scaffolding it needed to eventually wrap up into a monster storm. Dry air is not an issue. Wind shear was an issue, but it has since overcome that and it is no longer an issue at present. Reliable models are on board with an extended rapid intensification cycle lasting 36 to 48 hours. The National Hurricane Center explicitly forecasts Melissa to become a category 5 hurricane by tomorrow night or Monday. One key note conveyed by NHC senior hurricane specialist Philippe Papin on his personal social media this evening is that there is some chance that Melissa tracks a bit west-southwest tonight. If that happens, it provides a few extra hours from preparations in Jamaica, but it also increases the likelihood that Melissa will reach peak possible intensity in these circumstances.

(Philippe Papin on BlueSky)

We are witnessing what is really just a worst-case type scenario for Jamaica. I don’t want to say it’s THE worst-case scenario, as that’s a complex thing to define anywhere. But a slow-moving, rain-loaded high-end major hurricane potentially making a direct hit on an island nation is one of those things you dread ever seeing.

Almost all modeling tracks Melissa right into Jamaica in 48 hours or so. (Tropical Tidbits)

What’s just terrible about this is not just that it’s realistic that Jamaica could be hit directly by a category 5 hurricane, it’s that it comes after 48 hours of tropical storm or localized hurricane conditions and torrential rain. This combination of flooding and saturated ground multiplies the potential damage we could see by a fair bit and just translates into an awful experience for folks in Jamaica. Not to mention the storm surge that will accompany Melissa as it turns toward Jamaica Monday night. Torrential rain will also continue to impact Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula, the southwest Dominican Republic, and eventually eastern Cuba.

Potential for up to 40 inches of rain exists in eastern Jamaica. (NOAA/WPC)

We are looking at a devastating, catastrophic impact in the Caribbean. People will need help after this, and we will try to share some ways to help in the days ahead.

Painfully slow-moving Melissa on the verge of becoming a hurricane this morning

In brief: Melissa is on the cusp of hurricane intensity this morning as it continues to track west at a painfully slow rate of speed. Forecasts now favor a major storm turning north closer to Jamaica, which may lead to a direct hit on the island. Regardless, catastrophic rainfall will impact communities in southwest Dominican Republic, Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula, eastern Jamaica, and portions of southeast Cuba before Melissa exits into the Atlantic next week.

Melissa almost a hurricane

(NOAA/NHC)

Since yesterday, Melissa has continued to get its act together, and as of earlier this morning, the storm was very near hurricane intensity. It should get there sometime today.

Melissa has become much better organized and is beginning to feed off the exceptionally warm water residing under the storm. (Tropical Tidbits)

At times, an “eye” has tried to emerge as well, so Melissa has shrugged off most of what was ailing it earlier this week.

Melissa’s perilous track & strength

Because of the excruciatingly slow movement of Melissa, a couple changes have occurred today in the track forecast. First, most modeling now turns Melissa northward from due south of Jamaica. This means the odds of a direct hit on Jamaica by a major hurricane are now high, in addition to the several days of tropical storm conditions and torrential rain that will precede the worst of the storm. Even for a hurricane battle tested location, this will be a pushing limits of what is tolerable.

Virtually all Google Deep Mind ensemble members turn Melissa directly into Jamaica this upcoming week on its way out of the Caribbean. (Weathernerds.org)

Once past Jamaica, Melissa will likely make landfall in eastern Cuba, before tracking over either the southeast Bahamas or Turks and Caicos Islands. The islands south and east of about Exumas are probably at highest risk for severe impacts right now. From there, Melissa hauls out to sea, though folks in Bermuda should now be watching Melissa’s progress closely (though it will certainly be a less intense storm once that far north).

Over 80 percent of Google’s Deep Mind ensemble members bring Melissa to Cat 4 or 5 intensity, with some of the better performing overall hurricane models and consensus aides, firmly in the category 4 camp right now. Whether it is a 3, 4, or 5, the odds favor it being a major hurricane and perhaps a higher-end major at that as it barrels into Jamaica and Cuba. The storm should begin to weaken beyond Cuba due to land interaction and a more hostile overall environment. But even in the Bahamas, we could still be looking at a borderline major hurricane.

Powerful storm surge is likely in Jamaica and eastern Cuba as Melissa turns northward next week.

Catastrophic rainfall

Despite the intensity of the hurricane, the hallmark of this storm may well be how much rain falls, with totals of 30 inches or more possible in southwest Haiti and eastern Jamaica. Given how explosive the thunderstorms are east of the center, day after day of rain is likely in these areas.

Obscene amounts of rain are likely across Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula and in eastern Jamaica. (NOAA/WPC)

It is not hyperbole to say that this amount of rain will be catastrophic for these areas. Landslides, mudslides, and isolation for several days will all be likely in some communities. Those 30 inch (750mm) totals will be isolated in all likelihood and terrain driven. But the entire eastern half of Jamaica should see at least 10 inches of rain (250mm), which will cause widespread problems.

Don’t forget about southeast Cuba (easily could see 15 inches of rain (375mm) and southwest Dominican Republic which could see upwards of 20 inches (500mm). We are talking about a widespread flooding event across several different countries in the Caribbean.

Bottom line today

  • A major hurricane, quite possibly a high-end major hurricane will probably directly hit Jamaica by Monday night.
  • The storm will then make a direct hit on Cuba as a powerful hurricane and track through the southeast Bahamas as a borderline major hurricane.
  • Bermuda should be monitoring the future track forecast of Melissa.
  • Catastrophic rainfall will impact Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and southeast Cuba with upwards of 30 inches in a few spots. Mudslides, landslides, and complete isolation of some villages are all likely.
  • In many cases, severe flash flooding will commence 24 to 48 hours before the core of the storm hits in Jamaica and Cuba.
  • Along and near where Melissa tracks, significant storm surge is likely.

We continue to send our thoughts to these Caribbean communities that will be dealt another in a long history of bad storms.

Melissa’s forecast remains mostly unchanged and ominous for Haiti, Jamaica, and parts of Cuba

In brief: Tropical Storm Melissa’s forecast has undergone mostly cosmetic changes this morning. A damaging, severe hurricane with wide-ranging impacts in Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is likely. We continue to be focused on heavy rainfall and multiple days of hurricane impacts in very vulnerable locations. But the story is mostly unchanged today.

Melissa this morning

(NOAA/NHC)

Changes since yesterday have included Melissa’s center either shifting or reforming to the south and east. The storm itself remains fairly disorganized and lower-end intensity-wise.

Melissa remains a mess this morning. (Weathernerds.org)

Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph, but Melissa is expected to emerge in a more favorable area for intensification soon. We have about 24 hours more of these sloppy upper level conditions, with center drift or reformation possibly leading to an erratic, meandering track.

Where is Melissa headed?

After tomorrow, a general west drift will continue through Tuesday. From there, Melissa will finally have an escape path emerge, allowing it to turn north and northeast. Exactly where that occurs will determine where it tracks in relation to Jamaica and Cuba. It will be a major hurricane at that point, so wide ranging impacts from surge to torrential rain, high seas, and obviously wind will be a concern. The NHC track above represents a close mix of the historically well-performing consensus track forecast, as well as the strong performing Google Deep Mind model.

There is still a fair bit of uncertainty in the exact track of Melissa due to its present disorganization, but in general a track around Jamaica and into eastern Cuba will be likely. (Tropical Tidbits)

The track spread has narrowed since yesterday, though it remains broad and highly sensitive for potential landfall risks in Jamaica and Cuba, as well as downstream into the southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos. And with a center that seems vulnerable to reformation over the next 24 hours, this whole spread could shift a bit in either direction over the next 24 hours.

But the bottom line, this storm is going to produce significant, high-end impacts in Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti and parts of the southeast Bahamas and Turks & Caicos Islands.

How strong will Melissa get?

The NHC shows Melissa eventually becoming a high-end category 4 hurricane by Tuesday. Depending on exactly where the center tracks and how much the shear relaxes will determine how quickly Melissa can undergo transformation from ordinary to extraordinary.

The intensity spread remains wide, but the best performing models historically seem to be Cat 2 and above. (Tropical Tidbits)

Notably, the NHC said in their discussion this morning that every Google Deep Mind ensemble member is showing a Cat 4 or 5 intensity. Basically, expect at least a major hurricane, probably a high-end major hurricane.

The rainfall story continues to look bad

Rain totals are expected to pile up in Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba over the next several days into Tuesday or Wednesday. So we have about 24 hours or so more beyond the forecast below. I would expect numerous 20 inch totals in southern Haiti, parts of Jamaica, and perhaps 10 to 15 inches or more in southeast Cuba.

Rain totals for the next 72 hours. (NOAA WPC)

About 5 to 10 inches will fall in the southeast Bahamas and/or Turks and Caicos Islands by the time all is said and done. 20 inch totals in Haiti and/or Jamaica will be potentially catastrophic. The problem continues to be a slow-moving major hurricane in close proximity to Jamaica. Several days of strong winds and torrential rain and pounding surf. It’s just a very bad story. I am sure folks in these areas, while hurricane hardy and prepared for this storm, will be severely impacted. Please make sure any relatives or friends you have in these areas are monitoring this and doing whatever they can to get to a safe, sturdy shelter and location for several days.

We’ll have another update on Melissa this evening.