Catching our breath for a few days after a busy month in the Atlantic basin

Headlines

  • Leslie heading out to sea while Invest 94L may develop just west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
  • We are monitoring the western Caribbean next weekend, but there is still nothing of specific significance that we can state about the potential of development, and we urge you to not fall prey to one-off model runs that show scary outcomes.
  • Thank you to our Friday featured sponsor: Senior Health Services!
  • The close of our post talks a bit about or mission and goal for this site, as well as what we don’t want to be!

Leslie and 94L way out in the Atlantic

We’re beginning a period of calmer conditions in the tropics. At least as it relates to land-impacts from tropical systems. Milton is now history. Leslie is still churning away in the open Atlantic but it too will soon be history.

Tropical Storm Leslie may brush the Azores as a non-tropical storm on the way out to sea. (NOAA NHC)

Off the coast of Africa, we currently have Invest 94L. This looks ready to pop in the next few days. Model guidance agrees on this, and the overall environment looks decent. Steering winds should bring it west across the Atlantic.

Invest 94L looks fairly healthy over the Cabo Verde Islands and could develop in the next few days as it migrates westward. (Weathernerds.org)

While this is unlikely to threaten the U.S. at any point, this is at least something to monitor if you live in the Caribbean. It’s still a solid week away, but with water temperatures still sitting near all-time records in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic, the right environment could easily incubate a strengthening storm.

Tropical cyclone origins and tracks since 1851 from October 11th through the 20th. (NOAA NHC)

That said, this would be unusually far east for a storm to develop this late in the season. Only one system has formed east of the Cabo Verde Islands since 1851 in mid-October, and only a couple others within 10 degrees of longitude west of there. If 94L forms soon, it would be an oddity. Most storms that form in the central or eastern Atlantic this late in the season tend to curve out to sea before getting to the islands, but obviously some have come close.

We’ll keep an eye on 94L and have more for you Monday.

Eyes on the Caribbean?

There was one particular GFS operational model run yesterday that sent some folks into a tizzy over the potential for a big hurricane in the Gulf in about 10 to 12 days. I want to remind you all that operational model runs like that specific GFS run are not suited to trust more than 5 to 7 days out. Even within 5 to 7 days there are often issues and miscalculations with the model. So don’t panic when you see that.

Zero consistency between runs on the GFS operational model and little to no additional model support for a storm in the western Gulf. (Tropical Tidbits)

No consistency, no trustworthiness.

Most models agree in a tropical disturbance trying to form in the western Caribbean sometime later next week.

There is decent agreement on the potential for a tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean next weekend. (Weathernerds.org)

This is a century away in model terms, and there is very little agreement on where things go from here, if anywhere at all. We have a very long time to watch this area, but I would encourage you not to stress over things. A lot of moving parts will impact whether or not this develops, including cold fronts, locations of specific features, etc. Right now, we simply have nothing intelligible to really say about this other than a disturbance is possible there in a week’s time. Anyone selling anything specific at this point should be added to your “do not trust” list immediately. More on this Monday.

Friday featured sponsor: Senior Health Services

Thank you to Senior Health Services and all our sponsors for their support of The Eyewall this season!

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A final word

We have had some very spirited comments in recent posts, which have been useful and interesting conversationally! We encourage that. We just ask to keep it respectful. I don’t want to have to moderate or shut things down at any point. We trust y’all to treat each other with courtesy.

Secondly, I just want to clarify a couple misconceptions I read. We did not build this site for Houston. While we hope Houstonians will use it as a companion to the robust information we offer at Space City Weather, we built this site for everyone else, truthfully. There are a handful of good blogs out there talking about the weather, and we want to join them. I hope any of you in Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, or the Carolinas will share this site with your friends and family. We try not to advertise and prefer our growth to be by word of mouth in most cases. Let our work speak for itself.

There are two primary reasons we don’t post 5 or 6 updates a day when a storm threatens someone. First, honestly, not a whole lot changes from morning to evening. Yes, a storm can rapidly intensify or change intensity but in general, that doesn’t have a massive impact on the forecast, and if it does, in most cases a second post later in the day will cover it. We live in a world with frequent, *URGENT* push alerts. We aren’t that. We don’t want to oversaturate you with repetitive stuff just so we can show we’re still on top of things and generate traffic for the sake of traffic. We want our posts to carry value and information, not regurgitation. Second, we are not local experts on Tampa or Jacksonville or Cape Hatteras or Charleston. We could never be. We know a bit, in some cases a lot about geography. But the local nuance can only be covered by local experts. That’s why at a point, we want you to find trusted local sources of information to turn to, such as your local NWS office or a particular broadcaster or online source in your region. Simply, we cannot do at scale what they do for you locally. So yes, please use us! But make sure you’ve got someone not from Houston that you’re following to give you that local insight or nuance that you need.

As always, thanks for your support, follow us on social media, and share us with your friends and family!

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As Milton exits Florida, we reflect and have to ask what’s next

Headlines

  • Hurricane Milton is now a non-tropical storm as it moves out to sea.
  • A very historic tornado outbreak, flash flooding, and storm surge were all elements of Milton that were notable in Florida.
  • In the deep Atlantic, Hurricane Leslie is headed out to sea.
  • There are hints of additional development chances late next week in the western Caribbean, but it is way, way too soon to speculate on whether that happens for real or where it would go if it did.

Milton’s mess

Hurricane Milton is moving farther away from Florida this afternoon. We say good riddance. There will be a number of things to discuss in the wake of Milton, from its incredible intensity ramp up to its precipitous weakening and how that may have played a role in surge, track, winds, flooding, and the daytime tornado outbreak in eastern Florida. We’ll place a bookmark here and come back to it at some point in the offseason I think.

Milton is now transitioning from a tropical system to a non-tropical system as it moves out to sea. (Weathernerds.org)

The elements of Milton that were most noteworthy in my opinion:

Each red dot signifies a tornado report from yesterday. The hardest hit area was from Palm City through Fort Pierce into Vero Beach. (NOAA SPC)
  • The huge footprint of heavy, flooding rainfall. We had a wide area of rain totals that exceeded 10 inches with a 100 to 500 year return period between Tampa and Daytona Beach. The flash flooding is likely to have caused significant damage across the region.
Total rainfall in excess of a foot (dark purple) covered a wide area of the I-4 corridor. Heavy rain also occurred to the north into Jacksonville. (NOAA NSSL MRMS)
  • Then, obviously, the storm surge. How bad was it between Longboat Key, Sarasota, Siesta Key, and Venice? That’s only just now becoming clearer. It’s been tough to find hard station data but I have seen a report of 7 foot water levels near Venice, which would equate to at least 6 to 7 feet of surge. One would assume that water levels were somewhat higher to the north of there near Siesta Key and Sarasota, possibly up to 10 feet or so.

Between Milton and Helene, we’ve had a rough few weeks in the Southeast. We hope for the best for those impacted and for the recovery process to be as painless as possible.

What’s next?

In the deep Atlantic we have Hurricane Leslie that is on its last legs as it motors out to sea.

But there are hints on the models at least of a new potential disturbance in the Caribbean. This is still about a week or more out. But it seems that if something were to develop in the next 2 weeks, this is where it would happen.

The potential for new development in the western Caribbean is not zero late next week. But it’s too soon to speculate on what that looks like or where it goes. (Weathernerds.org)

While this will certainly get a lot of folks riled up, it’s important to note that with this being a week or more out, there is no guarantee anything will develop, nor is there any knowledge of where anything will go if it does develop at this point. All we can do right now is speculate that something could possibly develop in the western Caribbean in a week to 10 days. That’s a long time out, so don’t start stressing right now.

Storm surge spares Tampa, but the rain does not, with a major flash flooding event underway

Headlines

  • Milton made landfall near Siesta Key earlier this evening.
  • Storm surge of 8 to 10 feet is likely to have occurred near Sarasota through Venice.
  • Surge of 5 to 6 feet is causing major flooding in Fort Myers, Naples, Punta Gorda, and elsewhere down the coast.
  • Tampa Bay was spared the worst case scenario surge.
  • But major to catastrophic flash flooding is now ongoing in the Tampa metro area, with torrential rain expanding north and east up I-4 toward Orlando.
  • Over 1.5 million customers experiencing power outages now in Florida.

Hurricane Milton made landfall near Siesta Key this evening as a category 3 hurricane. An approximately 10 foot storm surge came ashore in Sarasota, while Tampa Bay ranged from negative surge (water being flushed out of the bay) in the upper part of the bay to about 2 feet in the lower part. Had Milton made landfall even 15 to 20 miles farther north, we’re talking about a 10 to 12 foot surge into Tampa Bay. That’s how close it came for Tampa…20 miles. Farther down the coast, about a 5 to 6 foot surge is ongoing in Fort Myers. There are videos from Venice floating around showing pretty terrible surge as well. So I presume daylight will bring a pretty rough scene in Sarasota, Venice, and Longboat Key, among other places.

A 5 foot surge in Fort Myers this evening is leading to major flooding. (NOAA NWS)

Relentless rain is pounding the Tampa metro area and now spreading north and east across the Florida Peninsula. Totals for today have been up to 17 inches in St. Petersburg and over 10 inches around much of Tampa.

Tampa area rain totals so far today. (NOAA NWS)

There’s still a good deal more rain to come though hopefully the pace will slow somewhat. A flash flood emergency is in effect in Tampa. Catastrophic flooding is possible from the rainfall. This may not be the last flash flood emergency we see this evening, with torrential rain working northeast on I-4 toward Orlando and Deltona.

Torrential rain, serious flash flooding and strong winds are headed to Orlando soon. (RadarScope)

Several inches of rain will fall in a short time here, and severe flash flooding may occur. Thankfully, the tornado threat has pushed offshore for now, and though an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out there should not be the ridiculous pace we saw earlier today. The damage in eastern Florida from tornadoes is going to be more significant than we typically see in a tropical system. Why this storm went ballistic whereas other do not is a complex topic to get into but perhaps one we can touch on during the offseason.

Next update will be in the morning sometime. Wishing all the best in Florida.

Florida dealing with tornadoes and now storm surge as Milton is on final approach to the west coast

Headlines

  • Milton’s eyewall with powerful winds and a dramatic rise in water from storm surge is about to begin coming ashore between Saint Petersburg and North Venice.
  • Tampa Bay may empty out as it approaches (as seen in Irma and Ian), and you should not be anywhere near the bay, as water may come rushing back in quickly and without warning.
  • The worst surge will come dangerously close to moving into portions of Tampa Bay south through Venice.
  • Significant surge will continue building south of there to Fort Myers and on the east coast as well.
  • A historic tornado outbreak has been ongoing across the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and will continue a bit longer.
  • Flooding from another 10 inches of rain is likely in the northern half of the Peninsula.
  • Milton exits tomorrow to the east and out to sea.
Milton’s forecast takes it far away eventually. (NOAA NHC)

Hurricane Milton is gradually approaching the coast of Florida. It remains an unnervingly close call for Tampa Bay as every wobble makes a difference right now. But it appears the landfall window is between North Venice and Fort De Soto at the entrance to Tampa Bay. The worst of the surge and wind will probably impact the area between Tampa Bay and Venice, with significant surge to the south of there as well. The surge forecast has been adjusted somewhat today.

Storm surge is going to rapidly pick up over the next 2 to 4 hours. (NOAA NHC)

We still expect significant to borderline catastrophic flooding and inundation in some communities unfortunately. Surge values are currently about 1 to 4 feet on the west coast of Florida. Again, near and south of where this makes landfall will see a dramatic increase in water levels soon as that center approaches.

I can not say this loud enough: If water exits Tampa Bay as we saw with Ian and Irma, do not, I repeat, *do not* go into or near the bay to gawk. This one is coming in much closer to Tampa and it’s possible a wall of water comes rushing back in at some point. You will be trapped.

Milton is not as intense in terms of wind (now a cat 3 with 120 mph winds), but it has essentially doubled in size since this morning with tropical storm force winds extending out as much as 250 miles from the center. Hurricane force winds remain confined mostly to that eyewall that is preparing to come onshore near Sarasota and Bradenton. Conditions will get very, very nasty over the next 2 to 4 hours.

Hurricane Milton’s vicious northern eyewall is preparing to come ashore now near and north of Sarasota with powerful wind and a dramatic increase in storm surge. (RadarScope)

This is the time where you shelter in place and hope for the best. We certainly hope for the best for folks in Florida too.

Milton has been a prolific tornado producer in Florida today.

A map of all tornado warnings issued through 4:40 PM ET in Florida today. (Iowa State Mesonet)

It will take time to weed through the warnings, reports, and damage, but I am certain we will have one of Florida’s most significant tornado outbreaks when all is said and done. Additional tornadoes are possible as the center moves across the state.

Flooding rains continue also, with as much as 2 to 5 inches so far across Florida and a lot more to come.

Rain totals so far today from Milton. (NOAA NWS)

Those rains continue tonight, and we’ll see flooding expand and worsen across the northern half of the Florida Peninsula. As much as another 10 inches or so is possible.

Milton will exit and turn into an extratropical storm (basically akin to a nor’easter or generic “coastal” storm) tomorrow as it rushes out to sea. We can then begin to assess the damage. All the best to our Florida friends, and we’ll have another brief update either mid-evening or in the morning.