Mountain snow in the West and watching another potential fire weather day in the Texas Panhandle Sunday

Today’s headlines

  • Snow continues to pile up in the Sierra, while heavy snows will expand into the interior West as well through the weekend.
  • Numerous record highs possible this weekend in the Plains and Midwest.
  • Strong winds and drier air will produce critical fire weather days in the Texas and/or Oklahoma Panhandles Saturday and Sunday.

Western snow will pile up

The multi-day snowstorm in the Sierra is underway with blizzard warnings and travel advisories hoisted in much of that area.

Magnifeye.com has a good display of various CalTrans webcams along I-80 (and elsewhere), and you can see road conditions are snowy. (Magnifeye.com)

Additional snow will be measured in feet as the storm continues today and tomorrow. Conditions should begin to improve in the Sierra on Sunday with less intense and sustained snow. Snow showers and snow levels down to perhaps as low as 1,000 feet will continue Sunday and possibly Monday as well.

Additional snowfall through Monday morning will continue to blast the Sierra and Lake Tahoe. (NWS Reno)

The combination of wind and mountain snow across the West will continue to be an issue into the weekend. The NWS winter storm severity index maxes out at extreme levels in Wyoming and major levels in parts of the Wasatch in Utah.

Over the next 3 days, you can see the extreme impacts expected in California. But localized extreme winter storm impacts will occur in Wyoming with widespread major impacts, along with some major impacts expected in Utah’s Wasatch. (Pivotal Weather)

Overall, just a really impactful and beneficial storm for Western U.S. snowpack and water concerns; a little rough in the near term but good news over the longer term.

Record warmth overtakes the Midwest — again

What goes down, must come up. With a deep trough in the West helping to aid storminess and snow, there is a subsequent broad ridge over the Central and Eastern U.S. this weekend. That setup is one that is conducive to warm weather, and indeed numerous locations are forecast to come near record highs on Saturday and Sunday.

The upper air map around 20,000 feet this weekend shows a dip in the jet stream in the West (trough) and a ridge in the East, which will help to amplify warm weather this weekend. (Tropical Tidbits)

A few notable ones will occur in Wisconsin with Wausau expected to be 68 degrees on Sunday and La Crosse at 74 degrees. The previous records at those locations on Sunday are 52° and 66° respectively. Admittedly, the Wausau record is extremely low hanging fruit, but even La Crosse is an impressive record considering the previous mark was set in 1894.

Record warmth will once again overtake Wisconsin and much of the Midwest this weekend. Sunday’s forecast highs are shown here. (Pivotal Weather)

Both La Crosse and Wausau have already set or tied 6 to 7 record high temperatures so far this year. Add another one or two to that now. We’re probably not done with the abnormally warm weather either.

Fire weather risks increase again in the Texas Panhandle

The Texas Panhandle saw snow yesterday, just two days after the hellacious wildfire that has consumed over a million acres and become the largest wildfire in Texas history. That moisture was modest at best, so it did not do much other than help accelerate some containment efforts. Unfortunately, this weekend will bring another round of windy, dry weather to the Panhandle, and that could produce a critical fire weather day on both Saturday on Sunday.

Additional critical to locally extreme fire weather risk will overspread the Texas Panhandle this weekend. (NWS Amarillo)

Conditions should not be quite as extreme as were witnessed earlier this week, but the ongoing fires plus risk of any new fire starts with resources stretched to their maximum makes this weekend a more vulnerable one than usual for this region. While rainfall is above normal for the winter season in this part of Texas, that isn’t saying much given that “normal” is pretty low already. A storm or two would go a long way toward helping the situation in the Panhandle.

Rainfall over the next 7 days in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles looks minimal. (Pivotal Weather)

Unfortunately, at least over the next week or so, any rain chances look paltry at best in this region. Hopefully we can turn the corner later this month.

Sierra snow, late season lake effect snow, more Plains fire danger, and more really warm weather to usher in March

Today’s headlines

  • Cold front off the West Coast about to kick off Sierra snow blitz.
  • Heavy lake effect snow just north of Syracuse today.
  • Multiple days of strong winds move from the West into the Plains bringing elevated fire danger once again.
  • More record warmth possible this weekend in the Midwest, Lakes, and Canada.
The U.S. weather map today shows a powerful cold front on the West Coast that will set off the Sierra snowstorm, a few showers and even some wintry precip in Texas, and heavy lake effect snow in Central New York. (NOAA WPC)

Sierra snow blitz

As noted yesterday, blizzard warnings are in place now in California from near Mt. Shasta south to about Sequoia National Park, encompassing most of the Sierra.

A slew of watches, warnings, and advisories are posted all over the West. (Pivotal Weather)

Upwards of 4 to 8 or 5 to 10 feet of snow are expected in the highest elevations, with snow levels down to about 4,500 feet today, 2,000 feet tomorrow, and perhaps as low as 1,000 feet on Saturday. While a lot of the worst of the weather will occur in the backcountry, there will be plenty of folks impacted by this long-duration storm. Travel looks to be severely impacted heading over the Sierra between Sacramento and Reno. In addition, winter storm warnings are posted in Nevada, with perhaps as much as a foot of snow in Reno. Lake Tahoe will be hammered by this one, with 5 to 6 feet expected.

The impressive snowfall forecast for the Sierra showing over 100 inches in spots between today and Sunday. (NWS Reno)

This is both good and bad. Obviously, an extreme winter storm, even in a winter-durable place like the Sierra is capable of causing severe problems. On the flip side, the Sierra snowpack needs a boost. Snow water equivalents, or how much liquid is in the snowpack have been running a deficit for most of winter. Still, 75 to 90 percent of normal isn’t the worst we’ve seen in California in the last 5 to 10 years. This time last year, these values were 150 to 200 percent of normal.

The Sierra snow water equivalent (how much water is in the snowpack) is running a deficit currently, with about 75 to 90% of normal values. (California DWR)

What will this storm do to the snowpack? Probably send it sharply above average. Liquid totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected within all this snow. We’ll check in on this again next week.

Elsewhere on the winter weather front, a burst of lake effect snow will impact Upstate New York today, with some heavy snow north of Syracuse, perhaps over a foot.

Heavy lake effect snow will setup shop just north of Syracuse and perhaps into the Mohawk Valley of Central NY today. Over a foot is possible between Syracuse and Oswego. (NWS Binghamton)

Winds to expand across the West; fire weather risks in the Plains

On the map farther above, you can see a lot of wind advisories and warnings in place for the Western United States. Not only will this storm bring heavy snow to parts of the West, it will also bring strong winds (hence the blizzard warnings in California). You can see the forecast for today has 50 mph or stronger winds in a good swath of Nevada (as well as southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho).

Strong winds, especially in Nevada, southern Oregon, and southwest Idaho have prompted numerous alerts out West. (Pivotal Weather)

The strong winds have also prompted red flag warnings for fire danger in Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa today. By Saturday and Sunday, higher fire danger returns to the Texas Panhandle, which is still dealing with active fires in the wake of Tuesday. The snow and rain in that area will certainly help today and may help allow for Sunday to be less of a critical fire weather day than Tuesday was. Still, it’s not quite enough to dramatically reduce the risk by the time we get to Sunday.

The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting Sunday as a potential serious fire weather day in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles once again. (NOAA SPC)

We’ll keep an eye on this, as that part of Texas really took a hit on Tuesday.

More serious warmth for the Lakes and Midwest into Canada

Warm weather will continue to absolutely dominate the story across the Great Lakes and Midwest. It will actually be warmest relative to normal in Canada, with portions of Quebec averaging 12 to 16 degrees above normal for days 3 to 7.

The temperature anomaly forecast for days 3 through 7 continues to show raging warmth from the Midwest into Canada, with the warmest temperatures compared to normal focused on Quebec. (Tropical Tidbits)

Record temperatures will be in jeopardy. La Crosse, WI for example is forecast to be 73° on Sunday. The record high is 66°, set back in 1894. Some other Midwest and Lakes locations will threaten some pretty old records by later in the weekend.

A whole bunch of unusual, rare, and wild weather is happening simultaneously all over North America

One-sentence summary

Between extreme warmth, tornadoes in odd places, raging fires in Texas, and a blizzard in California, there is no shortage of wild, rare weather to close February.

Tornadoes in Michigan in February?

In and of themselves, tornadoes in Michigan are not uncommon. Tornadoes in winter are rare. Only six previously documented tornadoes have occurred in Michigan in December, January, or February since 1950. Add another two to that after last night.

Storm reports from Tuesday show several tornado reports in red dots in Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois. (NOAA SPC)

According to the Storm Prediction Center, two tornadoes were reported yesterday, one near Marshall and another near Grand Blanc, MI. The other winter tornadoes included one in January 1996 near Richland, MI (just outside Battle Creek and Kalamazoo), one west of Detroit in December 2015, and then four on the last day of February in 2017 near the Indiana border.

So, winter tornadoes are rare to begin with, yet having one as far northeast as Grand Blanc, which is near Flint seems completely out of place in the wintertime. This comes on the heels of Wisconsin recording their first February tornado on record earlier this month. January tornadoes have occurred in Wisconsin, with Janesville on the receiving end of an especially bad one in 1967.

Front page of the Janesville, WI Daily Gazette from January 25, 1967, the day after a tornado ravaged the area. (Newspapers.com)

Tornado statistics are tough to do a whole lot with authoritatively. Some tornadoes are very brief and never reported. Reports have increased dramatically since records started being kept, so it’s entirely possible we’re missing some reports from back in the day. But however you want to slice it, tornadoes this far north during this time of year are straight up rare. And to have more than one distinct event in a very far north part of the country this close in proximity to one another further underscores how unusual this is.

Record warmth over a tremendous swath of real estate

On the day of the Janesville tornado noted above, they hit 60 degrees before dropping to about 25 the next morning. Interestingly, if you look at Cold Spring, WI just northeast of Janesville, they pulled off one heck of a change yesterday to today. Temperatures were over 71 degrees yesterday and dropped to below 13 degrees this morning.

Dozens and dozens of records were smashed this week, including multiple monthly temperature records. Monthly records fell in Quebec, Ontario, Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Arkansas, according to Maximiliano Herrera, who keeps an exhaustive record of these things.

Dozens of daily record temperatures occurred yesterday and this morning across much of the Midwest, Mid-Continent, and Great Lakes. (Coolwx.com)

Not only are some of these monthly records being replaced, they’re being replaced by several degrees and being attained in multiple, disparate spots in these states. Even Mexico has seen incredible extent of record warmth. The breadth of the warm weather we’ve seen at times in the last few years boggles the minds of many meteorologists, including those like ourselves that tend to view things from a grounded, level-headed perspective.

Texas Panhandle burning

Over the last few days, a number of fires have broken out in parts of the Texas Panhandle. Fire behavior went off the rails yesterday, as strong winds ahead of a cold front and strong winds and dry air behind the cold front allowed for extreme growth and spread.

A annotated map of the extent of various Texas Panhandle fires as of Wednesday afternoon. (Wildfire.gov)

We’ve seen bad fires in Texas before, especially in the Panhandle. This in and of itself is not necessarily uncommon. March and April tend to be the big Texas fire months historically, so this is certainly at least a bit early. Texas’s largest wildfire (going back to the 1980s) was the East Amarillo Complex, which occurred in March of 2006. The Smokehouse Creek complex is now the second largest on record in Texas, thanks in part to how quickly it grew yesterday. What is intriguing to me is how this happened despite that part of Texas being mostly out of drought. Compare the Drought Monitor maps below showing current conditions to the conditions preceding the 2006 East Amarillo complex. There are notable differences here.

An image comparison of the current drought status in the Panhandle and the drought status preceding the largest wildfire in Texas history, the East Amarillo complex. (U.S. Drought Monitor)

Whatever the case, the burn scar is clearly visible this morning on satellite imagery, a depressing coda to a pretty terrible situation for the Panhandle.

The burn scar from wildfires in the Texas Panhandle is visible on satellite imagery today. (College of DuPage)

California blizzard warnings for the Sierra

When we think of the Sierra Nevada in California, snow certainly comes to mind. But not often do Blizzard Warnings get issued in that part of the world. The storm that will impact them over the coming days has prompted some pretty severe warnings about travel and conditions within the mountains. Upwards of 5 to 10 feet of snow could fall, likely shifting the Sierra from deficit to surplus on the season in terms of snowpack.

Timeline of the upcoming storm in the Sierra that will dump 5 to 10 feet of snow in some spots. (NWS Sacramento)

The last such blizzard type event literally occurred a year ago. This storm looks even more powerful.

Additional rain will occur for parts of California as well, including a chance of thunderstorms for places including San Francisco.

Between rain and the water contained in the snowpack that’s going to build this weekend, a whole lot of water is headed to California again. (Pivotal Weather)

The bottom line is that the weather is pretty wild right now. While some of it is typical for a spring-type setup, a lot of abnormal, unusual, and rare things are occurring simultaneously, a theme we’ve grappled with on more than one occasion recently.

Seasonal hurricane commentary is beginning to buzz: What we actually know right now

One-sentence summary

With early hurricane season commentary beginning to emerge, we take a look at what is known here in late February.

Tropical aggression

Yesterday, AccuWeather, the private forecasting company from State College, PA published an article expressing concern for the upcoming hurricane season, using words like “super charged” and “blockbuster.” I’m not writing today to dunk on AccuWeather. I personally know a number of folks that work there, several of whom I would consider friends of mine. But I want folks to understand both the realities and limitations of hurricane forecasting in February.

About a month ago, we posted an article in which we shared some commentary about the upcoming hurricane season. In it, I wrote that “the combination of warm water and a weakening El Niño probably suggests an active hurricane season ahead in 2024.” I also noted that you’d probably be seeing some aggressive seasonal outlooks. Consider that article from AccuWeather to be a first or second volley. It’s important to note a couple things though. As is often the case, it’s the buzzwords that grab people’s attention and leads to accusations of hype in some circles. But the content of their actual article is fundamentally sound! There is one element I take issue with, and that’s their description of the Texas coast being at higher risk than usual for the upcoming season.

Forecasting landfall patterns consistently this far ahead of time is really, really hard. I’ve never found anyone that has done it successfully and at a consistent level. Anyone can claim they nailed a seasonal call this far out, but they’ve probably also had 50 false alarms to go with their handful of victories. Colorado State University, which releases a highly anticipated outlook each season has actually put their verification metrics online, and they did well this past season. But while they offer a landfall probability table by state, they are intentionally broad in their discussion, because specifically narrowing down a section of, say, a state’s coastline being at higher risk than another is difficult. If Texas is at higher risk, does that mean Louisiana is not? What of Mexico? At what point does “higher risk” kick in?

I don’t want to fault anyone or say I am against seasonal forecasts. I am not. But we have to be extremely careful how specific we get in February. The peak of hurricane season is still about six and a half months away.

So where do we stand now?

If you read last month’s post, the general takeaway was that there was no reason to forecast anything other than an active hurricane season in 2024. How active and how bad was TBD. Has anything changed since then? Not really.

First, a look at sea surface temperatures (SSTs) shows that the Atlantic remains obscenely warm. Obscenely warm.

Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, especially the Main Development Region west of Africa are significantly above normal. A lot can change between now and summer, but these temperatures are more typical for July than February. (Weather Bell)

Seeing this in February is truly remarkable, as these readings, specifically in the Main Development Region are more normal for July. It’s February 21st, so a lot can change between now and June or July or August. But, suffice to say, this is as strong a signal for an active hurricane season as you would likely ever see. So, the SST checkbox is checked for “Active” for another month.

What about El Niño? Well, there are ample signs that it is beginning to wane as expected. The animation below shows SST anomalies from the Equatorial Pacific Ocean from the ocean surface (top) to 450 meters below the surface (bottom). Notice how a lot of the deep warm water, particularly on the right side of the image (the Eastern Pacific) gets eroded away in the last few frames. That’s a sign of colder water making a return to the ocean’s subsurface in the Pacific. It won’t take much to begin to wind down the El Niño from this point.

El Niño is being slowly devoured from below by colder water in the Pacific. (NOAA)

Again, it’s not uncommon for an El Niño as strong as this one to quickly weaken in springtime. And it appears this year will fit that trend. But where it goes from here is equally important in terms of how it may impact hurricane season. The latest long range forecast from a slew of government agencies shows about 2/3 of ensemble members taking us to La Niña by mid-summer and about 1/3 holding us back.

The latest C3S multi-system forecast for ENSO shows about a 65/35 split among various model ensemble members taking us into La Niña this summer. (ECMWF/Copernicus)

Ensemble forecasting is the best approach most times, especially at this timeframe because instead of one deterministic outcome, we get to see generally what the consensus is and where any reasonable subset of outliers exists. I look at these charts frequently, and a couple items stand out right now. First, the majority take us into La Niña by July, if not June. Second, some of these model members really take us into La Niña, perhaps moderately so by mid-summer. However, there is also a subset of members that pull a Lee Corso, trying to drift us back into El Niño after dragging us back to near neutral. The takeaway here is that the odds seem to favor La Niña, and indeed, NOAA did recently issue a La Niña Watch. But there is still some inherent uncertainty, and oh yeah, we are in what is termed the “spring predictability barrier,” which is a fascinating study in how models can be truly imperfect. I do think they’re getting better at this and perhaps this barrier isn’t as strong as it once was. But the stench of busted forecasts past does still linger in close enough proximity for me to proceed with caution.

So, the verdict? An exceptionally warm Atlantic Ocean, and odds favoring La Niña development this summer continue to suggest an active hurricane season ahead. But where those storms go, how strong they are, and when they’ll be at their worst is a forecast that is close to impossible to make at this juncture. As always, if you live in a hurricane-prone region, the best advice in any hurricane season is to be prepared as if that season were the one.