In brief: Stormy weather will bring some risk of flooding to Texas and perhaps Oklahoma over the next 5 days, followed by another storm system and cooler weather in the Eastern U.S. next week, just in time for Thanksgiving. Wednesday’s travel weather doesn’t look horrendous right now, but there are a couple things to watch. Plus, some links on newsier bits going on.
It’s Wednesday, November 19th, and I just wanted to check in with our audience! I am working on a more robust piece in the background on the Colorado River, a topic that is critically important beyond just the Southwest. This has ramifications nationally. A lot is going on there right now, and I’m trying to throw together a simple explainer piece for you all to understand it, as well as dump a list of books and blogs that I’ve found useful (or need to read more about) regarding this issue. Look for that soon.
In the meantime, it’s been quiet in the Eastern U.S., while busy in the West with flash flooding in California, and flood watches currently posted in Arizona.
Parts of SoCal have been drenched with the mountains north of LA seeing anywhere from 5 to 15 inches of water over the last couple weeks. California needs the water, of course, but these storms have been fairly warm, so snowpack is not a real serious consideration yet, but in general, the highest peaks are now running above average in California, Arizona, and southern Utah.
In the East, it’s warm weather that we’re talking about. Numerous record highs will be threatened today and tomorrow across the Southeast and parts of Texas. While the pace of record warmth should ease up this weekend, generally above normal temperatures look to continue into the first part of Thanksgiving week before a cooldown in time for the holiday.
However, a series of disturbances in the Southern Plains will create a bit of a flooding threat, particularly in Texas. Rain totals of 2-5 inches are possible, if not likely from parts of the Rio Grande Valley through Hill Country into the DFW Metro. At this time, the risk of excessive, severe flash flooding looks low. But every so often, you can get a random band of storms in a situation like this capable of dumping 6 to 10 inches of rain on someone. Hence, flood watches are posted for Hill Country.
A second storm system will cross the state this weekend and next week bringing additional rain Monday and Tuesday before quieter weather.
Thanksgiving weather
It’s a bit early to get too specific regarding Thanksgiving, but we can begin to make some assumptions. First, for the big travel day on Wednesday, it looks relatively quiet in Texas and the Southwest. An incoming storm system may be possible in the Northwest. We can look at probabilities of 0.01″ of liquid as a rough barometer for where weather will occur. It seems plausible that thunderstorms could impact travel through Atlanta or Florida. Winds could impact flights in Chicago and Minneapolis. And a storm system could bring some precipitation to the Northeast and/or Midwest, depending on exact timing. It does not appear that holiday travel looks severely disrupted at this time, but you may still want to watch the forecast.
The environment could become favorable for some lake effect snow later Wednesday or Thursday in the Great Lakes. Temperature anomalies for Thanksgiving Day don’t look overly impressive, but some colder air will give it the autumn chill that often defines late November from the Plains and Texas into the Midwest and parts of the East. The West looks mild.
For those of you hearing chatter about stratospheric warming and the polar vortex breaking down and other such things, this is not that. Impacts from that stratospheric warming event (if they are felt at all) would occur more into December. It’s important to keep in mind that not all stratospheric warming events are equal. Some lead to cold. Others have minimal impact. This is a branch of the science we’re gradually learning more about but are not quite experts in just yet.
Newsy bits
FEMA: The head of FEMA stepped down this week. David Richardson, who has headed the agency for the last 6 months or so was criticized for not being reachable for a full 24 hours after the July 4th floods in Texas, a pretty inexcusable moment to go MIA. Richardson, with no EM experience, admitted he thought his job was to shut down the agency, when in reality (as we’ve seen many times when folks get put in these positions), he sees the need for the agency. FEMA has issues and needs reform at scale. I trust folks like Colleen Hagerty and Samantha Montano on covering these issues. But the current administration’s desire to eliminate it entirely and push everything onto states indicates a fundamental misunderstanding of disaster response and an agency that is already greatly misunderstood by politicians and the public alike. FEMA serves a vital function in a nation that is frequently impacted by disasters.
FEMA II: Of course, who is next is the question. There is some chatter about the administration’s desire to get the head of the Texas Division of Emergency Management, Nim Kidd to be the head of FEMA. Kidd has said he won’t leave Texas. So could the administration bring FEMA to him? I will say that when you have a strong candidate for a position, it is wise to make concessions, however, moving the entire agency for one individual seems a bit much. Anyway, grab the popcorn over the next few weeks.
Western Alaska: The village of Quinhagak in Alaska lost about 60 feet of shoreline from the remnants of Typhoon Halong in October. Concerns about environmental risk were being investigated, but it also disrupted the Nunalleq archaeological site, a significant pre-contact Yup’ik site there, scattering artifacts across the beach. Efforts were undertaken to save as much of it as possible. (Alaska Public Media) Here is a mid-November update on the rebuilding efforts underway. (Alaska Public Media) How local public media was a lifeline for rural, isolated communities in Alaska during Halong. And how it’s now being dismantled due to Trump Administration budget cuts. (Alaska Public Media)
Iceland: Mosquitoes have been found in the wild Iceland for the first time in recorded history. Whether it is related to climate change or just a hitchhiker that arrived as Icelandic tourism continues to thrive, no one knows. But if a population does become established there, it obviously would not be good. Bugs like mosquitoes can survive cold though, so we’ll see if this is a blip or a trend. (New York Times)
Grand Junction, Colorado: The Aedes aegypti mosquito is establishing itself in parts of the West where it was never deemed possible previously. The culprit? Climate change. As nighttimes warm, the mosquitos have fewer opportunities to be wiped out due to harsh cold that periodically has arrived in the interior West. Grand Junction saw the fewest nights below freezing on record last winter, and it’s allowing these creatures an opportunity to survive in new places. (Inside Climate News)
Louisiana: Could floating homes help solve issues of housing and flooding risk in places like New Orleans? The idea that a home could float as water rises instead of the structure flooding is an intriguing one. Can it be done sustainably and cost-effectively? The concept has worked in some places with less engineered structures, so the question becomes whether existing, bulkier homes could be retrofitted in a way. (The Current, Lafayette, LA)
Panama Canal: Droughts, such as the one experienced in 2023 could become more frequent in the future with climate change, new research shows. At a previous job, I dealt with questions about this drought involving Gatun Lake, the primary source of water to help fill the locks in the canal (as well as a major drinking water source). While the lake often fluctuates due to El Niño and La Niña precipitation patterns in the Pacific, more frequent droughts or at least more frequent extremes is a common concern across the globe as the planet warms. (AGU)