Tropical Storm Sara near the Honduras coast, a Central America flood maker

Headlines

• Catastrophic flooding from Sara is possible in northwest Honduras.
• Significant flooding and mudslide risk exists elsewhere, from the southeastern Yucatan into Belize and in portions of Nicaragua.
• Sara is very close to the coast of Honduras now and should generally maintain intensity with just a little strengthening once back out over water en route to Belize Sunday.
• Sara’s remnants will be absorbed into a Gulf of Mexico cold front next week with no direct impacts to the U.S. expected.

Tropical Storm Sara dumping rainfall on Honduras

We’ve been discussing Sara all week, and the one element we keep trying to hammer home is the flooding threat this storm provides for Honduras in particular but now also Belize.

The mountainous portions of northwest Honduras are likely to see the worst of the flooding. Rain totals may exceed 20 to 25 inches in this area (500 to 600 mm). Outside of that, rain totals north of 10 inches are likely from Quintana Roo into Belize, the central coast of Honduras, and perhaps into portions of Nicaragua. These types of storms typically end poorly in these areas, so all we can do at this point is hope for the best.

In terms of the tropical element of things, the National Hurricane Center noted this morning that there is a distinct lack of observations available from Honduras, so trying to pin down the center of the storm has been challenging. But using satellite, we can see where the heaviest thunderstorms are at least.

And indeed those heavy storms are hammering portions of western Honduras. Sara will likely hold steady or weaken just a bit depending on if it’s over land or over water. All in all, we don’t expect a whole lot of major change in Sara’s intensity over the next couple days. Sara will have a little runway to perhaps work with on the way from Honduras into Belize as it passes over the Caribbean again. But the ceiling for intensity should remain fairly low, as it will quickly move back over land in Belize and the Yucatan. Its time over land there should essentially kill it off before it gets absorbed into a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Beyond Central America, no direct impacts are expected in the U.S. There is some chance that as Sara is absorbed into next week’s cold front it could help enhance rainfall or introduce a severe weather risk to Florida, Georgia, or the Carolinas. But that should be all.

Never say never, of course, but beyond Sara, we think that’s probably it for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. We’ll have more to come on Sara this weekend.