Northeast Gulf disturbance will probably be mostly a rainmaker

In brief: We take a look at the northeast Gulf disturbance that may try to develop this weekend, but regardless it will be a rainmaker for the Gulf Coast and Florida. We also look at the latest on the hurricane satellite and proposed NOAA budget debacles.

Welcome to July. We’ve all survived month 1 of hurricane season. Only 5 months to go.

Northeast Gulf disturbance risk

The NHC has nudged up the odds of development to 30 percent today for the projected disturbance along a dying cold front in the northeast Gulf or southwest Atlantic.

30% odds of development between the northeast Gulf and southwest Atlantic this weekend. (NOAA/NHC)

The only meaningful change I’ve seen in guidance today has been to basically shift the risk a little more to the Atlantic side. In fact, it almost looks like we get two disturbances out this mess next week, one that comes west or southwest and another that drifts around Florida and into the Atlantic. In fact, if you watch the European operational model loop below, showing “spin” (or vorticity) at about 10,000 feet above our heads, you can see how a chunk of the disturbance actually breaks off and drifts west, while the primary disturbance slides (or meanders) to the east.

European model 700 mb vorticity view from last night showing the main disturbance off Florida, with a secondary “piece” drifting west across the Gulf. (Tropical Tidbits)

The westward, weaker one will probably struggle because a.) it’s too close to land and b.) the air in the western Gulf isn’t exactly expected to be loaded with moisture as high pressure sits over the western two-thirds of Texas.

(Tropical Tidbits)

The easternmost disturbance is probably what I’d focus on for development chances, but even with that one, they don’t exactly look super bothersome. Most of the European ensemble members don’t develop this in any appreciable fashion. The ICON and European AIFS AI model, last year’s big breakouts don’t do much with the Atlantic system.

(Weathernerds.org)

Bottom line: 30 percent seems like a fine place to be right now. Any potential development probably has a low ceiling, with the highest odds of development shifting more into the Atlantic today. Still, because it’s the Gulf and it’s hurricane season, we’ll continue to monitor things.

One thing is for sure: Heavy rain is likely in Florida. While the heaviest and most persistent rains will be confined to the Gulf Coast of Florida, where upwards of 4 to 7 inches is possible, the rest of the state will see a bit of a pickup in rain chances as well. Gradually, flooding could become part of the issues here as we head into next week.

Rainfall forecast for the next week. (Pivotal Weather)

Aside from this one, there are no other Atlantic tropical concerns.

Pacific Hurricane Flossie

A quick note on Hurricane Flossie in the Pacific. Fringe impacts along the west coast of Mexico should be gradually winding down into tonight as Flossie pulls northwest and eventually away from the coast.

(NOAA/NHC)

Flossie is now expected to become a major hurricane as it pulls away before falling apart well off the coast of Baja late this week.

Satellites and budgets

Semi-good news, and very, very bad news today. The good news is that the satellite sounder we’ve been discussing since last week, a key cog in the hurricane observations and forecasting process was granted a whole additional month of service by the DoD, letting it go until August 1st. Hopefully we can get this extended to November 1st, but we’ll see.

Secondly, and in much, much worse news, the official NOAA budget request was sent over to Congress yesterday. Because I don’t want to be accused of being biased, all I will say here are two or three things.

First, all you need to read about this topic has already been written. Alan Gerard tackled it last night in eloquent, nuanced fashion. Michael Lowry discussed the hurricane angle more specifically this morning.

Second, here’s the deal. American has been the undisputed global leader in weather research in recent decades because of the investments we have made in research and development. We have a major research base that produces tools that forecasters (like me!) can use when rubber meets the road. These tools save lives and protect property and make us an otherwise safer, more informed nation. We don’t often get surprised by weather like we did 50 to 100 years ago or more. This budget being sent to Congress is a disrespectful slap in the face to all those efforts and will allow America to abdicate the role of dominance in this space to another nation (more than likely China). It makes us less safe, less informed, and it will set meteorological and climate (not just climate change) research back years or more. The only logical reason one would propose this budget is if they had an agenda that wants to end American dominance in this space or wants to willfully make Americans less safe and informed. Full stop.

If you’re a deficit hawk and want to cut spending, this bill does absolutely nothing to tangibly change the federal deficit at a cost far greater than any savings could ever be. It is almost shockingly non-sensical. While this is strong language and this may sound like a politically biased or motivated take, it isn’t. For the life of me, I cannot understand who thought this was a good plan to propose and why they’d propose it at all. Nothing about it is America first, makes America great, or helps Americans rich or poor. It is a universally disastrous proposal, and we can only hope that Congress course corrects this quickly.

With Barry out of the way, we look at the next candidate for development this coming weekend

In brief: Barry has dissipated. Next, we’ll watch the northeast Gulf or southwest Atlantic for development by this weekend, though there’s only modest support for something formal at this time. Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Flossie is likely to become another Pacific hurricane tonight, with heavy rain and tropical storm conditions for parts of the Mexico coast.

Like Tropical Storm Andrea earlier in the month, Tropical Storm Barry held that title for a full 12 hours yesterday. Two names down covering 24 total hours? We could get used to this. Anyway, now we move onto the next development chance.

Gulf or Atlantic? Who’s next?

Over the next several days, we’re going to see repeated rounds of thunderstorms near the Florida Panhandle or just off the First Coast in northeast Florida. By the time we get to Thursday or Friday, a cool front is going to drop into the area and basically stall out, or “wash” out nearby, a typical feature a couple times per summer.

Surface map forecast shows an approaching cool front and weak low pressure approaching Florida from the north. (NOAA WPC)

With these festering thunderstorms and an approaching front, it may be just the shot in the arm this area needs to begin to try to organize. The biggest questions right now revolve around where exactly this happens and what sort of environment it will have to organize in. We know that there will probably be some sort of disturbance that consolidates between the northeast Gulf or southwest Atlantic this weekend.

(Tropical Tidbits)

Steering currents this weekend and early next week look fairly weak, so whatever does form could scoot out into the Atlantic slowly, or drift west southwest through the Gulf. Before anyone panics over this, I think there are a couple things we can say. Systems trying to develop this close to land tend to struggle. Also, there will be a fair bit of dry air around the Gulf Coast early next week that should cause this to struggle a bit as well. Another occasional outcome is that sometimes these disturbances split up some instead of consolidating, and a piece of it would go west and another east.

In terms of model support, reliable modeling tends to be subdued in terms of how this develops, with one or two stronger outliers out of 100 or so ensemble members.

So sitting here on Monday, all we can really do is just watch the evolution of this on modeling. A couple things can be said. There should be a disturbance. There’s not much support for significant development, and there is modest support for sloppy development. One thing there is high confidence in is that the Gulf Coast of Florida is going to get whacked by heavy rainfall.

7-day rainfall totals through next Monday morning. (NOAA WPC)

The current NWS forecast shows upwards of 10 to 15 inches of rain or more possible just along the coast of the Big Bend and in the open Gulf. There will likely be some street flooding issues at times along the west coast and Panhandle coast of Florida. Heavy rain may also extend back west to Mobile and coastal Mississippi. This will be the biggest impact concern through early next week. More to come.

Elsewhere

Tropical Storm Flossie in the Pacific is going to become a hurricane by tonight in all likelihood. It will pass along and off the coast of Mexico, bringing heavy rain to the coast. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are posted there.

(NOAA NHC)

Flossie will significantly weaken as it approaches Baja and enters much colder water. Minimal impacts are expected there, and Flossie’s remnants may get directed out into the open Pacific next week.

Additional development is possible in the Eastern Pacific behind Flossie.

Tropical Storm Barry will soon move inland in Mexico, while the northeast Gulf gets an area to watch next week

In brief: Tropical Storm Barry is a disorganized mess that will be inland over Mexico later today as a heavy rain producer. Another area to watch has now been formally identified in the NE Gulf or SW Atlantic. Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to become a hurricane in the Pacific. And we have some new information on the loss of critical satellite data today, which is important to include in our understanding of what’s happening.

Tropical Storm Barry

This post from hurricane researcher Andy Hazelton about sums up newly formed Tropical Storm Barry.

Barry is one of those “tropical storm in name only” systems. It’s about as disorganized a storm as we’ve seen lately.

Tropical Storm Barry sits somewhere underneath the thunderstorms off Mexico. (Weathernerds.org)

Based on observations of wind direction and speed from an Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance in the system this morning, Barry got the upgrade. So it’s not like they’re just making this up out of thin air. But I think it’s safe to say than 100 years ago, it would be unlikely that this storm would have gotten a name.

(NOAA NHC)

Whatever the case, Barry will scoot inland tonight. We’ll see if both Andrea and Barry combined can add up to 24 hours of cumulative tropical storm intensity for the season. Heavy rain is expected in Mexico from Barry with flooding possible.

Barry’s main impact will be locally flooding rains and mudslide risk for parts of Mexico, particularly in southern Tamaulipas. (NOAA WPC)

Otherwise, Barry should be fairly efficiently wiped out once over land.

Northeast Gulf of Mexico or Southwest Atlantic

Models continue to hint at an area of disturbed weather emanating from a decaying cold front somewhere between the northeast Gulf and southeast Atlantic later this coming week.

About a 20% chance of development currently exists between the northeast Gulf and southwest Atlantic later this week or weekend. (NOAA NHC)

Models are not exactly eagerly advertising a system here, so 20 percent odds of development seem more than reasonable at the moment. That said, there has been a consistency over several days now that suggests some sort of system could develop in that area over the July 4th weekend. In most cases, ensemble agreement is modest at best, intensity looks modest at best, and there is still more support for nothing formal than something even at this point.

European AI modeling (the AIFS) has been showing at least some signal for a weak low in the vicinity of north Florida for several days now. (Tropical Tidbits)

After last season’s successes, we’ve taken to integrating some of the AI forecast models more into identifying some of these possible risks in the medium-term, and in this case the European AIFS model seems to have modest support for a somewhat disorganized system near northern Florida. Other AI models are similar. The ICON (which also performed well in 2024) is a little more all over the place, but it also shows development risks in that same general area.

Bottom line: Something could develop, but right now the ceiling seems fairly low. We’ll continue to monitor through the week as models should hopefully latch onto expectations more.

Pacific Tropical Storm Flossie

In the Eastern Pacific, the storm we had mentioned as likely yesterday is now Tropical Storm Flossie today.

Tropical Storm Flossie is likely to become a hurricane as it moves up along and off the coast of Mexico, eventually dissipating near Baja. (NOAA NHC)

Flossie should pass far enough off the Mexican coast to avoid most hurricane impacts onshore. That said, a tropical storm watch is posted along a good chunk of the coast. And heavy rain is certainly a concern between Guerrero and Jalisco, where upwards of 10 inches (250 mm) may fall locally.

Flossie will be a big rain producer for the coast of Mexico as it passes offshore. (NOAA WPC)

Behind Flossie there is another system that may develop well offshore of Mexico later this week. Busy busy continues!

Update on SSMIS data

Back on Friday I discussed the news about the DoD satellite data that was about to be abruptly on Monday. That is still happening, but the reality of why it is may be a bit more nuanced than just data being cut off. I just want to be clear that when we live in a questionable information environment, this is what tends to happen (and I even said it on Friday that something gets declared, there’s outrage, and then it’s pulled back). The transparency we’ve gotten from elected officials has been on the decline for years and certainly seems to be at its low right now. So in that “vacuum,” we can only really speculate. And while we all have our own opinions on the current state of affairs, it’s of utmost importance to be clear about what’s going on.

Anyway, a LinkedIN post from Jordan Gerth (you should not need a LinkedIN account to view this), who is a satellite expert that I know personally and have very high esteem for suggests that, while this is certainly a suboptimal decision, it is well within the realm of what was expected at some point. It’s just unfortunate that it’s hitting when it is and with such little advance notice. This is an important perspective to include in this story, and I encourage you to read his brief comments. It surely does not take away from the true fact that the overall weather infrastructure of the country has been degraded in the last 6 months, but with this particular decision, the blame does not fall at the feet of anyone in particular. It still creates a very big problem we need to manage this year and possibly beyond until we can get more instrumentation into space.

Could we sneak in the “B” storm this weekend? Probably not but it’ll be close

In brief: Invest 91L in the Bay of Campeche may develop into a depression, but it probably won’t get much farther than that. Invest 95E in the Pacific is likely to become the next tropical storm or hurricane there tracking up and off the coast of Mexico. Both will bring heavy rain to either coast of Mexico. Plus, we have the latest on the loss of microwave satellite imagery.

Invest 91L

We have our second “invest” of the season. Just to refresh people’s memories, “invests” are just when meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center tag areas of investigation. It’s mostly meant so we can start running some tropical models on a particular area. It doesn’t mean a storm will or won’t develop. It’s just a nice way to classify these things in the pre-storm phase.

Anyway, Invest 91L got tagged late yesterday, and today it’s emerging as expected into the Bay of Campeche.

Invest 91L is dealing with some issues with thunderstorm development today. (Weathernerds.org)

Truthfully, it looked better yesterday, but after traversing the Yucatan, it should not be too surprising to see it struggling a bit. It’s also not as if wind shear is zero here either. There’s a fair bit of it still, which could limit its chances of becoming a depression or named storm. This is a case where the impacts are a lot clearer than the technical definition of the thing.

Indeed, those impacts will include some rough seas in the western Gulf, as well as heavy rainfall. Deep tropical moisture is going to get yanked north and west as 91L moves inland over Mexico tomorrow night and Monday.

Tropical moisture will boost locally heavy rain and flooding chances from Texas into Mexico. (Pivotal Weather)

Rainfall is forecast to add up to 4 to 8 inches (100-200 mm) in parts of Mexico, with lower amounts in Texas over the next 5 days. That said, even up in Texas, there will almost certainly be locally heavier rainfall totals that show up, especially from Matagorda Bay south through Corpus and Brownsville.

Rain totals of 100-200 mm expected over the next 5 days in Mexico. (Pivotal Weather)

So the main concern from Invest 91L will clearly be heavy rain and flooding potential, particularly in Mexico. High pressure should build in later this week behind 91L to dry things out a bit.

Invest 95E a west coast of Mexico concern

Meanwhile, in the Pacific, we have Invest 95E, which will be a rather interesting system for Mexico’s west coast. It should take a track up along the coast but offshore. However, this will likely expose much of the coast from Zihuatanejo north to Baja to tropical impacts as the system develops. And some modeling is actually rather robust with the intensity forecast of 95E.

Google Weather Lab’s screenshot of their various AI model and European ensemble forecast positions of Invest 95E valid on Monday afternoon. (Google)

It should be far enough offshore to keep the worst impacts out at sea, but there are certainly a handful of model solutions that bring this close enough to the coast to produce consequential impacts. You can see from the rainfall map above under the section about Invest 91L that even the west coast of Mexico will see substantial rain over the next 5 days as a result. By the time this does reach Baja and Cabo, it should be weakening under the influence of much colder water. So hurricane impacts are not expected that far north, but locally heavy rain will be a concern. Some of that remnant moisture could get pulled into the Desert Southwest by about next weekend and help enhance monsoon thunderstorms a bit.

Elsewhere

Nothing new to report today elsewhere, including next weekend’s potential in the northeast Gulf or southwest Atlantic, which looks no scarier or likelier today.

Regarding yesterday’s post about the cuts to microwave satellite imagery, which sparked some spirited comments, please keep in mind that nothing about the post was politically motivated or biased. The actual fact of the matter is that we are living in a new reality that did not exist a year ago in the weather community (wide NWS cuts, wide reduction in weather balloon launches, budget requests to eliminate departments that serve the broader weather community, and more), and it’s incumbent on us to make sure people are aware of what is happening based on the facts, which we laid out yesterday.

Michael Lowry has an update in his post.

Please also read Alan Gerard’s post on Balanced Weather for another smart take on things.