Matt Lanza

Tropical disturbances likely to bring significant rain to Mexico and possibly far south Texas later this week

In brief: A developing storm in the Eastern Pacific may combine with an unlikely to develop disturbance in the Bay of Campeche to deliver a significant rainfall to Mexico or parts of far South Texas later this week. Otherwise, the tropics appear quiet.

We do not expect any tropical development in the Atlantic this week. But there is still a disturbance to discuss in the Bay of Campeche later this week, as well as continued Pacific activity.

Bay of Campeche disturbance

While we do not expect any organized development in the Gulf or Caribbean this week, a disturbance we’ve been discussing for about 7 to 10 days now is going to arrive in the Bay of Campeche around midweek. Because of how close it is to the coast and the steering currents aloft, it should quickly move ashore before it has any time to develop.

The weather is busy along the coasts of Central America and Mexico, but there is no organization to any of these disturbances. (Weathernerds.org)

The overall upper pattern once it gets inland, however, will feature a slowing system, as well as assistance from what should become Tropical Storm or Hurricane Erick (currently Invest 94E) in the Pacific. With Erick coming ashore likely in Oaxaca or Guerrero, and the Bay of Campeche disturbance coming ashore between Tampico and Veracruz, we are likely to see a substantial amount of moisture plow into that part of Mexico.

4 to 8 inches of rain is expected over the next week in portions of the Mexican Gulf Coast, as well as in southern Mexico near Oaxaca. (StormVista)

Models are currently hinting that 4 to 8 inches (100-200 mm) could fall in eastern Mexico from this scenario (and in southern Mexico). It is possible that some of that moisture makes it as far north as the Rio Grande Valley, which could also lead to heavy rainfall in parts of South Texas. We’ll keep tabs on this through the week to see how the rainfall forecast evolves across Mexico and Texas.

Eastern Pacific

Invest 94E in the eastern Pacific, as noted above, is likely to become a tropical storm or (perhaps) hurricane named Erick this week. The ultimate destination is probably somewhere in Oaxaca or Guerrero in southern Mexico. Models have been somewhat polarizing on how strong this one gets, but in general,

Invest 94E in the Pacific is likely to come ashore somewhere between Oaxaca and Guerrero later this week, with a rather wide spread in potential track outcomes. (Tomer Burg)

Right now the disturbance sits off the Mexican coast, rather disorganized. But over the next 24 to 48 hours, we should see 94E slowly get together. From there it should track northwest toward the coast of southern Mexico, arriving by Thursday. There’s a pretty wide berth of options with this one as you can see above. While the track density seems to point it toward Playa Zipolite or Puerto Escondido, I would not focus too much on the direct track of this one, as the moisture from it is likely to cause widespread flooding issues in Mexico later this week.

Looking ahead

The somewhat favorable pattern that established over Central America and has helped fuel a lot of the Pacific activity this month looks to break down over the next week or two. We may start to see a few tropical waves emerge off Africa with a little more robustness before June is out, but I don’t currently believe the pattern looks especially favorable for any meaningful tropical development in the Atlantic over the next 2 weeks. We’ll see if that changes at all.

Status quo continues as Atlantic activity remains unlikely for a bit

In brief: The Atlantic remains quiet, so today we look at recent pre-July activity and assess the odds of a weak disturbance forming next week in the southwest Gulf.

Quick note: Colorado State updated their seasonal hurricane outlook with no changes in expectations today. You can see the full update here.

Would anyone care to hazard a guess as to the last time we got to the end of June with no tropical storms having formed in the Atlantic? Anyone? No? Okay.

2014.

Suffice to say, the May-June storm story has been one of busy-ness the last several years, indeed the last decade. At least in terms of named storms happening.

All pre-July storms since 2014, with Hurricane Beryl sticking out like a sore thumb across the Caribbean. (NOAA)

Other than Beryl last year, most Atlantic systems this time of year are weaker. Beryl was an exceptional case that tapped into a favorable atmosphere and rocket fuel waters. In general, most of these early season outcomes are sloppier, more rain and flooding than wind and surge, and mostly infrequent. Some of the cases in recent years were borderline storms at best. Some may have been missed in the pre-satellite era. So, despite the increases in activity in recent years, it may just be that we’re seeing more of the real risk than we had previously presumed.

Whatever the case, we’ve got about 19 days left in the month. We have weather model data that covers about 14 to 15 of those, and no reliable modeling is showing any serious threat at this time. Maybe this will be the year that breaks the 11-year streak.

One area to watch next week, I guess

There is one very, very low probability candidate for development, and that remains next week in the western half of the Bay of Campeche. The window for anything to develop looks narrow; the proximity to land is a problem. But we do see at least some hints of a disturbance there.

A disturbance pinwheeling around some Pacific activity may find itself in the SW Gulf trying to develop. But it will probably run out of time and come ashore before it’s able to do so. (Tropical Tidbits)

The Pacific remains busy with another storm or two possible there over the next week. Around midweek next week, there have been fairly consistent hints in model guidance that a disturbance would sort of pinwheel out of the southwest Caribbean into the southwest Gulf of Mexico or Bay of Campeche and come ashore in Mexico around next Wednesday or Thursday. Realistically, this is almost certainly going to run out of time over water before it has a chance to develop, but the odds are slightly greater than zero.

High pressure expanding from Florida across the Gulf will probably help direct any disturbances in the southwest Gulf quickly ashore into Mexico. (Tropical Tidbits)

It does appear that high pressure building west across the Gulf (seen in the expanding reddish colors above) will push this disturbance quickly inland in Mexico and probably keep the moisture out of Texas as well.

In summary: There’s almost certainly nothing to worry about here.

And aside from that, the Atlantic is quieter than the bats of the Colorado Rockies.

Pacific padding stats, while the Atlantic should continue calm this week

In brief: The Eastern Pacific is off to the races with 2 storms and a third possible by the weekend. None are serious land threats. The Atlantic is quiet this week but may have a window for weak development next week. And Texas is going to see the rains move in this week too.

Barbara and Cosme will dance off in the Pacific before weakening. Another disturbance will trail them for later this week. (Tomer Burg)

Pacific is up and running

We’re up to named storm number three in the Eastern Pacific after Barbara and Cosme formed this weekend. Neither will be a real threat to land, though Barbara is producing some locally heavy rain on the Mexico coast, particularly in Guerrero. But Barbara could become a hurricane on the way out into the open Pacific. It may also absorb Cosme. Trailing these two is another disturbance to watch late this week. While this one should also generally follow Barbara and Cosme out to sea, it’s still worth watching for coastal Mexico between Jalisco and Oaxaca.

Atlantic stays dormant a bit longer

Meanwhile, the Atlantic will remain on the quiet side this week. No tropical development is expected before the weekend.

I do think we have our first legitimate sign of possible development showing up, however. Emphasis on possible. The window is next week. The GFS, of course, continues to show something. More reliable model guidance is more mixed. The ICON, European, and Euro AI modeling all show hints of something in the Bay of Campeche around next Wednesday or Thursday. Ensemble guidance is fairly muted. All this to say, that it seems whatever may have a chance to develop next week has a relatively low ceiling at this point (think invest or depression more than a named storm).

European model guidance midweek next week shows a potential weak disturbance in the Bay of Campeche. (Tropical Tidbits)

Bottom line: I would say that overall, there is a greater chance that nothing organizes than something does. And if something does, the main concern would be heavy rain and flooding, most likely in Mexico. I don’t want to diminish the flooding chances, but I also don’t want people to think a hurricane is forming in the Gulf next week, as that’s not a realistic outcome at this time. Plenty of time to consume model runs this week and see if anything changes.

Major pattern change in Texas

One other item to note is that after a pretty hot start to June (a top 10 hottest in Houston, San Antonio, and Austin), the rains return this week. In fact, some locally heavy rain is likely across interior Texas, a place that could certainly use some additional rainfall.

Very heavy rain is expected at times this week in parts of Hill Country, Central Texas, and North Texas. Showers and thunderstorms will also be in the forecast elsewhere. (Pivotal Weather)

The heaviest, most concentrated rains this week look to occur in the DFW and Waco areas, as well as in the northern half of Hill Country. Parts of the Permian south-central Texas, and the Houston area will also see periods of rain and thunderstorms. Wednesday and Thursday may see the heaviest rainfall. This should keep heat in check in Texas this week as well.

Tropical development chances are specifically in the Pacific, while dust and Canadian wildfire smoke are Eastern features

In brief: The Pacific looks to get a series of lower-end tropical systems, while the Atlantic remains dusty and quiet for the time being. We also examine Canadian wildfires today.

Pacific buzzing — with limits

It’s busy times in the Pacific over the next week, as there are three areas earmarked by the National Hurricane Center today for possible development.

A Pacific that has three opportunities for tropical development over the next several days. (NOAA NHC)

None of these systems appear to be a threat to the Mexico coast at this time. Nor do any of them look to get especially strong. The 20 percent area has a wee bit of support to perhaps get a little stronger, particularly via the ICON model. But I would classify that risk as “low to very low” at this time. The next two names in the Pacific are Barbara and Cosme.

Quiet Atlantic will continue

The Atlantic remains out of play for now. We continue to see GFS model runs showing Gulf activity, but more likely than not it’s just whiffing on what may end up in the Pacific later next week.

At present, just dusty.

So much dust. Yellow, orange, red indicate presence of dust across the Atlantic and Gulf. (University of Wisconsin)

There’s one batch of dust impacting Florida and much of the Gulf Coast this weekend. A second batch of dust is thick out in the eastern Atlantic. That will thin out some as it comes west, but it may reach the Caribbean next week and the Gulf late next week. Although we don’t usually look far out in the Atlantic for development in June (Beryl last year being a glaring exception), at the least, conditions look poor for any development over the next 7 to 10 days.

Maybe around the 18th through the 20th we’ll get to monitor something sloppy in the Caribbean or near the Yucatan or coast of Mexico. AI modeling hints that this could be the case, but it’s not showing anything notable or troublesome at this time.

Canadian blazes adding to the haze

In a very glaring example of what happens in one place directly impacts another, for the third straight summer, Canadian wildfire smoke is a feature not a bug.

Wildfire smoke will advance into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest this weekend, while pockets of smoke are spread out all over the eastern U.S., almost all of which is coming from Canadian Wildfires (Pivotal Weather)

Canada is a mess right now, with numerous wildfires burning in the Prairie provinces and portions of western Ontario and northeast British Columbia.

Hot spots showing where wildfires are currently ongoing in Canada (Natural Resources Canada)

Conditions in Canada are exacerbated by long-term drought, below normal snow, and long-term fires. Some of the fires in Canada are actually relics of fires started in 2023! They basically burn or smolder as “zombie” fires in the winter season and then flare up again as summer arrives. Canadian winters have had their harsh periods, as they normally do. But punches of cold in short bursts can’t make up for the overwhelming warmth we’ve seen at times in the winter months recently in Canada. The winters of 2023-24 and 2024-25 have averaged warmer than normal in western Canada.

The last two winters in Canada (and the U.S.) have been very mild. (NOAA)

Canadian wildfires themselves aren’t abnormal, and neither are warm winters. But the frequency and intensity of wildfire and warmer winters tends to be increasing as the climate changes. You have to be careful about saying that this is “the new normal,” but you can safely assume there will be more years and scenarios like this coming in the future.

Wildfire risk map in Canada today shows the highest level of risk in BC, the Prairie provinces, and western Ontario, and this is expected to continue. (Natural Resources Canada)

In the short-term, the risk for wildfire growth or new wildfire starts is high and expected to remain quite high over the next 7 to 10 days. And so it goes.