Matt Lanza

Milton on the upswing and will require preparing for the worst and hoping for the best on Florida’s west coast

Headlines

  • Milton is now a hurricane, and it is forecast to become a powerful category 4 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.
  • It continues to look likely to track into the west coast of Florida on Wednesday as a major hurricane, delivering wind, rain, and potentially catastrophic storm surge to Florida’s west coast.
  • Impacts will be significant regardless of Milton’s specific intensity at landfall.
  • Milton will also deliver some impacts to the north coast of the Yucatan tomorrow.
4 PM track of Milton shows a landfall somewhere between Fort Myers and Steinhatchee on Wednesday. (NOAA NHC)

Hurricane Milton is strengthening this evening, now with winds of 85 mph. It is expected to become a category 4 hurricane now with 145 mph maximum sustained winds by Tuesday afternoon. It will likely peak in intensity and come ashore into Florida in a somewhat less intense state, however a no less dangerous one.

First point I want to absolutely stress: Given that this storm is going to be extraordinarily precarious for the Tampa Bay area, if you live in an evacuation zone on the Bay and you are told to go and you have the means and ability…go. If you do not, follow up with local officials on what you need to be doing. This is the storm where you expect the worst and hope for the best. Tampa’s had a generally favorable hurricane history over the last 100 years, but at some point that streak is going to end. Unfortunately, you are not afforded the luxury of time with this one. A track north of Tampa Bay has dramatically different impacts in terms of surge compared to a storm tracking south of the bay. As local WFLA meteorologist Jeff Beradelli stressed yesterday, you run from the water and hide from the wind. You don’t need to travel hundreds of miles to escape the surge threat; just a few. But if you are told to go, you should go out of an abundance of caution. We will debate the specifics of the forecast, but I want to remind you that notable past storms such as Katrina, Rita, Ike, and Opal were all storms that were weakening at landfall and that all did tremendous surge damage. That’s the fear in Tampa Bay.

Potential inundation map around Tampa Bay based on a reasonable worst case scenario with the current forecast. (NOAA NHC)

Current model forecasts are still spread out to a point where we believe there are almost equal chances that this tracks just north or to the south of Tampa Bay. In other words, we are still waiting on some clarity with track, hence why we are advising people to evacuate if told to do so.

Afternoon model guidance on Milton shows good agreement on the general track with a significant spread in terms of how this will impact specific west coast communities in Florida.

We are obviously heavily focused on Tampa because that’s the densest and most populated area in this region. But let’s talk briefly about a few other places.

Big Bend & Nature Coast: Areas that were hardest hit by Helene last month will likely see impacts from Milton but hopefully mainly via rain and some gusty winds. With the storm currently likely to track to the south and an offshore wind in place, Big Bend communities should be spared additional surge problems. But some added vulnerability from Helene may lead to a few issues. Follow the advice of local authorities.

Sarasota & Bradenton: Wind and surge will be major concerns here. Unless this does follow extreme southern model forecasts and comes in near Fort Myers, there will likely be a substantial surge in these areas. While there will be strong, potentially major hurricane force winds here, the strongest winds may end up north of this area. Much like Tampa, however, it would be wise to follow any evacuation orders given and you should take this as seriously as Tampa.

Fort Myers & Naples: Obviously this region is vulnerable and on edge for any storm impacts given Ian’s hit a couple years ago. You’ll want to watch how close this gets to you in terms of how much wind to expect (the closer, the worse). Surge should be considerable no matter the track at this point, and you should be following the advice of local officials who should know the risks of surge post-Ian. Really want to make sure folks here take this seriously.

Orlando: We’ve gotten a lot of questions about the Orlando area and people with vacations. In Orlando, the impacts from Milton will involve wind and rain and the potential for severe weather. There will be areas of flooding in and around Central Florida, especially given precursor rounds of rain. So obviously watch for that. While the wind will probably be nasty at times and power outages will be a good possibility, most hotels should have plans in place to keep guests safe in storms like this. One other risk in interior Florida will be that of tornadoes or severe storms as Milton blows through.

Daytona through Jacksonville: This area will see very heavy rain, possibly back inland to Gainesville as well. In addition to tropical storm or hurricane conditions as Milton crosses the area, flooding and isolated tornadoes will be possible. There will probably be some minor storm surge as well on the east coast of Florida.

In terms of rainfall for Florida, between predecessor rains and Milton, we are looking at 5 to 10 inches of additional rainfall along and north of I-4 in Florida.

Significant rainfall along and north of I-4 will cause areas of flooding from Tampa to Orlando to Jacksonville. Additional flooding possible elsewhere in South Florida too. (Pivotal Weather)

So the message I want to close with for now is this: This is a serious, serious threat to Florida and it should be taken seriously. Don’t let any conversation among meteorologists or others about what intensity Milton will be at landfall dictate your decision-making. Follow the advice of local officials, check on friends, family, and neighbors. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. We’ll post again in the morning.

Florida will be threatened by Tropical Depression 14, likely to become Hurricane Milton

Headlines

  • Tropical Depression 14 has formed this morning in the western Gulf of Mexico.
  • It is expected to rapidly intensify late this weekend or early next week into a borderline major hurricane.
  • That hurricane will threaten the west coast of Florida somewhere between the Big Bend and southwest Florida.
  • Impacts from the storm will be widespread across Florida, with heavy rain and flooding over a wide area, and storm surge risk depending on the exact track of the storm.
  • Folks across Florida should begin preparing now for a hurricane impact by later Tuesday or Wednesday.

Just a quick post this morning to lay the landscape out on a number of changes in the last 36 hours. We warned yesterday that odds of development had been increasing in such a way that it was becoming more likely that we’d see something, but even we did not anticipate how quickly things would escalate.

First, we now have Tropical Depression 14 in the western Gulf.

Tropical Depression 14 formed from a disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico today. (Weathernerds.org)

This was not expected to happen so quickly, but that has been the case here today. The National Hurricane Center’s first forecast for to-be Milton is for 110 mph winds and a track to the west coast of Florida.

The first bid on TD 14/future Milton shows a track into the west coast of Florida as a borderline major hurricane. (NOAA NHC)

First observation here: Do not focus on the specific track. Focus on the cone. We’ve seen a few instances of west coast of Florida landfalls in recent years, but historically almost none have come from the area where TD 14 is currently. So we’re in a unique scenario here. The geography of Florida is such that a storm into the west coast from this direction will have the worst storm surge on the south side of the storm as it makes landfall. But the worst wind would likely be on the north side. You’re looking at a multi-hazard scenario here. You’re also looking at an extremely vulnerable coastline just a couple weeks removed from Helene. People in Tampa are still cleaning up from surge damage, and now this is on the horizon. People in the Big Bend are still trying to begin recovery as well. While this will likely come ashore south and east of where Helene hit, there will be overlap of significant impacts between the two storms if this continues. Start preparing right now. Maybe this is a fluke or does something we don’t currently expect, but this storm will have an environment favorable for rapid intensification in the Gulf.

Tropical models are quite varied in terms of intensity, but the message we are seeing from the better performing models this season favors the upper half of the intensity curves here, close to where the NHC is forecasting right now. (Tropical Tidbits)

In addition to the potential for wind, surge, and marine hazards, the rainfall situation in Florida is quite messy now.

The rainfall forecast for Florida shows a widespread 5 to 10 inches likely, and higher amounts will be possible. Risks of heavy rain have increased north of I-4 as well now, including up through the Jacksonville area. (Pivotal Weather)

I think the Peninsula is now looking at a widespread 5 to 10 inches. The heaviest rain is shifting around a bit now with organized tropical development entering the picture. While, broadly, the heaviest rain will be south of I-4, there will likely be a corridor of heavy rain near or north of I-4 as well, possibly up into the Jacksonville area. Basically, the entire peninsula needs to prepare for heavy rain and flooding potential. Coastal areas need to prepare for more than that.

I’m going to stop there for now. It’s early in the game, relatively, and I don’t want to speculate too much on specific impacts, but the message is pretty clear today: Start preparing now in Florida for a potential major hurricane hit on the west coast. Eric is going to have another update late this afternoon or evening with the latest, and we’ll be with you into Sunday as well.

Gulf tropical development odds on the increase again with at least a heavy rain event coming to Florida

Headlines

  • Tropical development potential is increasing in the Gulf again, as moisture Sunday-Monday may precede an organized system next week.
  • It’s too soon to say exactly what may occur, but model agreement in something has increased rather significantly since yesterday.
  • Interests in Florida should prepare for heavy rain and flooding in the I-4 corridor and on the coast, and may need to begin to prepare for an eventual tropical system next week. Stay tuned this weekend.
  • Kirk is near or just past peak intensity now and Leslie is on the increase out in the open Atlantic, no threat to land.

Something may emerge from the Gulf sloppiness

We continue to watch with curiosity how exactly the Gulf situation will unfold. What we know for sure: A multi-day rain event is coming for the Florida Peninsula. What we don’t know? Just about everything else. Modeling seems to actually be reinvigorating the potential for some sort of formal development of this system in the Gulf. If we look at satellite today, we can at least see the early underpinnings of it, courtesy of the remnants of Pacific Tropical Depression 11.

A rather robust area of thunderstorms now sits in the Bay of Campeche, courtesy of Pacific TD 11’s remnants. Gradual organization of this system seems increasingly likely over the weekend. (Weathernerds.org)

The system sits just off the coast of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche. Almost all operational models now show at least some organization of this system by Sunday afternoon just northwest of the Yucatan. As it moves east northeast, it continues to develop on most modeling as well. We actually have a majority of Euro ensemble members showing some development by early Tuesday morning.

European ensemble members show likely slow development by Monday night or Tuesday morning in the western Gulf before things get swept east toward Florida. (Weathernerds.org)

Beyond this point, modeling seems to diverge. Some kill it off as just a rainstorm. Others keep it going and developing as a higher end tropical storm into Florida. I think there’s still plenty of uncertainty, but if we were close to writing this off yesterday, we need to take the concept of tropical development seriously today.

Aside from that, the potential for heavy rain and flooding both ahead of and with any tropical development is legitimate in the Florida Peninsula, primarily near or south of I-4. One wave should arrive Sunday into Monday, and then the next would arrive later Tuesday into Wednesday depending on how this evolves. Each wave will bring the potential for heavy rain, with a gradually increasing flood potential for Florida.

An increasing risk of flooding will build next week in Florida with or without tropical development in the Gulf. (NWS Miami)

Rain totals are still around 4 to 8 inches on average, especially on the coast and along the I-4 corridor, but some other inland locations will also have potential for heavy rain and flooding too. This will be a situation to follow closely this weekend in case of any sudden change in development chances.

Kirk flirts with Cat 5, Leslie ramping up

Hurricane Kirk blew up last night into a category 4 storm, and at times some of the remote sensing data we use to estimate intensity of storms that far from land indicated it was on the precipice of category 5 intensity. It still looks textbook today, again no threat to land thankfully.

Hurricane Kirk is straight outta the textbooks. (Colorado State CIRA)

Kirk has maximum sustained winds of 140 mph, and a slow weakening trend should begin this weekend. By next week, Kirk will be a distant memory.

Meanwhile, to Kirk’s southeast, Leslie is taking on some strength of its own. Now a 65 mph tropical storm, Leslie is expected to become a hurricane this weekend, possibly close to a major hurricane. It has a few more hurdles than Kirk had, including Kirk itself. But I suspect it’ll be a healthy storm soon.

Leslie is a much smaller storm southeast of Kirk, but it too is expected to chug out to sea as a hurricane next week. (Weathernerds.org)

Beyond these two storms and a potential one in the Gulf, we have nothing else to really speculate on right now.

Gulf tropical development risks remain modest as focus points to a Florida Peninsula rainstorm

Headlines

  • Tropical development in the Gulf remains possible but not entirely likely over the next 5 days or so.
  • Regardless, the combination of a couple disturbances and the remnants of Pacific TD 11 will combine to produce significant moisture tracking toward the Florida Peninsula.
  • Heavy rain and some flooding are possible there, especially at the coast and south of I-4 next week.
  • Hurricane Kirk is nearing category 4 intensity in the open Atlantic, no threat to land.
  • Tropical Storm Leslie will slowly organize and may track a bit farther south and west than Kirk but most likely not threaten land.

Gulf development risks slowly backsliding, but heavy rain chances in Florida increasing

We are down to a 30 percent chance of tropical development in the Gulf today, as we continue to watch for disorganized thunderstorms in the area over the next few days. I still think this area will have a chance to develop next week, and many models show development of low pressure into something akin to a depression by early next week.

Very disorganized and patchy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean and western Gulf of Mexico will continue for a few more days before advancing east toward the Florida Peninsula. (Weathernerds.org)

Today, there’s nothing at all today. We have a cluster of storms south of Cuba and another one in the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf of Mexico. No imminent development is likely from this. Wind shear looks to be a bit much right now, and that may be the biggest limiting factor in any development out of this area. I would say odds of a named storm are quite low from all this, but odds of an invest or depression are moderate still.

What this will do, however, is deliver rain to the Florida Peninsula. Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday look quite wet. Atmospheric moisture is going to load up over Florida, with precipitable water values (or how much available moisture there is) up around the 90th percentile for early October, or around 175 percent of normal. Between the two disturbances noted above, the remnants of Tropical Depression 11 in the Pacific will enter the fray as well.

Precipitable water, or how much moisture is available in the atmosphere will be up around 175 percent of normal early next week in Florida. (Weather Bell)

This translates to a lot of moisture available for heavy rainfall. Not everywhere in Florida will get dumped on. But there will be heavy rain around and if you have vacation plans, all I can say is to keep tabs on the forecast early next week and consider some indoor activities. Current rain totals look to be on the order of 4 to 8 inches through next week, with the highest amounts on the immediate coast and south of I-4. North of there through Jacksonville or Gainesville looks to be a bit less impacted.

The heaviest rains look to be on the immediate coast and south of I-4 next week in Florida, where 4 to 8 inches of rain may fall. (Pivotal Weather)

We’ll keep tabs on this for potential flooding. At this point, we remain fairly unconcerned with any other tropical impacts, other than rip currents which are always a consideration with a disturbance in the Gulf.

Atlantic racking up cyclone intensity

Meanwhile, the open Atlantic is bustling with Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie. Neither storm is a threat to land.

Kirk is a major, category 3 hurricane, heading for cat 4 intensity, while Leslie is expected to trail Kirk as a hurricane of its own. (Tomer Burg)

Kirk is about as classic looking as it gets, albeit with a relatively large eye.

Hurricane Kirk has maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, making it a strong category 3 hurricane, likely headed to mid-end cat 4 intensity. (Tropical Tidbits)

Hurricane Kirk should peak in intensity tomorrow before slowly weakening as it goes north and northeast out to sea. Modeling is in decent agreement that this will avoid the Azores on its way out right now.

Leslie is a little sloppier right now, but it too should intensify into a hurricane eventually this weekend. It will trail Kirk a little farther to the south and west. There is a very, very, very slight chance that Leslie could gain enough longitude to perhaps deliver some fringe impacts to the islands at some point, but that’s unlikely and a long way off. We’ll keep an eye on things.

The good news is that once Kirk and Leslie exit and the Gulf system is out of the picture later next week, I don’t quite know what would be next. There are no model signals of any real strong sort that point to the next system to watch. So perhaps we get a little break. Could it be the final break and the season is over? Maybe, maybe not. But with such warm water still out there, a November storm somewhere would be unsurprising this year.