Matt Lanza

Milton, now a major hurricane remains a very serious threat to Florida

Headlines

  • Milton is now a major hurricane, with further strengthening likely to high-end category 4 or category 5 intensity north of the Yucatan.
  • Milton is expected to bring widespread, significant hurricane conditions to the west coast of Florida on Wednesday.
  • Milton will have a significant storm surge, regardless of its landfall intensity, and west coast communities in the Tampa area and south should expect a Helene-type surge *at a minimum,* with higher surge likely at and south of the exact landfall point of Milton.
  • Heavy rain will overtake most of north Florida Wednesday and flash flooding is likely along and north of I-4 then.
  • Milton should accelerate out to sea after Wednesday night.

As of 7 AM ET, NOAA hurricane hunters discovered that Milton now has 120 mph maximum sustained winds and a pressure of 954 mb. Milton is undergoing rapid intensification in the Gulf and is now a major hurricane.

The 5 AM ET advisory on Milton shows landfall still likely between about Steinhatchee and Fort Myers. (NOAA NHC)

In the immediate term, hurricane conditions are likely on the coast of the Yucatan tonight and tomorrow morning as Milton passes. Warnings are posted from Celestun to Rio Lagartos in Mexico. This does not include Cancun or Cozumel.

There are several things to touch on this morning. We’re going to go over track, intensity, and surge in this post.

Milton’s Track

There are a couple elements to Milton’s track that are important. Milton has a little bit of north to south trajectory being imparted on its motion right now, and that’s why we’re seeing Milton track east-southeast. That component of the direction is expected to fade after today, and Milton will then basically rush off to join up with a trough in the upper atmosphere dropping down the East Coast. As this happens, Milton will turn east and then probably due northeast. While Milton is a rarity in terms of how far west in the Gulf it formed, what it’s doing in terms of track is fairly common behavior of Gulf storms in October.

Still some very wide goalposts in terms of where Milton comes ashore in Florida with numerous models on either side of Tampa Bay and some as far south as Fort Myers. (Tropical Tidbits)

For Florida, the question of track and trajectory is critically important. On one hand, there will be a large, major hurricane approaching the west coast of Florida on Wednesday afternoon. And from that point of view, expect widespread hurricane impacts regardless of track. On the other hand, as we’ve discussed, the exact track is critically important in terms of how storm surge will behave. The worst surge will come in at and south of where Milton comes ashore, so a track into Siesta Key has a drastically different outcome than a track into Clearwater. This isn’t just for Tampa; it’s for the entire heavily populated west coast. So we’ll need to see exactly where that turn to the northeast occurs and how strong Milton actually gets. But as noted yesterday, everyone on Florida’s west coast needs to prepare as if this is coming and follow the advice of local officials.

Milton’s intensity

Now that Milton is already a major hurricane, it seems likely that it will become at least a category 4, with a chance to become a category 5 storm.

Milton is going to traverse an extremely warm, high heat potential portion of the Gulf, including the Loop Current, which should allow it plenty of fuel for intensification. (Alex Boreham/cyclonicwx.com)

We can say that Milton has a reasonable chance to become a high-end 4 or 5 storm because of the heat potential available to it in the Gulf. All else aside, the storm will have some of the highest heat potential in the entire Atlantic, outside the northwest Caribbean available to it for intensification. Most modeling shows the storm peaking in intensity sometime tomorrow and then slowly shaving some of it off as it approaches landfall. Unfortunately, from a surge point of view this matters very little. The surge is baked in and even if the storm weakens substantially, the surge will lag that weakening. If, hypothetically, Milton becomes a cat 5 and makes landfall as a cat 3, it will probably still have surge equivalent to a strong cat 4 at landfall. So we have to assume the surge is going to be very bad regardless. In terms of wind, a storm that weakens will probably also expand in size. So while the peak wind may be lower at landfall, those winds will envelope more of the coast than otherwise, and the expectation should be that much of the west coast of Florida will be experiencing substantial hurricane impacts on Wednesday. Impacts to the east coast and inland Florida will be less severe than the west coast in terms of wind, but those areas will still likely see tropical storm or hurricane winds as well.

A moderate risk of flash flooding (level 3/4) is shown for much of Florida north of I-4 on Wednesday (and for Miami and southeast Florida today) (NOAA WPC)

Flooding will be an issue regardless of Milton’s intensity, and the heaviest rain will fall along and north of Milton’s storm track from central Florida into portions of southeast Georgia.

Milton’s surge

By far the most troubling aspect of Milton will be the surge. Again, the fact that Milton will likely be past peak intensity when it makes landfall will matter very, very little in terms of what sort of storm surge it brings.

The current peak surge forecast for Tampa Bay is at Helene levels to perhaps several feet higher than Helene’s surge. (NOAA NHC)

More critical for surge, as noted above will be where the storm makes landfall. I anticipate that the map above will evolve as the track becomes clearer. At this point, Tampa Bay should expect, at a minimum, a Helene-type surge. If Milton hits north of Tampa Bay, the surge will be several feet higher and possibly more forceful than Helene. Surge will also be notably worse than Helene for areas south of Tampa, including Sarasota, Fort Myers, Naples, etc. Exactly how much worse will depend on track. But surge is probably going to be the most dangerous, concerning element of Milton. That will be what determines evacuation orders. And again, we can’t stress enough that you should heed those warnings and hope for the best.

We’ll have another update following later this afternoon once we digest the 5 PM ET advisory.

Milton on the upswing and will require preparing for the worst and hoping for the best on Florida’s west coast

Headlines

  • Milton is now a hurricane, and it is forecast to become a powerful category 4 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.
  • It continues to look likely to track into the west coast of Florida on Wednesday as a major hurricane, delivering wind, rain, and potentially catastrophic storm surge to Florida’s west coast.
  • Impacts will be significant regardless of Milton’s specific intensity at landfall.
  • Milton will also deliver some impacts to the north coast of the Yucatan tomorrow.
4 PM track of Milton shows a landfall somewhere between Fort Myers and Steinhatchee on Wednesday. (NOAA NHC)

Hurricane Milton is strengthening this evening, now with winds of 85 mph. It is expected to become a category 4 hurricane now with 145 mph maximum sustained winds by Tuesday afternoon. It will likely peak in intensity and come ashore into Florida in a somewhat less intense state, however a no less dangerous one.

First point I want to absolutely stress: Given that this storm is going to be extraordinarily precarious for the Tampa Bay area, if you live in an evacuation zone on the Bay and you are told to go and you have the means and ability…go. If you do not, follow up with local officials on what you need to be doing. This is the storm where you expect the worst and hope for the best. Tampa’s had a generally favorable hurricane history over the last 100 years, but at some point that streak is going to end. Unfortunately, you are not afforded the luxury of time with this one. A track north of Tampa Bay has dramatically different impacts in terms of surge compared to a storm tracking south of the bay. As local WFLA meteorologist Jeff Beradelli stressed yesterday, you run from the water and hide from the wind. You don’t need to travel hundreds of miles to escape the surge threat; just a few. But if you are told to go, you should go out of an abundance of caution. We will debate the specifics of the forecast, but I want to remind you that notable past storms such as Katrina, Rita, Ike, and Opal were all storms that were weakening at landfall and that all did tremendous surge damage. That’s the fear in Tampa Bay.

Potential inundation map around Tampa Bay based on a reasonable worst case scenario with the current forecast. (NOAA NHC)

Current model forecasts are still spread out to a point where we believe there are almost equal chances that this tracks just north or to the south of Tampa Bay. In other words, we are still waiting on some clarity with track, hence why we are advising people to evacuate if told to do so.

Afternoon model guidance on Milton shows good agreement on the general track with a significant spread in terms of how this will impact specific west coast communities in Florida.

We are obviously heavily focused on Tampa because that’s the densest and most populated area in this region. But let’s talk briefly about a few other places.

Big Bend & Nature Coast: Areas that were hardest hit by Helene last month will likely see impacts from Milton but hopefully mainly via rain and some gusty winds. With the storm currently likely to track to the south and an offshore wind in place, Big Bend communities should be spared additional surge problems. But some added vulnerability from Helene may lead to a few issues. Follow the advice of local authorities.

Sarasota & Bradenton: Wind and surge will be major concerns here. Unless this does follow extreme southern model forecasts and comes in near Fort Myers, there will likely be a substantial surge in these areas. While there will be strong, potentially major hurricane force winds here, the strongest winds may end up north of this area. Much like Tampa, however, it would be wise to follow any evacuation orders given and you should take this as seriously as Tampa.

Fort Myers & Naples: Obviously this region is vulnerable and on edge for any storm impacts given Ian’s hit a couple years ago. You’ll want to watch how close this gets to you in terms of how much wind to expect (the closer, the worse). Surge should be considerable no matter the track at this point, and you should be following the advice of local officials who should know the risks of surge post-Ian. Really want to make sure folks here take this seriously.

Orlando: We’ve gotten a lot of questions about the Orlando area and people with vacations. In Orlando, the impacts from Milton will involve wind and rain and the potential for severe weather. There will be areas of flooding in and around Central Florida, especially given precursor rounds of rain. So obviously watch for that. While the wind will probably be nasty at times and power outages will be a good possibility, most hotels should have plans in place to keep guests safe in storms like this. One other risk in interior Florida will be that of tornadoes or severe storms as Milton blows through.

Daytona through Jacksonville: This area will see very heavy rain, possibly back inland to Gainesville as well. In addition to tropical storm or hurricane conditions as Milton crosses the area, flooding and isolated tornadoes will be possible. There will probably be some minor storm surge as well on the east coast of Florida.

In terms of rainfall for Florida, between predecessor rains and Milton, we are looking at 5 to 10 inches of additional rainfall along and north of I-4 in Florida.

Significant rainfall along and north of I-4 will cause areas of flooding from Tampa to Orlando to Jacksonville. Additional flooding possible elsewhere in South Florida too. (Pivotal Weather)

So the message I want to close with for now is this: This is a serious, serious threat to Florida and it should be taken seriously. Don’t let any conversation among meteorologists or others about what intensity Milton will be at landfall dictate your decision-making. Follow the advice of local officials, check on friends, family, and neighbors. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. We’ll post again in the morning.

Florida will be threatened by Tropical Depression 14, likely to become Hurricane Milton

Headlines

  • Tropical Depression 14 has formed this morning in the western Gulf of Mexico.
  • It is expected to rapidly intensify late this weekend or early next week into a borderline major hurricane.
  • That hurricane will threaten the west coast of Florida somewhere between the Big Bend and southwest Florida.
  • Impacts from the storm will be widespread across Florida, with heavy rain and flooding over a wide area, and storm surge risk depending on the exact track of the storm.
  • Folks across Florida should begin preparing now for a hurricane impact by later Tuesday or Wednesday.

Just a quick post this morning to lay the landscape out on a number of changes in the last 36 hours. We warned yesterday that odds of development had been increasing in such a way that it was becoming more likely that we’d see something, but even we did not anticipate how quickly things would escalate.

First, we now have Tropical Depression 14 in the western Gulf.

Tropical Depression 14 formed from a disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico today. (Weathernerds.org)

This was not expected to happen so quickly, but that has been the case here today. The National Hurricane Center’s first forecast for to-be Milton is for 110 mph winds and a track to the west coast of Florida.

The first bid on TD 14/future Milton shows a track into the west coast of Florida as a borderline major hurricane. (NOAA NHC)

First observation here: Do not focus on the specific track. Focus on the cone. We’ve seen a few instances of west coast of Florida landfalls in recent years, but historically almost none have come from the area where TD 14 is currently. So we’re in a unique scenario here. The geography of Florida is such that a storm into the west coast from this direction will have the worst storm surge on the south side of the storm as it makes landfall. But the worst wind would likely be on the north side. You’re looking at a multi-hazard scenario here. You’re also looking at an extremely vulnerable coastline just a couple weeks removed from Helene. People in Tampa are still cleaning up from surge damage, and now this is on the horizon. People in the Big Bend are still trying to begin recovery as well. While this will likely come ashore south and east of where Helene hit, there will be overlap of significant impacts between the two storms if this continues. Start preparing right now. Maybe this is a fluke or does something we don’t currently expect, but this storm will have an environment favorable for rapid intensification in the Gulf.

Tropical models are quite varied in terms of intensity, but the message we are seeing from the better performing models this season favors the upper half of the intensity curves here, close to where the NHC is forecasting right now. (Tropical Tidbits)

In addition to the potential for wind, surge, and marine hazards, the rainfall situation in Florida is quite messy now.

The rainfall forecast for Florida shows a widespread 5 to 10 inches likely, and higher amounts will be possible. Risks of heavy rain have increased north of I-4 as well now, including up through the Jacksonville area. (Pivotal Weather)

I think the Peninsula is now looking at a widespread 5 to 10 inches. The heaviest rain is shifting around a bit now with organized tropical development entering the picture. While, broadly, the heaviest rain will be south of I-4, there will likely be a corridor of heavy rain near or north of I-4 as well, possibly up into the Jacksonville area. Basically, the entire peninsula needs to prepare for heavy rain and flooding potential. Coastal areas need to prepare for more than that.

I’m going to stop there for now. It’s early in the game, relatively, and I don’t want to speculate too much on specific impacts, but the message is pretty clear today: Start preparing now in Florida for a potential major hurricane hit on the west coast. Eric is going to have another update late this afternoon or evening with the latest, and we’ll be with you into Sunday as well.

Gulf tropical development odds on the increase again with at least a heavy rain event coming to Florida

Headlines

  • Tropical development potential is increasing in the Gulf again, as moisture Sunday-Monday may precede an organized system next week.
  • It’s too soon to say exactly what may occur, but model agreement in something has increased rather significantly since yesterday.
  • Interests in Florida should prepare for heavy rain and flooding in the I-4 corridor and on the coast, and may need to begin to prepare for an eventual tropical system next week. Stay tuned this weekend.
  • Kirk is near or just past peak intensity now and Leslie is on the increase out in the open Atlantic, no threat to land.

Something may emerge from the Gulf sloppiness

We continue to watch with curiosity how exactly the Gulf situation will unfold. What we know for sure: A multi-day rain event is coming for the Florida Peninsula. What we don’t know? Just about everything else. Modeling seems to actually be reinvigorating the potential for some sort of formal development of this system in the Gulf. If we look at satellite today, we can at least see the early underpinnings of it, courtesy of the remnants of Pacific Tropical Depression 11.

A rather robust area of thunderstorms now sits in the Bay of Campeche, courtesy of Pacific TD 11’s remnants. Gradual organization of this system seems increasingly likely over the weekend. (Weathernerds.org)

The system sits just off the coast of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche. Almost all operational models now show at least some organization of this system by Sunday afternoon just northwest of the Yucatan. As it moves east northeast, it continues to develop on most modeling as well. We actually have a majority of Euro ensemble members showing some development by early Tuesday morning.

European ensemble members show likely slow development by Monday night or Tuesday morning in the western Gulf before things get swept east toward Florida. (Weathernerds.org)

Beyond this point, modeling seems to diverge. Some kill it off as just a rainstorm. Others keep it going and developing as a higher end tropical storm into Florida. I think there’s still plenty of uncertainty, but if we were close to writing this off yesterday, we need to take the concept of tropical development seriously today.

Aside from that, the potential for heavy rain and flooding both ahead of and with any tropical development is legitimate in the Florida Peninsula, primarily near or south of I-4. One wave should arrive Sunday into Monday, and then the next would arrive later Tuesday into Wednesday depending on how this evolves. Each wave will bring the potential for heavy rain, with a gradually increasing flood potential for Florida.

An increasing risk of flooding will build next week in Florida with or without tropical development in the Gulf. (NWS Miami)

Rain totals are still around 4 to 8 inches on average, especially on the coast and along the I-4 corridor, but some other inland locations will also have potential for heavy rain and flooding too. This will be a situation to follow closely this weekend in case of any sudden change in development chances.

Kirk flirts with Cat 5, Leslie ramping up

Hurricane Kirk blew up last night into a category 4 storm, and at times some of the remote sensing data we use to estimate intensity of storms that far from land indicated it was on the precipice of category 5 intensity. It still looks textbook today, again no threat to land thankfully.

Hurricane Kirk is straight outta the textbooks. (Colorado State CIRA)

Kirk has maximum sustained winds of 140 mph, and a slow weakening trend should begin this weekend. By next week, Kirk will be a distant memory.

Meanwhile, to Kirk’s southeast, Leslie is taking on some strength of its own. Now a 65 mph tropical storm, Leslie is expected to become a hurricane this weekend, possibly close to a major hurricane. It has a few more hurdles than Kirk had, including Kirk itself. But I suspect it’ll be a healthy storm soon.

Leslie is a much smaller storm southeast of Kirk, but it too is expected to chug out to sea as a hurricane next week. (Weathernerds.org)

Beyond these two storms and a potential one in the Gulf, we have nothing else to really speculate on right now.