Matt Lanza

Gulf tropical development odds on the increase again with at least a heavy rain event coming to Florida

Headlines

  • Tropical development potential is increasing in the Gulf again, as moisture Sunday-Monday may precede an organized system next week.
  • It’s too soon to say exactly what may occur, but model agreement in something has increased rather significantly since yesterday.
  • Interests in Florida should prepare for heavy rain and flooding in the I-4 corridor and on the coast, and may need to begin to prepare for an eventual tropical system next week. Stay tuned this weekend.
  • Kirk is near or just past peak intensity now and Leslie is on the increase out in the open Atlantic, no threat to land.

Something may emerge from the Gulf sloppiness

We continue to watch with curiosity how exactly the Gulf situation will unfold. What we know for sure: A multi-day rain event is coming for the Florida Peninsula. What we don’t know? Just about everything else. Modeling seems to actually be reinvigorating the potential for some sort of formal development of this system in the Gulf. If we look at satellite today, we can at least see the early underpinnings of it, courtesy of the remnants of Pacific Tropical Depression 11.

A rather robust area of thunderstorms now sits in the Bay of Campeche, courtesy of Pacific TD 11’s remnants. Gradual organization of this system seems increasingly likely over the weekend. (Weathernerds.org)

The system sits just off the coast of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche. Almost all operational models now show at least some organization of this system by Sunday afternoon just northwest of the Yucatan. As it moves east northeast, it continues to develop on most modeling as well. We actually have a majority of Euro ensemble members showing some development by early Tuesday morning.

European ensemble members show likely slow development by Monday night or Tuesday morning in the western Gulf before things get swept east toward Florida. (Weathernerds.org)

Beyond this point, modeling seems to diverge. Some kill it off as just a rainstorm. Others keep it going and developing as a higher end tropical storm into Florida. I think there’s still plenty of uncertainty, but if we were close to writing this off yesterday, we need to take the concept of tropical development seriously today.

Aside from that, the potential for heavy rain and flooding both ahead of and with any tropical development is legitimate in the Florida Peninsula, primarily near or south of I-4. One wave should arrive Sunday into Monday, and then the next would arrive later Tuesday into Wednesday depending on how this evolves. Each wave will bring the potential for heavy rain, with a gradually increasing flood potential for Florida.

An increasing risk of flooding will build next week in Florida with or without tropical development in the Gulf. (NWS Miami)

Rain totals are still around 4 to 8 inches on average, especially on the coast and along the I-4 corridor, but some other inland locations will also have potential for heavy rain and flooding too. This will be a situation to follow closely this weekend in case of any sudden change in development chances.

Kirk flirts with Cat 5, Leslie ramping up

Hurricane Kirk blew up last night into a category 4 storm, and at times some of the remote sensing data we use to estimate intensity of storms that far from land indicated it was on the precipice of category 5 intensity. It still looks textbook today, again no threat to land thankfully.

Hurricane Kirk is straight outta the textbooks. (Colorado State CIRA)

Kirk has maximum sustained winds of 140 mph, and a slow weakening trend should begin this weekend. By next week, Kirk will be a distant memory.

Meanwhile, to Kirk’s southeast, Leslie is taking on some strength of its own. Now a 65 mph tropical storm, Leslie is expected to become a hurricane this weekend, possibly close to a major hurricane. It has a few more hurdles than Kirk had, including Kirk itself. But I suspect it’ll be a healthy storm soon.

Leslie is a much smaller storm southeast of Kirk, but it too is expected to chug out to sea as a hurricane next week. (Weathernerds.org)

Beyond these two storms and a potential one in the Gulf, we have nothing else to really speculate on right now.

Gulf tropical development risks remain modest as focus points to a Florida Peninsula rainstorm

Headlines

  • Tropical development in the Gulf remains possible but not entirely likely over the next 5 days or so.
  • Regardless, the combination of a couple disturbances and the remnants of Pacific TD 11 will combine to produce significant moisture tracking toward the Florida Peninsula.
  • Heavy rain and some flooding are possible there, especially at the coast and south of I-4 next week.
  • Hurricane Kirk is nearing category 4 intensity in the open Atlantic, no threat to land.
  • Tropical Storm Leslie will slowly organize and may track a bit farther south and west than Kirk but most likely not threaten land.

Gulf development risks slowly backsliding, but heavy rain chances in Florida increasing

We are down to a 30 percent chance of tropical development in the Gulf today, as we continue to watch for disorganized thunderstorms in the area over the next few days. I still think this area will have a chance to develop next week, and many models show development of low pressure into something akin to a depression by early next week.

Very disorganized and patchy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean and western Gulf of Mexico will continue for a few more days before advancing east toward the Florida Peninsula. (Weathernerds.org)

Today, there’s nothing at all today. We have a cluster of storms south of Cuba and another one in the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf of Mexico. No imminent development is likely from this. Wind shear looks to be a bit much right now, and that may be the biggest limiting factor in any development out of this area. I would say odds of a named storm are quite low from all this, but odds of an invest or depression are moderate still.

What this will do, however, is deliver rain to the Florida Peninsula. Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday look quite wet. Atmospheric moisture is going to load up over Florida, with precipitable water values (or how much available moisture there is) up around the 90th percentile for early October, or around 175 percent of normal. Between the two disturbances noted above, the remnants of Tropical Depression 11 in the Pacific will enter the fray as well.

Precipitable water, or how much moisture is available in the atmosphere will be up around 175 percent of normal early next week in Florida. (Weather Bell)

This translates to a lot of moisture available for heavy rainfall. Not everywhere in Florida will get dumped on. But there will be heavy rain around and if you have vacation plans, all I can say is to keep tabs on the forecast early next week and consider some indoor activities. Current rain totals look to be on the order of 4 to 8 inches through next week, with the highest amounts on the immediate coast and south of I-4. North of there through Jacksonville or Gainesville looks to be a bit less impacted.

The heaviest rains look to be on the immediate coast and south of I-4 next week in Florida, where 4 to 8 inches of rain may fall. (Pivotal Weather)

We’ll keep tabs on this for potential flooding. At this point, we remain fairly unconcerned with any other tropical impacts, other than rip currents which are always a consideration with a disturbance in the Gulf.

Atlantic racking up cyclone intensity

Meanwhile, the open Atlantic is bustling with Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie. Neither storm is a threat to land.

Kirk is a major, category 3 hurricane, heading for cat 4 intensity, while Leslie is expected to trail Kirk as a hurricane of its own. (Tomer Burg)

Kirk is about as classic looking as it gets, albeit with a relatively large eye.

Hurricane Kirk has maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, making it a strong category 3 hurricane, likely headed to mid-end cat 4 intensity. (Tropical Tidbits)

Hurricane Kirk should peak in intensity tomorrow before slowly weakening as it goes north and northeast out to sea. Modeling is in decent agreement that this will avoid the Azores on its way out right now.

Leslie is a little sloppier right now, but it too should intensify into a hurricane eventually this weekend. It will trail Kirk a little farther to the south and west. There is a very, very, very slight chance that Leslie could gain enough longitude to perhaps deliver some fringe impacts to the islands at some point, but that’s unlikely and a long way off. We’ll keep an eye on things.

The good news is that once Kirk and Leslie exit and the Gulf system is out of the picture later next week, I don’t quite know what would be next. There are no model signals of any real strong sort that point to the next system to watch. So perhaps we get a little break. Could it be the final break and the season is over? Maybe, maybe not. But with such warm water still out there, a November storm somewhere would be unsurprising this year.

Gulf development may ultimately end up heading to Florida as a cold front dives south early next week

Headlines

  • Disorganized showers and storms over the Gulf will become a disturbance this weekend. It will likely track east toward Florida.
  • The current thinking is that it will have a low ceiling of intensity, but it may be a significant rain maker, especially on the coast (both west and east coast of Florida).
  • Hurricane Kirk should become a category 4 storm over the next couple days in the open Atlantic, no threat to land.
  • Tropical Depression 13 has formed behind Kirk and should become Leslie, also no threat to land.

Gulf potential still there

We continue to monitor the chances of Gulf development. Although the NHC maintains a 40 percent chance this morning, I suspect that may be slowly increasing again. If we look at satellite imagery, we see two disorganized disturbances right now; one in the Bay of Campeche and another in the northwest Caribbean.

Disorganized thunderstorm activity is a little more widespread today than it has been. (Weathernerds.org)

The overall environment is somewhat favorable for development, but there’s just no order to any of this right now, so any sort of organization would proceed slowly. Over the next couple days, we’ll likely see this lift north and sort of merge in the Gulf, becoming one disorganized disturbance near or north of the Yucatan. By the time we get to Sunday, we should have an invest or some sort of surface low pressure system in the central Gulf of Mexico.

Surface low pressure should develop by Sunday in the central Gulf. Note the cold fronts over the Southeast and Central US, however. (NOAA WPC)

This will sit there while a weak front in the Southeast and a slightly more robust front in the Plains and Mid-South drop southward toward the Gulf on Monday and Tuesday. What this means is that whatever this becomes will likely get pushed eastward toward Florida. Unlike Helene which came northward, this one seems more likely to have an easterly bend in its track toward the Peninsula. By Tuesday morning, we likely have some sort of system, be it still an invest or perhaps a tropical depression sitting just off the west coast of Florida.

Low pressure will probably be just west of Tampa next Tuesday as twin cold fronts push it eastward. Intensity appears to be weak, but it will have a lot of rain with it. (NOAA WPC)

Based on most modeling, there is decent growing agreement in some sort of weak low moving into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday or so. I don’t expect this to be a hurricane right now, but a tropical storm is a possibility, and this will certainly carry a good deal of rain across Florida as well. Expect marine impacts, rip currents, and breezy conditions next week if you’re visiting Florida. Rain totals are pretty steady day over day, though isolated higher amounts closer to 10 inches will be possible on either the Gulf Coast or East Coast of Florida next week.

Rain totals of 4 to 8 inches seem reasonable next week in Florida, mainly between Tampa and Fort Myers or West Palm Beach and Daytona Beach along the coast. Interior areas may also see heavy rainfall, but the highest totals will be on the coastline. (Pivotal Weather)

So, at this point in Florida, you’re probably looking at a swimming and marine hazard risk, along with the potential for flash flooding from rainfall, especially on the coast. Obviously the West Coast does not need to hear more about any flooding, but it’s a possibility to monitor. Surge impacts would probably be light to moderate from this. Obviously if this can find a way to intensify further, we’re looking at a different outcome. At present, modeling is in good agreement on the scenario outlined above being the likely one. But as always continue to monitor forecasts for any changes.

Atlantic twins ahead

Hurricane Kirk is now expected to become a category 4 storm in the next couple of days as it wanders over the open Atlantic.

Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Depression 13 (southeast of Kirk) taking up residence in the eastern Atlantic. (Colorado State, CIRA)

Kirk should go beast mode out in the open Atlantic the next couple days, while TD 13 slowly gathers steam. Modeling is a bit less aggressive with 13, but we should at least see Tropical Storm and eventually Hurricane Leslie form. It, too, is expected to remain out at sea, not far from Kirk. Neither are threats to land.

Behind these two, there are no signs of any meaningful disturbances at this time. Hopefully we can enter a period of calm in mid-October, but we’ll see if anything else shows itself in the days ahead.

Gulf development chances stagnate some but remain worth monitoring as Kirk revs up in the open Atlantic

Headlines

  • Helene help continues to be desperately needed.
  • Gulf development odds have stalled somewhat, but development of a sloppy system tracking east or northeast in the Gulf this weekend or next week seems plausible.
  • The main concern we currently have is potential for heavy rain in Florida.
  • Tropical Storm Kirk should become a hurricane in the next day, while Invest 91L may become a depression or Tropical Storm Leslie by tomorrow or Thursday. Neither are currently expected to impact land.

Helene latest

As communication slowly gets restored to affected areas from Hurricane Helene, we are beginning to get a sense of the scope of the disaster and the horrific details of loss and survival. The toll will likely get worse before it gets better. And we continue to encourage folks to contribute to organizations helping directly with the recovery efforts. Our list from yesterday:

Blue Ridge NPR has a good list. (many locally based resources on this list and other orgs, such as Samaritan’s Purse)

The East Tennessee Foundation is a resource as well.

A Houston-based organization that specifically helps food and beverage workers (of which many were impacted) called the Southern Smoke Foundation is another one I personally support and recommend.

World Central Kitchen is on the ground there also, serving up meals.

The Fuel Relief Fund specifically helps people with fuel.

Team Rubicon is on the ground as well.

Crowdsource Rescue is another org we’ve directly engaged with in the past that is doing incredible work right now.

The Cajun Navy is also doing rescue work in the region, and they’ve been a friend to us in Houston too.

Gulf development odds stall a bit

Now for some good news, I guess. Development odds over the next week or so in the Gulf have stalled a bit, or at least stagnated some. The NHC map is at 40 percent this morning, same as it was yesterday.

Odds of development remain moderate for the Gulf over the next week. (NOAA NHC)

Keep in mind that the orange hatched area above indicates *where* development could occur, not where the system is expected to track. There’s not a whole lot to look at this morning, as any disturbance is very nascent and poorly organized. Over the next couple days, this will migrate northward and perhaps get slightly better organized. Various models depict various solutions, including the possibility that additional areas of disturbed weather enter the picture as well. Overall, the picture looks sloppy.

Tropical development may emerge from disturbed weather in the southwest Caribbean, as it comes northward. (Tropical Tidbits)

It’s worth noting for those extra concerned that this looks nothing at all like Helene did at this point in its life cycle. So this is why we continue to think that things are likely to be much sloppier and a bit lower end on the intensity scale as this gets moving.

The model solutions really do range from a more organized system to even 2 organized systems to just a “blob” of moisture that tracks northwest, then north, then northeast or even east-northeast across the Gulf, generally toward Florida. Some even sort of stall it out over the open Gulf, sort of like we saw last month off Texas where an undeveloped system sat and festered for a while before Francine emerged from the slop after a week or two. If you look at the GFS ensemble in particular, it shows a whole slew of options.

The 30 member GFS ensemble shows a number of possible solutions ranging from low-end hurricane to tropical storm to depression or less. In general, this would track northeast or east-northeast toward Florida or the eastern Gulf Coast. (Weathernerds.org)

Again, this is much different than how things looked ahead of Helene. Given the idea of a sloppy system, a front in the vicinity early next week, and a somewhat disorganized initial disturbance, all this leads me to think that a messy rainmaker may be on tap for the eastern Gulf Coast and Florida this weekend and next week. Indeed, the rainfall forecast in Florida is solid. For now, serious flooding isn’t expected, but continue to watch this and monitor its progress in the coming days. I think it’s obvious that this one is going to be of lower predictability than Helene was. But also hopefully lower risk as well.

Rainfall over the next week will be highest on the Gulf Coast of Florida and across Central Florida. (Pivotal Weather)

Kirk gaining momentum, and Invest 91L may develop behind it

Tropical Storm Kirk is on the precipice of hurricane intensity this afternoon, as it is a 70 mph tropical storm. Kirk is still expected to remain safely out at sea.

Tropical Storm Kirk is gaining momentum while fighting off some residual shear today. (Tropical Tidbits)

Kirk should intensify steadily over the coming days, peaking as at least a category 3 and possibly category 4 storm over the open Atlantic later this week. Expect to see some pretty stunning satellite imagery at some point. Again, thankfully, Kirk will avoid land.

Behind Kirk, we do have a second area, Invest 91L. This one is close to developing as well. Over the coming days, this will take a track generally south and west of Kirk’s track. This should still keep it out at sea, but we’ll continue to watch this one closely in case it can manage to brush the islands eventually.

Invest 91L has a bit of a wide spread of possibilities. A weaker storm would probably track on the south side of that forecast envelope, while a stronger one would lean to the north. For now, it’s expected to stay out at sea too. (Tropical Tidbits)

That’s all we’ve got for now. We will likely see some additional Pacific systems later this week as well. None at this point look to threaten land for now. More to come!