Matt Lanza

Beryl closing in on the Windward Islands as a strengthening major hurricane (UPDATED)

3 PM CT Monday Update

Beryl made a quick landfall this morning on the island of Carriacou just north of Grenada as a category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds. Beryl remains a beast of a storm, albeit relatively compact in the Caribbean. It will mostly avoid land now for a bit.

A historic storm for the southeast Caribbean, Beryl remains near maximum intensity as it moves west northwest away from the Windward Islands. (Weathernerds.org)

Beryl will track mostly west northwest the next couple days, and it will likely encounter a good deal of wind shear after tomorrow morning, allowing it to begin weakening as it moves toward Jamaica. We continue to believe it will pass south of Jamaica. There remains a good deal of uncertainty beyond the end of the week in terms of where Beryl goes and whether or not it can track northwest enough to get into the Gulf. That remains a low likelihood scenario, and most tropical models agree that Beryl will be disheveled enough to be bullied by high pressure over the Southeast and Gulf to be forced toward Mexico or extremely far south Texas. We’ll continue watching trends, but Beryl’s forecast for the weekend is not much clearer this afternoon than it was this morning.

The morning post follows:

Headlines

  • Beryl will make a direct hit across the Windward Islands today, very near Grenada or the Grenadines with impacts beyond there.
  • Beryl is reintensifying after undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle overnight.
  • Beryl will track west northwest across the Caribbean, eventually encountering some wind shear that should weaken it a good bit before it passes south of Jamaica.
  • Uncertainty remains high on the ultimate track of Beryl beyond the Caribbean, but modeling has made a fairly southward shift since yesterday, keeping most impacts near Mexico. It still bears close watching.
  • TD 3 became Chris overnight and is now inland with heavy rain over Mexico, while Invest 96L (unlike Beryl) will take a slow and steady approach to organization over the course of this week.

Hurricane Beryl: 130 mph, moving west northwest at 20 mph

Hurricane Beryl has just undergone what we call an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). You can read about the nuts and bolts of it here, but in a nutshell, this is where a hurricane basically takes a moment to reorganize itself and expand in size. As a result, Beryl’s wind field has increased with hurricane-force winds now out about 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds out 125 miles from the center. Beryl remains relatively compact, but it has grown somewhat.

Hurricane Beryl came out of an eyewall replacement cycle this morning and is unfortunately reintensifying at the worst possible time for the Windward Islands. (Weathernerds.org)

Unfortunately, since Beryl is wrapping up an ERC, this means it will have an opportunity now to restrengthen. Winds were down to 120 mph as of early this morning from its peak around 130 mph yesterday, but we may see those increase once more. (Editor’s note: They have increased to 130 mph again as of the 8 AM AST advisory)

Whatever the specifics are, it’s pretty clear that a major hurricane is going to directly impact the Windward Islands today, with the worst impacts coming near Grenada and the Grenadines, south of St. Vincent.

Hurricane Beryl’s 5 AM forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows a turn more north of due west is expected, bringing it near or just south of Jamaica by later Wednesday or Thursday. (Tomer Burg)

Total rainfall from Beryl will be heavy, but because it is booking it west, the rain totals will generally be 10 inches or less. Surge and wind will be major problems with rainfall a secondary hazard in this case.

Once through the Windward Islands, the next land mass to watch for potential impacts will be Jamaica. While Beryl is likely to pass south of the island Wednesday night or Thursday, avoiding a direct hit, it will be close enough to deliver wind, rain, and surge to Jamaica, and it’s just a question of how much. Notably, Beryl is expected to weaken after tomorrow morning. It will begin to encounter a good bit of wind shear in the central and western Caribbean. The official forecast keeps Beryl a category 2 storm all the way to the Yucatan, but model guidance is actually a little more aggressive in weakening Beryl to perhaps even a tropical storm. While no one should be sleeping on Beryl, this is very likely to be a much different storm in 2 days than it is right now.

For those of you with plans in Jamaica or the Caymans or the Yucatan and Belize, we can’t tell you what to do. Just continue to monitor Beryl’s progress and reach out to your hotel or resort for more guidance.

After day 3, the weather pattern will support Beryl continuing west around the base of high pressure centered over the Southeast or northern Gulf of Mexico.

Beryl should be south of Jamaica Wednesday night, continuing to be steered west or west northwest around the base of high pressure over the Southeast and Gulf. (Tropical Tidbits)

The question will be how long this high stays in tact. The high is expected to weaken by Friday or Saturday. At that point, Beryl should be near or over the Yucatan. The uncertainty then lies in whether Beryl has enough left to it after encountering shear and land to determine if it continues west northwest or shifts more northwest. There is actually decent tropical model agreement that it will continue west northwest, which is close to the official forecast as shown above. A handful of other models suggest it will turn northwesterly toward northern Mexico or Texas.

Modeling is actually in rather good agreement that Beryl will cross the Yucatan and emerge in the far southern Bay of Campeche before perhaps turning more northwesterly. (Tomer Burg)

From the track density plot above, you can see that Beryl is expected with high confidence to pass just south of Jamaica and the Caymans before approaching the Yucatan or Belize. Confidence diminishes from there with some models dissipating Beryl and others continuing it across the Bay of Campeche toward Mexico or far south Texas. Again, keep in mind that this will be a much different storm then than it is today, and it will probably need some time to organize itself after reaching land in the Yucatan. Its forward speed is such that it will likely have a limited amount of time to get itself back together as it approaches the coast. Folks in Mexico and Texas should continue to watch Beryl’s progress, but at this point, it’s too soon to get more specific than that.

Stay tuned for more on this, but in the meantime, our thoughts are with the Windward Islands today.

The rest of the crew

Tropical Depression 3 became Tropical Storm Chris overnight and is now inland and once more a depression. It is a heavy rainmaker for Mexico.

Total rainfall from Chris will be on the order of 300 mm (12 inches) or more locally in parts of Mexico, with widespread 100 to 200 mm (4 to 8 inch) totals. (NOAA NHC)

Behind Beryl, we continue to track Invest 96L. Models support a slow, gradual intensification of 96L as it essentially follows Beryl’s wake. Slightly cooler water will likely aid in that slower pace of growth. The National Hurricane Center is holding around a 60 percent chance of development with 96L, but it’s far too soon to speculate on exactly where it goes, short of it will follow close to Beryl’s track. What we’re more confident in is that slower pace of intensification.

Invest 96L has about a 60 percent chance of developing over the next week or so as it comes west. It will follow very close to Beryl’s track and likely intensify at a much slower pace than Beryl did. (NOAA NHC)

Some good news: Once 96L exits the picture, we are expecting the Atlantic to settle down into a bit of a July lull (or so we hope). But model guidance keeps any real hint of anything absent in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf beyond 96L right now. Fingers crossed so we can catch our breath before August.

Beryl is on its way to hurricane intensity as it moves toward the Windward Islands

Headlines

  • Beryl is expected to become a hurricane as it moves into the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday.
  • Beryl has the potential to become a major hurricane as it moves into the Caribbean, feasting on water more typical of August or September than June or July.
  • Hurricane impacts are likely for Barbados and the islands south of Martinique.
  • Interests in Jamaica, southern Hispaniola, and the rest of the western Caribbean should monitor Beryl’s progress closely.
  • It is simply too soon to say anything coherently about the U.S. Gulf Coast or Mexico impacts from Beryl, if any at all.
  • Invest 94L will bring heavy rain to Mexico, while a wave behind Beryl has a 60 percent chance of slowly developing next week.

Tropical Storm Beryl

Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to become a hurricane by tomorrow and a borderline major hurricane as it approaches the Windward Islands on Monday. (Tomer Burg)

As expected, Invest 95L became a depression and is now Tropical Storm Beryl. It is expected to become a hurricane as it moves through the Windward Islands and into the Caribbean by Monday. From there, confidence in track decreases a good bit and interests in the western Caribbean, including Jamaica should monitor Beryl’s progress over the next few days.

Beryl’s intensity

A look at Beryl on satellite this morning shows a rather robust system that’s working hard to get organized.

Tropical Storm Beryl on satellite shows signs of becoming better organized, though it is still fending off some dry air and wind shear. (Weathernerds.org)

The center is still skewed to the eastern half of the thunderstorm activity, meaning it’s not quite *well* organized yet. But it’s trending in that direction. Look for Beryl to become a more buttoned up tropical storm later today.

From here, we have almost unanimous model agreement that Beryl will strengthen as it comes west toward the Windward Islands. It arrives in about 48 hours, and the model probabilities of strong intensification are extremely high. Right now SHIPS guidance, which we use as a guide for potential rapid intensification is running anywhere from 5 to 13 times higher than climatology over various periods and intensities. The National Hurricane Center describes Beryl’s environment as “abnormally favorable” for intensification. This is precisely what we were concerned about coming into this hurricane season, as water temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region are at record levels. They’re at records in the Caribbean too. Beryl is in an environment that’s more August than June.

Water temperatures in the Atlantic MDR where Beryl is located are near or above last year’s record levels and are more typical of September than June. (University of Arizona/Kim Wood)

The official NHC forecast brings Beryl to higher end Category 2 intensity by the time it cuts across the Windward Islands and into the Caribbean, and there is legitimate risk that this forecast is too conservative. A major hurricane may be possible near Barbados or as Beryl inches into the Caribbean. If you’re wondering, only 13 Category 2 or stronger hurricanes have passed within 100 nautical miles of Barbados historically, all of which have occurred in August or later. We’re in uncharted territory.

As Beryl works into the Caribbean, it will hit a bit of a crossroads. If the storm really intensifies beyond forecasts, it could be drawn north closer to Jamaica or Cuba and run into land issues that weaken the storm. If Beryl is impacted by wind shear, as is often the story in the Caribbean, it will likely stabilize or even weaken some as it comes west. That is what is explicitly shown in the NHC forecast, with Beryl dropping to category 1 intensity again by Wednesday night.

All that said, I would not necessarily be counting on Beryl to weaken at this point, and as the NHC even notes, people should not be focused on the specific intensity numbers. The near term concern is folks in the Windward Islands preparing for a borderline major hurricane impact, while folks downstream in Jamaica or the Caymans or even Hispaniola should monitor Beryl’s progress closely.

Beryl’s track

As noted above, a lot of Beryl’s track may depend on its intensity, with a stronger storm “feeling” troughing near Bermuda and being tugged northward, while a weaker or more disorganized storm may track more westerly or west-northwesterly across the Caribbean.

Strong model agreement on Beryl’s track exists until it gets to 70°W longitude in the Caribbean, when a wider spread of options opens up. (Tomer Burg)

The map above shows the probability of Beryl’s track being within 150 km of a given point. You can see that model agreement is extremely strong as Beryl passes the Windward Islands. Once it gets into the Caribbean, confidence diminishes a good bit until it drops to low confidence in the western Caribbean. But I think it’s obvious that tracks toward southern Hispaniola, Jamaica, and elsewhere are very much on the table, and the current forecast cone from the NHC captures this very well.

For folks on the U.S. Gulf Coast or in Mexico and the Yucatan, it’s simply too soon to really say a lot about this. There’s no real signal in the noise that we can meaningfully derive from the current model guidance. Yes, it seems a track to the south of the Gulf is generally favored right now, but there is a high degree of uncertainty beyond day 5 on where this goes, in addition to the uncertainty on its intensity. Keep monitoring for now, but we’re still a few days from being able to say something coherently.

Beryl’s impacts

For the Windward Islands, Beryl clearly looks as if it will be a noteworthy storm in terms of wind speed, with again only 13 previous category 2 or stronger storms in that region since the 1800s. A hurricane watch is posted for Barbados, and additional watches or warnings will be handed out later today.

A look at the HWRF model as it moves into the Windward Islands (don’t focus on specifics here) shows a relatively compact storm.

Beryl’s hurricane force winds will be relatively compact, but the tropical storm force winds will likely impact Grenada northward to Martinique. These areas should all be preparing for a hurricane impact, in case the track shifts one way or another. (Tropical Tidbits)

Hurricane-force winds are not forecast to extend out terribly far from the center, but tropical storm-force winds (damaging winds) would be implied to extend from Martinique south toward probably Grenada. With that said, any shift in track could easily change the outcome on a given island. So basically, the Windward Islands should all be preparing for a hurricane impact.

Beryl will also produce heavy rainfall on its path.

Total rainfall from Beryl is expected to peak around 6 to 8 inches (150-200 mm) near the center of its track through the islands. Uncertainty increases in Beryl’s rain totals for Hispaniola and Jamaica as it tracks west, given the uncertainty on track and intensity specifics. (NOAA WPC)

Rain totals should peak near Barbados, St. Vincent, or St. Lucia with about 6 to 8 inches total. Higher amounts are possible. Flooding and mudslides will be a concern but perhaps mitigated somewhat by Beryl’s forward speed. Waves and rough seas will also be an obvious issue with Beryl as it moves into the Caribbean.

Bottom line on Beryl: A storm more typical of August or later will impact the Windward Islands by Monday, and those regions should prepare for hurricane impacts. Areas in the rest of the central or western Caribbean should monitor Beryl’s progress closely in the coming days.

Other systems of note

Invest 94L flared up yesterday in the northwest Caribbean. It’s currently over land, but it will have a brief window to perhaps make a go at organization before moving inland in Mexico early next week. Heavy rain and flooding are the main concerns with this.

We’ll continue to watch the wave behind Beryl, which now has a 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical system next week. In DJ Khaled parlance, another one.

There’s another wave behind Beryl that is increasingly likely to develop next week. It would likely follow Beryl into the Caribbean, but current modeling is less excited about how strong this gets. (NOAA NHC)

This wave will likely follow Beryl into the Caribbean, though currently the models suggest it will have less upside than Beryl in terms of intensity. Thus, one might expect this stays in the southern Caribbean tracking west or west-northwest. Still, we’re several days out, so we’ll keep monitoring.

Invest 95L will likely become Beryl sooner than later as it tracks toward the southern Caribbean (UPDATED)

Update (4:40 PM CT Friday): Invest 95L is now Tropical Depression 2, and it is expected to become a formidable hurricane as it moves into the Caribbean.

The 4PM CT advisory and forecast for TD 2. (NOAA NHC)

We will have more on Saturday morning.

Headlines

  • Invest 95L is close to depression or tropical storm status.
  • It is likely to enter the Southern Caribbean by Monday as a tropical storm or hurricane.
  • All the Lesser Antilles should monitor 95L’s progress, but islands south of Martinique (the Windward Islands) stand the highest risk of impacts.
  • This is not expected to impact Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands beyond rough seas or some showers.
  • There is a lot of uncertainty on what happens to 95L after Monday or Tuesday.

Invest 95L should become Tropical Storm Beryl before too long

Looking at satellite this morning, and I have to think we are close to a depression here. A tropical storm is probably not too far behind. In fact the latest National Hurricane Center outlook has just upgraded Invest 95L to 100 percent odds of development in the next 48 hours. The disturbance has it mostly together today, and it is nothing short of impressive for this far south and east in late June.

Invest 95L is inching closer to becoming a tropical depression and eventually a tropical storm. (Weathernerds.org)

It continues to chug west at a very low latitude (around 9°N or so). Weather models are in impressively good agreement on the next 72 hours of track with 95L, bringing it across the Atlantic and into the Caribbean near 13°N, give or take. This would track it toward Barbados, St. Lucia, or St. Vincent and the Grenadines by Monday morning. At this point, most data keeps this one comfortably south of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

The ensemble means of all models, as well as most operational guidance is in strong agreement that 95L will track into the Caribbean near or just south of Barbados by late Sunday or Monday. (Tomer Burg)

We have good agreement on this, supported by tropical models, operational global models, and ensemble means.

Things get dicier on what this will look like when it gets there. When we look at model guidance that tells us the odds of a storm rapidly intensifying, the SHIPS guidance, it tells us that those chances are running anywhere from two to seven times normal climatological odds. In other words, there is good support for 95L to continue a steady ascension as it approaches the Caribbean. With water temperatures running several degrees above normal in this region, if not at all-time records for this early in the season this seems to make sense. It would wise for folks in the southern Caribbean to prepare for impacts from at least a high-end tropical storm, if not a hurricane late Sunday or Monday. I would anticipate that watches are issued by tonight or Saturday morning.

So what happens from there? It’s tough to hold the Caribbean down in terms of wind shear. There’s a reason it’s referred to as the eastern Caribbean graveyard. As 95L or Beryl or whatever it is passes the islands and works across the southern Caribbean, it will probably start to encounter at least some wind shear. So this likely has about 72 to 96 hours to strengthen before things begin to start countering that.

Increasing wind shear may await Invest 95L as it migrates west across the Caribbean. If that happens, we could see intensity flatline or even weakening after Tuesday. (Tropical Tidbits)

This may also play a role in where 95L goes too. A weaker system would be more prone to stay south, likely tracking toward Central America or the Yucatan, while a stronger system may gain some latitude and eventually become a Gulf concern. So that’s a big issue to watch heading into next week.

When you look at the ensemble guidance from Tomer Burg’s excellent website, you see an interesting change in confidence once 95L gets halfway across the Caribbean.

An ensemble model track density plot shows how much confidence in track diminishes once about halfway across the Caribbean, with many ensemble members going into Central America, and a few into the Gulf or even east of there. (Tomer Burg)

Confidence in track is high, with at least 50 percent of ensemble members in decent agreement until it gets to about 70°W longitude, roughly halfway across the Caribbean. From there, some members (mostly GFS ones) go north, while most go west or west-northwest into the Yucatan or Central America. By late next week, whatever 95L is should be somewhere between about Nicaragua and Cozumel. Guidance implies it would be most likely to continue into Central America or Mexico, but there is still enough uncertainty in both the upper pattern steering 95L (ridging over the Southeast aiding it westward may weaken a bit) and the internal intensity of 95L to keep us on our toes regarding the end game here.

The bottom line: Invest 95L remains a system to watch, and in the near-term folks south of Martinique in the Windward Islands through Trinidad and Tobago should begin to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane by Monday morning.

Oh, there’s more?

There are a couple more waves behind Invest 95L, which some modeling tries to latch onto for development risks next week.

Additional tropical waves are at least showing up in models for possible development next week, as the Atlantic continues to look abnormally active to close June. (Weathernerds.org)

I’m not sure what to make of any of this yet, as I want to see what 95L does, but suffice to say, it’s abnormally active in the Atlantic right now for late June.

Invest 94L has not quit yet

The NHC continues with a 30 percent chance that Invest 94L will develop before coming ashore in Mexico early next week. Heavy rainfall remains the primary concern for Central America and Mexico with this system over the next few days.

The tropical Atlantic thinks it’s later July or August as Invest 95L captures our attention

Headlines

  • Invest 95L is slowly organizing in the central Atlantic.
  • There is strong model support for it to organize over the next 3 to 5 days.
  • Models differ significantly on how quickly that occurs, which has important ramifications for the longer-term outlook on 95L.
  • For now, Caribbean islands should monitor 95L closely as it organizes and prepare to put plans into action if need be, while those farther west and north should continue to check in every day or two for an update.
  • Invest 94L and a Central American gyre circulation will provide heavy rain for Mexico and Central America over the next week.

Invest 95L will be giving us headaches over the next 7 to 10 days

We’ll get to Invest 94L in a moment, but first and foremost, if you utilize social media or are weather savvy, you’ve more than likely seen some of the model solutions from deterministic models for Invest 95L, which was minted yesterday from the tropical wave in the central Atlantic. Here it is this afternoon:

Invest 95L has a nice little core of thunderstorms and a broad swirl to it already, but it is dealing with dry air in the vicinity. (Weathernerds.org)

It’s respectable. This, to me, looks more like what you’d see in the central Atlantic in August, not late June. So this feels rather bizarre. As we noted yesterday, storms in June are not unprecedented this far east, but they’re still fairly rare. So Invest 95L is humming, and it will be a good idea to monitor this.

One thing we strongly advise against this time of year is monitoring deterministic models too closely: the operational GFS, the operational ECMWF (Euro), etc. These are one-solution, one-forecast outcomes. They have inherent biases in certain situations. For example, the GFS tends to be overeager with Atlantic wave development in systems like 95L. So it wasn’t exactly a surprise to see it barreling a hurricane into the Gulf or toward Florida on a couple recent runs. The Euro has its own struggles, and it too can be prone to errors in track or intensity. But these models swing around a lot from run to run. For example, the last five runs of the GFS have shown multiple possibilities.

12z Wednesday: Southern Caribbean to Hispaniola
18z Wednesday: Yucatan to Mainland Mexico
00z Thursday: Jamaica to Yucatan to northern Mexico
06z Thursday: Haiti to Cuba to Houston
12z Thursday: South of Hispaniola, between Jamaica and Cuba, to Cancun to the Rio Grande

Intensities have fluctuated all over on each of these runs as well. So, we’re not telling you not to look at deterministic modeling. We don’t want to be condescending! But do not use them as planning tools or even as a barometer of what is most likely. Often, the deterministic modeling ends up on one extreme of the ensemble envelope, meaning it’s arguably the least likely outcome! This is why we use ensemble modeling. It gives us a breadth of outcomes and risks. And we can dig into it to pull some signal from the noise.

In this case, the European ensemble actually does a very good job of offering up just that. I don’t like sharing spaghetti plots, because they are often too difficult to understand, but in some cases, they’re extremely useful. I believe this is one of those cases. Here’s the 00z Euro ensemble spaghetti plot for 95L.

The Euro ensemble plot of 51 members shows outcomes ranging from off the East Coast to Central America, with intensities ranging from strong hurricanes to depressions or weaker. But some signal can be pulled from this. (Weathernerds.org)

What can we take from this? First, there is a very bimodal distribution of the members. In other words, there is one cluster that favors a westward or slightly north of west track all the way into Central America or Mexico. A second camp exists pulling 95L more to the north, even as far east as near Bermuda! This makes intuitive sense, and it gives us a guidepost to consider when thinking about 95L’s future. In addition to steering currents and such, one factor that will determine 95L’s future will be its own intensity. A storm that strengthens quickly will be more apt to gain latitude faster, meaning a track in the right half of the ensemble envelope. A storm that struggles to organize longer will stay at a relatively far south latitude longer, perhaps even grazing the coast of South America.

Click to enlarge this comparison showing the operational European model (left) less wound up and farther south, while the GFS (right) is more wound up and farther north.

Here’s a good way to actually use deterministic modeling to your benefit. If we look at the comparison of where 95L will be on Tuesday, you can see the GFS is farther north than the Euro. This should not come as a surprise, as it is much faster to develop and wind up 95L than the Euro.

From a practical point of view, this means that what happens over the next 3 to 5 days with Invest 95L will be fairly important. If it forms quickly, it could come farther north ultimately. If it is sluggish to organize, it will probably take a track in the southern half of the ensemble forecast envelope. This isn’t the only thing that will influence where 95L goes, but at the current time, it’s pretty important. As I noted, the GFS operational has a bias to wind these things up too quickly in this part of the world. So in many ways, this probably argues that the Euro idea (favoring the southern half of the ensemble envelope) is more likely. That being said, this is a very atypical year, with record warm water temperatures and such. With that in mind, it bears watching, especially for the Caribbean islands that will be first in line to receive whatever this is as it organizes. Those of you in the states or Central America should continue watching 95L’s progress in the days ahead.

The next name on the list is Beryl.

Invest 94L aids in heavy rain for Central America

Meanwhile, Invest 94L is heading very close to Central America today, which should really reduce its chances of development.

Invest 94L has an awful lot of thunderstorm activity, but it is tracking very close to land in Central America, likely limiting its development chances. (Tropical Tidbits)

It sure looks interesting on satellite until you realize that the center is just offshore of Honduras. This should keep any development in check over the next day or two. If it can sneak into the Bay of Campeche later this weekend, it has a slight chance to do something before going ashore in Mexico. Regardless, heavy rain is likely in Central America and Mexico with flooding possible. Anywhere from 100 to 200 mm of rain (4 to 8 inches) is likely in many spots, with higher amounts (300 mm or a foot or more) possible in some spots.

The next week of rainfall for the western Caribbean and Central America and Mexico. Yellows as seen from Belize into the eastern Yucatan and elsewhere indicate 100 mm or more. (Pivotal Weather)

Aside from 94L, a general gyre circulation will continue to provide heavy rainfall from Panama up into Mexico as well.