Matt Lanza

Atlantic aiming to awaken after August nap, as we watch east of the islands

Headlines

  • Tropical development remains possible next week just east of the Caribbean islands.
  • No signs of anything imminently bad or significant yet, but it’ll be the primary area to watch.
  • The Gulf Coast will get soaked through next week with at least some low-end risk that something could try to form in the Gulf later next week.
  • An additional system or two will be possible heading into the week of the 12th, but details are minimal right now.

Atlantic to awaken

Even before Ernesto exited on August 20th, it was apparent that we were headed into a somewhat lengthy lull in tropical action in the Atlantic basin. The signs of the nap ending are continuing to stack up as we head toward next week. Let’s be clear right away: This doesn’t mean that things are going to go crazy all of a sudden (though one can’t rule that out this year), nor does it necessarily mean there’s an imminent threat to anyone. But there will be more noise than we’ve seen since Ernesto.

There’s a 20 percent chance of development over the next week in the central Atlantic per the NHC. (NOAA NHC)

An area of interest got identified yesterday by the National Hurricane Center with odds of 20 percent for development over the next week. Those aren’t especially high, but as we’ve seen from storms this year, they all started from generally low probability points. I personally think the chance over the next five days is close to zero, with chances rapidly increasing on days six to seven, so I would expect this potential to increase tomorrow and Thursday.

The area of note is from the mass of clouds in the Atlantic between the Caribbean and Africa, just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands off Africa right now.

A satellite snapshot of the Atlantic basin today, with the area of interest just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. (College of DuPage)

This doesn’t look like much at this time, which is sort of the point. Any development from this area is going to be sluggish over the next five days or so, which is why I’m not particularly keen on anything here until next week.

But, support within modeling for this area to eventually develop continues to sustain today. Overnight runs of the European ensemble model and GFS ensemble model show at least marginal support for something to develop just east of the islands early next week. This may get off the ground slowly, but it should get off the ground. Looking at the GFS ensemble from this morning, you can see a decent signal for below average sea level pressure just east of the islands next Tuesday.

Support for below normal sea-level pressure east of the islands which could indicate some tropical development. (Tropical Tidbits)

This doesn’t mean a big storm or even a well-organized storm. But it’s a signal that adds to other signals that supports development.

From here, where would this go? Great question. There seem to be mixed signals today in modeling in terms of exact details on where high pressure will establish and move in the Atlantic next week. So, much like yesterday, I don’t want to overspeculate on where this could end up going. Just know that we continue to see potential next week just east of the islands, and those in the islands should monitor the progress of this forecast.

Gulf soaker

Meanwhile, looking farther west, the Gulf continues to look unsettled well into next week. While there is very little signal for anything specific, just the fact that we have a lot of moisture, thunderstorm chances, and little movement means we’ll be seeing a lot of festering in the Gulf next week. We’ve got disturbances, stalled fronts, and more just sort of sitting there. It remains more of a curiosity than a concern at this point, but it will be an area I’d watch later next week out of an abundance of caution.

The western Gulf Coast will continue to get soaked by rain and storms into next week, with perhaps as much as 8 inches or more of total rain on the Texas or Louisiana coasts. (Pivotal Weather)

Regardless, the Gulf Coast will get soaked into next week. We could see as much as 4 to 8 inches or even more in spots between about Matagorda Bay and New Orleans. Coastal locations are most likely to see the heaviest rainfall. While flooding may not be a serious concern initially, after repeated rounds of rain, we could hear more about flooding risks in this area. We’ll continue to babysit things to be safe.

Beyond next week

After the Gulf disturbance and the system east of the islands, we’ve got one or two other waves emerging off Africa with some signals in the modeling showing up today. Nothing imminent or particularly likely, but this would make some sense. Regardless, expect things to get busier after next week.

Change may be in sight in the Atlantic as we march into September but not this week

Headlines

  • No tropical development is expected this week in the Atlantic.
  • A tropical wave has a growing chance to develop next week just east of the Caribbean islands and is worth watching.
  • The overall background in the Atlantic may become more conducive to tropical development by mid-September.
  • Hawaii will see modest impacts from the remnants of Hurricane Gilma this weekend.

Another quiet week

The Atlantic will remain quiet for another week here, as we have no real development chances anywhere in the basin of note. The Gulf Coast will be busy with showers and thunderstorms, but no development is expected from anything.

Rainfall over the next week or so is expected to be meaningful in the western Gulf, but this should come with no organized tropical systems. (Pivotal Weather)

The eastern Atlantic looks quiet for now as well, however there is a tropical wave sitting out there. While it is unlikely to organize this week, it is becoming increasingly plausible that we see this begin to organize a bit as it approaches the islands next week.

Disorganized thunderstorms southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands may try to organize as they come west toward the Caribbean islands next week. (NOAA)

Will we get Francine?

The next name on the list is Francine, and there seems to be growing support that we may see this emerge from the morass in the eastern Atlantic in time. The European model is on this with a moderate signal for possible development near the islands next Tuesday.

A decent number of European ensemble members show development of this wave next week just east of the Caribbean. (Weathernerds.org)

I think things are still a bit tenuous in the Atlantic in terms of dry air, sinking air, and other issues that are disrupting development right now. But the overall background state of the western Atlantic is likely to improve a bit beginning next week for possible development chances. There is also a minor signal in the Gulf for next week, but it remains a minority of model solutions. Still, this would signal that the wet pattern in the Gulf should continue next week as well.

As for the potential of Francine, whatever happens with this system in the Atlantic, it seems most likely to turn northwest at some point. But until we get some additional clarity on how this will shake out, I don’t want to over-speculate. At the least, it would be good for the islands to keep tabs on this possible development next week.

Beyond this one, as I noted above, it does seem as if the overall state of the basin will improve going into the middle of September. This should allow things to pick up. In addition, all this quiet has allowed the Atlantic basin’s sea surface temperatures to persist very warm. We sit at or above records everywhere right now.

Sea surface temperatures are at their 2023 records in the Atlantic main development region. (University of Arizona/Dr. Kim Wood)

So it would make sense to think that as long as the background state of the basin becomes more hospitable for tropical development, it will begin again in earnest. Stay tuned.

Hawaii threats continue

After taking swipe from Hurricane Hone with some considerable flooding on the Big Island and some decent wind gusts. You can see some of the reports here. Next up, the remnants of Hurricane Gilma, which should arrive in the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. On this track, the worst of the rain impacts would likely pass north of the islands. Still, some modest impacts would be possible across the islands this weekend as it approaches and passes.

Hurricane Gilma will weaken significantly on approach to Hawaii, but it could still bring enhanced rain chances and breezes to the islands this weekend. (NOAA NHC)

Behind Gilma, we have Tropical Storm Hector, which is not expected to become a serious threat to Hawaii.

Atlantic slumbers on, while Tropical Storm Hone in the Pacific will swipe at Hawaii

Headlines

  • The Atlantic remains quiet for the foreseeable future.
  • Tropical Storm Hone will bring heavy rain and strong winds to parts of Hawaii later this week.
  • A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Big Island.
  • Thank you to our Friday featured sponsor: EnhanceCo!

Searching for signs of life in the Atlantic

All remains quiet in the Atlantic basin with no signs of any real meaningful activity expected over the next week or two. Odds of any activity on the Euro ensemble for the next 10 days look muted as well.

Probability of tropical development from the European ensemble appears to be 10 to 20 percent or less over the next 10 days, which is a very low value from a 51 member ensemble. (Weather Bell)

You can ignore what you see off the coast of South America. The only real candidate over the next couple weeks is probably a tropical wave that emerges off Africa around days 9 to 10. But even that seems like a low possibility. Yesterday’s extended range forecast from the European model into the first full week of September shows about half as much ACE as normal, meaning it predicts below average activity through about September 10th, the historical peak date of hurricane season.

Atlantic tropical activity is forecast to be below normal through week 3 from the European model. (ECMWF)

Does this change in weeks 4 and 5? Yes, however it never gets above normal. This argues that conditions will become more favorable for tropical development as September progresses. But it may argue that conditions end up less favorable than were feared coming into the season. At the risk of jinxing things, I’ll stop there. From an accumulated cyclone energy standpoint, we are now 18 percent of the way through hurricane season. If we get to September 2nd (10 days) with nothing, we’ll be 34 percent of the way there. Historically, we ramp up quickly now. That we’re quiet through the next 7 days or more is great news.

Honing in on Hawaii

Meanwhile, the Pacific continues to pick up the slack (though you can see from the chart above that this may not continue). Hurricane Gilma continues on a road to nowhere, though its remnants could impact Hawaii next week. Behind Gilma, a new storm should form this weekend or early next week. But of more consequence is Tropical Storm Hone (Pronounce HOH-neh). A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Big Island of Hawaii.

Hone is expected to pass just south of the Big Island on Saturday night as a strong tropical storm. (NOAA NHC)

Impacts to Hawaii will be mixed. Storms aren’t as straightforward in Hawaii as they can be at times in the Mainland of the U.S. Terrain plays a huge role in who sees what. For example, with Hone passing south of Hawaii, there will be substantial upslope rain with winds out of the southeast that occurs on the southeast facing slopes of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea. Rain will likely expand into other islands as well, but that will also be locally influenced by terrain. The strongest winds from Hone will occur on the downslope or western facing slopes and through passes. Winds could gust as high as 40 to 60 mph for folks.

Rain in Hawaii from Hone will be highest on the southeast facing slopes of the Big Island and Maui with slightly lesser amounts to the west. (Weather Bell)

Hone will continue off to the west, and then we’ll see what happens with Gilma’s remnants next week.

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Remaining calm in the Atlantic while the Pacific finds its groove

Headlines

  • The Atlantic does not have a specific candidate for development over the next week or more.
  • The Gulf may be an area to watch next week, but most modeling is mum on development chances.
  • Tropical Depression 1C will likely become a tropical storm and pass just south of Hawaii in the Pacific.

Atlantic remains quiet

Yesterday’s post went in detail about some of the possible reasons behind the quieter overall pace of storms this season and especially in August. Today, let’s check in on the real time and forecast.

The satellite imagery over the Atlantic Basin today looks more like something from June than late August. (College of DuPage)

If you asked me to tell you the date of the satellite image above without knowing anything about it, I would easily tell you probably June or early July. Or later in October or something. The only real tell might be that my eyes are trained to discern Saharan dust off of Africa in the infrared band of the satellite. But whatever it is, the takeaway here is that this is about as quiet as you will ever see a late August satellite image look over the Atlantic. There are currently no areas of interest. And when you look at the very latest 12z European model for the next 3 weeks, there are only scattered pockets of “noise” showing up in the forecast, and no real specific tropical wave to focus in on.

European ensemble forecast of low pressure centers over the next 15 days shows very little signal and only a modest amount of noise. (StormVista)

And within that noise, there is little signal to really pick up on. Maybe there’s a wave late that’s a recurve candidate out to sea? That’s about all I see here. That isn’t to say that there will be no systems to track over the next 2 weeks, it’s just that there isn’t exactly a strong signal for anything in particular right now. Which is unfathomable for late August in any year, let alone this one.

Now, I will say it’s wise to keep an eye on the Gulf next week. There is one little disturbance that comes ashore in Texas on Monday, ushering in a better chance of rainfall for much of the southern and eastern part of the (increasingly dry) state. Beyond that, I have seen the GFS model try to latch onto a tropical wave currently over Hispaniola. It never really develops it, but it does try to bring it into Texas or Louisiana later next week.

The GFS model shows a tropical wave approaching Texas or Louisiana later next week, unlikely to develop but worth watching. (Tropical Tidbits)

Do I agree with this? No. But any meteorologist worth their salt would not discount a tropical wave in the Gulf in late August. So it should be babysat, but I wouldn’t be too worried right now. At the least, hopefully all this opens up some rain risks in these areas. Since the calendar flipped to August, rain has been tough to come back in all of Texas and all of Louisiana. Houston is running about 20 percent of normal rainfall this month, while much of East Texas is less than 5 percent of normal. Louisiana is less the half of normal as well. Rain would be welcome.

Rainfall has been almost non-existent this month in much of Texas and Louisiana — and points northeast. (High Plains Regional Climate Center)

We’ll keep an eye on this as it evolves.

The Pacific is busy

While the Atlantic is on hiatus, the Pacific is busy. Hurricane Gilma is now a strong category 3 storm, heading for nowhere. Another disturbance behind Gilma is likely to form. And just this afternoon, we have Tropical Depression 1C in the central Pacific.

Tropical Depression 1C is currently expected to pass south of Hawaii. (NOAA NHC)

This one is not expected to become a significant storm, but it is expected to become a tropical storm as it passes south of Hawaii. Impacts to the islands may include heavy rainfall and gusty winds by Sunday or Monday, especially on the Big Islands, but it’s a little too soon to say much more than that at this point. We’ll keep an eye on this one as well.