Hurricane Melissa becomes the season’s third category 5 storm and its most dire

In brief: Hurricane Melissa has officially become a category 5 storm, and all the bad forecasts for Jamaica and elsewhere are mostly unchanged today. Notably, Melissa will also be the strongest storm since Sandy to hit eastern Cuba and may very well be worse, possibly the strongest on record there. Melissa will continue across the southeast Bahamas and into the open Atlantic, though it may impact Bermuda on the way out as well. Overall, Melissa continues to look like a catastrophic storm and the worst of 2025 in the Atlantic basin.

(NOAA/NHC)

Hurricane Melissa finally crossed the threshold into category 5 status this morning. Maximum sustained winds are 160 mph, and it is moving west at 3 mph.

Melissa’s structure is nearly perfect this morning. (College of DuPage)

There is little to say about Melissa’s intensity and threat that has not already been said. It’s as dangerous an outcome as we’ve seen for Jamaica in many years.

The only perhaps subtle change we’ve seen for Jamaica is probably that the track has nudged a little farther south than expected initially and landfall in Jamaica proper probably will occur a smidge farther west. Whether this practically means anything different, it’s tough to say, but little nudges and wobbles will be evident over the next 24 hours that end up leading to some degree of good and bad luck in parts of Jamaica. As it stands right now, the center should cross the island about 60 miles west of Kingston, the population center of Jamaica. Of course, that places Kingston on the stronger side of the storm but with hurricane force winds confined to about a 30 mile radius from the center, there’s likely going to be a buffer between the capital and the worst wind of the storm. That said, there will be significant rainfall, catastrophic winds in the mountains in particular, and likely significant damage and isolation for a number of smaller towns and villages across the country. Storm surge will also be catastrophic on parts of the south shore of Jamaica in particular.

Various European and AI ensemble model forecasts for Melissa’s track over the next few days, bringing into western Jamaica and very near Santiago de Cuba before tracking near Crooked and Long Islands in the Bahamas. (Google Weather Lab)

As far as intensity goes, expect either a high-end cat 4 at best or a cat 5 of some intensity. Strengthening is possible through the day today, but typically once at category 5 intensity, the storm does become prone to internal processes that can lead to intensity fluctuations after no more than 18 to 24 hours. At this point, you just hope it comes into Jamaica in a downward intensity cycle due to those internal processes, such as an eyewall replacement cycle. Those can’t typically be forecast well in the current state of the science.

For Cuba, Melissa will have some time back over warm water to recover some of what it inevitably loses over land, so I would still be expecting at least a major hurricane, with some chance of a category 4 storm. The track brings it very near Santiago de Cuba, the second largest city in the country. While the focus remains on Jamaica, don’t lose sight of the fact that this is going to be a particularly severe storm for eastern Cuba. This should be the strongest storm since Sandy to hit this part of Cuba from the south, and there’s a good chance it may be even stronger than that at landfall. Sandy killed 11 and destroyed over 15,000 homes in Santiago de Cuba.

Updated rainfall forecast for the Caribbean and Bahamas through the next 72 hours. (NOAA WPC)

Rainfall continues to look horrific for parts of Jamaica, where 20 to 30 inches (500-750 mm) or more may fall in spots in addition to what has already fallen. For Cuba, eastern provinces will see 15 to 20 inches of rain (375-500 mm). There could still be another foot (300 mm) of rain coming to Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula, as well as up to 10 inches (250 mm) or so in some of the Dominican Republic. In the Bahamas, we could see up to 8 inches (200 mm) or so near Crooked Island.

Looking down the road, there remains a fair bit of uncertainty, but a track placing the storm very near Bermuda on late Thursday night and Friday morning, possibly as a major hurricane seems plausible. A lot will depend on what Melissa’s structure looks like once it exits Jamaica and Cuba, but as long as its core is in-tact, there’s no reason a little re-strengthening could not occur in the southwest Atlantic before it levels off and begins to weaken south of Bermuda. For Bermuda, that means another possible hurricane impact this season.

Bottom line:

Jamaica: A top-end hurricane impact with catastrophic damage in parts of the country, substantial damaging flooding, and historic storm surge.

Cuba: One of the strongest recorded storms to hit the eastern provinces of the island and the worst since Hurricane Sandy in 2012. A major hurricane is likely to make landfall tomorrow night with severe wind, surge, and rainfall.

Hispaniola: Lingering heavy rain will cause additional flooding, mudslides, and landslides, particularly within the Tiburon Peninsula in Haiti.

Bahamas: A major hurricane passing through the areas around Crooked and Long Islands will occur Wednesday with significant wind and rain and surge in those southeast islands.

Turks and Caicos Islands: Mostly fringe impacts of locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and moderate surge. But still some uncertainty on exact track so vigilance is encouraged.

Bermuda: Potential for a direct hurricane impact by Thursday night and Friday, though uncertainty is high.

Melissa explodes into a powerful hurricane, and it is going to deliver catastrophic impacts to Jamaica

In brief: Melissa’s forecast has not changed much at all since yesterday unfortunately. The storm should slowly crawl south of Jamaica through tomorrow before turning north and hitting the middle of the island directly as a high-end major hurricane, possibly the strongest in Jamaica’s known history. Catastrophic impacts from surge, wind, and multiple days of torrential rain are likely. A slightly less intense (but likely still major hurricane) storm will hit eastern provinces of Cuba on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with severe impacts. Significant impacts are likely in the southeast Bahamas and perhaps Turks and Caicos Islands as a borderline major hurricane passes by on Wednesday. Bermuda should remain on alert for tropical storm or hurricane impacts by Friday.

Melissa surges to category 4 intensity

(NOAA/NHC)

It feels like it has become routine in recent years to witness storms going from disjointed to mammoth in just a day or two, and Melissa has done nothing to squelch that feeling. Just 24 hours ago, we had a modest storm spinning up, and today we are left with a storm closing in on becoming a monster as it traverses the warmest water in the Atlantic basin.

Note how little Melissa has moved in 24 hours and also how well defined it has become. (College of DuPage)

As noted last night, Melissa did move to the southwest a bit, which all but guarantees it will come into Jamaica as a high-end major hurricane tomorrow night and Tuesday morning. Melissa has sort of leveled off intensity-wise this morning, and we could see internal processes lead to some fluctuation in intensity today or tomorrow. Frankly, that’s just background noise more than anything, and the expectation is that we will probably have something close to a category 5 hitting Jamaica from the south Tuesday morning.

For details on storm surge, I recommend checking out Michael Lowry’s post this morning on that. He has a nice breakdown of what could end up happening.

Over the next 24 hours, Melissa will continue off to the west before it slams on the brakes and turns north and north-northeast, plowing right into Jamaica likely somewhere west of Kingston and east of Montego Bay. From there, it should continue off to the northeast and into Cuba. Landfall there looks to be between Las Tunas and Guantanamo. Melissa will likely be a bit less intense when it gets to Cuba, but it should still be a formidable, destructive major hurricane.

Melissa’s track spread widens beyond the Bahamas, with Bermuda firmly in the cone right now, albeit by a much less intense storm than it will be in Jamaica and Cuba. (Google Weather Lab)

Next up for Melissa will be the Bahamas. Model guidance gets a little fishier on timing here. Landfall in Cuba should occur roughly around midnight or just a little later Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. It will emerge through the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands during the day on Wednesday with deteriorating conditions probably around or just before sunrise Wednesday. As it moves through the Bahamas, it will probably be below major hurricane intensity, but it should still be a rather potent storm in that area. Melissa should pick up additional forward speed, exiting the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos quickly by Wednesday night. The track spread widens some beyond that, but Bermuda remains in the realm of possibility. Folks should keep monitoring the situation there, however although hurricane impacts are possible, the storm will be a much different and less intense system by then. Some of the predicted times here could fluctuate 12 to 18 hours in either direction as Melissa’s end game becomes clearer.

Melissa’s rainfall forecast from today into the upcoming week shows catastrophic amounts of rain in Jamaica, parts of eastern Cuba, and southwest Haiti. (NOAA/WPC)

The rainfall forecast remains just awful. Additional rain on top of what has fallen could be as much as 40 inches in eastern Jamaica (1,000 mm). Many areas will see 20 to 30 inches more, however. And most of this falls before the catastrophic wind and surge arrives. This is truly just a nightmarish type of worst-case scenario for Jamaica. Copious rain will make certain structures and infrastructure additionally vulnerable to already terrible hurricane conditions. In Haiti, rains will continue that could add up to another 15 to 20 inches in spots (375-500 mm) on the Tiburon Peninsula. As Melissa turns north, heavy rain will overspread eastern Cuba as well, perhaps adding up to 15 to 20 inches (375-500 mm) in Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, and Holguin. Rain of 6 to 10 inches is possible in the southeast Bahamas.

So, to summarize all this:

  • A historic, catastrophic storm is on tap for Jamaica with copious rain and some of the strongest winds experienced in modern times possible in many parts of the country. This will likely require a robust multi-national humanitarian response.
  • Continued rain may cause catastrophic impacts in southwest Haiti.
  • Severe impacts are likely in eastern provinces of Cuba, with a major hurricane (past peak) making landfall on Tuesday night or Wednesday, along with torrential rain in Guantanamo and Santiago de Cuba.
  • Significant impacts are likely in the southeast Bahamas and perhaps the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday as Melissa loses some intensity and pass through. It may still be a borderline major hurricane as it hits the islands.
  • Bermuda should be on watch for potential hurricane or tropical storm impacts by Thursday night or Friday.

Planning our next post Monday morning unless something changes significantly.

Melissa is rapidly intensifying southeast of Jamaica tonight

In brief: Melissa seems to be in the process of rapid intensification in the Caribbean tonight, likely becoming a major hurricane by morning. Melissa is expected to become a category 5 storm as it tracks slowly toward Jamaica, bringing catastrophic rain and wind impacts, in addition to storm surge. Landfall in Jamaica is expected Monday night or Tuesday morning, with Melissa near maximum intensity.

Melissa is rapidly intensifying

(NOAA/NHC)

A tropical storm this morning, Melissa is now a category 2 hurricane just southeast of Jamaica. It is clearly in the process of rapidly intensifying.

Melissa’s thunderstorms are wrapping into the center, and the storm is in the midst of rapidly intensifying toward a major hurricane. (Weathernerds.org)

All along, Melissa has had the scaffolding it needed to eventually wrap up into a monster storm. Dry air is not an issue. Wind shear was an issue, but it has since overcome that and it is no longer an issue at present. Reliable models are on board with an extended rapid intensification cycle lasting 36 to 48 hours. The National Hurricane Center explicitly forecasts Melissa to become a category 5 hurricane by tomorrow night or Monday. One key note conveyed by NHC senior hurricane specialist Philippe Papin on his personal social media this evening is that there is some chance that Melissa tracks a bit west-southwest tonight. If that happens, it provides a few extra hours from preparations in Jamaica, but it also increases the likelihood that Melissa will reach peak possible intensity in these circumstances.

We are witnessing what is really just a worst-case type scenario for Jamaica. I don’t want to say it’s THE worst-case scenario, as that’s a complex thing to define anywhere. But a slow-moving, rain-loaded high-end major hurricane potentially making a direct hit on an island nation is one of those things you dread ever seeing.

Almost all modeling tracks Melissa right into Jamaica in 48 hours or so. (Tropical Tidbits)

What’s just terrible about this is not just that it’s realistic that Jamaica could be hit directly by a category 5 hurricane, it’s that it comes after 48 hours of tropical storm or localized hurricane conditions and torrential rain. This combination of flooding and saturated ground multiplies the potential damage we could see by a fair bit and just translates into an awful experience for folks in Jamaica. Not to mention the storm surge that will accompany Melissa as it turns toward Jamaica Monday night. Torrential rain will also continue to impact Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula, the southwest Dominican Republic, and eventually eastern Cuba.

Potential for up to 40 inches of rain exists in eastern Jamaica. (NOAA/WPC)

We are looking at a devastating, catastrophic impact in the Caribbean. People will need help after this, and we will try to share some ways to help in the days ahead.

Painfully slow-moving Melissa on the verge of becoming a hurricane this morning

In brief: Melissa is on the cusp of hurricane intensity this morning as it continues to track west at a painfully slow rate of speed. Forecasts now favor a major storm turning north closer to Jamaica, which may lead to a direct hit on the island. Regardless, catastrophic rainfall will impact communities in southwest Dominican Republic, Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula, eastern Jamaica, and portions of southeast Cuba before Melissa exits into the Atlantic next week.

Melissa almost a hurricane

(NOAA/NHC)

Since yesterday, Melissa has continued to get its act together, and as of earlier this morning, the storm was very near hurricane intensity. It should get there sometime today.

Melissa has become much better organized and is beginning to feed off the exceptionally warm water residing under the storm. (Tropical Tidbits)

At times, an “eye” has tried to emerge as well, so Melissa has shrugged off most of what was ailing it earlier this week.

Melissa’s perilous track & strength

Because of the excruciatingly slow movement of Melissa, a couple changes have occurred today in the track forecast. First, most modeling now turns Melissa northward from due south of Jamaica. This means the odds of a direct hit on Jamaica by a major hurricane are now high, in addition to the several days of tropical storm conditions and torrential rain that will precede the worst of the storm. Even for a hurricane battle tested location, this will be a pushing limits of what is tolerable.

Virtually all Google Deep Mind ensemble members turn Melissa directly into Jamaica this upcoming week on its way out of the Caribbean. (Weathernerds.org)

Once past Jamaica, Melissa will likely make landfall in eastern Cuba, before tracking over either the southeast Bahamas or Turks and Caicos Islands. The islands south and east of about Exumas are probably at highest risk for severe impacts right now. From there, Melissa hauls out to sea, though folks in Bermuda should now be watching Melissa’s progress closely (though it will certainly be a less intense storm once that far north).

Over 80 percent of Google’s Deep Mind ensemble members bring Melissa to Cat 4 or 5 intensity, with some of the better performing overall hurricane models and consensus aides, firmly in the category 4 camp right now. Whether it is a 3, 4, or 5, the odds favor it being a major hurricane and perhaps a higher-end major at that as it barrels into Jamaica and Cuba. The storm should begin to weaken beyond Cuba due to land interaction and a more hostile overall environment. But even in the Bahamas, we could still be looking at a borderline major hurricane.

Powerful storm surge is likely in Jamaica and eastern Cuba as Melissa turns northward next week.

Catastrophic rainfall

Despite the intensity of the hurricane, the hallmark of this storm may well be how much rain falls, with totals of 30 inches or more possible in southwest Haiti and eastern Jamaica. Given how explosive the thunderstorms are east of the center, day after day of rain is likely in these areas.

Obscene amounts of rain are likely across Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula and in eastern Jamaica. (NOAA/WPC)

It is not hyperbole to say that this amount of rain will be catastrophic for these areas. Landslides, mudslides, and isolation for several days will all be likely in some communities. Those 30 inch (750mm) totals will be isolated in all likelihood and terrain driven. But the entire eastern half of Jamaica should see at least 10 inches of rain (250mm), which will cause widespread problems.

Don’t forget about southeast Cuba (easily could see 15 inches of rain (375mm) and southwest Dominican Republic which could see upwards of 20 inches (500mm). We are talking about a widespread flooding event across several different countries in the Caribbean.

Bottom line today

  • A major hurricane, quite possibly a high-end major hurricane will probably directly hit Jamaica by Monday night.
  • The storm will then make a direct hit on Cuba as a powerful hurricane and track through the southeast Bahamas as a borderline major hurricane.
  • Bermuda should be monitoring the future track forecast of Melissa.
  • Catastrophic rainfall will impact Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and southeast Cuba with upwards of 30 inches in a few spots. Mudslides, landslides, and complete isolation of some villages are all likely.
  • In many cases, severe flash flooding will commence 24 to 48 hours before the core of the storm hits in Jamaica and Cuba.
  • Along and near where Melissa tracks, significant storm surge is likely.

We continue to send our thoughts to these Caribbean communities that will be dealt another in a long history of bad storms.