Matt Lanza

Wild, windy weather in the Lakes, as winter returns and rain returns to Southern California for New Year’s

In brief: After a serious, prolonged warm stretch over Christmas, we’re back to somewhat more typical winter weather across the country. Powerful winds and heavy lake snows are impacting the Great Lakes, but more warm air is on the way in Texas. Southern California is in line for more rain over New Year’s as well, as Western U.S. snowpack levels sit in terrible shape this winter.

Whipping Great Lakes snow & wind

Winds have been the story across the country, along with some severe weather, and a significant winter storm in the Northern Tier. A potent cold front has finally reduced, if not outright ended the daily barrage of record high temperatures. Over the last 7 days, we’ve seen over 4,700 warm records compared to 55 cold records set across the country, according to NOAA.

Recent record temperatures have been skewed 85:1 to the warm side. (NOAA NCEI)

But that’s outta here. For now. Nothing about this incoming air mass is record-breaking, but it’s come in with a good bit of noise. We’ve seen power outages, wind damage, and heavy snow in the Great Lakes. Wind gusts have peaked since midnight as high as 75 mph in Buffalo and 50 to 70 mph in many other places between Lake Ontario and the Mississippi Valley.

Maximum wind gusts since Midnight around Lakes Erie, Ontario, and Huron. (NOAA)

Heavy snow will continue downwind of the Lakes, with 25 to 35 inches of additional lake effect forecast in the Southtowns down through Dunkirk off Lake Erie and between Sodus and the Tug Hill off Ontario. Blizzard conditions will persist in spots.

(NWS)

Across the border in Canada, we have numerous yellow and orange warnings for snow, general winter storm conditions, blizzard conditions, and even freezing rain in the Maritime Provinces.

Numerous warnings for winter weather in Canada. (Environment Canada)

Overall, a potent storm for the Great Lakes and Canada.

What’s next? More rain in SoCal, more heat in Texas

After this stretch of colder weather, it does look like we’re heading for another big warm up in parts of the Southern Plains by Friday. Record highs and near-record highs are already forecast in parts of Texas.

Friday looks quite warm across the western Gulf Coast and Southern Plains — again. (NOAA)

Additional record or near-record warmth may follow again next week.

Meanwhile, on the West Coast, it looks like more rain is headed for California, mainly Southern California. Showers kick off on Wednesday, peaking probably early Thursday morning, with lingering showers into Friday and a final cold front Saturday morning. The NWS has a “slight risk,” (level 2 out of 4) for parts of Southern California, including the LA Basin and mountains for later New Year’s Eve into New Year’s morning.

Rain totals of 1 to 3 inches in the LA Metro are expected between Wednesday and Saturday, with higher amounts in the mountains. (Pivotal Weather)

While this does not look like a major event, certainly it could be locally impactful, particularly with the heavier rain on New Year’s Eve night. For the Rose Bowl on Thursday, it looks damp but hopefully not ridiculously sloppy. Isolated heavier rain and some additional Sierra snow is possible on Saturday or Sunday in Northern California. More snow is needed. Too much of what has fallen lately in the West has been rain.

Western U.S. snowpack is middling at best. (USDA)

The only locations doing particularly well this winter are in Wyoming and Montana, and in most cases, those snowpack levels are normal to slightly above normal at best. Oregon, Utah, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico; they’re all struggling mightily.

Hopefully some additional storminess can combine with colder temperatures, but admittedly, it’s not looking great right now.

It looks to remain fairly warm in the West and Central U.S. over the next 2 weeks. (NOAA CPC)

Newsy Bits

Colorado River basin: We’re in overtime on negotiations on new managing rules to basically save the Colorado River and the states that rely on it. The federal government has started to put pressure on the states to reach a deal, with the Bureau of Reclamation set to release proposals to replace the river’s current operating rules. The current situation mapped out above plays very much into this, as a bad snow season could lead to radical changes to preserve Lake Powell and Glen Canyon Dam’s hydropower. The money quote? From John Entsminger, Nevada’s chief negotiator: “If you distill down what my six partners just said, I believe there’s three common things: Here’s all the great things my state has done. Here’s how hard/impossible it is to do any more. And here are all the reasons why other people should have to do more.” (States Newsroom)

Lake Powell: On the flip side of the coin… As drought and water demand slowly drain Lake Powell, Glen Canyon’s slow re-emergence is bringing back beavers and a robust ecosystem. Having finished “Desert Solitaire” earlier this autumn, this connected with me, given that most Americans don’t know how beautiful and thriving Glen Canyon was prior to the dam. (Inside Climate News)

Texas: $24 million from the State of Texas will go to Texas Tech University to expand and improve operational flood forecasting across the state, as well as the West Texas Mesonet. Two new sites have already come online in Kerr County, with more sites and even some radar data to be added. Overall, this is likely to make a big difference in how Hill Country and other parts of Texas monitor and react to flooding. (Texas Tech University)

Outer Banks: The endless battle of preserving beachfront to protect homes is getting harder and harder. In the Outer Banks, numerous homes were claimed by the Atlantic this year thanks to multiple passing hurricanes, high tides, rough seas, and a rising ocean. (Inside Climate News)

A quick little snowstorm impacts the Northeast, as record warmth looks to wind down

In brief: A snowstorm is on the way for parts of the Northeast, along with some ice in the interior too. This comes on the heels of a tremendous warm stretch this week across much of the country which led to the warmest Christmas on record in the U.S. However, the warmth will soon fade away as more typical winter resumes.

Northeast snow

En route to the Northeast? A bonafide winter storm. For some of the bigger cities, you’ve been in a bit of a snow drought in recent years.

CityLast winter with above normal snowfallTypical average snowfall
Boston2021-2249.2″
Providence2021-2236.6″
Hartford2017-1851.7″
New York City (Central Park)2020-2129.8″
Philadelphia2020-2123.1″
Baltimore2015-1619.3″
Washington, DC (National)2024-2513.7″

While DC had a (barely) above normal snowfall year last year, prior to that it had been 2018-19. So if you like snow and you live in the I-95 corridor, it’s been a rough stretch since the bounty of the early and mid-2010s. New York City is off to a fairly average start this season with just under 3 inches so far. Philly is the leader so far at 4.2 inches of snow. New England has seen a bit less but not too far off. Enter: tonight.

(NWS)

Snow totals should range from about 1 to 3 inches in southern parts of North Jersey to 4 to 8 inches up in Westchester and Fairfield Counties outside of NYC. Not to be outdone, some heavier totals are possible in the Catskills and southern valleys of Central New York.

(NWS)

Total snowfall for Syracuse, Utica, and Albany should be around 4 to 7 inches with higher amounts south and southeast and lessening amounts north.

Meanwhile, this will be a bit of a sloppy overall storm as warmer air remains an issue in spots, particularly Pennsylvania where up to 0.3″ of ice accretion is possible in parts of the Allegheny Plateau.

(NWS)

All in all, it looks like a moderately impactful winter storm in most cases, but definitely use caution when traveling, particularly across western Pennsylvania and in the Poconos and Catskills.

Record warmth to subside

Meanwhile, dozens and dozens of record warm temperatures were broken this week, including many this afternoon.

Each red dot with a circle indicates a location breaking a daily record high, with several spots breaking monthly record highs. (Coolwx.com)

Statistically, Christmas Day was the warmest Christmas on record nationally, and it was not particularly close. Spin it however you want, but this was a historic warm stretch this week across the country. The odds of these kinds of events will continue to increase as time goes on, thanks in part to extremely warm ocean waters, climate change, and urbanization. In fact, take note of the Gulf of Mexico water temperatures. They are, well, the warmest they’ve been on record this late in the calendar year.

Gulf water temperatures are sizzling. (Dr. Kim Wood/University of Arizona)

Today isn’t much better temperature-wise. Texarkana is sitting at 84 degrees, a new all-time December record this afternoon. The previous record was 83° in 1955. Shreveport has done the same. Numerous record highs are expected to fall tomorrow as well.

Another warm one tomorrow! (NOAA WPC)

But this warmth will be eradicated by the end of the weekend in most of the country. Note how the extreme warmth gets pushed out to sea by Monday. While there will continue to be some warmer temps in the West and eventually back in Texas, the East Coast and northern tier from the Dakotas through New England look chilly to start 2026.

European ensemble mean of forecast temperature anomalies into next week showing much colder temperatures for the East Coast, Northeast, Great Lakes, and upper Midwest. (Tropical Tidbits)

So, New Year’s week should not be incredibly warm like Christmas week has been. And so it goes.

Newsy bits

Hurricane risks: A paper published by scientists from the University of Georgia and UConn determined that any disaster relief workers responding to the Houston area in the wake of Hurricane Beryl in 2024 were exposed to unsafe heat conditions, particularly for those not acclimated to weather of this sort, 74 to 100 percent of the time in the first 72 hours post-storm. It highlights a crucial need to protect first-responding disaster relief workers in the aftermath of storms. (AGU)

Western Washington: In the wake of recent flooding, the region is going to face a long-term recovery project. Thankfully, disaster aid was approved at the federal level for the state, but for individuals, that aid has not yet been approved. The process will be arduous and challenging at times, and as we’ve noted here, it will require some conversations about how to manage some of these waterways. (High Country News)

Illinois: Another place, another increase in homeowner’s insurance premiums. Allstate announced a premium hike heading into 2026. State Farm did so earlier this summer. All the insurers are citing severe weather events and higher costs for repair and replacement as reasons for the hike. Like most of these problems. it’s complex. (Chicago Sun Times)

Atlantic Ocean: There has been a lot in the news in the last several years about the potential collapse of the AMOC, or Atlantic Meridional Ocean Current, which could drastically shift climate colder across the globe, as has been documented in the past. Ironically, an accelerated pace of global warming could trigger an accelerated cooling via that collapse. To be clear: A lot of unknowns exist. A lot. But it’s enough that Iceland at least has elevated this to a potential national security risk. (Reuters)

Serious flooding risk in Southern California on Wednesday, as much of the country gears up for one of the warmest Christmases on record

In brief: Flooding swamped parts of northern California yesterday, as attention focuses to a potential serious and significant flooding risk in the LA Basin in SoCal on Wednesday. Meanwhile, snow levels will drop enough to get some good snows in the Sierra. Elsewhere, it will be the warmest Christmas on record in many parts of the country with a pretty crazy warm weather pattern anchored over the Central U.S.

NorCal flooding

Atmospheric river moisture pounded parts of California over the weekend, delivering widespread rains generally north of I-80. 13 inches of rain was reported in the Sierra near Serene Lake, just west of Sugar Bowl Ski Resort (which is temporarily closed but expecting snow tomorrow night). Over 11 inches fell just south of Storrie, CA as well, north of I-80 in Plumas County. Same story for Strawberry Valley in northeast Yuba County.

Multi-sensor rainfall estimates over the last 48 hours in northern California with 10″+ in parts of the Sierra and heavy rain outside the north end of the Sacramento Valley. (NOAA NSSL)

In the Redding area, flooding was particularly bad. A fairly common feature (the Shasta County convergence zone) set up near or just north of the city last night. If you track the radar loop below, you’ll be able to see a pencil thin area of heavy rain that setup for several hours near “KRDD,” or Redding.

Radar loop from about 10 AM to 10 PM on Sunday of heavy rain impacting northern California. (College of DuPage)

This led to significant flooding in the Redding area, where only 1.44 inches officially fell yesterday. But the airport is just south of the city, so it missed the heaviest precip, which was probably closer to 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts.

48-hour rainfall totals in the Redding area. (NOAA)

Unfortunately, one fatality was reported from the flooding.

“High risk” for damaging SoCal flooding

Today, showery weather dominates parts of central and northern California. The next firehose of moisture will increase tomorrow, aimed at northwestern California to start, but dropping south into the Bay Area tomorrow evening and into SoCal tomorrow night and Christmas Eve morning. A second wave of storminess will follow Wednesday night and Christmas morning. These systems are going to cause some serious flood concerns in parts of California. Given the trajectory of moisture perpendicular to the west-east mountains in the LA Basin, this is going to dump a lot of rain. And it looks like minimal to no snow for the San Gabriels or San Bernardino Mountains during the peak of the precipitation.

A “high” risk, Level 4/4 for excessive rainfall and flooding is now posted for Christmas Eve in the mountains and burn scar areas of the LA Basin in Southern California. (NOAA WPC)

A high risk was issued this afternoon for Southern California for flash flooding for Wednesday. High risks are well correlated to flood damage, and the fact that they’re confident enough to update the day 3 outlook to high is slightly concerning. There are three main elements of flooding concerns: Urban flooding in the LA Metro, debris flow issues from burn scars, particularly the Eaton and Palisades fire footprints, and flooding due to torrential rain in the mountains and hills. Overall, this looks like a serious flooding setup in SoCal, and it should be taken very seriously.

Forecast rain totals over the next 5 days show over 6 inches in Los Angeles, and double digit rain totals in the mountains. (Pivotal Weather)

In addition to the heavy rain in Southern California, wind gusts over 40 mph are possible in some of the valleys and higher gusts up to 80 mph or so in the mountains.

And then there’s the snow. While the SoCal mountains will be dusted only at the end of the event, the Sierra will see snow levels down to 4,500 feet or so, which will allow for several feet of snow to accumulate, including perhaps as much as 4 to 8 feet above 5,500 feet.

A major snowstorm for the Sierra above 4,500-5,500 feet. (NWS Sacramento)

Precip will continue into Friday across the state with colder air. Overall, this will be the highest impact storm of the season so far in much of California.

Warmest Christmas ever for many

Well, the good news is that a little bit quieter weather is on the way after the system flushes out of Cali this weekend. Atmospheric river events may pick back up again toward New Years, starting up in the Northwest or British Columbia, then tracking southward with time again.

Meanwhile, the focus is on warm weather, record warm weather. Dozens of record highs will fall this week, with Christmas Day clocking in as one of the warmest on record in many parts of the country.

Forecast record or near-record highs on Christmas Day, with nearly 50 locations between the Southeast and the Rockies expected to see record warmth. (NOAA WPC)

Some of these records will be obliterated, including Wichita (record: 68° in 2019, forecast 76°), Childress, TX (record 77° in 1971, forecast 84°), and Kansas City (record: 67° in 1922, forecast 73°). In addition to record highs, nearly 70 locations are forecast to have their warmest low temperatures on Christmas morning on record. My favorite? Harrison, Arkansas, which is forecast to be 61° on Christmas morning, 12 degrees warmer than the previous record set in 2019 (records going back to 1892). Oklahoma City isn’t far off, expecting to break their warmest record minimum temperature by 10 degrees on Christmas morning. If you like your Christmas’s feeling like Christmas, try again next year. Or go to the Dakotas or New England.

Christmas morning lows across the country. (Pivotal Weather)

Newsy bits

Indonesia: A weird situation in southeast Asia, which has been battered this autumn by floods. A lot of humanitarian aid being sent to parts of Indonesia has either had to be returned or diverted elsewhere because of government issues. Suffice to say, people are not happy. (Asia News Network)

Washington State: Much like we saw in Alaska after the remnants of Halong earlier this autumn, federal money earmarked for disaster has been held up by the Trump Administration, including $182 million in Washington State for flood mitigation. This has been a bit of a theme of late. To be clear, this probably would not have helped with the recent flooding, but it serves as a reminder that vital work for mitigation around the country is being held up for ambiguous reasons. (NBC News)

Colorado River: We aren’t getting any closer to a deal on cuts to water in the differing, sometimes warring basins on the Colorado River. It seems like this is either headed for litigation, a federal directive, or some sort of temporary stopgap measure to buy a little more time. Either way, this does not bode well for anyone. (Inside Climate News)

Florida: A new paper published in AGU’s Geophysical Research Letters by a group of heavy hitting tropical meteorologists discusses the recent increase in Florida Gulf Coast landfalling hurricanes, while there has been a void of much action on the East Coast of Florida. The authors believe that the combination of climate mode variability from teleconnection patterns via El Niño/La Niña, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation can explain a significant amount of the Gulf variance but not the Atlantic Coast variance. Basically, a combination of bad seasonal and annual scale factors likely increased the odds of Gulf Coast impacts from tropical systems in Florida. (AGU)

U.S.: A preprint from scientists at Villanova examines geospatial risk of tropical systems in the U.S. As it turns out Harris County, TX (Houston) and Cameron County, TX (Brownsville) have the highest disaster risk from hurricanes in the country. Several counties in Florida, as well as much of New York City ranks high on this list, much due to socioeconomic factors, vulnerability, and resilience. (Research Square)

Wild weather in the West leading into Christmas, with warm weather dominating almost everywhere else

In brief: A major series of atmospheric river-driven storms will impact the West heading into next week, this time focusing more on California. The storm system that hits Tuesday night and Wednesday may be particularly significant there. Elsewhere, windy weather will have a hold on the Front Range & Foothills today in Colorado with dangerous fire weather possible. Warm weather is in control for most places for a good bit of the rest of 2025.

Western Weather is wild!

The last couple posts have been heavily policy-related matters (though I do want to point you to a later night update yesterday from Alan Gerard’s Balanced Weather), so let’s focus mostly on actual weather today, because the West is in for it. The firehose is turned on and will not turn off anytime soon. However, it will take aim at differing parts of the West Coast at different times. The heaviest precipitation will exit Oregon today and push into Northern California while weakening. This leads to a generally calmer day Saturday across the West. On Saturday night and Sunday, the moisture plume revs back up, aiming primarily at parts of southern Oregon and northern California, north of the Bay Area.

That continues Monday, with perhaps a slight downtrend in precip intensity. By later Tuesday and into Christmas Eve, it appears that a significant storm is going to deliver a multitude of hazards to California, including flooding rains, mudslide risk, debris flow risk, strong winds, and extremely heavy snow in the Sierra. This comes in two or three “waves” of action continuing into Christmas Day. Each one gets slightly colder, so snow levels will slowly drop through the event as well. Things reset next Friday and Saturday with a focus on British Columbia, before perhaps the next plume aims at the Northwest again on the following Sunday or Monday before New Year’s.

The key point: The most significant impact of this multi-day atmospheric river event will probably occur Tuesday night through Thursday, focused primarily on California.

The atmospheric river plume that hits California next week is currently forecast to be of high-end strong to low-end extreme intensity. (Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes)

You can see from the chart above that estimates atmospheric river “intensity” for the Bay Area that the intensity picks up today, Sunday, and Tuesday night into Wednesday, with the strongest of the event occurring then (pushing into category 5 level intensity). Let’s talk about total precipitation expected in California. Snow-wise, it looks like a solid 3-to-6-foot type snow event for the High Sierra, with the potential for higher or lower amounts depending on the exact setup that unfolds, but let’s go with that estimate right now as a placeholder based on the most recent data. Liquid-wise? We’re looking at perhaps as much as 15 to 20 inches of liquid equivalent in the northernmost Sierra and just south of the Shasta area.

Forecast rain totals from the Weather Prediction Center for the next week in California exceed 20 inches in some of the high terrain in northern California. (Pivotal Weather)

Expect a flurry of watches, warnings, and advisories to be issued in the next couple days, and expect travel across California to be impacted by this series of storms, especially Sunday into Wednesday.

Front Range & Foothills windstorm

Another round of particularly powerful winds will occur today across the West, with a focus on Colorado again for perhaps the most significant impacts. A combination of low humidity and wind gusts in excess of 70 to 80 mph will be possible primarily west of the immediate Denver and Colorado Springs metros. Red flag warnings are posted in these areas with extremely high fire risk.

A ‘particularly dangerous situation’ for damaging wind and wildfire risk exists today in the Foothills northwest of Denver. (NWS Denver)

Additional wind events seem likely on Sunday and Wednesday as well, though hopefully slightly less intense than today. Precipitation looks to be at a premium in the Front Range and Urban Corridor, with perhaps some good snows possible in northwest Colorado this weekend and later next week, especially for Steamboat and Winter Park.

Warmth continues

The rest of the country looks generally warm over the next 6 to 10 days, with average temperatures well above normal and a flurry of new record highs expected.

Winter cold will take a hiatus through about New Years unless you live in New England, the higher terrain of the West, the Pac Northwest, or Alaska. (NOAA CPC)

Will the pattern change at all as we roll into 2026? We’ll see. For now, just buckle up for a wild ride out West and a warm one for most everywhere else.

Newsy bits

Whatcom County, WA: In Washington, the governor toured damage in Whatcom County from the recent record flooding that occurred in that area. As is often the case, a lot of good things were said after local, state, and tribal officials met, but the real test will be if any of it leads to changes.

Fraser Valley, BC: Meanwhile, over the border in British Columbia, the province’s premier echoed frustration with Canadian federal government inaction on the repeated flooding that is occurring there due to overflow from the Nooksack River into the Sumas Prairie and eventually Fraser Valley. The premier also spoke to Washington’s governor. It appears any concrete relief is going to have to occur with cooperation between the U.S. and Canadian governments.

Denver & Phoenix: Denver and Phoenix have little in common, being on opposite ends of the Colorado River politics spectrum and in different basins of the river entirely. The two cities are scrambling to future-proof their water supplies as the basin’s crunch deepens and negotiators have missed recent deadlines on how to share a shrinking river that 40 million people depend on. Both cities are quietly embracing solutions, from reservoirs to grass removal and planning for the potential of water cuts.

Mount Dora, FL: An update on flood damage from a very localized major flooding event earlier this autumn that occurred north of Orlando.