Matt Lanza

Ernesto, now a hurricane pulls away toward Bermuda while dousing Puerto Rico with flooding rain

Headlines

  • Hurricane Ernesto delivering torrential rain and flooding to Puerto Rico.
  • Ernesto will continue to pull away north of the Caribbean, relaxing impacts there.
  • The hurricane will track toward Bermuda for late week and this weekend, coming very close and likely delivering considerable impacts there.
  • Beyond Bermuda, it appears there is an increasing risk for a direct impact in the Canadian Maritimes next week.
(NOAA NHC)

Hurricane Ernesto chugging away from the Caribbean

After moving through the Virgin Islands and to the north of Puerto Rico, Ernesto has become a hurricane today with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, the third hurricane of the season. While the hurricane winds will remain comfortably north of the Caribbean islands, there are many power outages and heavy rainfall remains a big problem in Puerto Rico, which is just getting dumped on today in the wake of Ernesto.

Heavy, flooding rains continue on Puerto Rico with multiple flash flood warnings in effect across the island. (RadarScope)

Upwards of a dozen flash flood warnings are in effect on the island, covering just about every corner. Rain totals are estimated around 8 to 10 inches in the south-central portion of Puerto Rico in the last 24 hours, with another 3 to 6 inches possible before all is said and done.

Rainfall estimates have approached 9 to 10 inches in southern Puerto Rico. (NOAA MRMS)

Considerable flash flooding and localized mudslides will remain a threat into late afternoon and evening in Puerto Rico and to a lesser extent the Virgin Islands.

Meanwhile, Ernesto is moving northwest at 16 mph, hauling its way away from the Caribbean. The next question will become how close it gets to Bermuda on Saturday. Ernesto split the gap between two high pressure centers over the Deep South and Atlantic Ocean, and it will follow that gap into a trough off the East Coast. The trouble starts to happen on Friday as Ernesto is moving northeast toward Bermuda. The trough is going to exit the picture, likely leaving Ernesto behind.

Ernesto gets left behind by the trough that exits without it. This will have implications for both Bermuda and Atlantic Canada. (Tropical Tidbits)

Ernesto will begin to slow down at this point, since it will lose the “pull” of the trough. This should allow it to lash Bermuda with heavy rain and gusty winds. Ernesto may be a major hurricane at this point, or at least close to it, so it will probably deliver some pretty meaningful impacts to the island, of course depending on exactly how close it comes.

Ernesto may then get “pulled” back to the northwest a bit by an approaching trough from the Great Lakes. It’s not going to make a hard left into the U.S. East Coast, but this will delay its exit out to sea. At the least, rough surf and rip currents will likely become an issue this weekend and next week on the East Coast. From a land impact perspective, this erratic movement has implications for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Instead of exiting into the open Atlantic, the jog back north or northwest could allow Ernesto to eventually smack into Atlantic Canada next week. The exact details and impacts of this are TBD, but suffice to say, I would be watching this closely in the Maritimes.

More to come on this. Meanwhile, the Atlantic continues to look as if a suppressed background state will halt tropical development risk for the next 7 to 10 days behind Ernesto. No additional storms are expected through next week.

Ernesto getting together while moving through the islands, an eventual threat to Bermuda

Headlines

  • Ernesto is moving through the northeast Caribbean as a moderate tropical storm.
  • It may strengthen into a hurricane as it approaches or passes the Virgin Islands and east of Puerto Rico.
  • Impacts to Puerto Rico will be mainly heavy rain and flooding on the south and east sides of the island.
  • Impacts could be a bit stronger for the USVI, Vieques, and Culebra.
  • Ernesto will then possibly take aim at Bermuda heading toward the weekend.

Ernesto making an effort to intensify

Tropical Storm Ernesto is working through the far northeast Caribbean this afternoon, strengthening in the process. Currently, Ernesto has 50 mph winds and is located just south of St. Kitts and Nevis.

Ernesto wiggling its way toward the Virgin Islands this afternoon (Tropical Tidbits)

Over the next 12 to 24 hours, Ernesto is going to track west northwest toward the Virgin Islands, Culebra, and Vieques. Hurricane Watches have been issued for the US & British Virgin Islands, as well as Culebra and Vieques. Puerto Rico remains under a Tropical Storm Warning, as are a number of other islands in the Leewards. Given the atmospheric conditions surrounding Ernesto, it’s possible that this could become a hurricane in the next 18 to 24 hours as it approaches and passes the islands east of Puerto Rico. By tomorrow afternoon. Ernesto will be north of the islands and conditions will improve.

In terms of impacts, the main threat is probably still rainfall.

Heavy rainfall will impact Puerto Rico and nearby islands to the east, with upwards of 8 inches and flash flooding a good possibility. (NOAA WPC)

Flooding is a good bet on parts of Puerto Rico, mainly on the south and east coasts of the island. Additional heavy rain may impact the US Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra. Lesser heavy rains will impact the British Virgin Islands and other portions of the northeast Caribbean. Obviously, wind will be a bit of an issue, especially north and east of where the center tracks, hence the hurricane watches for the islands just east of Puerto Rico. And rough marine conditions will continue in the northeast Caribbean through tomorrow.

Bermuda bound?

Beyond the Caribbean, Ernesto is likely to turn northwest and then northward, steering clear of the Turks and Caicos Islands, but tracking toward Bermuda. The threat to Bermuda is a potentially serious one. We can examine that closer in the days ahead, but at this point, suffice to say model agreement is good on a track that brings Ernesto very near Bermuda as a hurricane in about 4 or 5 days.

Ernesto is likely to be in the vicinity of Bermuda in about 5 days, with uncertainty in the exact track taking over beyond that point. (Tropical Tidbits)

There are some questions as to how strong Ernesto will get as it tracks toward Bermuda, with the current official forecast keeping it just shy of major hurricane intensity. Modeling has backed off a bit on the high end of intensity as well, but there is always a chance that Ernesto could outpace model forecasts in terms of intensity in the next few days. So for folks in Bermuda, it’s probably a good time to start reviewing your hurricane plans with Ernesto sending a pretty clear message this far in advance.

Beyond Bermuda, there are questions as to exactly how Ernesto is steered which could have implications for Atlantic Canada in time. We’ll review that in more details as we get into tomorrow and Thursday.

The rest of the tropics are quiet with no threats noted.

Impacts in the islands from Ernesto should be mostly manageable as it passes through

Editor’s note: PTC 5 is now Tropical Storm Ernesto, which has little to no impact on the discussion below, as this was expected today or tomorrow.

Headlines

  • Potential Tropical Cyclone 5 will slowly organize itself over the next 2-3 days as it crosses into the northeast Caribbean islands and Puerto Rico.
  • PTC 5 is expected to deliver mostly modest impacts to the islands, with gusty winds, rough marine conditions, and heavy rainfall.
  • As PTC 5 comes north in the Atlantic, it will strengthen and may ultimately threaten Bermuda.
  • Quieter conditions should continue behind PTC 5.

PTC 5 will slowly get itself together

Potential Tropical Cyclone #5 was declared on Sunday, which allows the National Hurricane Center to issue watches and warnings before a storm becomes an actual storm. In other words, we are expecting a tropical depression or tropical storm soon although it’s not there yet, but we need to get warnings out. Thus, the slightly cumbersome PTC language.

PTC #5 forecast track as of Monday morning showing a tropical storm in the islands and a hurricane to the north. (NOAA NHC)

Whatever the case, we are definitely expecting this system to gradually organize as it moves into the islands. If there’s good news today, it’s that models continue to slow walk development initially, despite the fairly warm water across the northeast Caribbean. So a slow transformation into a tropical storm is expected in the next 24 hours. By tomorrow morning, we expect Ernesto and its center to be just west of Guadeloupe. Tropical storm warnings are in effect between Guadeloupe and Puerto Rico.

It would appear on satellite that PTC 5 is battling a good deal of wind shear. It’s not quite consolidating, and while it has a lot of thunderstorm activity overall, it’s generally disorganized.

PTC 5 is loaded with thunderstorms, but at least on satellite it appears to be fairly disorganized, lacking the consolidation needed to be classified as a tropical storm at this point. (Tropical Tidbits)

Modeling suggests that over then next 24 hours or so we won’t see a whole lot of change to this. In that time, we should see PTC’s nascent center move into the northeastern Leeward Islands. While certainly a bit breezy and with some heavy rain, impacts there will probably fall short of anything too terribly serious. Around that time, we should begin to see PTC 5 begin to make a run toward a little organization as it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico heading into the 36-48 hour timeframe. This system’s size seems to make it unlikely to become a hurricane now as it moves into that area.

PTC 5 should only slowly organize as it moves past the Leeward Islands and into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. (Weathernerds.org)

So at this point all signs seem to indicate that PTC 5 will only slowly organize as it impacts the northeast Caribbean islands and Puerto Rico, staying under hurricane intensity until it gets comfortably north of Puerto Rico. The islands should again prepare for heavy rain and gusty winds, as well as rough marine conditions, but overall this looks like a mainly modest impact to these locations.

Rain totals from PTC 5 should be around 4 to 6 inches, though higher amounts are likely in portions of Puerto Rico and on Vieques. (NOAA WPC)

Beyond this point, PTC 5 will continue to likely curve northwest and northward, splitting the gap between high pressure over the Deep South and high pressure east of Bermuda. From here, we have two key questions: How strong does this storm get, and how close will it get to Bermuda? We can’t answer either one with a lot of certainty yet, but it’s pretty evident that this will be a very close call near Bermuda. We have a couple days to iron that aspect out.

In terms of intensity, the tropical models are all over the place, but they all show steady strengthening it appears.

Intensity guidance among the various models is very much all over the place, but in general shows steady intensification in the day 2 to 5 timeframe, suggesting PTC 5 will become a hurricane between the Caribbean and possibly Bermuda. (Tropical Tidbits)

The NHC forecast is a fine place to be right now, which shows PTC 5 on the cusp of major hurricane intensity by day 5. So because of all this, it would be important for folks in Bermuda to monitor the progress of PTC 5/Ernesto closely. We’ll keep you posted.

Beyond PTC 5, we continue to see the Atlantic basically shut itself down for the next 7 to 10 days. Don’t get too excited about that quieter period, but let’s just say during a hurricane season like this that has a lot going for it, that is a very welcome thing in August.

Invest 98L may stir up some trouble in the northeast Caribbean before likely turning out to sea

Headlines

  • Invest 98L is likely to develop in the next couple days as it tracks toward the northeast Caribbean.
  • Interests between Puerto Rico and Guadeloupe should be preparing for at least a tropical storm impact.
  • There is a chance that 98L could become a hurricane as well before it likely exits the northeast Caribbean and turns out to sea.

Invest 98L: A concern for the northeast Caribbean

We have been greeted this morning by a 90 percent chance of development in the Atlantic from now-dubbed Invest 98L.

Invest 98L is likely to develop in the next day or so as it tracks toward the northeast Caribbean islands. (NOAA NHC)

Looking at 98L this morning, it’s clearly slowly organizing east of the islands. That said, it’s a relatively large tropical wave, so this process is taking its time.

Invest 98L is spinning east of the Caribbean islands, but it’s only slowly organizing. (Weathernerds.org)

Relative to Friday, the expectations for 98L have not changed a whole heck of a lot: We still expect development as it comes toward the Caribbean, and interests in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should be monitoring the progress of 98L very closely.

Here’s what we know today:

  • Invest 98L is probably going to turn northwest and north and head into the open Atlantic after passing through the northeast Carribean.

Is there a chance it misses the exit ramp? Sure, but that’s not likely at this time. The odds of development are such that 98L is probably going to start to slowly gain latitude as it approaches the Leeward and Virgin Islands, followed by more rapid development after it passes. This should be enough for it to find its way “into” the rather strong trough off the East Coast. The forecast map below is the European model forecast for Tuesday, with a strengthening 98L or Ernesto likely to brush across the northeast Caribbean islands and into the trough off the East Coast.

The upper pattern should allow a strengthening tropical system to be “captured” by the trough off the East Coast around midweek, causing it to turn northward and off the East Coast. (Tropical Tidbits)

In a low likelihood situation, 98L would not develop much and could end up “trapped” in the northeast Caribbean, eventually forced back west or west-southwest by high pressure over the Deep South. That would change the equation entirely, but at this point there is little to no model support for that outcome.

In general, the hope is that once this passes the Caribbean islands, it will (mostly harmlessly) go out to sea

  • Invest 98L is likely to begin wrapping itself up *as* it moves into the northeast Caribbean islands.

Where it really gets tricky is what 98L/Ernesto’s intensity will be as it moves into the northern Leewards, Virgin Islands, and off Puerto Rico. At this point, it seems reasonable to say that a developing tropical storm will be moving through those areas by later Tuesday and Wednesday. Could this quickly intensify into a hurricane? I would not rule it out.

There is moderate to strong oceanic heat content in the area 98L is expected to track in the next couple days. This could help fuel steady strengthening as it moves into the northern Leeward Islands or Virgin Islands. (University of Miami)

The system is going to track through some decent areas of oceanic heat content in the next couple days. This, coupled with low wind shear should provide ample fuel for strengthening as it comes through. The biggest limiting factor in development of this system may be some dry air and lingering Saharan dust in the area of the disturbance as it wraps up.

  • The track into the northeast Caribbean will be tricky in terms of exactly what islands are hardest impacted.

Because of the track and turn of 98L as it comes west, the timing will be everything in determining which islands see the worst impacts from this system. Interests from Guadeloupe into the Virgin Islands should be watching this very closely and currently preparing for at least a stronger tropical storm impact. If 98L really wraps up quickly, then Puerto Rico and the USVI may not see much in the way of direct impacts. If the strengthening is more steady or slower, the odds of impacts there increase. We should hopefully get a little more clarity on this tomorrow, but I’d encourage that whole strip from Puerto Rico into about Guadeloupe to prepare accordingly.

Hopefully once past the islands that’s it for this one, but we’ll keep an eye on things.

More to come? Maybe not.

Behind 98L, there aren’t a whole lot of seedlings for development for now. The Euro says that in about 8 to 10 days we have another opportunity. It would appear that an extremely hostile background state in the atmosphere is going to track across the Atlantic over the next 10 to 14 days, with a lot of suppression and sinking air. This usually works against tropical development, so it’s possible we end up seeing a later August lull this year. I would caution that we’ve seen systems kind of materialize in the day 6 to 12 timeframe this season that didn’t necessarily appear like strong candidates initially. While it should be quiet for a bit, just keep that in mind.

I’ve already seen comments about this season possibly being a bust, which is understandable. But keep in mind that we still have about 90 percent of a typical hurricane season in front of us from an intensity standpoint, and between Beryl, Debby, and probably soon Ernesto, this will end up being one of the most intense starts to a hurricane season on record. Sometimes it’s quality, not quantity.