Strong winds will bring some risk of localized power outages across the Central U.S. and increased fire danger in the Southern Plains as a fall storm winds up today.
Tropical update: Nada
With Sean back down to tropical depression status, there’s not a whole lot else to discuss for the next few days. I would not be shocked to see the low pressure system develop that’s presently bringing rain and locally gusty winds to the coastal Southeast. A couple tornadoes were reported earlier this morning near Tampa, and there are a couple tornado warnings ongoing as of this writing. All this will race east across the Atlantic, however, and poses no further risk to land as it exits.
Rain will exit the Southeast today, but not before leading to some severe weather in Florida. (College of DuPage)
There is some potential for another lower-end Cabo Verde type system in 5 to 7 days, but at this point between that and a likely quiet Caribbean for a bit, there’s no reason to sweat anything out on land.
A wind-ripped Thursday in the Central U.S. brings some fire danger and severe weather
Wind is the story today for the U.S., with a deepening low pressure system over the center of the country driving a pretty healthy wind event. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph or higher are likely from about South Dakota into western Nebraska, northeast Colorado, much of Kansas, northeast New Mexico, and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
Wind gusts over 50 mph are possible anywhere you see orange on the map above, from eastern South Dakota south into parts of New Mexico and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. (Weather Bell)
We get a handful of these events per fall, winter, or spring so it’s not too unusual. But it may have impacts ranging from localized power outages to tree damage to wildfire risk. The “critical” area of fire danger risk today is from southwest Kansas, across the Panhandles into northeast New Mexico. The combination of drought, low humidity, and winds will combine to enhance that risk.
“Critical” fire weather danger is forecast today from northeast New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and up into Kansas. (NOAA SPC)
Wind advisories, high wind warnings, and red flag warnings are posted in many of these regions for today.
With a storm like this, you usually get some severe weather, and this may be the case today in Nebraska and Kansas in particular. There’s a modest tornado risk today but more likely, we’ll see hail or damaging winds take prime billing later today as the low pressure area works east. Tornado risks are highest in Nebraska.
A slight risk (level 2/5) for severe weather exists today across most of eastern Nebraska. (NOAA SPC)
A slight (level 2 of 5) risk of severe weather is posted today. Heavy rain will also be possible, especially across South Dakota, where as much as 3 or 4 inches of rain may fall between Pierre and Sioux Falls. Enhanced precip may also occur in the Rapid City area and Black Hills, though a chunk of that will fall as snow.
As much as a foot or so of snow could fall in the Black Hills of South Dakota from this storm, but as the NWS graphic above notes, it’s complicated! (NWS Rapid City)
Maximum snow is expected northwest of Mt. Rushmore in the Black Hills, where as much as a foot or so is possible. Snow will also occur in the mountains of Colorado and Wyoming and in parts of northwest Nebraska.
The flood risk will shift east tomorrow, when Chicago, Milwaukee, and Madison all fall into a slight risk of excessive rainfall (level 2 of 4), as 1 to 3 inches of rain are expected. More on that tomorrow.
Hurricane Lidia will make landfall near Puerto Vallarta late this evening as a moderate hurricane before weakening and merging in with a bunch of other tropical moisture that will quickly transit the Gulf toward Florida.
Tropics: Lidia makes landfall in Mexico tonight, combines with other systems to bring rain to the Gulf & South
Hurricane Lidia will approach Mexico later this evening as it intensifies, likely making landfall on the coast very near Puerto Vallarta.
A complex pattern in the Pacific and Gulf will feature Invest 93L (unlikely to develop) lifting north and then northeast, the remnants of Tropical Storm Max combining with that, and eventually Hurricane Lidia’s remnants streaking in a similar direction, close behind. (Weathernerds.org)
Lidia will bring heavy rain in Jalisco, southern Sinaloa, and Nayarit in Mexico and storm surge to areas south of where it comes ashore. Hurricane Warnings are in effect on the coast of Mexico from Playa Perula to Escuinapa. The hurricane-force winds only extend out about 25 miles, so the worst wind will be felt near the eventual landfall point not far from Puerto Vallarta. Lidia will rapidly weaken once inland in Mexico, but its remnant circulation and moisture will get drawn into a conglomerate of systems in the western Gulf of Mexico that will rocket east toward Florida.
Hurricane Lidia will make landfall near Puerto Vallarta before rapidly weakening once inland. (NOAA NHC)
This mashup includes Invest 93L in the Bay of Campeche and the remnants of Tropical Storm Max which made landfall yesterday. As this family of outcasts speeds east across the Gulf Wednesday, it will bring a burst of rainfall from South Texas, into the open Gulf, and across extreme southeast Louisiana and Florida.
Rainfall from the tropical trio through Friday morning will be highest offshore, but 1-3″ will be likely in North Florida, South Georgia, southeast Louisiana, and perhaps on the coast of Alabama or Mississippi (Pivotal Weather)
This rain looks fairly manageable overall, with about 1 to 3 inches in the Rio Grande Valley and Corpus Christi areas, New Orleans, much of the Florida Panhandle, and the southern half of Georgia. Isolated areas will see more. There will also likely be a pretty sharp gradient on the northern fringe of this precipitation that perhaps limits amounts a bit in San Antonio, Houston, Baton Rouge, Montgomery, and Atlanta.
Rain totals in Texas will be highest south of Corpus Christi. (Pivotal Weather)
Aside from this sloppiness, the Atlantic tropics are quiet in terms of land impacts. Invest 92L continues to look like a late season Cabo Verde system, likely to develop over the next few days. But it will not impact land. There’s a little bit of model percolation in the Caribbean in about 10 to 12 days, but I am not ready to jump aboard that train just yet.
Central & Eastern U.S. storm to bring heavy rain and a whole lotta wind late this week
I presume most of the country’s attention with respect to weather late this week will be on the significant storm that is going to develop tomorrow night into Thursday over the Central Plains. This storm will bring a variety of weather to much of the northern half of the country.
Rainfall/flooding
In terms of rain, we’re looking at a slight chance of flash flooding on Thursday from northern Nebraska and southeast South Dakota into northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. On Friday, that expands east to include Chicago, Madison, and Milwaukee east to western Michigan.
Thursday and Friday will see a slight chance (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall in the Plains and Midwest, which will expand into Pennsylvania and New Jersey on Saturday. (NOAA WPC)
By Saturday, that will move toward the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, including, again, New York City.
7-day national rain totals show 1 to 4 inches from the tropical moisture in the Gulf and another 1 to 4 inches from Nebraska and South Dakota to Michigan, as well as centered on New Jersey. (Pivotal Weather)
Expect about 1 to 4 inches from western Michigan west through Nebraska and South Dakota. Another 1 to 3 inches is possible in portions of eastern Pennsylvania and the New York City metro. Much of this region only needs an inch or two of rain over 6 to 12 hours to get flash flooding started. So I would expect to see flood watches get posted at some point in many areas.
Severe weather
With a powerful area of low pressure developing on the Plains, you almost always get some kind of severe weather. For Thursday that will probably be in Kansas and southeast Nebraska. On Friday that potential may moderate some as the storm comes east, but I still wouldn’t be shocked to see some reports of severe weather.
Thursday’s severe weather forecast calls for a slight (level 2 of 5) risk from about Kansas City north and west, with hail and strong winds being the main concerns. (NOAA SPC)
Strong winds and large hail are probably the main concerns, along with a non-zero tornado risk. There will be only a moderate amount of warm, moist Gulf air available so that may cap this event a little bit. Either way, expect to see (and hear) rumblings about that this week.
Strong winds
Expect to see a wide swath of 30 to 50 mph wind gusts across Wyoming, the Central Plains, and the Midwest as this storm marches east. The strongest winds will probably be in the Texas Panhandle, western Kansas and Nebraska, and portions of South Dakota.
Forecast wind gusts may exceed 40 or 50 mph with this storm over a wide swath of the Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. (Weather Bell)
Strong winds will march east as well, but they will probably ease up a bit once to the Ohio Valley and East.
Snow
Lest we ignore the powder! Snow will likely fall in Colorado and Wyoming (and perhaps Utah) as this system unfolds. Some snow may even fall in the Black Hills as well. Winter Storm Watches are already posted for a number of higher elevation spots from Wyoming into western South Dakota.
It’s getting to be that time of year! We’ll have more on this for you through the rest of the week.
The main land impacts this week from the tropics will come via two eastern Pacific systems that will hit Mexico, eventually spreading precip across the Gulf Coast region of the U.S.
Tropical weather: Pacific moisture and a late season Cabo Verde system
In terms of land impacts, the main story will be Tropical Storm Lidia in the Pacific. Lidia will likely become a hurricane before making landfall between Puerto Vallarta and Mazatlán. To the south, Tropical Storm Max will come ashore later today in Guerrero just west of Acapulco.
Tropical Storm Lidia is expected to become a hurricane as it makes landfall in Mexico this week, likely between Puerto Vallarta and Mazatlán, while Tropical Storm Max will come ashore in the state of Guerrero just west of Acapulco. (Tomer Burg)
Lidia will be capable of producing flash flooding and mudslides in portions of Jalisco, Sinaloa, and Nayarit in Mexico, as well as a substantial storm surge in the Islas Marias and on the Mexico coast near and south of where it makes landfall.
As Lidia and Max track across Mexico, moisture will arrive in South Texas and eventually spread east across the Gulf toward Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. In addition, a developing low pressure system in the Bay of Campeche may act to focus some of this rain with a low-end chance of tropical development before it rockets east. Heavy rain is possible in that corridor, with as much as 2 to 4 inches from Corpus Christi to New Orleans to south Georgia and much of Florida.
Total rainfall is expected to be highest from South Texas (just off the map here) to south Louisiana, Florida, and South Georgia. (Pivotal Weather)
Localized flash flooding will be possible from this, but in general, this will be mostly welcome rainfall. We’ll watch the track of all this over the next day or two to see how this evolves (whether it’s further south, more consolidated, etc.) but a decent soaking is expected in these areas.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, things look quiet for now, but Invest 92L in the deep Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands is likely to develop this week. This is not an area where you’d historically be looking for tropical systems in mid-October. Every so often one can form, and that may be the case here. The good news is that it’s expected to turn out to sea rather quickly and be of no impact to land.
Invest 92L is expected to track west before turning northwest over the open Atlantic as it becomes a tropical storm.
Elsewhere, the Atlantic looks fairly quiet for now, with the Caribbean and Gulf under control for the next 7 to 10 days or so.
Annular eclipse outlook
The first of two major solar eclipses over the next 6 months occurs this weekend, as an annular eclipse tracks across much of the southwestern United States. In April, there will be a total solar eclipse that tracks over most of the eastern half of the country into Canada.
Click to enlarge an image of the path of Saturday’s eclipse at left and a cloud cover forecast from the European model at right. It appears the best areas to view the eclipse will be in Texas and Utah. (NASA/Pivotal Weather)
An annular eclipse occurs when the Moon passes in front of the Sun, but does not block it entirety, leaving a ‘ring of fire’ in the sky. It is crucial to use solar eclipse glasses when viewing the Sun during the eclipse!
In terms of the best spots to view the eclipse, our money is currently on Texas and Utah. We’ll fine tune things as we get closer. But it appears that a storm system will spread clouds over much of Oregon, which is where the eclipse will first be seen. Conditions may improve once you get into Nevada, and they look solid right now in Utah and the Four Corners (I assume nearby Monument Valley will be a popular spot for this). New Mexico is a bit of a crapshoot right now, as some models indicate high clouds. Once in Texas, things should be clear, although high clouds may spoil things in the Rio Grande Valley or Corpus Christi areas. We’ll provide an update on this for you again later in the week!
Philippe will bring a variety of weather to Maine, Quebec, and Ontario this weekend as it transitions to a non-tropical storm and offers up heavy rain, gusty winds, and even some snow in parts of Canada.
Philippe destined to follow Lee’s footprints
Tropical Storm Philippe is a little stronger today as the center approaches Bermuda. Wind gusts over 50 mph were reported on the island this morning. The forecast remains mostly on track, with Philippe essentially being a smaller, less intense version of last month’s Hurricane Lee.
Philippe is in the initial stages of extratropical transition, where it goes from a tropical entity (a storm that derives energy from warm water) to something akin to a nor’easter (a storm driven by jet stream processes and one that will acquire fronts). Storms are displaced east of Philippe’s center today. (Weathernerds.org)
Philippe will likely become post-tropical by tomorrow and transition to a strong nor’easter-type storm as it moves toward the Gulf of Maine or Bay of Fundy this weekend. It is expected to hook back to the north and west across Quebec and eventually stall out on the south end of James Bay, bringing rain and even some snow to Quebec or portions of interior Ontario.
As Philippe transitions to an extratropical storm it will hook back to the north and west across Quebec and settle near the border with Ontario. (Tomer Burg)
The National Hurricane Center will not be issuing tropical products for Philippe as it moves into Canada and New England, indicating that while it will bring impacts they should be managed at the local level. I think a very plain language translation of this means that, while a notable storm, it is not expected to be an especially damaging one. Marine impacts should primarily be gusty winds and large swells. We’re in a lower phase of the tide cycle right now so that helps mitigate that risk a bit.
Rain totals will peak in interior Maine, portions of the Adirondacks in New York, and interior Quebec, where as much as 5 inches of rain is possible. Click to enlarge. (NOAA WPC)
But the main concern with this will likely be tomorrow night and Sunday with locally heavy rain. Total rainfall may exceed 3 or 4 inches in spots, especially in interior Maine and Quebec (north & west of Quebec City, Montreal, and the National Capital Region). Grounds are still fairly damp, so flash flooding is a distinct possibility in spots. Snowfall would be most likely along the Ontario/Quebec border and north of a Sudbury-North Bay line in Ontario.
Watching the Gulf next week
We are starting to see some vague model agreement on next week’s setup with Pacific moisture and tropical noise tracking across Mexico and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico.
The upper level map suggests that whatever happens in the Pacific may get pulled across Mexico next week and into the Gulf, maybe as a lower-end storm, maybe as just a bunch of added moisture. (Tropical Tidbits)
The pattern in the Pacific is such that we should see a bit of a weird entanglement between Tropical Storm Lidia, Invest 99E (the disturbance off the Mexican coast), and an upper level trough in the atmosphere over the Southern Plains and Southeast. How so? In some way, either Lidia or 99E or both will get “pulled” northeast toward Mexico by the upper trough, which will then allow that cluster to track into the Gulf of Mexico. From there, it should probably track northeast or east-northeast across the Gulf toward Florida or the eastern Gulf Coast. What will it be? I don’t know. Probably not a large storm; probably something lower-end. But it could end up being a rain and/or severe weather producer in the Gulf waters or near the coast (or ultimately in Florida). The timing of all this would be late next week. We have a few days to watch this, and we’ll have an update this weekend and on Monday.
Elsewhere, the NHC continues to outline an area deep in the Atlantic that could develop, but it is unlikely to impact land if it does so.
Winter is coming
In addition to the potential snow from Philippe’s remnants in Canada this weekend, we have freeze warnings now populating across the Plains. Freeze watches and warnings extend from northeast Colorado and central Kansas into the Dakotas and portions of western Minnesota.
NWS watches and warnings as of Friday morning shows freeze warnings for more of the Dakotas, Nebraska, and portions of Kansas, Colorado, Wyoming, and Minnesota. Red flag warnings indicating fire risk due to drier air will be posted in the Deep South. (Pivotal Weather)
Low temperatures this morning are in the 20s in spots in Montana but will expand over a wider area on Saturday morning. A warming trend will follow for a time early next week.
Lower Mississippi River dryness
We continue to see the situation in the Lower Mississippi River basin look worse. For Louisiana salt water intrusion to halt or reverse, we need rain upstream; something that can basically flush the salt out. The forecast upriver from New Orleans does not look great, with Memphis likely to see a declining water level over the next 7 to 10 days and most of the Ohio Valley seeing less than half an inch of rain over the next week.
Water levels at Memphis remain near their all-time record lows set earlier this year. (NOAA)
The water level at Memphis this year preliminarily set a new record of -11 feet, and the level by the end of the forecast above has them down to about -10.6 feet again. Hopefully some more meaningful rain can fall around mid-October in the middle Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys, but much more is needed to alleviate the expanding problems in Louisiana. Thankfully at least, the projections for how far north the saltwater wedge gets have slowed considerably.
