Matt Lanza

An update on the Texas Panhandle fires and late week severe weather in the South while winter continues in parts of Canada

Welcome to Tuesday! Today, we’ll touch on the Texas wildfire situation, severe weather chances in Texas and the Deep South this week, a series of storms in the Canadian Maritimes, and update the Sierra snowpack situation.

Headlines

  • Rainfall will remain a bit sparse in the Texas Panhandle with some additional fire weather risk down the line.
  • Severe weather continues to look like a decent potential in the Deep South and along the Gulf Coast late week.
  • Several storms to impact the Maritime provinces of Canada with a wintry mix and wind.
  • Weekend blizzard allows Sierra snowpack to shift above normal in many places.

Texas wildfire update

Wildfires continue in the Texas Panhandle, with the infamous Smokehouse Creek fire still only about 15 percent contained as of this writing. (Update: That is now 37 percent contained as of 9 AM Tuesday)

Map of Panhandle fires as of Monday. Slow progress continues on containment efforts. (Texas A&M Fire Service)

Rainfall will continue to likely be at a premium in West Texas and the Panhandle over the next 7 to 10 days, with only about a quarter-inch or less expected in the region, mostly from a passing system later this week (that could once again also bring snow to the region, mainly north and west of Amarillo).

Forecast precipitation over the next 7 days shows the extreme northern Texas Panhandle receiving around a quarter-inch or so of rain and/or snow, with higher amounts north and east of there. Areas south of I-40 see little to no rain. (Pivotal Weather)

It is likely that we’ll see drought expand into this region eventually. It technically remains mostly drought-free, but one would assume that will change. Thankfully, in terms of wind, much of this week looks fairly benign in the region. But by Thursday or Friday, a combination of stronger winds and lower humidity could again raise fire danger. At this time, the strongest wind doesn’t look too alarming, but any sort of setup now with minimal forecast rain can be of concern. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined Thursday as having a 40 percent probabilities for a critical fire weather day.

Parts of the Texas Panhandle and southeast New Mexico will have potentially critical fire risk on Thursday. (NOAA SPC)

We will see how this further progresses through the week or if any rain or snow can drift farther south.

Severe weather & heavy rain from parts of Texas into the Southeast Thursday-Friday

The storm system coming out of the West later this week continues to look like it will produce the chance of strong to severe thunderstorms from Texas into the Deep South Thursday into Friday. Part one will develop east of the Texas Panhandle on Thursday afternoon with a slight risk (level 2/5) for severe storms across interior Texas.

A slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather is in place for Thursday, including the DFW Metroplex. (NOAA SPC)

Thursday’s risk includes Dallas and Fort Worth. There are still some uncertainties on the exact timing of some features that will drive severe storms. This especially muddies the risk of tornadoes. But hail and strong winds will probably be a bit more possible on Thursday evening across North Texas south through parts of Hill Country.

That slides east for Friday, with storms possible across East Texas, southern Louisiana and close to the Gulf Coast in Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.

Severe storms will be possible on Friday just north of the Gulf Coast between East Texas and southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. (NOAA SPC)

Like Thursday, there are uncertainties that exist in exactly how robust the storm itself will be and how much Gulf moisture gets dragged north. So this forecast is fluid. Higher risks may be farther south even in the highlighted area.

In addition to severe weather, heavy rain and a slight risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall exists in much of the Deep South for Friday. Total rainfall may be 4 to 6 inches near and south of Atlanta.

Rain totals in excess of 5 inches will be possible through Friday in parts of Georgia and Alabama, especially just south of Atlanta. (Pivotal Weather)

This could cause localized flooding issues in the South.

Canada update: Maritime snow and ice

Many of our readers come to us from Canada thanks to our coverage of Hurricane Lee last year. I just wanted to provide a quick update on Canadian weather today. The Prairie provinces are cleaning up after a healthy snowstorm this past weekend and yesterday. Moving forward, the attention will shift to the east coast with the Maritime provinces likely seeing storminess in the coming days.

Ice accumulation chances look highest in the Northumberland Shore of Nova Scotia and southeast PEI. (Pivotal Weather)

One storm system moves in later today and tomorrow, followed up by a stronger system Thursday into Friday. Another system is possible early next week as well. Each of these will deliver rain, a wintry mix, and wind. Ice totals through the weekend are shown above as forecast by the GEM (Canadian) model. Snow totals should be in the 15 to 25 cm range for eastern New Brunswick, PEI, Cape Breton Island, and southern Newfoundland.

What will be interesting is if Monday‘s storm can indeed form as shown on some modeling. If we look at the European ensemble model, which is running the model 51 different times to give a spread of outcome possibilities, you can see a pretty healthy difference among ensemble members as to the placement of the surface low pressure system on Monday.

European ensemble members have a spread of possibilities with the next storm on Monday, with the potential location ranging from southeast New England to south of Nova Scotia. (Tomer Burg)

Some show it near New England, while others are over New Brunswick or south of Nova Scotia. So there’s inherent uncertainty here. This will matter in terms of precipitation type and wind experienced in the Maritimes early next week. Not the strongest storm of the year, but something to keep an eye on.

California snowpack recovers to near or above normal

The National Weather Service in Sacramento published a snow total map yesterday highlighting some of the big ticket totals in the Sierra. Sugar Bowl wins the prize with 126 inches reported. Soda Springs along I-80 at Donner Pass recorded 116 inches.

Snow totals through yesterday morning for California and northwest Nevada, where as much as 10 feet of snow fell. (NWS Sacramento)

As expected, this storm helped the Sierra snowpack — a lot. The water in the northern Sierra snowpack went from 92 percent of normal to 111 percent. The central Sierra saw even more help, going from 77 percent of normal to 104 percent of normal. The southern Sierra saw good improvement as well and now sit just shy of normal.

The snow water equivalent in the Sierra snowpack in California now sits near or above normal after the weekend blizzard. (California DWR)

Some additional improvement will occur in the northern half of the region, but precipitation is expected to slow down considerably for the next 2 weeks after that.

Sierra snow slowly winding down, while rain ramps up in the South this week

Good Monday morning! It’s still snowing in the Sierra. Let’s start your week off right with a look at what’s happening weather-wise.

Headlines

  • Periods of snow continue in the Sierra, with recovery proceeding slowly. Blizzard warnings are discontinued and replaced with winter storm warnings, with more manageable snow expected this week.
  • Heavy rain will fall on the Southeast via two systems, one tomorrow and another around Friday.
  • Severe weather risks are outlined in the South for Thursday and Friday in particular.
  • A more localized risk of excessive rain and flooding exists in New Orleans and Southeast Louisiana today and tomorrow.

Sierra slammed

The snow continues in the Sierra today, though the blizzard warnings of the weekend have been dropped. Now, winter storm warnings are in effect into Wednesday morning. Moderate winter storm impacts are expected to continue today and tomorrow in the northern Sierra in particular.

Expected additional snow over the next couple days is most notable north of Lake Tahoe, with another foot or two possible at high elevations north of I-80. (NWS Sacramento)

In terms of what has fallen. According to their websites at about 4 AM PT this morning, Heavenly has seen nearly 70 inches, Homewood has close to 90 inches at the summit, and Northstar is at 70 inches. Most snow reports have not been updated since yesterday morning. I would expect to see another batch released later today.

We will also get another update on the Sierra snowpack today or tomorrow, which should show the central and northern Sierra at or above average I would assume. The southern Sierra did fairly well too, but they were also running a bigger deficit, so we’ll see if they can jump past normal.

Liquid totals easily surpassing 4 to 6 inches in the mountains will help the snowpack, while the lower elevations in Northern California got beneficial rainfall as well. (Pivotal Weather)

Videos have been circulating on social media showing a bunch of vehicles stuck in the Sierra. I-80 is still closed between Colfax, CA and the Nevada state line this morning. Snow “sluffs” (or loose snow on the top of the snowpack that produces a less intense avalanche) also occurred on US-50 yesterday, closing the road. If you’re like me, you’ve also been watching SoCal, in particular Big Bear Lake and the eagle cam. It’s been a rough few days for them, especially with the wind. There have been But apparently, eagle chicks are expected any day now, hopefully in better weather conditions.

Southeast soaking and late week severe weather risks

Rain is en route to the Southeast this week, with one round tomorrow into Wednesday and another one coming Friday into Saturday. There will be a healthy amount of rainfall piling up, with totals in excess of 5 inches possible by the weekend for parts of Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina.

Birmingham through Atlanta, and Upstate South Carolina will see the bulk of the rain tomorrow and late this week. (Pivotal Weather)

Additionally, southeast Louisiana is in a little bit of a higher risk for heavy rainfall today and tomorrow. A slight risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall is posted with localized totals in excess of 6 inches possible in that area.

Southeast Louisiana is in a slight risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall today and tomorrow. (NWS New Orleans)

Will these storms come with any severe weather? As of right now, there are some marginal risks outlined by the Storm Prediction Center through Wednesday, but nothing beyond that. However, days 4 and 5 (Thursday and Friday) are now highlighted with 15 percent severe risks, the equivalent of at least a slight risk (level 2 of 5). More importantly, the Storm Prediction Center typically refrains from handing out risks on days 4 through 7 unless they’re convicted. In this particular case, model agreement is pretty solid on potential severe weather from East Texas into the Deep South on Thursday into Friday.

Multiple days of severe weather are possible to close the week out in the South. (NOAA SPC)

The severe threat may expand into Georgia or the Carolinas on Saturday, but as the SPC notes in their discussion this morning, there is a fair bit of model disagreement on enough details to keep a formal risk out of their forecast. We’ll see how this evolves through the week.

Mountain snow in the West and watching another potential fire weather day in the Texas Panhandle Sunday

Today’s headlines

  • Snow continues to pile up in the Sierra, while heavy snows will expand into the interior West as well through the weekend.
  • Numerous record highs possible this weekend in the Plains and Midwest.
  • Strong winds and drier air will produce critical fire weather days in the Texas and/or Oklahoma Panhandles Saturday and Sunday.

Western snow will pile up

The multi-day snowstorm in the Sierra is underway with blizzard warnings and travel advisories hoisted in much of that area.

Magnifeye.com has a good display of various CalTrans webcams along I-80 (and elsewhere), and you can see road conditions are snowy. (Magnifeye.com)

Additional snow will be measured in feet as the storm continues today and tomorrow. Conditions should begin to improve in the Sierra on Sunday with less intense and sustained snow. Snow showers and snow levels down to perhaps as low as 1,000 feet will continue Sunday and possibly Monday as well.

Additional snowfall through Monday morning will continue to blast the Sierra and Lake Tahoe. (NWS Reno)

The combination of wind and mountain snow across the West will continue to be an issue into the weekend. The NWS winter storm severity index maxes out at extreme levels in Wyoming and major levels in parts of the Wasatch in Utah.

Over the next 3 days, you can see the extreme impacts expected in California. But localized extreme winter storm impacts will occur in Wyoming with widespread major impacts, along with some major impacts expected in Utah’s Wasatch. (Pivotal Weather)

Overall, just a really impactful and beneficial storm for Western U.S. snowpack and water concerns; a little rough in the near term but good news over the longer term.

Record warmth overtakes the Midwest — again

What goes down, must come up. With a deep trough in the West helping to aid storminess and snow, there is a subsequent broad ridge over the Central and Eastern U.S. this weekend. That setup is one that is conducive to warm weather, and indeed numerous locations are forecast to come near record highs on Saturday and Sunday.

The upper air map around 20,000 feet this weekend shows a dip in the jet stream in the West (trough) and a ridge in the East, which will help to amplify warm weather this weekend. (Tropical Tidbits)

A few notable ones will occur in Wisconsin with Wausau expected to be 68 degrees on Sunday and La Crosse at 74 degrees. The previous records at those locations on Sunday are 52° and 66° respectively. Admittedly, the Wausau record is extremely low hanging fruit, but even La Crosse is an impressive record considering the previous mark was set in 1894.

Record warmth will once again overtake Wisconsin and much of the Midwest this weekend. Sunday’s forecast highs are shown here. (Pivotal Weather)

Both La Crosse and Wausau have already set or tied 6 to 7 record high temperatures so far this year. Add another one or two to that now. We’re probably not done with the abnormally warm weather either.

Fire weather risks increase again in the Texas Panhandle

The Texas Panhandle saw snow yesterday, just two days after the hellacious wildfire that has consumed over a million acres and become the largest wildfire in Texas history. That moisture was modest at best, so it did not do much other than help accelerate some containment efforts. Unfortunately, this weekend will bring another round of windy, dry weather to the Panhandle, and that could produce a critical fire weather day on both Saturday on Sunday.

Additional critical to locally extreme fire weather risk will overspread the Texas Panhandle this weekend. (NWS Amarillo)

Conditions should not be quite as extreme as were witnessed earlier this week, but the ongoing fires plus risk of any new fire starts with resources stretched to their maximum makes this weekend a more vulnerable one than usual for this region. While rainfall is above normal for the winter season in this part of Texas, that isn’t saying much given that “normal” is pretty low already. A storm or two would go a long way toward helping the situation in the Panhandle.

Rainfall over the next 7 days in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles looks minimal. (Pivotal Weather)

Unfortunately, at least over the next week or so, any rain chances look paltry at best in this region. Hopefully we can turn the corner later this month.

Sierra snow, late season lake effect snow, more Plains fire danger, and more really warm weather to usher in March

Today’s headlines

  • Cold front off the West Coast about to kick off Sierra snow blitz.
  • Heavy lake effect snow just north of Syracuse today.
  • Multiple days of strong winds move from the West into the Plains bringing elevated fire danger once again.
  • More record warmth possible this weekend in the Midwest, Lakes, and Canada.
The U.S. weather map today shows a powerful cold front on the West Coast that will set off the Sierra snowstorm, a few showers and even some wintry precip in Texas, and heavy lake effect snow in Central New York. (NOAA WPC)

Sierra snow blitz

As noted yesterday, blizzard warnings are in place now in California from near Mt. Shasta south to about Sequoia National Park, encompassing most of the Sierra.

A slew of watches, warnings, and advisories are posted all over the West. (Pivotal Weather)

Upwards of 4 to 8 or 5 to 10 feet of snow are expected in the highest elevations, with snow levels down to about 4,500 feet today, 2,000 feet tomorrow, and perhaps as low as 1,000 feet on Saturday. While a lot of the worst of the weather will occur in the backcountry, there will be plenty of folks impacted by this long-duration storm. Travel looks to be severely impacted heading over the Sierra between Sacramento and Reno. In addition, winter storm warnings are posted in Nevada, with perhaps as much as a foot of snow in Reno. Lake Tahoe will be hammered by this one, with 5 to 6 feet expected.

The impressive snowfall forecast for the Sierra showing over 100 inches in spots between today and Sunday. (NWS Reno)

This is both good and bad. Obviously, an extreme winter storm, even in a winter-durable place like the Sierra is capable of causing severe problems. On the flip side, the Sierra snowpack needs a boost. Snow water equivalents, or how much liquid is in the snowpack have been running a deficit for most of winter. Still, 75 to 90 percent of normal isn’t the worst we’ve seen in California in the last 5 to 10 years. This time last year, these values were 150 to 200 percent of normal.

The Sierra snow water equivalent (how much water is in the snowpack) is running a deficit currently, with about 75 to 90% of normal values. (California DWR)

What will this storm do to the snowpack? Probably send it sharply above average. Liquid totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected within all this snow. We’ll check in on this again next week.

Elsewhere on the winter weather front, a burst of lake effect snow will impact Upstate New York today, with some heavy snow north of Syracuse, perhaps over a foot.

Heavy lake effect snow will setup shop just north of Syracuse and perhaps into the Mohawk Valley of Central NY today. Over a foot is possible between Syracuse and Oswego. (NWS Binghamton)

Winds to expand across the West; fire weather risks in the Plains

On the map farther above, you can see a lot of wind advisories and warnings in place for the Western United States. Not only will this storm bring heavy snow to parts of the West, it will also bring strong winds (hence the blizzard warnings in California). You can see the forecast for today has 50 mph or stronger winds in a good swath of Nevada (as well as southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho).

Strong winds, especially in Nevada, southern Oregon, and southwest Idaho have prompted numerous alerts out West. (Pivotal Weather)

The strong winds have also prompted red flag warnings for fire danger in Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa today. By Saturday and Sunday, higher fire danger returns to the Texas Panhandle, which is still dealing with active fires in the wake of Tuesday. The snow and rain in that area will certainly help today and may help allow for Sunday to be less of a critical fire weather day than Tuesday was. Still, it’s not quite enough to dramatically reduce the risk by the time we get to Sunday.

The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting Sunday as a potential serious fire weather day in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles once again. (NOAA SPC)

We’ll keep an eye on this, as that part of Texas really took a hit on Tuesday.

More serious warmth for the Lakes and Midwest into Canada

Warm weather will continue to absolutely dominate the story across the Great Lakes and Midwest. It will actually be warmest relative to normal in Canada, with portions of Quebec averaging 12 to 16 degrees above normal for days 3 to 7.

The temperature anomaly forecast for days 3 through 7 continues to show raging warmth from the Midwest into Canada, with the warmest temperatures compared to normal focused on Quebec. (Tropical Tidbits)

Record temperatures will be in jeopardy. La Crosse, WI for example is forecast to be 73° on Sunday. The record high is 66°, set back in 1894. Some other Midwest and Lakes locations will threaten some pretty old records by later in the weekend.