Matt Lanza

Winter’s grip lingers in the North, while the East Coast sees yet more rain

Today, we take a look at what’s happening with our two main storms over the next few days; one will bring severe weather to the South and snow to the North, while the other will bring heavy rain and heavy snow to parts of the Northeast and Canada.

Headlines

  • Heavy rain tomorrow in South Florida.
  • Heavy rain Saturday for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
  • Heavy snow again in the interior Northeast up into portions of eastern Canada this weekend.
  • Heavy snow North and severe weather possible South Sunday-Monday.

An East Coast soaking

There will be two areas to watch in the Eastern U.S. this weekend. The first is in South Florida tomorrow, where heavy, soaking rain will likely fall south of Alligator Alley. For Metro Miami, this probably won’t be a huge ordeal, but there will likely be some areas of street flooding. Southwest of there is where the heaviest rain will occur. Fortunately, it’s a relatively sparsely populated area. Rain will move in toward morning and continue off and on, probably escalating in intensity through the afternoon or evening.

The heaviest rain tomorrow into Saturday morning will be south and west of Miami, where as much as 6 inches or more will occur near Flamingo. (Pivotal Weather)

The second area to watch will be in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Saturday where yet another round of rain is expected. For those of you scoring at home, the Northeast has had quite a bit of rain since last year. So far in 2024, the region is running around 120 to 175 percent of normal rainfall.

Most of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast have seen above normal rainfall so far in 2024. (High Plains Regional Climate Center)

The ground is pretty saturated heading into spring, and this next round of rain will add anywhere from 1 to 3 inches more to the mix, likely leading to some street flooding in spots. Minor river flooding is also a possibility in a few locations.

Heavy rain on the order to 1 to 3 inches or a bit more is expected from the Mid-Atlantic into Southeast New England, adding to a 2024 surplus. (Pivotal Weather)

There is potential for yet another system later next week in this region as well.

More snow in the Northeast, too!

In addition to the rainfall impacts of this system, heavy snow will be possible for portions of northwest New England and up into eastern Canada, particularly toward the Gaspe Peninsula in Quebec and perhaps northern New Brunswick. For most of Atlantic Canada, this will likely be a rain and gusty wind event.

Major winter storm impacts are likely from interior Maine into portions of New Brunswick into the Gaspe Peninsula of Quebec. (Pivotal Weather)

There are still some things to sort out, but winter’s not done yet here.

As we noted yesterday, winter ain’t over in the Central U.S. either! We continue to see high odds of plowable, significant snowfall for portions of Minnesota, particularly from the Twin Cities south and west.

Significant snow and wind are likely from Minneapolis/St. Paul and points west and southwest. (NWS Twin Cities)

There remain high odds that the Dakotas will also cash in on this one with at least 6 to 12 inches of snow. A wintry mix would be possible on the southern fringe of all this, from Nebraska into southeast South Dakota and perhaps Iowa or southern Minnesota. An impressive, active late March weather pattern.

Severe weather chances Sunday-Monday

We got an update today from the Storm Prediction Center on next week’s severe weather risks in the South. Things are generally unchanged for Sunday in the Southern Plains with an axis of severe storms possible from Kansas through Texas. A new area was highlighted for Monday in the Deep South.

Severe outlooks for Sunday and Monday show a chance for severe storms in the Southern Plains Sunday and the Deep South/Mid-South Monday. (NOAA SPC)

The first day of storms on Sunday will probably initially be some isolated strong to severe storms; where you’d typically see a couple tornadoes try to develop. But that should quickly transition into more of a “linear” type squall line and damaging wind/hail threat. On Monday, with some of the better Gulf moisture in place over the Lower Mississippi Valley, we could see a slightly better chance at severe storms, including supercells and/or a few tornadoes in that area. I think Monday has more risk than Sunday right now to be a more impactful day, but as always, we’ll see.

More severe weather chances may have a chance to emerge later next week, but nothing currently looks concrete in nature.

A look at Sunday and Monday’s severe weather factors and the extension of winter in the Northern Plains & Upper Midwest

Today, we want to offer up a quick update on next week’s severe weather chances, as well as a look at prolonged winter weather in the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains.

Headlines

  • Severe weather risk Sunday and Monday looks somewhat limited and confined to the Southern Plains and perhaps the Mid-South or Deep South.
  • Two winter storms will bring snow to the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains; one tomorrow and the other with the Sunday/Monday storm.

Just how serious is early next week’s severe weather risk?

Next week continues to look like a slightly more active one across the country, with some severe weather possible. The Sunday/Monday timeframe in particular has stood out for awhile now for that potential. And indeed, the Storm Prediction Center has now highlighted portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas for severe weather risk on Sunday.

A 15% severe weather risk was introduced today for day 5 (Sunday) for portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. (NOAA SPC)

One of the reasons to argue against significant, widespread severe weather early next week is tomorrow and Friday’s storm that travels along the Gulf Coast and amplifies off the Southeast coast. That system emerges off the Southeast coast on Saturday morning before amplifying a bit over the weekend and meandering just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

An animation of available atmospheric moisture and surface pressure shows that as a storm deepens off the East Coast, it limits how much Gulf moisture is involved in the early week severe weather risk. (Tropical Tidbits)

From the animation above, you can see that the shaded values representing precipitable water in the atmosphere, or how much available moisture there is expected to be is blunted somewhat by dry air on the backside of the storm off the East Coast. So despite a vigorous storm forming in the Lee of the Rockies, it still may not be enough to really push the needle up in terms of moisture, or what would otherwise be a pretty serious severe weather pattern.

All that said, given the intensity of the storm emerging off the Rockies, there should still be enough for a severe threat, just perhaps more localized and/or suppressed than we would otherwise see. For now, the Storm Prediction Center continues to advertise predictability as “too low” for Monday. We’ll continue to watch, but the Southern Plains seem most prone to it right now for Sunday, with some migration eastward to the Mid-South or Deep South on Monday.

Making up for lost winter in the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains

The Northern Plains saw a rather benign winter this year. The 13.5 inches of snow in Bismarck for December through February was in the lower third of winters historically. It was worse in Minneapolis, which saw their 9th least snowy winter period, with only 11.1 inches of snow from December 1-February 29th. For Bismarck, they’ve only had a bit over an inch of snow this month. Minneapolis has seen a trace of snow. But we’re going to make up some ground over the next couple days. The first storm arrives tomorrow evening, bringing a general 3 to 6 inches with higher amounts from northeast Montana into Wisconsin.

Snow forecast totals over the next 48 hours with the first storm. (Pivotal Weather)

A second storm, the same one that will help bring some severe weather to the South will deliver another round of snow to the North. This one may be a bit more potent. A wide swath of 6 to 8 inches of snow is possible in the same general areas with this one Sunday into Monday. This storm could even linger into Tuesday in spots. The trick with this storm will be how much mixing with rain or sleet we see in those areas. That could cut down totals a bit for the Twin Cities. But there will likely be an axis of heavier snowfall that could occur in western Minnesota or eastern South Dakota.

A view of the potential for 6 inches or more of snow with the Sunday/Monday storm in Minnesota. (NWS Twin Cities)

Whatever the case, a storm with more snow for the Twin Cities and the heaviest snow west and southwest of there is likely Sunday into Monday. One disappointing aspect of this storm is that as you roll into Canada, the snow forecast drops off a good bit.

Drought is pretty severe in western Canada, particularly in Saskatchewan and Alberta into northern BC and the Northwest Territories. (Environment Canada)

They desperately need moisture up there, particularly after last year’s catastrophic wildfire season. Unfortunately, these storms will do little to help the areas most in need.

As we March toward hurricane season, where do things stand this month?

As we’ve done since January, here’s our monthly update on some of the key factors we can look at ahead of hurricane season. We advertise ourselves as being hype-free, and we continue to want to keep folks grounded ahead of this hurricane season. But it’s becoming increasingly difficult to objectively look at things without concluding that the upcoming hurricane season could be a very active one.

Headlines

  • El Niño continues to slowly erode away in the Equatorial Pacific.
  • La Niña development continues to look plausible, if not likely by August or September, a feather in the cap of an active hurricane season forecast.
  • Atlantic Ocean sea-surface temperatures remain excessively warm virtually everywhere that matters.
  • We are likely to see some very active hurricane season forecasts get released in the coming weeks.

El Niño’s demise: It continues

Since last month, we’ve seen further declines in the sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific region that defines El Niño and La Niña.

A view of Equatorial Pacific water temperature anomalies from the surface (top) to 450 meters below (bottom) showing continued gradual erosion of El Niño. (NOAA CPC)

We’re now explicitly colder than normal in the far eastern Pacific, though still warmer than normal across the majority of the basin. So, El Niño is not dead yet, but it’s weakening steadily. This continues to fall in line with predictions that suggest we fall out of El Niño conditions in the key “3.4 region,” which is essentially most of the left half of the image above, by June or so. The chart below is the European Center’s forecast for ENSO 3.4, a proxy for El Niño, and you can see this month that about 85-95 percent of individual ensemble members suggest cooler than average SSTs or straight up La Niña conditions by August.

La Niña conditions continue to look likely by the time we get to August or September. (ECMWF)

Again, we are in the midst of the “spring predictability barrier” for forecasting El Niño and La Niña, meaning that historically, we’ve struggled to nail the forecast in the springtime. But, given the typical progression of strong El Niño events such as the one that’s fading and the current state of the tropical Pacific, one would assume the odds are stacked in favor of La Niña development by late summer.

This continues to imply that atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic for the peak of hurricane season will likely become increasingly favorable for storm development.

Atlantic Ocean SSTs: Continuing to rage warm

I think we can keep this section pretty brief. It does not take a meteorologist to look at this map of current Atlantic SST anomalies and conclude that the entire main development region (MDR) of the Atlantic, the Caribbean, and Gulf are very warm.

This is a very warm map of mid-March sea surface temperature anomalies. (Tropical Tidbits)

If anything, things look as favorable or more so than they did a month ago. There is plenty of warm water available.

For the Gulf, I tell people not to panic yet because it’s a lot more prone to changes as we get closer to hurricane season. It can swing more based on weather changes as we head toward summer. We’ve seen an alarmingly warm looking Gulf for several consecutive springs now, but it tends to moderate some by summer. I think the Gulf is just warming earlier than normal, so it says less about peak hurricane season than the rest of the Atlantic basin might imply. In other words, because of climate change and other factors you should expect a warmer than normal Gulf in springtime now. The Gulf will probably end up warmer than normal during hurricane season as well, but the hope is that it won’t be quite to the degree above normal it is right now. The rest of the Atlantic? It’s a little absurd for this point, and it does raise concerns if you extrapolate it out into hurricane season.

Putting it all together: A busy season is increasingly likely

It’s still early, very early. But there are clear signals emerging here that strongly favor an active hurricane season. As we get outlooks in the coming weeks, I just want folks to be prepared for the fact that they may end up being forecasts of impressive numbers given these factors. Most forecasts last season predicted an active one in the face of a rapidly developing El Niño. If the SSTs are similar this summer and we transition to a less hostile atmosphere, that virtually guarantees that this season’s forecasts will be big.

One large caveat: This says nothing right now about who might be impacted by storms this season. No one can tell you that with any level of consistency or high confidence right now. If we have 100 storms and they all end up out at sea, it was still a really active season! But few people would have suffered from it. So an active season does not necessarily mean an active season for you. But it does give us some pause and it should encourage you to prepare this year, especially if you’re one who tends to try to ride through the season on hope, luck, or a prayer. I think this is a good opportunity to prepare for a hurricane season just in case. More to come.

Chilly temperatures in the Central and Eastern U.S. give way to perhaps some severe weather risk by the weekend

First off, sorry for being away all last week with some severe weather and a big thumping snowstorm in the Rockies. It was spring break week in Texas, and my family headed to the Northwest, or Southwest if you’re reading from Canada. Spent some time in Seattle and Vancouver, and the weather went from wet to sublime. A beautiful part of North America. But it’s good to be back in the saddle. Fortunately, we have a relatively basic week ahead.

Headlines

  • Cool temperatures dominate the Eastern 2/3 of the country this week, with frost and freeze conditions in parts of the South.
  • Two more delightful spring days in the Pac NW.
  • Severe weather looks isolated and confined to the Gulf Coast or Florida this week for the most part.
  • Potential for a more significant storm and subsequent severe weather next week in the Central U.S. or Southeast, but details are sketchy right now.

Eastern chill, Western warmth

For the eastern two-thirds of the country, the theme this week will be cool weather. We’ve got some solid cool weather expected up in the Great Lakes and Midwest, with what I’d deem “lesser cold” in the South.

Temperatures this week will average below normal east of the Rockies and above normal in the Northwest and much of California. (Tropical Tidbits)

That said, the only place I can find that’s expected to close in on a record low is Lakeland, Florida on Wednesday morning, with a low of 45°, just off the record of 43° from 1956. Meanwhile, Miami is forecast to get close to 90 degrees today, which is the previous record set in 2003.

Still, this setup will be enough to produce freeze conditions in a lot of places where the growing season is underway, mainly in the Deep South, which is blanketed by freeze warnings tonight.

Freeze warnings (purple) are posted from northeast Texas through southern North Carolina, almost to the Gulf Coast in spots across the South. (Pivotal Weather)

Meanwhile, the West is enjoying a stellar early spring stretch. Seattle hit 74 on Saturday, a new record, followed by a record tying 71 degrees yesterday. Back to the 60s there today. Portland hit 76 on Saturday, 75 yesterday, and is forecast to hit 76 today, which would actually be the first record high in this stretch.

High temperatures across Oregon today will test records in spots like Portland before a cooldown arrives for midweek. (Pivotal Weather)

The Pac Northwest will get one more day of stellar weather tomorrow before clouds, rain, and cooler temps return for midweek.

Severe weather next week?

On the severe weather front, it looks relatively benign this week, with perhaps one day tomorrow with an isolated severe risk in Florida and then another chance at it Thursday or Friday from the Gulf Coast into Florida. With cool air dominating things this week, a relatively suppressed storm track will follow, keeping most of the country quiet-ish.

The same cannot necessarily be said for next week, however. It appears that we’re going to get a significant storm developing off the lee of the Rockies. From there, it will track east or northeast, which should prime the Central US or Southeast for a chance at strong to severe storms.

Operational European model depiction of the forecast development and track of a strong storm system next Sunday through Wednesday in the Central U.S. Forecast details will change between now and then, but this could produce severe weather for the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley. (Tropical Tidbits)

Exactly how this unfolds is TBD, but I think we could see the severe threat begin as early as Saturday or Sunday and become more notable by Monday, hopefully winding down Tuesday. As of now, the Storm Prediction Center has not highlighted anywhere in their day 4 to 8 outlooks, citing low predictability. And indeed if you look at that map above, notice how there is also a storm system off the Southeast coast while this is happening. Situations like this can complicate how much Gulf moisture (a really necessary ingredient for widespread severe weather) ends up flowing north. I think we will see this change somewhat between now and then, with a lean toward severe weather risk, but confidence in details is far too low to pin down at this point. We’ll check back in on this Wednesday.

Hurricane season check-in tomorrow

Since it’s a quiet week, we’ll dive into hurricane season again tomorrow. We’ll take a look at where ocean temps stand this month and see if anything has changed with regard to the emerging possibility of La Niña. It remains far too early to say anything conclusive about the upcoming season, but we’ll check in on where we stand compared to last month.