Matt Lanza

Invest 92L a minor threat to the Southeast and some Eyewall housekeeping

In brief: Today we tackle Invest 92L, a minimal threat for the Southeast. We also have some important housekeeping to address, and we also have a quick update on some horrific flooding in parts of Central Texas overnight.

First, some housekeeping

We are going to begin this morning with some housekeeping regarding The Eyewall. Eric and myself, along with Dwight Silverman, have been discussing the future of the site. A lot of you have reached out to request ways to support our work beyond just reading, and we have (to this point) resisted that, other than various small sponsorships last hurricane season. And we are grateful for the interest many potential sponsors have shown this year too! However, we are going to try something else this year: subscriptions.

To be abundantly clear, our daily content will remain free, never paywalled, and that is not going to change as long as we operate this site. So, forever. This year, however, we will give readers who wish to support the site the option to do so at a modest cost, as well as a premium option for people who want a little bit more access. We will have more information on this soon.

The first step in this process is to migrate our email newsletter over to the Substack platform. If you currently subscribe to The Eyewall via email, your email should roll over to our Substack without you having to do anything. We understand a few people may have various concerns about the Substack platform, and some of the content posted there by other writers. If you decide to unsubscribe from emails, we understand. But the benefits of this route outweigh the potential costs. The primary issue is that WordPress caps our email subscribers, and the process to manage an account is not user-friendly. For a site with a limited budget such as ours, this is the best way to ensure the continued delivery of an email newsletter with our content. We will still continue to post here at The Eyewall.com, but updates will not be sent via email from here.

Also: Nothing at all is changing with Space City Weather. So for our Houston readers, our site, email, and annual fundraiser is not changing! This only applies to The Eyewall.

Our target date for this migration of The Eyewall newsletter to Substack is Monday, July 7th. We hope that this will offer us the flexibility to do more things, offer more options, more content, and a better overall user experience as time goes on. Thanks for your support!

Invest 92L

First, apologies for a couple days of lapse. Your primary author has been juggling family priorities the last couple days. Let’s get into this. First off, we now have Invest 92L. It’s sitting off the Southeast coast.

Invest 92L looks rather robust this morning, but despite the serious thunderstorm coverage, there’s not a whole lot of apparent organization yet. (Tropical Tidbits)

While it looks fairly impressive on satellite, underneath all the thunderstorms there is not a whole lot of apparent organization to this. That said, we will find out more later as hurricane hunters fly into the system to investigate. I think we could briefly squeeze a depression or low-end tropical storm out of this, but it’ll be close. Thankfully, it’s one of those where despite the classification, the impacts should be the same. We expect that this will migrate to the north over the next day or so, and it will eventually come ashore in the Carolinas before lifting north and east and out to sea.

92L will come ashore in the Carolinas and then exit quickly out to sea. (Tropical Tidbits)

The main threat from 92L will be locally heavy rainfall. The Carolinas look particularly prone to this where 1 to 4 inches of rain could fall near the coast. Not to minimize any threat, but there are currently not any flood watches posted. Still, localized flooding is a possibility with this in those areas. Thankfully, threats up the coast look limited as well.

The five-day NOAA rainfall forecast. (Pivotal Weather)

One other item to watch: Rip currents. Always a hazard but especially with the beaches *packed* this holiday weekend. Please use caution while in the water and always swim with a lifeguard present if that’s possible.

Beyond 92L

Nothing yet. It looks quiet for the time being.

Catastrophic Texas flooding

I want to close with one other major weather story you may hear about. Here’s what I wrote this morning at our Houston companion site, Space City Weather.

As noted yesterday morning by Eric, the forecast changed rather abruptly. And yesterday’s storms, while fairly quick movers, hit with some punch. Thankfully they did, as we saw instantaneous rain rates as high as 4 to 6 inches per hour in spots! Rainfall varied overall, with as much as 2 inches or a bit more in northeast Harris County and about a quarter-inch in western Harris County.

On a more serious note, parts of Hill County have seen some severe rain overnight. South-Central Kerr County is estimated to have received as much as nearly a foot of rainfall. This has led to flash flood emergencies there and along the Guadalupe River. The river at Hunt, TX is approaching 30 feet, beyond the 1987 flood event at that gage.

Historic flooding on the Guadalupe River in Kerr County. (NOAA NWS)

Downstream in Kerrville, they aren’t expected to hit the 37 feet of 1987, but it still looks to be a top 3 flood. Meanwhile, San Angelo saw around 8 inches of rain, with over 12 inches just north of the city.

Some of the pictures and stories from along some of these rivers, particularly the Guadalupe are pretty awful. We are hopeful that the warnings were received in time and that the human toll from this event will be minimal.

Northeast Gulf disturbance will probably be mostly a rainmaker

In brief: We take a look at the northeast Gulf disturbance that may try to develop this weekend, but regardless it will be a rainmaker for the Gulf Coast and Florida. We also look at the latest on the hurricane satellite and proposed NOAA budget debacles.

Welcome to July. We’ve all survived month 1 of hurricane season. Only 5 months to go.

Northeast Gulf disturbance risk

The NHC has nudged up the odds of development to 30 percent today for the projected disturbance along a dying cold front in the northeast Gulf or southwest Atlantic.

30% odds of development between the northeast Gulf and southwest Atlantic this weekend. (NOAA/NHC)

The only meaningful change I’ve seen in guidance today has been to basically shift the risk a little more to the Atlantic side. In fact, it almost looks like we get two disturbances out this mess next week, one that comes west or southwest and another that drifts around Florida and into the Atlantic. In fact, if you watch the European operational model loop below, showing “spin” (or vorticity) at about 10,000 feet above our heads, you can see how a chunk of the disturbance actually breaks off and drifts west, while the primary disturbance slides (or meanders) to the east.

European model 700 mb vorticity view from last night showing the main disturbance off Florida, with a secondary “piece” drifting west across the Gulf. (Tropical Tidbits)

The westward, weaker one will probably struggle because a.) it’s too close to land and b.) the air in the western Gulf isn’t exactly expected to be loaded with moisture as high pressure sits over the western two-thirds of Texas.

(Tropical Tidbits)

The easternmost disturbance is probably what I’d focus on for development chances, but even with that one, they don’t exactly look super bothersome. Most of the European ensemble members don’t develop this in any appreciable fashion. The ICON and European AIFS AI model, last year’s big breakouts don’t do much with the Atlantic system.

(Weathernerds.org)

Bottom line: 30 percent seems like a fine place to be right now. Any potential development probably has a low ceiling, with the highest odds of development shifting more into the Atlantic today. Still, because it’s the Gulf and it’s hurricane season, we’ll continue to monitor things.

One thing is for sure: Heavy rain is likely in Florida. While the heaviest and most persistent rains will be confined to the Gulf Coast of Florida, where upwards of 4 to 7 inches is possible, the rest of the state will see a bit of a pickup in rain chances as well. Gradually, flooding could become part of the issues here as we head into next week.

Rainfall forecast for the next week. (Pivotal Weather)

Aside from this one, there are no other Atlantic tropical concerns.

Pacific Hurricane Flossie

A quick note on Hurricane Flossie in the Pacific. Fringe impacts along the west coast of Mexico should be gradually winding down into tonight as Flossie pulls northwest and eventually away from the coast.

(NOAA/NHC)

Flossie is now expected to become a major hurricane as it pulls away before falling apart well off the coast of Baja late this week.

Satellites and budgets

Semi-good news, and very, very bad news today. The good news is that the satellite sounder we’ve been discussing since last week, a key cog in the hurricane observations and forecasting process was granted a whole additional month of service by the DoD, letting it go until August 1st. Hopefully we can get this extended to November 1st, but we’ll see.

Secondly, and in much, much worse news, the official NOAA budget request was sent over to Congress yesterday. Because I don’t want to be accused of being biased, all I will say here are two or three things.

First, all you need to read about this topic has already been written. Alan Gerard tackled it last night in eloquent, nuanced fashion. Michael Lowry discussed the hurricane angle more specifically this morning.

Second, here’s the deal. American has been the undisputed global leader in weather research in recent decades because of the investments we have made in research and development. We have a major research base that produces tools that forecasters (like me!) can use when rubber meets the road. These tools save lives and protect property and make us an otherwise safer, more informed nation. We don’t often get surprised by weather like we did 50 to 100 years ago or more. This budget being sent to Congress is a disrespectful slap in the face to all those efforts and will allow America to abdicate the role of dominance in this space to another nation (more than likely China). It makes us less safe, less informed, and it will set meteorological and climate (not just climate change) research back years or more. The only logical reason one would propose this budget is if they had an agenda that wants to end American dominance in this space or wants to willfully make Americans less safe and informed. Full stop.

If you’re a deficit hawk and want to cut spending, this bill does absolutely nothing to tangibly change the federal deficit at a cost far greater than any savings could ever be. It is almost shockingly non-sensical. While this is strong language and this may sound like a politically biased or motivated take, it isn’t. For the life of me, I cannot understand who thought this was a good plan to propose and why they’d propose it at all. Nothing about it is America first, makes America great, or helps Americans rich or poor. It is a universally disastrous proposal, and we can only hope that Congress course corrects this quickly.

With Barry out of the way, we look at the next candidate for development this coming weekend

In brief: Barry has dissipated. Next, we’ll watch the northeast Gulf or southwest Atlantic for development by this weekend, though there’s only modest support for something formal at this time. Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Flossie is likely to become another Pacific hurricane tonight, with heavy rain and tropical storm conditions for parts of the Mexico coast.

Like Tropical Storm Andrea earlier in the month, Tropical Storm Barry held that title for a full 12 hours yesterday. Two names down covering 24 total hours? We could get used to this. Anyway, now we move onto the next development chance.

Gulf or Atlantic? Who’s next?

Over the next several days, we’re going to see repeated rounds of thunderstorms near the Florida Panhandle or just off the First Coast in northeast Florida. By the time we get to Thursday or Friday, a cool front is going to drop into the area and basically stall out, or “wash” out nearby, a typical feature a couple times per summer.

Surface map forecast shows an approaching cool front and weak low pressure approaching Florida from the north. (NOAA WPC)

With these festering thunderstorms and an approaching front, it may be just the shot in the arm this area needs to begin to try to organize. The biggest questions right now revolve around where exactly this happens and what sort of environment it will have to organize in. We know that there will probably be some sort of disturbance that consolidates between the northeast Gulf or southwest Atlantic this weekend.

(Tropical Tidbits)

Steering currents this weekend and early next week look fairly weak, so whatever does form could scoot out into the Atlantic slowly, or drift west southwest through the Gulf. Before anyone panics over this, I think there are a couple things we can say. Systems trying to develop this close to land tend to struggle. Also, there will be a fair bit of dry air around the Gulf Coast early next week that should cause this to struggle a bit as well. Another occasional outcome is that sometimes these disturbances split up some instead of consolidating, and a piece of it would go west and another east.

In terms of model support, reliable modeling tends to be subdued in terms of how this develops, with one or two stronger outliers out of 100 or so ensemble members.

So sitting here on Monday, all we can really do is just watch the evolution of this on modeling. A couple things can be said. There should be a disturbance. There’s not much support for significant development, and there is modest support for sloppy development. One thing there is high confidence in is that the Gulf Coast of Florida is going to get whacked by heavy rainfall.

7-day rainfall totals through next Monday morning. (NOAA WPC)

The current NWS forecast shows upwards of 10 to 15 inches of rain or more possible just along the coast of the Big Bend and in the open Gulf. There will likely be some street flooding issues at times along the west coast and Panhandle coast of Florida. Heavy rain may also extend back west to Mobile and coastal Mississippi. This will be the biggest impact concern through early next week. More to come.

Elsewhere

Tropical Storm Flossie in the Pacific is going to become a hurricane by tonight in all likelihood. It will pass along and off the coast of Mexico, bringing heavy rain to the coast. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are posted there.

(NOAA NHC)

Flossie will significantly weaken as it approaches Baja and enters much colder water. Minimal impacts are expected there, and Flossie’s remnants may get directed out into the open Pacific next week.

Additional development is possible in the Eastern Pacific behind Flossie.

Tropical Storm Barry will soon move inland in Mexico, while the northeast Gulf gets an area to watch next week

In brief: Tropical Storm Barry is a disorganized mess that will be inland over Mexico later today as a heavy rain producer. Another area to watch has now been formally identified in the NE Gulf or SW Atlantic. Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to become a hurricane in the Pacific. And we have some new information on the loss of critical satellite data today, which is important to include in our understanding of what’s happening.

Tropical Storm Barry

This post from hurricane researcher Andy Hazelton about sums up newly formed Tropical Storm Barry.

Barry is one of those “tropical storm in name only” systems. It’s about as disorganized a storm as we’ve seen lately.

Tropical Storm Barry sits somewhere underneath the thunderstorms off Mexico. (Weathernerds.org)

Based on observations of wind direction and speed from an Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance in the system this morning, Barry got the upgrade. So it’s not like they’re just making this up out of thin air. But I think it’s safe to say than 100 years ago, it would be unlikely that this storm would have gotten a name.

(NOAA NHC)

Whatever the case, Barry will scoot inland tonight. We’ll see if both Andrea and Barry combined can add up to 24 hours of cumulative tropical storm intensity for the season. Heavy rain is expected in Mexico from Barry with flooding possible.

Barry’s main impact will be locally flooding rains and mudslide risk for parts of Mexico, particularly in southern Tamaulipas. (NOAA WPC)

Otherwise, Barry should be fairly efficiently wiped out once over land.

Northeast Gulf of Mexico or Southwest Atlantic

Models continue to hint at an area of disturbed weather emanating from a decaying cold front somewhere between the northeast Gulf and southeast Atlantic later this coming week.

About a 20% chance of development currently exists between the northeast Gulf and southwest Atlantic later this week or weekend. (NOAA NHC)

Models are not exactly eagerly advertising a system here, so 20 percent odds of development seem more than reasonable at the moment. That said, there has been a consistency over several days now that suggests some sort of system could develop in that area over the July 4th weekend. In most cases, ensemble agreement is modest at best, intensity looks modest at best, and there is still more support for nothing formal than something even at this point.

European AI modeling (the AIFS) has been showing at least some signal for a weak low in the vicinity of north Florida for several days now. (Tropical Tidbits)

After last season’s successes, we’ve taken to integrating some of the AI forecast models more into identifying some of these possible risks in the medium-term, and in this case the European AIFS model seems to have modest support for a somewhat disorganized system near northern Florida. Other AI models are similar. The ICON (which also performed well in 2024) is a little more all over the place, but it also shows development risks in that same general area.

Bottom line: Something could develop, but right now the ceiling seems fairly low. We’ll continue to monitor through the week as models should hopefully latch onto expectations more.

Pacific Tropical Storm Flossie

In the Eastern Pacific, the storm we had mentioned as likely yesterday is now Tropical Storm Flossie today.

Tropical Storm Flossie is likely to become a hurricane as it moves up along and off the coast of Mexico, eventually dissipating near Baja. (NOAA NHC)

Flossie should pass far enough off the Mexican coast to avoid most hurricane impacts onshore. That said, a tropical storm watch is posted along a good chunk of the coast. And heavy rain is certainly a concern between Guerrero and Jalisco, where upwards of 10 inches (250 mm) may fall locally.

Flossie will be a big rain producer for the coast of Mexico as it passes offshore. (NOAA WPC)

Behind Flossie there is another system that may develop well offshore of Mexico later this week. Busy busy continues!

Update on SSMIS data

Back on Friday I discussed the news about the DoD satellite data that was about to be abruptly on Monday. That is still happening, but the reality of why it is may be a bit more nuanced than just data being cut off. I just want to be clear that when we live in a questionable information environment, this is what tends to happen (and I even said it on Friday that something gets declared, there’s outrage, and then it’s pulled back). The transparency we’ve gotten from elected officials has been on the decline for years and certainly seems to be at its low right now. So in that “vacuum,” we can only really speculate. And while we all have our own opinions on the current state of affairs, it’s of utmost importance to be clear about what’s going on.

Anyway, a LinkedIN post from Jordan Gerth (you should not need a LinkedIN account to view this), who is a satellite expert that I know personally and have very high esteem for suggests that, while this is certainly a suboptimal decision, it is well within the realm of what was expected at some point. It’s just unfortunate that it’s hitting when it is and with such little advance notice. This is an important perspective to include in this story, and I encourage you to read his brief comments. It surely does not take away from the true fact that the overall weather infrastructure of the country has been degraded in the last 6 months, but with this particular decision, the blame does not fall at the feet of anyone in particular. It still creates a very big problem we need to manage this year and possibly beyond until we can get more instrumentation into space.