Milton on the upswing and will require preparing for the worst and hoping for the best on Florida’s west coast

Headlines

  • Milton is now a hurricane, and it is forecast to become a powerful category 4 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.
  • It continues to look likely to track into the west coast of Florida on Wednesday as a major hurricane, delivering wind, rain, and potentially catastrophic storm surge to Florida’s west coast.
  • Impacts will be significant regardless of Milton’s specific intensity at landfall.
  • Milton will also deliver some impacts to the north coast of the Yucatan tomorrow.
4 PM track of Milton shows a landfall somewhere between Fort Myers and Steinhatchee on Wednesday. (NOAA NHC)

Hurricane Milton is strengthening this evening, now with winds of 85 mph. It is expected to become a category 4 hurricane now with 145 mph maximum sustained winds by Tuesday afternoon. It will likely peak in intensity and come ashore into Florida in a somewhat less intense state, however a no less dangerous one.

First point I want to absolutely stress: Given that this storm is going to be extraordinarily precarious for the Tampa Bay area, if you live in an evacuation zone on the Bay and you are told to go and you have the means and ability…go. If you do not, follow up with local officials on what you need to be doing. This is the storm where you expect the worst and hope for the best. Tampa’s had a generally favorable hurricane history over the last 100 years, but at some point that streak is going to end. Unfortunately, you are not afforded the luxury of time with this one. A track north of Tampa Bay has dramatically different impacts in terms of surge compared to a storm tracking south of the bay. As local WFLA meteorologist Jeff Beradelli stressed yesterday, you run from the water and hide from the wind. You don’t need to travel hundreds of miles to escape the surge threat; just a few. But if you are told to go, you should go out of an abundance of caution. We will debate the specifics of the forecast, but I want to remind you that notable past storms such as Katrina, Rita, Ike, and Opal were all storms that were weakening at landfall and that all did tremendous surge damage. That’s the fear in Tampa Bay.

Potential inundation map around Tampa Bay based on a reasonable worst case scenario with the current forecast. (NOAA NHC)

Current model forecasts are still spread out to a point where we believe there are almost equal chances that this tracks just north or to the south of Tampa Bay. In other words, we are still waiting on some clarity with track, hence why we are advising people to evacuate if told to do so.

Afternoon model guidance on Milton shows good agreement on the general track with a significant spread in terms of how this will impact specific west coast communities in Florida.

We are obviously heavily focused on Tampa because that’s the densest and most populated area in this region. But let’s talk briefly about a few other places.

Big Bend & Nature Coast: Areas that were hardest hit by Helene last month will likely see impacts from Milton but hopefully mainly via rain and some gusty winds. With the storm currently likely to track to the south and an offshore wind in place, Big Bend communities should be spared additional surge problems. But some added vulnerability from Helene may lead to a few issues. Follow the advice of local authorities.

Sarasota & Bradenton: Wind and surge will be major concerns here. Unless this does follow extreme southern model forecasts and comes in near Fort Myers, there will likely be a substantial surge in these areas. While there will be strong, potentially major hurricane force winds here, the strongest winds may end up north of this area. Much like Tampa, however, it would be wise to follow any evacuation orders given and you should take this as seriously as Tampa.

Fort Myers & Naples: Obviously this region is vulnerable and on edge for any storm impacts given Ian’s hit a couple years ago. You’ll want to watch how close this gets to you in terms of how much wind to expect (the closer, the worse). Surge should be considerable no matter the track at this point, and you should be following the advice of local officials who should know the risks of surge post-Ian. Really want to make sure folks here take this seriously.

Orlando: We’ve gotten a lot of questions about the Orlando area and people with vacations. In Orlando, the impacts from Milton will involve wind and rain and the potential for severe weather. There will be areas of flooding in and around Central Florida, especially given precursor rounds of rain. So obviously watch for that. While the wind will probably be nasty at times and power outages will be a good possibility, most hotels should have plans in place to keep guests safe in storms like this. One other risk in interior Florida will be that of tornadoes or severe storms as Milton blows through.

Daytona through Jacksonville: This area will see very heavy rain, possibly back inland to Gainesville as well. In addition to tropical storm or hurricane conditions as Milton crosses the area, flooding and isolated tornadoes will be possible. There will probably be some minor storm surge as well on the east coast of Florida.

In terms of rainfall for Florida, between predecessor rains and Milton, we are looking at 5 to 10 inches of additional rainfall along and north of I-4 in Florida.

Significant rainfall along and north of I-4 will cause areas of flooding from Tampa to Orlando to Jacksonville. Additional flooding possible elsewhere in South Florida too. (Pivotal Weather)

So the message I want to close with for now is this: This is a serious, serious threat to Florida and it should be taken seriously. Don’t let any conversation among meteorologists or others about what intensity Milton will be at landfall dictate your decision-making. Follow the advice of local officials, check on friends, family, and neighbors. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. We’ll post again in the morning.

As Milton nears hurricane strength, forecast remains tricky with drier air looming on the path to Florida

Headlines

  • Milton is nearing hurricane strength as it begins to move eastward toward Florida
  • The storm is forecast to rapidly intensify today and Monday as it encounters very warm seas
  • The intensity forecast becomes more complicated as Milton nears Florida, and faces more hostile atmospheric conditions
  • Residents along the western coast of Florida should make preparations today and Monday in advance of the storm’s arrival
11 am ET Sunday track forecast for Tropical Storm Milton. (National Hurricane Center)

Milton on Sunday morning

As of 11 am ET on Sunday morning, Milton has strengthened to a 65-mph tropical storm, which is just 10 mph below hurricane strength. Given that an eyewall has formed, it is likely that Milton will become a hurricane later today, and possibly strengthen into a major hurricane by Monday. The storm has started to move a little bit more, toward the east-southeast, at about 6 mph. Its motion will continue to accelerate over the next couple of days as steering currents become more pronounced.

Major sources of uncertainty

In this section I want to talk about what is known, and what is not, in regard to Milton. Let’s start with the track of the storm. Overnight, there has been a modest southern shift in several of the most important models we look at. Although there remains some uncertainty, at this time the most likely outcome for a Florida landfall on Wednesday is somewhere just north of Tampa Bay to just south of Fort Myers. I would anticipate that the track forecast will really tighten up during the next 24 hours. However, time is running out for preparations, with tropical storm-force winds possibly reaching the west coast of Florida by as early as Tuesday evening.

Next, we’ll move to intensity. This is really where there is the largest amount of uncertainty. We expect Milton to intensify rapidly over the next couple of days because it will be traversing very warm waters and face only modest levels of wind shear. The National Hurricane Center predicts that Milton will peak as a strong Category 3 hurricane on Tuesday evening, with 125 mph sustained winds, as it nears Florida. It might be even stronger.

Around that time, however, Milton will be encountering increasing levels of wind shear, which disrupts the circulation of a hurricane much like trying to skate on uneven ice. Another potentially significant factor is the intrusion of dry air from the north and west of Milton, which will be wrapped into the circulation of the hurricane. This dry air results from the front the northern Gulf of Mexico that is helping to steer Milton toward Florida. The image below shows how dry air might become entrained into Milton by Tuesday evening and Wednesday.

How dry air will get pulled into the circulation of Milton by mid-week. (Weather Bell/The Eyewall)

How all of this plays out is difficult to predict, even though we are only about four days from Milton making landfall. A weaker storm is unquestionably better in terms of wind damage. However, a weakening storm could also become larger (Milton is fairly small right now), and a larger storm often produces a more powerful storm surge, and has more far-reaching effects. This is why we cannot say too much about impacts from Milton for specific areas of Florida yet. Too much depends on track, size, and intensity of the hurricane, which all remain a bit fuzzy.

The bottom line remains pretty simple, however. A powerful and potentially destructive hurricane is headed toward the west coast of Florida, and will strike the state in the middle of the week. Milton will bring strong winds, heavy rains, and a significant surge to parts of the state. People who live along the west coast, especially from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay metro area, should prepare for the worst in terms of wind, surge, and rainfall now. Much of the rest of Florida, aside from the Panhandle, should prepare for the possibility of heavy rainfall.

Tampa hurricane history

The Tampa Bay metro area, with a population of more than 3 million people, is the most developed region on the west coast of Florida. Among hurricane forecasters, the region is famous for dodging major hurricanes. A major hurricane, defined as Category 3 or larger, has not made a direct impact on Tampa Bay since 1921, more than a century ago. This was the Tampa Bay Hurricane, and was so-called because back then there was no formal naming convention for tropical storms and hurricanes.

A century ago the region had less than one-twentieth the population is does now, about 125,000 people. The Tampa Bay area has had some close calls of late, including Hurricane Charley, in 2004; Hurricane Irma, 2017; Hurricane Ian, 2022; and of course Hurricane Helene this year. Will the region’s luck hold out with Milton? It’s way too early to make any kind of prediction.

Track of the Tampa Bay Hurricane in 1921. (Wikipedia)

Elsewhere in the tropics

There is plenty of other activity in the Atlantic tropics. Hurricane Kirk is rampaging across the mid-Atlantic Ocean, and although it is thousands of miles distant, producing some modest swells along the US East Coast. Eventually, as an extra-tropical storm Kirk could bring some disturbed weather to northern Spain or France. Hurricane Leslie has also formed in the open Atlantic, but this storm is not going to bother anyone, anywhere. For now, the focus is going to be all about Milton.

Matt will have an update by or before 6 pm ET today discussing the latest on Milton, and our thinking on its most severe impacts.

Milton forms, and this tropical system poses a significant threat to Florida

Headlines

  • Milton has become a tropical storm in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
  • The storm is likely to undergo significant intensification over favorable waters during the coming days
  • In all probability, a major hurricane will approach the western coast of Florida by mid-week
  • Some locations in western Florida have not experienced a powerful hurricane like this in several decades

Meet Milton

At 5 pm ET on Saturday, the National Hurricane Center upgraded a tropical depression in the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico into Tropical Storm Milton. The center of the storm is nearly stationary this evening, but it should start to move slowly to the east over the next day or so before accelerating. Although it is unusual for a tropical system this far west in the Gulf of Mexico to move toward Florida, that’s exactly what we expect to happen over the next four days in response to blocking in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere.

5 pm ET track for Tropical Storm Milton. (National Hurricane Center)

Although we remain about four days—give or take—from a landfall along the west coast of Florida, it is important for residents of the state to take Milton very seriously. We realize that some areas of the state remain dazed by Hurricane Helene, but this is a similarly threatening storm. Although we don’t have full confidence in precisely where the storm will track, it does seem very possible that it will directly impact the greater Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro area, which has a population in excess of 3 million people.

Please remember that the forecast can and will change in the coming days. However, we have seen a fair amount of tightening in the model solutions over the last 24 hours, and increasingly they are pointing to a powerful hurricane approaching the western Florida coast, possibly near or north of Tampa Bay, by around Wednesday of next week. This post will discuss our preliminary assessment of some of the impacts from this storm.

Track and intensity

There remains a broad cone of uncertainty in regard to where Milton will go, but we can expect this to narrow somewhat during the next day or so. After Milton wobbles around the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next day or so, it will get picked up by a front moving down into the northern Gulf of Mexico. This will help steer the storm the east, and then the northeast over the next few days.

A view of the ensemble uncertainty in regard to Milton’s track this week. (Tomer Burg)

Most of our best modeling guidance, including hurricane specific models such as the HWRF and HAFS, brings the storm to the western coast of Florida, near the Tampa Bay region, very late on Tuesday night or Wednesday. Now that a fairly well defined center of circulation has formed, I expect modeling agreement to increase over the next day or so.

In terms of intensity, there is a broad range of outcomes. The National Hurricane Center predicts a major, Category 3 hurricane at landfall on Wednesday. However, an even more powerful storm is possible given that the Gulf of Mexico is very warm, with deep oceanic heat content, and wind shear levels unlikely to disrupt Milton’s organization. Unfortunately, this is a setup for the development of a large and powerful hurricane.

A sampling of Milton intensity forecasts from global and hurricane models. (NCAR)

Winds

Milton’s track will determine where the storms strongest winds occur; they will be along the path of the center and generally just to its right. The majority of our guidance continues to point to a hurricane somewhere between Category 2 and Category 4 intensity, which means that there is the potential for a large stretch of the Florida peninsula to experience hurricane-force winds. This level of winds will cause significant damage and likely lead to power outages.

Storm surge

With four days to develop, Milton is ultimately going to push a large and powerful storm surge toward Florida. This storm will almost certainly impact areas south of where Hurricane Helene struck in September, but at this point anywhere from the coastal bend of Florida, south to the Tampa Bay area, and further south to Fort Myers, is at risk. It is too early to talk about absolute risks, but for wherever Milton makes landfall, the storm is likely to bring a historically damaging storm surge. These impacts will be most pronounced just to the right of where the hurricane makes landfall—which again, is a location that we cannot say with any certainty yet.

Inland rainfall

Heavy rainfall is another threat from Milton. Although the storm should be moving at a fairly good clip once it reaches Florida by the middle of this week, Milton could nonetheless drench a swath of the state, from west to east as it crosses the state. Whether this occurs in the central part of the state, such as the vicinity of Orlando and the Space Coast, or further north in the coastal bend and Jacksonville, is just not clear yet. However, the risk is there for 10 or more inches of rainfall in a short period of time, which will lead to flash flooding.

Most likely arrival time of tropical storm force winds. (National Hurricane Center)

Conclusions

If you’ve read this post up until now, you’ll realize that we cannot say much more at this time beyond stating that a serious hurricane threat is coming to the state of Florida this week. Sunday and Monday will be a time for preparations, as impacts such as wind and heavy rain are likely to reach the state as early as Tuesday evening.

We will have continuing coverage on The Eyewall as this very serious threat develops.

Florida will be threatened by Tropical Depression 14, likely to become Hurricane Milton

Headlines

  • Tropical Depression 14 has formed this morning in the western Gulf of Mexico.
  • It is expected to rapidly intensify late this weekend or early next week into a borderline major hurricane.
  • That hurricane will threaten the west coast of Florida somewhere between the Big Bend and southwest Florida.
  • Impacts from the storm will be widespread across Florida, with heavy rain and flooding over a wide area, and storm surge risk depending on the exact track of the storm.
  • Folks across Florida should begin preparing now for a hurricane impact by later Tuesday or Wednesday.

Just a quick post this morning to lay the landscape out on a number of changes in the last 36 hours. We warned yesterday that odds of development had been increasing in such a way that it was becoming more likely that we’d see something, but even we did not anticipate how quickly things would escalate.

First, we now have Tropical Depression 14 in the western Gulf.

Tropical Depression 14 formed from a disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico today. (Weathernerds.org)

This was not expected to happen so quickly, but that has been the case here today. The National Hurricane Center’s first forecast for to-be Milton is for 110 mph winds and a track to the west coast of Florida.

The first bid on TD 14/future Milton shows a track into the west coast of Florida as a borderline major hurricane. (NOAA NHC)

First observation here: Do not focus on the specific track. Focus on the cone. We’ve seen a few instances of west coast of Florida landfalls in recent years, but historically almost none have come from the area where TD 14 is currently. So we’re in a unique scenario here. The geography of Florida is such that a storm into the west coast from this direction will have the worst storm surge on the south side of the storm as it makes landfall. But the worst wind would likely be on the north side. You’re looking at a multi-hazard scenario here. You’re also looking at an extremely vulnerable coastline just a couple weeks removed from Helene. People in Tampa are still cleaning up from surge damage, and now this is on the horizon. People in the Big Bend are still trying to begin recovery as well. While this will likely come ashore south and east of where Helene hit, there will be overlap of significant impacts between the two storms if this continues. Start preparing right now. Maybe this is a fluke or does something we don’t currently expect, but this storm will have an environment favorable for rapid intensification in the Gulf.

Tropical models are quite varied in terms of intensity, but the message we are seeing from the better performing models this season favors the upper half of the intensity curves here, close to where the NHC is forecasting right now. (Tropical Tidbits)

In addition to the potential for wind, surge, and marine hazards, the rainfall situation in Florida is quite messy now.

The rainfall forecast for Florida shows a widespread 5 to 10 inches likely, and higher amounts will be possible. Risks of heavy rain have increased north of I-4 as well now, including up through the Jacksonville area. (Pivotal Weather)

I think the Peninsula is now looking at a widespread 5 to 10 inches. The heaviest rain is shifting around a bit now with organized tropical development entering the picture. While, broadly, the heaviest rain will be south of I-4, there will likely be a corridor of heavy rain near or north of I-4 as well, possibly up into the Jacksonville area. Basically, the entire peninsula needs to prepare for heavy rain and flooding potential. Coastal areas need to prepare for more than that.

I’m going to stop there for now. It’s early in the game, relatively, and I don’t want to speculate too much on specific impacts, but the message is pretty clear today: Start preparing now in Florida for a potential major hurricane hit on the west coast. Eric is going to have another update late this afternoon or evening with the latest, and we’ll be with you into Sunday as well.