Surprise, surprise with two named storms in the Atlantic today

Headlines

  • Yesterday’s invests are today’s named storms.
  • Nadine is moving inland in Central America and Mexico, producing locally heavy rainfall.
  • Oscar is a micro hurricane north of Hispaniola bringing rough conditions to the Turks and Caicos Islands and perhaps the southeastern Bahamas and parts of Cuba.

Tropical Storm Nadine

Yesterday we noted that Invest 95L had a shot to become a depression or low-end tropical storm before moving into Central America today. That is indeed what happened, as Tropical Storm Nadine formed from the mess, and it is now moving inland.

Total rainfall from Nadine should be in excess of 12 inches (300 mm) in portions of Mexico. (NOAA WPC)

Nadine is primarily a rainmaker, and flash flooding is a good bet for portions of the Yucatan, Belize, and Veracruz and Oaxaca. No further strengthening is expected.

Hurricane Oscar

The Oscar for most surprising storm of the season goes to Oscar! Not only did we get a tropical storm out of Invest 94L, we got Hurricane Oscar.

Hurricane Oscar is a tiny, tiny storm with 80 mph winds. (Weathernerds.org)

Hurricane-force winds extend out a total of 5 miles from the center, while tropical storm force winds extend out about 45 miles. Oscar could best be described as a “microcane.” Still, those winds are bearing down on the Turks and Caicos Islands and moving toward the southeastern Bahamas. Widespread tropical storm and isolated hurricane conditions are likely with this as it passes through.

Oscar is expected to drift southwest-ward into or near Cuba by Monday before turning northeast out to sea. (NOAA NHC)

Nothing about Oscar is simple. Storms this small will periodically be big misses in the model world, underscoring the value of reconnaissance flights and other observational tools. Modeling completely whiffed on this yesterday and even up to this morning. This is another post for another day, but thankfully the forecast has been updated, and it now appears we have some solid footing on Oscar for folks in the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas, as well as in Cuba. At this point, no threat to the U.S. is seen, as wind shear is too high just west of here, something that should make Oscar grouchy early next week. Interests in Cuba and the southwest Atlantic should continue monitoring Oscar’s progress.

Invest 95L will clear the picture this weekend as a rainmaker in Central America, while Invest 94L dissipates

Headlines

  • Invest 94L just north of the Caribbean islands is going to fall prey to epic amounts of wind shear in the southwest Atlantic this weekend, ending any low-risk development potential.
  • Invest 95L has a very narrow window through Saturday morning to organize before moving across land in Central America as a rainmaker.
  • The tropics look fairly quiet heading into next week.

Thanks to Eric for covering me this week while I underwent oral surgery for orthodontia. I’ll just say it’s about as glamorous as it sounds. Thanks to Methodist Hospital here in Houston for a good procedure and great quality care afterwards.

Let’s take a dip into the tropics.

Invest 94L’s last gasp

What is left of Invest 94L is moving just north of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico today. This is a rather robust area of thunderstorms, but it lacks any organization.

Invest 94L is producing widespread thunderstorms mainly north of the islands on Friday afternoon. (Weathernerds.org)

Over the next couple days, 94L will continue westward over the next 24 hours or so before it’s completely enveloped by significant wind shear that has overtaken the Gulf of Mexico and southwest Atlantic. Wind shear is as high as 90 knots right now across Florida, which is completely inhospitable for tropical development and some of the strongest shear I’ve seen here this time of year. So, thanks for the memories, Invest 94L and we wish you well.

Invest 95L to dump rain on Central America

Meanwhile, Invest 95L is in a bit of a different situation. This disturbance is located off the coasts of Belize and Honduras this afternoon. It is also showing robust thunderstorm activity.

Invest 95L has a short window to become a depression or low-end named tropical storm before moving inland over Central America tonight. (Weathernerds.org)

This one has a much less hostile environment to develop in than Invest 94L to the north does. However, it has a key limiting factor: Time. Invest 95L has about 24 hours or less left over water before it moves inland across Belize and Central America. In that time, it could become a tropical depression or low-end tropical storm, but no further development would be expected. Still, heavy rainfall is likely in Central America this weekend from Invest 95L that could cause some flooding issues. There is a chance that the remnants of 95L merge with another Pacific disturbance to form a storm next week that rides westward away from Mexico. But beyond this weekend’s rainfall, 95L is not a threat to land.

Beyond the Invests

At this point, there is nothing to speak of in the tropics once 94L and 95L exit the picture. That’ll give us a few more days of rest here. There are signs that the tropics could get active again heading into November, but it’s important to note that as the Northern Hemisphere pattern begins to shift toward winter, the typical behaviors of tropical systems don’t always continue. We’ll touch more on this next week.

In the meantime, have a good weekend, and don’t forget to check out our Sponsors page above. Thank you to them for their support of The Eyewall this hurricane season!

We’re tracking a pair of systems, but overall things are quieting down after a frenetic period in the Atlantic basin

Headlines

  • 94L in the Central Atlantic Ocean continues to putter along
  • Significant development is less likely as the system nears the Caribbean Sea
  • Parts of Central America could see heavy rainfall over the next week from tropical moisture
  • Overall there appear to be no threats to the United States over the forecast period
Seven-day tropical outlook as of Wednesday morning. (National Hurricane Center)

Invest 94L

We’re continuing to track an area of low pressure that is moving across the central Atlantic Ocean. Overall, this system is expected to continue moving more or less westward, or just north of due west, this week. This would put it in the vicinity of Puerto Rico or Hispaniola by this weekend. We can be fairly confident in this general track. What I’m less certain of this morning is whether anything actually develops.

Most of the ensemble members of the GFS model indicate there’s not much to see here. (Weather Bell)

The National Hurricane Center gives Invest 94L a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm during the next seven days, and frankly this feels a little generous. Most of the major models that we look at no longer develop 94L into a tropical system (a few still do). In any case, this is something for the Caribbean islands and possibly the Bahamas to continue to watch, but our overall concerns for significant impacts from 94L remain fairly low. If our thinking on this changes, we’ll of course provide a timely update.

Caribbean Sea blob

The National Hurricane Center has also begun highlighting an area that Matt has been talking about for awhile in the western Caribbean Sea. This mass of showers and thunderstorms is not particularly organized, nor do I think it probably will become a depression or named storm. However, this part of the Caribbean Sea remains very warm, so there is at least the potential for something.

10-day rainfall forecast for Central America from the European model. (Weather Bell)

Regardless of development, however, this system could prove a rainmaker for southern Belize, Guatemala, and Honduras over the next week or 10 days. Depending on whether the heaviest rains remain offshore or push further inland, rainfall from this tropical blob could potentially lead to some mudslides in the region.

Elsewhere

As we get deeper into October, the tropics are starting to wind down. The Atlantic season doesn’t officially end until November 30, of course, but at this point we don’t see any near-term threats to the United States. That’s a good thing as areas hard hit by hurricanes Helene and Milton continue to recover, and start to rebuild.

Invest 94L to be a fickle system in the Atlantic this week but poses minimal serious risk at this time

Headlines

  • Invest 94L is in the middle of the central Atlantic, and has about a 50/50 chance to develop as it comes west this week.
  • Any development would likely be slow to occur and modest impacts to the Caribbean are possible by the weekend.
  • We anticipate that 94L would fall prey to copious amounts of wind shear in the southwest Atlantic and Gulf before it makes it to the U.S., and it is unlikely to ever be a serious threat to the Southeast.
  • No other noteworthy developments are expected.

Invest 94L: Worth watching, but not a very serious concern

The next disturbance we have our eyes on is Invest 94L, a tropical wave moving through the Atlantic right now. The NHC is giving this about a 50/50 shot at development over the next several days.

A tropical system has about a 50/50 chance to develop in the Atlantic over the next few days. (NOAA NHC)

If you live in Florida, at first glance, your stomach may sink, but in reality it is mid-October, not mid-August. Storms generally do not form here and long track their way to the United States. Also, it’s important to note that the hatched area is not the track of a nascent system but rather the area in which the system may develop. In other words, Invest 94L may develop somewhere in that orange hatched region. If it develops.

So over the next several days, Invest 94L will come westward.

Where is Invest 94L? It’s the little area of thunderstorms in the middle of the image. (Weathernerds.org)

For now at least, 94L is located in a pretty hostile area with lots of dry air surrounding it, and a bit of shear in the vicinity too. Over the next couple days, that may back off some, and that’s when 94L could make an effort to develop slowly. If there is a point where 94L has its best chance of developing, it’s probably in about 3 days as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands and perhaps the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Again, development is probably going to be sluggish here, so we aren’t expecting a Milton or Helene-esque blast of rapid intensification or anything. But if you are in the islands or planning to visit the eastern Caribbean islands this weekend, it’s something you’ll at least want to monitor. Most modeling keeps the ceiling on 94L low as it moves into the islands.

From there, it’s going to be difficult to see Invest 94L making it much farther west while remaining intact. There is a wall of wind shear forecast to be over the Gulf and Southeast this weekend which would almost certainly shred 94L or whatever it is at that point (provided Hispaniola doesn’t get to shred it first). In other words, by the time we get later into the weekend or early next week, it’s difficult to think that this one remains a major concern.

Copious wind shear should do the job on 94L/Nadine eventually. (Tropical Tidbits)

So bottom line on Invest 94L: Watch it in the Caribbean. Keep tabs on it to the west. But in general, we do not believe this one will be a major issue at this time.

Elsewhere

There’s nothing else we really have our eyes on. We are seeing some periodic signs of Caribbean development from the GFS model in particular. That seems to have very limited ensemble support or support from other models that have performed well this tropical season. At this point, the only organized system they seem to be picking up over the next 7 to 10 days is Invest 94L. So we anticipate that’ll be the only real game in town for a bit.