In brief: The Atlantic should be calm over the next week, though there’s a low chance of something to watch next weekend off the East Coast. The Pacific gets active again this weekend. Heat winds down and by next week a less noteworthy pattern dominates the U.S.
Atlantic dust but a little something next weekend
On the Atlantic side of the coin, things continue quiet for the next 7 days. The entire central and eastern Atlantic is basically smothered in Saharan dust right now.
Saharan dust (yellow, orange, red, pink) covered the majority of the Atlantic basin. (University of Wisconsin CIMSS)
The dust indicates the presence of dry air, which is easily seen when you look up about 10,000 feet in the atmosphere at the relative humidity across the Atlantic.
Dry air (brown) covers most of the basin concurrent with the Saharan dust. (Pivotal Weather)
The only hint of anything right now for the next 7 to 10 days will be off the Southeast coast late next week or weekend. Models have been fairly consistently showing the potential for a disturbance to emerge there and likely scoot out to sea. Model support for this is across the board from traditional to AI models. We’ll keep an eye on that, but at this time, there’s no support for anything of concern to the Florida, Georgia, or Carolina coasts.
Pacific back in action soon
Look for the Pacific to wake up from its short late June slumber soon. A disturbance off the coast of Mexico will have about an 80 percent chance of developing by this weekend.
A disturbance off the coast will be likely to develop by this weekend. (NOAA NHC)
While the general model consensus currently keeps this system just off the coast of Mexico, some of the more reliable guidance does keep this thing awfully close to the coast, so it’s possible that impacts, at least indirectly, will be felt from about Oaxaca north to Baja as this lifts up the coast. It seems unlikely that this would be a major storm due to proximity to land, but something fairly well organized could emerge from this for a time. Worth continuing to monitor for those in Mexico.
Evolution of the heat wave from here
The Eastern U.S. heat wave is beginning to slow down now. However, it won’t completely disappear. Look for a gradual wind down in temperatures over the next several days, especially in the Midwest (though Friday looks quite cool in the East). Severe weather risks will continue around the periphery of things, including the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. But as you can see from the map below, it’s not until next week that we see some troughing begin to develop in the East, which should deliver some cooler weather.
The upper pattern supports a gradual wind down of warm weather in the East, with an emerging cooler pattern later next week. (Pivotal Weather)
Meanwhile, you can see a big ridge pop up in the Pacific Northwest or western Canada. Next Tuesday looks especially hot with mid-90s in Spokane, 80s in Seattle, and near 100 in Boise. But at least for a moment, by the time we get to the middle of next week, the overall pattern across the country looks fairly standard with nothing too spicy.
In brief: Tropical Storm Andrea formed yesterday — and dissipated yesterday. Heat records were shattered on Tuesday in the East, but the heat will slowly fade away now. Flooding risks continue in New Mexico, and more rain is likely on the way for the Southwest next week.
Atlantic
This morning, we start with a tribute to Tropical Storm Andrea. It formed yesterday morning around 10 AM Central Time. It left us a full 12 hours later. It fought a courageous battle but was ultimately no match colder water temperatures, drier air, and wind shear. Andrea set an example that all other tropical systems should seek to follow between now and November. For that, we are grateful.
All that remains of Tropical Storm Andrea is this swirl and the memories. (Weathernerds.org)
In all seriousness, with Andrea coming and going, the Atlantic looks to remain quiet for the next week or more. The Pacific will awaken again this weekend or so.
Heat records obliterated
Let’s just talk for a moment about the heat yesterday in the East. On Monday, we saw outrageous dewpoints. Yesterday was about temperatures. State temperature records for June were tied or broken in Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Maryland.
🌡️7 STATES BREAKING A FULL STATE MONTHLY RECORDon the same day is something we saw very few times in the past 150 years in USAToday is ONE OF THOSEA small list of the several hundreds June records broken which includes NYC,Boston,Newark,Baltimore,Providence etc..👇
For Boston, 102° was their hottest June day on record and 4th hottest day overall on record. Providence saw their hottest June day on record and 6th hottest overall day on record. It wasn’t just the mayoral primary heating up in New York City. Central Park’s 99 degrees was a record for the date, but it fell short of June’s temperature record of 101°. LaGuardia’s 101° ties the June record. 102° at JFK Airport was tied for 3rd hottest all-time and set a new June record. The 103° in Newark, NJ ties for 12th hottest on record and ties the all-time June record. Shout out to my hometown of Atlantic City, tying for 6th hottest day on record at 102°. The hottest day on record was in June of 1969. Philly hit 101°, while Baltimore and DC were comparatively cooler at 98° and 99° respectively.
The heat will begin to ebb now. Another round of multiple temperature records are possible in the Northeast Corridor again today, but they will fall short of yesterday in most cases.
Another spate of records should be broken or tied today, but in most cases they’ll fall a good deal short of yesterday’s values. (NOAA)
Notice how nationally (at the top of the image above) the number of records threatened drops off dramatically after today. The number of nighttime low warm records is pretty wild, but that’s worthy of another post on another day.
Desert Southwest soaking
Parts of New Mexico have received 3 to 6 inches of rain in the last 24 to 48 hours, triggering multiple flash flood warnings across the state on Tuesday.
Significant rainfall as high as 3 to 6 inches has fallen in the last 24 to 48 hours across parts of New Mexico. (NOAA NSSL)
Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely today but hopefully in a more isolated fashion. Several more inches of rain may fall in parts of the state however before all is said and done.
(NWS Albuquerque)
Looking farther out in time, it looks like monsoon season is really going to begin to flex in the Southwest next week, with heavy rain possible again in New Mexico but also perhaps parts of Arizona and West Texas.
Rainfall as much as 200 to 300 percent of normal is possible next week and weekend across the Desert Southwest as monsoon season ramps up. (StormVista Weather Models)
Keep in mind that 300 percent of normal in the Desert Southwest equates to about an inch or so of rain. So from that standpoint, it’s not a ton. That being said, some operational modeling does hint at higher totals than this. This far out, you’re just looking for a signal, and that signal is clearly pointing to an uptick in rainfall there.
Where does heat go next?
Heat will fade in the East, as we noted above. So where does it go next? Well over the next week or so, any heat should be transient in nature, meaning it’ll come and go in spots. Some places that may see an uptick in stronger heat include the Upper Midwest (Minneapolis could push into the 90s this weekend). The interior Northwest could see a burst of heat next week, with Spokane pushing the mid-90s by Monday or Tuesday. Thereafter, it may be Texas that sees the heat too.
Day 11 to 15 temperature anomalies show Texas heating up later next week with 100s possible in Dallas and upper-90s in Houston. (Tropical Tidbits)
Summer doing summer things after an extreme late June for parts of the country.
In brief: We’re watching for Pacific development again later this week, while the Atlantic remains quiet. We dive into absolutely obscene humidity levels in the Northeast yesterday, the continuation of the heat wave, and the latest on flooding risk in New Mexico today. We also look at how all these things are related.
Atlantic update
Invest 90L is just about out of time in the open Atlantic. It has about 12 hours left before it basically gets absorbed into the overall pattern and ushered east with the window for development closing.
Invest 90L is running out of time to develop in the open waters of the Atlantic, though it does look a bit feisty this morning. (Weathernerds.org)
The satellite presentation of 90L this morning is actually fairly feisty looking. Whether it’s enough to get it over the hump and classify it as a depression is really a matter of technicalities at this point. We’ve certainly seen worse looking tropical systems in recent years, so I wouldn’t be shocked if this gets revisited in the postseason analysis. Regardless, this is heading out to sea and is no threat to land. The rest of the Atlantic looks quiet at this point.
Pacific update
On the other side of the continent, we are likely to see the next disturbance emerge off Mexico and into the East Pacific later this week. Right now, the NHC assigns about 70 percent odds of development for this system but probably not til the weekend.
There is a 70 percent chance that another system will develop off the coast of Mexico but probably not until this weekend. (NOAA NHC)
Most modeling suggests this will slide out into the open Pacific, but there remains some subset of model data keeping it fairly close to the coast of Mexico south of Baja. We’ll see if that comes into clearer focus in the coming days.
Absurd Upstate New York/Vermont humidity
Meanwhile, hoooo boy. I worked for 5 years in Central New York in the Mohawk Valley, not far from the foothills of the Adirondacks. We experienced some hot weather every summer just like any other place. But the level of absurdity of dewpoints yesterday in western New England and Upstate New York was wild. Dewpoint is a measure of the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, or the temperature you’d have to cool the atmosphere to for it to be saturated. Essentially, the higher the dewpoint, the worse it feels outside.
At 4PM, the feels-like temperature is likely near or just past its daily peak. It's been an oppressively hot day, and tomorrow will be similar.Some of the preliminary "highlights":Peak feels-like temperature: 117F, at WhitehallPeak temperature: 100F, at Plattsburgh
When you combine the temperature and dewpoint, that’s generally how you measure the “feels like” or “real feel” or “heat index” value. Yesterday, Whitehall, NY, which mind you is not exactly some urban heat island on the Gulf Coast measured a heat index of 117° from the New York State Mesonet. That is…absurd. Since the year 2000 (LaBamba from Conan O’Brien voice), Burlington, Vermont has recorded exactly 1 hour with a heat index of 110 degrees back in July 2002. To the south, Albany has had a couple hours up to 109° back in 2011 and 2018. The highest heat index value to date in 2025 here in Houston has been 107° on June 20th. Hourly records for things like heat index are often hard to track, but I think it’s pretty clear that what happened yesterday in Upstate New York and Vermont was an exceptional weather event.
Click to enlarge Monday’s meteogram showing temperature, dewpoint, and heat index at Whitehall, NY. (NYS Mesonet)
At one point, dewpoints got over 80 degrees at Whitehall, which I can’t recall really seeing up that way. Even Montreal had a dewpoint as high as 77° and a heat index of 105° yesterday! I went back through hourly data since 2000. Albany, Burlington, Syracuse, and Montpelier have never touched an 80 degree dewpoint in that time. Having lived there and grown up in South Jersey on the Jersey Shore, which can get rather muggy, it’s somewhat astonishing to me that it got this humid. Heat isn’t uncommon in New England or the Northeast. This sort of humidity, however, is either exceptionally rare or almost unheard of.
Heat outlook
The heat will roll on. Another round of numerous daily temperature records will be threatened today, from 100s in the Northeast Corridor to upper-90s in the interior, and plenty of humidity to boot once again.
A sampling of forecast high temperatures today that will approach or exceed records for the date. (NOAA)
In fact, the amount of available moisture tomorrow, especially in northern New England and Upstate New York will be very high. Precipitable water, or how much moisture is available is expected to run about an inch above normal in those areas. A really, really impressive setup continues.
Precipitable water anomalies increase, meaning the amount of moisture available in the atmosphere will increase later today. (Pivotal Weather)
New Mexico
Heavy rain is expected today across much of New Mexico, leading to flood watches and a moderate risk (3/4) of excessive rainfall leading to flooding.
A moderate risk (3/4) for flash flooding today from near White Sands north to Taos, including Albuquerque and Santa Fe. (NOAA WPC)
Rain totals of 1 to 4 inches are possible today, which will produce pockets of flash flooding in parts of the state affected by recent heavy rains. Some places have seen 2 to 4 inches in the last 72 hours. This becomes of serious concern near and below burn scars that dot portions of the state from recent wildfires.
(NWS Albuquerque)
The forecast amounts are highest in the southeast, but it won’t take much for some of those higher amounts to show up elsewhere, including some risk of urban flash flooding in the Albuquerque metro. The flood watch in New Mexico remains until Wednesday morning in most spots, but through tomorrow evening in the South Central Mountains in the state.
Connecting the dots
Why is this happening? It all ties into how the weather pattern is interplaying at a large scale. With near-record high pressure over the Mid-South and Appalachia, as well as a deep trough over California, the flow pattern is drawing in Pacific moisture, including tropical moisture. That moisture funnels between the ridge and trough, taking aim at New Mexico, hence today’s flooding risk, as well as into the Upper Midwest, Lakes, southeast Canada, and U.S. Northeast. This provides higher than usual humidity, more thunderstorm chances, and some severe weather around the periphery of the ridge of high pressure.
Because of how the U.S. weather pattern is oriented, we are seeing some extreme outcomes including flooding in New Mexico, extremely high humidity in the Northeast, and periods of severe weather in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and southeastern Canada. (Tropical Tidbits)
In addition, thunderstorm chances on the Gulf Coast have also increased this week due to east to west winds due to the clockwise flow around the high pressure system, with more Gulf and Atlantic moisture pressing across the Deep South and into Texas. Some of that Gulf, Gulf Stream, and even Caribbean air is getting dragged into this whole thing too. With this high pressure being near-record intensity, it underscores that extreme patterns tend to produce extreme outcomes.
Everything is connected in some way on this planet. We’re experiencing a microcosm of this now in the U.S. and Canada.
In brief: Our first investigative area of hurricane season has formed in the Atlantic, but Invest 90L will not threaten any land. Meanwhile, heat roasts the East this week, while flooding threatens New Mexico.
Subtropical mischief from Invest 90L
It’s easy to get so caught up in looking at the corridor between the Gulf, Caribbean, and Africa that mid-latitude systems out in the open Atlantic can sometimes just get lumped in with background noise. Indeed, it appears that this may be one of those cases.
A subtropical system may have a very, very brief window to develop before midweek. (NOAA NHC)
Invest 90L, our first “area of investigation” this season won’t be winning any hurricane look-a-like contests, but conditions may briefly be favorable for a burst of quick development before it launches out to sea. There is zero threat to land from 90L. It’s more of a curiosity than anything.
Invest 90L has a slight chance to develop before Tuesday. If it misses the window, it’s unlikely to do so. (Weathernerds.org)
This one would firmly fall into the stat padding category for the season should it develop, though it would contribute virtually nothing to the overall depiction of the season beyond perhaps a name off the board. But it’s a sign that even in a generally unfavorable overall pattern, something can still spin up.
Rest of this week in the tropics
Quiet. There’s no sign that the overarching dominant pattern of “hostile” will change anytime soon. The medium range models which go out 10 to 14 days generally look quiet as well. We do expect the Pacific to continue somewhat active with another system likely later this week. But for the Atlantic, the best you’ll get out of this pattern in all likelihood is something either like we see in the North Atlantic right now, or some currently un-forecast complex of thunderstorms that ends up in the Gulf or off the Southeast coast. Good news for those of us that want calm.
Heat bakes on
The Eastern U.S. heatwave is going to continue onward. Some notable numbers from this weekend: Prior to Saturday, only 31 nights on record in Minneapolis had failed to drop below 80 degrees. Saturday was 32 and Sunday was 33. Sunday’s 82 degrees ties for the fourth warmest low temperature on record and first time since the Dust Bowl era that Minneapolis has been so warm at night. Yesterday was also the first time since 2019 that Chicago failed to drop below 80 degrees.
Heading into the next couple days, the heat will begin to peak in the Eastern U.S., with numerous records likely to be threatened or fall. The most impressive on the list below for some selected major cities is probably the 1888 record in New York City that should fall tomorrow or the 1923 record in Philly.
Whatever the case, there is a massive swath of the country under heat advisories and warnings. Models continue to suggest that upper level “heights” in the atmosphere have a fairly decent chance at breaking all-time records in parts of Virginia based on the historical data we have. And there’s a very good chance they’ll be setting new June records. Heights can help us determine the intensity of a ridge or trough in the atmosphere. The higher the values, the stronger the heat can be this time of year.
European ensemble model depiction of probability that 500 mb heights set annual records on Monday afternoon. (Polarwx.com)
The good news is that as the week progresses, the ridge should break down, slowly. This will accelerate over the weekend and next week, allowing heat to rebuild in places to the west, like the Plains and Texas and possibly Southwest.
Southwest flooding risk
This pattern setup is allowing for a feed of monsoonal moisture from the Pacific into New Mexico and parts of West Texas. This, combined with a number of favorable factors for significant rain is likely to put a pretty substantial flooding risk into New Mexico and perhaps portions of western Texas tomorrow.
(NWS Albuquerque)
Burn scar flooding and mudslide risk is a major concern in New Mexico. But all forms of flooding look to be in high supply tomorrow. Conditions should ease up some in the back half of the week.
Total expected rainfall through midweek in New Mexico. (Pivotal Weather)
