Francine exits as attention shifts to a bunch of middling Atlantic action

Headlines

  • Francine will likely produce flash flooding, particularly in Alabama and Tennessee over the next couple days.
  • We recap Francine below with info on how AI modeling did and why New Orleans saw worse conditions than expected earlier in the day.
  • The Atlantic looks more active than it actually is, with two invests that should not develop and one depression that may become a named storm and stay out at sea.
  • A subtropical or tropical system may form off the Southeast coast next week.

Thanks to folks in Louisiana that followed along with us through Francine, and we hope you’ll spread the word and stick with us. We did experiment with a new format yesterday by updating the AM post instead of pushing new posts all day. Any feedback is appreciated.

Francine recap

With Francine down to depression status and dissipating, I want to just point out a couple odds and ends related to the storm.

Current forecast

The rainfall forecast for the rest of the week is pretty stout in the Southeast, with as much as 6 to 8 inches of rain possible across portions of Alabama and Tennessee.

Rainfall over the next 3 days from Francine’s remnants could drop as much as 6 to 8 inches or more across Alabama and portions of Tennessee, leading to flash flooding. (NOAA WPC)

Flash flooding and localized severe weather will be the primary impacts of Francine’s remnants over the interior. A good idea to remain weather aware, particularly between Birmingham and Huntsville due to flooding.

AI modeling & ICON scores a big win

I went through and assessed the 15 model runs leading up to landfall from various models with Francine. Keep in mind that the landfall point is not the only variable that matters, but it’s an important one. And one thing you cannot tolerate as a forecaster is a lot of whipping around within the models. Enter the European AI model, the AIFS. Here are the 15 runs leading up to landfall with Francine:

AIFS model 15 runs leading up to landfall with Francine. (Tropical Tidbits)

This is a remarkable feat of stability. The AIFS showed landfall between Vermilion Bay and Grand Isle run after run after run. Ultimately, it came in on the eastern half of that spread, but the consistency was some of the best I have ever seen with respect to a tropical system. The timing and intensity bounced around a bit, but not so much as to make the tool useless. It had immense value, and it’s one of the reasons we were very bullish about this not being a serious Texas concern. This was a lesson learned from Beryl. And not to be outdone, the ICON also showed a healthy amount of stability run to run in terms of track.

ICON model for 15 runs leading up to landfall with Francine. (Tropical Tidbits)

While the ICON kept western Louisiana in play for a while, it too corrected east in time. This, combined with its performance during Beryl (as well as last week with Invest 90L) made it another valuable tool. Will these models fail in the future? Yes, all models do. And the ICON remains prone to spurious tropical systems that never end up happening. But at this point, I think there’s a lesson to be taken from this as a meteorologist. particularly when the models show this sort of stability. The GFS and Euro operational model (and the ensemble guidance) also performed respectably, but those models showed less consistency run to run than did the ICON and AIFS.

Last minute lurch to New Orleans

In yesterday’s morning post, we noted the forecast for New Orleans showed maximum wind gusts forecast to be 57 mph. They gusted to 78 mph. The reason was twofold. First, the storm had a quick late burst of intensification (in the face of wind shear no less) on approach to landfall. This led to an eastward shift at the last minute. Instead of coming in right at Atchafalaya Bay, it came in a more of a slanted angle just east of there. This, coupled with the stronger intensity pushed the eyewall into the New Orleans metro area leading to wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph. Hurricane forecasting remains imperfect.

Of note, thus far the highest wind gust I have seen is 96 mph in Dulac, LA. There were two 100 mph gusts south of Burns Point, LA, but those I believe were on elevated oil platforms which would have higher winds than at surface level. The highest rain total was in Mandeville, at just over 9 inches. New Orleans saw over 8 inches in the city. Officially, they reported 7.33 inches at the airport, the 9th wettest day on record there.

Atlantic action amplifies

Turning our attention back to current matters, let’s take a look at the Atlantic this afternoon.

It’s less busy than it looks, really. (NOAA NHC)

There are two invest, a tropical depression, and an area to watch in the Atlantic today. We’ll cover the area to watch below. But in the meantime, Invests 92L and 94L just east of the Caribbean are not really of any concern. Those should dissipate before acquiring the ability to develop. So nothing to see here right now.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 7 will probably make an attempt to become Tropical Storm Gordon, which somehow hasn’t been retired, despite being used since 1994 in perhaps its most memorable iteration. But Gordo will probably remain out at sea.

TD 7/future Gordon’s track. (NOAA NHC)

Otherwise, the Atlantic is quiet for now.

Southeast system next week?

Things may get interesting next week, to an extent, off the Southeast coast as a remnant cold front could help spawn a disturbance off the Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina coast.

This morning’s GFS model shows a disturbance off the Carolina coast as early as Friday night. (Tropical Tidbits)

Exactly how this evolves is a bit tricky since remnant fronts tend to be a little difficult to exactly predict. But in general, watch for a disturbance to form off the Southeast coast. Because it’s forming from a front, it would probably be non-tropical or “subtropical” in nature. It may have some time to develop into a tropical system over the Southeast coast’s warm waters early next week before likely coming ashore somewhere in the Carolinas. Intensity-wise, it’s a bit early to get too cutesy, but this would probably be slow to organize and develop, so it would probably be a tropical storm at most. But regardless, watch for heavy rain risk next week in the Southeast due to this system. More to come.

We will leave it there for now, but tomorrow we’ll talk a bit more about the longer-range and why things may start getting busy again by the end of September.

Hurricane Francine on initial approach to Louisiana this morning (UPDATED 9 PM)

9 PM CT Update: Severe flash flooding is ongoing in the New Orleans metro area. There is a flash flood emergency posted for portions of Orleans, St John the Baptist, St Charles, and Jefferson Parishes. The NSSL’s MRMS tool is useful because you can quickly see areas where excessive rainfall is likely occurring or has just occurred by using the CREST product. Blue and white coloring is about as bad as it gets.

(NOAA MRMS)

And that’s what we have over the western portions of the New Orleans metro area and south shore of Lake Pontchartrain right now. The flash flood emergency goes until 11:45 PM CT. Some videos I’ve seen circulating on social media show some pretty wicked flooding ongoing due to the rainfall. Shelter in place until things settle down. The good news is that the worst of the rain is exiting, but it will take some time for all the water to flush through the system. Flash flooding concerns will expand to the Northshore and into Mississippi.

(RadarScope)

Francine is down to 75 mph as of the 8 PM position report and should be at tropical storm strength with the next advisory. That said, winds are still gusting to 60 mph in the New Orleans area and even 64 mph back west toward Donaldsonville. Almost 300,000 customers are without power now.

This will be our last regular update of the evening. We’ll have a full recap and post on what else is going on in the tropics tomorrow morning. Thanks for following along! -Matt

7 PM CT Update: We’ve seen wind gusts up and over 60 mph now on the southwest side of the New Orleans metro area. Entergy is currently reporting about 125,000 customers without power right now. According to poweroutage.us, there are about 140,000 out statewide. Radar as of 7 PM shows intense rainfall occurring just southwest of New Orleans, along Highway 90 moving into St. Charles Parish. Intense rainfall will move into metro New Orleans over the next hour or so.

(RadarScope)

Francine’s winds are down to 85 mph, with continued weakening expected through the night.

5:30 PM CT Update: Francine has made landfall this evening in Terrebonne Parish south southwest of Morgan City as a category 2 hurricane. The storm is moving inland now, and it appears that it is tracking a bit east of where it was expected to go. The northeast portion of the eyewall is about to move into New Orleans. We’ve seen wind gusts mostly in the 50 to 65 mph range with this areas as it comes northeast, but it will get a bit nasty in New Orleans over the next hour or two.

(RadarScope)

The highest wind gust I found was 105 mph near Eugene Island in Atchafalaya Bay. Heavy rainfall is occurring with this as well as it comes northeastward, leading to a few flash flood warnings southwest of New Orleans. These will likely expand northeast in time as well. Hunker down in southeast Louisiana and the New Orleans area for the next few hours.

4 PM CT Update: Francine is now a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph.

3:30 PM CT Update

Francine was about 60 miles SSW of Morgan City, LA and approaching the coast with its eyewall.

The eyewall of Francine approaching Morgan City and Houma, LA. (RadarScope)

Conditions will rapidly deteriorate as this area moves ashore. The eyewall contains the strongest winds of the storm, so look for wind gusts to kick up in the area around Morgan City, Houma, and elsewhere in southern Louisiana soon.

Wind gusts have hit as high as 70 mph near Eugene Island, LA. New Orleans is in the 40s to near 50 mph now. Offshore oil platforms have registered 100 mph, but given their elevation, it is likely that those winds are a decent bit lower at ground level on land.

Wind gusts as high as 70 mph have occurred in far southern Louisiana. Winds in New Orleans have gusted close to 50 mph. (NOAA)

Francine is moving off to the northeast, if not east-northeast around 17 mph, and it should make landfall within the next 90 minutes to 2 hours, probably just south of Houma. It will then steadily weaken as it moves inland. That said, the eyewall will come close to the New Orleans area, so winds may ramp up there further in about 2 hours.

1 PM CT Update: Tropical Storm warnings dropped west of Cameron, LA

12:30 PM CT Update

Hurricane Francine continues to approach the Louisiana coast this afternoon.

Francine’s en route to the Louisiana coast near the Atchafalaya Basin (College of DuPage)

Thus far, wind gust reports have been relatively pedestrian with only 30 to 40 mph reports on the immediate coast. Oil platforms offshore are elevated and poor barometers of surface winds, but some of those have seen 80 to 100 mph gusts at times, so Francine remains capable of producing some pretty nasty wind. Still, it’s tough to not notice that it’s struggling somewhat due to dry air and shear. So hopefully the outcomes will be manageable, given the situation.

Peak wind gusts so far today have maxed out around 30 to 40 mph in portions of southern and southeast Louisiana. These will increase in the coming hours. (NOAA)

Conditions will continue to deteriorate across southern and southeast Louisiana this afternoon, so it’s probably a good idea to get where you want to be during the storm very soon and stay there til it passes tonight.

10 AM CT Update

No major changes in track or intensity with the 10 AM update from NHC. Francine is stated to have an open eyewall, as it’s beginning to feel some of the significant wind shear on the Gulf Coast. While Francine will remain a significant, dangerous storm, its intensity may have peaked now.

Francine’s eyewall showing up at the bottom of the Lake Charles radar image this morning. (Weathernerds.org)

Francine is still on track for a landfall near the Atchafalaya Delta or just east late this afternoon or early this evening.

Our previous post from 7 AM follows below:

Headlines

  • Francine make its initial approach to the Louisiana coast as a high-end category 1 hurricane.
  • Francine will make landfall late this afternoon or evening, likely between the Atchafalaya Delta and Port Fourchon.
  • Significant wind and surge issues are likely at the coast with lesser impacts inland but tropical storm force winds and power outages a good bet between Lafayette and coastal Mississippi.
  • 4 to 8 inches of rain expected in Louisiana and southern Mississippi with flash flooding likely in spots.
  • Francine will slam on the brakes near Memphis but should basically just die off in place with scattered rains the rest of this week across the Southeast.
4 AM CT advisory, warnings, and track. (NOAA NHC)

Francine now

Hurricane Francine has 90 mph maximum sustained winds this morning, as it did some work overnight to get more organized. It has a few hours left to gain some more intensity before it runs into dry air and wind shear that will likely take its toll on the storm.

Hurricane Francine is not the most well-organized storm we’ve ever seen, but it did some work putting itself together overnight. (Tropical Tidbits)

Francine’s outer rain shield has pushed ashore, mainly south of I-10 in Louisiana so far. Rain will continue to spread inland today.

Francine’s forecast and impacts

As of the 4 AM CT advisory, Francine was moving northeast at 10 mph. This speed should pick up some through the day. On its current track, a landfall between the Atchafalaya Delta and Port Fourchon seems most likely. That should occur late this afternoon or evening. As noted, rain has begun to overspread Louisiana, mainly east of Cameron and Lake Charles, and that will continue today. Rain totals of 4 to 8 inches in the Atchafalaya Basin and into parts of Mississippi. Rainfall will be 4 to 6 inches in New Orleans east to the Florida Panhandle.

The rain forecast for Francine shows peak totals west of New Orleans. (NOAA WPC)

Flash flooding is likely in spots, and the Weather Prediction Center has a moderate risk (level 3 of 4) for flash flooding risk in much of southeastern Louisiana and portions of southern Mississippi.

A moderate risk of flash flooding (level 3/4) is in place for eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi today. (NOAA WPC)

In addition to excessive rainfall, we expect to see isolated tornadoes today, and a slight risk (level 2/5) for severe storms exists in eastern Louisiana, extending east to the Florida Panhandle.

In terms of wind, the highest risk will be right at the coast, obviously. As you push inland, we’ll see hurricane-force wind risk extend into Morgan City, Houma, and perhaps extreme southwest portions of the New Orleans metro. New Orleans proper should see moderate to high-end tropical storm force winds, as will Baton Rouge, perhaps Lafayette, and up into portions of southern Mississippi.

Wind risk is highest on the immediate coast near landfall with hurricane force winds extending into portions of southern Louisiana, mainly south and southwest of Baton Rouge and New Orleans respectively. (NOAA NWS)

As we did yesterday, here are the current forecast maximum wind gusts as of 6:45 CT based on official National Weather Service forecasts.

Lake Charles: 36 mph
Lafayette: 49 mph
Baton Rouge: 51 mph
Port Fourchon: 67 mph
New Orleans: 57 mph
Morgan City: 87 mph
Houma: 67 mph
Gulfport: 62 mph
Natchez: 38 mph
Vicksburg: 38 mph
Jackson, MS: 40 mph
Mobile, AL: 37 mph

Storm surge will continue to be an issue as well with 5 to 10 foot surge expected on the Louisiana coast between Vermilion Bay and Port Fourchon. While the surge drops off east of there, it remains fairly substantial all the way to the Florida border, including a 2 to 4 foot surge in Mobile and 4 to 6 foot surge in Mississippi and in Lake Pontchartrain.

Storm surge will be at maximum between Vermilion Bay and Port Fourchon at 5 to 10 feet. Lake Pontchartrain should see a 4 to 6 foot surge. (NOAA NHC)

Beyond the coast, Francine will accelerate north into Mississippi, but it will slam on the brakes (as a non-tropical storm) just south or west of Memphis. As it just sort of sits, spins, and dies off, periods of scattered showers and storms will impact parts of the Southeast through the rest of the week off and on. No serious flooding is expected at this time, but it’ll be a good idea to keep tabs on things in Georgia, Tennessee, and Alabama perhaps heading into the weekend.

No other land concerns in the tropics right now. We’ll have another update before evening today.

New Orleans under a hurricane watch as Francine strengthens and nears central Louisiana coast

Headlines

  • As of 7 pm CT, Francine has become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico with 75 mph sustained winds
  • The storm will likely make landfall as a Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane on Wednesday afternoon near Morgan City or Houma
  • The center of the storm will likely pass between Baton Rouge and New Orleans, bringing its strongest core of winds there and to the east
  • New Orleans should fall on the right side of the storm, facing the most significant storm surge from Francine

Francine status

At 7 pm CT Tuesday evening, Francine was moving to the northeast at 10 mph. The hurricane has seen both its winds increase as well as its central pressure fall to 982 millibars. The later pressure fall is an indication that further strengthening is possible during the next 16 to 20 hours before Francine reaches the Louisiana coastline.

The European model brings the center of Francine near New Orleans, and place its strongest winds over the city. (Weather Bell)

Confidence is high in the track forecast for Francine, with all of our best available models in agreement that the center will come ashore and then likely split the difference between Baton Rouge and New Orleans. While some minor track changes are possible, at this late hour they are likely to be modest. In terms of intensity, most of our guidance points to a Category 1 or 2 hurricane. However, our confidence in intensity at landfall is lower than the track forecast.

Given all of this, a hurricane warning is in effect for the Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle. A hurricane watch is in effect for Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including the New Orleans metro area.

Francine impacts

The hurricane will bring all three major components of storm damage to southern Louisiana: high winds, inland rainfall, and storm surge. Staring with winds, it is likely that the core of strongest winds will now pass near, or even directly over the New Orleans area. This map of maximum wind gusts from this evening’s run of the European model gives an indication of where the strongest winds will occur.

Maximum wind gusts from Francine as forecast by the 18z European model. (Weather Bell)

In terms of rainfall, the heavier rains may fall a bit west of New Orleans, which would help with flooding issues in the city. Nevertheless, predicting precisely where the most intense rainfall will occur during a hurricane is an impossible task. The only good news I can offer is that Francine will have a healthy forward motion, and will be exiting the area to the north by late Wednesday night. This should help provide an upper limit on inland rainfall and associated flooding.

NOAA rainfall accumulation forecast for now through Friday. (Weather Bell)

The following storm surge map is based on the National Hurricane Center’s forecast, issued at 4 pm CT on Monday. I would expect the surge levels for the Mouth of the Mississippi River and Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain to increase a bit in subsequent forecasts. However, these do not appear to be surge levels that will promote catastrophic flooding in the New Orleans metro area.

NOAA storm surge forecast for Hurricane Francine. (National Hurricane Center

In summary, this certainly will not be the worst hurricane to ever strike the Louisiana coast. However, even Category 1 storms are unpleasant. Wednesday and Wednesday night will be a time to take shelter in the region.

We will have a comprehensive update on Hurricane Francine early Wednesday morning.

Francine starting to organize and turn NNE toward Louisiana, with a slight eastward adjustment today

Headlines

  • Francine is slowly organizing itself today and has turned NNE off the coast of Mexico.
  • The storm is expected to become a hurricane tonight as it tracks toward Louisiana.
  • There has been a minor eastward adjustment to the track forecast today, bringing it in on the east side of the Atchafalaya Basin.
  • Watches and warnings were extended east to Mississippi and Alabama today.
  • Storm surge predictions have nudged up a hair in eastern Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain but remain at a 5 to 10 foot peak in central Louisiana.
  • Rain will cause areas of flash flooding across Louisiana and Mississippi in particular tomorrow.
  • Isolated tornadoes are possible from Acadiana through the western Florida Panhandle tomorrow.
  • No other areas of concern to land right now in the tropics.
(NOAA NHC)

Francine now & intensity outlook

After a night of struggles, Francine is putting itself back together today and appears to be on the upswing. Satellite imagery shows a developing core that has eradicated a lot of the dry air that was inhibiting organization overnight.

Francine’s core is beginning to better organize this morning and steady intensification is expected over the next 18 to 24 hours. (Weathernerds.org)

If you look at that loop above, you may be confused by “two” areas of storms. The northern most one is connected. I’m speculating that it may be a predecessor rain event (PRE) due to jet stream interaction downstream of the storm itself. What you should focus on in terms of judging the storm is the core off the coast of northern Mexico, and that’s what’s gradually picking up today. I will say, there is ample dry air over Texas and the Deep South that could continue to impact Francine in some capacity. If the core can close off from this, it has a 12 to 18 hour window to perhaps rapidly intensify before that dry air almost certainly gets involved once more.

European model view of mid-level moisture over the Southern Plains shows Francine likely continuing to pull in some dry air which could limit intensification a bit. (Tropical Tidbits)

In addition, Francine will encounter a wall of wind shear on the Gulf Coast that will help to weaken it quickly once inland. I don’t want to minimize impacts at all, but this will have some challenges in front of it.

So, expect Francine to become a hurricane later today or tonight. It has some chance to get to category 2 intensity, but it is likely to come ashore as a stout category 1. Either way, we’re sort of nitpicking at this point. Landfall is expected to occur tomorrow afternoon with impacts beginning in earnest later in the overnight.

Francine’s track

The forecast track of Francine takes it on a beeline toward Louisiana. There has been some movement to the east this morning in the model guidance which brings it more toward Atchafalaya Bay. Some models even bring it as far east as Houma or Port Fourchon. As a result, tropical storm watches and warnings have been extended east into Mississippi and Alabama now. More on the winds in certain places below.

Francine’s impacts

We continue to see storm surge risk from Francine peaking between Port Fourchon and Grand Chenier at 5 to 10 feet. With the latest forecast update, the surge has been revised upward to the east somewhat, with 3 to 5 feet now in Lake Pontchartrain and along the Mississippi coast. Surge of 4 to 7 feet is expected near Grand Isle to the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Storm surge reasonable peak forecast above ground level. (NOAA NHC)

The rainfall forecast likewise has been adjusted eastward some. We now expect around 2 inches in Lake Charles to as much as 8 to 12 inches in the bays and coast of the Atchafalaya Basin. As much as 6 to 8 inches may fall between Lafayette and Gulfport northward a bit. Flash flooding is possible across southern Mississippi as well. Moderate (level 3/4) risks for excessive rainfall exist in much of those areas near where the storm comes ashore tomorrow.

Rain totals will be highest in the Atchafalaya Basin east into southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. (NOAA WPC)

Here’s a revised version of the maximum forecast wind gusts by location today based on currently available NWS forecasts, subject to change:

Houston: 25 mph
Galveston: 31 mph
Beaumont: 25 mph
Port Arthur: 37 mph
Lake Charles: 39 mph
Lafayette: 47 mph
Baton Rouge: 95 mph
Port Fourchon: 55 mph
New Orleans: 45 mph
Gulfport: 45 mph
Natchez: 36 mph
Vicksburg: 32 mph
Jackson, MS: 40 mph
Mobile, AL: 32 mph

The Baton Rouge value is because the storm is expected to pass very near there (the only major city on this list to see that) so gusts of category 1 intensity seem reasonable. This will likely cause some substantial power outages across that region between New Orleans and Lafayette. The drop off in wind to the north of there may be significant, with much less in the way of wind impacts north of I-10/I-12 than south of there.

Isolated tornado risk is a safe bet across much of eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and perhaps southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. The region is in a slight (level 2/5) risk of severe weather tomorrow.

A slight risk (level 2/5) is posted from Acadiana through the western Florida Panhandle for severe weather tomorrow due to isolated tornado risk. (NOAA SPC)

Other Francine notes

Houston: For our Houston readers, please see Space City Weather for the latest. There should be no meaningful impacts in the area.

Lower Rio Grande Valley: Heavy rain led to some localized flash flooding issues east of Brownsville to the coast this morning. Rain totals of 2 to 6 inches were estimated by radar.

Rain totals as high as 6 inches or so were estimated by radar at the mouth of the Rio Grande. (NOAA MRMS)

Additional rain may fall today but the worst of the flooding threat should be over here now.

New Orleans: City officials are advising residents to shelter in place during the storm overnight and tomorrow. Significant flooding impacts should not be a serious concern, but localized flooding will likely occur around the city and metro area. Follow local officials in southeast Louisiana and NOLA Ready for the latest local information.

Elsewhere in the tropics

We haven’t been ignoring the rest of the tropical Atlantic, but there’s not a lot to worry over right now. Invest 92L has about a 40 percent chance of developing over the next few days, which is down somewhat. The next area to watch east of there is up to 70 percent over the next week, and there is decent model support for something that may head out to sea.

Tropical development is becoming less likely with Invest 92L, while the area east of there is up to a 70 percent chance. (NOAA NHC)

Otherwise, models are generally unenthused with any areas over the next week or so. It does appear conditions are slowly becoming more conducive for tropical activity late in September. It probably would be a time to watch the Caribbean for any threats. But we’re a long way off from that right now.

Our next update will again be this evening before 9 PM CT with the latest on Francine.