Painfully slow-moving Melissa on the verge of becoming a hurricane this morning

In brief: Melissa is on the cusp of hurricane intensity this morning as it continues to track west at a painfully slow rate of speed. Forecasts now favor a major storm turning north closer to Jamaica, which may lead to a direct hit on the island. Regardless, catastrophic rainfall will impact communities in southwest Dominican Republic, Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula, eastern Jamaica, and portions of southeast Cuba before Melissa exits into the Atlantic next week.

Melissa almost a hurricane

(NOAA/NHC)

Since yesterday, Melissa has continued to get its act together, and as of earlier this morning, the storm was very near hurricane intensity. It should get there sometime today.

Melissa has become much better organized and is beginning to feed off the exceptionally warm water residing under the storm. (Tropical Tidbits)

At times, an “eye” has tried to emerge as well, so Melissa has shrugged off most of what was ailing it earlier this week.

Melissa’s perilous track & strength

Because of the excruciatingly slow movement of Melissa, a couple changes have occurred today in the track forecast. First, most modeling now turns Melissa northward from due south of Jamaica. This means the odds of a direct hit on Jamaica by a major hurricane are now high, in addition to the several days of tropical storm conditions and torrential rain that will precede the worst of the storm. Even for a hurricane battle tested location, this will be a pushing limits of what is tolerable.

Virtually all Google Deep Mind ensemble members turn Melissa directly into Jamaica this upcoming week on its way out of the Caribbean. (Weathernerds.org)

Once past Jamaica, Melissa will likely make landfall in eastern Cuba, before tracking over either the southeast Bahamas or Turks and Caicos Islands. The islands south and east of about Exumas are probably at highest risk for severe impacts right now. From there, Melissa hauls out to sea, though folks in Bermuda should now be watching Melissa’s progress closely (though it will certainly be a less intense storm once that far north).

Over 80 percent of Google’s Deep Mind ensemble members bring Melissa to Cat 4 or 5 intensity, with some of the better performing overall hurricane models and consensus aides, firmly in the category 4 camp right now. Whether it is a 3, 4, or 5, the odds favor it being a major hurricane and perhaps a higher-end major at that as it barrels into Jamaica and Cuba. The storm should begin to weaken beyond Cuba due to land interaction and a more hostile overall environment. But even in the Bahamas, we could still be looking at a borderline major hurricane.

Powerful storm surge is likely in Jamaica and eastern Cuba as Melissa turns northward next week.

Catastrophic rainfall

Despite the intensity of the hurricane, the hallmark of this storm may well be how much rain falls, with totals of 30 inches or more possible in southwest Haiti and eastern Jamaica. Given how explosive the thunderstorms are east of the center, day after day of rain is likely in these areas.

Obscene amounts of rain are likely across Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula and in eastern Jamaica. (NOAA/WPC)

It is not hyperbole to say that this amount of rain will be catastrophic for these areas. Landslides, mudslides, and isolation for several days will all be likely in some communities. Those 30 inch (750mm) totals will be isolated in all likelihood and terrain driven. But the entire eastern half of Jamaica should see at least 10 inches of rain (250mm), which will cause widespread problems.

Don’t forget about southeast Cuba (easily could see 15 inches of rain (375mm) and southwest Dominican Republic which could see upwards of 20 inches (500mm). We are talking about a widespread flooding event across several different countries in the Caribbean.

Bottom line today

  • A major hurricane, quite possibly a high-end major hurricane will probably directly hit Jamaica by Monday night.
  • The storm will then make a direct hit on Cuba as a powerful hurricane and track through the southeast Bahamas as a borderline major hurricane.
  • Bermuda should be monitoring the future track forecast of Melissa.
  • Catastrophic rainfall will impact Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and southeast Cuba with upwards of 30 inches in a few spots. Mudslides, landslides, and complete isolation of some villages are all likely.
  • In many cases, severe flash flooding will commence 24 to 48 hours before the core of the storm hits in Jamaica and Cuba.
  • Along and near where Melissa tracks, significant storm surge is likely.

We continue to send our thoughts to these Caribbean communities that will be dealt another in a long history of bad storms.

Melissa’s forecast remains mostly unchanged and ominous for Haiti, Jamaica, and parts of Cuba

In brief: Tropical Storm Melissa’s forecast has undergone mostly cosmetic changes this morning. A damaging, severe hurricane with wide-ranging impacts in Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is likely. We continue to be focused on heavy rainfall and multiple days of hurricane impacts in very vulnerable locations. But the story is mostly unchanged today.

Melissa this morning

(NOAA/NHC)

Changes since yesterday have included Melissa’s center either shifting or reforming to the south and east. The storm itself remains fairly disorganized and lower-end intensity-wise.

Melissa remains a mess this morning. (Weathernerds.org)

Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph, but Melissa is expected to emerge in a more favorable area for intensification soon. We have about 24 hours more of these sloppy upper level conditions, with center drift or reformation possibly leading to an erratic, meandering track.

Where is Melissa headed?

After tomorrow, a general west drift will continue through Tuesday. From there, Melissa will finally have an escape path emerge, allowing it to turn north and northeast. Exactly where that occurs will determine where it tracks in relation to Jamaica and Cuba. It will be a major hurricane at that point, so wide ranging impacts from surge to torrential rain, high seas, and obviously wind will be a concern. The NHC track above represents a close mix of the historically well-performing consensus track forecast, as well as the strong performing Google Deep Mind model.

There is still a fair bit of uncertainty in the exact track of Melissa due to its present disorganization, but in general a track around Jamaica and into eastern Cuba will be likely. (Tropical Tidbits)

The track spread has narrowed since yesterday, though it remains broad and highly sensitive for potential landfall risks in Jamaica and Cuba, as well as downstream into the southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos. And with a center that seems vulnerable to reformation over the next 24 hours, this whole spread could shift a bit in either direction over the next 24 hours.

But the bottom line, this storm is going to produce significant, high-end impacts in Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti and parts of the southeast Bahamas and Turks & Caicos Islands.

How strong will Melissa get?

The NHC shows Melissa eventually becoming a high-end category 4 hurricane by Tuesday. Depending on exactly where the center tracks and how much the shear relaxes will determine how quickly Melissa can undergo transformation from ordinary to extraordinary.

The intensity spread remains wide, but the best performing models historically seem to be Cat 2 and above. (Tropical Tidbits)

Notably, the NHC said in their discussion this morning that every Google Deep Mind ensemble member is showing a Cat 4 or 5 intensity. Basically, expect at least a major hurricane, probably a high-end major hurricane.

The rainfall story continues to look bad

Rain totals are expected to pile up in Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba over the next several days into Tuesday or Wednesday. So we have about 24 hours or so more beyond the forecast below. I would expect numerous 20 inch totals in southern Haiti, parts of Jamaica, and perhaps 10 to 15 inches or more in southeast Cuba.

Rain totals for the next 72 hours. (NOAA WPC)

About 5 to 10 inches will fall in the southeast Bahamas and/or Turks and Caicos Islands by the time all is said and done. 20 inch totals in Haiti and/or Jamaica will be potentially catastrophic. The problem continues to be a slow-moving major hurricane in close proximity to Jamaica. Several days of strong winds and torrential rain and pounding surf. It’s just a very bad story. I am sure folks in these areas, while hurricane hardy and prepared for this storm, will be severely impacted. Please make sure any relatives or friends you have in these areas are monitoring this and doing whatever they can to get to a safe, sturdy shelter and location for several days.

We’ll have another update on Melissa this evening.

Melissa continues to look like a slow-moving disaster for parts of the Caribbean

In brief: Melissa will struggle for another day or so before it likely explodes into a major hurricane near Jamaica, yielding a lot of bad things. We are most troubled by the flooding potential in Haiti, eastern Cuba, and Jamaica. Whatever the case, this is going to be a destructive, very bad storm for those locations.

(NOAA/NHC)

How Melissa should go from mess to might

Tropical Storm Melissa continues to oscillate in intensity today, now down to 45 mph maximum sustained winds. We figured it would be a slog at first, and it is just that.

Tropical Storm Melissa looking rather discombobulated on satellite this evening. (Weathernerds.org)

It is battling wind shear mightily at the moment, which is basically causing the storm to be tilted. The actual surface center is to the west of the thunderstorms, while the upper level center of the storm is located to the east of there. You can see on the animation below how the center of the system tilts with height from the surface to 20,000 feet up (500 mb level).

The center of Melissa is skewed with height to the east, indicative of strong wind shear. (Tropical Tidbits)

Strong wind shear will do that! Now, over the next 48 hours, that shear is going to diminish. This will allow the system to better vertically align. In fact, by Sunday, per the European model below, you can see how the surface, 5,000′ (850 mb), 10,000′ (700 mb), and 20,000′ (500 mb) centers are basically all atop each other rather than skewed to the east.

As wind shear relaxes, Melissa will become vertically “stacked” and rapid intensification should ensue. (Tropical Tidbits)

As Melissa vertically aligns, it will become stronger. And then the process will basically start a feedback loop, allowing Melissa to feast on a more pristine environment of low wind shear and incredibly warm water. The combination should allow for explicit rapid intensification of Melissa very near Jamaica. As this occurs, Melissa will become a powerful, extremely dangerous storm by Sunday or Monday.

How strong does Melissa get?

Much like the last few days, the sky is the limit with Melissa, as long as wind shear relaxes and it remains over water. With steering currents basically allowing Melissa to meander the next 18 to 36 hours, possibly northward, when they allow for a slow west drift late this weekend, it will depend on whether or not Melissa hugs the coast of Jamaica or remains offshore that will determine how strong it ultimately gets. Hurricane? Almost a guarantee. Major hurricane? Probably. Cat 4 or 5? Seems like a better than average risk. Consensus modeling puts it as a higher end category 3 storm, while Google Deep Mind and the HAFS model suite take it well into category 4 intensity. That’s where the NHC forecast sits right now, which makes a lot of sense given the environment.

Intensity forecasts run the gamut, but some of the best performing models this season indicate higher end category 3 or category 4 intensity by Sunday and Monday. (Tropical Tidbits)

It appears that Melissa’s intensity will peak in the 72 to 120 hour period, while the storm is in the Caribbean near, south, or just southwest of Jamaica. This also places it near or over the highest oceanic heat content in the basin, meaning it will be ideally situated for high-end intensification. The sky remains the limit, barring land interaction.

Catching Melissa’s Drift

As Melissa drifts westward thanks to basically collapsed steering currents and high pressure to the north gently nudging it to the west, it will remain in rather close proximity to Jamaica, likely lashing the island with hurricane conditions for perhaps 2 full days or more. This reminds me a little of how Dorian stopped moving near Great Abaco and Grand Bahama Island in 2019 as a category 5 storm. The terrain in Jamaica means that the proximity to land will dictate things a little more, but the general idea is that you’re going to have a massive storm at or near peak intensity in very close proximity to land, in this case Jamaica.

Eventually, as a trough digs into the Eastern U.S., it will begin to try to capture Melissa allowing it to turn northward and track toward Cuba. However, while this process begins after Tuesday, it probably won’t accelerate out to sea until Thursday. So it may take another day and a half to get from west of Jamaica to Cuba itself.

Ensemble means take Melissa close to the southeast coast of Cuba by early Wednesday. Trends have been to slow this down a bit since earlier this week. (Polarwx.com)

From there, Melissa will slowly exit, probably over the southeastern Bahamas and out to sea, hopefully closing the books on the 2025 hurricane season.

The flooding

Melissa is going to be a terrible storm. There are just no two ways about this. It’s going to be hour after hour of lashing. Even if that’s not at major hurricane intensity on land in Jamaica, it will be powerful. And it will rain. A ton. I’ve shown the forecast for rain, but unfortunately because Melissa is staying at the Residence Inn and not the Holiday Inn Express, 72 hours doesn’t cover the entire forecast. Here’s a look at the forecast from today’s European model. Keep in mind that these totals will vary a bit, and the exact totals will depend on the exact track, but for Jamaica, this is absolutely horrid.

European model rainfall totals range from 15 to 35 inches across Jamaica through next week. (Weathernerds.org)

Unfortunately, it’s tough to argue that these totals can’t be achieved. The slow movement and rapid intensification should allow for this to occur. Additionally, heavy rain is likely in eastern Cuba and southwest Haiti.

European model forecast for rain through next week across the Caribbean and Bahamas. (Weathernerds.org)

Perhaps 20 inches of rain could fall in those areas too. This seems increasingly likely to be a catastrophic rain and flooding event in addition to a very bad hurricane for Haiti, eastern Cuba, and Jamaica. Sometimes you just feel helpless when you look at things like this, knowing the message is clear, the uncertainty not terribly high, but the end result will still be terrible. Here’s hoping somehow it underperforms.

More tomorrow.

Melissa to torment portions of the Caribbean, especially parts of Jamaica, with days of heavy rain and potentially catastrophic flooding concerns

In brief: Just a quick update on Melissa this morning. A more comprehensive update will be posted this evening.

Melissa remains disorganized this morning, with max winds of 50 mph.

Melissa continues to struggle a bit, though continues to have deep thunderstorm activity. (Weathernerds.org)

There have been minimal track or intensity forecast changes since yesterday.

Melissa’s track brings it a little closer to Jamaica than yesterday’s forecasts. (NOAA/NHC)

The biggest change is perhaps tracking it a little closer to Jamaica by next week. Tropical Storm Warnings are now posted for Jamaica, with Hurricane Watches for both Jamaica and southwest Haiti. A major hurricane is expected by late this weekend.

The rainfall forecast for Melissa remains ominous, with 12 inches (300mm) or more possible through the weekend in Jamaica.

Melissa’s rainfall forecast through Sunday morning. Additional high-end rains will follow this. (NOAA WPC)

When you factor in that this rainfall forecast is through Sunday morning, and there will be at least a couple more days of torrential rain to follow, portions of Jamaica could be in line for 20 to 30 inches (500-750mm) of rainfall before all is said and done. It’s an extremely concerning situation, particularly given that tropical storm, if not hurricane conditions may accompany those rains much of the time. We urge the strongest precautions for folks in Jamaica with respect to flooding in particular, but also for tropical storm and hurricane conditions.

We’ll be back later today with more color on this.