Thanks to everyone who used our site in advance of Monday’s eclipse. Sunday was our highest traffic day since October. So we’re glad some of you sought us out or found us!
It’s now April 11th, which means the start of hurricane season is less than 2 months away. As we’ve discussed ad nauseum, it’s expected to be a very active season. With that in mind, barring a massive weather event between now and then, we’re going to take the foot off the gas a bit. We have a few things to address before the start of hurricane season, including changes to some of the tools and products this year, as well as the name list, among other things. We’ll push some posts out about that stuff over the next six weeks. You may have read about it elsewhere, but we intentionally opted to wait til we got closer to the season to discuss these things, when it becomes relevant.
In the meantime, please give us a follow on our primary social channels, feel free to subscribe to our emails (at right), and let us know if you have any questions:
Remember, our preparedness page has a ton of links to local sites that can help you with relevant, local information on getting ready ahead of hurricane season.
Today, we will cover the latest detailed eclipse outlook. Also, Dwight Silverman joins us to offer a virtual viewing guide to the eclipse if you’re unable to get to it or if you’re under clouds. There are some cool ways to engage with the event, as you’ll see!
Headlines
Cloud cover likely to obscure the eclipse in much of Texas and portions of western New York or northeast Ohio.
All other areas along the totality path have potential to see the eclipse in some capacity.
Best bets right now are probably Indianapolis, Sherbrooke, Quebec, or Caribou, Maine.
A full eclipse forecast from south to north
We’ll work south to north today to clue everyone in on the latest and greatest cloud forecasts as of this morning.
South Texas/Central Texas
For the Rio Grande Valley and much of south and central Texas, the trouble on Monday will be that all three cloud layers we tend to track will be likely to have clouds. There should be a blanket of high clouds, a healthy blanket of mid-level clouds, and at least scattered low clouds.
A mix of low, middle, and high level clouds will likely spoil the eclipse for the majority of South and Central Texas. (Tomer Burg)
The end result will be that the majority of people in the path have clouds for the eclipse. A select few (impossible to predict where) may, may end up with thin enough high clouds and a break in the mid-level and lower clouds that the eclipse could be visible. But I wouldn’t bank on that. Verdict: Disappointing.
North Texas
The forecast gets more difficult north and east of Austin, which is better news for North Texas. We know that high clouds will be in place. While that will impact eclipse viewing, in the right scenario, it could also make things more dramatic looking.
High clouds are likely and low clouds are a good possibility across North Texas, but there will likely be breaks in several spots that could allow for some dramatic eclipse viewing! (NWS Fort Worth)
The problem in North Texas will be lower clouds. The hope is that some of them will scour out in the late morning. But that’s an impossibility to predict, so you’ll be rolling the dice no matter what tomorrow. Still, your odds here are better than to the south. Verdict: Worth a shot.
Arkansas
While not perfect, Arkansas conditions look pretty decent right now. The southern part of the state will have the same struggles as North Texas, with some low clouds potentially spoiling the view. But as you come northward, the chances of seeing the eclipse with just some high clouds increases.
Conditions improve in Arkansas, especially from Little Rock northeastward. (Tomer Burg)
It’s especially good north and east of Little Rock and west of Memphis. Verdict: Maybe good!
Missouri, Illinois, and Kentucky
We’ve got mostly decent conditions expected in this area. High clouds are likely, but low and mid-level clouds are not.
Mostly favorable viewing is expected in the Missouri Bootheel, southern Illinois, and along the Ohio River. There will be patches of clouds around but hopefully not in any one place for too long. (Tomer Burg)
This should allow for a good view in most places, though you may need to maneuver just a little. Verdict: Mostly good!
Indiana and Ohio
Purdue in the national championship game, and minimal clouds for the eclipse? A little something for everyone in Indiana.
Conditions look good here now, with no significant issues expected. Ohio looks a little more mixed. Low level clouds may linger in Northeast Ohio, while high clouds persist elsewhere. Not a total loss, but there are some risks the farther northeast in Ohio you’ll be.
Western Ohio looks great, but conditions get trickier the closer you get to Cleveland or Erie, PA. (Tomer Burg)
Verdict: Great in Indiana & NW Ohio, very mixed in NE Ohio.
New York
Western New York will have some troubles I think, with cloud cover persisting. As you work toward the Tug Hill Plateau and North Country, things will improve.
Western NY may not have optimal conditions, and the eclipse may be obscured in spots. However, the Tug Hill Plateau and North Country/Adirondacks look good. (NWS Buffalo)
You probably want to go as far north and east as possible for the best viewing conditions, or at the least the best odds of them. Verdict: Good toward Lake Champlain, with increasing risks southwest.
Northern New England & Canada
High clouds will probably impact viewing (not enough to obscure it completely though) as you head into the northeast Adirondacks of New York and Burlington, VT.
Conditions will become significantly favorable as you head east of Burlington, VT. (NWS Burlington, VT)
As you head into Quebec and Maine and New Brunswick it looks spectacular. Clear skies win out.
Your winner will be the region between Montreal and Maine, into New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island (Tomer Burg)
We see few risks here, so if you’re setting up shop in Montreal, Sherbrooke, Caribou, or Houlton east into New Brunswick and PEI, you will have prime viewing. Clouds may begin to sneak in for Newfoundland or Labrador. Verdict: Yes, this is the place.
How to view the eclipse if it’s cloudy or you can’t travel
Most people won’t be traveling to see Monday’s eclipse or may be disappoint by clouds, so we turned to Dwight Silverman to show us how technology can come to the rescue if you want to participate.
There are plenty of ways to watch the eclipse unfold in real time via broadcast and cable TV as well as streaming, with many options tracking the eclipse across the U.S.
If you prefer your TV delivered through more traditional means, both over-the-air and cable news channels will cover it (expect lots of picture-in-picture views as other news is reported). And if you subscribe to a faux-cable package of channels such as Sling TV, YouTube TV, Fubo or Sling, you’ll be able to watch using the usual suspects on those platforms.
But some of the most interesting and science-geeky outlets will be specialty streamers, including the biggest kahuna of them all: NASA, which will have multiple options.
NASA-TV will be all in covering Monday’s solar eclipse on a multitude of platforms, including Apple TV, seen here. (Apple TV)
NASA-TV, the space agency’s classic public channel, will offer coverage through its apps on platforms such as Apple TV, Roku, Hulu, DirecTV, Dish Network, Google Fiber and Amazon Fire TV. If you don’t have the app or channel installed, you can pull it in from your platform’s app store.
Alternatively, there’s NASA’s new streaming initiative NASA+. Try the NASA+ web page, a YouTube channel, as well as NASA app for iOS and Android. (The iOS app will also work on Apple’s new Vision Pro mixed-reality headset, potentially making it appear as though the eclipse is floating right in front of you!)
Colorado State’s seasonal forecast for Atlantic hurricane season is their most active preseason forecast since they formally began this in the 1980s.
They call for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.
It would easily rank in the top 10 for most active seasons if it verifies.
Colorado State’s seasonal forecast at left, and what is normal at right. (Phil Klotzbach/CSU)
Why Colorado State?
Colorado State’s seasonal hurricane outlook is sort of a major highlight on the meteorology calendar for those of us who often deal with tropical weather. The first question I’m often asked is why on earth are we getting hurricane outlooks from Colorado State? Well, through the years, they’ve amassed a ton of research into tropical weather, beginning with Bill Gray, who began the process there in the 1970s. His research set the basis for a lot of what we understand about longer-term views on hurricanes and cycles of hurricanes. He just happened to work at CSU, and thus, they’re generally the leading experts.
Are they good at this?
They aren’t bad, and if anything, they’ve gotten a whole lot better over the years.
Colorado State’s verification metrics showing a major improvement in skill in the last 10 years with their April outlook, though still far from perfect. (Colorado State University)
What really stands out to me is how much their April forecasts have improved in the last decade. I remember 2006, the year following Katrina, Rita, Wilma, etc. and how everyone including CSU called for an active hurricane season again. And it busted pretty badly. Since then, we’ve added so many new tools and methods to look at this stuff, and thus we’re seeing the fruits of this realized in improved outlooks. Are they perfect? Absolutely not, but they’re skillful. Last year, they called for a slightly more active season despite an El Niño, which historically produces less active seasons. They were correct.
The risk of over $10 billion in normalized damage in the United States is over 50% during La Niña hurricane seasons. (Phil Klotzbach)
What does their forecast mean?
It adds to the growing body of evidence that the upcoming hurricane season is likely, if not highly likely to be quite active. Their forecast accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is over 200, which would constitute a “hyperactive” season and be the most intense since 2017 (Harvey, Irma, Maria, etc.). It confirms basically everything we’ve discussed this year in our monthly posts on hurricane season: The Atlantic is exceptionally warm, we are likely heading toward a La Niña this summer and fall, and the historical combination of these factors would likely produce an extremely active hurricane season, perhaps one that is more active closer to land than we’ve seen in the last couple seasons. As you see above, the odds of a multi-billion dollar season in terms of damage is much higher in La Niña years nationally. Though, do take note of the Gulf Coast risk being about unchanged. Given the current state of the insurance market, this is an obvious concern this year.
Sure, but what does their forecast mean for me?
Nothing specific right now. We have no way of knowing when, where, and what will hit this summer. We just have data that says it will probably be busy. What it should mean for you is that this is the time to prepare for the upcoming season. On our preparedness page above, we have links to a bunch of local emergency management pages across the country that can give you advice or tips more specific to your area. But at a high level: Have a plan, build a kit, and review documentation to make sure you’re up to date on insurance. Preparedness is a critical element during hurricane season. We’ve seen too many examples of people being on their own for a period of time after a disaster, so the more you do now to prepare, the better off you’ll be if this is the year.
As we zero in on Monday’s solar eclipse, we have one clear area emerging as probably the best for viewing. And one area remains the most pessimistic. The forecast remains fairly fluid elsewhere. We explain and tidy up the snow forecasts today into Friday below.
Headlines
Winter weather will continue impacting the western Great Lakes today, while snow gets going in New England later, lingering into tomorrow.
Watching some severe weather and fire weather potential this weekend.
Eclipse weather continues to look most favorable the farther north you go, with a solid bullseye between Plattsburgh, NY and Fredericton, NB.
Eclipse weather still looking best in the Northeast
Here’s our daily eclipse forecast check in. The biggest change today is that conditions look a little better for northern Arkansas, Missouri, and southern Illinois. Cloud cover probabilities have continued to drop some there.
Cloud cover forecasts have improved in Missouri and southern Illinois, where average cloud cover is forecast to be around 20 to 30 percent. (Tomer Burg)
Working from north to south: It still looks great in Canada, Maine, and back through Watertown, NY. Conditions get sketchier for western New York into the Midwest before likely improving some across Illinois and Missouri.
For those of you in Texas, the news remains pessimistic. The highest odds of low cloud coverage (the best conditions) are probably located near Dallas or Texarkana. As you back toward Austin, San Antonio, and the Rio Grande Valley, the cloud coverage is in the 60 to 80 percent range per forecast modeling right now.
Houlton, ME, Sherbrooke, Quebec, and Burlington, VT/Plattsburgh, NY look like the safest options today. This continues to evolve, so look for more updates tomorrow and Friday.
Quick weather hits
Thankfully, the higher-end portion of the tornado risk yesterday does not appear to have materialized. Kudos to the folks at the SPC for indicating in their discussion yesterday that it was rather conditional. If you read their discussion in the morning, you understood why they did what they did and why the forecast would (or would not) reach its potential. This is why we attempt to focus on facts not fear-mongering here. Is it sexy? No, but it works.
While there were a lot of storm reports yesterday, the higher end potential of the severe weather does not seem to have been realized, a risk clearly explained by the SPC in their discussion yesterday. (NOAA SPC)
Heavy snow will continue in the U.P. of Michigan, where Blizzard Warnings are in effect for Marquette. Snow totals of 1 to 2 feet for the higher terrain just south of Lake Superior are expected.
Blizzard warnings are in effect for portions of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, as heavy snow and wind hammer them through the evening. (NWS Marquette)
Snow continues to be on the way for Canada and New England. That develops this afternoon, and the snow total forecast has even increased a hair in spots in New England.
Snow totals in excess of 15 inches are likely in portions of Maine and New Hampshire, as well as in the Green Mountains in Vermont & northern Adirondacks in New York. (Pivotal Weather)
Look for that continue into Thursday before winding down. For southeastern Canada, expect a wide swath of 10 to 20 cm of snow from Sherbrooke and southern Quebec into the Ottawa River Valley back toward Sudbury, Ontario. Higher amounts will be possible there, in the Cape Breton Highlands, New Brunswick, the Gaspe Peninsula of Quebec and the north shore of the St. Lawrence, perhaps in excess of 25 cm.
Snow totals of 10 to 20 cm, with amounts in excess of 25 cm in spots are likely from portions of Ontario through southern Quebec and into New Brunswick, the Gaspe Peninsula, and Cape Breton Highlands. (Pivotal Weather)
In addition to heavy, wet snow, gusty winds will be likely, capable of producing sporadic power outages in this region. A major snowstorm for April.
Looking ahead, the next weather items to watch will be severe weather risk in the southern Plains on Saturday, along with some critical fire weather conditions in the Texas Panhandle and portions of New Mexico. More on that tomorrow or Friday.
