Sara should soon form, a significant late season threat to Honduras in particular and something for Florida to monitor closely

Headlines

• The Caribbean tropical wave is now Invest 99L and is likely to develop into a depression or Tropical Storm Sara in the next day or two.
• The system will come west and then slam on the brakes near Honduras. Much of what happens next depends on how close to the coast that stall occurs.
• A stall over or near the coast would likely lead to a weaker storm that turns north and northeast next week toward the Panhandle or Big Bend of Florida.
• A stall offshore of Honduras would likely lead to a stronger storm or potential major hurricane risk to the west coast of Florida next week.
• Both scenarios are likely to produce significant to potential devastating rain for portions of Honduras.
• Interests in Florida, the Yucatan, Belize, Honduras, and Nicaragua should monitor 99L’s progress closely.

Sara likely to stir up problems

Sara (spelled without an H) is likely to develop within the next 48 hours or so from Invest 99L in the Caribbean. This morning’s satellite view shows a disorganized but otherwise pretty potent little area of thunderstorms over the Caribbean. It’s at least showing nascent signs of organization, but it appears relatively lopsided. In other words, if there is a center, it’s on the northern edge of all the thunderstorms.

Over the next 48 hours, models are in good agreement that this will be slow to develop initially while moving west at a pretty steady clip. Once it gets near the coast of Honduras, the steering currents will force 99L or Sara to slam on the brakes.

This means one of two things. Either the storm will stall near land enough to not become a significant tropical system (though still a potentially major rainmaker) or the storm will stall over the Caribbean’s deep, warm water and rapidly intensify. Truthfully, neither scenario is particularly great. And in fact, modeling is in decent agreement on a major rain and flooding event potentially for Honduras. Current forecasts suggest 10 to 20 inches or more (400 to 600 mm) are possible over the next 5 days for the northern third of Honduras.

So, regardless of how much 99L or Sara develops through the weekend, this is going to deliver abundant rainfall to at least Honduras. Belize and Nicaragua should also monitor this closely in case things should change.

Models are in great agreement on this unfortunately with almost all the European ensemble’s 51 individual members showing low pressure stuck near the coast of Honduras through 96 hours. Again, in terms of how strong this gets, where that “stuck” point happens is critical, and that’s where the bulk of the uncertainty lies right now.

From here, almost everything will depend on where that stall occurs. At a high level, we know that Sara/99L is going to get picked up and carried north and then northeast by an autumn cold front that sweeps across the Gulf next week. So for folks in Texas and Louisiana, no worries with this. But for folks in Florida, this is very important. A storm that stalls offshore to the east and north of the Honduras coast and is allowed to intensify will likely turn north and northeast farther north and east, posing a potential major hurricane risk to the west coast of Florida. A storm that stalls near or on the coast of Honduras would not be as intense and would likely either get absorbed into the front next week or come north as a tropical storm into the Panhandle or Big Bend region of Florida. Much more manageable.

Unfortunately, it’s too soon to say which scenario is more likely. The timing is a little sketchy as well, but we’re probably looking at impacts to Florida, in whatever form Sara will be in around Tuesday or Wednesday next week.

Bottom line: Folks on the west coast of Florida must again remain vigilant for another storm unfortunately. Despite the calendar saying that it’s mid-November, the weather pattern thinks that it’s mid-October. You should also be viewing this way and start considering some preparations in Florida. If you have friends or family in Honduras, ensure that they’re aware of what’s coming. Central America flooding events can be utterly disastrous. This has that potential unfortunately.